The big 2014 Notre Dame football preview: Act II for Kelly (and Golson)

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1. Act II of Brian Kelly's Notre Dame career begins

Update, August 15: Four key contributors have reportedly been dismissed. Adjust expectations accordingly.

Barring something drastic, the fifth year of Brian Kelly's tenure at Notre Dame should result in something that hasn't come around since 1991: a sixth year for a Notre Dame coach. Bob Davie and Charlie Weis each lasted five years. Ty Willingham lasted almost three. But while Kelly has only twice finished a season ranked (same as both Davie and Weis), his recruiting and depth are solid, and he's gone 21-5 in the last two seasons.

Sure, Notre Dame was drastically outmanned in the national title game in 2012, and sure, there was a three-game regression last fall. But the Irish program is pretty healthy, and there's no reason to think Kelly won't put another good team on the field this fall. That said ... there's change coming.

Kelly has been successful enough in South Bend that other schools are taking away his top assistants. Offensive coordinator Chuck Martin is now the head coach at Miami (Ohio). Defensive coordinator Bob Diaco is now the head coach at UConn.

And many of the key pieces of recent Notre Dame squads -- defensive tackles Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix III, offensive linemen Zack Martin and Chris Watt, inside linebackers Dan Fox and Carlo Calabrese, tight end Troy Niklas, and of course quarterback Tommy Rees -- are gone, which leaves a bit of an identity void.

Kelly has plenty of former star recruits to fill the holes, and he welcomes quarterback Everett Golson back into the fold. But Act I of Kelly's time in South Bend, which starred Diaco, Martin, Manti Te'o, Tuitt, Nix, etc., is over, for better or worse.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 26
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Temple	98	28-6	W	38.3 - 20.4	W
7-Sep	at Michigan	37	30-41	L	35.0 - 34.3	W
14-Sep	at Purdue	114	31-24	W	21.6 - 31.4	L
21-Sep	Michigan State	6	17-13	W	26.6 - 16.3	W
28-Sep	Oklahoma	20	21-35	L	33.3 - 33.9	L	3.7
5-Oct	vs. Arizona State	13	37-34	W	31.1 - 28.0	W	0.8
19-Oct	USC	11	14-10	W	26.2 - 22.3	W	1.4
26-Oct	at Air Force	113	45-10	W	31.7 - 22.5	W	5.2
2-Nov	Navy	58	38-34	W	55.7 - 28.8	W	8.5
9-Nov	at Pittsburgh	54	21-28	L	33.3 - 27.5	W	9.8
23-Nov	BYU	30	23-13	W	39.3 - 23.8	W	12.3
30-Nov	at Stanford	3	20-27	L	26.7 - 32.3	L	10.4
28-Dec	vs. Rutgers	91	29-16	W	31.9 - 19.8	W	10.9

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+11.6%	24	+6.4%	33	-0.5%	82
Points Per Game	27.2	74	22.4	27
Adj. Points Per Game	33.1	33	26.2	53

2. Above average to good

It was a strange season for Notre Dame, and not only because the Irish never put their intended 22-man starting lineup on the field for one play. Everett Golson's academics-related absence cleared the way for one final year of Tommy Rees, and the injuries and shuffling added up on both sides of the ball.

But even with the insecure personnel situations, this was a season that saw the Irish beat the No. 6, No. 11 and No. 13 teams (according to the F/+ rankings) and stay within seven points of the No. 3 team on the road. It also saw them lose to the No. 37 and No. 54 teams and beat No. 114 by just seven. You never really knew what you were getting from the Irish from week to week, but as a whole, the team improved over the last half of the year.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Notre Dame 30.3, Opponent 26.7 (plus-3.6)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 6 games): Notre Dame 36.4, Opponent 25.8 (plus-8.6)

The defense held steady despite losing Nix to injury, while the offense simply improved. This was a solid team at the end of the year, but with the amount of personnel turnover, both on the field and on the sideline, that probably doesn't mean a lot. More new faces mean less carryover. The Irish are starting fresh this fall.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	28	IsoPPP+	111.4	19
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.2%	56	Succ. Rt. +	112.8	24
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.8	62	Def. FP+	103.4	21
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	87	Redzone S&P+	95.5	82
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.8		ACTUAL	17	+1.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	68	18	24	26
RUSHING	81	23	18	45
PASSING	39	15	26	30
Standard Downs		8	14	4
Passing Downs		47	44	79

Q1 Rk	16	1st Down Rk	12
Q2 Rk	36	2nd Down Rk	37
Q3 Rk	13	3rd Down Rk	34
Q4 Rk	70

3. Play-calling 101

Of the two ex-coordinators, Bob Diaco probably had the higher profile overall. This shows in the fact that he got a job higher on the totem pole, but it's also reflected in the numbers. Notre Dame had a Def. F/+ ranking of 16th or better in three of Diaco's four seasons and produced a Heisman finalist in Te'o. Martin's two years as offensive coordinator produced what seemed to most to be lesser results.

That's not entirely true, however. Notre Dame's offense graded out better than its defense in each of the past two years; the Irish ranked ninth in Off. F/+ and 13th in Def. F/+ in 2012, then ranked 24th and 33rd, respectively, in 2013.

Despite Tommy Rees' turnover-prone reputation and the fact that three of last year's top five targets had catch rates under 49 percent, Martin managed his personnel well. He called more passes than the national average on standard downs and more rushes than average on passing downs; this is often the play-calling approach when you've got either a mobile quarterback who doesn't handle pressure very well or a young quarterback who doesn't handle pressure very well. Rees was neither, but the approach worked pretty well. Notre Dame ranked eighth in Standard Downs S&P+, and while big plays on passing downs were almost non-existent, the Irish still moved the ball.

Kelly and new coordinator Mike Denbrock, an on-and-off Kelly assistant since their Grand Valley State days 20 years ago, have a pretty high bar to meet in terms of play-calling, but if they can engineer a bit more success when it comes to finishing drives, that wouldn't hurt. Notre Dame had to settle for a lot of field goals in 2013, and field goals are a failing strategy for the most part.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Tommy Rees				224	414	3257	27	13	54.1%	8	1.9%	7.6
Andrew Hendrix				2	14	56	0	0	14.3%	0	0.0%	4.0
Everett Golson (2012)	6'0, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	187	318	2405	12	6	58.8%	15	4.5%	7.0
Malik Zaire	6'0, 208	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)
DeShone Kizer	6'2, 176	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

4. Hey, Everett

Getting Everett Golson back certainly won't hurt from a drive-finishing standpoint. He led the team with six rushing touchdowns in 2012, though that might say more about the 2012 running backs than Golson himself. He is an efficient, if not particularly explosive, runner, and he'll add a dynamic that Notre Dame did not have last year. (Granted, Notre Dame did have a rushing quarterback in Andrew Hendrix. But Golson can actually pass, too.)

Golson is the total package, or at least he could be. After a shaky start to his redshirt freshman season in 2012, he survived battles against one great defense after another (Michigan State, Stanford, USC, Alabama), and he improved down the stretch. In the last four games of 2012 (including battles against USC and Alabama), he completed 72 of 116 passes (62 percent) for 1,033 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. Rees led a pretty explosive passing game in 2013, but the efficiency could have been a little better. It should be quite a bit better with Golson.

From a skill position standpoint, Golson inherits an interesting mix of experience and potential. Leading rusher Cam McDaniel and No. 1 target DaVaris Daniels have plenty of the former; their production was rather shaky in 2013 -- McDaniel because he lacked any semblance of explosiveness (anything below about 4.0 highlight yards per carry is unimpressive, and McDaniel was at 3.5), Daniels because he lacked any semblance of efficiency (a 44-percent catch rate takes the sizzle out of 15.2 yards per catch). Daniels averaged a fantastic 10.7 yards per target as the No. 4 target in 2012, so perhaps Golson's accuracy will help him break out again. (This is assuming Daniels is actually on the team; he was removed from the roster for academics, just like Golson was in 2013. It would be a surprise if he were not back, however.)

The potential improves as you go further down the list of returning talent. Tarean Folston was possibly Notre Dame's most efficient and explosive back (though he still wasn't incredibly explosive) last year, and five-star redshirt freshman Greg Bryant waits his turn. At receiver, Chris Brown (in 2012) and Corey Robinson (in 2013) each showed hints of freshman potential but had to wait their turn in the rotation. With T.J. Jones gone, the Irish need another explosive option, and either of these two, or perhaps Will Fuller or Torii Hunter, Jr., could fit the bill. There is a high volume of potential in the receiving corps, but the proven production is basically limited to Daniels, and tight end Troy Niklas is no longer around as a passing downs bailout option.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Cam McDaniel	RB	5'10, 207	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	152	704	3	4.6	3.5	42.1%
George Atkinson III	RB				93	555	3	6.0	5.8	43.0%
Tarean Folston	RB	5'9, 207	So.	4 stars (5.9)	88	470	3	5.3	4.2	46.6%
Amir Carlisle	RB/WR	5'10, 190	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	47	204	0	4.3	3.7	38.3%
Andrew Hendrix	QB				16	26	1	1.6	2.1	37.5%
TJ Jones	WR				9	67	2	7.4	6.6	55.6%
Greg Bryant	RB	5'10, 204	RSFr.	5 stars (6.1)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
DaVaris Daniels	WR	6'1, 203	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	111	49	745	44.1%	27.1%	58.6%	6.7	14	6.7	114.7
TJ Jones	WR				109	70	1108	64.2%	26.7%	65.4%	10.2	259	10.3	170.6
Troy Niklas	TE				53	32	498	60.4%	13.0%	50.9%	9.4	98	9.3	76.7
Chris Brown	WR	6'2, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	31	15	209	48.4%	7.6%	60.0%	6.7	-3	7.1	32.2
Amir Carlisle	RB/WR	5'10, 190	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	18	7	30	38.9%	4.4%	62.5%	1.7	-83	1.5	4.6
Corey Robinson	WR	6'4, 205	So.	4 stars (5.8)	16	9	157	56.3%	3.9%	37.5%	9.8	40	12.0	24.2
Ben Koyack	TE	6'5, 261	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	15	10	171	66.7%	3.7%	46.7%	11.4	52	12.3	26.3
William Fuller	WR	6'0, 171	So.	4 stars (5.8)	15	6	160	40.0%	3.7%	84.6%	10.7	65	8.1	24.6
C.J. Prosise	WR	6'1, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	7	72	58.3%	2.9%	70.0%	6.0	-17	6.1	11.1
Cam McDaniel	RB	5'10, 207	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	6	34	60.0%	2.4%	40.0%	3.4	-41	3.8	5.2
George Atkinson III	RB				10	7	51	70.0%	2.4%	77.8%	5.1	-30	5.0	7.9
Tarean Folston	RB	5'9, 207	So.	4 stars (5.9)	6	5	35	83.3%	1.5%	60.0%	5.8	-19	5.6	5.4
Torii Hunter, Jr.	WR	6'0, 178	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Mike Heuerman	TE	6'3, 225	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Durham Smythe	TE	6'4, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Justin Brent	WR	6'1, 204	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Nic Weishar	TE	6'4, 215	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Corey Holmes	WR	6'2, 176	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.9	2.99	3.01	42.7%	64.9%	19.4%	308.0	1.2%	2.8%
Rank	22	59	88	24	82	69	2	2	8

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Zack Martin	LT				52
Chris Watt	LG				37
Christian Lombard	RG	6'5, 315	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	20
Ronnie Stanley	LT	6'5, 318	So.	4 stars (5.8)	13
Nick Martin	C	6'4, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11
Steve Elmer	LG	6'5, 317	So.	4 stars (6.0)	4
Conor Hanratty	RG	6'4, 309	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	4
Matt Hegarty	C	6'4, 300	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	2
Hunter Bivin	RT	6'5, 291	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0
Mark Harrell	RG	6'4, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Colin McGovern	LT	6'4, 313	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Mike McGlinchey	RT	6'7, 290	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
John Monteus	LG	6'4, 320	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)
Quenton Nelson	OL	6'5, 302	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
Alex Bars	OL	6'6, 290	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Sam Mustipher	OL	6'3, 294	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jimmy Byrne	OL	6'4, 285	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

5. A killer line

Despite quite a bit of shuffling, despite youth, despite Tommy Rees' tendency to look downfield a lot, and despite a lack of explosiveness at the running back position, Notre Dame's offensive line thrived in 2013. The Irish were one of seven offenses to rank in the top 25 for both Adj. Line Yards and Adj. Sack Rate -- the others: Texas A&M, Northern Illinois, Miami, Florida State, Arkansas, and Duke -- and while those ratings reflect on more than just the linemen themselves, that's rather impressive.

The Irish do have to replace two longtime starters on the left side; Zack Martin was a four-year starter and Notre Dame's lone first-round pick in last week's draft, and Chris Watt was a three-year starter.

But one has to be enamored with the potential. Sophomores Ronnie Stanley and Steve Elmer are keepers, the experience level is still solid (six players with starting experience, 54 career starts), and there are plenty of high-ceiling newcomers who could end up on the two-deep: Hunter Bivin, John Monteus, Mike McGlinchey (a projected starter at the end of spring), Quenton Nelson, Alex Bars, etc. Martin and Watt were good, but it still seems the line will be a major strength.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.96	4	IsoPPP+	117.8	5
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.2%	96	Succ. Rt. +	94.9	76
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.1	90	Off. FP+	100.5	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	31	Redzone S&P+	108.1	32
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.2		ACTUAL	17.0	+0.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	31	48	76	37
RUSHING	71	55	80	23
PASSING	15	50	82	75
Standard Downs		59	77	23
Passing Downs		40	65	1

Q1 Rk	65	1st Down Rk	59
Q2 Rk	38	2nd Down Rk	42
Q3 Rk	65	3rd Down Rk	44
Q4 Rk	21

6. Quite an identity change

The Notre Dame offense has been better than perceived over the last couple of years, but the Irish identity has centered around the defense. Diaco's 3-4 combined conservative, bend-don't-break tendencies with extreme play-making ability up front, and the results were solid.

With Diaco gone, Kelly didn't promote from within. He brought in Brian VanGorder, another former Grand Valley State assistant, who has spent most of the last two decades as a defensive coordinator at UCF, Central Michigan, Western Illinois, Georgia, Auburn, and with the Atlanta Falcons. He brings a rather aggressive 4-3 defense to the table, and it will be interesting to see how aggressive he is allowed to be. Bend-don't-break principles weren't quite as effective last year without Te'o and eventually Nix. And with turnover in the front seven, it might be a good time for an identity change. But change isn't automatically great.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.9	3.11	3.77	41.5%	62.8%	17.2%	72.2	5.5%	4.5%
Rank	73	88	108	88	37	89	108	41	110

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Stephon Tuitt	DE				13	36.5	5.1%	9.0	7.5	1	2	1	0
Sheldon Day	DT	6'2, 290	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	27.0	3.8%	5.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Louis Nix III	DT				8	19.0	2.6%	2.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Jarron Jones	DT	6'5, 305	So.	4 stars (5.8)	12	15.0	2.1%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Romeo Okwara	DE	6'4, 258	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	14.5	2.0%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kona Schwenke	DT				12	14.5	2.0%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Ishaq Williams	DE	6'5, 271	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	11	11.0	1.5%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Isaac Rochell	DE	6'3, 280	So.	4 stars (5.9)	11	7.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Utupo	DT	6'1, 290	Sr.	NR	13	5.5	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Rabasa	DE	6'2, 243	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	5	5.0	0.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tony Springman	DE	6'6, 296	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Chase Hounshell	DT	6'4, 271	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Jacob Matuska	DT	6'4, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Jay Hayes	DT	6'4, 275	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Andrew Trumbetti	DT	6'4, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dan Fox	ILB				13	69.5	9.7%	5.0	1.0	2	2	0	1
Carlo Calabrese	ILB				13	67.0	9.3%	5.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Jaylon Smith	OLB	6'2, 230	So.	5 stars (6.1)	13	54.0	7.5%	6.5	0.0	1	3	1	0
Prince Shembo	OLB				13	37.0	5.2%	5.5	5.5	0	0	1	0
Jarrett Grace	ILB	6'2, 253	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	7	29.0	4.0%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Joe Schmidt	ILB	6'0, 230	Sr.	NR	13	12.5	1.7%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Ben Councell	OLB	6'4, 254	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	9	12.5	1.7%	1.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Kendall Moore	ILB	6'1, 251	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	12.0	1.7%	1.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
John Turner	LB	6'1, 217	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
James Onwualu	LB	6'1, 215	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Doug Randolph	ILB	6'2, 240	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)
Michael Deeb	LB	6'2, 242	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Austin Larkin	LB	6'3, 240	RSFr.	NR
Nyles Morgan	LB	6'2, 223	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)

7. For Notre Dame's sake, stars better matter

Even with some losses, the recruiting pedigree of Notre Dame's front seven is impressive: two former five-star recruits, nine former four-stars.

Five-star sophomore Jaylon Smith was one of Notre Dame's best play-makers as a freshman, and while the losses of Nix and Stephon Tuitt are certainly costly, the Irish do still have tackles Sheldon Day and Jarron Jones. End Romeo Okwara had a lovely spring, and the athleticism of youngsters like Isaac Rochell and James Onwualu is exciting.

But as with the receiving corps, the proven production is minimal. Smith is great, and the tackle position is well-stocked, but new play-makers have to emerge. They probably will, but it's not a guarantee.

Sheldon Day. Jonathan Daniel, Getty

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Bennett Jackson	CB				13	52.5	7.3%	5	1	2	3	1	0
KeiVarae Russell	CB	5'11, 190	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	45.5	6.3%	1.5	0	1	8	0	0
Cody Riggs (Florida)	CB	5'9, 190	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	12	40.5	6.5%	6.5	1.5	0	3	0	0
Matthias Farley	CB	5'11, 204	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	37.0	5.2%	1	0	2	3	0	0
Austin Collinsworth	S	6'1, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	29.5	4.1%	0.5	0	3	0	0	0
Eilar Hardy	S	5'11, 201	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	10	20.0	2.8%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Elijah Shumate	S	6'0, 213	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	10	18.5	2.6%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Cole Luke	CB	5'11, 184	So.	4 stars (5.9)	13	11.5	1.6%	0.5	0	0	2	0	0
Lo Wood	CB				11	8.0	1.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Max Redfield	S	6'1, 194	So.	5 stars (6.1)	12	7.0	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Butler	CB	6'1, 181	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Josh Atkinson	CB	5'11, 197	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	5	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Connor Cavalaris	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	NR	3	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Brown	CB	6'1, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Nicky Baratti	S	6'1, 206	So.	3 stars (5.7)
Nick Watkins	DB	6'1, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

8. Not much concern in the secondary

In 2013, safeties Matthias Farley, Austin Collinsworth, Eliar Hardy, and Elijah Shumate combined for one of the best big-play prevention units in the country. Farley's now at cornerback alongside the excellent KeiVarae Russell and Florida transfer Cody Riggs, but that only makes room for five-star sophomore Max Redfield.

I guess corner depth could be better, but it's difficult to find room for worry in the secondary. Russell is a stellar play-maker who could benefit the most if VanGorder is allowed to add a bit more aggression to the defensive recipe, the safeties are a nice mix of steady and explosive, and if the pass rush provides any threat at all up front, this secondary will make a lot of plays.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kyle Brindza	6'1, 236	Sr.	43	41.1	3	14	7	48.8%
Alex Wulfeck			8	32.6	1	3	7	125.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Kyle Brindza	6'1, 236	Sr.	75	62.6	35	0	46.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Kyle Brindza	6'1, 236	Sr.	38-38	13-15	86.7%	7-11	63.6%
Nick Tausch			4-4	0-1	0.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
George Atkinson III	KR			31	25.2	0
Cam McDaniel	KR	5'10, 207	Sr.	8	17.1	0
TJ Jones	PR			14	7.6	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	82
Field Goal Efficiency	58
Punt Return Efficiency	63
Kick Return Efficiency	32
Punt Efficiency	105
Kickoff Efficiency	93
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	36

9. Getting help from your coverage unit

Kyle Brindza averaged a decent 41.1 yards per punt with a decent number of fair catches. Almost half of his kickoffs went for touchbacks, too. But Notre Dame still ranked just 93rd in Kickoff Efficiency (122nd in Opponent Kick Returns) and 105th in Punt Efficiency (85th in Opponent Punt Returns).

If you recruit as well as the Irish, you should have plenty of backup athletes on your coverage units, but there was a breakdown somewhere in 2013, and it was costly in the field position battle. The Irish have to shore up that weakness and find a replacement for kick returner George Atkinson III. That's a lot to ask.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Rice	85
6-Sep	Michigan	32
13-Sep	vs. Purdue	108
27-Sep	at Syracuse	67
4-Oct	Stanford	6
11-Oct	North Carolina	35
18-Oct	at Florida State	1
1-Nov	vs. Navy	65
8-Nov	at Arizona State	21
15-Nov	Northwestern	50
22-Nov	Louisville	16
29-Nov	at USC	9

Five-Year F/+ Rk	20.4% (12)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	6
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	0 / 0.4
TO Luck/Game	-0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	11 (6, 5)

10. We always hear about how hard Notre Dame's schedule is...

...and it's not always true. It's part of the general meme about Notre Dame (along with "Admissions standards make it hard to recruit!") that Irish homers sometimes use and anti-Irish homers sometimes use mockingly against them.

But while Notre Dame's schedule isn't always as difficult as some think it is, this year's slate is meaty. Three projected top-10 opponents (two on the road), four more opponents projected between 11th and 35th, and perhaps most importantly, only one opponent projected worse than 67th. Consistency will be huge for the Irish in 2014, because a down week probably means a loss.

(Unless it happens on September 13. Sorry, Purdue.)

Schedule aside, it's pretty easy to talk yourself into Notre Dame being a top-15 or top-20 team in 2014. The offense has perhaps its highest ceiling yet under Brian Kelly -- no pressure, Mike Denbrock -- and while the defense is undergoing quite a bit of transition, there is some amount of proven talent at every level (defensive tackle, Jaylon Smith, KeiVarae Russell, safeties). Both the offense and defense could be top-20 units.

If Notre Dame is able to come up big at home (going, say, 4-1 against Michigan, Stanford, UNC, Northwestern, and Louisville), then the Irish could very well end up with 10 wins after a bowl game. But even if they only finish with eight or nine again, this team is stocked for potential greatness in 2015, and the odds are pretty good that Act II for Kelly in South Bend will be a memorable one.