The big 2014 Illinois football preview: The Illini don't do stability

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Stability? Who needs it?

Each year in this preview series, the order for a given conference is set using each team's five-year F/+ ratings. This measure gives us an easy look at each program's overall stability, and as a result, we're in theory counting down from least to most healthy in each conference.

Assigning Illinois any sort of five-year rating at all, however, feels strange. This program's identity, direction, and general health change drastically with each passing season. The Fighting Illini's five-year ranking is 71st, but between 2009-13, they ranked within 18 spots of 71st only once. In 2013, they actually hit the nail on the head, ranking exactly 71st; in the previous four years, they had ranked 92nd, 32nd, 53rd, and 108th, respectively.

A team rising or falling by 20 or 30 spots in the rankings from year to year is a relative rarity, but Illinois does it every damn season, and it goes farther back than just five years. Since 2005, they have ranked in the 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, 70s, 90s, and 100s. In the 13 seasons since 2001, they've experienced one-, two-, three-, five-, seven-, nine- and 10-win seasons. There is no normal in Champaign. While other programs establish a certain lot in life, the Illini float around like an empty grocery sack.

Tim Beckman's second season in Champaign was quite a bit more positive than his first. The funk of the 2-10 campaign of 2012 didn't entirely wear off, and the Illini only progressed toward a mediocre standing overall, but improvement is improvement. There was almost nowhere to go but up in 2013, but Illinois, to its credit, went pretty far up.

Now, to achieve relevance, the Illini have to do it again. With Illinois, anything's possible, but there's there isn't a lot of evidence for hope of a second surge.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 71
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Southern Illinois	N/A	42-34	W	30.4 - 30.4	W
7-Sep	Cincinnati	64	45-17	W	49.4 - 25.0	W
14-Sep	vs. Washington	18	24-34	L	31.1 - 33.6	L
28-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	123	50-14	W	38.7 - 45.7	L
5-Oct	at Nebraska	39	19-39	L	24.9 - 42.2	L	-0.5
19-Oct	Wisconsin	19	32-56	L	47.9 - 37.1	W	1.7
26-Oct	Michigan State	6	3-42	L	21.0 - 46.3	L	-8.3
2-Nov	at Penn State	61	17-24	L	34.4 - 30.5	W	-7.0
9-Nov	at Indiana	56	35-52	L	26.3 - 44.6	L	-9.2
16-Nov	Ohio State	9	35-60	L	27.9 - 30.7	L	-6.4
23-Nov	at Purdue	114	20-16	W	25.3 - 28.1	L	-9.1
30-Nov	Northwestern	59	34-37	L	35.0 - 32.3	W	-3.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+5.7%	39	-10.0%	100	+0.3%	58
Points Per Game	29.7	60	35.4	105
Adj. Points Per Game	32.7	37	35.5	111

2. October: a smoking crater

Look only at the first four games of 2013 and the last three, and you see a team that was reasonably decent, perhaps above average. Yes, Illinois lost by 25 points to Ohio State, but it was at least only a 12-pound game with five minutes left. The Illini were competitive in losses to the Buckeyes and Washington and a bit unlucky in a loss to Northwestern, and they trounced Cincinnati to boot. These seven games don't represent a good team, but ... decent? Mediocre? Sure.

And then there are the five games in the middle.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Illinois 37.4, Opponent 33.7 (plus-3.7)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Opponent 40.1, Illinois 30.9 (minus-9.2)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 3 games): Opponent 30.4, Illinois 29.4 (minus-1.0)

Illinois lost to Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Michigan State by an average score of 45-18, played well in a loss to Penn State, then got obliterated at Indiana. By the time Ohio State came to town, a 3-1 start had begat a five-game losing streak, and the Buckeyes' late surge finished off any hopes of bowl eligibility.

The awful post-September drop took the shine off of what was still a season of overall improvement. Under a new coordinator, the offense surged back after a miserable 2012, but the defense sank too far back for it to matter. Now Illinois has to rebuild the defense while the offense replaces its quarterback.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.17	48	IsoPPP+	112.4	15
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.9%	32	Succ. Rt. +	107.0	36
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	31.6	102	Def. FP+	98.4	76
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	58	Redzone S&P+	105.3	40
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.3		ACTUAL	21	+1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	46	28	36	21
RUSHING	93	35	36	46
PASSING	22	34	38	24
Standard Downs		22	41	5
Passing Downs		55	40	92

Q1 Rk	30	1st Down Rk	28
Q2 Rk	31	2nd Down Rk	43
Q3 Rk	22	3rd Down Rk	20
Q4 Rk	47

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Nathan Scheelhaase				287	430	3272	21	13	66.7%	27	5.9%	6.7
Reilly O'Toole	6'4, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	16	141	1	1	75.0%	2	11.1%	7.2
Aaron Bailey	6'2, 220	So.	4 stars (5.9)	2	5	4	1	0	40.0%	0	0.0%	0.8
Wes Lunt (Oklahoma State 2012)	6'5, 215	So.	4 stars (5.8)	81	131	1108	6	7	61.8%	1	0.8%	8.3
Chayce Crouch	6'4, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

3. Year 0 A.N.

Bill Cubit's time as an FBS head coach didn't end on a high note. After averaging seven wins per season at Western Michigan, his Broncos fell to 4-8 in 2012, and he found himself looking for a new job.

He took on a doozy: Illinois offensive coordinator. He was tasked with restoring an offense that had fallen all the way to 117th in Off. F/+ in 2012, and damned if he didn't do it. Illinois' offense wasn't elite in 2013, but it improved all the way to 39th. The Illini struggled on passing downs but were proficient at staying on schedule. In running back Josh Ferguson and wideout Steve Hull, he had a pair of big-play weapons, and senior quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase completed two-thirds of his passes and once again began to show some of the promise at which he had hinted in 2010.

Scheelhaase is now gone. It felt like he was an eight-year starter in Champaign, and he was around long enough to take part in a surprising program surge (from 3-9 to 7-6 in 2010), a second bowl game (7-6 in 2011), a comprehensive collapse (2-10 in 2012), and a second surge of sorts. In his absence, Cubit has replacement options of all shapes and sizes. To name two: Reilly O'Toole is a longtime backup, and Aaron Bailey is a highly touted sophomore.

It appears, however, that the most likely option is Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt, who has already had a rather strange career himself. Appointed Brandon Weeden's successor as a true freshman, Lunt completed 62 percent of his passes at an aggressive 13.7 yards per completion in 2012 but was a little bit interception-prone; injury troubles got him knocked backwards on the depth chart, and he elected to transfer in the spring. Transferring to another major-conference school in a quest for playing time is tricky, and while O'Toole and Bailey aren't J.W. Walsh and Clint Chelf, Bailey's pedigree suggests he could be hard to fend off over the next three seasons. Regardless, Lunt finished spring atop the depth chart. We'll see how his aggressive tendencies mesh with Cubit's often horizontal offense.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Josh Ferguson	RB	5'10, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	141	779	7	5.5	5.9	39.0%
Donovonn Young	RB	6'0, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	93	376	3	4.0	3.4	32.3%
Nathan Scheelhaase	QB				86	487	4	5.7	3.8	53.5%
Aaron Bailey	QB	6'2, 220	So.	4 stars (5.9)	20	83	3	4.2	3.8	35.0%
Jon Davis	TE	6'3, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	9	36	0	4.0	4.5	22.2%
Devin Church	WR	5'8, 185	So.	3 stars (5.6)	8	44	1	5.5	3.0	50.0%
Reilly O'Toole	QB	6'4, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	8	46	0	5.8	4.3	37.5%
Ryan Lankford	WR				7	39	1	5.6	8.1	57.1%
Kendrick Foster	RB	5'9, 195	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Matt Domer	RB	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

4. Get to know Josh Ferguson

Opportunity Rate and Highlight Yards do a decent job of measuring a runner's efficiency and explosiveness. Obviously the quality of blocking and all sorts of other factors are involved here, but we get a good description of a runner by looking at how frequently he got at least five yards downfield (Opportunity Rate) and how explosive he was when he did (Highlight Yards).

In 2013, only 16 FBS running backs combined at least a 39 percent Opportunity Rate with an average of at least 5.9 Highlight Yards per opportunity. Among this group are some of the most celebrated backs in the country: Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon and James White, Miami's Duke Johnson, LSU's Jeremy Hill, Baylor's Lache Seastrunk, South Carolina's Mike Davis, and Colorado State's Kapri Bibbs. Ferguson was in that group, as well.

Cubit's Illinois offense was by all means a pass-first unit -- a Bill Cubit offense will pretty much ALWAYS be a pass-first unit -- but Ferguson still did quite a bit of damage in about 12 carries and five targets per game. He rushed for nearly 800 yards and was second on the team with 60 targets, 50 catches, and 520 receiving yards. He is a unique, well-rounded threat, and there's a chance that, without Scheelhaase or last year's top three wideouts, Illinois leans on him quite a bit in 2014.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Steve Hull	WR-X				83	59	993	71.1%	19.0%	62.7%	12.0	313	11.9	145.7
Josh Ferguson	RB	5'10, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	60	50	520	83.3%	13.8%	66.7%	8.7	-16	8.9	76.3
Spencer Harris	WR-Z				58	39	328	67.2%	13.3%	63.0%	5.7	-134	5.4	48.1
Miles Osei	WR-T				53	35	364	66.0%	12.2%	56.3%	6.9	-54	7.4	53.4
Martize Barr	WR-T	6'0, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	46	26	246	56.5%	10.6%	42.4%	5.3	-91	5.1	36.1
Matt LaCosse	TE	6'6, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	29	20	237	69.0%	6.7%	60.0%	8.2	3	4.8	34.8
Jon Davis	TE	6'3, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	28	25	208	89.3%	6.4%	79.2%	7.4	-52	8.3	30.5
Ryan Lankford	WR				28	15	308	53.6%	6.4%	61.5%	11.0	108	11.6	45.2
Donovonn Young	RB	6'0, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	17	12	43	70.6%	3.9%	76.9%	2.5	-96	2.0	6.3
Justin Hardee	WR-Z	6'1, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	14	11	95	78.6%	3.2%	71.4%	6.8	-26	4.3	13.9
Evan Wilson	TE				13	6	67	46.2%	3.0%	100.0%	5.2	-20	3.4	9.8
Devin Church	WR-X	5'8, 185	So.	3 stars (5.6)	3	2	5	66.7%	0.7%	100.0%	1.7	-19	-0.6	0.7
Dionte Taylor	WR-T	6'0, 180	So.	3 stars (5.7)	3	1	5	33.3%	0.7%	N/A	1.7	-13	0.0	0.7
Tyler White	TE	6'5, 245	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Marchie Murdock	WR	6'1, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Geronimo Allison	WR	6'3, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tyrin Stone-Davis	WR	6'3, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Mike Dudek	WR	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. Starting from scratch out wide

The good news is that two of the top three departed wideouts were the definition of "replaceable." Spencer Harris and Miles Osei had high catch rates, but almost all of their targets were near the line of scrimmage.

Steve Hull, on the other hand, exploded for nearly 1,000 receiving yards as a senior after spending most of his career as a defensive back. Cases like Hull's completely skew expectations for when a player switches to the other side of the ball; it doesn't usually go like this, but it was a magnificent surprise for the Illinois offense.

Unfortunately it was only a one-year surprise, so the Illini are once again looking for play-makers out wide. Eight returnees caught at least one ball last season, and only one averaged better than 10.4 yards per catch: tight end Matt LaCosse, who averaged a still-meager 11.9. Junior college transfer Geronimo Allison finished the spring atop the depth chart; he caught 69 passes for 872 yards and eight touchdowns for Iowa Western Community College last year, and he and freshman Mike Dudek each used early enrollment to make a mark in the spring.

If someone can stretch the field at least a little bit, Cubit will know how to make the quick, horizontal passing game work. He's been doing the spread offense thing since the 1990s.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.2	2.94	2.96	40.7%	77.3%	19.4%	94.4	3.3%	11.2%
Rank	74	69	92	51	14	69	74	30	111

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Michael Heitz	LG	6'5, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	31
Simon Cvijanovic	LT	6'6, 310	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	26
Ted Karras	RG	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	22
Alex Hill	C	6'3, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	15
Corey Lewis	RT				12
Jake Feldmeyer	C				7
Joe Spencer	C	6'4, 300	So.	3 stars (5.7)	2
Chris O'Connor	RG	6'5, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Pat Flavin	LT	6'7, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Scott McDowell	RT	6'5, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Austin Schmidt	RT	6'6, 285	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Chris Boles	LG	6'4, 320	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Christian DiLauro	OL	6'5, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Nick Allegretti	OL	6'4, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Peter Cvijanovic	OL	6'6, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.21	96	IsoPPP+	90.8	110
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.9%	109	Succ. Rt. +	94.1	83
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.7	112	Off. FP+	96.5	96
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.5	95	Redzone S&P+	97.9	66
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	14.6		ACTUAL	11.0	-3.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	112	100	83	96
RUSHING	118	83	60	95
PASSING	82	108	102	94
Standard Downs		103	93	111
Passing Downs		85	52	103

Q1 Rk	99	1st Down Rk	106
Q2 Rk	49	2nd Down Rk	97
Q3 Rk	109	3rd Down Rk	92
Q4 Rk	119

6. Thrown into the fire

Three years ago, Illinois had one of the best defenses in the country. The Illini ranked eighth in Def. F/+ in Ron Zook's final season; the line featured a pair of ferocious ends (Michael Buchanan and Whitney Mercilus), there were two missiles in the linebacking corps (Jonathan Brown and Trulon Henry), and the starting cornerbacks were serious play-makers (Tavon Wilson, Terry Hawthorne).

In 2012, half of that set of play-makers had departed, as had the defensive coordinator, and the defense dropped all the way to 71st in Def. F/+.

Last year, it got even worse. With a young, uncertain two-deep, Illinois ranked 100th in Def. F/+. The offense improved from the 100s to the top 40 over the last two years, just in time to simply offset defensive regression.

Illinois really did have youth as an excuse, however. Below, you'll find that 16 current sophomores and juniors made at least 4.5 tackles last season. To the extent that inexperience held the Illini back, that will no longer be a hindrance. Now we just have to find out if there's actual talent here.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.1	3.12	3.66	43.2%	64.7%	17.0%	63.6	2.2%	5.6%
Rank	62	90	100	106	49	93	114	115	91

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Austin Teitsma	NT	6'2, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	34.5	4.9%	5.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Houston Bates	LEO				12	28.0	4.0%	11.0	3.5	0	2	2	0
Tim Kynard	DE				12	26.0	3.7%	8.0	2.5	0	3	1	0
Teko Powell	DT	6'3, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	13.5	1.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	1
DeJazz Woods	LEO	6'3, 255	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12	11.0	1.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kenny Nelson	DE	6'6, 250	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	11.0	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jake Howe	NT	6'3, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dawuane Smoot	LEO	6'3, 250	So.	3 stars (5.6)	7	5.5	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Robbie Bain	NT	6'3, 300	So.	3 stars (5.6)	10	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jarrod Clements	DE	6'3, 285	So.	3 stars (5.7)	10	3.5	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Abe Cajuste	NT	6'3, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Paul James	DE	6'4, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Joe Fotu	DE	6'3, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jihad Ward	DT	6'6, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tito Odenigbo	DE	6'3, 275	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jonathan Brown	WLB				12	90.5	12.9%	15.0	5.0	1	4	1	0
Mason Monheim	MLB	6'1, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	69.5	9.9%	6.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
Mike Svetina	WLB	6'2, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	41.0	5.8%	2.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
T.J. Neal	MLB	6'1, 235	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	26.5	3.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ralph Cooper	WLB	6'1, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	7	7.0	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Zepheniah Grimes	WLB	5'11, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
LaKeith Walls	LB	6'2, 210	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Carroll Phillips	LB	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)

7. Wanted: play-makers

That incredible 2011 defense featured four players with at least 10.5 tackles for loss; the 2013 defense featured only two, and both are gone. End/OLB Houston Bates transferred, and Jonathan Brown graduated; only three returning Illini defenders had more than 2.5 tackles for loss last year, and one (V'Angelo Bentley) is a cornerback.

Illinois' line was decent in power situations and ranked a semi-respectable 62nd overall in Adj. Line Yards, but the pass rush barely existed, and there's not a single proven option returning in 2014. Somebody's got to make plays up front, and I'm not sure who that's going to be. If a newcomer like junior college transfers Carroll Phillips or Joe Fotu or freshmen Paul James or monstrous Jihad Ward were to assert themselves this fall, there's plenty of playing time to be found.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Earnest Thomas III	STAR	6'2, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	79.0	11.2%	2	0	0	7	3	0
Zane Petty	FS	6'1, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	51.5	7.3%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Eaton Spence	CB	6'0, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	37.0	5.3%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Darius Mosely	CB	5'11, 185	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	28.5	4.1%	0.5	0	0	1	0	0
Taylor Barton	SS	6'1, 215	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	23.5	3.3%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Jaylen Dunlap	CB	6'1, 175	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	22.0	3.1%	1	0	0	2	0	0
V'Angelo Bentley	CB	5'10, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	17.5	2.5%	4	0	1	2	0	0
Eric Finney	STAR	6'1, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	10	12.0	1.7%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Caleb Day	CB	6'1, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)	8	6.5	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jevaris Little	SS	6'1, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dillan Cazley	CB	5'10, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	10	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
B.J. Bello	STAR	6'3, 215	So.	2 stars (5.4)	4	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Clayton Fejedelem	FS	6'1, 190	Jr.	NR
James Crawford	STAR	6'2, 205	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Darwin Kelly	CB	6'1, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Julian Hylton	DB	6'0, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

8. Mint condition

The secondary returns entirely intact. Granted, this would be more exciting if Illinois hadn't ranked 108th in Passing S&P+ last season, but the unit was quite young in 2013 and got almost no help from the pass rush. Illinois was pretty efficient on passing downs and returns a potential star in hard-hitting Earnest Thomas III; plus, the six freshmen and sophomores who played a pretty significant role in 2013 (along with four more in reserve) are now sophomores and juniors.

Eaton Spence showed at least a little bit of coverage ability, and V'Angelo Bentley is an aggressive corner near the line of scrimmage. The pass defense will improve in 2014, though it could still be pretty limited by the pass rush up front.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Justin DuVernois	6'1, 190	Sr.	51	41.1	2	5	13	35.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Taylor Zalewski	6'3, 220	Jr.	66	62.6	35	1	53.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Taylor Zalewski	6'3, 220	Jr.	38-38	10-12	83.3%	2-5	40.0%
Ryan Frain	6'2, 220	So.	2-2	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
V'Angelo Bentley	KR	5'10, 190	Jr.	31	21.4	1
Martize Barr	KR	6'0, 195	Sr.	7	20.3	0
V'Angelo Bentley	PR	5'10, 190	Jr.	12	15.8	1
Miles Osei	PR			7	12.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	58
Field Goal Efficiency	85
Punt Return Efficiency	16
Kick Return Efficiency	81
Punt Efficiency	56
Kickoff Efficiency	71
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	51

9. Hey, V'Angelo

This is now the third time I'm mentioning V'Angelo Bentley. I'm a fan. He was obviously a bit scattershot as a cornerback -- he made some plays, but the fact that he was the fourth-leading cornerback on a team that desperately needed play-makers tells you he had plenty of glitches along the way -- but he was also one of the conference's most explosive return men. His kick return efficiency left something to be desired (only one of every five returns was a good one), but the good ones went a long way, and he was one of only eight players in the country with both a kick and punt return touchdown.

Bentley is the start of a unit that was otherwise pretty nondescript. Taylor Zalewski was almost automatic on kicks under 40 yards, and both Zalewski (kickoffs) and Justin DuVernois (punts) produced fine averages. The coverage units suffered a few too many breakdowns, but this special teams unit should again rank among the top half of the country at the very least, neither an extreme strength nor weakness.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Youngstown State	NR
6-Sep	Western Kentucky	92
13-Sep	at Washington	28
20-Sep	Texas State	113
27-Sep	at Nebraska	40
4-Oct	Purdue	108
11-Oct	at Wisconsin	15
25-Oct	Minnesota	73
1-Nov	at Ohio State	4
15-Nov	Iowa	34
22-Nov	Penn State	37
29-Nov	at Northwestern	50

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-4.9% (71)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	58
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-10 / -4.7
TO Luck/Game	-2.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (6, 8)

10. Win at home

Take the name off of the helmet, and this strikes me as a team destined to rank between about 60th and 75th again in 2014. Maybe it could get in the No. 45-60 range if things click for Wes Lunt and a new receiving corps.

Since this is Illinois, however, it's hard not to simply assume that the Illini will either rank higher than 45th or lower than 100th. They don't seem to believe in staying in one place.

Regardless of the team's history, we can say with certainty that any hope of bowl eligibility in 2014 will hinge on winning at home. The road slate (Washington, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Northwestern) is devastating, and the home slate (Youngstown State, WKU, Texas State, Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa, Penn State) is ... less so. Beat the lesser visiting teams and go 2-1 against Minnesota, Iowa, and Penn State, and you're bowling. That doesn't seem like an intimidating task, but it's one that has almost no margin for error.

I like the job Tim Beckman did in 2013 to solidify the ground beneath his feet. The 2012 season was a disaster in just about every possible way, and his hiring of Cubit immediately rejuvenated an offense desperate for life. Now the former Bowling Green and Oklahoma State defensive coordinator has to figure out what to do with an Illinois defense that needs about three more play-makers than it had last year.

Honestly, if we're assuming another huge step either forward or backward in 2014, I'd bet on going forward. But there's no way in hell I'm betting on anything related to Illinois football, good or bad.