The big 2014 Maryland football preview: Healthy Terps are dangerous Terps

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1. An ode to randomness

Combined with injuries in other areas and a wealth of transfers -- head coach Randy Edsall didn't really make many friends in his first 12 months in College Park -- Maryland was incredibly, ridiculously young last season. And the evidence is clear in the players listed below. There are three sophomore quarterbacks with experience. The three leading returning running backs are sophomores. The three leading returning receivers are sophomores. Four of the six offensive linemen with starting experience are either sophomores or juniors. The top four returning defensive linemen are either sophomores or juniors. The top four returning linebackers are juniors. The top three returning safeties are either sophomores or juniors. It's staggering.

Through this lens, one fact becomes rather incredible: Maryland actually improved in 2012.

Last year's Maryland preview was suitably focused on injuries. Any time you finish the season with a true freshman linebacker at quarterback, chances are good that health will be the overriding theme. That Maryland managed to improve even slightly in 2012 was a positive sign for the future, especially considering that, in theory, injuries luck would probably be more on the Terps' side the following season.

And technically it was. Quarterback C.J. Brown did miss another couple of games, but he was around to finish the season. The lines remained mostly intact. It could have been worse.

But the Terps' were still pretty snake-bitten. They boasted two five-star receivers, and both were lost for the season midway through. They were still forced to dip into the third string for healthy linebackers (granted, they were playing linebacker, not quarterback, this time). They still lost a potential starting cornerback before the season began. And while we're at it, they still saw their starting running back get suspended for the season. Karma still didn't smile on College Park.

In terms of injuries, the last two years have been bad enough that I actually found myself wondering if Maryland is doing something wrong from a strength and conditioning perspective. There's no evidence of that, and no evidence of some sort of mineral in the tap water that weakens bones and ACLs. All we know is Maryland's been on the negative side of the injuries line for two straight years, and in theory -- in theory! -- it doesn't always remain that way.

We also know that Maryland figured out a way to improve again despite this.

2. In an injury-free utopia...

...Maryland could actually be very good this year. Ignore everything you know about recent injuries, and see what the Terrapins return. A well-seasoned dual-threat quarterback. Starting running backs from both 2012 and 2013. The aforementioned five-star receivers (Stefon Diggs and Deon Long), plus the three exciting receivers who thrived in their absence. Five players with starting experience on a solid offensive line. The top five tacklers on a solid defensive line. Eight of last year's top 10 linebackers. Five of last year's top six defensive backs, plus the aforementioned 2012 starter (Jeremiah Johnson). A smattering of well-touted freshmen and redshirt freshmen. Basically everybody from a top-20 special teams unit.

From a pure athleticism-and-potential standpoint, few teams in Maryland's new conference boast more talent than the Terps. And if the injury dice ever fall in favor of Randy Edsall's squad, they're a candidate for a pretty impressive breakthrough. If.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 63
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Florida International	125	43-10	W	33.4 - 19.2	W
7-Sep	Old Dominion	N/A	47-10	W	33.0 - 19.8	W
14-Sep	Connecticut	93	32-21	W	33.8 - 27.1	W
21-Sep	vs. West Virginia	76	37-0	W	19.7 - 13.2	W
5-Oct	at Florida State	1	0-63	L	21.3 - 27.7	L	6.8
12-Oct	Virginia	79	27-26	W	38.9 - 37.6	W	4.2
19-Oct	at Wake Forest	81	10-34	L	29.6 - 37.7	L	0.0
26-Oct	Clemson	16	27-40	L	29.1 - 26.1	W	-0.7
9-Nov	Syracuse	75	3-20	L	15.8 - 26.6	L	-4.2
16-Nov	at Virginia Tech	27	27-24	W	31.7 - 23.3	W	-1.2
23-Nov	Boston College	65	26-29	L	17.3 - 29.3	L	-3.9
30-Nov	at N.C. State	92	41-21	W	33.8 - 24.9	W	-0.5
27-Dec	vs. Marshall	52	20-31	L	34.0 - 26.1	W	0.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-3.6%	75	-0.3%	64	+2.6%	17
Points Per Game	26.2	84	25.3	56
Adj. Points Per Game	28.6	63	26.1	51

3. Fade and rally

For a while, it appeared as if the breakthrough could come in 2013. Maryland began the season 4-0, and while the victims of that run were far from spectacular, the Terps were treating them like bad teams. They won their first four games by an average score of 40-10, and after a ritual slaughter at Florida State (not the only one the Seminoles dished out in 2013), they survived some terrible fumbles luck against Virginia (Maryland recovered zero of the game's four fumbles) to survive.

But against Wake Forest, Deon Long broke his tibia and fibula and Stefon Diggs broke his fibula (again, something in the water in College Park...), and a mini-collapse began. The Terps fell to 5-4. But they rallied.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Maryland 30.0, Opponent 19.8 (plus-10.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Opponent 31.1, Maryland 26.9 (minus-4.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Maryland 29.2, Opponent 25.9 (plus-3.3)

Maryland's defense dominated Virginia Tech, and C.J. Brown had a great rushing day against a stout Tech defense, and the Terps upset the Hokies in Blacksburg. They handled a bad NC State team in Raleigh as well and finished 7-5. The bowl game against Marshall wasn't particularly pleasant, but they lost more because Marshall played great. And besides, finishing 7-6 with a nowhere-near-full-strength squad was once again a sign of improvement.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.37	5	IsoPPP+	111.9	17
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.9%	96	Succ. Rt. +	102.5	50
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.1	93	Def. FP+	96.4	94
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	90	Redzone S&P+	86.4	107
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	27.6		ACTUAL	28	+0.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	77	36	51	52
RUSHING	84	39	42	70
PASSING	49	33	63	39
Standard Downs		31	36	22
Passing Downs		53	80	10

Q1 Rk	33	1st Down Rk	30
Q2 Rk	45	2nd Down Rk	55
Q3 Rk	50	3rd Down Rk	77
Q4 Rk	102

4. Start and finish

Even despite the unexpected, tibia-related turnover in the receiving corps, Maryland was able to create quite a few big plays in 2013. Diggs and Long combined to average 16.3 yards per catch, and in their absence, Levern Jacobs, Nigel King, and Amba Etta-Tawo combined to average a healthy 14.3. Both Brandon Ross and Albert Reid showed solid next-level explosiveness. C.J. Brown knew what to do in the open field as well. The ingredients for a great offense were very much on display.

The problem was that Maryland was pretty awful at both starting and finishing drives. The Terps' explosiveness was muted by mediocre efficiency numbers and far too many three-and-outs, and despite strong running, a dual-threat at quarterback, and a decent line, the Terps had one of the worst red zone offenses in the country. Brad Craddock was asked to attempt 17 field goals of under 40 yards, and Maryland averaged only 3.9 points per trip inside the opponent's 40. That's not going to cut it.

That so much talent returns is exciting; it's only going to matter if the Terps start and finish better.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
C.J. Brown	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	166	282	2242	13	7	58.9%	22	7.2%	6.8
Perry Hills (2012)	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	97	169	1336	8	7	57.4%	24	12.4%	6.0
Caleb Rowe	6'3, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	63	130	984	5	3	48.5%	6	4.4%	6.9
Shane Cockerille	6'2, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Will Ulmer	6'0, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Brandon Ross	RB	5'10, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	166	776	4	4.7	5.2	39.2%
C.J. Brown	QB	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	118	736	12	6.2	8.4	37.3%
Wes Brown (2012)	RB	6'0, 200	So.	4 stars (5.8)	90	382	2	4.2	3.3	N/A
Albert Reid	RB	5'9, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	70	294	2	4.2	6.4	25.7%
Jacquille Veii	RB	5'9, 181	So.	2 stars (5.4)	39	142	0	3.6	4.4	35.9%
Caleb Rowe	QB	6'3, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	14	74	0	5.3	4.0	42.9%
Kenneth Goins Jr.	FB	5'9, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	9	48	0	5.3	1.7	55.6%
Levern Jacobs	WR	5'11, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	7	19	0	2.7	5.9	42.9%
Stefon Diggs	WR	6'0, 195	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	7	45	0	6.4	4.4	71.4%
Ricardo Young	QB				4	7	0	1.8	1.9	25.0%

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Levern Jacobs	WR	5'11, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	71	46	640	64.8%	18.2%	54.4%	9.0	85	9.5	88.7
Nigel King	WR	6'3, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	59	33	450	55.9%	15.1%	41.9%	7.6	20	6.2	62.3
Stefon Diggs	WR	6'0, 195	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	56	34	587	60.7%	14.3%	67.4%	10.5	163	11.4	81.3
Amba Etta-Tawo	WR	6'1, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	55	31	500	56.4%	14.1%	51.2%	9.1	98	8.8	69.3
Deon Long	WR	6'0, 195	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	55	32	489	58.2%	14.1%	48.9%	8.9	81	8.8	67.8
Dave Stinebaugh	TE				32	15	204	46.9%	8.2%	56.5%	6.4	-12	5.9	28.3
Brandon Ross	RB	5'10, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	26	18	173	69.2%	6.6%	30.4%	6.7	-37	5.9	24.0
Malcolm Culmer	WR	5'11, 190	So.	2 stars (5.4)	13	5	59	38.5%	3.3%	57.1%	4.5	-22	5.2	8.2
Albert Reid	RB	5'9, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	5	57	50.0%	2.6%	42.9%	5.7	-12	7.1	7.9
Kenneth Goins Jr.	FB	5'9, 225	So.	2 stars (5.4)	8	4	56	50.0%	2.0%	100.0%	7.0	1	3.7	7.8
Jacquille Veii	RB	5'9, 181	So.	2 stars (5.4)	6	5	18	83.3%	1.5%	100.0%	3.0	-36	1.4	2.5
Daniel Adams	WR	6'2, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Marcus Leak	WR	6'0, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Andrew Isaacs	TE	6'2, 250	So.	4 stars (5.8)
P.J. Gallo	TE	6'2, 250	So.	3 stars (5.5)
DeAndre Lane	WR	5'7, 165	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Taivon Jacobs	WR	5'9, 155	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Juwann Winfree	WR	6'2, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

5. Simply loaded out wide

I use "Injuries hurt in the present tense but help in the future tense" enough in these previews to qualify it for cliché status. But I say it because it's frequently true. Take, for instance, Maryland's receiving corps. Thanks to injuries, it now runs five-deep. Diggs and Long were as good as advertised over the first half of the season, averaging 10.5 and 8.9 yards per target, respectively. Their injuries briefly hamstrung the offense, as did Brown's, but new guys began to step up. Nigel King caught 10 passes for 141 yards against Clemson and Wake Forest. Levern Jacobs caught eight for 158 against Clemson and seven for 100 against Marshall. And in the final five games, Amba Etta-Tawo caught 20 for 387 yards.

So now Maryland returns five players who were targeted between 55 and 71 times in 2013; four of the five averaged at least 8.9 yards per target. Catch rates do need to improve -- only one of the five caught better than 61 percent of his targets last year -- and we'll see what happens with ball distribution, but the potential here is off the charts, especially considering that junior Marcus Leak surged in the spring as well.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	105.7	2.53	3.31	37.2%	61.5%	25.2%	98.6	3.5%	9.6%
Rank	44	117	56	86	100	123	70	35	101

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
De'Onte Arnett	LG				23
Sal Conaboy	C	6'3, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	22
Mike Madaras	LT				16
Ryan Doyle	LT	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13
Michael Dunn	RT	6'5, 295	So.	NR	13
Andrew Zeller	RG	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	7
Moise Larose	LT	6'6, 305	So.	3 stars (5.5)	1
G.T. Harraka	RG				0
Nick Klemm	RT				0
Silvano Altamirano	LG	6'2, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Evan Mulrooney	LG	6'4, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Jake Wheeler	RT	6'7, 305	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Stephen Grommer	C	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
JuJuan Dulaney	RG	6'2, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Damian Prince	OL	6'5, 300	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
Derwin Gray	LT	6'5, 300	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)

6. Costly glitches

Maryland started a mostly new line in 2013 -- it had a modest 30 career starts heading into the season -- and, all things considered (inexperience, wretched 2012 performance), put up decent numbers. Considering brief injury troubles at quarterback and two sophomores and a freshman at running back, the line could certainly have done worse than ranking 44th in Adj. Line Yards and 70th in Adj. Sack Rate.

With better experience this time around (55 career starts, not including the one from Moise Larose, who's suspended for the year), along with the potential addition of a pair of stud freshmen, one can expect the line to improve a bit on these numbers.

That said, these numbers were perhaps inflated a bit. Brown's passing-downs scrambles boosted the passing downs rushing numbers, and some relatively quick passing on standard downs helped the sack rates. The line had the tendency to let defenders in the backfield at inopportune times. Mobile quarterbacks tend to have higher sack rates, but a 9.6 percent sack rate on passing downs is way too high. Young running backs tend to dance a bit too much make mistakes in the backfield, but Maryland's 25.2 percent stuff rate (run stops behind the line) was almost the worst in the country. Plus, the short-yardage numbers were poor as well. Experienced skill position personnel will help these numbers a bit, but the line needs to be less error-prone for the offense to reach what really is vast potential.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	49	IsoPPP+	102.6	48
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.3%	33	Succ. Rt. +	98.8	58
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.2	42	Off. FP+	99.5	68
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	61	Redzone S&P+	104.6	41
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.1		ACTUAL	21.0	+2.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	44	49	58	63
RUSHING	46	42	39	81
PASSING	57	64	83	45
Standard Downs		35	52	24
Passing Downs		84	70	105

Q1 Rk	33	1st Down Rk	54
Q2 Rk	61	2nd Down Rk	100
Q3 Rk	66	3rd Down Rk	38
Q4 Rk	110

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.8	2.80	2.04	36.3%	51.3%	19.7%	102.1	5.5%	7.8%
Rank	35	43	2	36	3	54	59	41	41

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Andre Monroe	DE	5'11, 275	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	33.5	4.2%	17.0	9.5	0	1	2	0
Quinton Jefferson	DE	6'3, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	33.0	4.1%	7.5	3.0	0	0	1	0
Darius Kilgo	NT	6'3, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	26.5	3.3%	6.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Keith Bowers	NT	6'1, 275	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	22.0	2.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Roman Braglio	DE	6'2, 265	So.	3 stars (5.6)	10	5.0	0.6%	3.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Zeke Riser	DE				9	4.0	0.5%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Walker	DE				4	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nate Clarke	NT	6'3, 305	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	8	2.0	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Kingsley Opara	DE	6'3, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Malik Jones	DE	6'4, 260	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Chandler Burkett	DE	6'3, 230	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cole Farrand	ILB	6'3, 245	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	61.5	7.7%	4.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Matt Robinson	OLB	6'3, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	58.0	7.3%	10.0	0.5	0	4	1	0
L.A. Goree	ILB	6'2, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	57.5	7.2%	4.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Marcus Whitfield	OLB				13	38.5	4.8%	15.5	9.0	0	3	2	0
Alex Twine	OLB	6'0, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	37.5	4.7%	2.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Abner Logan	ILB	6'1, 235	So.	4 stars (5.8)	12	29.5	3.7%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Shawn Petty	ILB				13	18.5	2.3%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil	OLB	6'2, 255	Sr.	NR	6	13.0	1.6%	3.5	3.0	1	0	0	0
Yannick Ngakoue	OLB	6'2, 250	So.	4 stars (5.9)	13	8.0	1.0%	4.5	2.0	1	0	1	0
Cavon Walker	OLB	6'2, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13	5.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Clarence Murphy	OLB	6'2, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)
Avery Thompson	OLB	6'2, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Brock Dean	ILB	6'0, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Jalen Brooks	ILB	6'1, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jermaine Carter, Jr.	ILB	6'0, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jesse Aniebonam	LB	6'5, 240	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Tyler Burke	LB	6'4, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. A stout front seven

The Maryland defense regressed a bit in 2013, from 50th in Def. F/+ to 64th, but that was perhaps to be expected. The Terps had to replace five front-seven starters who had combined for 46 tackles for loss, 23.5 sacks, and 15 passes defensed in 2012, and when combined with unexpected shuffling at linebacker (eight players averaged at least one tackle per game, and only two of them played all 13 games), regression was almost inevitable.

That said, the slip was minor. The defense was still decent, and the front seven still made plays. Andre Monroe came back after missing 2012 and spent a good portion of the season in the backfield. Darius Kilgo proved an agile, interesting force at nose tackle. And outside linebackers Matt Robinson and Marcus Whitfield combined for 26 tackles for loss.

Maryland replaced play-makers with play-makers, and while Whitfield is gone, virtually everybody esle of consequence returns, and despite Abner Logan's suspension, there is a lot of high-profile younger talent (Yannick Ngakoue, Nate Clark, Jesse Aniebonam, Roman Braglio) that could make an impact. The run defense was a strength last year (especially in short-yardage situations) and should be again.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Sean Davis	S	6'1, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	83.0	10.4%	1.5	0.5	2	3	1	0
William Likely	CB	5'7, 175	So.	4 stars (5.8)	13	60.5	7.6%	4.5	0	1	6	0	0
Isaac Goins	CB				13	52.5	6.6%	1	1	2	4	0	0
Anthony Nixon	S	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	49.0	6.1%	3	0	0	0	0	0
Jeremiah Johnson (2012)	CB	5'11, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	37.5	5.7%	5	1.5	0	8	1	0
A.J. Hendy	S	6'0, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	26.0	3.3%	1	0	1	2	0	0
Alvin Hill	CB	5'11, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	19.0	2.4%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Dexter McDougle	CB				4	13.5	1.7%	0	0	3	2	0	0
Zach Dancel	S	6'0, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.1)	12	7.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jarrett Ross	CB	5'9, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	6.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Washington	CB	5'8, 180	Sr.	NR
Undray Clark	CB	5'9, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Milan Collins	S	6'1, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Elvis Dennah	S	6'2, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)

8. A Likely star

The big issue for Maryland's defense in 2013 came through the air. If the Terps couldn't get pressure on the quarterback (or even if they could), there were big plays for the taking.

When you look at the personnel, this makes sense. Corners Dexter McDougle (shoulder) and Jeremiah Johnson (two), the leading tacklers in the secondary a year earlier, combined to play six games with a shoulder injury and fractured toe, respectively. That thrust then-freshman William Likely into the forefront. Plus, both starting safeties were sophomores. A young secondary is always going to be prone to breakdowns; Maryland's sure was.

Youth turns into experience, and with Johnson's return there are now three juniors and two seniors among Maryland's top six returnees.

The biggest star might be a sophomore, though. Likely struggled at times but showed glimpses of his four-star potential. He made 4.5 tackles for loss, a good number for any cornerback, much less a small freshman. Plus, he defensed a team-leading seven passes.

The pass defense will still probably be behind the run defense, but the breakdowns should diminish. And for whatever it's worth (probably not much), the secondary was the best unit in the spring game.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Nathan Renfro	6'1, 205	Jr.	75	40.8	9	20	18	50.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Brad Craddock	6'0, 180	Jr.	69	61.5	12	1	17.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Brad Craddock	6'0, 180	Jr.	37-38	16-17	94.1%	5-8	62.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
William Likely	KR	5'7, 175	So.	28	26.0	0
Stefon Diggs	KR	6'0, 195	Jr.	12	23.4	0
William Likely	PR	5'7, 175	So.	16	12.8	1
Stefon Diggs	PR	6'0, 195	Jr.	2	-0.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	17
Field Goal Efficiency	43
Punt Return Efficiency	99
Kick Return Efficiency	6
Punt Efficiency	39
Kickoff Efficiency	24
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	112

9. Great unit! Now cut down on the field goal attempts

Likely was also an immediate hit on special teams. His emergence will allow Maryland to use Stefon Diggs more sparingly in the return game, which can't be a bad thing.

Plus, there's not a lot of reason to think that an A+ coverage unit -- notice that Nathan Renfro's punting average and Brad Craddock's touchback rate on kickoffs were both pretty mediocre; then note that Maryland was top-40 in both kick and punt efficiency -- will regress to any major degree.

Throw in Craddock's return as place-kicker, and you've got a lovely unit overall. And if Craddock doesn't have to kick as many short field goals, Maryland's really in business.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	James Madison	NR
6-Sep	at South Florida	86
13-Sep	West Virginia	71
20-Sep	at Syracuse	67
27-Sep	at Indiana	47
4-Oct	Ohio State	4
18-Oct	Iowa	34
25-Oct	at Wisconsin	15
1-Nov	at Penn State	37
15-Nov	Michigan State	13
22-Nov	at Michigan	32
29-Nov	Rutgers	78

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-5.0% (72)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	43
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / -9.5
TO Luck/Game	+1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	18 (9, 9)

10. A top-40 team wins seven or eight games

Maryland football is in a pretty weird place overall. The negative feelings of the 2011 debacle (the Terps fell from 9-4 in Ralph Friedgen's last year to 2-10) and subsequent transfer fest have still lingered, and Randy Edsall appears to be on at least a little bit of a hot seat despite the wealth of injuries and two straight years of improvement.

Plus, the Terps face a conference slate that features Rutgers, Iowa, and Indiana instead of Wake Forest, Clemson, and NC State, and the ongoing ACC divorce has remained nasty. The Terps are in an unfamiliar new conference, and the roster has been constantly young and unfamiliar over the past two seasons.

On paper, though, there's quite a bit to like about the 2014 Terrapins. Injuries have produced depth of experience, and there are play-makers throughout the offensive skill positions and defensive front seven. The quarterback is experienced, the secondary is deeper than it was last year, and the offensive line has at least a little bit of upside. There are no clear, obvious holes, and with reasonable health (if that's even possible in College Park), Maryland could threaten to not only improve for a third straight year (that's almost a given), but improve by quite a bit.

They'll need to. The Big Ten was either really nice or mean to the Terps, giving them home games against Ohio State and Michigan State and road trips to Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin right out of the gates. A strong, top-40 caliber team might only go 7-5 without some bounces. But with a bounce or two and another road upset, a healthy Maryland team could threaten to reach 9-3. There is quite a bit of opportunity here, but now would not be a good time for another swath or injuries or any other causes for regression.