The big 2014 ECU football preview: Pirates will be worth watching

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1. Well THAT came together nicely...

You've got a decent offense, but your defense is lagging behind. You've been to two bowls in three years, but the quality of your team overall needs a boost. Hire a new defensive coordinator!

Tens of head coaches try this every year, but most of the time it doesn't have an incredible impact. Or, to put it a different way, for every positive outcome, there's a negative one and an outcome that changes nothing. For Ruffin McNeill, 19-19 after his first three seasons in charge in Greenville, it was the former. He hired former Skip Holtz assistant Rick Smith to jazz up an experienced defense, and Smith's take on the 3-4 defense was perfect for the personnel on hand. East Carolina improved from 91st in Def. F/+ to 51st.

Meanwhile, the defense's improvement coincided with an everything-comes-together season for quarterback Shane Carden. With targets new and old and a steady running back, Carden completed 71 percent of his passes, and ECU's offense improved from 77th in Off. F/+ to 34th.

It all came together for ECU in 2013, in other words. The Pirates went from a lucky 8-5 (with a 2-0 record in games decided by one possession) to an unlucky 10-3 (1-2 in one-possession games), barely missed out on the Conference USA title game in their last year in the conference, and departed for a new conference with a top-40 overall ranking. This is how a fan would draw it up, but it rarely comes together this nicely.

The one drawback to having an experienced team, however, is that it doesn't remain experienced forever. ECU heads to the AAC with quite a few stars -- Carden, receivers Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones, end Terrell Stanley, OLB/missile Montese Overton -- but the depth of experience on the offensive line and in the back eight of the defense has dissipated. ECU should be pretty good again and will have plenty of opportunities for upsets early in the season, but it might be difficult to put together a top-40 result again.

Still, McNeill has himself a hell of a staff and a hell of a quarterback; you could do worse than having that in your back pocket as you head off to a new league.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-3 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 40
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Old Dominion	N/A	52-38	W	25.4 - 36.6	L
5-Sep	Florida Atlantic	73	31-13	W	30.4 - 16.4	W
14-Sep	Virginia Tech	27	10-15	L	26.8 - 18.7	W
28-Sep	at North Carolina	38	55-31	W	40.2 - 25.8	W
5-Oct	at Middle Tennessee	85	24-17	W	30.3 - 26.1	W	5.9
12-Oct	at Tulane	70	33-36	L	39.7 - 27.3	W	10.6
19-Oct	Southern Miss	120	55-14	W	30.8 - 19.0	W	10.2
2-Nov	at Florida International	125	34-13	W	29.9 - 35.6	L	7.4
9-Nov	Tulsa	94	58-24	W	37.1 - 31.8	W	5.6
16-Nov	UAB	115	63-14	W	34.6 - 22.3	W	7.2
23-Nov	at N.C. State	92	42-28	W	37.3 - 29.6	W	6.2
29-Nov	at Marshall	52	28-59	L	35.5 - 28.7	W	5.2
23-Dec	vs. Ohio	104	37-20	W	37.0 - 24.2	W	9.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+7.4%	34	+2.2%	51	-0.8%	87
Points Per Game	40.2	8	24.8	50
Adj. Points Per Game	33.5	28	26.3	54

2. The defense did spring some leaks

ECU's defense improved dramatically in 2013, but the improvement faded a bit when the new-defense smell wore off. As was the case in 2012, opponents figured out they could pass relatively effectively and did so more frequently as the season progressed.

Adj. Points Per Game (games 2-7): ECU 33.0, Opponent 22.2 (plus-9.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (games 8-13): ECU 35.2, Opponent 28.7 (plus-6.5)

ECU was just a couple of breaks from heading to Marshall with an 11-0 record. The offense stalled in the second half against Virginia Tech in a five-point loss, and the Pirates outgained Tulane by 233 yards but fell in triple overtime thanks to a 99-yard pick six and a series of stalled drives.

Against Marshall, however, it wasn't close. Marshall quarterback Rakeem Cato completed 17 of 28 passes for 272 yards, and Marshall jumped out to a 24-0 lead 20 minutes in, then coasted. It was a disappointing result considering ECU had been the better team for most of the season (year-end F/+ rankings: ECU 40, Marshall 56), but the Pirates wrapped things up with an eventual thumping of Ohio in St. Petersburg and got to 10 wins for the first time since they went 11-1 and finished ninth in the country in their vaunted 1991 season.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.10	83	IsoPPP+	93.2	98
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.0%	16	Succ. Rt. +	114.2	22
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.7	60	Def. FP+	100.4	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	17	Redzone S&P+	96.9	75
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.8		ACTUAL	16	-8.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	25	32	22	31
RUSHING	92	62	48	106
PASSING	11	29	9	6
Standard Downs		39	20	72
Passing Downs		36	27	110

Q1 Rk	40	1st Down Rk	35
Q2 Rk	39	2nd Down Rk	63
Q3 Rk	62	3rd Down Rk	22
Q4 Rk	21

3. Dink, dunk, dink, dunk

East Carolina basically turns every opponent's defense into a bend-don't-break unit. The Pirates ranked 22nd in Success Rate+ (efficiency) and 98th in IsoPPP+ (explosiveness). Against basically everybody but Virginia Tech, they were able to ride a short passing game to great success, spreading you out, testing your tackling ability on the perimeter, then jabbing up the middle with Vintavious Cooper.

When ECU absolutely needed big plays, the Pirates didn't really get them. But as long as they were able to move the ball at their own pace (and since they didn't face many serious deficits, their own pace lasted for most of 2013), they were just fine. And they were able to frequently wear out defenses and create bigger gains late.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Shane Carden

6'2, 218

Sr.

2 stars (5.2)

387

549

4139

33

10

70.5%

29

5.0%

6.8

Cody Keith

6'3, 200

Jr.

3 stars (5.7)

7

11

57

0

0

63.6%

1

8.3%

3.9

Kurt Benkert

6'3, 206

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

Blake Kemp

6'3, 215

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

4. Shane Carden is underrated

Okay, he takes a few too many sacks given the quick-passing nature of his offense. But that's basically the only negative thing I can think to say about Carden heading into his senior season.

The senior caught fire about midway through his sophomore season, completing 68 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns to six picks over the last eight games of 2012; then he basically sustained that pace for most of 2013. He struggled against Virginia Tech (like basically every other quarterback in 2013) and Marshall, but his passing line in the other 11 games was as follows: 73 percent completion rate, 32 touchdowns, four interceptions. Carden makes solid reads and easy throws, and when he's forced to scramble, he does a rather efficient job of it.

His backfield complement, Vintavious Cooper, is gone, and that could hurt. Cooper's numbers were nothing if not solid -- solid efficiency, solid explosiveness. But his biggest service may have come as a bailout option. He caught 44 of 51 Carden passes and averaged nearly 10 yards per catch with them. He was perhaps the most reliable pass-catching running back in the country, and while this year's batch of running backs may be just fine (Breon Allen caught 10 of 10 passes for 138 yards, Chris Hairston showed high-end explosiveness potential, and redshirt freshman Marquez Grayson was very nearly a four-star recruit), it's not a given.

Carden's receiving corps will be a mix of new and old. His top two targets return, and they're perfect pieces for this type of offense; Justin Hardy and Isaiah Jones caught 78 percent of their passes and averaged an efficient 8.3 yards per target. At the same time, ECU's 2014 recruiting class was loaded with receivers, and any of six freshmen could see roles behind the big two.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Vintavious Cooper	RB				230	1193	13	5.2	4.9	39.6%
Breon Allen	RB	5'8, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	62	311	3	5.0	3.3	46.8%
Shane Carden	QB	6'2, 218	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	61	293	10	4.8	4.3	37.7%
Chris Hairston	RB	6'0, 194	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	49	186	3	3.8	6.6	22.4%
Cory Hunter	RB	5'10, 201	Jr.	NR	7	27	0	3.9	1.2	42.9%
Marquez Grayson	RB	6'1, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Anthony Scott	RB	5'9, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Justin Hardy	IR(Y)	6'0, 186	Sr.	NR	151	114	1284	75.5%	28.2%	65.7%	8.5	6	8.1	166.6
Isaiah Jones	IR(H)	6'1, 170	So.	2 stars (5.4)	76	62	604	81.6%	14.2%	60.9%	7.9	-67	8.1	78.4
Vintavious Cooper	RB				51	44	412	86.3%	9.5%	40.8%	8.1	-53	9.1	53.5
Reese Wiggins	OR(X)				43	26	372	60.5%	8.0%	79.5%	8.7	47	8.8	48.3
Cam Worthy	OR(X)	6'2, 217	Sr.	NR	34	19	295	55.9%	6.3%	63.0%	8.7	47	8.3	38.3
Lance Ray	OR(Z)				34	28	237	82.4%	6.3%	69.0%	7.0	-65	5.9	30.8
Davon Grayson	OR(X)	6'2, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	31	17	168	54.8%	5.8%	74.2%	5.4	-56	5.1	21.8
Danny Webster	WR				30	18	144	60.0%	5.6%	63.3%	4.8	-82	4.6	18.7
Bryce Williams	IR(Y)	6'6, 240	Jr.	NR	26	20	220	76.9%	4.9%	65.0%	8.5	-2	8.6	28.6
DaQuan Barnes	OR(Z)	6'1, 186	So.	NR	17	9	103	52.9%	3.2%	75.0%	6.1	-18	6.4	13.4
Breon Allen	RB	5'8, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	10	138	100.0%	1.9%	57.1%	13.8	39	11.6	17.9
Cedric Thompson	IR(H)	5'9, 183	Jr.	NR	5	4	38	80.0%	0.9%	100.0%	7.6	-6	3.1	4.9
Jimmy Williams	WR	5'11, 167	So.	NR	5	5	66	100.0%	0.9%	0.0%	13.2	16	5.9	8.6
Brandon Bishop	WR	5'11, 183	So.	NR
Darren Dowdell	TE	6'4, 228	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Curtis Burston	OR	6'1, 212	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Malik Gray	OR	6'1, 194	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Trevon Brown	OR	6'2, 192	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)
Quay Johnson	IR	5'10, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Steve Baggett	TE	6'5, 225	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Dre Massey	IR	6'0, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.9	2.77	4.15	38.2%	62.5%	21.5%	130.8	5.1%	5.1%
Rank	56	88	6	78	98	99	37	78	42

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Will Simmons	RG				38	1st All-CUSA
Jordan Davis	LG				37	2nd All-CUSA
Adhem Elsawi	RT				27
Ike Harris	LT	6'7, 304	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13
C.J. Struyk	C	6'2, 296	Jr.	NR	12
Taylor Hudson	C	6'5, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	8
Tre Robertson	RT	6'5, 325	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	6
Drew Gentry	RG				1
Marquis Wallace	RG	6'5, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Stewart Hinson	LT	6'7, 296	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Will Foxx	LG	6'2, 313	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Larry Williams	LG	6'4, 290	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Brandon Smith	RT	6'8, 344	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Christian Matau	C	6'3, 315	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Dontae Levingston	OL	6'4, 280	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Quincy McKinney	OL	6'4, 280	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. Red flag up front?

Of course, the biggest loss for Carden might not be Cooper. At the end of 2013, ECU had two three-year starters and a two-year starter on the offensive line; all three are gone. Four players with starting experience do return (39 career starts), but last year's line was good on standard downs and great on passing downs, and if that changes, ECU's efficiency-based offense might need a few more big plays than it's capable of generating.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.05	23	IsoPPP+	106.1	36
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.9%	20	Succ. Rt. +	95.6	73
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	34.2	1	Off. FP+	103.5	23
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	44	Redzone S&P+	94.6	78
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.7		ACTUAL	24.0	-0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	36	69	73	74
RUSHING	13	59	48	49
PASSING	95	72	91	90
Standard Downs		55	62	37
Passing Downs		83	93	34

Q1 Rk	53	1st Down Rk	36
Q2 Rk	105	2nd Down Rk	54
Q3 Rk	58	3rd Down Rk	121
Q4 Rk	65

6. Opponents knew to pass

Despite the new coordinator, ECU's defense was relatively similar in style in 2013 as it had been in 2012. The Pirates pulled off the same bend-don't-break approach they forced opposing defenses to take, sacrificing some efficiency in the name of big-play prevention.

Most of the efficiency issues came against the pass. Seven opponents completed at least 60 percent of their passes; not every offense was able to take advantage of this (Southern Miss, Tulsa, and UAB combined to complete 43 percent of their passes), but the decent and good ones were.

That will probably be the case again this year. ECU must replace four of its top six defensive backs and perhaps its best pass rusher (outside linebacker Derrell Johnson), so I doubt the Pirates will suddenly adopt an aggressive man defense. There's enough star power up front that the run defense could get better while the pass defense gets worse. And opponents will pass once again.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.7	2.68	3.32	33.3%	69.4%	19.0%	107.4	3.6%	10.3%
Rank	74	31	67	15	81	65	48	88	10

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Terrell Stanley	DE	6'2, 266	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	31.0	4.0%	10.0	7.0	0	1	0	0
Chrishon Rose	DE	6'4, 299	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	13	23.0	3.0%	6.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
Lee Pegues	DE				13	19.5	2.5%	7.0	4.5	0	1	1	0
Johnathon White	DE	6'4, 283	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	17.0	2.2%	3.0	3.0	0	1	1	0
Frederick Presley	NT	6'3, 323	So.	NR	11	13.0	1.7%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Terry Williams	NT	6'1, 322	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	5	9.0	1.2%	1.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
Demetri McGill	NT	6'1, 300	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	4.5	0.6%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
K'Hadree Hooker	DE	6'1, 294	So.	3 stars (5.7)
Randall Anderson	DE	6'4, 246	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

7. A damn strong 3-4 line

The best 3-4 lines have the requisite size, which is sometimes hard to put together at a mid-major; there are only so many huge nose tackles with any semblance of talent. But with a little bit of experimentation and a key transfer, ECU might have all the size it needs. It appears the Pirates will be able to start a 299-pound end and rotate between three 300-pound noses. And they welcome N.C. State transfer K'Hadree Hooker into the mix as well.

Between solid size up front and pursuit from the linebackers, ECU offered few opportunities for opposing runners. The size improves in 2014 and could offset some turnover at LB.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zeek Bigger	ILB	6'2, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	57.5	7.5%	4.5	1.5	1	5	0	0
Derrell Johnson	OLB				13	53.5	7.0%	13.0	7.0	1	3	0	0
Kyle Tudor	ILB				12	52.0	6.8%	3.0	0.5	1	3	0	0
Brandon Williams	ILB	6'1, 240	Sr.	NR	13	48.5	6.3%	5.5	0.5	1	2	1	1
Montese Overton	OLB	6'3, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	42.0	5.5%	10.5	6.0	0	2	2	0
Gabe Woullard	OLB				13	35.0	4.5%	4.5	2.0	0	4	2	0
Jeremy Grove	ILB				9	26.5	3.4%	2.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
Ty Holmes	ILB				11	12.5	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	2	0	1
Maurice Falls	OLB	6'2, 247	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	10.5	1.4%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Devaris Brunson	ILB	6'1, 210	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	7.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dayon Pratt	OLB	6'4, 224	So.	2 stars (5.4)	9	5.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jake Geary	OLB	6'3, 243	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Reece Speight	OLB	6'3, 236	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Cameron White	ILB	5'11, 213	So.	NR
Yiannis Bowden	OLB	6'5, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Joe Carter	ILB	6'2, 220	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Markel Winters	OLB	6'3, 226	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Damon Magazu	FS				13	60.5	7.9%	0	0	5	2	0	0
Chip Thompson	SS				13	46.5	6.0%	0.5	0	2	8	0	0
Adonis Armstrong	CB				13	41.0	5.3%	1.5	0	2	11	0	0
Detric Allen	CB	6'0, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	32.5	4.2%	1.5	0	0	3	0	0
Josh Hawkins	CB	5'10, 183	Jr.	NR	13	32.0	4.2%	1	0	1	4	0	0
Michael Dobson	SS				13	31.0	4.0%	0	0	1	4	0	0
DaShaun Amos	CB	6'1, 182	So.	NR	13	12.0	1.6%	0.5	0	1	2	0	0
DaShawn Benton	CB	6'0, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11	9.0	1.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Lamar Ivey	FS	6'1, 196	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Domonique Lennon	SS	6'2, 212	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	5.0	0.6%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Terrell Richardson	SS	6'0, 214	So.	NR	8	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rocco Scarfone	CB	5'11, 182	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Nate Mays	FS	5'10, 190	So.	NR
Travon Simmons	FS	5'10, 170	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Travis Phillips	CB	5'11, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)
Cody Purdie	SS	5'11, 183	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Drew Turnage	DB	6'0, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Corey Seargent	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Lots of questions in the back

Lots of defenses return five starters in a given year. It's not optimal, but you can survive it. The problem for ECU in 2014 might be that not only are the losses specialized in a couple of areas (linebacker, safety), but the second string was also hit pretty hard. In all, five of ECU's top eight linebackers are gone, as are the top three safeties.

ECU did sign quite a few interesting freshmen at these spots, that will matter more for 2015 and beyond. In 2014, ECU's success could come down to players like Domonique Lennon and Maurice Falls filling much larger roles than they've been asked to fill before.

This is a DB-friendly defense, in that ECU isn't asking for aggressive man coverage on islands, but you still need competence.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Trent Tignor			47	42.8	7	6	12	38.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Warren Harvey	5'11, 225	Sr.	86	59.3	30	4	34.9%
Davis Plowman	5'10, 185	Jr.	7	62.6	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Warren Harvey	5'11, 225	Sr.	61-63	12-16	75.0%	3-9	33.3%
Davis Plowman	5'10, 185	Jr.	3-3	1-1	100.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Lance Ray	KR			22	25.1	0
Isaiah Jones	KR	6'1, 170	So.	4	24.5	0
Justin Hardy	PR	6'0, 186	Sr.	20	11.3	0
Breon Allen	PR	5'8, 190	Sr.	8	7.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	87
Field Goal Efficiency	106
Punt Return Efficiency	53
Kick Return Efficiency	45
Punt Efficiency	92
Kickoff Efficiency	66
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	42

9. Hit-and-miss

It was a mixed bag for ECU in terms of special teams last year. The returns were strong (and should be again), but kicker Warren Harvey was a bit unreliable, and punter Trent Tignor outkicked his coverage a decent number of times. Special teams is a small-sample thing that can change pretty dramatically from year to year, but aside from Tignor, everybody's back, for better or worse.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	NC Central	NR
6-Sep	at South Carolina	4
13-Sep	at Virginia Tech	22
20-Sep	North Carolina	36
4-Oct	SMU	74
11-Oct	at South Florida	77
23-Oct	Connecticut	86
1-Nov	at Temple	87
15-Nov	at Cincinnati	54
22-Nov	Tulane	90
28-Nov	at Tulsa	64
4-Dec	Central Florida	24

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-2.0% (63)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	85
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	8 / -0.2
TO Luck/Game	+3.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (6, 5)

10. Plenty of opportunities to make some noise

There are certainly some questions here. A good portion of ECU's success was based on the ability of its safeties to prevent big plays and its offensive line to protect Shane Carden and create opportunities on passing downs. And both the line and secondary are facing rebuilds.

But it's pretty easy to like what you see elsewhere on this roster. Carden and his top two targets return, the front seven should still be big and fun, and there are candidates at running back and linebacker. All the secondary and offensive line have to do is avoid total collapse, and ECU could approximate last year's top-40 ranking.

If they end up in the No. 40-to-50 neighborhood, that introduces an array of possibilities. It puts ECU close enough to potential home wins over North Carolina and UCF. It makes the Pirates potentially prone to road losses to USF and Tulsa.

ECU should expect to reach another bowl, which is always a satisfactory in the first year in a new conference, but the Pirates will have every opportunity to make a bit more noise than that. This could be a pretty fun team to watch in 2014.