The big 2014 Iowa football preview: Welcome back, Ferentzball

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. We know nothing

Iowa is in a bit of a tailspin at the moment. After playing decent football for the first half of the 2012 season, the Hawkeyes crumbled down the stretch and finished with their worst record since they went 3-9 in Ferentz's second season (2000). The football has grown stale in Iowa City, and it's safe to say the fans have noticed.

A coach less accomplished than Ferentz probably wouldn't have survived to coach another year after this downward trend. An athletic director less patient than Iowa's Gary Barta would probably be tightening the screws quite a bit. But as it stands, Barta seems pretty happy with Ferentz, and even if he wasn't, an incredible buyout would render him incapable of doing anything about it anyway.

So yeah, Ferentz will remain at Iowa for the foreseeable future. That's probably not a good thing, but it's not impossible for Ferentz to right the wrong kind of trend. For starters, he's done it once already. Iowa's 2010-12 span is strangely similar to that of 2005-07, and at the program's most uncertain point, the Hawkeyes made a lovely leap. And Oregon State made a similar recovery just last season, bouncing from 3-9, 88th, and hopeless in 2011 to 9-4 and 18th.

I wasn't exactly brimming with excitement about the prospects of Iowa football last summer, and with good reason. Ferentz was overseeing a program that had regressed in rather linear fashion for three straight seasons. The Hawkeyes' offense had gone from mediocre to terrible in 2012, and Ferentz tasked second-year coordinator Greg Davis, engineer of Texas' offensive collapse not too long ago, to rebuild it with a new quarterback, no standout receivers, and an offensive line that was missing a couple of key pieces.

Meanwhile, the defense had sunk from top-10 in Def. F/+ in 2008-09 and top-25 in 2010 to outside of the top 60 in 2012. The pass defense had been horrible for a couple of years, and new defensive coordinator Phil Parker hadn't figured out the right buttons to press just yet.

I asserted that Iowa needed a fast start to 2013 to have any hope of a bowl game, and the Hawkeyes began the season with a gut-wrenching last-second loss to Northern Illinois. Everything was pointed in the wrong direction.

And then Iowa won eight of its next 11 games, nearly fought LSU to a draw in the Outback Bowl on January 1, and finished ranked back in the F/+ top 30 for the first time in three years.

College football doesn't have to make sense. It's more fun, in fact, when it doesn't.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 29
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Northern Illinois	60	27-30	L	29.7 - 16.2	W
7-Sep	Missouri State	N/A	28-14	W	25.3 - 16.2	W
14-Sep	at Iowa State	78	27-21	W	22.2 - 27.6	L
21-Sep	Western Michigan	117	59-3	W	30.3 - 16.6	W
28-Sep	at Minnesota	55	23-7	W	32.3 - 13.2	W	10.0
5-Oct	Michigan State	6	14-26	L	28.9 - 24.3	W	8.2
19-Oct	at Ohio State	9	24-34	L	38.5 - 28.2	W	8.5
26-Oct	Northwestern	59	17-10	W	26.0 - 26.0	L	9.6
2-Nov	Wisconsin	19	9-28	L	20.5 - 18.3	W	7.3
9-Nov	at Purdue	114	38-14	W	38.6 - 27.2	W	5.7
23-Nov	Michigan	37	24-21	W	28.8 - 13.0	W	7.9
29-Nov	at Nebraska	39	38-17	W	29.5 - 19.6	W	7.9
1-Jan	vs. LSU	17	14-21	L	11.1 - 10.9	W	7.9

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+0.5%	60	+13.9%	14	+0.7%	52
Points Per Game	26.3	80	18.9	9
Adj. Points Per Game	27.8	71	19.8	7

2. Good from the start

In the end, even the NIU game was rather excusable -- NIU averaged only 5.3 yards per play and needed every bit of a plus-2 turnover margin to take the game. And after that loss, Iowa went 8-0 against teams ranked worse than 19th in the F/+ rankings. In the end, they played well enough to beat an average team (with an average number of breaks) in 11 of 13 games; they were lucky enough to play Iowa State and a snake-bitten Northwestern squad the two weeks they didn't.

The defense sagged in the middle of the year, but the offense picked up the pace a bit, and down the stretch, the defense looked almost as good as it ever has.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Iowa 28.0, Opponent 18.0 (plus-10.0)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Iowa 30.5, Opponent 24.8 (plus-5.7)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 3 games): Iowa 23.1, Opponent 14.5 (plus-8.6)

Perhaps the most Ferentzian part of the season: Iowa was better on the road than at home.

• Adj. Points Per Game (home): Iowa 32.2, Opponent 23.2 (plus-9.0)
• Adj. Points Per Game (road): Iowa 27.1, Opponent 18.7 (plus-8.4)

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.98	123	IsoPPP+	90.8	108
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.0%	65	Succ. Rt. +	100.9	56
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.0	54	Def. FP+	102.4	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.7	104	Redzone S&P+	103.4	46
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.3		ACTUAL	22	+3.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	85	66	57	73
RUSHING	51	70	56	39
PASSING	95	57	66	91
Standard Downs		65	62	105
Passing Downs		62	62	100

Q1 Rk	98	1st Down Rk	78
Q2 Rk	47	2nd Down Rk	59
Q3 Rk	57	3rd Down Rk	27
Q4 Rk	54

3. Mediocre is better than bad

Greg Davis didn't exactly fix the Iowa offense. We should start there. Iowa was still only marginally efficient and completely lacked in big-play ability. Interception rates were a little too high, and while a lot of this had to do with the quality of defense they faced, they still struggled to finish drives despite a run-heavy approach.

Still, the Hawkeyes were competent. They were pretty much average at everything -- 57th in Passing S&P+, 70th rushing, 65th on standard downs, 62nd on passing downs -- and despite average punting, they were quite strong in the field position game. They did their defense infinitely more favors than in the previous couple of seasons, and the defense took advantage.

Hell, the running backs even stayed reasonably healthy, which ... never mind, I've already said too much.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Jake Rudock

6'3, 205

Jr.

3 stars (5.6)

204

346

2383

18

13

59.0%

14

3.9%

6.5

C.J. Beathard

6'2, 195

So.

3 stars (5.6)

9

27

179

1

2

33.3%

1

3.6%

5.9

Nic Shimonek

6'4, 212

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

Tyler Wiegers

6'4, 215

Fr.

4 stars (5.8)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Mark Weisman	RB	6'0, 236	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	226	974	8	4.3	3.4	35.4%
Damon Bullock	RB	6'0, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	118	467	1	4.0	2.6	37.3%
Jordan Canzeri	RB	5'9, 192	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	74	481	2	6.5	4.4	54.1%
Jake Rudock	QB	6'3, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	53	271	1	5.1	3.9	39.6%
LeShun Daniels, Jr.	RB	6'0, 215	So.	3 stars (5.5)	36	142	0	3.9	1.9	38.9%
C.J. Beathard	QB	6'2, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	62	2	5.2	2.0	50.0%
Adam Cox	FB	5'11, 215	Jr.	NR	4	16	0	4.0	0.5	50.0%
Markel Smith	RB	5'11, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
C.J. Hilliard	RB	5'10, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

4. A loaded stable

From 2009-12, Iowa signed four four-star running backs. The success of Shonn Greene and the simple, run-heavy nature of the Iowa offense was a recruiting draw, and the Hawkeyes took advantage.

But four-star 2009 signee Brandon Wegher quit football, then showed up on Morningside College's roster last year. Marcus Coker, from the 2010 class, is to be a fifth-year senior for Stony Brook. Big Rodney Coe, a four-star "athlete" who played running back in high school and signed in 2011, ended up on the Iowa State defensive line and got kicked off the team this spring. And 2012 signee Greg Garmon got 38 carries as a true freshman, then fled.

In 2013, Iowa handed the ball to a trio of two-star backs, with reasonable success.

Attrition has been rough, but Mark Weisman, Damon Bullock, and Jordan Canzeri have now combined for 783 career carries and did at least a little bit with their opportunities in 2013. They combined to miss just one game, which was a miracle in and of itself, and all three return for 2014. Canzeri has shown the most explosiveness, and really, the Hawkeyes have one running back for every potential size requirement -- guys who want to be in Iowa City, no less!

Iowa has a couple of more highly touted backs coming in this fall and have shown that true freshmen will play if they're ready, but there's quite a pecking order in place.

While two starters are gone from the line, the Hawkeyes do still return all-conference tackle Brandon Scherff and three other former four-star recruits with starting experience. The line returns 62 career starts, and while it didn't necessarily open up holes upfield that well, it kept defenders out of the backfield, run or pass.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Kevonte Martin-Manley	WR	6'0, 205	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	67	40	388	59.7%	19.1%	45.5%	5.8	-116	6.0	50.1
Tevaun Smith	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	47	24	310	51.1%	13.4%	40.5%	6.6	-19	7.5	40.0
C.J. Fiedorowicz	TE				44	30	299	68.2%	12.5%	45.5%	6.8	-54	6.5	38.6
Damon Bullock	RB	6'0, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	31	20	173	64.5%	8.8%	51.6%	5.6	-69	5.5	22.3
Jake Duzey	TE	6'4, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	28	19	270	67.9%	8.0%	42.3%	9.6	46	10.6	34.8
Don Shumpert	WR				26	15	195	57.7%	7.4%	40.0%	7.5	3	6.8	25.2
Damond Powell	WR	5'11, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	24	12	291	50.0%	6.8%	45.0%	12.1	125	9.8	37.6
Jacob Hillyer	WR	6'4, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	21	11	135	52.4%	6.0%	33.3%	6.4	-14	5.8	17.4
Matt VandeBerg	WR	6'1, 170	So.	2 stars (5.4)	13	8	59	61.5%	3.7%	100.0%	4.5	-40	3.0	7.6
Ray Hamilton	TE	6'5, 252	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	8	95	72.7%	3.1%	62.5%	8.6	4	7.9	12.3
George Kittle	TE	6'4, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)	7	5	108	71.4%	2.0%	85.7%	15.4	50	11.4	13.9
Mark Weisman	RB	6'0, 236	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	7	5	41	71.4%	2.0%	100.0%	5.9	-17	3.8	5.3
Riley McCarron	WR	5'9, 182	So.	NR	4	3	11	75.0%	1.1%	75.0%	2.8	-23	2.0	1.4
Derrick Willies	WR	6'4, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jon Wisnieski	TE	6'5, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Derrick Mitchell, Jr.	WR	6'1, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Andre Harris	WR	6'0, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jay Scheel	WR	6'1, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

5. A big-play guy wouldn't hurt

After a sketchy start, quarterback Jake Rudock settled into his role as Iowa's starting quarterback. Granted, he struggled in the season finale against LSU (who doesn't?), but in the final 10 games of the regular season, he managed a passer rating of at least 127.8 eight times and never dipped below 138.5 on the road. That he did so without any major big-play threat was impressive.

Despite some strong play-action potential, Iowa's passing game didn't hit many homeruns. The top four targets combined to average a paltry 10.3 yards per catch and 6.2 yards per target. Of the 10 players with at least eight catches for the season, only two averaged more than 13 yards per catch, and that was mostly because of three specific catches: Jake Duzey caught an 85-yarder, and Damond Powell gained 128 yards in two September receptions (and had eight catches for 85 yards after September).

Duzey, Ray Hamilton, and George Kittle should assure that Iowa doesn't miss C.J. Fiedorowicz too much at tight end, but the receiver position is still rather subpar. Kevonte Martin-Manley is decent for a possession receiver, but really good possession receivers don't have 60 percent catch rates. If some explosive youngster emerges -- hello, four-star true freshman Jay Scheel -- that would be fantastic news. But it's unlikely.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.9	3.11	3.25	39.5%	69.6%	16.6%	141.2	3.8%	4.4%
Rank	56	42	66	64	60	23	29	41	28

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Brandon Scherff	LT	6'5, 320	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	23	1st All-Big Ten
Brett Van Sloten	RT				25	2nd All-Big Ten
Austin Blythe	C	6'3, 300	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	22
Conor Boffeli	LG				16
Jordan Walsh	RG	6'4, 290	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	14
Nolan MacMillan	LT				7
Andrew Donnal	RT	6'7, 305	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	3
Tommy Gaul	C	6'3, 277	Sr.	NR	0
Eric Simmons	RG	6'2, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Ryan Ward	LG	6'5, 290	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0
Mitch Keppy	RG	6'5, 295	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Cole Croston	RT	6'5, 250	So.	NR	0
Sean Welsh	LG	6'3, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Boone Myers	LT	6'5, 285	RSFr.	NR
Colin Goebel	OL	6'5, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Ike Boettger	OL	6'6, 267	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.97	5	IsoPPP+	115.1	8
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.7%	18	Succ. Rt. +	117.2	12
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.2	21	Off. FP+	105.5	9
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.1	57	Redzone S&P+	104.4	43
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.3		ACTUAL	21.0	+0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	6	10	12	10
RUSHING	19	7	13	6
PASSING	9	13	19	27
Standard Downs		8	17	5
Passing Downs		11	9	46

Q1 Rk	2	1st Down Rk	8
Q2 Rk	14	2nd Down Rk	7
Q3 Rk	24	3rd Down Rk	23
Q4 Rk	36

6. Beware injuries

It feels strange pointing out that Iowa kind of had good injury luck in a given season, but it appears that was the case last year. Iowa basically played six offensive linemen, three linebackers, and four defensive backs. The Hawkeyes almost got away with playing the same 11 defenders all year, and it worked well.

They surged back to a top-15 overall level, and aside from not quite making enough stops in the red zone, they were weakness-free. They were good on all downs (great on first and second), good in all quarters (great in the first and second), great at making offenses inefficient (12th in Success Rate+), great at creating good field position for the offense (which tends to go hand-in-hand with efficiency), and great at preventing big plays (eighth in IsoPPP+). One could potentially point to depth issues as the cause of their sink to 36th in Fourth Quarter S&P+, but that's still pretty good.

Playing the smallest possible number of players likely helps you in that given season. You've got your A-team out there intact (mostly), after all. But it can backfire the next season if there's attrition. Iowa must replace all three starting linebackers and half of its starting secondary, and if there are any sort of injury issues, you're pretty quickly dipping into what was the third-string pool in 2013.

Perhaps the players on last year's second string were just fine and will prove it this year. But the turnover, especially at linebacker, might make it difficult to match last year's ratings.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	117.6	2.73	2.89	35.2%	65.9%	22.2%	104.3	4.2%	7.7%
Rank	14	38	25	27	60	25	54	70	46

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Drew Ott	DE	6'4, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	36.0	5.2%	6.5	2.5	0	0	1	0
Louis Trinca-Pasat	DT	6'3, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	29.0	4.2%	9.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Carl Davis	DT	6'5, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	26.5	3.9%	4.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Mike Hardy	DE	6'5, 280	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	25.0	3.6%	5.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Dominic Alvis	DE				10	21.0	3.1%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Darian Cooper	DT	6'2, 280	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	13.0	1.9%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Nate Meier	DE	6'2, 244	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	5.0	0.7%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Jaleel Johnson	DT	6'4, 310	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Riley McMinn	DE	6'7, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Faith Ekakitie	DT	6'3, 287	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Brant Gressel	DT	6'2, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Matt Nelson	DE	6'8, 255	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. An Iowa D-line

There was no Adrian Clayborn on the 2013 Iowa defensive line, no Karl Klug, no Mitch King, no Christian Ballard. There were no outright stars or former four-star recruits in the primary rotation. No matter. Iowa still ranked seventh in Rushing S&P+ and 14th in Adj. Line Yards.

Five players from Iowa's six-man 2013 rotation return in 2014. Louis Trinca-Pasat might not be an outright star, but he's pretty damn good, and while the ends aren't much from a pass-rushing perspective, they stand up well to run-blocking. The line as a whole benefited from an active, experienced linebacking corps, and that will certainly not be the case this time around, but on the list of Major Iowa Concerns for 2014, defensive line is near the bottom, especially if four-star sophomore tackles Jaleel Johnson and Faith Ekaktie begin to play to potential.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Anthony Hitchens	WLB				13	83.0	12.1%	13.5	2.0	1	2	2	0
James Morris	MLB				13	79.0	11.5%	17.0	7.0	4	3	2	0
Christian Kirksey	OLB				13	75.5	11.0%	5.0	2.5	1	1	2	1
Quinton Alston	MLB	6'1, 232	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	8.5	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Travis Perry	OLB	6'3, 232	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	7.5	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Reggie Spearman	WLB	6'3, 230	So.	3 stars (5.7)	10	6.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Collins	LB				7	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Chad Gilson (N. Iowa)	MLB	6'1, 235	Sr.	NR
Cole Fisher	OLB	6'2, 233	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
John Kenny	OLB	6'2, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Josey Jewell	WLB	6'2, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Jameer Outsey	LB	6'3, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
John Lowdermilk	SS	6'2, 210	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	57.0	8.3%	4.5	0	1	2	0	0
Desmond King	CB	5'11, 190	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	56.5	8.2%	3	0	0	8	0	0
Tanner Miller	FS				13	53.0	7.7%	1	0	3	1	1	0
B.J. Lowery	CB				13	51.0	7.4%	1	0	3	16	3	0
Anthony Gair	FS	6'2, 200	So.	NR	13	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gavin Smith	DB				13	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Lomax	FS	5'10, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	9	4.5	0.7%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Nico Law	SS	6'1, 205	Sr.	NR	13	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Sean Draper	CB	6'0, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	9	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Greg Mabin	CB	6'2, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Maurice Fleming	CB	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Malik Rucker	CB	6'0, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Solomon Warfield	DB	6'0, 180	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Miles Taylor	DB	6'0, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Marcel Joly	DB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jalen Embry	DB	6'0, 184	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

8. Work to do in the back seven

Iowa's 2013 linebacking corps was simply awesome; from a stat perspective, it was one of the best of the Ferentz era. It's not surprising to see an Iowa front seven performing so well, but the level of success here was a bit of a surprise.

Unfortunately, all three starting linebackers are gone. Two of the three (Anthony Hitchens and Christian Kirksey) were picked in May's NFL Draft. The three combined for 35.5 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks, six interceptions, six breakups, and six forced fumbles last season -- good luck finding a unit much more productive than that; the top three returnees, meanwhile, combined for 22.0 tackles and zero of everything else.

Toss in the loss of cornerback B.J. Lowery, with his 19 passes defensed and three forced fumbles, and you've got grounds for concern.

There is quite a bit of youth and potential in the back seven, from sophomore corner Desmond King (one of the best freshman DBs in the country last year), to sophomore WLB Reggie Spearman, redshirt freshman OLB John Kenney, to redshirt freshman corner Malik Rucker. But in terms of experience, it's safety John Lowdermilk ... and that's about it. It's hard to worry too much about an Iowa defense that does still return Lowdermilk, King, and a good line, but it would be a pretty big surprise if the defense avoided regression altogether.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Connor Kornbrath	6'6, 240	Jr.	65	40.0	3	15	27	64.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Mike Meyer			68	61.7	30	0	44.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Mike Meyer			41-41	13-17	76.5%	3-5	60.0%
Marshall Koehn	6'0, 195	Jr.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jordan Cotton	KR			29	25.2	0
Jordan Canzeri	KR	5'9, 192	Jr.	3	15.0	0
Kevonte Martin-Manley	PR	6'0, 205	Sr.	20	15.7	2
Riley McCarron	PR	5'9, 182	So.	3	2.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	52
Field Goal Efficiency	69
Punt Return Efficiency	28
Kick Return Efficiency	37
Punt Efficiency	72
Kickoff Efficiency	88
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	115

9. Some good return men in the Big Ten

This is my eighth Big Ten team preview so far, and we've already discussed return men like Northwestern's Venric Mark (two touchdowns and a nearly 20-yard punt return average in 2012), Rutgers' Janarion Grant (two touchdowns in 2013 -- one via kickoff, one via punt), Illinois' V'Angelo Bentley (same as Grant), Minnesota's Marcus Jones (same as Grant and Bentley), Maryland's William Likely and Stefon Diggs, Purdue's Akeem Hunt and Raheem Mostert (one on kick return each), and Indiana's Shane Wynn (a 14-yard punt return average and one score).

Considering how few Big Ten offenses have shown serious, sustained big-play potential, there sure are a lot of athletes in B1G return units. (That, or there is a serious lack of potential among B1G cover units. Hmmm...)

Iowa is not the exception to the rule. Kevonte Martin-Manley may have averaged under 10 yards per catch in 2013, but he averaged 15.7 yards per punt return and took two back for scores. He and punter Connor Kornbrath should assure that Iowa's special teams numbers are at least decent again.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Northern Iowa	NR
6-Sep	Ball State	77
13-Sep	Iowa State	80
20-Sep	at Pittsburgh	39
27-Sep	at Purdue	108
11-Oct	Indiana	47
18-Oct	at Maryland	51
1-Nov	Northwestern	50
8-Nov	at Minnesota	73
15-Nov	at Illinois	63
22-Nov	Wisconsin	15
28-Nov	Nebraska	40

Five-Year F/+ Rk	11.5% (27)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	54
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / 2.0
TO Luck/Game	-1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (8, 6)

10. A good team and a blah schedule

It's an odd time to be an Iowa fan. Disillusionment reigned after three years of diminishing returns and a thud of a 2012 season, but the bounceback was both surprising and forceful in 2013. And if Iowa's winning, then all other concerns are secondary.

Still, the Hawkeyes are pretty much the poster boys of another kind of disillusionment: the kind related to conference realignment and television.

The BTN has somehow made it more difficult for Iowa fans to see their teams, worsened the experience of watching the teams both on television and in the stadium, and eliminated somewhat-frequent games with centure-long rivals. And while the increased volume of television time has worked to the benefit of bluebloods like Ohio State and Michigan, it has only bastardized the fan experience for Iowa fans. [...]

Despite the fact that it has enough dead space to air weeks-old replays of the Jesse Owens Invitational (on BTN Tuesday night) and the Big Ten Women's Golf Championship (airing three times over the next 24 hours), the BTN apparently has not found time to broadcast the Iowa spring game, played last weekend. There are three different Ohio State football games on the network today, all of which are less relevant than the spring games of the teams relegated to the streaming service. [...]

The expansion to 14 teams means that Iowa will go two consecutive seasons without playing Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, or Penn State, as the Hawkeyes instead enter a home-and-home with the mighty Terrapins. It might be terrible for strength of schedule, but look at all of those shiny Washington televisions!

The recent "Big Ten and ACC teams scheduling non-conference games within the conference" discussion was silly for about 38 different reasons, but ... it really is kind of dumb that Iowa and Michigan aren't going to play very often.

Again, wins matter the most, and even with some regression expected on defense, Iowa's got one of the weaker slates in the Big Ten: only one opponent is projected in the top 20 (Wisconsin comes to Iowa City), two others are in the top 40 (barely), and only three others are in the top 60. With another top-30 or top-35 team, the Hawkeyes could win nine or 10 games, and even if it comes against a schedule with quite a few foreign names, I can't imagine fans will complain too much, no matter how strange it feels.

(But seriously, BTN, show every spring game as promptly as possible. That's ridiculous.)

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