The big 2014 Utah State football preview: Welcome back, Chuckie :)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. They survived

Head coach Gary Andersen, who needed just three years to craft a top-25 team from a destitute program, left for Wisconsin.

He took ace defensive coordinator Dave Aranda with him.

Running back Joe Hill got hurt in Game 5.

And then star quarterback Chuckie Keeton got hurt in Game 6.

Midway through the 2013 season, Utah State was led by a first-year head coach and a freshman quarterback. And the Aggies finished the regular season with five consecutive wins, beat out Boise State -- Boise State! -- for the MWC Mountain Division title, narrowly lost at Fresno State in the conference title game, beat Jordan Lynch and Northern Illinois in a bowl game, and finished 32nd in the F/+ rankings, only 15 spots below where they ranked in 2012.

Utah State survived in 2013 when it had every excuse in the world not to. I'm not sure you can say anything more flattering about any program. But now more tests come in 2014.

2. Skill, timing, and luck

There is so much randomness in college football. So much of your fate in a given year is determined by the timing of injuries nad the success of others.

Despite losing Andersen, Aranda, and a few defensive stars from the 2012 squad that ranked ninth in Def. F/+, Utah State's defense actually improved to eighth in 2013. It was a remarkable feat, one that could have helped USU maintain its top-20 overall ranking. But the offense lost the one guy it couldn't lose. And not only did the Aggies lose Chuckie Keeton, but they lost him during the BYU game, one week before the Boise State game. Quarterback Craig Harrison was thrown into the fire at the worst possible time -- overwhelmed, he went just 25-for-58 for 192 yards against the Cougars and Broncos -- and failed, giving way to freshman Darell Garretson. If Keeton is lost either before the season (with plenty of time to adapt to his absence) or after the Boise State game, maybe USU scores another win and gets to double digits for the second consecutive year.

Regardless, Keeton's injury means that USU is more prepared to account for his absence after 2014. That's good. And it appears he's on track to be completely healthy this fall. That's even better.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-5 | Adj. Record: 12-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 32
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	at Utah	31	26-30	L	35.8 - 32.5	W
7-Sep	at Air Force	113	52-20	W	32.4 - 15.6	W
14-Sep	Weber State	N/A	70-6	W	34.3 - 10.0	W
21-Sep	at USC	11	14-17	L	16.8 - 17.7	L
27-Sep	at San Jose State	74	40-12	W	25.7 - 21.0	W	9.6
4-Oct	BYU	30	14-31	L	23.6 - 21.4	W	9.4
12-Oct	Boise State	45	23-34	L	24.8 - 23.9	W	6.2
19-Oct	at New Mexico	110	45-10	W	26.6 - 14.5	W	3.8
2-Nov	Hawaii	82	47-10	W	30.4 - 20.6	W	5.9
9-Nov	at UNLV	96	28-24	W	29.8 - 26.8	W	5.6
23-Nov	Colorado State	66	13-0	W	9.6 - (-0.1)	W	7.1
30-Nov	Wyoming	102	35-7	W	16.4 - 6.5	W	8.9
7-Dec	at Fresno State	49	17-24	L	12.4 - 22.3	L	4.5
26-Dec	vs. Northern Illinois	60	21-14	W	17.8 - 14.1	W	3.3

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-7.4%	93	+18.3%	8	+2.8%	12
Points Per Game	31.8	50	17.1	7
Adj. Points Per Game	24.0	99	17.6	4

3. 7.7 points above replacement value

The idea of a "replacement player" is a common one in advanced stats, mostly because of VORP. It basically gauges the value of a player by comparing him to your standard-issue player at a given position, someone just about any team can land.

Obviously the idea of the "replacement player" is tricky at the college level. A replacement-level player at a powerhouse like Alabama is simply going to be different than someone with the same term at a mid-major program. That said, we got a pretty clear glimpse of Chuckie Keeton's value when he was lost for the season with a knee injury against BYU.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Utah State 29.0, Opponent 19.4 (plus-9.6)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 9 games): Utah State 21.3, Opponent 16.6 (plus-4.7)

Adjusted Score is a way to measure game-to-game performance while taking both opponent and breaks into account. With Keeton, Utah State's offense was a little bit above average. Keeton had minimal big-play threats in the receiving corps, but he was able to efficiently move the ball against teams not named USC. (Almost nobody moved the ball efficiently against USC.)

Without Keeton, Utah State was 7.7 points worse. After averaging at least 5.6 yards per play four times in their first five games, the Aggies did so only three times the rest of the way (and against New Mexico, Hawaii, and UNLV). In their last four games of the year, they averaged just 3.8 yards per play. And the defense was so incredible that they still went 3-1 in that stretch.

With Keeton, Utah State was a legitimate top-25 team, one with an efficient offense and ridiculous defense. Without him, USU was all defense.

In 2014, the Aggies will be forced to reload a bit on the defensive side of the ball, and the offense might need to carry a bit more weight. And while Keeton will probably be healthy, it's probably not a good idea for him to have to carry 10 other offensive players in every game. He'll need some help.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.15	60	IsoPPP+	97.2	79
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.4%	90	Succ. Rt. +	90.6	93
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.5	8	Def. FP+	103.4	21
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	64	Redzone S&P+	89.1	99
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.0		ACTUAL	19	-6.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	60	96	94	94
RUSHING	52	82	95	77
PASSING	66	97	90	96
Standard Downs		101	98	86
Passing Downs		75	76	65

Q1 Rk	97	1st Down Rk	107
Q2 Rk	78	2nd Down Rk	99
Q3 Rk	72	3rd Down Rk	68
Q4 Rk	120

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Darell Garretson	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	125	207	1436	10	7	60.4%	19	8.4%	5.8
Chuckie Keeton	6'2, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	136	196	1388	18	2	69.4%	9	4.4%	6.6
Craig Harrison	6'2, 203	Sr.	NR	35	74	434	2	1	47.3%	4	5.1%	5.3
Kent Myers	6'0, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Joey DeMartino	RB				221	1221	13	5.5	6.4	38.0%
Robert Marshall	RB				94	415	1	4.4	3.3	36.2%
Joe Hill	RB	5'11, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	53	252	1	4.8	5.2	34.0%
Chuckie Keeton	QB	6'2, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	46	285	2	6.2	5.4	50.0%
Darell Garretson	QB	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	41	149	0	3.6	3.9	31.7%
JoJo Natson	WR	5'7, 151	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	29	108	3	3.7	4.5	37.9%
Kennedy Williams	RB	5'8, 160	So.	NR	21	68	0	3.2	3.8	33.3%
Kelvin Lee	RB	5'10, 187	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	14	54	0	3.9	5.2	21.4%
Rashad Hall	RB	6'1, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Karris Johnson	RB	5'11, 208	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Justin Hervey	RB	5'9, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
LaJuan Hunt	RB	5'9, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. Where are the big plays?

When Keeton got injured, college football Twitter was crestfallen. Few players were more fun to watch than the senior from Texas, and thanks to the increased prevalence of USU games on national television, we saw quite a bit of him. His decision-making is sound, his elusiveness is top-notch (hopefully this remains the case post-injury), and his ability to make plays out of the pocket is as strong as almost anybody's in college football.

But his supporting case got terribly depleted following the departure of running back Kerwynn Williams (2,209 rushing and receiving yards in 2012) and his top four wideouts. With less experience and known play-making ability around him, he found himself throwing shorter passes to players less capable of breaking big plays. He completed more than two-thirds of his passes, but for just 10.2 yards per completion.

Keeton's elusiveness might be just fine in 2014, but he needs as much help as he can get from his supporting cast, and considering last year's top two rushers are gone, as are two of the top three wideouts, there's nothing saying he'll get that help.

That Joe Hill is back will help. He also suffered a season-ending injury midway through the season, and he showed reasonably decent explosiveness in 2012-13. (Anything over 5.0 highlight yards per opportunity is pretty good; he had 5.8 in 2012 and 5.2 in 2013.) But if he isn't quite as strong post-injury, Keeton and offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven will have to turn to an almost completely untested batch of backs.

It's the same story at wide receiver. Travis Reynolds, easily the biggest big-play threat in the receiving corps, is gone. Ronald Butler showed decent explosiveness, but Bruce Natson and Brandon Swindall were used almost entirely close to the line of scrimmage. Receivers had a lovely spring -- Swindall was explosive, and former three-star recruits Alex Wheat and Braelon Roberts looked good -- but that came against a rebuilt set of USU corners. We'll see if they can do it against others, too.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Travis Van Leeuwen	WR-X				92	52	661	56.5%	20.2%	54.3%	7.2	-13	8.4	64.9
JoJo Natson	WR-T	5'7, 151	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	79	58	385	73.4%	17.3%	51.5%	4.9	-274	5.3	37.8
Travis Reynolds	WR				72	51	832	70.8%	15.8%	56.3%	11.6	243	10.8	81.7
Brandon Swindall	WR-X	6'4, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	55	29	285	52.7%	12.1%	44.9%	5.2	-105	5.6	28.0
Ronald Butler	WR-Z	6'0, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	36	24	346	66.7%	7.9%	32.0%	9.6	60	8.7	34.0
Joey DeMartino	RB				29	13	125	44.8%	6.4%	46.2%	4.3	-67	4.2	12.3
D.J. Tialavea	TE				22	17	93	77.3%	4.8%	57.9%	4.2	-96	4.3	9.1
Keegan Andersen	TE				22	14	167	63.6%	4.8%	60.0%	7.6	-4	3.5	16.4
Joe Hill	RB	5'11, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	15	13	94	86.7%	3.3%	53.3%	6.3	-43	6.2	9.2
Shaan Johnson	WR-T	6'1, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	7	72	70.0%	2.2%	83.3%	7.2	-9	5.9	7.1
Wyatt Houston	TE	6'5, 245	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	7	118	70.0%	2.2%	50.0%	11.8	37	8.7	11.6
Jefferson Court	TE	6'3, 238	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)
Alex Wheat, Jr.	WR-Z	6'4, 218	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Tyler Weese	WR-T	6'2, 195	So.	NR
Braelon Roberts	WR-X	6'3, 173	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Hayden Weichers	WR-T	6'0, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Hunter Sharp	WR	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Devonte Robinson	WR	6'2, 184	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Landon Horne	TE	6'3, 230	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Marcus Mosley	TE	6'4, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Tyler Fox	WR	5'11, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92	2.69	3.19	37.3%	62.8%	23.5%	84.0	6.1%	7.7%
Rank	97	97	72	85	96	118	88	98	75

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Tyler Larsen	C				52	1st All-MWC
Eric Schultz	RT				46
Jamie Markosian	RG				27
Kevin Whimpey	LT	6'5, 295	Sr.	NR	26
Kyle Whimpey	OG				18
Sini Tauauve'a	LG				9
Logan Malohifo'ou	LT	6'6, 304	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Bill Vavau	RG	6'4, 314	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Joe Summers	C	6'2, 294	Sr.	NR	0
Taani Fisilau	LG	6'2, 293	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Jake Simonich	RT	6'5, 286	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Andrew Chen	OT	6'3, 271	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Tyshon Mosley	OL	6'5, 305	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Cody Boyer	OL	6'6, 260	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. Scary inexperience up front

Perhaps the most alarming part of Keeton's supporting cast in 2014 comes up front, where the Aggies will be forced to replace five of six players with starting experience. Those accounting for 152 career starts, including all-conference center Tyler Larsen, are gone. Only two-year starting guard Kevin Whimpey returns.

The good news, as it were, is that USU's line stats have been pretty poor for a couple of years now. The numbers can only fall so far. But again, when you've got a quarterback coming off of a knee injury and a skill position cast full of potential but almost no known production, an inexperienced line is the last thing you want to have to deal with.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.05	19	IsoPPP+	112.6	14
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.9%	15	Succ. Rt. +	117.5	11
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.7	15	Off. FP+	105.4	14
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.1	3	Redzone S&P+	180.5	1
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	29.6		ACTUAL	30.0	+0.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	12	7	11	7
RUSHING	8	1	12	2
PASSING	52	29	23	38
Standard Downs		7	13	11
Passing Downs		10	10	26

Q1 Rk	13	1st Down Rk	7
Q2 Rk	8	2nd Down Rk	6
Q3 Rk	10	3rd Down Rk	18
Q4 Rk	5

6. I want to marry this defense

The state of Utah knows defense. From 2007-13, 11 defenses from the state have ranked in the Def. F/+ top 30. Six have come in the last three years.

1. 2013 Utah State (No. 8)
2. 2008 Utah (No. 8)
3. 2012 Utah State (No. 9)
4. 2012 BYU (No. 10)
5. 2007 Utah (No. 14)
6. 2013 BYU (No. 15)
7. 2011 Utah (No. 16)
8. 2007 BYU (No. 20)
9. 2009 Utah (No. 29)
10. 2013 Utah (No. 30)
11. 2009 BYU (No. 30)

The 2013 Utah State defense had the highest actual F/+ rating (plus-18.3 percent) of the bunch. And again, the Aggies did this despite losing defensive coordinator Dave Aranda, perhaps the best young defensive coordinator in the nation, to Wisconsin. Aranda's replacement, Todd Orlando, who had spent the previous two seasons coordinating another rather successful defense at FIU, not only kept USU's defense from dropping too far ... he made it even better.

The 2013 Aggies were simply stout. They were quite possibly the toughest defense in the country against the run. They had the size, depth, and talent up front to occupy blockers with three down linemen. They had a foursome of linebackers that lived in the backfield (not literally, as that would be a penalty ... unless ...). They had two of the most active cornerbacks in college football and a pair of safeties that made plays both behind the line and 30 yards downfield. This was a sound, sound unit. It made Utah State incredibly fun to watch despite the low scores on the scoreboard. There were occasional breakdowns when it comes to big pass plays, but that's only so much of an issue when you are so successful at making teams one-dimensional.

Orlando faces a relatively stiff test in 2014, however. The Aggies return quite a few difference-makers -- outside linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Nick Vigil, end B.J. Larsen, inside linebacker Zach Vigil, safety Brian Suite -- and Utah State redshirted a few defenders in anticipation of attrition. Still, six pretty damn good starters are gone; we'll see if the replacements are far enough along in their development to avoid a drop-off.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	135.6	2.25	2.76	30.4%	65.5%	24.4%	133.2	5.7%	7.8%
Rank	1	2	17	3	56	11	13	38	41

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Paul Piukala	DE				14	27.0	3.5%	5.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
AJ Pataiali'i	NG				14	24.5	3.1%	3.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
B.J. Larsen	DE	6'5, 275	Sr.	NR	14	22.5	2.9%	8.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Nielsen	DE	6'5, 265	Jr.	NR	14	22.0	2.8%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Ricky Ali'ifua	NG	6'3, 275	So.	2 stars (5.2)	13	15.5	2.0%	4.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Connor Williams	DE				10	15.0	1.9%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Elvis Kamana-Matagi	NG	6'2, 298	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	9.5	1.2%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Travis Seefeldt	NG	6'2, 302	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	6.0	0.8%	3.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
Jake Gallegos	DE	6'2, 271	So.	NR
Edmund Faimalo	DE	6'3, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
John Taylor	DE	6'2, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Siua Taufa	DE	6'1, 260	So.	2 stars (5.4)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jake Doughty	ILB				14	95.0	12.2%	13.0	2.0	1	3	2	1
Zach Vigil	ILB	6'2, 232	Sr.	NR	14	86.5	11.1%	12.5	2.0	1	1	3	0
Kyler Fackrell	OLB	6'5, 245	Jr.	NR	14	59.5	7.6%	13.0	5.0	1	1	2	0
Nick Vigil	OLB	6'2, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	14	39.5	5.1%	8.5	5.5	1	1	0	0
Tavaris McMillian	LB	6'2, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	7	9.5	1.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Terrell Thompson	LB				10	6.5	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Keylon Hollis	OLB				9	6.0	0.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Torrey Green	ILB	6'2, 220	Jr.	NR	7	4.5	0.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jarom Baldomero	ILB	6'0, 230	Jr.	NR	13	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
La'Bradford Harold	OLB	5'11, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	7	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Michael Okonkwo	OLB	6'1, 222	Jr.	NR
Alex Huerta	ILB	6'2, 214	RSFr.	NR
Sunia Tauteloli	LB	6'0, 225	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Chase Christiansen	OLB	6'2, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)
Ian Togiai	ILB	6'2, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)

7. A test of depth

• Pro: B.J. Larsen and three of four awesome linebackers return. And while there are two starters gone up front, second-stringers Jordan Nielsen and Rick Ali'fua return.
• Con: Utah State had no backup linebackers last year. The Aggies got away with completely unproven depth because the starters didn't miss any playing time. And for all we know, that depth might prove itself just fine when given the opportunity. Any injuries whatsoever will force them to prove that, however, and there are nothing but unknowns outside of the top tier.
• Pro: USU has earned the benefit of the doubt after the last two years.
• Con: Two years ago, USU ranked 72nd in Def. F/+. The Aggies have only had a great defense for two years; it's not a birthright, and new blood simply might not be as good as the old blood.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Maurice Alexander	FS				13	59.0	7.6%	9	3.5	1	6	1	0
Brian Suite	FS	6'3, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	14	57.0	7.3%	1	0	5	6	1	0
Nevin Lawson	CB				14	45.0	5.8%	5	0	4	14	1	0
Tay Glover-Wright	CB				14	41.5	5.3%	5	1	0	10	1	0
Quinton Byrd	CB				14	34.0	4.4%	2	0	1	9	0	0
Frankie Sutera	FS	6'1, 201	Sr.	NR	14	19.5	2.5%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Cameron Sanders	SS				13	14.5	1.9%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jeremy Morris	CB				14	11.5	1.5%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Rashard Stewart	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	11.0	1.4%	2.5	1	0	2	0	0
Clayton Christensen	S				14	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Centers	FS	5'9, 190	So.	NR	13	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ladale Jackson	CB	5'11, 178	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Marwin Evans	SS	6'1, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Daniel Gray	CB	5'1, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Marquan Ellison	CB	5'11, 175	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Myron Turner	FS	5'11, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Deshane Hines	CB	5'10, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Aaron Wade	S	6'2, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Potential weakness in the secondary

I can't work up too much concern about the front seven even with a little bit of turnover. But there's a lot of turnover in the secondary. Not only three of four starters gone, but four of the top six backups are gone, too. Maurice Alexander was one of the most successfully aggressive safeties in the country; he was a huge asset near the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, corners Nevin Lawson, Tay Glover-Wright, and Quinton Byrd combined for not only five picks and 33 passes defensed, but ALSO 12 tackles for loss. The secondary did occasionally give up some big plays, but they were easily effective enough to counter that.

Now Orlando (also the safeties coach) and Kendrick Shaver (corners coach and defensive passing game coordinator) start over.

There are some athletes here -- among others, Ladale Jackson is a former three-star recruit, and Daniel Gray started briefly at Tennessee in 2012 -- but the experience level goes from major asset to liability. We'll see how much of USU's recent success is because of system and how much is because of a unique confluence of talent.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Jaron Bentrude	6'1, 209	Sr.	73	39.8	6	39	31	95.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jake Thompson	6'0, 200	So.	86	62.4	42	0	48.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Nick Diaz	5'8, 182	Sr.	51-52	13-17	76.5%	4-6	66.7%
Jake Thompson	6'0, 200	So.	0-0	0-0	N/A	1-3	33.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tay Glover-Wright	KR			19	22.6	0
Travis Reynolds	KR			4	16.5	0
JoJo Natson	PR	5'7, 151	Jr.	31	11.3	2
Devin Centers	PR	5'9, 190	So.	2	2.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	12
Field Goal Efficiency	73
Punt Return Efficiency	6
Kick Return Efficiency	86
Punt Efficiency	34
Kickoff Efficiency	6
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	39

9. Just find a return man...

Utah State was so good at the little things in 2013. The Aggies stiffened near the goal line, and they were good to great in the field position battle. Really, all they lacked was a kick returner, and they'd have had a top-10 special teams unit.

The strengths of this unit return: punter Jaron Bentrude doesn't have the longest kicks in the world, but opponents get almost no return opportunities against him. Bruce Natson is one of the best punt returners in the country. And while Nick Diaz could stand to be a little more consistent on shorter kicks, he's solid.

If the Aggies can unearth a good kick return man (Natson perhaps?), this should once again be a great unit.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	at Tennessee	57
6-Sep	Idaho State	NR
13-Sep	Wake Forest	89
20-Sep	at Arkansas State	84
3-Oct	at BYU	32
11-Oct	Air Force	105
18-Oct	at Colorado State	85
25-Oct	UNLV	109
1-Nov	at Hawaii	93
7-Nov	at Wyoming	100
15-Nov	New Mexico	116
21-Nov	San Jose State	82
29-Nov	at Boise State	18

Five-Year F/+ Rk	0.0% (54)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	107
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	11 / 4.6
TO Luck/Game	+2.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	7 (3, 4)

10. Don't take Chuckie away from us again, please

We'll begin to learn if Utah State is truly built for the long haul this year. Taking a moribund program (here's your annual reminder that the Aggies won 15 games in the six years before Gary Andersen took over and didn't have a winning record from 1997 to 2011) and putting together a short span of success is hard but reasonably common. Sustaining that success, especially through a coaching change, is anything but common.

Matt Wells passed his first test, both in how he crafted his staff and how his first team played; but as the players most closely associated with USU's 27 wins in three years begin to graduate and depart, it's up to Wells to replenish the stock. He might pass that test, but even with the return of Chuckie Keeton, there is quite a bit of uncertainty here.

I think the Aggies are still in pretty good shape for 2014, however. The front seven should still be strong enough to key a decent defense even if the pass defense falls apart to a certain degree, and the return of both Keeton and Joe Hill should make the backfield just effective enough to move the ball a bit even if the line is sketchy. Injuries in the backfield or in the front seven could be devastating, but that goes for a lot of teams. The first string, as we know it, is pretty good.

But seriously, Sports God, don't injure Chuckie Keeton in his last year. We don't ask for much, but we want to watch him for another 13-14 games.