The big 2014 Marshall football preview: The class of the conference

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1. Marshall vs. the field

So when does the surge begin, then? Now? Another year from now? Ever? Doc Holliday truly has done a startling job of amassing talent and raw athleticism in Huntington, but as I said at the top, that has to eventually translate into results. Marshall has won five, six, and five regular season games in Holliday's three seasons; after struggling on the offensive end, he fixed those problems just in time for his defense to fall apart. Both units have performed well at some point in his three years, and if the pieces come together in 2013, lord knows there won't be a lot of resistance within the conference.

Okay, so technically Marshall didn't win Conference USA in 2013, so there's a bit more breaking through to be done. But I capped my "Your future overlords" preview last year by asking for a bit more from Marshall, and to say the least, the Thundering Herd provided it last fall.

Doc Holliday has been accumulating talent in a way that dwarves most of the other teams, past and present, in Conference USA. There are 39 former three-star recruits listed below and three former four-stars. That is a level of recruiting (and/or transfer-wrangling) nobody else in the conference can touch.

And the scariest part is, in 2013 production began to match potential. With a team that was still relatively young, Marshall improved from 82nd to 52nd overall in the F/+ rankings. Marshall almost won at Virginia Tech (it took a relatively poor performance not to), pummeled East Carolina to win the Conference USA East, and looked like the bigger, stronger, faster team against Maryland in the Military Bowl. The Herd looked the part in 2013 and began to play like it.

And in 2014, they return an ace quarterback, his top target, a couple of explosive running backs, two all-conference offensive linemen, and nine starters from a defense that recorded 102 tackles for loss and improved from 117th io 78th in Def. F/+ last season.

So yeah, Marshall is indeed your Conference USA overlord in 2014. And I'm not sure it's close.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-4 | Adj. Record: 12-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 52
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Miami (Ohio)	123	52-14	W	28.5 - 22.7	W
7-Sep	Gardner-Webb	N/A	55-0	W	26.4 - 19.3	W
14-Sep	at Ohio	104	31-34	L	37.9 - 22.2	W
21-Sep	at Virginia Tech	27	21-29	L	25.3 - 25.7	L
5-Oct	UTSA	67	34-10	W	28.2 - 14.6	W	8.3
12-Oct	at Florida Atlantic	73	24-23	W	31.9 - 31.7	W	7.2
24-Oct	at Middle Tennessee	85	49-51	L	31.1 - 30.9	W	5.9
2-Nov	Southern Miss	120	61-13	W	51.1 - 26.7	W	7.6
9-Nov	UAB	115	56-14	W	53.5 - 30.6	W	12.3
14-Nov	at Tulsa	94	45-34	W	33.9 - 26.0	W	11.1
23-Nov	at Florida International	125	48-10	W	36.2 - 26.0	W	13.1
29-Nov	East Carolina	40	59-28	W	44.5 - 23.6	W	17.3
7-Dec	at Rice	69	24-41	L	29.8 - 42.5	L	9.9
27-Dec	vs. Maryland	63	31-20	W	39.5 - 28.1	W	7.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+8.6%	30	-3.1%	78	-1.1%	89
Points Per Game	42.1	7	22.9	32
Adj. Points Per Game	35.5	20	26.5	57

2. They did lose to Ohio, MTSU, and Rice

Yes, Marshall mostly broke through in 2013. The Herd won 10 games for the first time since 2002, won their division, and whipped a local major-conference opponent in a bowl. All good things. But no matter how foregone the 2014 conclusion seems on paper, there is still some work to be done.

It took some poor turnovers luck (Ohio recovered all three of the game's fumbles, including one in the end zone), but Marshall still lost to what turned out to be a pretty iffy Ohio team. Despite having Virginia Tech on the ropes for most of the second half, the Herd never could put the Hokies away and still fell in overtime. The defense still fell apart late against Middle Tennessee, allowing scores on five of six drives after halftime (including the game-winner as time expired). And the Herd did still lay an egg in the Conference USA title game at Rice.

And beyond that, Marshall still ranked behind conference mates East Carolina (40th) and North Texas (51st) in the F/+ rankings. Granted, ECU's off to the AAC, but the Herd are neither the conference's defending champion nor the conference's defending best team.

But still ... this all looks set up perfectly on paper, doesn't it?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	55	IsoPPP+	103.1	45
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.7%	23	Succ. Rt. +	108.3	33
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.9	50	Def. FP+	100.4	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.1	4	Redzone S&P+	100.5	60
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.1		ACTUAL	23	-0.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	12	37	33	16
RUSHING	24	60	54	50
PASSING	20	27	22	13
Standard Downs		51	45	57
Passing Downs		27	18	55

Q1 Rk	43	1st Down Rk	47
Q2 Rk	62	2nd Down Rk	46
Q3 Rk	32	3rd Down Rk	11
Q4 Rk	12

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Rakeem Cato

6'0, 188

Sr.

3 stars (5.5)

298

499

3916

39

9

59.7%

25

4.8%

7.1

Blake Frohnapfel

17

22

206

3

1

77.3%

1

4.3%

8.4

Gunnar Holcombe

6'3, 192

So.

3 stars (5.6)

Kevin Anderson

6'2, 199

RSFr.

2 stars (5.4)

Cole Garvin

6'1, 200

Fr.

3 stars (5.5)

3. All hail Rakeem Cato

As a freshman, Rakeem Cato completed 60 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions for a 7-6 squad. As a sophomore, he was asked to throw nearly 50 passes per game and completed 70 percent of them with 37 touchdowns and 11 interceptions; Marshall's defense fell apart, which cost the Herd a bowl, but Cato and the offense did their part. As a junior, Cato threw almost 200 fewer passes in a more balanced attack but still threw for almost 4,000 yards with 39 touchdowns and nine picks.

With each passing year, Cato has played the role he's been asked to play, and as a senior he'll have at his disposal a supporting cast as loaded with potential as any in the mid-major universe. He'll share the backfield with three three-star upperclassmen, two of whom showed major potential for explosiveness in 2013. He'll have to break in a couple of new pieces at receiver, but he gets slot receiver Tommy Shuler for another year, and those newcomers come highly touted. And his line features a mix of experienced, proven entities and three-star youngsters.

Marshall ranked 31st in Off. F/+ in 2012 and 30th in 2013; with Cato at the helm for one more year, a trip into the top 25 is conceivable.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Essray Taliaferro	RB				221	1140	10	5.2	5.0	37.1%
Kevin Grooms	RB	5'10, 168	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	91	503	6	5.5	6.8	36.3%
Steward Butler	RB	5'9, 178	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	87	765	8	8.8	10.6	47.1%
Rakeem Cato	QB	6'0, 188	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	74	475	6	6.4	4.4	54.1%
Remi Watson	RB	5'11, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	30	120	0	4.0	3.5	33.3%
Blake Frohnapfel	QB	6'6, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	98	1	9.8	12.2	50.0%
DeAndre Reaves	WR	5'10, 176	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	5	3	0	0.6	2.2	20.0%
Devon Johnson	TE	6'1, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	5	13	3	2.6	2.0	20.0%
Kevin Rodriguez	RB	5'8, 195	Sr.	NR	5	11	0	2.2	0.5	20.0%

4. If he keeps his nose clean ...

... Kevin Grooms could have a breakout season. The conference's freshman of the year in 2012 has shown rare explosiveness in his time in Huntington; he averaged 7.1 highlight yards per opportunity in 2012, and despite injuries, he averaged 6.8 in 2013. But injuries limited him to 91 carries for the season, and he had a pretty horrific year off the field. He was charged with underage consumption and obstruction in April, and in the hours after Marshall's big win over ECU, he was booked for misdemeanor domestic battery and obstruction. He was suspended indefinitely from team activities, but he's back with the team this spring, and if he improves as a person, he'll thrive as a player.

Even if Grooms is absent, Marshall could have a good enough duo of running backs in Steward Butler and Remi Watson. Buler was downright spectacular in six to seven carries per game; like Grooms, he is a smaller option, but his explosiveness is off the charts. If Watson -- by default the big back in the backfield at 5'11, 200 pounds -- can play a short-yardage role of sorts, this unit is loaded, with or without Grooms. With him, however, this is one of the best backfields in the country.

The running backs should have a pretty good line in front of them, too. Marshall's line was strong in most areas last year, and it's a glass-half-full situation this year -- three players who combined for 67 career starts (including all-conference tackle Garrett Scott) are gone, but four who have combined for 63 (including all-conference performers Chris Jasperse and Clint Van Horn) are back. A pair of three-star redshirt freshmen could join the fray this year as well. I figure the odds are good that this line's performance will resemble last year's, and that should be good enough.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tommy Shuler	SLOT	5'7, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	159	106	1165	66.7%	31.6%	60.1%	7.3	-96	7.1	138.4
Gator Hoskins	TE				78	50	821	64.1%	15.5%	58.8%	10.5	214	10.3	97.5
Devon Smith	WR-X				69	39	653	56.5%	13.7%	49.2%	9.5	148	9.3	77.6
Craig Wilkins	WR-Z	6'0, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	57	32	408	56.1%	11.3%	45.7%	7.2	-8	7.0	48.5
Demetrius Evans	WR-Z	5'11, 197	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	30	19	134	63.3%	6.0%	74.1%	4.5	-98	3.8	15.9
Davonte Allen	WR-X	6'2, 203	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	27	9	163	33.3%	5.4%	59.1%	6.0	3	4.1	19.4
Essray Taliaferro	RB				14	12	128	85.7%	2.8%	38.5%	9.1	1	8.7	15.2
Devon Johnson	TE	6'1, 240	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	12	218	92.3%	2.6%	28.6%	16.8	95	13.1	25.9
Jazz King	WR				13	5	109	38.5%	2.6%	58.3%	8.4	28	9.1	12.9
Eric Frohnapfel	TE	6'6, 227	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	7	95	63.6%	2.2%	30.0%	8.6	10	8.3	11.3
Kevin Grooms	RB	5'10, 168	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	11	9	80	81.8%	2.2%	54.5%	7.3	-17	7.2	9.5
DeAndre Reaves	SLOT	5'10, 176	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	6	42	85.7%	1.4%	100.0%	6.0	-22	3.9	5.0
Justin Hunt	WR	6'2, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	4	2	48	50.0%	0.8%	N/A	12.0	20	0.0	5.7
Josh Knight	WR	6'0, 184	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Angelo Jean-Louis	WR	6'0, 175	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Deon-Tay McManus	TE	6'2, 227	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Hyleck Foster	WR	5'11, 186	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Emanuel Beal	WR	6'1, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. Two openings and tons of candidates

Gator Hoskins was a red zone machine, and Devon Smith was the best big-play wideout in the group, and they're both gone. There are candidates galore, but there's nothing guaranteeing that the new contributors' production will match that of the old contributors.

Still, there is certainly room for optimism. Devon Johnson basically exceeded Hoskins' per-target production (with 65 fewer targets, yes), Craig Wilkins has shown potential for both efficiency (70 percent catch rate in 2012) and explosiveness (12.8 yards per catch in 2013), and two four-star redshirt freshmen enter the mix as well. Angelo Jean-Louis and Deon-Tay McManus were just about the most highly touted recruits any mid-major signed in the 2013 recruiting class, and after a redshirt year they get their chance this fall. Throw in experienced hands like Demetrius Evans (minimal explosiveness) and Davonte Allen (horrific catch rate), and you've got a potentially deep unit.

Hoskins and Smith will be missed, but there's a chance they won't be missed that much.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.3	3.11	3.18	40.6%	79.2%	17.6%	127.3	5.0%	4.8%
Rank	63	42	74	52	7	42	39	76	39

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Chris Jasperse	C	6'4, 289	Sr.	NR	39	1st All-CUSA
Garrett Scott	LT				35	2nd All-CUSA
Clint Van Horn	RT	6'4, 302	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	8	2nd All-CUSA
Alex Schooler	RG				21
Sebastian Johansson	LG	6'4, 284	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	14
Gage Niemeyer	LT				11
Cameron Dees	C	6'1, 285	So.	3 stars (5.5)	2
Michael Selby	RG	6'2, 275	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Blake Brooks	LG	6'1, 317	Sr.	NR	0
Trevor Mendelson	RG	6'7, 295	Sr.	NR	0
Tom Collins	LG	6'4, 272	Jr.	NR	0
Chris Huhn	LT	6'5, 284	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Sandley Jean-Felix	RT	6'5, 321	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Cody Collins	C	6'1, 281	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Nathaniel Devers	OL	6'3, 261	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
A.J. Addison	OL	6'6, 274	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.07	29	IsoPPP+	103.3	44
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.7%	29	Succ. Rt. +	91.7	94
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.6	36	Off. FP+	99.5	68
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	45	Redzone S&P+	90.8	86
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.2		ACTUAL	26.0	+1.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	35	88	94	99
RUSHING	59	92	105	109
PASSING	24	83	56	79
Standard Downs		89	102	28
Passing Downs		86	67	98

Q1 Rk	48	1st Down Rk	72
Q2 Rk	91	2nd Down Rk	105
Q3 Rk	105	3rd Down Rk	85
Q4 Rk	82

6. An attacking bend-don't-break?

It's fun finding contradictions. This is my fourth year previewing every FBS team in big profiles, and after a while, it's easy to start profiling offenses or defenses based on specific characteristics.

For instance, when I see a team that ranked 94th in Success Rate+ and 44th in IsoPPP+, that tells me that they were willing to sacrifice some efficiency to prevent big plays. Bend-don't-break! However ... Marshall was also one of the most successfully aggressive defenses in the country, logging 102 tackles for loss (seventh in the country) and 32 sacks (31st) while intercepting 18 passes (13th) and breaking up another 58 (13th). Granted, those raw numbers are boosted by the fact that the Herd played 14 games, but even on a per-game basis, these totals are well above average.

In the end, the numbers are a little bit confused by Marshall's schedule. The Herd played a lot of big-play, low-efficiency teams (Maryland and Virginia Tech, to name two obvious ones), and while they didn't willfully sacrifice efficiency, the numbers suggest that they allowed a few seven-yard gains for every tackle for loss. And with a couple of key absences up front and almost complete continuity in the back, these strengths and weaknesses could both become more pronounced in 2014.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.4	2.81	2.86	33.9%	76.0%	19.0%	88.3	4.8%	6.0%
Rank	80	45	23	17	104	65	83	53	83

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alex Bazzie	DE				14	47.0	5.6%	13.0	2.0	0	2	2	0
Ra'Shawde Myers	DE	6'4, 246	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	38.5	4.6%	5.5	4.5	1	0	0	0
Brandon Sparrow	NT				12	30.5	3.6%	5.0	1.5	0	1	1	0
James Rouse	DT	6'5, 270	Sr.	2 stars (4.9)	14	30.5	3.6%	14.0	6.0	0	3	0	0
Gary Thompson	DE	6'2, 241	So.	2 stars (5.2)	14	21.0	2.5%	5.0	3.0	2	4	1	0
Steve Dillon	DT	6'3, 280	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	14	16.5	2.0%	1.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Jarquez Samuel	NT	6'4, 273	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	14	15.0	1.8%	3.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Arnold Blackmon	DE	6'1, 242	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	14.5	1.7%	6.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Josh Brown	NT	6'7, 307	So.	3 stars (5.6)	8	10.5	1.3%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jeremiah Taylor	DL				4	7.0	0.8%	1.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Armonze Daniel	DE	6'4, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	5	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Matt Pickett	DL				14	2.5	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ricardo Williams (Miami)	DE	6'5, 251	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Marcus Gilchrist	DE	6'4, 249	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Jason Smith	DE	6'3, 235	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Malik Thompson	DE	6'6, 275	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

7. Stiffen up that run D

Though he only had two sacks for a pass rush that wasn't very good outside of tackle James Rouse's contributions, Alex Bazzie was probably the best playmaker Marshall had against the run. He had 11 non-sack tackles for loss, one of the largest totals you'll see. He and nose Brandon Sparrow are both gone from a line that was particularly shaky in short-yardage situations, so we'll see how they cope.

Sophomore end Gary Thompson showed serious potential in an undersized frame and could team with Ra'Shawde Myers and Miami transfer Ricardo Williams to better harass opposing quarterbacks, but we'll see if this relatively undersized trio holds up to run blocking any better than last year's ends did. With Rouse's return, there is all sorts of potential at tackle, but this line might be treading water instead of improving.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Evan McKelvey	WILL	6'1, 211	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	14	76.0	9.1%	5.0	0.5	1	3	1	0
Jermaine Holmes	MIKE	5'11, 246	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	65.0	7.8%	8.5	2.0	1	1	0	0
Neville Hewitt	MIKE	6'2, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	57.5	6.9%	3.5	2.5	1	1	1	0
D.J. Hunter	SAM	6'0, 212	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	14	36.5	4.4%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Stefan Houston	WILL	6'3, 209	So.	3 stars (5.6)	11	32.0	3.8%	5.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Raheem Waiters	SAM	6'0, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	14	15.0	1.8%	1.0	1.0	1	2	0	0
Derek Mitchell	SAM				14	15.0	1.8%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cortez Carter	MIKE	5'11, 240	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	8.5	1.0%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Kent Turene	MIKE	6'3, 236	So.	3 stars (5.5)	3	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Hall	LB	6'3, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Frankie Henrndez	LB	6'2, 203	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Kaleb Harris	LB	6'3, 207	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Corey Tindal	CB	5'9, 179	So.	2 stars (5.4)	14	50.5	6.0%	5	1.5	0	6	0	1
Darryl Roberts	CB	5'11, 177	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	49.5	5.9%	5	0	2	7	0	0
A.J. Leggett	FS	5'11, 190	So.	4 stars (5.9)	11	38.5	4.6%	0.5	0	4	3	0	0
Taj Letman	S	6'2, 192	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	14	37.0	4.4%	0.5	0	1	4	1	0
Tiquan Lang	SS	5'9, 178	So.	2 stars (5.2)	13	34.0	4.1%	0.5	0	1	2	1	0
Monterius Lovett	CB				14	26.5	3.2%	2.5	0	2	11	0	0
Keith Baxter (2012)	CB	5'11, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	25.0	3.2%	1	0	1	6	0	0
Derrick Thomas	CB				14	14.0	1.7%	0.5	0	0	3	0	0
Michael Johnson	CB	5'10, 163	So.	3 stars (5.7)	11	3.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Corie Wilson	FS	5'9, 168	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	2.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Andre Scott	FS	6'0, 182	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Quintavious Knight	DB	6'0, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Donaldven Manning (Virginia Tech)	CB	5'10, 181	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Demetrius Johnson	S	6'2, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Kendall Gant	S	6'3, 184	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. Loaded in the back

Opponents ran on Marshall far more frequently than the national average in 2013, in part because Marshall's run defense was shaky and in part because the pass defense was pretty exciting. There were some big-play glitches here and there, but last year's top six defensive backs combined for 14 tackles for loss, 10 interceptions, and 33 break-ups.

Five of the six return, and the one departure, Monterius Lovett, might be replaced with either junior Keith Baxter (who missed 2013) or four-star sophomore Donaldven Manning (a Virginia Tech transfer) without much of a dropoff. This secondary is going to be dynamite -- maybe not as good as FAU's within the conference, but as good as anybody else's.

And if the pass rush improves, Marshall's overall pass defense ratings could soar. There is certainly a lot more potential in pass defense than run defense this year.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Williams	6'0, 195	Jr.	56	42.3	5	13	13	46.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Amoreto Curraj	6'2, 202	So.	97	63.5	52	3	53.6%
Justin Haig	5'8, 174	Sr.	4	44.3	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Justin Haig	5'8, 174	Sr.	77-80	9-13	69.2%	2-3	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
DeAndre Reaves	KR	5'10, 176	Jr.	37	25.0	0
Steward Butler	KR	5'9, 178	Jr.	6	22.0	0
Devon Smith	PR			26	14.7	1
DeAndre Reaves	PR	5'10, 176	Jr.	6	8.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	89
Field Goal Efficiency	100
Punt Return Efficiency	24
Kick Return Efficiency	65
Punt Efficiency	115
Kickoff Efficiency	31
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	45

9. Replacing Devon Smith

MU returns almost everybody from its special teams unit, from a kicker who boomed touchbacks more than half the time as a freshman, to a solid kick returner in DeAndre Reaves. Punter Tyler Williams returns as well, though he outkicked his coverage a few too many times for comfort. But the loss of Devon Smith at punt returner could be costly. Smith was one of the best in the country.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Miami (Ohio)	121
6-Sep	Rhode Island	NR
13-Sep	Ohio	108
20-Sep	at Akron	118
4-Oct	at Old Dominion	NR
11-Oct	Middle Tennessee	99
18-Oct	at Florida International	119
25-Oct	Florida Atlantic	103
8-Nov	at Southern Miss	110
15-Nov	Rice	88
22-Nov	at UAB	115
28-Nov	Western Kentucky	91

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-7.3% (81)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	63
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	3 / 1.1
TO Luck/Game	+0.7
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (6, 9)

10. This team will almost certainly be favored in all 12 games

This schedule! Wow, this schedule. According to preseason projections, Marshall's toughest home game is against a Rice squad that is rebuilding at least a bit. The Herd's toughest home game is either against Southern Miss or ODU.

Marshall does a nice job of not only scheduling local major-conference foes like WVU, Virginia Tech, and Louisville, but also scheduling interesting mid-major matchups against teams like Ohio, Bowling Green, and other former MAC mates. This year, however, year there are no major-conference foes and three of those former MAC mates, all of which are projected 108th or worse (though I expect Akron and maybe Ohio to be better than that). Combined with the fact that the Herd reside in what is by far the weaker C-USA division this year -- FAU is going to be strong, but UTSA, Rice, and North Texas are on the other side -- and there really are no excuses for Marshall to miss the C-USA title game.

Actually, let's raise the stakes. If Marshall improves to a nearly top-40 level as I anticipate, the Herd could not only go 12-0 but go 12-0 while winning every game by double digits. That's probably unfair to FAU and Rice, but if this team improves upon last year's performance, there will be only minor speed bumps standing in the way. If the Herd bring something resembling an A-game every week, this could be an incredibly memorable season. Granted, injuries and other issues could derail the train, but as currently constituted, this roster should just be too much for pretty much every opponent on the schedule.

No pressure, guys.