The big 2014 Northwestern football preview: How big is the bounce back?

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1. Memorable isn't always good

It's been a strange year or so in Evanston.

First, a program that has tended to fade into the background, winning either six or seven games six times in the nine seasons between 2003-11, went out and won 10 games (for just the second time since 1903) in 2012, capping the season with a Gator Bowl romp over an SEC team -- yes, it was Mississippi State, but it still counts -- and a spot in the postseason AP top 20. As a result, in 2013 Northwestern was ranked in the preseason polls for the first time in 12 years.

Then, the team went out and cut its wins in half, starting 2013 with a 4-0 record and reaching as high as 16th in the polls before losing seven games in a row, including four straight by eight or fewer points.

Finally, the program became one of the offseason's primary conversation topics when its departing quarterback spearheaded an effort to form a player union, with courts supporting the attempt and head coach Pat Fitzgerald very much turning up his nose at it.

Northwestern built a lot of positive buzz in 2012, spent most of it in 2013, and has made unique news (good and/or bad) off the field in 2014. Speculating on how the union battle might affect the on-field product seems pretty much impossible -- there's really no precedent for this -- so we won't. But there have certainly been more unique occurrences than normal for which the coaching staff has had to account in recent months.

Combined with last season's frustration, that could create a pretty volatile situation in Evanston this fall. Volatility can work in either direction, however -- rallying cry vs. team divider. We'll see what it means for the Wildcats, who now have much more to prove than they did a year ago.

2. Regression to the mean is harsh

During my first couple of years of writing these offseason previews, I became fixated on Northwestern's gaudy record in close games. From 2007-10, the Wildcats went a ridiculous 20-8 in games decided by one possession. That's not supposed to happen. It was fascinating trying to figure out the root cause of this. Were they letting inferior teams hang around too long before finally asserting themselves? Had Fitzgerald and his staff figured out ways to maximize the Little Things™ and close out tight games?

Was Northwestern lucky as hell? Was this all a sample-size issue that would work itself out over time?

The 2013 season certainly struck a blow for those latter two options. From October 5 to November 16, the Wildcats lost games in the following ways:

• They led Ohio State, 23-20, heading into the fourth quarter of one of the biggest home games in school history -- "College GameDay" in town, nearly 50,000 in attendance -- but gave up 20 points in the final 12 minutes and fell by 10 after the Buckeyes returned a desperation fumble for a score at the buzzer.
  
  
• They allowed just 299 yards to Minnesota and forced punts on seven of the Gophers' first nine possessions, but they lost two second-half turnovers (including a pick six) and managed to fall, 20-17.
  
  
• After allowing 102 yards and a touchdown in Iowa's first two possessions, they allowed just 203 yards the rest of the way, but they lost two more fumbles and fell in overtime, 17-10.
  
  
• Despite another pick six, they took a 24-21 lead over Nebraska with just 80 seconds left in Lincoln. Then this happened.
  
  
• In a game that featured 14 punts (eight from Northwestern) and saw the Wildcats stall and settle for field goals in their only three good drives of the game, they held a 9-6 lead in the closing seconds against Michigan before the Wolverines pulled off the quickest offense-to-field goal team transition in the history of football to force overtime. And in the third overtime, they fell, 27-19.

A finished drive here, a fumble recovery there, and a knocked-down Hail Mary, and this team finishes 8-4. Instead, Northwestern missed a bowl for the first time since 2007. Close-game luck boosted some shaky Northwestern teams and got them to bowls earlier in Fitzgerald's tenure; it did the opposite in 2013.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 5-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 59
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at California	103	44-30	W	24.6 - 30.8	L
7-Sep	Syracuse	75	48-27	W	45.1 - 36.4	W
14-Sep	Western Michigan	117	38-17	W	34.1 - 25.1	W
21-Sep	Maine	N/A	35-21	W	24.8 - 33.4	L
5-Oct	Ohio State	9	30-40	L	39.4 - 24.3	W	3.6
12-Oct	at Wisconsin	19	6-35	L	21.6 - 29.3	L	3.3
19-Oct	Minnesota	55	17-20	L	21.1 - 22.9	L	1.2
26-Oct	at Iowa	29	10-17	L	35.3 - 27.5	W	0.9
2-Nov	at Nebraska	39	24-27	L	27.4 - 25.2	W	3.1
16-Nov	Michigan	37	19-27	L	20.2 - 24.3	L	-0.7
23-Nov	Michigan State	6	6-30	L	33.5 - 37.9	L	-0.1
30-Nov	at Illinois	71	37-34	W	24.0 - 31.9	L	-1.3

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-2.1%	67	+4.4%	42	-0.3%	72
Points Per Game	26.2	83	27.1	69
Adj. Points Per Game	29.3	58	29.1	76

3. The offense gave out first

Bad fumbles luck and pick sixes played a significant role in Northwestern's 2013 misfortune. But so did bad offense.

In the first five games of the year, despite injury struggles for star running back Venric Mark, the Wildcats established a pretty high level of play, averaging 6.4 yards per play and 39.0 points per game against mostly mediocre-to-poor defenses. But over the six losses that followed, NU only once averaged even 5.0 yards per play (exactly 5.0 against Iowa), scored more than 20 points just once, and scored 10 or fewer points in regulation four times.

Things completely fell apart for the Northwestern offense, and in the final two games of the year, the defense gave out as well.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Northwestern 33.6, Opponent 30.0 (plus-3.6)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Opponent 25.8, Northwestern 25.1 (minus-0.7)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 2 games): Opponent 34.9, Northwestern 28.8 (minus-6.1)

(Luckily, one of those two final games was against Illinois, so the Wildcats still managed to finish on a winning note.)

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.02	113	IsoPPP+	89.2	113
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.9%	33	Succ. Rt. +	112.0	25
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.6	85	Def. FP+	98.4	76
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	96	Redzone S&P+	103.0	48
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.8		ACTUAL	20	+4.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	73	46	25	44
RUSHING	62	50	43	31
PASSING	71	35	16	55
Standard Downs		36	16	83
Passing Downs		81	52	124

Q1 Rk	57	1st Down Rk	42
Q2 Rk	17	2nd Down Rk	60
Q3 Rk	89	3rd Down Rk	40
Q4 Rk	34

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Trevor Siemian

6'3, 210

Sr.

3 stars (5.6)

177

296

2143

11

9

59.8%

19

6.0%

6.5

Kain Colter

64

82

583

4

3

78.0%

16

16.3%

5.1

Zack Oliver

6'4, 235

Jr.

3 stars (5.6)

Matt Alviti

6'0, 185

RSFr.

4 stars (5.8)

Clayton Thorson

6'4, 200

Fr.

4 stars (5.9)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Treyvon Green	RB	5'10, 215	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	138	736	8	5.3	5.5	38.4%
Kain Colter	QB				99	574	5	5.8	4.3	52.5%
Mike Trumpy	RB				97	370	2	3.8	2.8	34.0%
Stephen Buckley	RB	6'0, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	50	265	1	5.3	4.8	42.0%
Venric Mark	RB	5'8, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	31	97	0	3.1	3.0	29.0%
Trevor Siemian	QB	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	29	144	0	5.0	2.0	51.7%
Warren Long	RB	6'0, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	11	39	0	3.5	2.5	36.4%
Dan Vitale	SB	6'2, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	4	27	0	6.8	6.4	50.0%
Justin Jackson	RB	5'11, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Auston Anderson	RB	5'9, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

4. Another year, another quest for play-makers

Despite itself, Northwestern's offense was balanced and relatively efficient in 2013. The Wildcats ranked 16th in Passing Success Rate+ and 43rd in Rushing Success Rate+, and as long as they stayed on schedule, good things tended to happen.

But with almost no big-play threat whatsoever, Northwestern had to pull off eight or 10 snaps of error-free football to avoid falling behind schedule; that tended to be too difficult.

Trevor Siemian split snaps with Kain Colter over each of the last two seasons and was asked to take most of the snaps in obvious passing situations. That did his stat line no favors, but assuming he's allowed to take all of the first-string snaps this year (as in, blue-chip redshirt freshman Matt Alviti doesn't take his job or at least force him to split it), he'll be given some easier throws and opportunities.

Still, Northwestern needs big plays. The Wildcats had only 18 gains of 30+ yards last year, 107th in the country, and while running back Treyvon Green showed some jets here and there, the receiving corps just didn't have much to offer. Eight Wildcats caught at least nine passes last year; only one of them averaged more than 12.4 yards per catch (Rashad Lawrence), and three averaged 7.1 or fewer.

A quick, short passing game is fine and can often be rather efficient, but you still need players who can break a tackle and burst upfield occasionally.

That last year's top three targets return is a good thing, especially considering both Tony Jones and Christian Jones caught more than two-thirds of their targets. Can someone like former blue-chipper Kyle Prather (nagged by injuries for much of his career) or four-star Rutgers transfer Miles Shuler stretch the field a bit?

5. Old Venric

But at least Northwestern gets Venric Mark back. The senior from Tomball, Texas, erupted for 1,371 rushing yards with 6.5 highlight yards per opportunity and 12 touchdowns in 2012 and averaged an other-worldly 18.7 yards per punt return with two more scores. Granted, he's not much of a weapon in the passing game, but he was a constant big-play threat for the Wildcats in 2012.

In 2013, Mark played in just three games while battling an ankle injury. Green and Stephen Buckley got experience and showed potential of their own in Mark's absence, but if Mark is full-strength this fall, chances are good that offensive coordinator Mick McCall will figure out how to use him and the other backs. McCall's proven willing to experiment to get play-makers on the field -- case in point: Colter ending up as the Wildcats' leading rusher, passer, and receiver heading into 2012 -- and having three worthy running backs is a pretty good problem to have.

(Mark's presence could also reinvigorate a special teams unit that fell from fourth to 72nd overall last year.)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tony Jones	WR-X	6'0, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	80	55	616	68.8%	22.3%	66.2%	7.7	-29	7.1	87.6
Christian Jones	WR-H	6'3, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	77	54	668	70.1%	21.4%	58.3%	8.7	41	8.8	95.0
Dan Vitale	SUPER	6'2, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	57	34	382	59.6%	15.9%	50.9%	6.7	-46	6.9	54.3
Rashad Lawrence	WR-Z				48	31	463	64.6%	13.4%	68.3%	9.6	88	10.5	65.9
Mike Trumpy	RB				18	15	98	83.3%	5.0%	52.9%	5.4	-63	5.5	13.9
Cameron Dickerson	WR-Z	6'3, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	17	11	125	64.7%	4.7%	64.3%	7.4	-8	9.0	17.8
Kyle Prater	WR-X	6'5, 225	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	14	9	59	64.3%	3.9%	54.5%	4.2	-50	4.9	8.4
Treyvon Green	RB	5'10, 215	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	14	10	71	71.4%	3.9%	53.8%	5.1	-44	5.4	10.1
Mike Jensen	WR-Y				12	7	106	58.3%	3.3%	54.5%	8.8	17	8.1	15.1
Kain Colter	QB				7	3	16	42.9%	1.9%	0.0%	2.3	-30	1.8	2.3
Venric Mark	RB	5'8, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	7	5	62	71.4%	1.9%	71.4%	8.9	4	7.4	8.8
Stephen Buckley	RB	6'0, 180	So.	2 stars (5.4)	6	5	51	83.3%	1.7%	25.0%	8.5	-3	11.5	7.3
Mark Szott	SUPER	6'4, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Mike McHugh	WR-Y	6'3, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Andrew Scanlan	WR-H	6'2, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Jayme Taylor	SUPER	6'4, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Miles Shuler (Rutgers)	WR	5'10, 175	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)
Garrett Dickerson	SUPER	6'3, 235	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.5	3.23	2.95	41.1%	64.3%	17.8%	63.1	6.0%	11.7%
Rank	23	23	95	47	89	45	116	96	117

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Brandon Vitabile	C	6'3, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	38
Jack Konopka	LT	6'5, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	25
Paul Jorgensen	RT	6'6, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12
Geoff Mogus	LG	6'5, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11
Ian Park	RG	6'4, 295	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8
Matt Frazier	RG	6'4, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	4
Adam DePietro	LG	6'5, 285	So.	3 stars (5.6)	1
Shane Mertz	RT	6'8, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Hayden Baker	C	6'2, 290	Sr.	NR	0
Eric Olson	LT	6'6, 290	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Sam Coverdale	OL	6'6, 265	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Brad North	OL	6'2, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tommy Doles	OL	6'6, 270	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Blake Hance	OL	6'5, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

6. A dynamite line

This doesn't really help in terms of big plays in the passing game, but Northwestern should have one of the nation's better run-blocking fronts in 2014. The Wildcats ranked 23rd in Adj. Line Yards last fall despite the lack of a field stretcher, and the entire two-deep returns intact. That's three senior starters and seven players with starting experience (99 career starts).

Their pass protection numbers were awful, but a lot of that had to do with Colter managing to get sacked 16 times in 98 pass attempts, a Braxton Millerian sack rate. Siemian still got sacked six percent of the time, but his presence alone will make the sack rates drop. So could an efficient run game and lots of play-action opportunities.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.02	9	IsoPPP+	109.0	22
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.6%	93	Succ. Rt. +	94.2	80
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.9	70	Off. FP+	98.5	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	34	Redzone S&P+	106.9	37
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.3		ACTUAL	23.0	+1.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	89	67	80	77
RUSHING	68	57	66	38
PASSING	101	73	92	114
Standard Downs		63	80	17
Passing Downs		71	73	63

Q1 Rk	41	1st Down Rk	65
Q2 Rk	74	2nd Down Rk	104
Q3 Rk	70	3rd Down Rk	35
Q4 Rk	81

7. A little too much bending

Go back to the series of painful losses listed above. In multiple games, I used a phrase like "Despite allowing _ yards..." Perhaps the most frustrating part of the 2013 experience is that the defense performed well a majority of the time. Northwestern's No. 42 ranking in Def. F/+ was its best in the F/+ era (unit rankings go back to 2007), but both offense and special teams fell apart.

There's still room for improvement on the defensive side of the ball, however. While Northwestern ranked a strong 22nd in IsoPPP+ (big-play prevention), the efficiency numbers (80th in Success Rate+) were a little too far on the bend-don't-break side. The pass defense was mediocre, and if the pass rush didn't get to the quarterback on passing downs, opposing quarterbacks were able to make plays downfield.

The overall level of experience on this defense is pretty exciting and makes further improvement a possibility, but the cornerback position probably needs to make a few more plays on the ball.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.7	3.09	3.50	42.5%	71.4%	17.2%	98.2	3.8%	7.6%
Rank	77	85	84	103	90	89	63	81	49

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyler Scott	DE				12	41.0	5.7%	10.0	6.0	2	3	2	0
Dean Lowry	DE	6'6, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	11	27.5	3.8%	7.0	4.5	2	3	2	0
Chance Carter	DT	6'3, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	26.0	3.6%	5.0	2.0	0	5	0	0
Will Hampton	DT				12	17.0	2.4%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Deonte Gibson	DE	6'3, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	16.5	2.3%	7.0	3.0	0	2	0	0
Ifeadi Odenigbo	DE	6'3, 235	So.	4 stars (5.9)	12	8.0	1.1%	6.5	5.5	0	1	0	0
Max Chapman	DE	6'3, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	7.5	1.0%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Greg Kuhar	DT	6'3, 300	So.	4 stars (5.8)	6	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sean McEvilly	DT	6'5, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	6.5	0.9%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
C.J. Robbins	DT	6'5, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	2.0	0.3%	0.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Tyler Lancaster	DE	6'3, 250	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Ben Oxley	DL	6'6, 260	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

8. Stability in the middle?

The defensive end position was well-stocked in 2013, with Tyler Scott, Dean Lowry, Deonte Gibson, and former star recruit Ifeadi Odenigbo combining for 30.5 tackles for loss and 19 sacks. This allowed Northwestern to forego an overt amount of blitzing but still get a decent rush on the quarterback, and with three of the four ends returning in 2014, there's no reason to think this won't be the case again. Odenigbo needs to figure out how to contribute more than just sacks -- he had 5.5 sacks and just 8.0 overall tackles -- but his potential is obvious.

Defensive tackle depth was an issue, however. Greg Kuhar, another former four-star recruit, didn't earn playing time until the second half of the season, and Sean McEvilly battled injuries all year. That left basically two guys -- Chance Carter and Will Hampton -- to take most of the snaps. It's not surprising, then, that the fourth quarter was Northwestern's worst defensive quarter.

Hampton's gone, but if Kuhar and McEvilly can stay both healthy and dialed in, the defensive line should improve on last year's numbers overall.

Despite the loss of leading tackler Damien Proby, the linebacking corps is stocked with experience and play-making potential; Chi Chi Ariguzo and Collin Ellis combined for 11.5 tackles for loss, seven interceptions, and eight break-ups last year, and junior Drew Smith tossed in 4.5 TFLs in reserve duty. If the tackles can keep blockers off of them (and not wear down late in games), they'll make plays.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Damien Proby	MIKE				12	87.5	12.2%	5.0	1.0	1	2	2	0
Chi Chi Ariguzo	WILL	6'3, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	84.0	11.7%	6.0	2.0	4	2	1	1
Collin Ellis	MIKE	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	58.0	8.1%	5.5	0.5	3	6	0	0
Jimmy Hall	SAM	6'2, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	27.5	3.8%	0.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
Drew Smith	SAM	6'1, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	24.5	3.4%	4.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Timmy Vernon	MIKE				12	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jaylen Prater	MIKE	6'0, 235	So.	2 stars (5.4)	3	3.5	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Joseph Jones	WILL	6'1, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Anthony Walker	LB	6'1, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Traveon Henry	S	6'1, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	65.0	9.1%	4	0	1	1	0	0
Ibraheim Campbell	S	5'11, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	57.5	8.0%	2.5	1	4	5	0	0
Nick VanHoose	CB	6'0, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	49.5	6.9%	5	0	0	8	1	0
Matthew Harris	CB	5'11, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	29.0	4.1%	0	0	0	5	0	0
Dwight White	CB	5'10, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	20.5	2.9%	1	0	1	1	0	0
C.J. Bryant	CB				11	9.5	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Davion Fleming	S				11	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Jarrell Williams	CB	5'11, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	6	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Daniel Jones	CB	5'11, 175	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	1	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Terrance Brown	S	6'1, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)	4	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Keith Watkins II	CB	5'11, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Godwin Igwebuike	S	6'0, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Kyle Queiro	S	6'3, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Marcus McShepard	CB	5'11, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Parrker Westphal	CB	6'1, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

9. Potential and competition

Northwestern basically played five defensive backs in 2013. A sixth, corner Daniel Jones, was lost for the season with a knee injury in Week 1. That left a sophomore (Nick VanHoose) and two freshmen (Matthew Harris, Dwight White) to man the islands on the outside, and the result was predictable. The defense as a whole was solid and prevented big plays pretty well, but if there was a breakdown, it came in pass defense.

With Jones back and theoretically healthy this fall, that gives Northwestern a solid two-deep of options. VanHoose is a pretty exciting player (five TFLs, eight break-ups), and Harris and White are certainly decent, but depth at corner improves.

What about safety? Traveon Henry was a nice weapon in run support, and Ibraheim Campbell is one of the best ball-hawks in the Big Ten (2012-13: six interceptions, 17 break-ups), but the third-leading safety made only 5.5 tackles last year. Depth is a must if Northwestern is going to avoid springing leaks in the fourth quaarter, and recent impressive recruiting could help here. Two high-three-star redshirt freshmen enter the mix, as do two high-three-star corners and a four-star freshman.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Brandon Williams			58	36.0	5	22	17	67.2%
Chris Gradone	6'2, 190	Jr.	11	37.8	1	3	5	72.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jeff Budzien			65	61.3	21	1	32.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jeff Budzien			35-35	20-20	100.0%	3-5	60.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Matthew Harris	KR	5'11, 180	So.	21	23.0	0
Stephen Buckley	KR	6'0, 180	So.	6	18.5	0
Tony Jones	PR	6'0, 195	Sr.	9	7.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	72
Field Goal Efficiency	19
Punt Return Efficiency	66
Kick Return Efficiency	74
Punt Efficiency	113
Kickoff Efficiency	39
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	71

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	California	82
6-Sep	Northern Illinois	60
20-Sep	Western Illinois	NR
27-Sep	at Penn State	37
4-Oct	Wisconsin	15
11-Oct	at Minnesota	73
18-Oct	Nebraska	40
1-Nov	at Iowa	34
8-Nov	Michigan	32
15-Nov	at Notre Dame	25
22-Nov	at Purdue	108
29-Nov	Illinois	63

Five-Year F/+ Rk	2.3% (52)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	59
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	3 / 5.5
TO Luck/Game	-1.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	18 (10, 8)

10. The inevitable bounce back

It's almost too predictable to call Northwestern a favorite for a breakout in 2014, isn't it? And besides, wouldn't it be more of a breakback?

The Wildcats appear to be deeper on defense, which should guard against late-game issues, and they return virtually everybody from last year's offense, plus Venric Mark. If you think this makes them seven points per game better in 2014, then just look at what seven points could have done for last year's team. (Hint: it would have made them between about 7-5 and 9-3.)

Of course, seven points is a lot of improvement, and as with so many Big Ten teams, Northwestern's 2014 schedule features a glut of teams in the No. 25-50 range. They should start and finish well, winning the first three and last two games on the docket, but the middle seven games feature five teams projected between 25th and 40th, three on the road.

A return to a bowl game is quite likely, but to threaten 10 wins again, as they did in 2012 and were supposed to do in 2013, they'll need to get back that old close-game form (or luck). They'll need to prove that last year's breakdowns have forged better leadership and wisdom, and they'll need to prove that the union drama in recent months has done nothing to affect chemistry.

I like this team quite a bit, but it's hard to buy in entirely, isn't it?