The big 2014 SDSU football preview: Another year, another 8 or 9 wins

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1. The bones get stronger every year

Every year if feels like I say something similar about San Diego State.

The Aztecs are in a fertile recruiting area. They have no excuse not to be at least decent. They were mostly bad until about 2010. Now they're in much better shape. You probably know the story by now.

The Aztecs are actually reaching an interesting crossroads. After winning 34 games in the nine seasons between 2000-08, the Aztecs have won 34 in four years. They attended four bowls from 1969-2009, and they've now attended four in a row. They are undoubtedly in better shape as a program than they ever have been before.

But eight wins gets boring after a while. Recruiting has been strong and steady, to the point where the Aztecs have former three-star (or better) recruits at every position -- seven at linebacker, five on the defensive line, five in the secondary, four at running back, four on the offensive line, three at wideout, two at tight end, et cetera. The base of talent is strong and getting stronger. But the Aztecs are still losing four or five games per year.

Last year, SDSU was almost done in by an atrocious start, but rebounded. They looked strong down the stretch, beating Boise State for a second straight year and winning the Potato Bowl in dominant fashion. But an 0-3 start and a strange blowout loss to UNLV still added a bit of a sour taste to the season. As an SDSU fan, you have to know how much better off your program is than at any point since the 1970s, but you probably still find yourself getting a little bit frustrated.

Every year more three-star recruits join the program; is there another breakthrough coming at some point, or are the Aztecs destined for an eight- or nine-win lot in life? There are worse things than that, but ... there are better things, too.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 89
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Eastern Illinois	N/A	19-40	L	12.9 - 40.0	L
7-Sep	at Ohio State	9	7-42	L	20.1 - 23.2	L
21-Sep	Oregon State	42	30-34	L	18.2 - 21.2	L
28-Sep	at New Mexico State	122	26-16	W	18.2 - 19.4	L
4-Oct	Nevada	88	51-44	W	30.9 - 33.3	L	-7.3
10-Oct	at Air Force	113	27-20	W	26.0 - 20.5	W	-0.8
26-Oct	Fresno State	49	28-35	L	32.3 - 14.4	W	3.4
2-Nov	New Mexico	110	35-30	W	28.1 - 30.6	L	3.5
9-Nov	at San Jose State	74	34-30	W	27.4 - 18.2	W	5.6
16-Nov	at Hawaii	82	28-21	W	28.4 - 23.9	W	6.9
23-Nov	Boise State	45	34-31	W	18.7 - 14.9	W	6.6
30-Nov	at UNLV	96	19-45	L	18.1 - 37.2	L	-0.8
21-Dec	Buffalo	80	49-24	W	39.5 - 18.0	W	4.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-10.8%	102	+1.6%	55	-2.4%	104
Points Per Game	29.8	58	31.7	92
Adj. Points Per Game	24.5	96	24.2	29

2. September was, shall we say, forgettable

It appears [Adam] Dingwell will be the starter this fall, and despite the presence of a new offensive coordinator (Bob Toledo; yes, that Bob Toledo), one can expect another heavy dose of the ground game. But Dingwell is still going to have to pass, and his ability to avoid sacks and prevent disasters will be a determining factor in just how much SDSU can get away with running the ball and moving the chains.

I said that in last year's SDSU preview. As it turned out, Dingwell couldn't pass. He completed 27 of 63 passes with four interceptions in the season-opening upset loss to Eastern Illinois, and he began the Ohio State game 0-for-5 with a pick.

Rocky Long and Bob Toledo turned to junior college transfer Quinn Kaehler; it took him a little while to get going -- he took a few too many sacks, he threw a devastating pick six late against Oregon State, and he looked rather average against New Mexico State -- but once he got his footing, and once an awful September officially ended, he began to figure things out.

By October, Kaehler had established a strong rapport with receiver Ezell Ruffin (23 catches for 454 yards and three touchdowns against Air Force, Fresno State, and New Mexico), and the Aztecs had figured out balance. They both rushed and passed for 200 yards six times in their final nine games. And after a brutal start, the offense was never amazing, but it was average enough to get out of the way of a stellar defense.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 26.0, SDSU 17.4 (minus-8.6)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 7 games): SDSU 27.4, Opponent 22.3 (plus-5.1)

SDSU's defense had occasional issues against the pass, but the Aztecs had one of the best mid-major run defenses in the country. And after the 0-3 start, SDSU finished 8-2.

Strong finishes are nothing new to SDSU, of course. They were 3-2 and finished 6-2 in 2010; they were 4-3 and won four of five to finish the regular season in 2011; and they started 2-3 and won seven in a row to finish the regular season in 2012.

Granted, there are typically some decent names on the schedule early on, but if the Aztecs can get this September thing figured out, they could finally crack the 10-win barrier.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.31	9	IsoPPP+	103.4	44
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.1%	94	Succ. Rt. +	80.1	117
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.0	71	Def. FP+	99.4	66
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	88	Redzone S&P+	76.5	118
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	27.9		ACTUAL	30	+2.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	51	112	118	99
RUSHING	69	115	115	104
PASSING	38	103	115	76
Standard Downs		110	116	52
Passing Downs		113	121	47

Q1 Rk	109	1st Down Rk	97
Q2 Rk	117	2nd Down Rk	120
Q3 Rk	75	3rd Down Rk	85
Q4 Rk	115

3. Ode to the six-yard gain

Even when things improved for SDSU's offense in 2013, it was because of big plays. The mundane, smaller plays that keep drives alive were woefully rare at times. It seemed as if every drive began on second-and-9 for the Aztecs, who ranked a dreadful 117th in Success Rate+ (as you see above). The big plays were huge -- SDSU ranked 44th in IsoPPP+, a measure of the magnitude of SDSU's successful plays -- but there weren't enough of the smaller ones.

Either in philosophy or simply execution, Bob Toledo's system seemed to emphasize running and short passing on standard downs. SDSU still ran the ball rather frequently on such downs, but when the Aztecs did pass, it was frequently to tight end Adam Roberts or fullback Chad Young. Ezell Ruffin and Colin Lockett were targeted with success at times, but Tim Vizzi and Dylan Denso were almost never targeted until second- or third-and-long.

In theory, this almost seems to be an emphasis on efficiency. Use your good running backs, dump off for short gains to the tight ends and running backs, and gain five to eight yards whenever possible. But it didn't work out that way. Passes to Young and tailback Adam Muema went almost nowhere, and without enough fear of deeper passing, opponents were able to focus on the run and stuff Muema and company near the line.

The result was an offense that had to rely on big plays to succeed. That worked out at times -- Muema and D.J. Pumphrey were explosive in the open field, and four of the top five wideouts averaged at least 14 yards per catch -- but it resulted in quite a few three-and-outs as well.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Quinn Kaehler

6'4, 210

Sr.

NR

232

389

3007

19

9

59.6%

26

6.3%

6.8

Adam Dingwell

27

68

318

0

5

39.7%

4

5.6%

4.0

Chase Favreau

6'1, 200

RSFr.

NR

Brad Odeman

6'3, 220

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

Christian Chapman

6'0, 180

Fr.

3 stars (5.5)

Nick Bawden

6'3, 225

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

4. Kaehler, probably

Quinn Kaehler in no way lit the world afire in his first year as SDSU's starter. He was certainly better than Adam Dingwell (who has since retired from football because of injuries), and his interception rate remained relatively low despite throwing a high percentage of his passes on passing downs.

But he was not dominant. He missed spring ball with an elbow injury, which in theory gave other candidates a chance to impress and make up ground. Instead, redshirt freshman Chase Favreau and JUCO transfer Brad Odeman, Jr., simply fought it out for the backup job. It appears Kaehler is the man moving forward, unless he starts the season like Dingwell did last year, anyway.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Adam Muema	RB				256	1244	15	4.9	5.4	36.3%
Donnel Pumphrey	RB	5'9, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	125	752	8	6.0	7.7	36.8%
Quinn Kaehler	QB	6'4, 210	Sr.	NR	23	91	1	4.0	5.6	30.4%
Chad Young	FB				22	112	3	5.1	4.9	31.8%
Chase Price	RB	5'8, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	17	78	0	4.6	3.6	41.2%
Dwayne Garrett	RB	6'0, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	8	38	0	4.8	4.1	37.5%
Ezell Ruffin	WR	6'1, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	8	4	0	0.5	2.5	25.0%
Adam Dingwell	QB				4	7	0	1.8	4.7	25.0%
Marcus Stamps	RB	6'1, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Rashaad Penny	RB	5'11, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Ezell Ruffin	WR-Z	6'1, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	107	68	1146	63.6%	24.9%	50.0%	10.7	317	11.4	108.7
Colin Lockett	WR-X				100	52	736	52.0%	23.3%	54.2%	7.4	31	7.7	69.8
Tim Vizzi	WR-Z				41	18	278	43.9%	9.5%	22.2%	6.8	9	5.2	26.4
Dylan Denso	WR-Z				35	20	265	57.1%	8.1%	36.7%	7.6	7	8.3	25.1
Adam Roberts	TE	6'3, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	34	20	217	58.8%	7.9%	66.7%	6.4	-37	5.9	20.6
Donnel Pumphrey	RB	5'9, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)	27	22	224	81.5%	6.3%	29.2%	8.3	-14	8.6	21.2
Chad Young	FB				24	15	70	62.5%	5.6%	65.2%	2.9	-114	2.9	6.6
Adam Muema	RB				21	18	98	85.7%	4.9%	55.0%	4.7	-93	4.7	9.3
Eric Judge	WR-X	6'1, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	20	13	218	65.0%	4.7%	43.8%	10.9	61	12.0	20.7
Robert Craighead	TE	6'3, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	8	5	32	62.5%	1.9%	0.0%	4.0	-29	1.6	3.0
Larry Clark	WR-Z	6'4, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	4	3	51	75.0%	0.9%	0.0%	12.8	17	14.7	4.8
Jemond Hazely	WR	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Lloyd Mills	WR	5'10, 165	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Kene Anigbogu	WR	6'4, 205	So.	NR
David Wells	TE	6'5, 250	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Darryl Richardson	TE	6'5, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Christian Cumberlander	WR-Z	6'3, 200	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Mikah Holder	WR	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Dionte Sykes	WR	6'2, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. How many hits can you take, Ezell and D.J.?

Whatever load D.J. Pumphrey can handle at 5'9, 170 pounds, he should get a chance to handle it in 2014. He lit a spark into the offense with his explosive (and not incredibly efficient) running in late-September and early-October, and he will pair with bigger backs like Chase Price, Marcus Stamps, and Dwayne Garrett to lead a running game that, in theory, has potential for both efficiency and explosiveness.

The line is reasonably experienced -- the Aztecs must replace all-conference tackle Bryce Quigley, but do return five players with starting experience (57 career starts) -- but wasn't that great outside of short-yardage situations. If experience plugs holes, the running game could improve even without Muema.

Meanwhile, Ruffin does return to anchor the receiving corps. He and Colin Lockett combined to see nearly half of all SDSU's targets last year, but he's the only one of the top four wideouts returning this time around. Unless Eric Judge or a newcomer steps up, Ruffin could see one of the country's heaviest receiver loads this fall.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	82.5	2.66	3.37	36.1%	75.4%	20.8%	83.2	5.7%	7.2%
Rank	120	102	50	96	25	83	90	92	71

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Bryce Quigley	LT				38	2nd All-MWC
Zach Dilley	LG	6'5, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	18
Japheth Gordon	LG				16
Jordan Smith	C	6'5, 280	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	14
Darrell Greene	RG	6'4, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12
Terry Poole	LT	6'5, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12
Nico Siragusa	LG	6'5, 320	So.	3 stars (5.6)	1
Garrett Corbett	RT	6'5, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Lenicio Noble	C	6'2, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Garrett Corbett	RT	6'5, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Arthur Flores	LT	6'5, 290	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Anthony Juarez	LT	6'6, 310	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Antonio Rosales	RT	6'4, 295	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Caleb Brady	OL	6'5, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Pearce Slater	RT	6'7, 340	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Sergio Phillips	OL	6'2, 285	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.13	55	IsoPPP+	98.0	71
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.8%	37	Succ. Rt. +	112.5	22
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.4	6	Off. FP+	106.5	5
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.8	112	Redzone S&P+	92.2	82
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.1		ACTUAL	19.0	-2.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	55	32	22	24
RUSHING	22	19	14	13
PASSING	100	40	37	57
Standard Downs		25	19	58
Passing Downs		50	39	81

Q1 Rk	38	1st Down Rk	16
Q2 Rk	16	2nd Down Rk	38
Q3 Rk	37	3rd Down Rk	60
Q4 Rk	52

6. Neither SDSU nor its opponent had an efficient offense

It would make sense that Rocky Long runs a program that is further along on defense than offense. Whereas the 3-3-5 defense has become a novelty or an underdog tactic in portions of the country, it is a way of life for Long, who mastered the defense as New Mexico's head coach and quickly installed it with success as Brady Hoke's SDSU defensive coordinator in 2009-10.

Despite preconceptions -- fewer linemen and more defensive backs equals speed over size and pass defense over run defense -- SDSU's defense was outstanding against the run last year. Ohio State and New Mexico, two of the best rushing teams in the country, averaged 6.4 yards per carry against the Aztecs last year; everybody else averaged 3.1. SDSU eliminated the run and took its chances with the pass, and while there were a few big pass plays along the way, this combination worked pretty well. SDSU held opponents to 5.2 yards per play or lower in nine of 13 games and, despite a lot of high-pace opponents, allowed more than 30 points just three times in the final 10 games after a shaky start.

With four of the top five linemen and five of the top seven linebackers returning, and with the front six adding an impact transfer and two three-star redshirt freshmen, it stands to reason that SDSU's run defense will be good once again. But the secondary has some questions to answer.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.5	2.66	3.34	36.1%	69.0%	18.8%	86	3.8%	5.4%
Rank	29	28	69	33	77	69	91	81	95

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dontrell Onuoha	DT	6'2, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	19.5	2.7%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jon Sanchez	DE	6'2, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	16.5	2.3%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Thomas	DE				13	16.0	2.3%	5.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Sam Meredith	DL	6'4, 275	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	8	11.5	1.6%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Alex Barrett	DT	6'3, 245	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	11.5	1.6%	5.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Everett Beed	DE	6'3, 255	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Paul Rodriguez	DE	6'7, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kenny Galea'i	NT	6'1, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Jordan Watson	DL	6'5, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Dakota Turner	DE	6'3, 245	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Christian Heyward (USC)	NT	6'3, 300	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nick Tenhaeff	OLB				13	60.0	8.4%	15.0	6.0	1	1	1	0
Josh Gavert	MLB	6'2, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	51.0	7.2%	6.0	3.0	1	3	1	1
Vaness Harris	OLB				12	45.0	6.3%	4.5	1.5	1	2	1	0
Cody Galea	OLB	6'3, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	28.5	4.0%	3.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Derek Largent	OLB	6'4, 240	Sr.	NR	12	26.0	3.7%	4.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Jake Fely	MLB	5'10, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	4	17.5	2.5%	1.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Micah Seau	MLB	6'3, 250	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Calvin Munson	OLB	6'1, 215	So.	2 stars (5.3)	11	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Fred Melifonwu	OLB	6'5, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tyler Morris	LB	6'3, 215	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Devante Davis	LB	6'2, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Donavin Buck	LB	6'5, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jay Henderson	LB	6'2, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

7. Replacing Tenhaeff

Linebacker Vaness Harris and end Jordan Thomas were solid players, combining for 10 tackles for loss, three sacks, and three passes defensed. They provided decent play-making ability, but they are exactly the type of player a good defense loses every year.

The biggest loss in the front six comes at the other OLB position. Nick Tenhaeff was an underrated play-maker for SDSU; in 2012-13, he logged 28 tackles for loss and nine sacks. Last fall, he was easily the Aztecs' best pass rusher on a defense that didn't get enough pressure on the quarterback overall.

Former end Cody Galea will now fill one of the OLB slots, and while his size will perhaps add further heft and prowess to the run defense -- the addition of USC transfer Christian Heyward to the rotation will go even further in that regard -- it might be up to newcomers like redshirt freshmen Fred Melifonwu and Dakota Turner and JUCO transfer Devante Davis to get pressure on the quarterback.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nat Berhe	AZTEC				13	79.5	11.2%	5.5	1	0	6	0	0
Eric Pinkins	WAR				13	62.0	8.7%	7	1	0	4	2	1
King Holder	CB				13	53.5	7.5%	2	0	0	9	0	0
Damontae Kazee	CB	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	34.5	4.9%	3	1	1	2	4	0
J.J. Whittaker	CB	5'10, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	28.0	3.9%	2	0	3	11	1	0
Marcus Andrews	WAR				13	26.5	3.7%	0.5	0	1	1	0	0
Rene Siluano	WAR				13	17.5	2.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Malik Smith	WAR	6'0, 170	So.	2 stars (5.3)	12	16.0	2.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gabe Lemon	WAR				6	15.5	2.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
David Lamar	CB	6'2, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	14.0	2.0%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Stan Sedberry	WAR	6'2, 210	Jr.	NR	12	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tony Bell	DB				6	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pierre Romain	CB	5'8, 165	Jr.	NR	13	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Hickman	WAR	6'0, 185	Jr.	NR	13	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Billy Vaughn, Jr.	DB	6'1, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	1	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Porter	AZTEC	5'11, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kendrick Mathis	WAR	6'0, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Kalan Montgomery	CB	6'1, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Billy Vaughn, Jr.	CB	6'1, 180	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Davontae Merriweather	DB	6'1, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Na'im McGee	AZTEC	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)

8. Strength gets stronger, weakness gets weaker

Thanks to the loss of both starting cornerbacks, the secondary was a question mark heading into 2013. But after a slow start, the trio of King Holder, Damontae Kazee, and J.J. Whittaker came along rather nicely. By the end of the season, these three had combined for 26 passes defensed (14 from Whittaker), seven tackles for loss, and five forced fumbles. Holder is gone, but Kazee and Whittaker return, and the cornerback position seems well accounted for in 2014. Now about those safeties ...

There is almost no experience at the safety position. The returning leading tackler is sophomore Malik Smith with 16.0. SDSU welcomes two three-star JUCO transfers (Davontae Merriweather and Na'im McGee) and a three-star redshirt freshman (Kalan Montgomery) to the rotation, but after a couple of years of stellar play from Nat Berhe and Eric Pinkins, the safeties are starting over.

In other words, last year's strength (run defense) could be even stronger while last year's weakness (big plays, especially through the air) could be even weaker.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Joel Alesi	6'0, 235	Sr.	53	39.4	2	21	17	71.7%
Seamus McMorrow	5'11, 195	Jr.	3	39.3	0	0	2	66.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Seamus McMorrow	5'11, 195	Jr.	47	62.1	18	3	38.3%
Wes Feer			21	63.3	9	2	42.9%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Wes Feer			21-25	5-7	71.4%	3-5	60.0%
Seamus McMorrow	5'11, 195	Jr.	18-20	0-3	0.0%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Colin Lockett	KR			31	24.5	0
Tim Vizzi	KR			7	16.3	0
Tim Vizzi	PR			17	12.5	2

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	104
Field Goal Efficiency	123
Punt Return Efficiency	54
Kick Return Efficiency	60
Punt Efficiency	81
Kickoff Efficiency	48
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	108

9. Strength gets weaker, weakness gets stronger

Special teams was a mixed bag last year. On one hand, you had a collection of strong field position weapons in return men Colin Lockett and Tim Vizzi and a solid kickoffs guy in Seamus McMorrow. On the other, you had the place-kicking situation. Wes Feer was 7-for-7 on field goals in the first three games of the year, then finished 1-for-5. Seamus McMorrow went 0-for-4. It made no sense, and it was an extreme weakness.

In 2014, McMorrow returns, and Lockett and Vizzi are gone. So ... it's the opposite situation as the SDSU defense -- strengths get weaker, and weaknesses (in theory) get stronger with experience.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Northern Arizona	NR
6-Sep	at North Carolina	36
20-Sep	at Oregon State	39
27-Sep	UNLV	109
3-Oct	at Fresno State	46
10-Oct	at New Mexico	116
18-Oct	Hawaii	93
1-Nov	at Nevada	62
8-Nov	Idaho	120
15-Nov	at Boise State	18
21-Nov	Air Force	105
29-Nov	San Jose State	82

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-3.1% (67)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	75
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-11 / -6.9
TO Luck/Game	-1.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (6, 5)

10. A familiar tale

In my first SDSU season preview back in 2011, I mentioned that I liked the Rocky Long hire as a short-term way of maintaining the momentum SDSU had established in the brief, two-year Brady Hoke era. I was unsure about the Aztecs' long-term prognosis under Long, but so far there has been a lot to like. Each year San Diego State loses a couple of high-caliber players -- in 2011, it was Ronnie Hillman, Ryan Lindley, and company; this year, it's Adam Muema, Colin Lockett, Nick Tenhaeff, etc. -- and produces another sound season, then signs a load of solid recruits in the offseason.

This program is in good shape, and recruiting has had a clear impact on depth and athleticism. The only question remaining, really, is whether SDSU can at some point break into double digits in the win column. It hasn't happened yet, usually because the offense starts slow and SDSU drops some games against quality non-conference foes early on.

We could certainly see something similar in 2014. Early trips to North Carolina and Oregon State and a mostly rebuilt corps of skill position players and safeties could certainly result in a 1-2 or 2-3 start. But with six quite winnable home games, six opponents projected 90th or worse, and plenty of team strengths -- run defense, explosiveness, an experienced quarterback, stellar cornerbacks -- SDSU should be counted on to get back to the eight- or nine-win range by the end of the year.

The Aztec calendar might not begin until October, and I doubt this is the year for a 10-win season, but a fifth straight bowl should very much be in the works.