The big 2014 Fresno State football preview: Feisty, with or without Carr

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Solidifying your gains

The order of wins and losses often dictates the narrative for your season. If you lose early before catching fire late, you end up with a story of redemption and, potentially, big hopes for the next year. If you win early and drop a couple of games late, things end up a little more sour, simply because the stakes got too high for you to maintain.

The narrative for Fresno State in 2013 was more latter than former. The Bulldogs began the season 10-0; with wins over San Jose State on the road and Utah State in the MWC title game, we know now that they would have qualified for a BCS bowl.

But a defense that had been decent for much of the year got absolutely torched in a shootout loss to SJSU, and while the Bulldogs went on to beat USU to take the conference title, the season ended with a thumping at the hands of USC in the Las Vegas Bowl.

If Fresno State had lost to USC in the season opener, fallen to SJSU a couple of weeks later, then ripped of 10 wins to finish the season, the end tale wouldn't have been quite as disappointing. Removing that context, however, you find a team that simply solidified its gains from the previous year. That alone makes it pretty encouraging.

When a new coach takes over and a program improves immediately and dramatically, it sets the bar in a pretty tough place. You're often expected to improve even more in Year 2, but from a stat perspective, the more likely result is regression. You bounce too high, too quickly, and you're probably going to fall back down to earth a bit. After four years of rather mediocre football at the end of the Pat Hill era, FS indeed surged in 2012 after Tim DeReyter took over as head coach. The Bulldogs jumped from 91st to 34th in the F/+ rankings and from 4-9 to 9-4 overall. They fell back to 49th in 2013, but 49th isn't 94th.

Fresno State indeed threatened to make a BCS bowl in 2013, but the Bulldogs were never a BCS-caliber team. The late-season losses just bumped them closer to where they should have been all along. And now they move forward having produced back-to-back top-50 results.

They must replace a trio of big names on offense, but DeRuyter has quickly built a sturdy, deep program. His defense should be experienced and aggressive, and if he can find a new, competent quarterback, a third straight top-50 result is likely.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 49
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	Rutgers	91	52-51	W	34.7 - 42.6	L
7-Sep	Cal Poly	N/A	41-25	W	19.0 - 21.9	L
20-Sep	Boise State	45	41-40	W	34.2 - 25.9	W
28-Sep	at Hawaii	82	42-37	W	29.7 - 28.2	W
5-Oct	at Idaho	116	61-14	W	34.9 - 19.9	W	2.8
19-Oct	UNLV	96	38-14	W	40.1 - 19.7	W	8.5
26-Oct	at San Diego State	89	35-28	W	21.8 - 29.9	L	7.4
2-Nov	Nevada	88	41-23	W	32.4 - 28.7	W	6.5
9-Nov	at Wyoming	102	48-10	W	37.2 - 16.5	W	10.3
23-Nov	New Mexico	110	69-28	W	41.4 - 21.6	W	11.3
29-Nov	at San Jose State	74	52-62	L	46.2 - 42.0	W	8.0
7-Dec	Utah State	32	24-17	W	41.3 - 13.2	W	15.3
21-Dec	vs. USC	11	20-45	L	18.7 - 32.7	L	11.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+9.9%	27	-1.3%	70	-2.6%	105
Points Per Game	43.4	6	30.3	87
Adj. Points Per Game	33.2	31	26.4	56

2. False impressions

Stats are anti-social sometimes. It's like they go out of their way to disagree with you. The structure of Fresno State's schedule -- noteworthy, nationally televised home games early, followed by a slog of regional mediocrity in October and November (yes, there were three more games on national television, but against inferior MWC opponents) -- allowed Fresno State to make an impression with early, narrow, high-scoring wins over Rutgers and Boise State before basically hiding underground.

Once they had cleared the Boise hurdle, the Bulldogs indeed looked poised for a potential undefeated finish and BCS bid, but Fresno State didn't actually play all that well early on. The defense was average at best, and while the offense was fast, it wasn't as productive as it probably should have been given the opponents. Our impression of the offense was skewed by pace, and our impression of the defense was about to end up faulty as well.

When the nationally televised games were over, Fresno State kicked things up a bit.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Fresno State 30.5, Opponent 27.7 (plus-2.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 7 games): Fresno State 37.2, Opponent 24.5 (plus-12.7)

Until the San Jose State game, Fresno's defense had played somewhere between decent and great for nine straight games. The offense, meanwhile, had hit its cruising altitude, averaging at least 7.0 yards per play in four of five games. The Bulldogs averaged 9.6 per play against SJSU, but the defense just had no answers, allowing 736 yards and 62 points.

Again, that loss was statistical justice of sorts -- Fresno State wasn't good enough to play in a BCS bowl and got served some massive regression-to-the-mean just in the nick of time -- but it also wasn't indicative of the way the Bulldogs had played defense for most of the last two months.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.20	38	IsoPPP+	100.9	55
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.6%	17	Succ. Rt. +	110.2	29
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.0	72	Def. FP+	101.4	41
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.8	23	Redzone S&P+	109.7	30
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.1		ACTUAL	22	-2.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	3	26	29	22
RUSHING	80	36	13	88
PASSING	1	43	44	9
Standard Downs		27	26	36
Passing Downs		45	47	94

Q1 Rk	24	1st Down Rk	14
Q2 Rk	35	2nd Down Rk	83
Q3 Rk	58	3rd Down Rk	73
Q4 Rk	83

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Derek Carr				454	659	5083	50	8	68.9%	11	1.6%	7.5
Brian Burrell	6'4, 219	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	12	51	0	0	58.3%	0	0.0%	4.3
Myles Carr	6'1, 211	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Zack Greenlee	6'1, 197	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)

3. Life without a Carr

Here's something else from those anti-social stats: Derek Carr was good, but he wasn't irreplaceable. The soon-to-be NFL Draft pick was absurdly prolific for Fresno State over the last three years; he completed two-thirds of his passes and threw for more than 12,700 yards from 2011-13, connecting on 113 touchdown passes with only 24 interceptions. Those are jarring numbers. Of course, he also threw more than 1,600 passes in that span -- it would take Jameis Winston more than four seasons to throw that many, and it would take Braxton Miller more than six. If you're throwing that many passes, you're going to pile up the yards.

Break Carr's numbers down into per-attempt chunks, however, and you find that while he was good, his production was a little more standard than it appeared. He averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, including (minimal) sacks. A good chunk of his passes were quick and easy. Fresno State was able to win 20 games in two years because he was also good at making tough passes at times and mostly avoiding crippling errors. But 7.5 yards per attempt is within replaceability range.

That's not to say that anybody can replace what Carr did, of course. If his replacements stink, his replacements stink. But if it turns out that Brian Burrell, Myles Carr, or Zack Greenlee (or a potential transfer) is competent and knows the offense, the yards will follow. Because Fresno State wants to pass. A lot.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Josh Quezada	RB	5'11, 214	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	155	807	6	5.2	4.4	40.0%
Marteze Waller	RB	5'11, 214	Jr.	NR	124	646	7	5.2	4.5	40.3%
Malique Micenheimer	RB	6'1, 232	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	31	148	2	4.8	7.2	32.3%
Derek Carr	QB				29	188	2	6.5	4.1	55.2%
Darryl Cash	WR	5'10, 191	Sr.	NR	18	67	1	3.7	3.7	27.8%
T.J. Thomas	LB				17	69	0	4.1	2.4	35.3%
Isaiah Burse	WR				10	74	2	7.4	6.7	60.0%
Brian Burrell	QB	6'4, 219	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	5	10	1	2.0	3.0	40.0%
Myles Carr	QB	6'1, 211	So.	2 stars (5.3)	4	26	0	6.5	1.8	75.0%
Dontel James	RB	5'11, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Kurt Scoby	RB	5'8, 176	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

4. Backs to burn

Carr also had one hell of a receiving corps at his disposal. In Davante Adams, Isaiah Burse, and Josh Harper, Carr had a trio of wideouts capable of carrying a large load and offering diverse sets of skills. Adams was relatively explosive (13.2 yards per catch) and incredibly reliable (75 percent catch rate). Burse was the recipient of a lot of those aforementioned short passes. And Harper was an in-betweener, capable of efficiency and occasional explosiveness.

They were all different shapes and sizes, too, but two of the three are now gone. The winner of the quarterback job will still have the steady, reliable Harper, but others will need to step into larger roles.

Not that there aren't candidates. Greg Watson and Justin Johnson are each former three-star recruits; so was Da'Mari Scott, who has been fighting the injury bug for most of his time in Fresno. Junior kick returner Dillon Scott moves back from the defensive side of the ball as well. There are options here, but there is uncertainty, as well.

Less uncertain: the backfield. Fresno State will still pass frequently, but the Bulldogs have a trio of interesting backs. Josh Quezada and Marteze Waller are basically the same player (efficiency backs with decent power and average explosiveness), and senior Malique Micenheimer is a home runs-and-strikeouts guy (high explosiveness, low efficiency). Throw in two young three-star prospects in Dontel James and Kurt Scoby, and offensive coordinator Dave Schramm has quite a few reasons to call a few more run plays in 2014.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Davante Adams	WR				175	131	1726	74.9%	27.6%	68.8%	9.9	252	9.7	205.4
Isaiah Burse	WR				140	100	1031	71.4%	22.1%	61.7%	7.4	-120	7.5	122.7
Josh Harper	WR	6'1, 184	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	112	79	1011	70.5%	17.7%	66.0%	9.0	97	9.0	120.3
Josh Quezada	RB	5'11, 214	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	58	51	290	87.9%	9.1%	61.2%	5.0	-244	5.3	34.5
Greg Watson	WR	5'10, 209	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	38	21	285	55.3%	6.0%	55.6%	7.5	10	7.8	33.9
Marcel Jensen	TE				33	26	353	78.8%	5.2%	59.1%	10.7	67	11.0	42.0
Marteze Waller	RB	5'11, 214	Jr.	NR	33	24	187	72.7%	5.2%	53.6%	5.7	-87	6.0	22.3
Aaron Peck	WR	6'3, 211	Jr.	NR	23	14	157	60.9%	3.6%	72.2%	6.8	-17	6.8	18.7
Justin Johnson	WR	6'1, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	8	65	72.7%	1.7%	60.0%	5.9	-26	7.0	7.7
Jerin McClendon	TE	6'8, 258	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	2	1	3	50.0%	0.3%	N/A	1.5	-11	0.0	0.4
Da'Mari Scott	WR	6'0, 199	So.	3 stars (5.6)	2	2	19	100.0%	0.3%	N/A	9.5	-1	0.0	2.3
Riley Barnes	TE	6'3, 261	Sr.	NR
Darryl Cash	WR	5'10, 191	Sr.	NR
Devonn Brown	WR	5'8, 143	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)
Dillon Root	WR	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Delvon Hardaway	WR	6'1, 181	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Darrell Fuery	WR	6'0, 186	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Carl Coleman	WR	5'11, 170	RSFr.	NR

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	106.4	3.12	3.46	40.5%	62.7%	15.9%	267.2	2.3%	1.5%
Rank	42	38	43	54	97	15	5	11	4

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Austin Wentworth	LT				43	1st All-MWC
Cody Wichmann	RG	6'6, 311	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	36
Lars Bramer	C				20
Justin Northern	RT	6'5, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13
Alex Fifita	LT	6'4, 307	Jr.	NR	11
Bo Bonnheim	C	6'2, 295	Jr.	NR	7
James Le'au	RG				1
Josh Tremblay	RT	6'5, 284	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Mike Saenz	RT				0
Sean Rubalcava	LG	6'4, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Allen Brown	RG	6'3, 301	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
David Patterson	LG	6'4, 289	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Elijah Cox	RG	6'4, 297	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Bobby Johnson	OL	6'5, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jacob Hicks	OL	6'5, 310	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. A great line loses a couple of pieces

Carr was in a quarterback-friendly system and had perhaps the best mid-major receiving corps in the country catching his passes. He was in the perfect position to succeed, especially when you throw in the fact that his line was quite good.

The quick passing helped to keep the sack rates low, but Fresno's run-blocking stats tell you this was a good line regardless of the system. Despite solid size and big running backs, Fresno State stunk in short-yardage situations last year, but while that does matter, their ability to prevent negative plays and open up a solid number of opportunities mattered more.

Losing all-conference tackle Austin Wentworth hurts, but FS does still bring back four players with starting experience (67 career starts), including three-year starting guard Cody Wichmann. The sacks will always be low in this system, and the run blocking should still be sound.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.24	104	IsoPPP+	97.0	81
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.6%	35	Succ. Rt. +	101.5	49
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.5	63	Off. FP+	97.5	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	69	Redzone S&P+	84.6	106
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.4		ACTUAL	23.0	-0.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	96	66	49	82
RUSHING	40	45	46	52
PASSING	119	82	59	103
Standard Downs		44	30	88
Passing Downs		89	102	39

Q1 Rk	32	1st Down Rk	70
Q2 Rk	56	2nd Down Rk	69
Q3 Rk	86	3rd Down Rk	67
Q4 Rk	98

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.6	2.63	3.26	33.1%	63.6%	23.0%	116.6	4.9%	10.3%
Rank	48	26	60	12	40	17	32	52	10

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nikko Motta	DE				13	36.0	4.7%	8.0	3.0	1	3	0	0
Tyeler Davison	DE	6'2, 304	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	34.0	4.4%	7.5	2.0	0	2	0	0
Andy Jennings	DE				13	28.0	3.6%	5.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
Todd Hunt	DE	6'3, 261	Jr.	NR	13	19.0	2.5%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Ben Letcher	DE				9	6.5	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Poyadue	NG	6'3, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ioane Sagapolu	NG	6'0, 301	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Nathan Madsen	DE	6'4, 260	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Claudell Louis	DE	6'4, 286	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)
Ryan Steele	NG	6'0, 301	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Nathan Madsen	DE	6'4, 260	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Sam Akoteu	DT	6'2, 290	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kyle Hendrickson	DE	6'4, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. Thin but feisty

Fresno State basically played four defensive linemen in its 3-4 system in 2013. Either the Bulldogs had awful depth or, because the top four never got injured (each played all 13 games), they never had to tap into the second string.

They are hoping for the latter, because two of last year's four are gone. DeRuyter and defensive coordinator Nick Toth have done some shuffling this year; big Tyeler Davison moves to defensive end (at least in certain situations), which means potential opportunity for nose guards like Maurice Poyadue and Ioane Sagapolu. There are certainly plenty of candidates here, but almost none of them actually played in 2013.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Karl Mickelsen	ILB	6'0, 229	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	79.5	10.3%	2.5	0.0	0	3	1	0
Kyrie Wilson	ILB	6'2, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	72.0	9.3%	5.0	3.5	0	5	1	0
Ejiro Ederaine	OLB	6'3, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	52.0	6.7%	16.5	10.0	0	2	1	1
Donavon Lewis	OLB	6'2, 239	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	38.0	4.9%	9.0	5.0	1	5	0	0
Patrick Su'a	ILB				13	26.5	3.4%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jeremiah Toma	ILB				12	18.5	2.4%	4.5	1.0	0	0	2	0
Nat Harrison	OLB				13	16.0	2.1%	2.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Brandon Hughes	OLB	6'3, 212	So.	2 stars (5.3)	13	12.0	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jeff Camilli	ILB	6'3, 264	So.	2 stars (5.4)	7	4.0	0.5%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
T.J. Thomas	ILB	6'0, 204	So.	NR	13	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jaamal Rose	OLB	6'2, 222	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Stephen Van Hook	OLB	6'1, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Robert Stanley	OLB	6'3, 224	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Michael Lazarus	ILB	6'2, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Xavier Ulutu	ILB	6'1, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Justin Green	OLB	6'4, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. Aggressive, aggressive, aggressive

Even considering the potential lack of depth up front, Fresno State's front seven still performed exactly as Tim DeRuyter's aggressive front seven is supposed to. Fresno State was fourth in the country with 108 tackles for loss. (The Bulldogs were also 24th in passes defensed.) They attacked from every direction, and the stats bear that out -- four linemen, four linebackers, and five defensive backs had at least four tackles for loss last fall.

And the linebacking corps was as deep as the line was thin. The inside linebackers batted passes and rounded up ball-carriers. The outside linebackers rushed the passer with abandon. And the second string did quite a bit of damage as well.

The second string is getting rebuilt in 2014, but that's tolerable when your first string returns intact. Fresno State's top four combined for 33 tackles for loss, 18.5 sacks, and 16 passes defensed; all four return. That's very good news for those who enjoy aggressive defense.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derron Smith	FS	5'11, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	73.5	9.5%	8	4	7	6	0	0
Charles Washington	SS	5'11, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	62.5	8.1%	8	2	1	2	1	0
Curtis Riley	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	48.0	6.2%	5.5	0	1	7	1	0
Jonathan Norton	CB				13	40.5	5.3%	4	1	0	3	0	0
L.J. Jones	CB				7	32.0	4.2%	4	0	2	7	0	1
Jamal Ellis	CB	5'11, 170	So.	NR	11	19.5	2.5%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Dalen Jones	SS	6'1, 193	So.	3 stars (5.6)	11	13.5	1.8%	2	1	1	1	1	0
Shannon Edwards	FS	5'11, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	10.0	1.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Kyrian Obidiegwu	DB	5'11, 204	Jr.	NR	9	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rodney Mathews	S	6'0, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Justin Holmes	S	6'2, 173	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Bryan Harper (Arizona)	CB	6'0, 170	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Corey Ferguson	DB	5'10, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Stratton Brown	DB	6'1, 183	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Malcolm Washington	DB	6'2, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Big plays, one way or another

Aside from the Rutgers game (in which running back Paul James erupted for 182 yards against the Bulldogs), when Fresno State's defense struggled in 2013, it was usually because of big plays in the passing game. It usually happened on early downs, when the defense was concentrated near the line of scrimmage. On passing downs, Fresno State would usually bitz, but form a rather conservative umbrella with its secondary. But in both of Fresno's losses, opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating over 200.0.

It's perhaps a little bit disconcerting, then, that Fresno State now has to replace two of its top three cornerbacks. With so much returning at linebacker, Fresno's 2013 strength might get even stronger; but despite the return of both starting safeties, the main weakness might get weaker unless somebody like Arizona transfer Bryan Harper or sophomore Jamal Ellis is able to make pretty rapid improvement.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Garrett Swanson	6'0, 213	Jr.	52	43.2	3	26	14	76.9%
Derek Carr			6	33.8	0	0	6	100.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Colin McGuire	5'10, 183	So.	89	54.5	15	3	16.9%
Garrett Swanson	6'0, 213	Jr.	8	64.5	6	0	75.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Colin McGuire	5'10, 183	So.	71-74	8-11	72.7%	3-5	60.0%
Blake Dunn			0-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Dillon Root	KR	6'0, 190	Jr.	28	21.5	0
Da'Mari Scott	KR	6'0, 199	So.	20	19.6	0
Isaiah Burse	PR			21	12.5	2
Davante Adams	PR			2	8.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	105
Field Goal Efficiency	91
Punt Return Efficiency	86
Kick Return Efficiency	124
Punt Efficiency	6
Kickoff Efficiency	118
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	52

9. Swanson's a keeper

Garrett Swanson was a fair catches machine in 2013; half of his punts were high enough to be fair-caught, but he still averaged more than 43 yards per punt. He is a lovely field position weapon.

Now ... about that return game. Kick returns were distinctly average, and punt returns ace Isaiah Burse is gone. Having a great punter is a major asset, but only if you're not giving away his gains with your own returns.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at USC	11
6-Sep	at Utah	45
13-Sep	Nebraska	35
20-Sep	Southern Utah	NR
26-Sep	at New Mexico	116
3-Oct	San Diego State	83
11-Oct	at UNLV	109
17-Oct	at Boise State	18
1-Nov	Wyoming	100
8-Nov	San Jose State	82
22-Nov	at Nevada	62
29-Nov	Hawaii	93

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-1.2% (61)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	71
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	1 / -0.7
TO Luck/Game	+0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (5, 8)

10. Survive the first three weeks

Fresno State will be breaking in a new quarterback, a relatively new receiving corps, and a couple of new pieces on defense just in time to face a brutal beginning to the season. Trips to USC and Utah, with a visit from Nebraska, are an impressive way to start; even a top-50 team could start 1-2 or 0-3.

But unless things really fall apart at the beginning, or if there isn't a decent quarterback on the roster, Fresno State will likely be favored in eight of its last nine games. Struggle early, then roll late: it's the opposite of Fresno State's 2013 season, but it's the most likely scenario here.

Tim DeRuyter is building a rather entertaining squad in Fresno. He is bringing in three-star recruits, and he has installed both a high-paced offense and a high-octane defense. Fresno State tries to go big at all times, even while making small throws, and that is pretty fun even when it doesn't work. But it's working quite a bit, too, and it should once again in 2014, Carr or no Carr.