The big 2014 Memphis football preview: Digging your way out of destitution

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Digging your way out

At first, growth can be hard to notice, at least from an outsider's perspective. To said outsiders, Memphis' second season under Justin Fuente was a lot like the first. The Tigers beat some bad teams and conquered the mighty UT-Martin team that felled them in 2012, but they finished 3-9, one game behind where they were the year before.

Now, 3-9 isn't awful for a team that went 5-31 from 2009-11, but it's still probably not seen as significant growth. Considering the hole from which Fuente had to dig, however, Memphis' growth has been impressive. The defense was downright good for most of the season, and after losing to opponents with winning records by an average of 35-18 in 2012, that average improved to 23-19 in 2013. Memphis lost by only a touchdown to each of the AAC's best teams (UCF, Louisville) and stayed competitive in losses to Duke, Houston, and Cincinnati.

The Tigers fell off of a cliff late in the season, but it was still another season of gains overall. Memphis ranked 119th in the F/+ rankings in 2011, improved to 94th in 2012, and improved again to 83rd last fall. The trend is positive.

But as we've seen at plenty of rebuilding jobs before, wins do need to follow at some point, or negativity can take over. And as Fuente makes his team stronger, the schedule appears to get less and less forgiving. To break through and threaten for bowl eligibility in 2014, Memphis will need to either pull some home upsets or beat teams of a similar caliber on the road.

Are the Tigers ready to take that step?

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 83
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
7-Sep	Duke	41	14-28	L	13.4 - 26.1	L
14-Sep	at Middle Tennessee	85	15-17	L	21.4 - 19.4	W
21-Sep	Arkansas State	90	31-7	W	38.5 - 13.8	W
5-Oct	Central Florida	21	17-24	L	31.5 - 16.0	W
12-Oct	at Houston	46	15-25	L	19.2 - 15.4	W	6.7
19-Oct	SMU	84	29-34	L	19.7 - 29.2	L	7.3
30-Oct	Cincinnati	64	21-34	L	21.7 - 24.8	L	6.3
9-Nov	UT-Martin	N/A	21-6	W	20.9 - 26.1	L	0.3
16-Nov	at South Florida	99	23-10	W	22.8 - 45.3	L	-7.3
23-Nov	at Louisville	12	17-24	L	38.6 - 17.5	W	-3.8
30-Nov	Temple	98	21-41	L	13.8 - 33.2	L	-5.8
7-Dec	at Connecticut	93	10-45	L	15.6 - 49.5	L	-12.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-11.8%	107	+0.1%	61	+2.7%	15
Points Per Game	19.5	112	24.6	44
Adj. Points Per Game	23.1	104	26.3	55

2. Close early, blowouts late

The 2012 season ended with Memphis on an upswing. The Tigers finished that year by thumping three bad teams (Tulane, UAB, Southern Miss) by an average score of 42-19.

And at the beginning of the 2013 season, they rode one of the best mid-major defenses in the country to some decent early results. They were tied with what ended up being a damn good Duke team (though we didn't really know it at the time) with 10 minutes left. They were felled by penalties and a late field goal in a loss to a decent MTSU team. They romped over Arkansas State in one of the strangest early results of the season (total yards: Memphis 505, ASU 255). And they led eventual conference champion UCF by a touchdown with under three minutes to go before a strange, fluky ending.

With 2:05 remaining, UCF's Storm Johnson fumbled into the Memphis end zone, where [the Knights] recovered for a touchdown to tie the game at 17-17. On the ensuing kickoff, Marquis Warford was crushed by UCF's William Stanback (on a borderline helmet-to-helmet hit) and fumbled, and Drico Johnson returned it for a touchdown.

Memphis immediately drove the length of the field ... and threw an interception on a third-and-goal halfback pass. Memphis outgained UCF by 127 yards, but the fumble gods did not smile on them.

When you've forgotten how to win, fate is sometimes pretty cruel in reminding you of that.

Fate continued to hold Memphis back a bit, and the Tigers lost rather competitive games to both Houston and SMU. And while they did win a couple of games against lesser opponents (UT-Martin, USF) in early-November, a tight loss at Louisville eliminated them from bowl consideration with two games left. And then the team fell apart.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Memphis 24.8, Opponent 18.1 (plus-6.7)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Opponent 28.6, Memphis 24.7 (minus-3.9)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 2 games): Opponent 41.4, Memphis 14.7 (minus-26.7)

In the end, Memphis was 0-4 in games decided by one possession in 2013, and the Tigers eventually became their record. But from the 20,000-foot view, the season represented a second straight step forward. And there are enough pieces returning that a third step is quite conceivable.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.05	106	IsoPPP+	98.1	72
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.2%	104	Succ. Rt. +	86.9	107
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.8	88	Def. FP+	96.4	94
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.7	106	Redzone S&P+	96.5	77
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.8		ACTUAL	26	+3.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	117	104	108	110
RUSHING	96	88	108	72
PASSING	107	111	99	112
Standard Downs		97	103	50
Passing Downs		116	110	115

Q1 Rk	106	1st Down Rk	71
Q2 Rk	119	2nd Down Rk	113
Q3 Rk	109	3rd Down Rk	120
Q4 Rk	52

3. Falling behind schedule

Looking at individual players, traits, and performances, you can talk yourself into this Memphis offense to a certain degree.

Running back Brandon Hayes rushed for 259 yards at 6.2 yards per carry in a three-game span against Arkansas State, UCF, and Houston. Quarterback Paxton Lynch, just a freshman in 2013, completed at least 65 percent of his passes in five starts and completed 72 percent against SMU. Five Tiger receivers managed at least one 30-yard catch, and former four-star recruit Keiwone Malone came alive late in the year (last three games: 14 catches, 207 yards). And the offensive line has both experience (five players with starting experience and 60 total starts) and size (average size of those five players: 6'5, 303) on the "pros" side of the pros-and-cons list.

This offense was still pretty bad last year, however. Memphis ranked 88th in Rushing S&P+, 111th in Passing S&P+, 97th on standard downs, and 116th on passing downs. Aside from occasional big plays in the running game, there really were no particular strengths here, and Fuente and offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey were unable to figure out how to prevent Memphis from falling behind schedule. Memphis wants to go up-tempo if possible, but when you're dealing with endless second-and-9s, that's just not an option.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Paxton Lynch	6'6, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)	203	349	2056	9	10	58.2%	25	6.7%	5.0
Jacob Karam				3	7	22	0	0	42.9%	2	22.2%	0.8
Brayden Scott	6'3, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jason Stewart	6'3, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)

4. The Paxton Show

Redshirt freshman Paxton Lynch overtook veteran Jacob Karam for the starting job last year and was basically left to his own devices. Memphis certainly wanted to establish a decent running game, but for much of the season (especially the second half of the season), all the running game really accomplished was eating up downs so Lynch didn't have to throw as much. That's probably good, as he wasn't quite ready to carry an offense.

The offense returns a lot of experience in 2014; Brandon Hayes was granted a sixth year of eligibility, four of the top five returning wideouts are juniors and seniors, etc. But the success of the offense overall will hinge on Lynch, who looked pretty good this spring. There are quite a few interesting pieces in the backfield, from Hayes and the potentially explosive Doroland Dorceus (who had 148 yards on 19 carries in the spring game) to three-star freshmen Robert Davis and Jarvis Cooper. And at the least, he'll have Malone and three possession receivers (Joe Craig, Tevin Jones, Sam Craft) returning, and they'll all have a year of rapport built.

But the talent isn't such that it can carry the load without strong (not competent, but strong) quarterback play. It's up to Lynch to prove he can provide that, and it might be another year before he really can.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Brandon Hayes	RB	5'8, 198	Sr.	NR	201	860	5	4.3	3.7	35.8%
Paxton Lynch	QB	6'6, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)	63	311	2	4.9	3.8	42.9%
Marquis Warford	RB				51	303	1	5.9	10.4	37.3%
Doroland Dorceus	RB	5'10, 195	So.	2 stars (5.3)	30	173	0	5.8	5.8	43.3%
Jai Steib	RB				28	58	1	2.1	2.1	21.4%
Sam Craft	WR-S	6'0, 205	So.	3 stars (5.7)	24	110	5	4.6	3.3	41.7%
Robert Davis	RB	5'9, 170	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Tearris Wallace	RB	5'10, 212	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jarvis Cooper	RB	6'1, 255	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Joe Craig	WR-X	5'11, 175	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	63	37	338	58.7%	19.2%	50.8%	5.4	-132	5.4	41.3
Tevin Jones	WR-Z	6'2, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	54	25	292	46.3%	16.5%	51.9%	5.4	-70	5.6	35.7
Sam Craft	WR-S	6'0, 205	So.	3 stars (5.7)	50	31	337	62.0%	15.2%	78.3%	6.7	-46	5.0	41.2
Keiwone Malone	WR-X	5'11, 155	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	33	25	311	75.8%	10.1%	66.7%	9.4	31	9.7	38.0
Brandon Hayes	RB	5'8, 198	Sr.	NR	29	20	119	69.0%	8.8%	53.6%	4.1	-115	4.3	14.5
Mose Frazier	WR-S	5'11, 184	Jr.	NR	29	18	296	62.1%	8.8%	39.3%	10.2	74	10.6	36.2
Alan Cross	TE	6'1, 245	Jr.	NR	19	14	147	73.7%	5.8%	58.8%	7.7	-12	7.7	18.0
Daniel Hurd	WR-Z	6'2, 212	So.	3 stars (5.5)	16	8	91	50.0%	4.9%	76.9%	5.7	-20	5.0	11.1
Jesse Milleson	TE				13	9	59	69.2%	4.0%	61.5%	4.5	-46	4.3	7.2
Marquis Warford	RB				13	12	43	92.3%	4.0%	58.3%	3.3	-80	3.5	5.3
Adrian Henderson	WR	6'0, 196	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	4	3	17	75.0%	1.2%	25.0%	4.3	-17	4.1	2.1
Jai Steib	RB				3	3	23	100.0%	0.9%	50.0%	7.7	-7	9.1	2.8
Jamere Valentine	WR				2	1	5	50.0%	0.6%	0.0%	2.5	-9	1.1	0.6
Tyler Kolodny	TE	6'3, 245	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Roderick Proctor	WR	5'11, 161	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.6	2.66	2.84	37.4%	54.1%	23.4%	90.9	4.6%	8.3%
Rank	93	102	105	84	116	117	80	62	85

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Chris Schuetz	C				27
Al Bond	RG	6'4, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	27
Antonio Foster	LG				24
Taylor Fallin	LT	6'6, 330	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13
Nykiren Wellington	RT	6'7, 325	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	11
Micah Simmons	C	6'3, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7
Tony Mays	LT	6'4, 275	So.	2 stars (5.4)	2
Sam Thomas	RG	6'2, 285	So.	NR	0
Christopher Roberson	RT	6'5, 315	So.	NR	0
Daivon Milan	OL	6'3, 325	So.	NR	0
Kevin McIntyre	OL	6'4, 302	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Michael Stannard	OL	6'2, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Zach Collins	OL	6'4, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Tyler Uselton	OL	6'2, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Tyler Jones	OL	6'5, 271	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jace Neville	OL	6'6, 260	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. The line should come around, whatever that's worth

Rankings of 93rd (Adj. Line Yards) and 80th (Adj. Sack Rate) are far from strong, but when you look at Memphis' other efficiency ratings on offense, you see that, at worst, Memphis' line wasn't holding this offense back. (If you Google "tepid praise," I'm pretty sure this sentence will be the first result.)

To the extent that Fuente and predecessor Larry Porter recruited well, the three-star recruits really haven't come up front. But again, with solid size and depth of experience, this line should improve, even if improvement just means 83rd in Adj. Line Yards and 70th in Adj. Sack Rate.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.08	37	IsoPPP+	102.4	49
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.5%	42	Succ. Rt. +	104.5	43
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.4	87	Off. FP+	98.5	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.7	12	Redzone S&P+	98.7	65
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.5		ACTUAL	18.0	-0.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	39	37	43	52
RUSHING	12	31	50	42
PASSING	99	45	31	56
Standard Downs		30	40	48
Passing Downs		52	59	41

Q1 Rk	42	1st Down Rk	41
Q2 Rk	54	2nd Down Rk	34
Q3 Rk	50	3rd Down Rk	59
Q4 Rk	40

6. Opponents knew to pass

First things first: perhaps the most important person for Memphis returns this year.

That's defensive coordinator Barry Odom, who in two years took a defense that ranked 114th in Def. F/+ in both 2010 and 2011, improved it to 80th in 2012, then boosted it to 61st in 2013. The offense has remained the same in Fuente's tenure, but the defense has been responsible for a vast majority of Memphis' overall improvement. Odom was considered for the vacant Arkansas defensive coordinator position, but he will remain with Fuente for at least one more year.

As I admitted last year, I'm an unabashed Odom homer.

The Memphis defensive coordinator went to Ada High School in Oklahoma in the mid-1990s, and his team beat mine a couple of times in the state playoffs. He ended up attending my alma mater (Missouri) and serving as a stalwart linebacker, fighting through injuries and maintaining a steady presence, especially on the 1997-98 Tiger teams that attended the postseason after a long bowl drought. He spent nearly a decade on Gary Pinkel's Mizzou staff, as well. He's down-to-earth, likable, and full of promise as a defensive coach.

And if you don't trust me to give you an unbiased opinion on that last point, just look at the numbers instead. Under Larry Porter, Memphis' defense was nearly as bad as its offense. In both 2010 and 2011, the Tigers ranked 114th in Def. F/+; but in 2012, despite quite a bit of turnover up front, Memphis improved 34 spots, to 80th. The defense was below average in September, average in October, and downright good in November.

Being a homer is fine as long as you admit it, but I think my leaning has been backed up by performance in recent years. That he's back is a major boon for the 2014 Tigers.

That said, the defense did fade late, and as good as the Tigers were up front, they were a bit shaky in passing situations. The blitz wasn't very effective, and the secondary wasn't very successfully aggressive. And looking at the returning on-field personnel, it appears that strengths could get stronger and weaknesses could get weaker.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	117.1	2.54	2.64	35.6%	72.5%	23.9%	108.3	7.1%	5.0%
Rank	15	16	14	29	94	16	46	16	103

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Martin Ifedi	DE	6'3, 265	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	41.0	6.2%	14.5	10.5	0	1	1	0
Ricky Hunter	DE	6'3, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	29.5	4.5%	12.5	4.5	0	0	0	0
Jackson Dillon	DAWG	6'6, 230	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	24.5	3.7%	5.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Terry Redden	NT	6'2, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	22.5	3.4%	7.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Corey Jones	DE				12	19.0	2.9%	4.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
Kendrick Golden	DAWG	6'4, 215	Sr.	NR	12	10.0	1.5%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Johnnie Farms	NT				6	9.5	1.4%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Latarius Brady	DE	6'2, 270	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	8.0	1.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chase Rome	NT				10	8.0	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Cortez Crosby	DL	6'1, 280	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Isadore Outing	DE	6'4, 245	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Caleb Grant	DE	6'4, 240	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. One of the best mid-major lines

Memphis has produced its fair share of strong defensive linemen through the years. Dontari Poe was drafted in the first round in 2012, two other defensive tackles have been picked in the draft since 2004 (Clinton McDonald and Eric Taylor), and others like Kellen Heard and Tony Brown have bounced around through the years.

It would probably make sense, then, that the line was the first thing to come around for Odom's defense. Memphis' 2014 line was damn strong, with basically three down linemen and a "DAWG" rush end/OLB (not a "TIGER?"). Martin Ifedi was a strong pass rusher, Ricky Hunter was great against the run, and while the tackles don't really have tackle size, Terry Redden, a former star recruit, proved himself a potential play-maker.

All four of those players return. Despite a lack of wonderful size in the middle, Memphis ranked 15th in Adj. Line Yards and 31st in Rushing S&P+. I don't see those numbers dropping much, especially considering all three starting linebackers also return. The pass rush wasn't amazing outside of Ifedi, but you still win one battle by forcing opponents to become one-dimensional. Memphis did it in 2013 and could do it again in 2014.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tank Jakes	WILL	5'11, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	59.5	9.1%	7.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Charles Harris	MIKE	6'2, 243	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	58.5	8.9%	4.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Ryan Coleman	SAM	6'3, 225	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	50.0	7.6%	3.0	0.0	0	1	2	2
Anthony Brown	WILL				12	37.0	5.6%	4.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Leonard Pegues	MIKE	5'11, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	21.0	3.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Derek Howard	LB	6'2, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kewan Alfred	LB	6'3, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Wynton McManis	SAM	6'1, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Thomas Brown	LB	6'2, 210	So.	NR
Noah Robinson	LB	6'4, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Curtis Akins	LB	6'2, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Shareef White	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Andrew Gaines	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	NR	12	55.5	8.4%	0.5	0.5	0	7	0	0
Lonnie Ballentine	FS				12	47.5	7.2%	0	0	0	5	0	0
Anthony Watson	SS				10	28.5	4.3%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Reggis Ball	SS	5'11, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	28.0	4.3%	2.5	1.5	1	2	1	0
Bakari Hollier	CB	5'10, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	25.5	3.9%	1	0	1	8	0	0
Bobby McCain	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	9	23.0	3.5%	1	0	6	4	0	0
Dion Witty	FS	5'10, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	8	9.5	1.4%	0.5	0	1	2	0	0
Chris Morley	CB	5'11, 185	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	9.0	1.4%	2	0	1	4	0	0
Dontrell Nelson	DB	6'1, 170	So.	2 stars (5.3)	9	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fritz Etienne	S	6'2, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)
Phillip Sumpter	DB	5'11, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Ty Northern	DB	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Brujoun Bonner	DB	6'3, 190	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. One hole, basically

Returning nine starters from a good defense is unquestionably a good thing. But it is at least a little bit disconcerting that perhaps last year's biggest defensive weakness (big plays in the passing game) is going to be addressed with two new safeties this year.

Lonnie Ballentine and Anthony Watson weren't amazing, but they were starters, which suggests they were better than the alternatives. Redshirt freshman Phillip Sumpter was a standout in the spring game, and the rest of last year's two-deep returns intact (and it bears mentioning that the top three returning corners combined for seven picks and 19 break-ups), so hope is not lost here. But we can't really say with certainty that this year's pass defense will be any better than last year's.

Still, defense is not going to be Memphis' biggest concern. Far from it.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tom Hornsey			62	45.2	4	15	29	71.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jake Elliott	5'10, 160	So.	51	60.9	21	2	41.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jake Elliott	5'10, 160	So.	24-24	9-10	90.0%	7-8	87.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Joe Craig	KR	5'11, 175	Sr.	27	26.8	0
Marquis Warford	KR			12	22.3	0
Keiwone Malone	PR	5'11, 155	Sr.	25	6.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	15
Field Goal Efficiency	7
Punt Return Efficiency	43
Kick Return Efficiency	71
Punt Efficiency	7
Kickoff Efficiency	101
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	43

9. Replacing Hornsey

Despite some shaky kick coverage, Memphis had a top-20 special teams unit in 2013. This was due to Jake Elliott's place-kicking (nearly automatic, and strong, as a freshman) and Tom Hornsey's punting. Elliott is back, but Hornsey isn't; he was a fair-catch/inside-the-20 machine, and it will be difficult to replace his production.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Austin Peay	NR
6-Sep	at UCLA	15
20-Sep	Middle Tennessee	99
27-Sep	at Ole Miss	26
4-Oct	at Cincinnati	54
11-Oct	Houston	41
25-Oct	at SMU	74
31-Oct	Tulsa	64
7-Nov	at Temple	87
15-Nov	at Tulane	90
22-Nov	South Florida	77
29-Nov	Connecticut	86

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-22.6% (119)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	86
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-8 / -4.4
TO Luck/Game	-1.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	18 (9, 9)

10. Not the schedule for a breakthrough

Let's say that Memphis' offense improves from 107th in Off. F/+ to about 97th. Let's say the defense improves even further, from 61st in Def. F/+ to 51st. And let's say the special teams unit holds steady. That could bump Memphis into the No. 70-75 range overall, and it would represent a third straight year of solid improvement.

Unfortunately, it doesn't mean that the schedule would cooperate. A No. 75 Memphis team would still face six opponents projected higher (granted, I think that Tulsa projection is quite shaky...) and two more (Tulane, Temple) projected reasonably close and on the road. With a schedule that includes trips to UCLA, Ole Miss, and Cincinnati and almost no slam-dunk wins, a better Memphis team still might not be good enough.

That said, Fuente is building something here. Again, the wins need to follow at some point, but I've been impressed with what he's done to date, and I think his 2014 team is in good position to take another step forward, even if the Tigers might still be another year away from a potential bowl.