The big 2014 Boise State football preview: A fresh start and the right guy

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1. A new start

They've still gone 19-7 since Kellen Moore left. It bears mentioning. Some of the shine has worn off of the Boise State football program in the last couple of seasons, but in terms of mid-major status, the Broncos are still as well-established as anybody.

That said, of course, if there were a time for a fresh start, this might be it. Boise State went 8-5 in 2013, its first time with more than four losses since 1998. Chris Petersen's squad dealt with some injuries, sure, and was breaking in one hell of a 2013 recruiting class, so it's not like there were nothing but 8-5 seasons in the future, but after losing just two games (and by a total of six points) in 2012, the Broncos were straight-up thumped in three of five 2013 losses (by 32 at Washington, by 17 at BYU, by 15 against Oregon State in the Hawaii Bowl). If Petersen had stayed, the odds of a rebound in 2014 were pretty solid.

Petersen didn't stay, however. Washington snatched him up after losing Steve Sarkisian to USC. Boise State replaced him with a guy with quite a Boise background and all sorts of youth; Bryan Harsin was a BSU grad assistant in 2001, coached Bronco tight ends for four years, and moved up to offensive coordinator when Petersen took over as head coach. He spent a decade in Boise, moved to Austin for two years (Texas offensive co-coordinator, 2011-12), and spent one year at a school attempting to emulate the Boise blueprint (Arkansas State head coach, 2013).

Boise State's run to start the Petersen era -- 84-8 from 2006-12, top-10 F/+ rankings in 2006 and 2008-11, No. 1 F/+ ranking in 2010 -- may have been too unique and too improbable to duplicate. But Harsin appears the perfect person to try.

2. A touch of Stanford

The Harsin hire is a clear, sensible nod to Boise State's recent history. He has Boise ties, and he witnessed and/or took part in the steps that made Boise State elite. But the way he put his staff together reminds me not of Petersen or Dan Hawkins at BSU, but of another young, hungry coach.

When Jim Harbaugh took over at Stanford in 2007, he had a culture to change. He built everything around a single word -- competition -- and crafted his staff with that in mind. Sometimes a younger, newer coach will lean on old hands and make sure he has plenty of experienced assistants around him at all times. Harbaugh, however, went with youth and hunger. He filled his staff with smart guys with chips on their shoulders, and in turn, they went about building a roster of smart players with chips on their shoulders.

I see the same thing in Harsin's staff, at least up top. New defensive coordinator Marcel Yates played in the Boise State secondary from 1996-99 and spent the last two years as co-coordinator of Texas A&M's defense. Offensive line coach Scott Huff was a Boise State lineman from 1998-01. Linebackers coach Andy Avalos was a Boise State linebacker from 2001-04. Secondary coach Julius Brown was a Boise State defensive back from 2000-03. Receivers coach Junior Adams played for Oregon State and Montana State from 2000-03. Tight ends coach Eliah Drinkwitz was a graduate assistant and magna cum laude student at Arkansas Tech from 2001-04. And of course, offensive coordinator Mike Sanford is a 2005 Boise State grad who spent the last three seasons under David Shaw at Stanford.

Now, experience can be a good thing sometimes. There's a reason coaches lean on it. Harsin did bring aboard 30-year veteran Steve Caldwell (former defensive co-coordinator at both Pacific and Nevada) to coach the defensive line and 20-year veteran Kent Riddle to coach running backs and special teams.

But this staff skews young and has all sorts of ties to both Boise State and the Pacific Northwest. Color me impressed.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 45
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Washington	18	6-38	L	24.7 - 35.7	L
7-Sep	UT-Martin	N/A	63-14	W	24.9 - 25.1	L
13-Sep	Air Force	113	42-20	W	34.9 - 23.3	W
20-Sep	at Fresno State	49	40-41	L	32.6 - 24.7	W
28-Sep	Southern Miss	120	60-7	W	37.5 - 25.2	W	4.1
12-Oct	at Utah State	32	34-23	W	40.4 - 24.9	W	9.4
19-Oct	Nevada	88	34-17	W	35.8 - 30.0	W	10.6
25-Oct	at BYU	30	20-37	L	34.3 - 32.2	W	8.7
2-Nov	at Colorado State	66	42-30	W	40.0 - 27.1	W	9.7
16-Nov	Wyoming	102	48-7	W	27.2 - 13.9	W	10.0
23-Nov	at San Diego State	89	31-34	L	20.2 - 17.1	W	7.5
30-Nov	New Mexico	110	45-17	W	22.3 - 19.0	W	7.0
24-Dec	vs. Oregon State	42	23-38	L	31.7 - 32.5	L	6.4

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+3.9%	47	-1.5%	72	+4.7%	3
Points Per Game	37.5	19	24.8	51
Adj. Points Per Game	31.3	44	25.4	41

3. The game changed

After a dud of a season opener against Washington, the Boise State offense established a pretty high level of play for much of the season. But after a while, the injuries began to pile up. Quarterback Joe Southwick was hurt early in Game 7. Running back Aaron Baltazar began to click in Game 4 and was lost for the season in Game 5 (and then transferred). Receivers Shane Williams-Rhodes and Aaron Burks each missed two games. Kirby Moore missed six.

After a while, it appears the attrition took its toll.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 9 games): Boise State 33.9, Opponent 27.6 (plus-6.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Boise State 25.4, Opponent 20.6 (plus-4.8)

After averaging a robust 6.5 yards per play in Games 3 through 9, the Broncos averaged just 5.7 against Wyoming's awful defense and 4.2 against SDSU. They did average 6.7 against New Mexico, but that wasn't particularly impressive given the caliber of the Lobo defense. Just as the BSU defense began to pick things up a notch or two, allowing a solid 4.3 yards per play in the final three regular season games, the offense struggled, leading to a tight loss to SDSU and a huge first-half deficit against Oregon State.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	57	IsoPPP+	99.6	64
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.4%	28	Succ. Rt. +	105.8	44
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.0	28	Def. FP+	100.4	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	49	Redzone S&P+	107.3	34
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.3		ACTUAL	24	+2.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	20	48	45	49
RUSHING	32	46	58	47
PASSING	27	53	28	46
Standard Downs		43	48	44
Passing Downs		54	37	109

Q1 Rk	63	1st Down Rk	72
Q2 Rk	53	2nd Down Rk	48
Q3 Rk	54	3rd Down Rk	45
Q4 Rk	74

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Grant Hedrick	6'0, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	167	242	1825	16	5	69.0%	15	5.8%	6.8
Joe Southwick				151	208	1654	12	5	72.6%	11	5.0%	7.3
Nick Patti				8	11	63	0	0	72.7%	0	0.0%	5.7
Ryan Finley	6'3, 186	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Thomas Stuart	5'11, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jay Ajayi	RB	6'0, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	249	1425	18	5.7	5.6	40.2%
Grant Hedrick	QB	6'0, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	53	351	6	6.6	6.7	47.2%
Aaron Baltazar	RB				50	234	2	4.7	3.9	36.0%
Jack Fields	RB	5'9, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	46	139	1	3.0	2.1	26.1%
Derrick Thomas	RB	6'0, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	32	95	0	3.0	4.8	12.5%
Joe Southwick	QB				31	173	3	5.6	4.0	54.8%
Devan Demas	RB	5'8, 172	So.	3 stars (5.5)	21	125	1	6.0	5.7	42.9%
Charles Bertoli	RB	5'11, 200	So.	NR	18	115	1	6.4	4.0	55.6%
Shane Williams-Rhodes	WR	5'6, 157	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	73	1	7.3	5.3	60.0%
Nick Patti	QB	5'10, 196	So.	3 stars (5.7)	4	19	0	4.8	9.8	50.0%
Cory Young	RB	5'10, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jeremy McNichols	RB	5'10, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

4. Running downhill

Boise State will forever be tied to football underdog tactics, and underdog tactics are often falsely tied to the pass. But the Bronco offense under Petersen was at its best when the Broncos could lean on a solid running game. Perhaps their two most successful teams -- 2006 (in which they went 13-0) and 2010 (in which they lost a game but ranked first in overall F/+) were the two best at running the ball: Boise State ranked ninth in Rushing S&P+ in 2006 and 20th in 2010.

After falling to 48th in 2011 and 51st in 2012, Petersen seemed to put extra emphasis on running in 2013. It began to work midway through the season -- Baltazar rushed 18 times for 92 yards against Fresno State (gaining particular success from a slow-developing power play up the middle in which he seemed to line up about 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage; yes, that's an exaggeration), and Jay Ajayi rushed 107 times for 726 yards (6.8 per carry) and eight touchdowns in the six games between Southern Miss and Wyoming. But backups not named Baltazar struggled to do much of anything, and Ajayi's random fumble problems (he had four of them in 2013) tripped the Broncos up in losses to Fresno State and BYU.

Harsin's Arkansas State team ran the ball heavily in 2013, and Boise State will almost definitely attempt to establish the run in 2014. Ajayi should have all the opportunity in the world to prove that he's over whatever fumbleitis he was suffering from in the first half of the season; he could also get enough opportunity to cross the 1,500-yard rushing mark if he stays healthy.

Combine Ajayi with a nice one-two punch at receiver -- Matt Miller is a solid downfield threat for his size, and Shane Williams-Rhodes is a tiny J.D. McKissic (McKissic was used in basically an extended-handoffs role for ASU in 2013, catching 80 percent of his passes at 8.1 yards per catch) -- and you've got quality atop the Boise State depth chart. You've also got a batch of unknowns after that.

Running backs Jack Fields and Derrick Thomas did very little with their opportunities last year (Devan Demas showed some potential late in the season), junior receiver Troy Ware caught just nine passes last year but is the third-leading wideout, and most of the more highly touted recruits at the skill positions are really young. There are plenty of candidates for breakthroughs and no guarantees.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Matt Miller	WR-X	6'3, 222	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	112	88	1138	78.6%	25.5%	59.6%	10.2	170	9.0	138.5
Shane Williams-Rhodes	WR-H	5'6, 157	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	87	77	702	88.5%	19.8%	65.8%	8.1	-102	7.3	85.4
Geraldo Boldewijn	WR-Z				61	39	528	63.9%	13.9%	50.0%	8.7	54	9.9	64.2
Kirby Moore	WR-H				42	36	280	85.7%	9.6%	54.1%	6.7	-101	6.2	34.1
Aaron Burks	WR-Z				37	18	309	48.6%	8.4%	48.0%	8.4	55	8.7	37.6
Jay Ajayi	RB	6'0, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	26	22	222	84.6%	5.9%	47.1%	8.5	-12	10.2	27.0
Holden Huff	TE	6'5, 236	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	6	32	54.5%	2.5%	50.0%	2.9	-47	3.2	3.9
Troy Ware	WR-Z	6'2, 188	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	9	104	81.8%	2.5%	60.0%	9.5	7	9.0	12.7
Connor Peters	TE	6'4, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	9	7	58	77.8%	2.1%	66.7%	6.4	-19	6.0	7.1
Dallas Burroughs	WR-X	5'8, 171	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	2	11	28.6%	1.6%	N/A	1.6	-29	0.0	1.3
Gabe Linehan	TE				7	2	38	28.6%	1.6%	100.0%	5.4	-2	5.3	4.6
Jake Hardee	TE	6'3, 241	Jr.	NR	7	5	73	71.4%	1.6%	50.0%	10.4	15	11.5	8.9
Thomas Sperbeck	WR-H	6'0, 174	So.	2 stars (5.4)	5	5	40	100.0%	1.1%	100.0%	8.0	-10	3.9	4.9
Alec Dhaenens	TE	6'3, 243	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jake Roh	TE	6'2, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tanner Shipley	WR	6'0, 182	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
D.J. Dean	WR	6'0, 187	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Chase Blakley	TE	6'4, 235	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
A.J. Richardson	WR	6'0, 196	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Sean Modster	WR	6'0, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. A parting gift

In terms of rankings, Boise State's 2013 recruiting class fell into the same range as most Petersen classes -- between 50th and 70th -- but whereas the overall play-making ability at the skill positions suffered in recent years, the 2013 class was loaded with potential in this regard.

Granted, Aaron Baltazar was the most touted skill position player of the bunch, and he is indeed gone. But tight end Jake Roh might start this year, and the class features three other three-star skill position players -- A.J. Richardson, Alec Dhaenens, and Tanner Shipley. Throw in 2012 grayshirt D.J. Dean and 2012 recruits like Williams-Rhodes, Demas, and Fields, and you've got a healthy number of high-upside youngsters. Harsin only added to that by bringing in four-star tight end Chase Blakley, three-star receivers Jeremy McNichols and Sean Modster (a Petersen commit), and three-star running back Cory Young.

Potential isn't production, but it does appear the skill-position roster has quite a bit more upside than it had over the last couple of years. So perhaps the biggest question mark for the offense this year comes up front, where three multi-year starters (including all-conference performers Charles Leno, Jr., and Matt Paradis) are gone. The line also has upside and is young enough to be quite strong in 2015 and 2016, but 2014 might be an issue.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.6	3.08	3.67	39.5%	74.1%	19.0%	102.4	4.6%	6.6%
Rank	47	48	28	64	33	64	66	62	60

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Charles Leno, Jr.	LT				39	1st All-MWC
Matt Paradis	C				27	2nd All-MWC
Spencer Gerke	LG				21
Marcus Henry	C	6'3, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13
Rees Odhiambo	LT	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	8
Travis Averill	RG	6'3, 304	So.	3 stars (5.7)	3
Steven Baggett	LT	6'3, 288	So.	2 stars (5.4)	2
Chris Tozer	LG				0
Mario Yakoo	LG	6'4, 330	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Archie Lewis	RT	6'3, 275	RSFr.	NR
Andrew Tercek	OL	6'1, 276	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Eli McCullough	OL	6'5, 297	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jerhen Ertel	OL	6'5, 258	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Troy Bacon	OL	6'3, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Tennessee Su'esu'e	OL	6'2, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.04	12	IsoPPP+	112.3	15
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.4%	61	Succ. Rt. +	98.2	61
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.4	40	Off. FP+	102.5	32
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	32	Redzone S&P+	119.0	15
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.3		ACTUAL	27.0	+3.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	76	44	61	43
RUSHING	65	21	34	31
PASSING	89	90	106	63
Standard Downs		37	54	18
Passing Downs		65	82	17

Q1 Rk	57	1st Down Rk	45
Q2 Rk	90	2nd Down Rk	52
Q3 Rk	9	3rd Down Rk	52
Q4 Rk	58

6. Not bad, but no longer elite

The most underrated aspect of Boise State's elite teams was the defense. Players like Kellen Moore and Ian Johnson got the headlines, but Boise State ranked in the Def. F/+ top 20 every year between 2008 and 2012. The Broncos even ranked first in 2010.

The shine came off in 2013. Boise State still had a decent mid-major D, but you have to add the "mid-major" distinction. Good offenses tore the Broncos apart: Washington averaged 7.0 yards per play, Fresno State averaged 6.2, and Oregon State averaged 6.8. Even BYU (6.2) and Colorado State (5.7) had some success.

Most of the problems came in pass defense. Boise State basically had a one-man pass rush (Demarcus Lawrence had 10.5 sacks, but BSU still ranked just 72nd in Adj. Sack Rate), and in order to prevent big plays, the Broncos couldn't get as aggressive as normal on the outside, allowing all sorts of shorter completions.

It's a strength-gets-weaker, weakness-gets-stronger situation for new defensive coordinator Marcel Yates in 2014. The back seven returns virtually everybody -- the top five linebackers, and the top 10 defensive backs -- but three of four starters from a line that was quite good against the run are gone. Harsin signed three JUCO linemen (two tackles), and if the line holds up, this should still be a solid mid-major defense. But that's not a guarantee.

(One note from the neither-here-nor-there department: Almost all of the returning linemen are listed five to 10 pounds lighter than last season, while a majority of the linebackers are listed five to 10 pounds heavier. Take that as you will.)

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.6	2.68	3.48	39.1%	56.7%	21.2%	93.3	3.8%	6.8%
Rank	37	31	83	63	11	37	72	81	63

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Demarcus Lawrence	DE				12	55.5	6.7%	20.5	10.5	0	1	3	0
Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe	NT				12	36.5	4.4%	4.0	1.0	0	4	1	0
Armand Nance	DT	6'0, 311	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	34.0	4.1%	4.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Tyler Horn	DT	6'5, 276	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	29.5	3.6%	5.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Kharyee Marshall	DE				13	27.0	3.3%	7.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Gabe Perez	DE	6'4, 235	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	25.0	3.0%	7.0	2.5	0	0	2	0
Justin Taimatuia	NT	6'0, 294	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	19.0	2.3%	2.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Beau Martin	DE	6'2, 254	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	13	17.5	2.1%	6.5	3.5	0	2	0	0
Kamalei Correa	DE	6'3, 247	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13	9.0	1.1%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Ash	DT	6'3, 282	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	6	6.5	0.8%	1.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Sam McCaskill	DE	6'3, 249	So.	2 stars (5.3)	11	5.5	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Elliot Hoyte	DL	6'4, 276	So.	2 stars (5.2)	4	3.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nick Terry	DT	6'3, 276	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Tutulupeatau Mataele	DT	6'3, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Rondell McNair	DE	6'4, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Antoine Turner	DT	6'3, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Jabril Frazier	DE	6'4, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Kaleb Hill	DE	6'1, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ben Weaver	WLB	6'0, 240	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	70.0	8.4%	4.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Tanner Vallejo	MLB	6'1, 227	So.	3 stars (5.6)	11	39.5	4.8%	5.5	0.5	0	3	0	0
Tyler Gray	WLB	6'4, 224	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	30.0	3.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Blake Renaud	MLB	6'2, 247	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	10	18.5	2.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darren Lee	MLB	6'1, 226	So.	2 stars (5.2)	13	13.0	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jonathan Brown	SLB				6	9.0	1.1%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Christopher Santini	SLB	6'0, 215	So.	3 stars (5.7)	11	8.5	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Dustin Kamper	LB				11	7.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Travis Saxton	LB	6'1, 233	Sr.	NR	2	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Pint	LB	6'1, 232	So.	2 stars (5.2)	3	2.0	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mat Boesen	LB	6'4, 227	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Corey Bell	NB	5'11, 208	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	62.0	7.5%	4.5	1	0	2	0	1
Jeremy Ioane	S	5'10, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	49.5	6.0%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Darian Thompson	S	6'2, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	48.5	5.8%	1.5	0	4	1	1	0
Donte Deayon	CB	5'9, 151	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	47.0	5.7%	3	0	6	9	0	0
Dillon Lukehart	S	6'1, 207	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	37.0	4.5%	2	0	0	0	1	0
Mercy Maston	CB	5'11, 196	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	36.0	4.3%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Bryan Douglas	CB	5'9, 178	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	29.0	3.5%	0	0	4	9	0	0
Jonathan Moxey	CB	5'10, 179	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	11.5	1.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Taylor Loffler	S	6'3, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	10.0	1.2%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Cleshawn Page	CB	5'9, 174	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	6.0	0.7%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Ebo Makinde	S				5	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chaz Anderson	CB	5'10, 176	So.	3 stars (5.7)	9	4.0	0.5%	1	1	0	0	0	0
Dionza Blue	CB	5'11, 191	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Dylan Sumner-Gardner	S	6'1, 195	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)

7. All the experience you could possibly want in the back seven

The back seven didn't make quite enough plays in 2013, particularly against good offenses. But one can see how inexperience might have been an issue. Counting Corey Bell as more of a nickel back than strongside linebacker, three of the top five linebackers were freshmen, as were four of the top seven; plus, only two linebackers played in all 13 games. Inexperience plus shuffling tends to equal some level of disarray. And there were three sophomores among the top five in the secondary.

The good thing about inexperience, however, is that it becomes experience. Last year's shuffling means that this year's linebacking corps returns five players who have logged decent minutes. And while the secondary had its issues, it now returns four safeties who combined for eight tackles for loss in 2013 and three corners who combined for 10 picks and 19 passes defensed. Plus, four-star freshman Dylan Sumner-Gardner was already able to make a bit of an impact in spring ball.

Aside from defensive end, this defense is loaded with experience, and last year's weaknesses shouldn't be quite as weak.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Trevor Harman			26	42.6	0	15	9	92.3%
Sean Wale	6'2, 188	So.	21	41.5	0	3	8	52.4%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Dan Goodale	5'10, 196	Sr.	90	61.0	37	1	41.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Dan Goodale	5'10, 196	Sr.	57-60	15-16	93.8%	2-3	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Bryan Douglas	KR	5'9, 178	Sr.	13	30.4	1
Dallas Burroughs	KR	5'8, 171	Sr.	10	23.4	0
Shane Williams-Rhodes	PR	5'6, 157	Jr.	16	14.6	0
Donte Deayon	PR	5'9, 151	Jr.	5	21.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	3
Field Goal Efficiency	23
Punt Return Efficiency	9
Kick Return Efficiency	47
Punt Efficiency	22
Kickoff Efficiency	5
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	34

8. Even-numbered jinx

Boise State had an on-and-off relationship with special teams in recent years.

We know all about the key kicks the Broncos missed in the 2010-12 window, but beyond that, they ranked first in Special Teams F/+ in 2011, third in 2013, and 10th in 2009 ... and 52nd in 2012 and 56th in 2010. Even-numbered years apparently aren't kind to this unit, but Boise certainly returns a hell of a returns unit and a confusing but solid kicker in Dan Goodale (Why confusing? Because he made 15 of 16 field goals under 40 yards but still managed to miss three PATs.)

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	vs. Ole Miss	26
6-Sep	Colorado State	85
13-Sep	at Connecticut	86
20-Sep	UL-Lafayette	79
27-Sep	at Air Force	105
4-Oct	at Nevada	62
17-Oct	Fresno State	46
24-Oct	BYU	32
8-Nov	at New Mexico	116
15-Nov	San Diego State	83
22-Nov	at Wyoming	100
29-Nov	Utah State	69

Five-Year F/+ Rk	25.2% (8)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	65
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	3 / 2.0
TO Luck/Game	+0.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (7, 9)

9. Still Boise, no longer Boise

It's safe to say that the era of Elite Boise State is over. We may see another one begin at some point in the future, but after four straight top-10 campaigns from 2008-11, the Broncos fell pretty far in 2012, then fell quite a bit further in 2013.

So no, Boise State probably won't threaten to crack the top 10 this year. But the Broncos still have loads of experience and a wealth of young play-makers, and considering the losses at Fresno State (on offense) and Utah State (on defense), they probably have more known, proven entities than any school in the conference. Harsin has proven himself in each step of his career, and I really do love the premium he seemed to put on both young energy and local ties when putting his staff together.

Boise State should be able to run the ball, and the Broncos should once again have too much on defense for most Mountain West opponents. They probably won't have enough to beat Ole Miss in Atlanta to start the season, but with Fresno State and Utah State coming to play on the blue field, they are pretty clearly the conference favorite to me in 2014.

It was as good a time as any for Petersen to step aside, and with Harsin, Boise State remains the program to beat in the Mountain West ... even if the team is a little easier to beat than it used to be.

10. Mountain West balance of power

At the end of each conference run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference's balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. They're just how I would rank the teams after writing 4,000 or so words about each of them.

Tier 1
1. Boise State
2. Fresno State
3. Utah State
4. San Diego State

These teams are all experienced and potentially fun. I think the new energy will serve Boise State well, but any of the top three teams here could run away with the conference without surprising me much.

Tier 2
5. Colorado State
6. UNLV
7. San Jose State

I've talked myself into and out of UNLV about six times since I finished the Rebels' preview. Their postseason ban became official, and we could see that serve as either a galvanizing or destructive force, but I love the experience there. But if one team is going to break through to the first tier, it will be CSU.

Tier 3
8. Hawaii
9. Nevada
10. New Mexico
11. Wyoming
12. Air Force

Wyoming is the biggest wildcard. I love the Craig Bohl hire, and I see them moving up soon ... but I struggle to see it happening immediately.