The big 2014 Indiana football preview: This is the year (maybe)!

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1. Keep chipping away

In what would be the final loss of the Bill Lynch era in Bloomington, Indiana found itself tied with Penn State, 24-24, late in the third quarter in Landover, Maryland, on November 20, 2010. Penn State's Andrew Dailey blocked a Hoosier punt, however, and James Van Fleet returned it for a touchdown. Three plays later, Penn State picked off a pass, and the rout was on. The final score was 41-24, symbolic of both the hints of promise and ultimate disappointment the Lynch era delivered as a whole.

The Hoosiers won seven games in his first year and went to their first bowl since 1993, but they won just 12 games over the next three seasons. Lynch's time on the job ended like Gerry DiNardo's (3-8 in 2004), Cam Cameron's (5-6 in 2001), and Bill Mallory's (3-8 in 1996) before.

The meaning of last October's win over Penn State, then, was rather obvious. Indiana led the Nittany Lions by four points, 21-17, heading into the fourth quarter. But this time, the fourth-quarter rout went in the other direction. Indiana scored, Penn State failed on a fourth-down attempt, and Indiana scored again. Penn State fumbled the ensuing kickoff, and Indiana scored again. In four minutes, Indiana's lead went from four points to 25. The Hoosiers won, 44-24, to move to 3-2 on the year, and it seemed as if the Hoosiers had turned a corner under third-year coach Kevin Wilson.

Wilson had stripped the program to its foundation and gone about rebuilding the hard way. He built the house with impressive (relatively speaking) recruiting, slapped on a new paint job (literally and figuratively), and three years later, the labor was paying off.

It seemed that way, anyway. In reality, what we think is symbolic often isn't. Following this corner-turning win, the Hoosiers lost five of their next six games and finished 5-7. Reality isn't always as good as the story book.

Wilson now enters his fourth season in Bloomington. Improvement continues apace. After a 1-11 debut, Wilson's Hoosiers have taken clear, definable steps forward for two straight years, but the steps have come on offense. The defense has lagged behind, and a bowl bid in 2014 will hinge on a new defensive coordinator figuring out ways to simply make more stops than the Hoosiers did a year ago. Because wow, was the Indiana defense bad over the last half of the season.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 56
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	Indiana State	N/A	73-35	W	34.0 - 20.9	W
7-Sep	Navy	58	35-41	L	35.0 - 36.9	L
14-Sep	Bowling Green	47	42-10	W	53.6 - 16.3	W
21-Sep	Missouri	14	28-45	L	31.0 - 30.7	W
5-Oct	Penn State	61	44-24	W	33.8 - 20.0	W	12.5
12-Oct	at Michigan State	6	28-42	L	38.4 - 36.6	W	10.3
19-Oct	at Michigan	37	47-63	L	45.2 - 54.9	L	8.7
2-Nov	Minnesota	55	39-42	L	33.8 - 40.0	L	0.0
9-Nov	Illinois	71	52-35	W	42.6 - 32.2	W	2.0
16-Nov	at Wisconsin	19	3-51	L	22.5 - 43.6	L	-5.0
23-Nov	at Ohio State	9	14-42	L	25.4 - 35.3	L	-7.3
30-Nov	Purdue	114	56-36	W	35.1 - 58.2	L	-10.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+14.0%	16	-11.1%	106	-0.6%	84
Points Per Game	38.4	16	38.8	117
Adj. Points Per Game	35.9	17	35.5	110

2. Total defensive collapse

The Indiana defense was by no definition good over the first half of the 2013 season. The Hoosiers allowed 444 rushing yards to Navy, 340 passing yards to Penn State, and 623 total yards to Missouri. In three of six games, they allowed at least 6.1 yards per play. Hell, they allowed 6.1 per play to Michigan State, and before the Spartans really found their offensive groove, no less.

So yeah. Not good. However, the defense made just enough plays to avoid completely wrecking the team's early chances. The offense was strong and capable of keeping up in shootouts. But it had almost no hope of keeping up over the second half of the season.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): Indiana 37.6, Opponent 26.7 (plus-10.9)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 6 games): Opponent 44.0, Indiana 34.1 (minus-9.9)

Indiana allowed 6.7 yards per play to Illinois on November 9. That was the lowest average of the last six games. They allowed 7.4 per play to Minnesota, 7.9 to Purdue (!!), and 8.4 to Ohio State. They allowed 9.1 to Michigan. They allowed 10.4 to Wisconsin. 10.4! Wisconsin gained 676 yards in just 65 plays.

This was just devastatingly awful. Indiana was undefeated when allowing fewer than 41 points in 2013 ... but allowed fewer than 41 points only five times.

To no one's surprise, then, Wilson made a coordinator change in the offseason. Doug Mallory is out, and Brian Knorr is in. Knorr is an interesting choice. A 50-year-old Ph.D at Jim Grobe's University of Underdog Tactics, he served as Grobe's defensive coordinator at both Ohio and Wake Forest and was regarded highly enough to briefly succeed Grobe at Ohio in 2001. He brings to Bloomington a pretty fun 3-4 defense, and he inherits a unit that kind of fits the size profile of your normal 3-4.

His Demon Deacons ranked 44th in Def. F/+ last year, and let's just say that the No. 44 defense combined with Indiana's offense would win quite a few games. Baby steps first, though.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.36	6	IsoPPP+	128.3	1
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.0%	45	Succ. Rt. +	106.5	41
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.9	12	Def. FP+	105.4	14
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	13	Redzone S&P+	103.9	43
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.3		ACTUAL	20	+1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	10	16	41	3
RUSHING	30	9	35	6
PASSING	17	21	46	11
Standard Downs		14	61	1
Passing Downs		17	19	19

Q1 Rk	45	1st Down Rk	21
Q2 Rk	33	2nd Down Rk	24
Q3 Rk	14	3rd Down Rk	12
Q4 Rk	3

3. The big plays were enormous

But seriously, it won't take much defense to make Indiana a noteworthy team. Wilson, one of the best, most innovative offensive coordinators in football during his stints at Northwestern and Oklahoma, has figured out what buttons to push on that side of the ball, and without the type of blue-chip recruits he had at his disposal in Norman.

Indiana ranked 16th in overall Off. F/+ in 2013; the Hoosiers were ninth in Rushing S&P+ and 21st in Passing S&P+, and while efficiency was still an issue -- one that could work itself out thanks to the most experienced line in college football -- big plays constantly bailed them out. Only three teams broke off more 30-yard gains than the Hoosiers' 42: Baylor (56), Auburn (45), and Miami (44). Indiana had more 30-, 40-, and 50-yard gains than Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State, and without the luxury of postseason games. This team was dynamite when it created open-field opportunities, and Wilson is pretty good at figuring out how to create those exact opportunities.

Indiana ranked first in IsoPPP+ (an opponent-adjusted measure designed to look at the magnitude of a team's successful plays) but only 41st in Success Rate+ (opponent-adjusted efficiency). If the Hoosiers can figure out how to stay on schedule just a little bit better, the return of running back Tevin Coleman, receivers Shane Wynn and Nick Stoner, and others, could make for top-10 offensive output.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Nate Sudfeld	6'5, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	194	322	2523	21	9	60.2%	15	4.5%	7.2
Tre Roberson	6'0, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	83	138	1128	15	4	60.1%	1	0.7%	8.0
Cameron Coffman				2	9	29	0	1	22.2%	1	10.0%	2.5
Zander Diamont	6'1, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Tevin Coleman	RB	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	131	958	12	7.3	12.0	35.9%
Stephen Houston	RB				112	753	5	6.7	7.7	45.5%
Tre Roberson	QB	6'0, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	84	433	5	5.2	3.8	46.4%
D'Angelo Roberts	RB	5'10, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	52	232	0	4.5	3.9	40.4%
Nate Sudfeld	QB	6'5, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	23	73	1	3.2	1.7	39.1%
Anthony Davis	RB	5'8, 203	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	65	0	6.5	2.2	70.0%
Andrew Wilson	RB	5'11, 222	So.	NR	8	45	1	5.6	6.8	37.5%
Laray Smith	RB	6'0, 188	So.	3 stars (5.5)	4	6	0	1.5	1.3	50.0%
Shane Wynn	WR	5'7, 170	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	4	12	1	3.0	6.3	25.0%
Tommy Mister	RB	6'0, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

4. Tevin Coleman is awesome

First things first: Indiana's receiving corps goes into 2014 fresh off of a facelift. Four of the top five targets are gone, including second-round draft pick Cody Latimer. Latimer and Kofi Hughes combined for 16.5 targets per game and 9.3 yards per target and gave Indiana's awkward two-headed QB arrangement an opportunity to succeed. Plus, tight end Ted Bolser gave quarterbacks Nate Sudfeld and Tre Roberson a decent underneath option.

It's hard to worry too much about the skill positions, however. First of all, they're led by Wilson and offensive coordinator Kevin Johns. Wilson has been figuring out unique ways to move the ball for more than a decade now. Beyond that, receiver Shane Wynn is a high-efficiency jitterbug, and the receiving corps gets supplemented by quite a few exciting youngsters, including Dominique Booth, a four-star in-state receiver.

But the primary reason I can't worry too much about Indiana's offense is Tevin Coleman. Highlight Yards basically look at a runner's explosiveness once he reaches the second level of a defense. Combining that with Opportunity Rate (the frequency with which you reach said second level), we get a pretty good idea for what kind of back you are. Coleman's 35.9 percent Opportunity Rate was nothing special, but no one in the country was more explosive.

Of the 199 FBS players with at least 100 carries in 2013, only seven averaged 8.0 highlight yards per opportunity or greater. Boston College's Andre Williams and Missouri's Henry Josey averaged 8.0, Maryland's C.J. Brown and Ohio State's Braxton Miller averaged 8.4, West Virginia's Dreamius Smith and UL-Lafayette's Elijah McGuire averaged 8.6 ... and Tevin Coleman averaged 12.0. His average was 40 percent better than the second best. He had 14 carries of at least 20 yards (only 12 players had more), and he had eight of at least 40 (most in the country). He is unlit dynamite every play he's on the field.

With Baylor's Lache Seastrunk now in the pros, Coleman might be the nation's best angle buster. Safeties think they have the angle to catch him and bring him down. They do not.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Cody Latimer	WR				110	72	1096	65.5%	24.2%	62.1%	10.0	231	10.8	158.7
Kofi Hughes	WR				88	47	739	53.4%	19.3%	58.7%	8.4	111	8.2	107.0
Shane Wynn	WR	5'7, 170	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	65	46	633	70.8%	14.3%	68.2%	9.7	101	9.8	91.7
Ted Bolser	TE				54	35	320	64.8%	11.9%	47.6%	5.9	-102	6.5	46.3
Duwyce Wilson	WR				30	15	167	50.0%	6.6%	54.5%	5.6	-41	4.3	24.2
Nick Stoner	WR	6'1, 182	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	26	12	226	46.2%	5.7%	40.0%	8.7	52	6.7	32.7
Isaiah Roundtree	WR	5'11, 195	Sr.	NR	23	14	136	60.9%	5.1%	66.7%	5.9	-38	5.1	19.7
Tevin Coleman	RB	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	23	19	193	82.6%	5.1%	52.4%	8.4	-11	6.9	28.0
Stephen Houston	RB				20	11	113	55.0%	4.4%	76.9%	5.7	-32	4.2	16.4
D'Angelo Roberts	RB	5'10, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	7	57	58.3%	2.6%	33.3%	4.8	-32	0.7	8.3
Anthony Corsaro	TE	6'1, 252	Jr.	NR	4	1	0	25.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0	-22	0.0	0.0
Kevin Davis	WR	5'11, 190	So.	3 stars (5.7)
Danny Friend	TE	6'5, 255	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Isaac Griffith	WR	6'0, 194	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Dominique Booth	WR	6'1, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jordan Fuchs	TE	6'6, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Simmie Cobbs	WR	6'4, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.5	3.03	2.43	42.0%	64.7%	20.9%	143.5	2.4%	5.3%
Rank	69	51	122	36	83	86	24	12	44

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Bernard Taylor	LG	6'2, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	25
Jason Spriggs	LT	6'7, 297	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	24
Collin Rahrig	C	6'2, 285	Sr.	NR	23
Peyton Eckert	RT	6'6, 310	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	18
Ralston Evans	RT	6'4, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12
Dan Feeney	RG	6'4, 310	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12
Jake Reed	RG	6'4, 291	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	6
David Kaminski	RG	6'4, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	5
Jacob Bailey	RG	6'5, 301	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3
Cody Evers	LG				2
Wes Rogers	C	6'4, 293	So.	3 stars (5.6)	2
Pete Bachman	LT				0
Dimitric Camiel	RT	6'7, 304	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
DeAndre Herron	OL	6'5, 330	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tim Gardner	OL	6'5, 320	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Delroy Baker	OL	6'6, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

5. Six returning starters

From a numbers perspective, Tre Roberson was a more successful quarterback than Nate Sudfeld. Their interception and completion rates were almost identical, but Roberson took almost no sacks and did more with his completions (13.6 yards per completion) than Sudfeld (13.0). Plus, Roberson is an efficient, if not particularly explosive, runner who can potentially either deflect attention for Coleman or take advantage of it.

Still, Sudfeld took more snaps behind center in 2013, and spring football gave no indication that one has permanently surpassed the other. Regardless, if Coleman isn't either quarterback's best friend in 2014, it might be the line. Because for all intents and purposes, the line returns six starters. Both tackle Peyton Eckert (back) and Dan Feeney (foot), 2012 starters, missed all of 2013 with injuries. That gave the Hoosiers a younger-than-expected front five, and while its pass protection numbers were solid (mostly because of Roberson), its run-blocking numbers left something to be desired.

To the extent that experience can fix the run issues, Indiana's line could improve dramatically. The Hoosiers now return 10 players with starting experience and six players with at least 12 career starts. They begin the season with more career starts up front (130) than most teams have at the end of a season. If they can help to create more opportunities for Coleman and company, this offense won't miss Latimer and Hughes much at all.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	80	IsoPPP+	97.0	80
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.4%	117	Succ. Rt. +	92.7	90
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.1	45	Off. FP+	102.5	32
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	109	Redzone S&P+	107.7	34
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.9		ACTUAL	17.0	-7.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	123	94	90	112
RUSHING	117	75	75	75
PASSING	120	100	98	123
Standard Downs		91	87	67
Passing Downs		91	80	106

Q1 Rk	79	1st Down Rk	91
Q2 Rk	77	2nd Down Rk	103
Q3 Rk	95	3rd Down Rk	91
Q4 Rk	105

6. Bending with less breaking

Knorr's 2013 Wake Forest defense was good against the run and sketchy against the pass; perhaps the biggest draw for Wilson, however, was the fact that Wake was ninth in IsoPPP+, excelling as a bend-don't-break unit. That identity brings its own set of liabilities to the table, but Indiana's defense broke far too much last year, especially through the air, and one could see why Wilson might be drawn to a coach with solid big-play prevention tactics.

Indiana really wanted to be aggressive in 2013 but just didn't have the personnel for it. We'll see what Knorr can do with what is now a wonderfully experienced (if still lacking) unit.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.4	3.13	3.35	47.2%	64.8%	16.0%	81.5	3.3%	8.6%
Rank	49	92	70	120	50	101	100	99	29

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Bobby Richardson	DE	6'3, 288	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	29.5	4.0%	3.5	0.0	0	3	0	0
John Laihinen	DE				12	18.5	2.5%	7.0	4.5	0	0	0	0
Zack Shaw	DE	6'3, 264	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	12	18.5	2.5%	4.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Ralph Green III	DT	6'5, 325	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	18.5	2.5%	4.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
Darius Latham	DT	6'5, 325	So.	4 stars (5.8)	12	15.0	2.0%	3.0	2.0	0	3	0	0
Ryan Phillis	DE				12	13.5	1.8%	2.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Adarius Rayner	DT	6'2, 309	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	8.0	1.1%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
David Kenney	DE	6'2, 265	So.	4 stars (5.8)	7	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Shawn Heffern	DE	6'6, 264	So.	3 stars (5.5)	7	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Todd	DT				4	1.5	0.2%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Christopher Cormier	DT	6'2, 315	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Patrick Dougherty	DT	6'5, 291	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Mike Barwick, Jr.	DT	6'0, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. Size? Check

When a team moves from a 4-3 base defense to a 3-4, the first thing we tend to look at is the size of the linemen. Are they big enough to occupy blockers and free up linebackers to make plays?

While we don't yet know if Indiana has the requisite play-making linebackers, the Hoosiers certainly have the size up front, especially after everybody packed on a few pounds in the offseason. The top seven returnees from last year average 6'4, 291; the top three returning tackles average 6'4, 320. There's beef here.

And at the very least, there are options at linebacker. If we're including DE-turned-OLB Nick Mangieri as a linebacker, last year's top seven tacklers all return. Only Mangieri and David Cooper had more than 3.5 tackles for loss, and for all we know, any of three three-star freshmen could quickly work into the rotation, but there are at least options.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
David Cooper	ILB	6'1, 237	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	68.5	9.2%	6.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
T.J. Simmons	ILB	6'0, 228	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	55.0	7.4%	3.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Forisse Hardin	OLB	6'1, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	49.0	6.6%	3.5	0.0	0	1	3	1
Marcus Oliver	ILB	6'1, 238	So.	3 stars (5.6)	11	29.0	3.9%	2.5	0.0	0	0	2	0
Clyde Newton	OLB	6'1, 230	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	25.5	3.4%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Nick Mangieri	OLB	6'5, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	20.5	2.8%	6.0	3.0	1	5	1	0
Steven Funderburk	OLB	6'3, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	8	16.0	2.1%	0.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
Jacarri Alexander	OLB				12	9.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jake Michalek	ILB				12	8.5	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Griffen Dahlstrom	OLB				4	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Kennedy	LB	6'3, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Tegray Scales	LB	6'0, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Greg Gooch	LB	6'2, 245	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Dameon Willis	LB	6'1, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Greg Heban	S				12	69.0	9.3%	1.5	0	3	4	1	0
Mark Murphy	S	6'2, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	67.5	9.1%	0.5	0	1	1	1	0
Tim Bennett	CB	5'9, 186	Sr.	NR	12	67.0	9.0%	3.5	0	1	20	0	1
Michael Hunter	CB	6'1, 194	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	38.0	5.1%	3	0	1	7	1	0
Antonio Allen	S	5'10, 205	So.	4 stars (5.8)	7	29.5	4.0%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Thompson	CB				11	15.0	2.0%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Kenny Mullen	CB	5'10, 183	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	7.0	0.9%	1	1	0	2	0	0
Jake Zupancic	S				7	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brian Williams	CB				2	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Grubbe	S	5'11, 205	Sr.	NR
Rashard Fant	CB	5'10, 162	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Chase Dutra	S	6'1, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Noel Padmore	CB	5'11, 172	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Kris Smith	S	6'2, 211	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Will Dawkins	DB	5'11, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tony Fields	DB	5'11, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Donovan Clark	DB	5'10, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

8. All or nothing

Good sign: cornerback Tim Bennett was first in the country with 21 passes defensed last season. He only intercepted one pass while breaking up 20, but he still got his hands on more passes than any other defender in the country.

Bad sign: Bennett also made 67.0 tackles, an obscenely high number for a cornerback that suggests that either a) he was tremendous in run support or b) his man was also catching a lot of passes. That Bennett had 3.5 tackles for loss is encouraging when it comes to the former, but knowing what we know about Indiana's pass defense, there was plenty of the latter at play as well. Almost no defense gave up a higher frequency of big pass plays than Indiana, and that takes the shine off of Bennett's prolific break-up abilities.

Bennett and Michael Hunter both return; again, they've at least proven aggressive, if prone to breakdowns. But for the first time, Indiana might actually have a full two-deep of players worthy of playing time in the back. Four of last year's top five return, including four-star sophomore Antonio Allen, and they are joined by four-star redshirt freshman Rashard Fant, two high-three-star redshirt freshmen, and three high-three-star true freshmen.

Youth doesn't tend to solve breakdown issues, but there is more athleticism on this defense, top to bottom, than has been the case at any point in the Wilson era. That's something.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Erich Toth	6'3, 206	Jr.	52	40.6	3	18	18	69.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Mitch Ewald			77	63.3	38	3	49.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Mitch Ewald			56-56	8-8	100.0%	1-3	33.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Shane Wynn	KR	5'7, 170	Sr.	18	23.1	0
Stephen Houston	KR			13	21.8	0
Shane Wynn	PR	5'7, 170	Sr.	7	14.0	1
Mitchell Paige	PR	5'7, 180	So.	3	10.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	84
Field Goal Efficiency	66
Punt Return Efficiency	96
Kick Return Efficiency	72
Punt Efficiency	106
Kickoff Efficiency	12
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	7

9. Great field position despite special teams

Despite all the big plays allowed on defense, Indiana was one of the Big Ten's best field position teams. In conference play, the Hoosiers' average drive started at the 31.5, and opponents' average drive started at the 26.9. The plus-4.6 yard margin was third in the conference behind Ohio State (plus-7.3) and Michigan State (6.3). And to be sure, decent kick returns from Shane Wynn and strong kickoffs and kick coverage were contributors in this regard. (Lord knows there were a lot of kickoffs in Indiana games.)

Still, Indiana stunk at punt coverage and was inconsistent at punt returns; more steadiness here could have meant another yard or two in field position margin ... and perhaps another win or two as well.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Indiana State	NR
13-Sep	at Bowling Green	52
20-Sep	at Missouri	22
27-Sep	Maryland	51
4-Oct	North Texas	72
11-Oct	at Iowa	34
18-Oct	Michigan State	13
1-Nov	at Michigan	32
8-Nov	Penn State	37
15-Nov	at Rutgers	78
22-Nov	at Ohio State	4
29-Nov	Purdue	108

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-9.7% (87)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	42
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / 6.6
TO Luck/Game	-4.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (8, 9)

10. Another step forward

Despite the horrendous defense, Indiana still needed some woeful turnovers luck to end up under .500. The Hoosiers lost nearly four points per game to the turnovers fairy in a season that saw them go 0-2 in games decided by one possession. They still ranked 56th overall, and if the defense improves, this could quite easily turn into a not only a top-45 team, but a top-45 team that actually has a little luck on its side.

With this schedule, a top-45 team could go 5-1 at home and between 0-6 and 2-4 on the road. Regardless, either beat Michigan State at home or take down Bowling Green or Rutgers on the road, and the Hoosiers are likely bowling for just the second time in a decade.

The series of tough road games probably precludes a great record even if the Hoosiers improve by a solid amount, but the bottom line is that Indiana indeed appears set to improve, both in overall quality and in record, for the third straight year. Even if the offense regresses a bit with a receiving corps reset (and honestly, I don't expect that to happen to any major degree), the defense should improve more, simply from a "can't get worse" perspective.

Wilson's building something pretty impressive in Bloomington. Last year wasn't quite the breakthrough it appeared it might become, but the Hoosiers are moving forward and should again in 2014.