The big 2014 CMU football preview: Reversing an unhappy trend

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1. This is not a happy trend

Last January, following Central Michigan's first bowl bid in three years, the school gave head coach Dan Enos a contract extension. This is obviously common practice, but it followed a season in which CMU was basically of the same quality as the Chippewa teams that went 3-9 in 2010 and 2011. They went 3-0 in one-possession games to reach 7-6 and knocked off Western Kentucky in the Little Caesars Bowl, but the program as a whole didn't seem to be improving all that much.

Then, in 2013, the Chippewas were tasked with total rebuilds in the trenches and injuries in the backfield and played terribly for the first half of the season. There was improvement late, and CMU went from 1-4 to 6-6, but for the season as a whole the Chippewas ranked below 100th in the F/+ rankings for the first time since F/+ rankings began in 2005.

2. If a turnaround is coming, it begins in 2014

Enos came to Mount Pleasant following the departure of all-forever quarterback Dan LeFevour, and some regression was expected. Indeed, CMU fell from 38th in 2009 to 94th, 98th, and 95th in 2010-12. But instead of beginning to improve in 2013 as I thought they might, they got worse, especially early. Injuries played a role, and again the lines were devastated by graduation and attrition. But Enos ended up playing an incredibly young team last fall, younger than originally intended, and took his lumps.

This year, there is enough experience that improvement is all but guaranteed. But does "improvement" mean jumping back to that No. 90-100 range? Is there enough talent here for Enos to build something a little greater than that? It's hard to say, but the Chippewas' quarterback is interesting, there is some explosiveness at the skill positions, and at the very least the defense is experienced.

Whatever CMU is capable of becoming under Enos, we'll start to see it in 2014.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-6 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 111
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Michigan	37	9-59	L	14.5 - 44.0	L
7-Sep	New Hampshire	N/A	24-21	W	21.5 - 38.9	L
14-Sep	at UNLV	96	21-31	L	23.9 - 29.8	L
21-Sep	Toledo	62	17-38	L	30.6 - 27.8	W
28-Sep	at N.C. State	92	14-48	L	12.1 - 36.7	L	-14.9
5-Oct	at Miami (Ohio)	123	21-9	W	18.7 - 36.7	L	-12.7
12-Oct	at Ohio	104	26-23	W	29.0 - 38.8	L	-11.1
19-Oct	Northern Illinois	60	17-38	L	28.5 - 31.4	L	-10.5
6-Nov	at Ball State	57	24-44	L	33.6 - 35.2	L	-11.4
16-Nov	at Western Michigan	117	27-22	W	25.3 - 28.8	L	-7.2
23-Nov	Massachusetts	118	37-0	W	15.9 - 19.0	L	-4.2
29-Nov	Eastern Michigan	124	42-10	W	29.1 - 31.9	L	-2.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-11.8%	106	-13.5%	115	+0.1%	64
Points Per Game	23.3	95	28.6	74
Adj. Points Per Game	23.6	102	33.3	104

3. An atrocious first half

Among all the reasons for encouragement in 2014, one of the most prominent is simple: CMU's full-season numbers don't tell the tale of where the Chippewas were at the end of the season.

Over the first six games of 2013, there might not have been a worse team in the country than CMU. (Okay, that's not quite true, but CMU was certainly among the bottom 10.) The offense lost running back Zurlon Tipton early on and averaged better than 4.9 yards per play just twice in six games -- 6.7 against FCS New Hampshire and 5.7 against Toledo. In games No. 3-6, redshirt freshman Cooper Rush completed just 50 percent of his passes with three touchdowns to eight interceptions and a sub-100 passer rating. The running game was hit or miss. And the defense, a serious liability in 2013, wasn't really any better in 2014. This was a bad, bad team.

But it improved.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): Opponent 35.7, CMU 20.2 (minus-15.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 6 games): Opponent 30.9, CMU 26.9 (minus-4.0)

Freshman Maurice Shoemaker-Gilmore added a burst of explosiveness to the run game, Saylor Lavallii went off, Tipton returned, Rush got steadier, and CMU averaged at least 5.6 yards per play in four of its six final games. Meanwhile, the defense was still below average, allowing 7.1 yards per play to NIU and 7.5 to Ball State, but it got a better grip on the lesser offenses. CMU creeped by WMU, then pummeled UMass and EMU to reach 6-6.

As I've written many times through the years, improvement over the second half of a season can be sustainable if the reasons for the improvement return. Well ... CMU returns 18 starters, and Rush is no longer a redshirt freshman learning on the job. Good signs all around.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.15	62	IsoPPP+	97.8	76
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.2%	70	Succ. Rt. +	84.9	112
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.0	73	Def. FP+	98.4	76
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.7	107	Redzone S&P+	78.0	115
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.0		ACTUAL	27	+5.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	110	113	113	119
RUSHING	100	120	118	119
PASSING	86	91	84	98
Standard Downs		121	117	124
Passing Downs		69	69	8

Q1 Rk	104	1st Down Rk	125
Q2 Rk	121	2nd Down Rk	87
Q3 Rk	108	3rd Down Rk	83
Q4 Rk	99

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	Comp Rate	TD	INT	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Cooper Rush	6'3, 216	So.	2 stars (5.4)	177	312	2349	15	15	56.7%	26	7.7%	6.4
Alex Niznak				13	27	138	0	2	48.1%	5	15.6%	3.6
Cody Kater	6'3, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	2	6	13	0	0	33.3%	0	0.0%	2.2
Ryan Lamb	6'4, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. Head-first into the deep end

CMU's season-opener against Michigan was damaging in all sorts of ways. The Chippewas lost by 50, Tipton broke his ankle, and starting quarterback Cody Kater broke his collar bone. Backup QB Alex Niznak didn't fare very well, and a week later, Cooper Rush was given the job. Instead of a junior and a senior in the backfield, CMU went with a redshirt freshman (Rush) and a sophomore (Saylor Lavallii). If you're wondering why CMU's offense was so awful over the first half of the season, that's a pretty good place to start.

Rush went through plenty of growing pains, as one would expect of a youngster who went from third-string to first-string in a short amount of time; he was sacked once every 13 pass attempts, and he threw interceptions once every 20 passes. But he was also responsible for some huge gains on passing downs, and the composure and play-making ability it takes to rank eighth in Passing Downs PPP+ (even while ranking 124th in Standard Downs PPP+) is intriguing for a redshirt freshman.

Rush is in no way assured of the starting job in 2014. Kater is back and healthy, and Enos brought in JUCO transfer Ryan Lamb for competition as well. But his development could be interesting to watch over the next three years. With little to no run help and constant second- and third-and-longs (downs in which Rush was constantly asked to make plays with his arm with little help from draw plays and other runs), Rush made some things happen. That could say good things about 2015 and 2016, even if his development is still ongoing in 2014.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Saylor Lavallii	RB	5'9, 213	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	182	807	5	4.4	5.3	30.2%
Zurlon Tipton	RB				74	398	8	5.4	6.5	36.5%
Maurice Shoemaker-Gilmore	RB	5'11, 204	So.	NR	50	261	2	5.2	7.0	32.0%
Anthony Garland	RB	6'1, 218	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	32	159	0	5.0	3.4	46.9%
Cooper Rush	QB	6'3, 216	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	94	1	7.8	4.4	66.7%
Martez Walker	RB	5'8, 193	So.	2 stars (5.2)	9	8	0	0.9	N/A	0.0%
Titus Davis	WR	6'2, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	74	0	10.6	10.0	57.1%
Alex Niznak	QB	6'3, 227	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	4	15	0	3.8	7.1	25.0%
Amari Coleman	RB	5'11, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Trent Grimes	RB	6'1, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Titus Davis	WR-Z	6'2, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	102	61	1109	59.8%	32.2%	44.9%	10.9	342	9.8	157.2
Courtney Williams	WR-X	6'1, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	50	23	251	46.0%	15.8%	53.2%	5.0	-84	5.2	35.6
Andrew Flory	WR-Z	6'0, 182	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	48	31	377	64.6%	15.1%	51.3%	7.9	2	7.3	53.4
Connor Odykirk	TE				23	11	148	47.8%	7.3%	68.4%	6.4	-8	8.5	21.0
Saylor Lavallii	RB	5'9, 213	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	17	12	62	70.6%	5.4%	33.3%	3.6	-77	4.1	8.8
Ben McCord	TE	6'4, 243	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	14	7	62	50.0%	4.4%	58.3%	4.4	-35	5.3	8.8
Deon Butler	TE	6'3, 238	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	10	94	90.9%	3.5%	42.9%	8.5	-9	10.3	13.3
Adam Fenton	FB				10	8	76	80.0%	3.2%	66.7%	7.6	-11	8.8	10.8
Anthony Rice	WR	6'0, 178	So.	2 stars (5.2)	10	8	67	80.0%	3.2%	22.2%	6.7	-20	8.1	9.5
Jerry Harris	WR-X				9	3	28	33.3%	2.8%	33.3%	3.1	-25	6.4	4.0
Jesse Kroll	WR	6'3, 214	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	6	5	85	83.3%	1.9%	0.0%	14.2	31	7.5	12.1
Mike Kinville	TE	6'3, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	4	3	35	75.0%	1.3%	66.7%	8.8	1	13.1	5.0
Defarrel Davis	WR-Z				3	1	36	33.3%	0.9%	0.0%	12.0	18	8.0	5.1
Maurice Shoemaker-Gilmore	RB	5'11, 204	So.	NR	3	2	25	66.7%	0.9%	0.0%	8.3	1	5.6	3.5
Corey Willis	WR	5'10, 170	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Mark Chapman	WR-Z	6'0, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Zach Crouch	TE	6'5, 230	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Eric Cooper	WR	5'11, 177	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. Big plays at the skill positions

Tipton has graduated, but in Lavallii and Maurice Shoemaker-Gilmore, CMU has two running backs with solid big-play ability and more experience than they were expected to have heading into 2014. (Bill's Go-To Saying No. 14: Injuries hurt in the present tense and help in the future tense.) They need to improve between the tackles, but this position has potential.

Meanwhile, there isn't just potential at wideout -- there's proven production. Titus Davis has caught 144 passes for 2,720 yards and 24 touchdowns in three seasons at CMU; he is potentially the best big-play receiver in the mid-major ranks, and "Just throw it up to Titus" was a rather effective gambit on passing downs.

Where CMU needs to improve, however, is in the mundane. The tight end position was utilized relatively frequently on standard downs but didn't actually accomplish much. X-receiver Courtney Williams combined a poor 10.9 yards per catch with an even poorer 46-percent catch rate. The quarterback of choice will need to find some reliable underneath options, be they seniors or redshirt freshmen. If CMU can get better closer to the line of scrimmage, the Chippewas could reap the benefits of having guys who can go deep. We'll see how new offensive coordinator Morris Watts, promoted after Mike Cummins left for UConn, handles the run-or-pass situations.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	79.1	2.76	3.17	33.8%	58.8%	22.4%	73.5	2.1%	11.7%
Rank	123	89	75	113	105	112	104	9	117

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Andy Phillips	LG	6'3, 306	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	30	2nd All-MAC
Jake Olson	LT				28
Nick Beamish	C	6'3, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	25
Kevin Henry	RT	6'4, 306	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	16
Ramadan Ahmeti	LT	6'7, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	10
Connor Collins	RG	6'3, 300	So.	2 stars (5.2)	9
Cody Pettit	LG				3
Austin Doan	C	6'4, 296	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Kevin D'Arcy	RG	6'4, 300	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Kenny Rogers	RT	6'6, 304	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Derek Edwards	OL	6'5, 282	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jack Ford	OL	6'7, 301	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Alex Coty	OL	6'4, 305	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
J.P. Quinn	OL	6'4, 280	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Shakir Carr	OL	6'4, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Brandon Keen	OL	6'6, 290	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. So how's the line?

CMU produced the No. 1 player in the 2013 NFL Draft; tackle Eric Fisher anchored a line that ranked 76th in Adj. Line Yards and 34th in Adj. Sack Rate. Not only did he depart after 2012, but so did three other multi-year starters on the line. The line was forced to start over, and as you see from the rankings above, it didn't fare well.

From a recruiting standpoint, CMU has done well in the trenches; tackle Kevin Henry is a former three-star signee, a pair of well-touted redshirt freshmen (Derek Edwards and Jack Ford) could join the rotation this year, and another three-star true freshman (Shakir Carr) joins the team as well. The ceiling here is potentially high, especially when you consider that there's quite a bit of experience here (90 career starts). But how long will it take to reach that ceiling? Last year's line needed to help out its young quarterback and running backs and couldn't.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.08	36	IsoPPP+	98.5	67
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.8%	108	Succ. Rt. +	81.0	120
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.4	64	Off. FP+	96.5	96
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	59	Redzone S&P+	84.0	110
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.7		ACTUAL	22.0	+1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	67	114	120	103
RUSHING	98	122	124	116
PASSING	20	103	104	69
Standard Downs		111	120	84
Passing Downs		104	117	48

Q1 Rk	88	1st Down Rk	103
Q2 Rk	113	2nd Down Rk	114
Q3 Rk	121	3rd Down Rk	120
Q4 Rk	97

7. Explosive vs. mundane

As mentioned, the CMU offense was good at big plays but failed at the mundane plays in 2013. The defense was in the same boat; the Chippewas were perfectly decent in terms of bringing players down in open space and preventing major damage from big plays. But for the life of them, they couldn't prevent opponents from gaining six yards at any point. CMU was 124th, third-from-last, in terms of rushing efficiency, and 104th in passing efficiency. The defense actually pulled off a nice combination on passing downs -- good sack rate and minimal big gains. That can be very useful, but only if you actually create passing downs in the first place. They were few and far between in 2013.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	84.3	3.58	3.03	41.5%	71.4%	17.8%	91.2	2.4%	8.6%
Rank	121	125	37	88	90	83	79	113	29

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jeremy Gainer	DE				12	31.5	4.5%	5.5	2.0	0	2	1	0
Louis Palmer	DE	6'2, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	24.5	3.5%	6.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Leterrius Walton	NT	6'5, 323	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	11	24.5	3.5%	9.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Blake Serpa	DE	6'3, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	23.0	3.3%	7.0	3.0	0	1	1	0
Jabari Dean (2012)	DT	6'2, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	17.0	2.3%	1.5	1.0	0	0	1	1
Shafer Johnson	NT	6'1, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	14.5	2.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Ostman	DE	6'3, 235	So.	2 stars (5.3)	11	14.5	2.1%	1.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Kelby Latta	DT	6'4, 312	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	9.5	1.4%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Smith	DE				9	8.0	1.1%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Kenny McClendon	DE				7	5.0	0.7%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Matt Losiniecki	DL	6'3, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	5	5.0	0.7%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Jabari Dean	DL	6'2, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	2	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Donny Kyre	DE	6'2, 255	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Mitch Stanitzek	DE	6'4, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Nate Brisson-Fast	DE	6'5, 245	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Again, how's the line?

In middle linebacker Justin Cherocci, end Blake Serpa, and on occasion, safety Avery Cunningham, CMU was indeed able to get relatively creative and aggressive in passing downs pass rush. But again, that only matters if you leverage teams into passing downs, and a line that had pretty decent size got pushed around far too much. Linebackers Cherocci and Shamari Benton combined for 20 tackles for loss (14 of the non-sack variety), and monstrous nose tackle Leterrius Walton added another 9.5, and CMU still ranked 121st in Adj. Line Yards.

Walton, Serpa, and almost everybody else returns up front. We'll see if that's a good thing.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Justin Cherocci	MLB	6'0, 231	Sr.	NR	12	84.0	12.0%	9.5	4.0	1	0	2	0
Shamari Benton	SAM				12	80.0	11.4%	10.5	2.0	1	2	1	0
Cody Lopez	MLB	6'1, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	13.5	1.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Joe Bacci	LB	6'1, 243	So.	2 stars (5.2)	6	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Nathan Ricketts	SAM	6'3, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Tim Hamilton	SAM	6'1, 233	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	4	3.5	0.5%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Zelinsky	MLB				3	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Malik Fountain	LB	6'2, 228	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

9. An attacking MLB

Benton and Cunningham are gone, but in Cherocci, CMU returns a senior leader who appears to be both steady and exciting. Middle linebackers don't frequently lead the team in sacks, and it's not necessarily a good thing when they do (it could say quite a bit about the quality of the edge rushers), but Cherocci did just that. There is almost no proven depth at linebacker, but Cherocci is a proven entity.

If experience on the line turns out to be a good thing, then Cherocci and a secondary that returns almost everybody (including four players who defensed at least five passes each) could assure that CMU not only makes some plays but does just as well in preventing them in 2014. It's all up to the line.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Avery Cunningham	S				12	62.5	8.9%	4	2	1	4	0	0
Kavon Frazier	S	6'0, 213	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	51.5	7.3%	0	0	3	5	1	1
Jason Wilson	CB	6'0, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	46.5	6.6%	1.5	0	3	5	1	0
Brandon Greer	CB	6'1, 203	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	40.0	5.7%	0	0	2	5	0	0
Jarret Chapman	S	6'0, 194	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	39.5	5.6%	1.5	0	1	4	0	0
Kevin King	S	5'10, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	6	24.5	3.5%	4	2	0	0	1	0
Tony Annese	S	6'1, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11	23.0	3.3%	0.5	0	2	1	0	0
Dennis Nalor	CB	6'0, 178	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	6	11.5	1.6%	0.5	0	0	1	1	0
Denzel Wimberly	S	5'10, 201	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	4	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Stefon Armstead	CB	5'10, 175	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	2	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Winslow Chapman	DB	6'0, 193	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Colton Odykirk	DB	6'2, 200	Jr.	NR	2	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Fields	DB	5'11, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Josh Cox	DB	5'11, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Richie Hogan			51	43.9	4	8	17	49.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Connor Gagnon			57	60.9	14	1	24.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Ron Coluzzi			33-35	11-15	73.3%	1-2	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jerry Harris	KR			28	21.5	0
Defarrel Davis	KR			5	21.4	0
Titus Davis	PR	6'2, 190	Sr.	18	6.6	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	64
Field Goal Efficiency	103
Punt Return Efficiency	46
Kick Return Efficiency	25
Punt Efficiency	104
Kickoff Efficiency	29
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	84

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	Chattanooga	NR
6-Sep	at Purdue	104
13-Sep	Syracuse	66
20-Sep	at Kansas	97
27-Sep	at Toledo	53
4-Oct	Ohio	108
11-Oct	at Northern Illinois	51
18-Oct	Ball State	81
25-Oct	at Buffalo	107
1-Nov	at Eastern Michigan	122
15-Nov	Miami (Ohio)	121
22-Nov	Western Michigan	113

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-11.9% (94)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	95
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-5 / -1.3
TO Luck/Game	-1.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	18 (10, 8)

10. 18 starters is a lot

CMU returns quite a bit in 2014. Granted, it's quite a bit from a team that nearly drowned over the first half of 2013, but the Chippewas did survive that rough patch and finish reasonably strong. Titus Davis is a true star, and players who were too inexperienced and raw to play consistently well in 2013 (Cooper Rush, Saylor Lavallii, Maurice Shoemaker-Gilmore, receiver Andrew Flory, Justin Cherocci, Leterrius Walton, Blake Serpa, most of the secondary) could improve quite a bit this fall.

I've been pretty down on Enos' tenure overall, even as he was engineering a bowl bid in 2012, but his 2014 squad will have more experience and play-making ability than any other he's had. Throw in a cakey November slate, and there's certainly potential for another hot finish and bowl bid.

In the end, however, if CMU is going to make anything of the first two months of the season, and therefore give itself a ceiling higher than 6-6, it's going to depend on improvement on the line. The offensive line needs to begin living up to recruiting hype, and the defensive line needs to prevent the same kind of gashing it suffered last year, even while making some plays here and there.

Again, whatever Enos is going to create out of this program, we're going to see it developing quite a bit in 2014. I don't know if that's an encouraging or discouraging statement.