The big 2014 Louisiana Tech football preview: New life with new pieces

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1. That wasn't very much fun

The last six seasons for Louisiana Tech have been ... confusing. We use recent history to determine the health of a program; it tells us a lot more than simply looking at last year's results. But what do you make of a program that...

• Went 8-5 in 2008, winning as many games as it had in 2006-07 combined and reaching its first bowl game in seven years.
• Fell to 4-8 in 2009 and lost its coach (Derek Dooley) to a bigger school (Tennessee) anyway.
• Brought in Air Raid gunny sergeant Sonny Dykes, laid low for a year (5-7 in 2010), then broke through with an 8-5 season and a Poinsettia Bowl bid in 2011.
• Started 9-1 in 2012, with only a last-second loss to Texas A&M, and reached 19th in the country before late losses to Utah State and San Jose State, then failed to secure a bowl bid at 9-3.
• Lost Dykes to Cal and brought in Dykes' opposite (in terms of background, offensive prowess, defensive prowess, you name it), Skip Holtz.
• Played terribly for a good portion of 2013 but went 3-1 in the middle.

That's a confusing résumé right there. In the end, Tech has done well enough recently to rank first in Conference USA in the five-year F/+ rankings (which is why the Bulldogs are the last C-USA team getting previewed here). But among current CUSA teams, they ranked ahead of only FIU, Southern Miss, UTEP, and UAB last year. The 2013 Bulldogs were inexperienced up front, unstable behind center, and glitchy on defense.

With a new, familiar name leading the defense and perhaps more stability at quarterback, can the Bulldogs bounce into the top half of their league? Your guess is as good as mine. I know this isn't a particularly good look:

... but I know that fortunes change rapidly in Conference USA, too.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 112
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at N.C. State	92	14-40	L	24.4 - 44.2	L
7-Sep	Lamar	N/A	27-14	W	19.0 - 37.5	L
12-Sep	Tulane	70	15-24	L	17.6 - 24.1	L
21-Sep	at Kansas	101	10-13	L	26.1 - 32.2	L
28-Sep	Army	100	16-35	L	23.0 - 31.1	L	-11.8
5-Oct	at UTEP	119	38-35	W	23.4 - 35.3	L	-10.2
19-Oct	North Texas	51	13-28	L	32.9 - 28.5	W	-5.6
26-Oct	at Florida International	125	23-7	W	15.3 - 26.3	L	-6.6
9-Nov	Southern Miss	120	36-13	W	23.2 - 31.9	L	-7.1
16-Nov	at Rice	69	14-52	L	28.1 - 41.1	L	-8.1
23-Nov	Tulsa	94	14-24	L	16.7 - 31.0	L	-8.5
30-Nov	at UTSA	67	10-30	L	11.1 - 31.4	L	-13.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-15.1%	116	-11.0%	104	-0.3%	73
Points Per Game	20.8	105	24.7	47
Adj. Points Per Game	21.7	107	32.9	103

2. It wasn't that bad in the middle

The start and finish of the season for Louisiana Tech were absolutely dreadful. In the first two games, the Bulldogs were outgained by 221 yards by an N.C. State team that turned out to be quite poor, then crept by undermanned Lamar squad. At the end of the season, against Rice, Tulsa, and UTSA, they averaged 4.4 yards per play while allowing 5.9 and were outscored by a combined 106-38. In these five games, Tech was one of the worst teams in FBS.

In the middle seven, they weren't particularly good, but they were respectable.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 2 games): Opponent 40.9, Tech 21.7 (minus-19.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 7 games): Opponent 29.9, Tech 23.1 (minus-6.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 3 games): Opponent 34.5, Tech 18.6 (minus-15.9)

From October 5 to November 9, Tech went 3-1; yes, the Bulldogs only beat three teams ranked 100th or worse, but they also put up a strong fight against a good North Texas team. By no definition was Tech good at really any point in 2013, but you can draw hope from the Bulldogs' level of play in the midsection of the season.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	75	IsoPPP+	89.8	111
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.9%	107	Succ. Rt. +	84.2	113
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.7	87	Def. FP+	95.4	103
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.1	120	Redzone S&P+	70.4	122
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.0		ACTUAL	29	+3.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	95	119	114	102
RUSHING	74	83	87	89
PASSING	89	125	118	100
Standard Downs		120	110	122
Passing Downs		104	107	56

Q1 Rk	125	1st Down Rk	118
Q2 Rk	99	2nd Down Rk	109
Q3 Rk	121	3rd Down Rk	96
Q4 Rk	62

3. A pass-first offense that couldn't pass

My biggest concern for Louisiana Tech in 2013 was the extreme stylistic dissonance that was going to occur in moving from Dykes' pass-heavy offense to the slow, run-first offense Skip Holtz has espoused through much of his head coaching career. But then Holtz brought in Marshall offensive co-coordinator Tony Petersen to run his offense; Marshall's 2012 offense was insanely pass-heavy and fast-paced, and Petersen said he wanted to bring something similar to Ruston. This was a bit of a departure for Holtz, but with the personnel that Dykes required, it seemed like it might be a decent fit.

For one reason or another, it wasn't. With two new quarterbacks (redshirt freshman Ryan Higgins and former Texas Tech Red Raider Scotty Young) splitting snaps, with a pretty new offensive line, and with a receiving corps that featured no go-to receivers (seven players were targeted between 2.5 and 5.0 times per game in 2013, and only two averaged better than 6.2 yards per target). As it had under Dykes, Tech's offense was pass-first, but the Bulldogs couldn't pass.

Unless a true freshman seizes control of the job this August, this year's quarterbacks are last year's quarterbacks. Higgins struggled with both injuries and interceptions in 2013, while Young was ultra-conservative in his decision-making (8.4 yards per completion, only two interceptions) but still only completed 53 percent of his passes.

The receiving corps loses five of its top eight targets, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. New blood might be a good idea for this unit, and in LSU transfer Paul Turner, redshirt freshman Carlos Henderson, and JUCO transfer Sanford Seay, that new blood might be pretty good. Turner adds an element of speed that Tech didn't really have in 2013, and really, as long as the pass protection doesn't completely fall apart with a revamped line, the passing game should improve. Considering the numbers -- under five yards per pass attempt, 30 sacks, 10 touchdowns to 15 picks, No. 125 Passing S&P+ ranking -- it probably can't get worse.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Ryan Higgins

6'1, 206

So.

3 stars (5.5)

166

281

1715

6

13

59.1%

25

8.2%

5.0

Scotty Young

6'2, 221

Sr.

4 stars (5.8)

87

165

733

4

2

52.7%

5

2.9%

4.1

Price Wilson

6'1, 200

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

Alex Woodall

6'3, 225

Fr.

2 stars (5.4)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Kenneth Dixon	RB	5'10, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	151	917	4	6.1	6.6	45.0%
Tevin King	RB	5'6, 158	So.	2 stars (5.2)	93	539	1	5.8	7.2	41.9%
Blake Martin	RB	5'10, 197	Jr.	NR	54	267	2	4.9	6.3	33.3%
Ryan Higgins	QB	6'1, 206	So.	3 stars (5.5)	37	195	3	5.3	4.7	45.9%
Marlon Seets	RB	5'9, 215	Jr.	NR	12	65	1	5.4	2.6	58.3%
Paul Harris	QB				8	28	0	3.5	5.5	62.5%
D.J. Banks	WR				7	46	0	6.6	4.7	57.1%
Scotty Young	QB	6'2, 221	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	7	35	0	5.0	7.0	42.9%
Andrew Guillot	WR				4	29	2	7.3	4.2	75.0%
Jarred Craft	RB	6'0, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. Talent in the backfield

A pass-first predilection hurt Tech in a couple of different ways in 2013. The most obvious was that Tech stunk at passing. Beyond that, though, is that the running game wasn't that bad. Tech's top three backs all averaged at least 6.3 highlight yards per opportunity, and both Kenneth Dixon and Tevin King were solid in creating such opportunities. In 20 carries per game, Dixon and King averaged 6.0 yards per carry; that's better than Tech's passing averages, and without the interception risk.

King is out this spring with a dislocated ankle -- actually, injuries have been such an issue this spring that the Bulldogs haven't been able to scrimmage yet, but hey, better now than in the fall -- but if he's healthy, he will be part of a pretty exciting backfield.

Of course, the runners will still need blocks.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Richie Casey	WR				60	29	313	48.3%	14.2%	58.9%	5.2	-97	4.6	26.9
Sterling Griffin	WR	6'0, 194	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	58	33	357	56.9%	13.7%	69.4%	6.2	-69	5.5	30.7
D.J. Banks	WR				57	36	262	63.2%	13.4%	54.0%	4.6	-178	4.8	22.5
Trent Taylor	WR	5'8, 181	So.	3 stars (5.5)	43	28	260	65.1%	10.1%	44.7%	6.0	-77	5.3	22.4
Jon Greenwalt	WR				40	26	227	65.0%	9.4%	55.6%	5.7	-86	5.8	19.5
Andrew Guillot	WR				34	26	320	76.5%	8.0%	33.3%	9.4	30	9.2	27.5
Hunter Lee	WR	5'9, 195	Sr.	NR	31	16	228	51.6%	7.3%	50.0%	7.4	10	7.8	19.6
Jaydrick DeClouette	WR				22	12	130	54.5%	5.2%	61.9%	5.9	-29	4.9	11.2
Kenneth Dixon	RB	5'10, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	20	14	85	70.0%	4.7%	57.9%	4.3	-78	4.4	7.3
Blake Martin	RB	5'10, 197	Jr.	NR	17	14	74	82.4%	4.0%	47.1%	4.4	-77	4.3	6.4
Eddie Johnson	WR	6'3, 236	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	4	65	28.6%	3.3%	36.4%	4.6	-14	3.4	5.6
Tevin King	RB	5'6, 158	So.	2 stars (5.2)	13	8	56	61.5%	3.1%	38.5%	4.3	-43	4.3	4.8
Jacarri Jackson	WR				9	4	63	44.4%	2.1%	100.0%	7.0	4	5.0	5.4
Kevin Gary	WR	6'1, 178	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Paul Turner (LSU)	WR	5'11, 194	So.	3 stars (5.7)
Carlos Henderson	WR	5'11, 188	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Sanford Seay	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Brodrick Jefferson	WR	5'8, 161	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kameron McKnight	WR	6'2, 217	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.5	2.67	4	44.0%	64.5%	23.2%	85.4	3.6%	9.7%
Rank	95	100	14	17	87	116	84	37	102

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Matthew Shepperd	RG				23
Vince Cano	C				12
Jeremy Graffree	LT				9
Tre Carter	LG	6'1, 306	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	9
Mitchell Bell	RT	6'3, 348	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	8
Larry Banks	LG				8
Jens Danielsen	RT	6'4, 286	Sr.	NR	7
Darrell Brown	LT	6'4, 288	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Alec Davis	C				0
Richard Greenwalt	RG	6'4, 298	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Cam Manning	OL	6'2, 268	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Chris Aye	OL	6'4, 293	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Kirby Wison	OL	6'4, 320	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Blake Sharp	OL	6'4, 290	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Michael Rodriguez	OL	6'6, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Shane Carpenter	OL	6'6, 290	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. Another rebuilt line

Rebuilding once is difficult enough, but line coach Matt Moore now has to do it all over again.

For the second straight year, the Tech line is getting revamped. The Bulldogs returned only 16 career starts heading into 2013, and they return only 24 this year. Call it a double-dip recession -- not only do you have to replace starters, but the odds are good that you're replacing them with guys who haven't even been on the second string for very long. With almost no proven depth, the line is a huge question mark, and it would be quite beneficial for Tech if JUCO transfers Kirby Wilson and Blake Sharp were both ready to shine immediately.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.08	33	IsoPPP+	92.8	102
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.0%	49	Succ. Rt. +	82.1	118
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.5	81	Off. FP+	94.6	111
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	30	Redzone S&P+	80.6	118
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.6		ACTUAL	26.0	+4.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	70	117	118	125
RUSHING	92	103	112	111
PASSING	31	121	120	124
Standard Downs		110	107	104
Passing Downs		122	124	83

Q1 Rk	120	1st Down Rk	102
Q2 Rk	101	2nd Down Rk	120
Q3 Rk	122	3rd Down Rk	126
Q4 Rk	123

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90.3	2.89	3.24	38.9%	79.2%	18.3%	81.7	7.5%	4.8%
Rank	106	55	59	60	114	77	99	8	107

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
IK Enemkpali	DE				12	34.0	4.6%	11.0	5.5	2	1	0	0
Justin Ellis	DT				12	31.5	4.2%	5.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Vernon Butler	DT	6'3, 321	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	29.5	4.0%	4.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Shakeil Lucas	DT				12	25.5	3.4%	3.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Kendrick James	DE				12	24.0	3.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Vontarrius Dora	DE	6'4, 243	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	22.0	3.0%	6.5	2.5	0	1	0	0
Malcolm Pichon	DT	6'3, 343	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	18.0	2.4%	2.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
DeAngelo Brooks	DT	6'0, 303	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	8	18.0	2.4%	4.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Kevin Kisseberth	DE	6'2, 249	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	12.5	1.7%	1.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Andre Taylor	DL	6'4, 257	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	10	7.5	1.0%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Devon McKinney	DT	6'0, 277	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	2	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Hakim Gray	DE	6'3, 269	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Cedric Johnson	DT	6'2, 302	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jaylon Ferguson	DE	6'5, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Deldrick Canty	DE	6'2, 250	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. A rebuilt line and coaching staff

With three defensive assistants leaving for other jobs, Holtz had the opportunity to bring some new energy into the staff, and he did just that. Oscar Giles is the new line coach, Blake Baker is the new safeties coach, and most notably, former Texas and Mississippi State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz is the new coordinator and linebackers coach.

Diaz's reputation has been pulled in a couple of different directions in recent years. Not even two full years ago, he was regarded as one of the top young defensive minds in football. His final defense as coordinator at MTSU ranked 33rd in Def. F/+, and in the four years since he left, the Blue Raiders' average ranking has been 95.3. He coached for one year at Mississippi State and improved the Bulldogs' defense from 50th to 20th, and it dropped to 30th, then 54th, after he left. And in his first year at Texas, he improved the Longhorns' defense from 31st to sixth.

Of course, Texas dropped from sixth to 40th in 2012, and after one poor performance in 2013, Diaz was scapegoated and fired by Mack Brown.

The Diaz rehabilitation project begins in Ruston. He inherits personnel that is suitably aggressive -- three returning linemen had at least four tackles for loss, three linebackers had at least two, and four defensive backs defensed at least five passes -- but lacked in consistency in 2013 and lacks in depth in 2014. Star pass rusher IK Enemkpali and linebacker (and TFLs leader) Daniel Cobb. Throw in the loss of two of the top three tackles, and you've got some potential depth issues here.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Daniel Cobb	MLB				12	59.5	8.0%	13.0	2.5	1	2	2	1
Mitch Villemez	SLB	6'2, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	52.5	7.0%	3.0	2.0	0	2	3	0
Beau Fitte	SLB	6'0, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	33.0	4.4%	3.5	1.0	2	0	0	0
Terrell Pinson	SLB	6'2, 209	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	23.0	3.1%	2	1	0	6	0	0
Tony Johnson	MLB	6'2, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	16.5	2.2%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Mike Schrang	LB	6'1, 239	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	7.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Andre Wiggins	MLB	6'2, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	6	6.5	0.9%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nick Thomason	LB	6'0, 246	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Solomon Hunter	LB	6'2, 210	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Quanta Moore	LB	6'1, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Thomas McDonald	S	6'4, 180	Sr.	NR	12	57.0	7.7%	0.5	0	3	5	1	0
Xavier Woods	S	5'11, 194	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	46.5	6.2%	3	0	0	2	0	0
Kentrell Brice	S	5'11, 187	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	44.5	6.0%	1.5	0	0	0	0	1
Adairius Barnes	CB	5'11, 183	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	40.0	5.4%	1	1	4	7	1	0
Le'Vander Liggins	CB	5'10, 193	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	37.0	5.0%	1	0	1	10	1	0
Lloyd Grogan	S	6'0, 207	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	27.5	3.7%	2	1	0	0	0	0
Bryson Abraham	CB	5'9, 177	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	19.5	2.6%	0	0	3	2	0	0
Josh Ross	CB				11	18.5	2.5%	2.5	0	0	0	0	0
Kendall Hayes	DB				12	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jabari Prewitt	DB	5'9, 185	Sr.	NR	11	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
C.J. Cleveland	DB				7	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Colby Brown	CB	5'9, 169	Sr.	NR	10	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ahmad Wallace	CB				6	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Jacob	DB	5'11, 166	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. An active, glitchy backfield

At least the sketchy Tech offense had the good sense not to move very quickly. The Bulldogs operated at a pretty slow pace, which helped to keep the defense off the field a bit. At the same time, however, the offense offered minimal threat, and opponents were happy to go with a run-heavy approach despite a shaky Tech pass defense. That led to quite a dichotomy between Tech's passing yards allowed (31st in the country!) and actual quality (121st in Passing S&P+).

The secondary should improve in 2014, however. First, Diaz's oft-exotic blitzing could help with a pass rush that was almost non-existant in blitzing situations. A pass rush is a secondary's best friend, and despite Enemkpali, Tech's pass rush just wasn't good enough in 2013. Beyond that, the top three corners and top four safeties all return. Adairius Barnes, Le'Vander Liggins, and Bryson Abraham combined to defense 27 passes last fall, and Thomas McDonald is a big play-maker at safety. As you can tell from the numbers above, big plays were certainly an issue here, but the defense at least made some big plays of its own.

There is reason to believe both that the run defense will regress and the pass defense will surge this fall.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Logan McPherson	5'10, 174	So.	63	38.0	0	17	21	60.3%
Gerald Shouse	6'1, 165	Jr.	5	40.4	0	3	2	100.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Kyle Fischer	5'11, 201	Jr.	41	60.1	11	3	26.8%
Logan McPherson	5'10, 174	So.	12	57.3	0	1	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kyle Fischer	5'11, 201	Jr.	22-23	14-17	82.4%	4-6	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Lyle Fitte	KR			20	20.7	0
Tevin King	KR	5'6, 158	So.	5	28.8	0
D.J. Banks	PR			9	0.3	0
Andrew Guillot	PR			8	5.9	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	74
Field Goal Efficiency	60
Punt Return Efficiency	85
Kick Return Efficiency	63
Punt Efficiency	75
Kickoff Efficiency	56
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	86

8. Solid legs

Poor offense and defense ruined what could have been a field position advantage generated by special teams. Logan McPherson wasn't much of a distance punter as a freshman, but he generated a lot of fair catches and downed a lot of balls inside the 20. Kick and punt coverage were decent and should be again this fall, and some new blood in the return game might not be a bad thing. This should at least be a decent special teams unit, one that won't hurt Tech and could help out in close games if the offense and defense show any sort of improvement.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Oklahoma	9
6-Sep	at UL-Lafayette	79
13-Sep	at North Texas	94
20-Sep	Northwestern State	NR
27-Sep	at Auburn	12
4-Oct	UTEP	117
18-Oct	UTSA	75
25-Oct	at Southern Miss	110
1-Nov	Western Kentucky	91
8-Nov	at UAB	115
22-Nov	at Old Dominion	NR
29-Nov	Rice	88

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-6.5% (79)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	80
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / -4.5
TO Luck/Game	+0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)

9. Survive September

The two biggest weaknesses on this team -- pass offense and pass defense -- should both improve, perhaps by quite a bit, in 2014. If the line isn't awful, the running game could be a strength as well. Louisiana Tech fell from 52nd in the F/+ rankings to 112th in a single season, and while a similar bounce back isn't going to happen, I would expect this team to improve at least to the No. 95-105 range this fall.

That's the good news. The bad news comes with that September schedule. Even a dramatically improved Tech team is likely to start 1-4.

If the Bulldogs can survive a gauntlet of trips to Oklahoma, Louisiana-Lafayette (the Sun Belt favorite), North Texas (a potential C-USA West favorite), and Auburn with some semblance of confidence intact, the last seven games on the schedule could produce five wins and bowl eligibility. But that's a pretty significant "if."

Really, the goal for 2014 should probably just be improvement and about five wins. That would likely put a lot of pressure on Holtz to succeed in 2015, but he'll have an experienced enough team at that point to meet the demand of more wins.

10. Conference USA balance of power

At the end of each conference run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference's balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. They're just how I would rank the teams after writing 4,000 or so words about each of them.

Tier 1
1. Marshall

I've set the bar really, really high for Rakeem Cato and the Herd this year.

Tier 2
2. UTSA
3. Rice
4. Florida Atlantic
5. North Texas
6. Middle Tennessee
7. Western Kentucky

Four teams doing a little bit of rebuilding and two teams (UTSA, FAU) with a lot of continuity and promise. I might be expecting a bit too much out of UTSA this fall, but frankly, they've dramatically exceeded expectations for two straight years. It's been impossible to expect too much out of the Roadrunners so far.

Tier 3
8. Old Dominion
9. Louisiana Tech
10. UAB
11. Southern Miss
12. UTEP

These teams could really go in any order. I think they're easily a step behind the top seven teams, but good luck figuring out who's better than one another.

Tier 4
13. Florida International

To put it politely, FIU has a lot of work to do.