The big 2014 Kent State football preview: The MAC Mad Libs team of the year

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Looking back up the hill

Each spring, I spend about three weeks previewing MAC teams. Inevitably we end up discussing the MAC life cycle, in which a once-downtrodden conference program is lifted up by a strong coach, who breaks through with a big year or a conference title, then either leaves or falters, leaving the school to start over again. Miami (Ohio) calls itself the Cradle of Coaches, but that really goes for the conference as a whole.

Money and prestige are equal for most MAC schools, and winning means recruiting the right low-two-star recruits (the ones destined for stardom, even if nobody knows it at the time), getting slightly ahead of the game tactically, and crafting a team that makes the fewest mistakes. The margin for error is minimal, both in terms of the execution on the field and the hiring of the right up-and-coming coach.

And as I inevitably say at least a couple of times each spring, a team's reward for making the right hire and winning some games is getting to make another hire. This year's MAC Life Cycle fill-in-the-blank gets filled in by the good folks in Kent, Ohio:

In [2011], [Kent State] hired [Darrell Hazell], who broke through in a way that previous coach [Doug Martin] could not. The [Golden Flashes] showed promise in [Hazell's] first year, then erupted in his second, starting the season [10-1] and reaching the MAC title game before they [lost to NIU]. [Hazell] was hired away by [Purdue], and the [Flashes] were forced to start over again, especially when stars [Dri Archer and Roosevelt Nix] graduated as well.

Sometimes you get lucky and find a replacement who is just as good. NIU is atop the MAC heap at the moment because the Huskies not only found Jerry Kill, but also found Dave Doeren to replace Kill and Rod Carey to replace Doeren. Now they have to replace ace quarterback Jordan Lynch as well. Toledo seems to have done a strong job in replacing Tim Beckman with young Matt Campbell.

Others aren't as lucky. CMU replaced Brian Kelly with Butch Jones and kept winning with star quarterback Dan LeFevour behind center, but Lefevour and Jones left, and Dan Enos has gone 19-30 in four seasons. Poor Miami (Ohio) found Mike Haywood to resurrect a flagging program, but he left after a second-year MAC title, and the RedHawks have gone 8-28 since. Ball State reached 12-1 with Brady Hoke, lost him to San Diego State and went 6-18 with Stan Parrish, then replaced him with Pete Lembo and won 19 games in 2012-13.

It's a roller coaster. And after a thrilling 2012 campaign, the Golden Flashes are back at the bottom of the hill.

2. Unique talent out the door

There was a particularly cruel element to Kent State's 2013 tumble: the stars had actually stuck around for another year.

On February 3, 2009, Signing Day, Dri Archer committed and signed to Doug Martin's Kent State Golden Flashes; an all-purpose back from Venice, Fla., Archer was given the lowest two-star designation by Rivals.com and was a mostly under-the-radar signing for a class that did not exactly blow people out of the water. Almost 10 months later, on November 24, Roosevelt Nix, a 5'10, 237-pound defensive tackle from Reynoldsburg, Ohio, committed as well. He had 35 tackles for loss as a senior, sure, but he was a 237-pound defensive tackle. A mid-two-star recruit, he was one of the more highly ranked members of Martin's final recruiting class.

In the end, these two nondescript signees did as much as Hazell in turning the program around. Nix became a 250-pound force at DT, logging 63 career tackles for loss and leading the team in the category for four straight years. He had 20 as a true freshman, then just kept on making plays as the talent around him waxed and waned.

Archer, meanwhile, was the headliner. He racked up 477 yards and four scores and proved a threatening kick returner as a true freshman and played a bit role in 2010, Martin's last season. After a redshirt year in 2011, however, he erupted for 1,990 rushing and receiving yards and 20 touchdowns and returned three kickoffs for scores. He battled through injuries as a senior in 2013 but still managed 854 combined yards, 10 touchdowns, and a return score. In 2012-13, he averaged a patently absurd 8.6 yards per carry; defenses knew he was going to touch the ball, and they couldn't stop him. And then he went to the NFL Combine and ripped off a 4.26-second 40-yard dash.

Even with these breakthrough seniors, Kent State slumped to 4-8 and its worst F/+ ranking since 2005. Now Paul Haynes has to figure out what to do without them.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 106
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	Liberty	N/A	17-10	W	14.8 - 32.6	L
7-Sep	Bowling Green	47	22-41	L	32.7 - 36.3	L
14-Sep	at LSU	17	13-45	L	24.4 - 47.4	L
21-Sep	at Penn State	61	0-34	L	6.2 - 28.1	L
28-Sep	at Western Michigan	117	32-14	W	29.3 - 33.5	L	-14.1
5-Oct	Northern Illinois	60	24-38	L	26.4 - 30.4	L	-11.3
12-Oct	at Ball State	57	24-27	L	26.8 - 26.2	W	-10.5
19-Oct	at South Alabama	68	21-38	L	34.0 - 35.5	L	-6.2
26-Oct	Buffalo	80	21-41	L	32.3 - 41.0	L	-3.5
2-Nov	at Akron	108	7-16	L	21.3 - 25.2	L	-3.5
13-Nov	Miami (Ohio)	123	24-6	W	26.2 - 32.8	L	-4.0
19-Nov	at Ohio	104	44-13	W	34.7 - 11.1	W	0.6

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-7.0%	90	-13.2%	113	-0.5%	81
Points Per Game	20.8	105	26.9	68
Adj. Points Per Game	25.8	88	31.7	98

3. It got better

As poorly as the 2013 season went -- and to be sure, a drop from 11 wins to four qualifies as "poor," no matter what -- it bears mentioning that the worst came at the start of the year. Kent State was truly awful in September but improved dramatically on both sides of the ball in October, then shored up the defense a bit more in November. Tight road losses to Ball State and Akron ensured that the Golden Flashes would not be bowling, but their level of play late was above average, even if the below numbers are a bit falsely boosted by one phenomenal performance against Ohio.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 36.1, KSU 19.5 (minus-16.6)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 31.4, KSU 29.1 (minus-2.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): KSU 28.6, Opponent 27.5 (plus-1.1)

If the players responsible for November improvement return, that late improvement can be sustained. And while the two biggest stars (Archer and Nix) are gone, Haynes does return 13 starters overall. The star power has taken a hit, but the decent depth could end up paying off.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.11	81	IsoPPP+	98.6	70
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.3%	91	Succ. Rt. +	86.2	108
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.9	52	Def. FP+	101.4	41
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.7	108	Redzone S&P+	87.8	104
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.7		ACTUAL	17	-3.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	89	101	109	107
RUSHING	48	96	110	86
PASSING	102	98	96	103
Standard Downs		111	113	84
Passing Downs		70	74	61

Q1 Rk	93	1st Down Rk	110
Q2 Rk	84	2nd Down Rk	69
Q3 Rk	107	3rd Down Rk	82
Q4 Rk	66

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Colin Reardon	6'1, 202	So.	2 stars (5.3)	186	317	1957	12	9	58.7%	10	3.1%	5.7
David Fisher				23	46	281	2	0	50.0%	4	8.0%	5.4
Brett Maxie	6'2, 211	Sr.	NR
Nathan Strock	6'2, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)

4. A little passing-downs magic ...

When you hand your team over to a freshman quarterback, you knon you're probably going to get some pretty impressive variance even if he does well. Colin Reardon was certainly not immune from such variance, and Kent State's fate was to some degree dictated by his own performance.

Reardon in wins: 69-for-110 (63%), 730 yards (6.6 per pass), 5 TD, 1 INT
Reardon in losses: 117-for-207 (57%), 1,227 yards (5.9 per pass), 7 TD, 8 INT

Reardon's full-season numbers weren't too impressive, but he did thrive in a way that could mean good things in the future: he made plays on passing downs. He showed some decent scrambling ability, and he was often able to find receivers like Chris Humphrey (who averaged a decent 7.2 yards per target despite nearly two-thirds of his targets coming on passing downs) and tight end Casey Pierce to move the chains after falling behind schedule. Passing downs conversions are a sign of poise and good decision-making, and Reardon's play on such downs was encouraging.

5. ... and too many passing downs

Kent State's problem, however, was that Reardon was asked to pull passing-downs rabbits out of his hat too frequently. Kent State's was a run-first offense that couldn't run the ball very well; big plays were too few and far between to account for the complete lack of efficiency on the ground. Coming through on passing downs is great, but you can't expect even really good quarterbacks to succeed at any grand level if they're too frequently in second- or third-and-long.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Trayion Durham	RB	6'1, 248	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	182	766	6	4.2	4.5	28.6%
Colin Reardon	QB	6'1, 202	So.	2 stars (5.3)	78	413	2	5.3	5.0	39.7%
Dri Archer	RB				68	527	6	7.8	8.7	45.6%
Anthony Meray	RB	5'8, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	54	248	1	4.6	5.4	27.8%
David Fisher	QB				15	128	0	8.5	5.8	66.7%
Ernest Calhoun	WR	5'6, 150	So.	NR	5	59	0	11.8	18.0	40.0%
Julian Durden	RB	5'7, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	43	0	8.6	41.9	20.0%

6. Thunder with no lightning

Humphrey and Pierce return in the receiving corps and are joined by an exciting batch of redshirt freshmen. Plus, while the line has to account for the loss of two two-year starters, it still returns five players with starting experience (45 career starts) and actually did a decent job of keeping defenders out of the backfield while running on standard downs and passing on passing downs. Reardon's supporting cast outside of the backfield should be decent.

But his biggest asset in the battle to avoid second-and-long is the guy next to him in the backfield, Trayion Durham. For two years, Durham was the thunder to Archer's lightning, and he played the role particularly well in 2012. But with Archer limited to 68 carries last season, Durham was unable to pick up the slack. He showed minimal explosiveness, and while a big back can do just fine without 80-yard runs, his Opportunity Rate (percentage of carries gaining at least five yards) was also far too low for him to be effective.

If the line can better create opportunities, it will be up to Durham to provide a little bit more lightning and a little bit more effective thunder.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Chris Humphrey	WR-Z	6'1, 194	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	85	51	613	60.0%	24.6%	36.8%	7.2	-27	7.3	69.4
Tyshon Goode	WR-X				81	45	458	55.6%	23.5%	44.8%	5.7	-131	5.2	51.9
Dri Archer	SLOT				46	25	327	54.3%	13.3%	53.5%	7.1	-4	5.3	37.0
Casey Pierce	TE	6'4, 235	Sr.	NR	43	33	364	76.7%	12.5%	44.1%	8.5	-3	8.8	41.2
Josh Boyle	WR-Z	5'9, 173	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	41	19	210	46.3%	11.9%	51.4%	5.1	-65	5.3	23.8
Trayion Durham	RB	6'1, 248	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	22	18	147	81.8%	6.4%	61.1%	6.7	-48	6.4	16.7
Ernest Calhoun	SLOT	5'6, 150	So.	NR	11	8	42	72.7%	3.2%	57.1%	3.8	-49	3.0	4.8
Anthony Meray	RB	5'8, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	6	5	27	83.3%	1.7%	75.0%	4.5	-27	2.9	3.1
Tim Erjavec	TE				5	1	19	20.0%	1.4%	100.0%	3.8	-7	5.3	2.2
William Woods	WR-X	5'9, 179	So.	2 stars (5.2)	3	3	27	100.0%	0.9%	100.0%	9.0	-3	5.0	3.1
Mike Levandowski	TE				2	1	4	50.0%	0.6%	100.0%	2.0	-10	1.1	0.5
Evan Shimensky	WR	5'10, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Brice Fackler	TE	6'3, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)
James Brooks	WR	5'9, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Brock Macauley	TE	6'7, 240	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kris White	WR	6'1, 210	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Chris Overton	WR	5'9, 155	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.7	2.96	3.61	35.0%	66.7%	17.1%	153.6	5.2%	2.4%
Rank	99	62	33	105	71	37	14	79	5

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Phil Huff	C				29
Pat McShane	RG				23
Terrell Johnson	LT	6'4, 302	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	17
Jason Bitsko	RT	6'3, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13
Reno Reda	LG	6'6, 275	So.	2 stars (5.3)	6
Wayne Scott	LG	6'3, 345	So.	2 stars (5.3)	5
Anthony Pruitt	RG	6'2, 315	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	4
Max Plunkett	LT				0
Alex Nielsen	C	6'4, 287	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Jim Katusha	RT	6'5, 275	Jr.	NR	0
Jake Witucki	OL	6'5, 284	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.17	74	IsoPPP+	95.2	93
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.5%	100	Succ. Rt. +	87.4	107
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.5	98	Off. FP+	95.5	101
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	85	Redzone S&P+	84.8	105
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.3		ACTUAL	13.0	-2.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	71	102	107	95
RUSHING	95	114	122	118
PASSING	27	81	48	51
Standard Downs		105	110	89
Passing Downs		81	85	100

Q1 Rk	104	1st Down Rk	98
Q2 Rk	99	2nd Down Rk	108
Q3 Rk	115	3rd Down Rk	104
Q4 Rk	80

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	86.2	3.54	2.76	47.0%	80.6%	15.4%	109.2	5.9%	5.1%
Rank	116	121	17	119	119	107	45	30	101

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Mark Fackler	DE				12	33.5	5.2%	3.5	0.5	0	2	0	0
Roosevelt Nix	DT				11	31.5	4.9%	13.0	3.5	0	5	2	0
Nate Vance	LEO	6'1, 230	Sr.	NR	12	29.5	4.6%	3.5	3.5	0	0	0	0
Zack Hitchens	LEO				12	18.0	2.8%	4.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Andrew Christopher	DT				12	15.0	2.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Chris Fairchild	NT	6'2, 312	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	14.5	2.3%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Nate Terhune	NT	6'4, 265	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	9	12.5	1.9%	7.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Terrence Waugh	DE	6'1, 236	So.	2 stars (5.4)	9	11.5	1.8%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Clay Miller	LEO	6'4, 258	Jr.	NR	10	5.0	0.8%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Marcus Wright	DT	6'4, 258	Sr.	NR	9	4.0	0.6%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Elias Sayre	NT	6'5, 250	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	9	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tyson Reinke	DT	6'2, 254	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Zack Singer	DT	6'3, 290	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kalil Morris	DT	6'3, 280	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. For better and for worse, the line starts over

For years, Kent State's defensive front somewhat took on Roosevelt Nix's identity -- small but fast, likely to get pushed around but likely to spend a decent amount of time in the backfield as well. This comes with obvious advantages and disadvantages, but whereas Kent's offense regressed a bit in 2013, the defensive performance flagged rather significantly following the loss of two starters on the line (edge rusher Jake Dooley and nose Dana Brown, Jr.) and two at linebacker (including leading tackler Luke Batton). Without stalwarts around him, Nix's production suffered a bit, and the line spent a lot more time getting pushed around than getting into the backfield.

The pass rush still ranked in the nation's top 50 last fall, but it fell from 11th in Adj. Sack Rate in 2012 to 45th. The ability to stand up to run blocking, meanwhile, disappeared. If Kent State could leverage you into passing downs, the Flashes were able to make some plays. But those opportunities were few and far between because the run defense was lacking, to put it kindly.

Everything starts over this fall. Four of the top five up front are gone, including Nix. In their place is a more regularly sized lineup (Chris Fairchild certainly lends some heft to the nose tackle position, at least) that is almost completely devoid of proven play-making ability. Nate Terhune had an all-or-nothing fall, making just 12.5 tackles but logging more than half of them behind the line. But the end position is an enormous question mark.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Matt Dellinger	MLB	6'1, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	53.0	8.3%	2.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
DeVante' Strickland	OLB	6'1, 231	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	36.5	5.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darius Redmond	OLB	6'0, 202	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11	27.0	4.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Danny Gress	MLB				12	19.5	3.0%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jake Houts	LB	6'1, 225	So.	NR	10	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kentrell Taylor	LB	5'11, 244	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Ryan Seibert	LB	6'4, 211	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jordan Italiano	STAR	5'10, 207	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	59.5	9.3%	2	0	0	1	2	0
Luke Wollet	SS				12	56.5	8.8%	2	0	2	5	0	0
Darius Polk	CB				12	47.0	7.3%	1.5	0.5	1	7	0	0
Keenan Stalls	FS	6'0, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	41.5	6.5%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Nate Holley	FS	5'11, 188	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	30.0	4.7%	1.5	0	0	1	0	0
Dylan Farrington	CB	6'1, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	29.5	4.6%	0	0	2	3	0	0
Malcom Pannell	CB				12	22.0	3.4%	1	0	3	4	0	0
Elcee Refuge	STAR	5'9, 232	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	5.0	0.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Fabrice Pratt	SS				11	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kerrick Rhone	CB	5'10, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	5	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Adam Maxie	CB	6'1, 176	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Demetrius Monday	CB	5'10, 189	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Eric Church	CB	5'9, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Eldin Anu	DB	5'10, 165	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jerrell Foster	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Erik Simpson	DB	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Depth, in case that matters

Outside of the line, the depth situation looks a lot more encouraging. Four of the five linebackers who made a tackle last year return, as do three of the top four safeties in coordinator Brian George's adjustable 4-2-5 alignment. The back seven hosts many of Kent State's more highly-touted recent recruits, and there is both experience and potential in this group. But it won't matter unless the line gets its act together.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Anthony Melchiori	5'11, 186	Jr.	35	44.5	3	14	14	80.0%
Andrew Horning	6'1, 205	Sr.	24	35.8	1	17	10	112.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Anthony Melchiori	5'11, 186	Jr.	39	62.1	13	0	33.3%
Brad Miller	5'10, 195	So.	14	50.4	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Anthony Melchiori	5'11, 186	Jr.	20-20	7-11	63.6%	2-4	50.0%
Brad Miller	5'10, 195	So.	9-9	1-2	50.0%	0-2	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Ernest Calhoun	KR	5'6, 150	So.	29	17.7	0
Chris Humphrey	KR	6'1, 194	Sr.	10	7.4	0
Ernest Calhoun	PR	5'6, 150	So.	12	5.2	0
Josh Boyle	PR	5'9, 173	Jr.	2	3.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	81
Field Goal Efficiency	117
Punt Return Efficiency	51
Kick Return Efficiency	18
Punt Efficiency	12
Kickoff Efficiency	116
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	100

9. Kaboom

Technically, Dri Archer was Kent State's best offensive player in 2013, even if he was limited by injury. But punter Anthony Melchiori might have done more favors to the offense with his punting -- his nearly 45-yard average, with frequent fair catches and downed punts deep in opposition territory, made up ground in the field position battle after a few too many three-and-outs -- than Archer did with his legs. He wasn't much of a place-kicker, but that could come. He returns, and as sad as it might be to say, he should get plenty more opportunities to ply his punting trade.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Ohio	108
6-Sep	South Alabama	92
13-Sep	at Ohio State	10
27-Sep	at Virginia	63
4-Oct	at Northern Illinois	51
11-Oct	Massachusetts	123
18-Oct	Army	101
25-Oct	at Miami (Ohio)	121
4-Nov	Toledo	53
12-Nov	at Bowling Green	60
19-Nov	at Buffalo	107
25-Nov	Akron	118

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-12.3% (95)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	110
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-4 / -5.4
TO Luck/Game	+0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (7, 6)

10. The climb begins again

On Tuesday, we previewed a Buffalo team that plays just two teams projected better than 100th in the country. Kent State, meanwhile, plays six such teams, five of which are projected 63rd or better. This is a brutal schedule by MAC standards, and it could severely limit the rebound of a team that really did show some growth late last year.

The first five games are key; the Golden Flashes could legitimately start 0-5 (1-4 is perhaps most likely), but if they maintain their confidence after consecutive road trips to Ohio State, Virginia, and Northern Illinois, they could find plenty of wins on the back end. Early wins over Ohio and South Alabama are vital to a bowl bid, but if they can just get back to four or five wins after losing quite a bit of star power, that will be a sign that Haynes might have some good years in him moving forward.