The big 2014 Tulsa football preview: Can another great D prop up another bad O?

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1. Whoops

It's happened every few years. Since 2003, when Steve Kragthorpe took over the Tulsa football program, the Golden Hurricane have had random sketchy seasons. An 8-5 campaign in 2003 was followed by 4-8 in 2004. Four increasingly impressive seasons (culminating with 11-3 in 2008) under Kragthorpe and Todd Graham followed by a 5-7 dud in 2009. A 29-11 record from 2010-12 followed by a 3-9 stinker in 2013.

In theory, this sort of thing happens, especially with programs in parity-heavy leagues. Tulsa recruited about as well as most of its Conference USA brethren, and when you've got the same level of talent, your record can slip or rise from year to year based on experience, injuries, luck, whatever. Occasional bad seasons happen to most.

But wow, did things fall apart for Tulsa in 2013. Even if it's just temporary, the magnitude of the tumble is worrisome. The offense fell from 59th in Off. F/+ in 2012 to 110th. The defense fell from 27th in Def. F/+ to 53rd. Even the special teams fell apart, from 75th to 113th. Tulsa couldn't pass and couldn't generate any big plays on the ground. The aggressive Hurricane defense suffered a lot more breakdowns than it had in previous years. Field position was mostly disastrous.

Injuries and personnel issues certainly played a role. Quarterback Cody Green was barely full strength, the receiver hierarchy shifted a few times, and the starting offensive line changed five times. Only two primary defensive linemen and two linebackers played in all 12 games. Plus, starting safety Demarco Nelson missed the season because of academics. Tulsa really never had its intended top 22 on the field in 2013.

Still ... F/+ rankings go back to 2005, and this was easily the worst Tulsa team in that span. The Hurricane had only once ranked worse than 56th, and they ranked 94th. How long will it take them to bounce back? Will they bounce back?

2. Outlier vs. new normal

And now Tulsa joins a better conference. Granted, it's not a 15-story leap by any means -- the AAC is basically a slightly super-charged version of the pre-2013 Conference USA -- but it's better than Conference USA. Tulsa is taking this step up a year after putting its worst team in quite a while on the field. This isn't optimal.

Is there any chance the Golden Hurricane can right the ship despite the competition upgrade? Possibly, though it does take quite a few ifs.

• If sophomore Dane Evans takes a nice step forward...
• If running back James Flanders provides a nice boost in explosiveness...
• If a couple from a large batch of young receivers become semi-reliable...
• If the defense can tighten up on passing downs...
• If a dreadful punting game can become less of an outright liability...

...then Tulsa could at least climb back into the 70s or 60s, maybe higher. But give me five ifs, and I can make just about anybody pretty good.

For the first time in quite a while, Bill Blankenship and the Tulsa football program face the burden of proof. How will the Hurricane respond?

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 94
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	at Bowling Green	47	7-34	L	17.8 - 20.5	L
7-Sep	Colorado State	66	30-27	W	23.8 - 11.3	W
14-Sep	at Oklahoma	20	20-51	L	25.6 - 40.4	L
26-Sep	Iowa State	78	21-38	L	23.3 - 31.7	L
5-Oct	Rice	69	27-30	L	24.4 - 26.3	L	-3.0
12-Oct	at UTEP	119	34-20	W	24.9 - 29.5	L	-3.4
26-Oct	at Tulane	70	7-14	L	22.7 - 25.7	L	-6.5
2-Nov	UTSA	67	15-34	L	23.0 - 29.0	L	-4.8
9-Nov	at East Carolina	40	24-58	L	30.6 - 30.6	W	-3.1
14-Nov	Marshall	52	34-45	L	25.6 - 25.4	W	-2.7
23-Nov	at Louisiana Tech	112	24-14	W	25.9 - 20.5	W	-0.7
30-Nov	North Texas	51	10-42	L	15.6 - 38.0	L	-4.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-12.2%	110	+1.9%	53	-3.2%	113
Points Per Game	21.1	103	33.9	102
Adj. Points Per Game	23.6	101	27.4	63

3. Basically the same team all year

No matter who was or wasn't playing in a given week, Tulsa was basically the same team. There were particular duds, especially the season-ender against North Texas, but from month to month, the averages stayed basically the same.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 26.0, Tulsa 22.6 (minus-3.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Opponent 27.6, Tulsa 23.8 (minus-3.8)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 28.6, Tulsa 24.4 (minus-4.2)

Again, this isn't particularly encouraging. It's not as if things fell apart when this or that player went down. Tulsa just wasn't very good in 2013.

More encouraging: Tulsa was very, very young on defense. As has been the case under Blankenship, the defense wasn't too bad in 2013, and it should become a strength again this fall. But ... the Hurricane still have to play offense, too.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.00	119	IsoPPP+	85.3	124
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.2%	111	Succ. Rt. +	93.9	84
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	34.1	121	Def. FP+	93.4	121
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.3	115	Redzone S&P+	89.0	100
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	29.8		ACTUAL	34	+4.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	101	99	85	91
RUSHING	70	81	64	63
PASSING	101	105	105	97
Standard Downs		96	78	121
Passing Downs		103	95	106

Q1 Rk	71	1st Down Rk	92
Q2 Rk	102	2nd Down Rk	97
Q3 Rk	101	3rd Down Rk	106
Q4 Rk	97

4. Wanted: big plays

Cody Green was injured and just plain ineffective throughout the season. In the end, he basically split the year's snaps with then-freshman Dane Evans. Tulsa's offense is very much an efficiency-first approach -- and there's certainly very good reason to focus on efficiency -- and among other things, the Hurricane's quick-passing approach keeps sacks and negative plays down. In 438 pass attempts, Tulsa quarterbacks were only sacked 10 times. But efficiency offenses obviously work best when the skill position talent is able to randomly break a big gainer, and Tulsa managed only 12 30-yard gains all year; only Miami (Ohio) had fewer.

Without big plays, Tulsa was forced to dink and dunk for eight to 10 error-free plays at a time ... and there were far too many errors. Evans was interception-prone (a five percent interception rate is far too high, especially considering the length of the passes), and only running back Trey Watts (38 percent Opportunity Rate, 65 percent catch rate) was anything close to reliable.

Watts is gone, and the starting quarterback job appears to be Evans' to lose. Tulsa needs to do him more favors, either from an efficiency standpoint or via more frequent big plays, and it's not immediately obvious how that's going to happen.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Cody Green				117	211	1339	7	8	55.5%	5	2.3%	6.1
Dane Evans	6'2, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	84	195	898	4	10	43.1%	4	2.0%	4.2
Joseph Calcagni	6'1, 202	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	9	22	60	1	1	40.9%	1	4.3%	2.2
Ryan Rubley	6'3, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jabe Burgess	6'2, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Trey Watts	RB				268	1329	11	5.0	4.7	38.4%
Ja'Terian Douglas	RB				113	379	2	3.4	3.2	28.3%
Cody Green	QB				31	93	1	3.0	3.6	29.0%
Dane Evans	QB	6'2, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	20	105	1	5.3	4.6	40.0%
Zack Langer	RB	5'11, 204	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	18	58	0	3.2	3.6	22.2%
Keevan Lucas	WR	5'10, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	73	0	6.1	5.2	50.0%
Colby Scott	FB	6'2, 242	Jr.	NR
James Flanders	RB	5'10, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Tavarreon Dickerson	RB	5'9, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Ramadi Warren	RB	5'9, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jordan James	WR				83	39	471	47.0%	21.0%	48.4%	5.7	-90	4.7	44.1
Trey Watts	RB				71	46	416	64.8%	18.0%	47.4%	5.9	-139	6.6	39.0
Keevan Lucas	FL	5'10, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	56	32	442	57.1%	14.2%	44.4%	7.9	30	8.0	41.4
Thomas Roberson	SE				53	27	363	50.9%	13.4%	43.8%	6.8	-7	6.5	34.0
Derek Patterson	SE	6'0, 184	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	24	12	144	50.0%	6.1%	55.6%	6.0	-22	4.9	13.5
Keyarris Garrett	WR	6'4, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	20	7	68	35.0%	5.1%	38.9%	3.4	-53	3.3	6.4
Conner Floyd	FL	6'0, 202	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	19	9	91	47.4%	4.8%	33.3%	4.8	-38	3.1	8.5
Joshua Atkinson	SE	6'2, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	19	9	76	47.4%	4.8%	36.4%	4.0	-53	4.6	7.1
Ja'Terian Douglas	RB				18	11	96	61.1%	4.6%	30.8%	5.3	-41	6.1	9.0
Tyler Wilson	TE	6'6, 248	So.	3 stars (5.5)	17	9	79	52.9%	4.3%	100.0%	4.6	-42	2.6	7.4
Cody Wilson	FB				6	3	8	50.0%	1.5%	100.0%	1.3	-34	0.6	0.7
Zach Epps	WR	6'4, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	2	1	6	50.0%	0.5%	N/A	3.0	-8	0.0	0.6
Kolton Shindelar	TE	6'6, 252	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Garrett McGrady	TE	6'7, 235	So.	NR
Nigel Carter	WR	6'3, 198	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Justin Hobbs	WR	6'4, 200	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Bishop Louie	WR	5'10, 170	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Brodrick Umblance	WR	6'1, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Payton Prince	TE	6'4, 237	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. New blood, like it or not

The collapse of the Tulsa offense actually began in 2012; Green wasn't an efficient enough passer for an efficiency attack, and the Golden Hurricane's rushing options were either all-efficiency Alex Singleton or all-or-nothing Watts or Ja'Terian Douglas.

Considering Tulsa had to replace three good offensive linemen and Singleton, it was certainly conceivable that the Hurricane would regress on offense again. And they did. But the way it happened was strange. If anything, the line improved. But Green was less effective and less healthy, and Evans was far too mistake prone. Watts and Douglas both did far less with the open-field opportunities they got, and after a disappointing few games, potential leading receiver Keyarris Garrett was lost with injury.

After disappointing final seasons, Watts and Douglas are both gone. So are two of last three's top wideouts. (Well, "top." They were targeted the most, but they certainly didn't do much with the targets.) For better or worse, Tulsa is going to have to lean on a new cast of skill position characters, even if Garrett is back to his 2012 form -- he caught 67 of 121 passes for 845 yards that year (not great, not terrible).

New blood probably isn't a bad thing, and there are certainly quite a few former three-star recruits in the mix for playing time. James Flanders finished the spring as the No. 1 running back. Keevan Lucas was actually the best wideout on the team (on a per-target basis) as a freshman. And Garrett aside, there are three former three-star recruits jockeying for position in the receiving corps. There are options, and almost none of them have proven anything.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.2	2.81	2.93	34.6%	74.4%	20.3%	330.6	0.6%	2.8%
Rank	78	80	97	109	28	76	1	1	8

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Stetson Burnett	RT				42	1st All-CUSA
Jake Alexander	LG				23
Gabe Moyer	RG				16
Garrett Stafford	LT	6'5, 301	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13
Dylan Foxworth	C	6'1, 281	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8
Davis Walton	RT	6'5, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	8
Garrett Gladd	RG	6'4, 302	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Chris Wallace	LG	6'5, 310	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Billy Lafortune	RG	6'0, 283	Jr.	NR	0
James Floyd	LG	6'3, 301	So.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Blake Belcher	LT	6'5, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Rob Boyd	RG	6'3, 319	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Zac Uhles	C	6'3, 265	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Blake Mejia	OG	6'2, 290	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Evan Plagg	RT	6'4, 267	RSFr.	NR
Tyler Bowling	OL	6'6, 295	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

6. Three big losses up front

For the second straight year, offensive line coach (and offensive coordinator) Denver Johnson has to do some rebuilding up front. He had to replace three all-conference starters in 2013, and he's got three more spots to fill atop the depth chart this time around.

Again, this worked out pretty well last season; Stetson Burnett came up big at right tackle, and the line succeeded in both pass blocking (not hard, given the quick passing) and short-yardage rushing situations.

Three players with starting experience do return (29 career starts), but we'll see if Johnson can craft another solid line with another level of depth skimmed off.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.13	57	IsoPPP+	95.2	92
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.1%	57	Succ. Rt. +	101.3	50
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.7	97	Off. FP+	101.5	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	90	Redzone S&P+	101.5	52
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.6		ACTUAL	24.0	-0.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	95	61	50	75
RUSHING	97	67	55	79
PASSING	65	58	50	72
Standard Downs		60	53	71
Passing Downs		72	54	102

Q1 Rk	86	1st Down Rk	42
Q2 Rk	46	2nd Down Rk	67
Q3 Rk	72	3rd Down Rk	79
Q4 Rk	38

7. Break-don't-bend

For a few years now, Tulsa has had one of the more entertaining, aggressive defenses in the mid-major universe. The Hurricane are unafraid of allowing some big plays in the name of forcing turnovers and three-and-outs, and they're pretty good at it. Even in 2013, when the overall product regressed, the style was similar.

So why did the product regress? A couple of reasons. First, the defensive line had no choice but to regress. Tulsa ranked 37th in Adj. Line Yards and third in Adj. Sack Rate but lost all four starters and the most successfully aggressive linebacker (DeAundre Brown). There was no way to avoid regression, and sure enough, Tulsa fell to 76th in Adj. Line Yards and 32nd in Adj. Sack Rate. That's still pretty decent, but not great.

Accordingly, the rest of the defense regressed by a similar amount. With freshman cornerbacks and a less effective pass rush, the pass defense regressed from 28th in Passing S&P+ to 58th, which, again, is pretty decent (especially with the youth in the secondary) but not as good.

Whereas there was quite a bit of turnover in 2013, there's almost none this time around. That should mean the return of the Very Good Tulsa Defense.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.2	3.06	3.47	38.8%	71.2%	21.3%	116.6	7.4%	6.7%
Rank	76	79	80	59	89	36	32	11	65

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derrick Luetjen	DT	6'3, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	34.5	4.8%	3.5	1.5	0	3	2	0
Derrick Alexander	DE	6'2, 270	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	23.0	3.2%	9.5	6.5	0	3	2	0
Brentom Todd	DE	6'3, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	21.0	2.9%	2.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Chris Hummingbird	DE	6'2, 265	Sr.	NR	11	20.0	2.8%	8.5	3.0	0	3	1	0
Jesse Brubaker	DT	6'3, 285	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11	15.0	2.1%	3.0	1.0	0	3	0	0
Jerry Uwaezuoke	DT	6'3, 295	So.	NR	11	8.0	1.1%	3.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Dalton Rodriguez	DE				9	5.5	0.8%	3.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Hayden Carman	DT	6'4, 288	So.	NR	12	4.0	0.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cory Rahmings	DE	6'2, 245	So.	3 stars (5.5)	6	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Frankie Davis	DE	6'2, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Lionell Phillips	DT	6'2, 285	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jake Hanks	DE	6'2, 235	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Willie Wright	DT	6'3, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

8. Get bigger

One of Tulsa's bigger issues in 2013 was that the front four just wasn't very big. With quite a few freshmen, redshirt freshmen, and sophomores in the rotation, there were quite a few players that just hadn't been in the weight training regimen quite long enough. Tulsa was quick enough to rank 36th in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line), but the line got pushed around terribly in short-yardage situations.

That might not be as much of a problem this time around. Upperclassmen like Derrick Luetjen and Brentom Todd are listed five pounds heavier than last year, but the tackles have taken off: Jesse Brubaker has gone from 275 to 285, Jerry Uwaezuoke has gone from 278 to 295, and Hayden Carman has gone from 274 to 288. We'll see how this impacts quickness and negative plays, but in theory, getting pushed around won't be as big an issue.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Shawn Jackson	MIKE				12	99.0	13.8%	17.5	4.5	5	3	0	0
Mitchell Osborne	CANE	6'2, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	61.5	8.6%	5.5	2.0	0	7	1	0
Donnell Hawkins	MIKE	6'1, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	7	38.5	5.4%	4.5	2.5	1	0	0	0
DeWitt Jennings	WILL				10	25.0	3.5%	4.5	2.0	0	2	1	0
Trent Martin	MIKE	6'2, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	20.5	2.9%	4.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Jake Sizelove	MIKE	6'0, 217	Sr.	NR	9	10.5	1.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Luke Snider	CANE	5'10, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	9.0	1.3%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Shawn Norman	LB	5'11, 194	So.	NR	12	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zik Asiegbu	WILL	6'0, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	9	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Conner Sherwood	WILL	6'2, 218	So.	3 stars (5.5)
C.J. Gooden	WILL	6'1, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Craig Suits	CANE	6'0, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Devin Rolan	LB	6'0, 250	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Petera Wilson	LB	6'2, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tim Quickel	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Michael Mudoh	BAN	5'10, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	96.5	13.5%	1	0	1	5	0	0
Demarco Nelson (2012)	FS	6'0, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	66.0	8.5%	4	0	2	3	1	1
Darnell Walker, Jr.	CB	5'10, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	11	45.5	6.3%	1	0	4	8	0	0
Will Barrow	CB	5'9, 170	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	42.5	5.9%	0	0	2	5	2	2
Dwight Dobbins	CB	5'9, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	9	32.5	4.5%	0	0	1	5	0	0
Austin McDaniel	CB	5'11, 192	Sr.	NR	12	29.5	4.1%	1	0	1	7	0	1
Bradley White	FS	5'11, 180	Jr.	NR	12	21.0	2.9%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Johnell Celistan	CB	6'2, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	11.5	1.6%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Matt Linscott	S	6'1, 212	So.	NR	11	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darrell Williams	CB	5'10, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Joe Bean	BAN	5'11, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kerwin Thomas	CB	5'10, 160	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jordan Dennis	DB	6'2, 175	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jordan Mitchell	DB	6'2, 180	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

9. Almost everybody

With Demarco Nelson returning to the fold, Tulsa basically has five returning starters in its four-man secondary. And in all, there are 34 returnees listed above and only three departures. That's ridiculous. Tulsa has four cornerbacks who combined for eight interceptions and 25 break-ups last year, and after featuring four freshmen in its top eight last year, Nelson's return means there are now three seniors on the tw-deep alongside the youngsters.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Dalton Parks	6'3, 202	So.	66	39.5	0	14	20	51.5%
Cole Way	6'8, 227	Sr.	6	37.5	0	3	0	50.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Cole Way	6'8, 227	Sr.	55	63.8	33	0	60.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Carl Salazar	5'8, 172	Sr.	25-26	16-19	84.2%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Ja'Terian Douglas	KR			13	28.4	0
Trey Watts	KR			9	20.7	0
Trey Watts	PR			21	7.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	113
Field Goal Efficiency	56
Punt Return Efficiency	118
Kick Return Efficiency	43
Punt Efficiency	124
Kickoff Efficiency	82
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	72

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	Tulane	90
6-Sep	Oklahoma	9
13-Sep	at Florida Atlantic	103
27-Sep	Texas State	114
4-Oct	at Colorado State	85
11-Oct	at Temple	87
18-Oct	South Florida	77
31-Oct	at Memphis	95
8-Nov	SMU	74
14-Nov	at Central Florida	24
22-Nov	at Houston	41
28-Nov	East Carolina	72

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-0.2% (55)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	76
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-10 / -5.2
TO Luck/Game	-2.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (4, 10)

10. Stock up early

Bill Blankenship's ability to turn his program back around and once again threaten for bowl eligibility despite the conference upgrade will depend on how well the Golden Hurricane stock up on wins early in the year. Three of their four lowest-projected opponents come in the first four games, and a 3-1 start could set the table for a decent year.

Because of the defense alone, I do see pretty decent improvement in store for this Tulsa team. With reasonable injuries luck, this bigger, more experienced defense could quite easily end up back in the top 40 in Def. F/+. But Tulsa's fate rides on its offense; it struggled two years ago and completely fell apart in 2013, and it must rebound despite the loss of three offensive linemen, two running backs, and two of last year's top three receivers. There will be a lot of pressure on quarterback Dane Evans to not only play well but make plays, and he'll have to find those plays among a rather young supporting cast.

That's not a very good recipe for improvement, and it will probably hold the Golden Hurricane back in 2014.