The big BYU football preview: Stats, identity, and the breakthrough

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1. Spreadsheet vs. win column

Sometimes the numbers see it before the eyes do.

When Jimbo Fisher took over at Florida State, he inherited a program that had finished in the F/+ top 40 just once in Bobby Bowden's final three seasons. Fisher's Seminoles improved to 18th in 2010 and 10th in 2011, but FSU fans were still a bit impatient thanks to only decent win-loss records (10-4 in 2010, 9-4 in 2011). Injuries and close losses were holding them back. Even in 2012, when the 'Noles ranked fifth in the F/+ rankings, they still managed to figure out a way to lose to NC State and blow a late lead against Florida to finish 12-2.

FSU's rapid rise became clear in 2013, however. For the third straight season, FSU took a nice step forward on paper, and that finally translated to a truly elite record and season.

The numbers tell a slightly more confusing, if still somewhat encouraging, story about BYU.

On paper, Bronco Mendenhall's Cougars have rebounded. After a stellar 11-2 campaign in 2009 (with a No. 22 F/+ ranking), they fell to 7-6 and 58th in 2010. They rebounded to 40th in 2011, however, then put a top-30 product on the field in both 2012 (23rd) and 2013 (30th).

That sounds appealing. However, after going 4-1 in one-possession games in 2011 (which contributed to an overachieving 10-3 record), BYU has gone 2-6 in such games in 2012-13. The result: back-to-back 8-5 seasons and a feeling of general stagnation. Fan interest has waned a bit, both because of records and style of play, and while we'll save the "Is winning all that matters (or do we need to be entertained while winning, too)?" discussion for another time, the bottom line is that the spreadsheets have a different view of BYU football than the eyeballs do.

Is this the year the two views align? And would that be a good or bad thing?

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 30
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Virginia	79	16-19	L	16.3 - 14.7	W
7-Sep	Texas	35	40-21	W	38.3 - 28.2	W
21-Sep	Utah	31	13-20	L	19.1 - 27.3	L
27-Sep	Middle Tennessee	85	37-10	W	37.2 - 6.8	W
4-Oct	at Utah State	32	31-14	W	32.7 - 19.0	W	9.5
12-Oct	Georgia Tech	34	38-20	W	38.2 - 22.7	W	12.3
19-Oct	at Houston	46	47-46	W	37.1 - 30.2	W	11.7
25-Oct	Boise State	45	37-20	W	36.1 - 22.0	W	16.1
9-Nov	at Wisconsin	19	17-27	L	26.2 - 20.0	W	11.3
16-Nov	Idaho State	N/A	59-13	W	29.1 - 19.5	W	10.4
23-Nov	at Notre Dame	26	13-23	L	26.1 - 26.8	L	7.2
30-Nov	at Nevada	88	28-23	W	29.1 - 24.1	W	6.8
27-Dec	vs. Washington	18	16-31	L	28.3 - 18.2	W	6.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+2.8%	51	+13.8%	15	-1.7%	95
Points Per Game	30.2	54	22.1	22
Adj. Points Per Game	30.3	52	21.5	15

2. A mid-season peak

BYU mastered the art of the competitive loss in 2013. After throttling Texas for 550 rushing yards in a 40-21 Week 2 win, the Cougars basically only got noticed while putting up a decent fight and eventually falling to ranked teams. They lost by 10 points at No. 22 Wisconsin and No. 20 Notre Dame, and after failing to capitalize on some second-quarter scoring opportunities (they crossed Washington's 40 on four consecutive possessions but settled for field goals three times), they eventually waned in the Fight Hunger Bowl and fell by 15.

In between those losses, when people weren't really paying attention, BYU looked awesome.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): BYU 24.6, Opponent 23.4 (plus-1.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): BYU 36.3, Opponent 20.1 (plus-16.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): BYU 27.8, Opponent 21.7 (plus-6.1)

After a frustrating home loss to Utah, BYU won five games in a row -- four by double digits, five against teams that went to bowls. This quite obviously boosted their ratings, and it raised expectations just enough to make the three losses at the end more frustrating.

BYU was clearly good in 2013, but the angst from BYU fans is understandable. The Cougars have everything you need as a good program other than actual, quantifiable breakthrough wins. Since 2010, BYU is 1-11 against ranked opponents and 32-8 against unranked opponents. In the last two years, those splits are 1-7 and 15-3.

When the Cougars have an athletic edge, they destroy you with it. But the offense has disappeared against good opponents (average score against ranked opponents the last two years: Opponent 21, BYU 14), and it has been costly. Does that change in 2014?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	59	IsoPPP+	108.2	27
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.9%	71	Succ. Rt. +	100.6	59
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.2	32	Def. FP+	102.4	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.6	110	Redzone S&P+	103.8	45
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.4		ACTUAL	21	-2.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	14	44	60	15
RUSHING	10	17	60	5
PASSING	73	68	60	51
Standard Downs		34	49	19
Passing Downs		66	64	72

Q1 Rk	51	1st Down Rk	54
Q2 Rk	21	2nd Down Rk	51
Q3 Rk	60	3rd Down Rk	33
Q4 Rk	84

3. The pace checklist

Robert Anae spent six seasons (2005-10) as Bronco Mendenhall's offensive coordinator at BYU before heading to Tucson to serve as Rich Rodriguez's run game coordinator at Arizona. His last BYU offense (2010) had fallen apart, but before that things were promising. BYU ranked 12th in Off. F/+ in 2007, 19th in 2008, and 22nd in 2009. And in his absence, the pace and points both slowed to a halt.

Mendenhall brought Anae back into the fold in 2013, promising an up-tempo, eyeballs-friendly offense. He delivered on the former. Based on run-pass ratios, BYU attempted 14.3 more plays per game than the average team last fall, the highest number in the country. Four of the top five rushers -- quarterback Taysom Hill, running backs Jamaal Williams and Adam Hine, H-back Paul Lasike -- averaged at least 5.5 highlight yards per opportunity (note: anything over 5.0 is pretty explosive). Leading receiver Cody Hoffman averaged 15.7 yards per catch.

BYU had big plays to go around and operated at a breakneck pace. So where did things go wrong? BYU's biggest issue was in simple efficiency: the Cougars didn't make enough mundane plays to go with the big ones. The downside of pace is that if you go three-and-out, you go three-and-out in the blink of an eye. Do that enough, and your defense suffers.

In terms of per-play and per-drive output, BYU's offense was basically the same in 2013 as it had been in 2012; the Cougars ranked 52nd in Off. F/+ in 2012 and 51st in 2013. Perhaps that was all BYU could have asked for, considering the Cougars were starting a new quarterback, working under a new system, and shuffling offensive linemen like a deck of cards.

But now the quarterback is familiar with the system, the backfield returns mostly intact, and last year's line shuffling is this year's rich experience. If BYU's offense is capable of improving, it will do so in 2014, perhaps by quite a bit. And if it doesn't, BYU will probably lose a few more 21-14 games.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Taysom Hill	6'2, 221	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	236	438	2938	19	14	53.9%	37	7.8%	5.7
Ammon Olsen				1	3	4	0	0	33.3%	0	0.0%	1.3
Christian Stewart	6'2, 201	Sr.	NR

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jamaal Williams	RB	6'0, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	217	1233	7	5.7	6.4	36.9%
Taysom Hill	QB	6'2, 221	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	209	1573	10	7.5	6.1	54.1%
Paul Lasike	HB	6'0, 227	Sr.	NR	59	351	1	5.9	5.5	44.1%
Algernon Brown	HB	6'1, 219	So.	3 stars (5.7)	48	234	2	4.9	4.1	33.3%
Adam Hine	RB	6'1, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	38	224	1	5.9	9.6	31.6%
Michael Alisa	RB				32	99	3	3.1	1.1	28.1%

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Cody Hoffman	WR				110	57	894	51.8%	26.4%	56.3%	8.1	119	8.0	95.6
Jordan Leslie (UTEP)	WR	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	77	44	612	57.1%	27.6%	48.5%	7.9	45	8.7	67.5
Skyler Ridley	WR				63	38	453	60.3%	15.1%	60.7%	7.2	-23	6.6	48.5
JD Falslev	SLOT				46	35	329	76.1%	11.1%	55.6%	7.2	-62	7.3	35.2
Mitch Mathews	WR	6'6, 206	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	39	23	397	59.0%	9.4%	50.0%	10.2	106	10.1	42.5
Ross Apo	WR	6'3, 207	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	32	14	204	43.8%	7.7%	60.0%	6.4	-6	6.8	21.8
Jamaal Williams	RB	6'0, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	25	18	125	72.0%	6.0%	70.8%	5.0	-81	5.3	13.4
Brett Thompson	SLOT	6'3, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	22	12	153	54.5%	5.3%	63.6%	7.0	-6	6.8	16.4
Kaneakua Friel	TE				22	11	128	50.0%	5.3%	47.6%	5.8	-25	5.8	13.7
Devin Mahina	TE	6'6, 247	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	10	7	64	70.0%	2.4%	90.0%	6.4	-17	8.2	6.8
Paul Lasike	HB	6'0, 227	Sr.	NR	9	5	30	55.6%	2.2%	33.3%	3.3	-35	2.7	3.2
Eric Thornton	WR	5'10, 180	Jr.	NR	8	1	6	12.5%	1.9%	0.0%	0.8	-31	0.5	0.6
Terenn Houk	SLOT	6'4, 213	Jr.	NR	8	2	8	25.0%	1.9%	83.3%	1.0	-35	3.2	0.9
Kurt Henderson	WR	6'1, 180	Jr.	NR	6	4	84	66.7%	1.4%	100.0%	14.0	36	3.3	9.0
Michael Davis	WR	6'2, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Colby Pearson	WR	6'0, 190	So.	NR
Nick Kurtz	WR	6'6, 205	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)
Devon Blackmon	WR	6'1, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)

4. Transfusion

There's reason to be really excited about the BYU run game this year. Efficiency really was an issue, but the potential is obvious. The Cougars had 117 rushes of 10+ yards in 2013, sixth in the country, and they return their top five ball-carriers and a line with all sorts of continuity. I would expect said continuity to lead to increased rush efficiency, and if BYU is staying on schedule more frequently with that epic pace, opposing defenses will wear down.

Still, whether this is a solid offense or a very good one depends on the passing game. When the Cougars fell behind schedule, they were not very adept at catching back up, and that was with the services of all-or-nothing Cody Hoffman and possession receivers Skyler Ridley and JD Falslev. It's rare to improve your passing attack while replacing your top three targets, but BYU will have at least a chance of doing that.

Reason No. 1: Mitch Mathews. It probably isn't a coincidence that BYU's offensive output slowed down when Mathews was lost with a shoulder injury against Wisconsin. Mathews emerged as a solid No. 2 threat during BYU's five-game win streak, catching 17 passes for 312 yards and four touchdowns (three against Utah State).

Reason No. 2: Jordan Leslie. UTEP's leading receiver for each of the last two years, he's on his way to Provo as a graduate transfer. He averaged 16.7 yards per catch in 2012-13, and while there's no guarantee he can be as productive as Hoffman, he was close to that with lesser personnel in El Paso.

If Mathews and Leslie are able to provide a solid one-two punch, the rest of the receiving corps takes shape nicely. Between Ross Apo, Brett Thompson, and junior college transfers Nick Kurts (a four-star get) and Devon Blackman, the Cougars should be able to find a solid No. 3 guy. And with a potentially strong, more efficient run game, the Cougars probably won't need more than three key targets.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	118.1	3.42	3.66	42.3%	76.7%	16.6%	79.9	7.5%	8.7%
Rank	7	9	30	33	17	23	95	112	91

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Solomone Kafu	LG	6'2, 315	Sr.	2 stars (4.9)	19
Ryker Mathews	RT	6'6, 309	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	17
Michael Yeck	RT	6'8, 292	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13
Manaaki Vaitai	LG				11
De'Ondre Wesley	RT	6'7, 330	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	9
Terrance Alletto	LG	6'3, 292	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	7
Kyle Johnson	RT	6'4, 295	So.	NR	7
Edward Fusi	C	6'0, 317	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	6
Brock Stringham	RG	6'6, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	6
Brayden Kearsley	RG	6'4, 295	So.	4 stars (5.8)	2
Brad Wilcox	LT				1
Parker Dawe	C	6'3, 284	So.	NR	0
Austin Chambers	OL	6'5, 297	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tuni Kanuch	RG	6'2, 325	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Ului Lapuaho	LT	6'7, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. This line could be spectacular

In game one, BYU's starting line was (from left to right), Ryker Mathews, Solomone Kafu, Terrance Alletto, Brock Stringham, and Michael Yeck. Kafu struggled and was replaced by Manaaki Vaitai, with others shuffling around. Two games later, Kyle Johnson and De'Ondre Wesley entered the lineup, and Kafu reentered it. Then Brayden Kearlsey replaced Johnson.

By the end of the season, BYU had changed its starting lineup seven different times, and 11 different linemen finished the season with starting experience. That's crazy. Even crazier: BYU still ranked seventh in Adj. Line Yards. BYU's offense might have struggled against good teams, but against less-than-great defensive fronts, the Cougars dominated despite the revolving door.

That could mean great things for 2014. Nine of the 11 players with starting experience return (86 career starts), and BYU boasts quite a bit of depth overall, especially as Kearsley, a former four-star recruit, gets more experienced and three-star freshmen like Tuni Kanuch (a former defensive lineman who is back from a two-year mission) enter the mix.

Pass protection could be an issue, not in small part because Hill is a mobile quarterback who tries to do a bit too much at times, but BYU wants to run a lot and should have a line capable of providing running lanes.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.09	40	IsoPPP+	106.0	37
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.6%	9	Succ. Rt. +	114.2	19
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.8	73	Off. FP+	100.5	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.6	11	Redzone S&P+	122.9	8
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	28.4		ACTUAL	23.0	-5.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	48	21	19	26
RUSHING	57	11	20	19
PASSING	46	33	25	60
Standard Downs		18	15	26
Passing Downs		30	22	74

Q1 Rk	27	1st Down Rk	11
Q2 Rk	30	2nd Down Rk	29
Q3 Rk	3	3rd Down Rk	25
Q4 Rk	62

6. Bronco knows defense

BYU ranked 10th and 15th in Def. F/+ over the last two seasons. The Cougars were beefy up front and boasted the services of Kyle Van Noy, an all-time great at OLB, but even before 2012 the Cougars ranked in the Def. F/+ four times in five years.

Without Van Noy, and with quite a bit of turnover up front, we might be looking more at a top-40 defense than top-15, but it's hard to worry too much about a Bronco Mendenhall and Nick Howell defense. The Cougars run a sound, stout 3-4, and losses up front could be countered to a degree by a potentially loaded secondary.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	114.2	2.54	3.01	32.9%	55.3%	22.5%	91.3	3.3%	6.3%
Rank	21	16	31	9	7	22	77	99	75

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Eathyn Manumaleuna	NT				13	34.5	4.2%	6.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Remington Peck	DE	6'4, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	30.0	3.7%	4.0	3.0	0	1	0	0
Marques Johnson	NT	6'2, 308	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	25.5	3.1%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Doman	DE				4	4.5	0.6%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Merrill Taliauli	DE				8	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Logan Taele	DE	6'2, 251	Jr.	NR	10	3.0	0.4%	2.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Graham Rowley	DE	6'4, 280	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Kesni Tausinga	DE	6'1, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Travis Tuiloma	NT	6'2, 320	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kalolo Utu	DL	6'1, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)
JonRyheem Peoples	NT	6'4, 339	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Zac Dawe	NT	6'4, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Isaiah Nacua	DE	6'3, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Uriah Leiataua	DE	6'3, 245	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Uani' Unga	MLB				13	99.5	12.2%	7.5	0.0	0	3	1	1
Kyle Van Noy	WLB				13	54.0	6.6%	17.0	4.0	2	7	0	0
Alani Fua	SLB	6'5, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	47.0	5.8%	5.0	3.0	2	9	0	0
Austen Jorgensen	LB				8	34.5	4.2%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Tyler Beck	BLB				12	30.0	3.7%	2.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Bronson Kaufusi	DE/WLB	6'7, 263	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	13	29.0	3.6%	7.0	4.0	1	6	1	0
Spencer Hadley	SLB				6	24.0	2.9%	2.5	1.0	1	2	0	0
Manoa Pikula	BLB	6'1, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	23.0	2.8%	4.0	3.0	0	4	0	0
Jherremya Leuta-Douyere	BLB	6'0, 236	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	13.0	1.6%	2.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Teu Kautai	MLB	6'1, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	3	3.5	0.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Alisa	SLB	6'1, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)
Zac Stout	MLB	6'1, 217	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)
Austin Heder	MLB	6'1, 241	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Sae Tautu	WLB	6'3, 245	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Fred Warner	LB	6'3, 210	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Tyler Cook	LB	6'3, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Sione Takitaki	LB	6'3, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. A test of recruiting and depth

System and coaching mean a lot on defense, and generally speaking, losses on defense are less costly than the same amount of losses on offense.

That said, 2014 will be a test of BYU's system, coaching, depth, recruiting, and everything else. The Cougars in no way had a one-man defense in 2013, but the loss of Van Noy is still significant. He was one of college football's best play-makers, and BYU is tasked with replacing not only him, but three other starters up front. The Cougars played basically four linemen all season (including Bronson Kaufusi, who appears to have moved to OLB in Van Noy's absence (and could be absolutely terrifying with his size), so while two of the three return, the loss of stalwart Eathyn Manumaleuna could hurt. There are plenty of candidates to replace him, and BYU is not hurting for size.

Still, we can't assume that newcomers to the rotation are automatically going to succeed.

Meanwhile, five of last year's top six linebackers are gone, leaving Alani Fua and Kaufusi to man the outside spots while relative newcomers fill in on the inside. Again, there is a wealth of candidates here, from Manoa Pikula to some highly touted freshmen. But the level of proven production has diminished significantly.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Craig Bills	KAT	6'1, 205	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	12	64.0	7.8%	2.5	0	2	7	1	0
Robertson Daniel	CB	6'1, 198	Sr.	NR	13	56.5	6.9%	1	1	2	6	1	0
Daniel Sorensen	KAT				13	52.0	6.4%	4	0	2	12	1	0
Jordan Johnson (2012)	CB	5'10, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	41.5	6.6%	1.5	0	1	15	0	1
Skye PoVey	FS	5'11, 200	Sr.	NR	12	39.0	4.8%	1	0	1	5	0	0
Mike Hague	CB				8	33.5	4.1%	1	1	0	5	0	0
Blake Morgan	DB				13	27.5	3.4%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Harvey Jackson (Nebraska)	S	6'2, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	26.5	3.8%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Davis	CB	6'2, 180	So.	2 stars (5.3)	9	15.5	1.9%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Dallin Leavitt	FS	5'11, 198	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13	14.5	1.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Kai Nacua	KAT	6'1, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	8	8.5	1.0%	2	0	0	2	0	0
Chris Badger	DB	6'0, 197	So.	3 stars (5.7)	10	5.0	0.6%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Wadsworth	DB	6'1, 205	Jr.	NR	13	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Trevor Bateman	CB	5'9, 178	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	1	2.0	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Trent Trammell	CB	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kavika Fonua	DB	5'11, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

8. A loaded secondary

There's a decent amount of turnover in the secondary, but that might not be a bad thing. Pass defense was a relative weakness, from the pass rush to the secondary's propoensity for giving up big plays.

The pass rush might not improve (it might not regress, either), but with the return of cornerback Jordan Johnson and the addition of Nebraska transfer Harvey Jackson, BYU could be able to account for the loss of safety Daniel Sorensen (an underrated play-maker) and Mike Hague. Johnson was a breakout stud in 2012 but was lost with injury before the season began. With Craig Bills and Johnson back, one should once again expect BYU's secondary to get its hands on some passes and make plays near the line.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Scott Arellano	6'1, 190	Sr.	80	41.0	10	19	28	58.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Justin Sorensen			80	63.0	37	1	46.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Justin Sorensen			45-45	18-21	85.7%	3-5	60.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Adam Hine	KR	6'1, 202	Jr.	31	27.2	0
Paul Lasike	KR	6'0, 227	Sr.	10	20.8	0
JD Falslev	PR			26	9.7	1
Cody Hoffman	PR			8	8.6	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	95
Field Goal Efficiency	65
Punt Return Efficiency	98
Kick Return Efficiency	41
Punt Efficiency	102
Kickoff Efficiency	108
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	88

9. Field position wins, field position losses

BYU's relationship with field position was confusing in 2013. The Cougars had an inefficient offense and sketchy kick and punt coverage but still ranked 30th in (opponent-adjusted) defensive field position. Meanwhile, the defense was all sorts of efficient, and kick returner Adam Hine was awesome, but BYU ranked 55th in offensive field position.
Sometimes the pieces don't always fit together on the spreadsheet, I guess, especially when BYU's involved. Regardless, Hine returns, which is a good thing.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	at Connecticut	93
6-Sep	Texas	38
11-Sep	Houston	42
20-Sep	Virginia	62
3-Oct	Utah State	49
9-Oct	at Central Florida	27
18-Oct	Nevada	70
24-Oct	at Boise State	23
1-Nov	at Middle Tennessee	98
15-Nov	UNLV	101
22-Nov	Savannah State	NR
29-Nov	at California	82

Five-Year F/+ Rk	11.1% (28)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	73
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	2 / 5.0
TO Luck/Game	-1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (8, 5)

10. A top-30 team goes 10-2 (in theory)

BYU's scheduling since leaving the Mountain West has been pretty fun and impressive; the Cougars have played Ole Miss, Texas, UCF, Oregon State, TCU, Washington State, Utah, Boise State, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Houston, and Utah State over the last three years, among them those eight ranked opponents since the start of 2012.

BYU has also gone just 8-5 in each of the last two years, and the natives are getting restless.

So maybe it's a good time for a lesser slate. The Cougars play just two teams projected in the top 30, and one of the two (Boise State) is projected there more because of previous years' successes than anything that happened in 2013. Teams like Utah State or Boise State might end up ranked, but BYU might get to the end of the regular season having played only one ranked team (UCF). That's not exciting, but if the defense stays sound, that could result in a breakthrough in the win column. And if these wins coincide with an offensive surge -- certainly conceivable -- maybe that will do more to excite the fanbase than playing good teams and losing.

BYU's in an interesting spot right now; the Cougars are a top-30 team without top-30 results, a team going through a bit of a shift in identity. The Cougars struggled on offense recently but returns a lot of experience on that side of the ball, and they dominated on defense but have a lot of production to replace.

They are a pretty good "optimist vs. pessimist" test case, because whatever you think is going to happen with BYU this year, you've got evidence on your side.