The big 2014 UCF football preview: Knights are at a different level

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Watch the throne

There have been setbacks, of course. In 2006, after an 8-5 breakthrough, UCF went 4-8. The Knights bounced to 10-4, then dropped to 4-8. They went 19-8 in 2009-10, then lost six one-possession games and fell to 5-7. But the slope was positive. Each time UCF improved under George O'Leary, the bar got raised. And in the last two years, the setbacks have been minimal, and the bar has only gone higher.

Since the start of 2012, O'Leary's squad has gone 22-5. The Knights have lost to Ohio State, Missouri, and South Carolina and are 22-2 against everybody else. They won at Louisville and Penn State, thumped Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, and finished 12-1 in 2013. They not only ended the season in the polls for the second time ever, they finished 10th.

So is this where we see another setback? UCF has to replace a quarterback who's likely to go in the top 10 of the NFL Draft. An 1,100-yard rusher, three all-conference offensive linemen, and a strong defensive tackle are also gone. Plus, the Knights were 7-1 in one-possession games a year ago, which is unsustainable. UCF has been at one extreme or the other in close games recently, and that could very easily skew in the other direction with a new quarterback.

Still, the receiving corps is loaded for the new quarterback, and the defense returns almost everybody from the two-deep. UCF could offset offensive regression with defensive progression. There are former three- and four-star recruits in every unit on both sides of the ball. The Knights have a couple of questions to answer, but they will start 2014 on a different tier from everybody else in the conference.

UCF might not have been the best team in the conference last season -- for the season as a whole, the numbers say that was still Louisville, which finished 12th in the F/+ rankings to UCF's 21st -- but the Knights are now far and away the most proven, accomplished, well-established program in the new AAC. George O'Leary has not only brought a high level of success to Orlando, he's also built the foundation of the program in a slow, steady fashion. There just aren't many holes to fill here.

2. It still took some good fortune

I'm very, very high on UCF as a program, and I think the 2014 Knights won't fall very far, if at all, despite the loss of Blake Bortles, Storm Johnson, and company. But while I have them in a tier of their own in this conference, they're only a step ahead of teams like Cincinnati, ECU, and Houston, not leaps and bounds.

While they beat Penn State, Louisville, and Baylor, they did still need late, improbable heroics to beat Memphis (two fumble recovery touchdowns in the last three minutes) and Temple (10 points in the final 66 seconds, seven of which came off of this ridiculous catch). They did need a late goal line stand to beat Houston. They did need a fourth-quarter comeback to fend off listless USF.

They saved their best performances for the best teams on the schedule, but there were still weaknesses here, and playing to your level of competition is certainly a good way to get upset. This has certainly been an O'Leary trait through the years. In 2012, UCF fought well before falling to 12-0 Ohio State, then sleepwalked through a 13-point win over 3-9 FIU. In 2011, the Knights barely lost to 12-2 Southern Miss, then slipped up to 5-7 ECU. In 2010, UCF barely lost to 9-4 N.C. State, then plodded through an uninspiring win over 2-10 Buffalo.

Saving your best for the best teams inserts quite a bit of volatility and unpredictability, and unpredictable teams don't always make for good favorites.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-1 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 21
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	Akron	108	38-7	W	41.7 - 20.3	W
6-Sep	at Florida International	125	38-0	W	29.0 - 15.8	W
14-Sep	at Penn State	61	34-31	W	46.2 - 36.0	W
28-Sep	South Carolina	10	25-28	L	39.3 - 26.7	W
5-Oct	at Memphis	83	24-17	W	24.7 - 35.0	L	9.4
18-Oct	at Louisville	12	38-35	W	61.0 - 33.0	W	10.7
26-Oct	Connecticut	93	62-17	W	44.6 - 19.5	W	13.1
9-Nov	Houston	46	19-14	W	36.2 - 25.8	W	13.2
16-Nov	at Temple	98	39-36	W	41.2 - 37.1	W	11.5
21-Nov	Rutgers	91	41-17	W	35.8 - 16.6	W	17.4
29-Nov	South Florida	99	23-20	W	28.5 - 29.2	L	11.6
7-Dec	at SMU	84	17-13	W	28.3 - 21.5	W	8.0
1-Jan	vs. Baylor	7	52-42	W	54.5 - 23.1	W	12.2

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+16.4%	13	+5.2%	38	+2.2%	23
Points Per Game	34.6	30	21.3	17
Adj. Points Per Game	39.3	8	26.1	52

3. Big in big moments

When you avoid those upset bids, though, best-against-best can make for a pretty memorable season. UCF survived duds against Memphis and USF, got past some bad breaks against Houston and Temple, and put itself in a position to win the AAC. And with the conference title on the line, the Knights played their best ball of the season.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): UCF 36.2, Opponent 24.7 (plus-11.5)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): UCF 47.3, Opponent 26.1 (plus-21.2)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): UCF 33.5, Opponent 26.1 (plus-7.4)

The offense came and went in 2013, while the defense was mostly steady. In 2014, the onus will be on the defense to raise its game to account for what might be a bit more inconsistency -- well, the same inconsistency with a lower baseline -- from the offense.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	20	IsoPPP+	108.2	26
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.3%	13	Succ. Rt. +	121.5	7
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.6	11	Def. FP+	103.4	21
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	37	Redzone S&P+	104.6	41
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.6		ACTUAL	21	+1.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	40	9	7	17
RUSHING	75	7	9	29
PASSING	25	13	7	27
Standard Downs		21	19	30
Passing Downs		4	2	26

Q1 Rk	10	1st Down Rk	19
Q2 Rk	22	2nd Down Rk	2
Q3 Rk	7	3rd Down Rk	31
Q4 Rk	13

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Blake Bortles				259	382	3581	25	9	67.8%	21	5.2%	8.5
Justin Holman	6'4, 206	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	14	75	1	1	64.3%	0	0.0%	5.4
Pete DiNovo	6'1, 207	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tyler Harris	6'4, 218	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

4. More than Bortles

Blake Bortles is a really good quarterback. It confused me to see him linked to the No. 1 pick in the draft -- in two-plus years of watching him play, I never thought I was looking at a top-five caliber draft pick -- but while you could occasionally pressure him into a poor decision, they were few and far between, especially in his junior season. He completed more than two-thirds of his passes while averaging nearly 14 yards per completion, and again, he raised his game at key moments: He was 21-for-32 for 250 yards against Louisville, 20-for-27 for 288 against Penn State, 20-for-31 for 301 against Baylor, and even 25-for-36 for 358 in the lone loss to South Carolina. Interceptions were problematic against S.C. and Baylor, but he was a very good college quarterback. There's no doubting that.

Still, he wasn't the sole reason for UCF's success. First of all, he had one hell of a line protecting him. UCF's offensive line did wonderful jobs in both short-yardage run blocking and passing-downs pass blocking and, as mentioned above, featured three all-conference performers. Plus, Bortles got to share the backfield with two fun backs, Storm Johnson and William Stanback. And he had one of the nation's deepest receiving corps at his disposal.

The next quarterback inherits pieces of that, as we'll discuss below. But who will be the starting quarterback? Sophomore Justin Holman ... probably. He was the first-stringer at the end of spring ball, but he didn't dominate, and O'Leary didn't officially name him the starter. He'll have to continue fending off redshirt freshman Pete DiNovo and true freshman Tyler Harris into the fall. The lanky Holman didn't get many opportunities in 2013, but he did complete nine of his 14 passes and did get to the second level of the defense for a couple of solid runs.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Storm Johnson	RB				213	1139	14	5.3	6.4	35.2%
William Stanback	RB	5'11, 221	So.	2 stars (5.2)	105	443	6	4.2	4.7	32.4%
Blake Bortles	QB				66	420	6	6.4	5.2	54.5%
Rannell Hall	WR	6'1, 196	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	14	121	1	8.6	4.2	71.4%
Dontravious Wilson	RB	5'10, 212	So.	2 stars (5.4)	9	10	0	1.1	1.5	11.1%
Justin Holman	QB	6'4, 206	So.	3 stars (5.5)	7	40	0	5.7	10.6	28.6%
Micah Reed	RB	5'10, 206	So.	3 stars (5.6)	7	13	0	1.9	3.0	28.6%
Jeff Godfrey	WR				6	64	0	10.7	21.5	33.3%
Cedric Thompson	RB	6'0, 226	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	5	17	0	3.4	2.0	40.0%
C.J. Jones	RB	5'10, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. Whither the run game?

Despite the loss of Bortles, I'm a lot more worried about the run than the pass in 2014. The line is starting over, albeit with a two-year starting tackle in Torrian Wilson and a wealth of former three-star recruits. Johnson is gone, too, which means the training wheels are off for Stanback, who had huge moments against Louisville and Houston but was pretty inefficient for much of the year.

There are quite a few candidates for breakthroughs here, guys who could easily make us feel silly for doubting the run. Sophomore running back Micah Reed came to Orlando with a pretty nice pedigree, and incoming three-star freshman C.J. Jones could provide depth. And while you cannot assume the same level of competence up front, the sophomore class features four former three-star recruits who, if they're not ready for big-time play in 2014, could be there by 2015.

There are so many sophomores involved in the ground game that one really does assume great things for 2015-16. This coming season, however, is still a question mark.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Rannell Hall	WR	6'1, 196	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	78	57	886	73.1%	20.3%	60.3%	11.4	237	10.8	151.9
J.J. Worton	WR	6'2, 211	Sr.	NR	68	47	721	69.1%	17.7%	60.3%	10.6	172	10.0	123.6
Jackie Williams (UAB 2012)	WR	5'11, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	80	52	799	65.0%	17.6%	62.5%	10.0	N/A	9.9	94.1
Breshad Perriman	WR	6'2, 209	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	63	39	811	61.9%	16.4%	55.7%	12.9	329	12.7	139.0
Jeff Godfrey	WR				63	43	406	68.3%	16.4%	61.8%	6.4	-100	6.3	69.6
Josh Reese	WR	6'0, 184	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	36	21	252	58.3%	9.4%	44.4%	7.0	-16	7.4	43.2
Storm Johnson	RB				34	30	260	88.2%	8.9%	61.3%	7.6	-54	6.9	44.6
William Stanback	RB	5'11, 221	So.	2 stars (5.2)	19	15	186	78.9%	4.9%	61.1%	9.8	21	10.7	31.9
Justin Tukes	TE	6'5, 257	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	17	13	116	76.5%	4.4%	56.3%	6.8	-29	6.5	19.9
Kevin Miller	TE	6'4, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	4	2	18	50.0%	1.0%	100.0%	4.5	-10	3.3	3.1
Taylor Oldham	WR	6'1, 199	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Blake Davis	TE	6'3, 243	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Mario Mathis	HB	6'1, 234	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tre'Quan Smith	WR	6'3, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

6. All the wideouts you need

J.J. Worton, purveyor of the best catch you saw last season (against Temple), was actually UCF's No. 2 receiver. That alone says quite a bit. Worton, No. 1 Rannell Hall, and No. 3 Breshad Perriman all averaged at least 10.6 yards per target in 2013, and former four-star recruit Josh Reese pitched in a decent 7.0.

Stanback proved threatening out of the backfield, tight end Justin Tukes caught three-quarters of the passes thrown his way, and any of four three-star youngsters could be ready to break into the rotation in 2014. Oh yeah, and transfer Jackie Williams, who led UAB in receiving in 2012, should easily replace the production and potential of departed Jeff Godfrey.

This receiving corps is loaded; it helped Bortles evidently turn into a top-10 prospect, and it should ease the transition for Holman or whoever lands the job as Bortles' replacement. The biggest question for the offense is simply whether the run game, seventh-best in the country last year according to Rushing S&P+, is capable of keeping UCF out of too many obvious passing situations.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	115.5	2.65	4.27	37.9%	76.1%	22.3%	113.8	7.4%	1.3%
Rank	11	105	4	81	20	110	53	111	3

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Justin McCray	RG				32	1st All-AAC
Jordan McCray	LG				28	1st All-AAC
Chris Martin	RT				28	2nd All-AAC
Torrian Wilson	LT	6'3, 308	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	29
Joey Grant	C	6'2, 291	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	14
Tarik Cook	RG	6'2, 294	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	2
Kelly Davison	RT				0
Chester Brown	RT	6'5, 325	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Michael Campbell	LT	6'5, 280	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Kelly Parfitt	LG	6'5, 312	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Colby Watson	RG	6'4, 302	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Tate Hernly	LG	6'2, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Lance McDowdell	OL	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Chavis Dickey	OL	6'4, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	81	IsoPPP+	100.2	57
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.4%	40	Succ. Rt. +	96.4	69
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.2	23	Off. FP+	99.5	68
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	54	Redzone S&P+	88.2	92
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	28.0		ACTUAL	26.0	-2.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	29	75	69	54
RUSHING	16	106	97	73
PASSING	77	38	43	35
Standard Downs		50	65	29
Passing Downs		101	97	93

Q1 Rk	39	1st Down Rk	18
Q2 Rk	59	2nd Down Rk	94
Q3 Rk	89	3rd Down Rk	105
Q4 Rk	74

7. Opponents played to UCF's strengths

Heading into last season, UCF had to replace the top three linemen, two of the top three linebackers, and three of the top five defensive backs from a unit that ranked a decent 42nd in Def. F/+. It was reasonable to expect regression, but instead, the Knights improved to 38th.

That alone says pretty exciting things about 2014; this time around, UCF returns four of five up front, four of five at linebacker, and basically all of last year's secondary. Experience alone could make this a top-30 defense.

Opponents did UCF a favor last year, however: they passed a lot. As was the case in 2012, the Knights were much better defending the pass than the run, but a combination of UCF leads and opponent tendencies (there were certainly quite a few pass-first teams on the schedule) meant that the Knights spent a disproportionate amount of time defending what they defend the best. If the UCF offense struggles a bit more this fall, that could change.

UCF's run defense was confusing in 2013. As you see below, the Knights ranked fourth in Power Success Rate (short-yardage success) and fifth in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line of scrimmage), but they ranked 106th in Rushing S&P+. How does this happen? First, Power Success Rate and Stuff Rate are not adjusted for opponent, and outside of South Carolina, Louisville, and Baylor, UCF didn't play against many good offenses. Second, UCF took quite a few risks up front, and when the Knights weren't making a stop behind the line, they were allowing a solid chunk of yardage.

Again, experience will help. Tackle E.J. Dunston and linebacker Sean Maag are gone; they combined for 7.5 non-sack tackles for loss. But everybody else from the front seven is back, including tackles Demetris Anderson and Jaryl Mamea. At the very least, the run defense shouldn't be any worse, and the odds of improvement are good.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	91.5	2.88	3.33	41.2%	52.8%	25.9%	86.3	3.6%	7.6%
Rank	98	50	68	85	4	5	90	88	49

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
E.J. Dunston	DT				12	32.5	4.8%	6.5	3.0	0	3	0	0
Thomas Niles	DE	6'2, 270	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	22.0	3.2%	8.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Demetris Anderson	DT	6'2, 304	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	19.0	2.8%	7.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Miles Pace	DE	6'2, 247	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	8	12.0	1.8%	4.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Jaryl Mamea	DT	6'1, 273	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	11.0	1.6%	4.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Blake Keller	DE				4	7.5	1.1%	4.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Seyvon Lowry	DE	6'3, 236	So.	3 stars (5.6)	6	6.5	1.0%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Deion Green	DE	6'1, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	6	5.5	0.8%	2.0	2.0	0	1	0	0
Deondre Barnett	DE	6'2, 221	So.	2 stars (5.4)	6	4.5	0.7%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Rob Sauvao	DT	6'2, 276	Sr.	NR
Luke Adams	DE	6'4, 260	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Tony Guerad	DT	6'3, 296	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Stanley Sylverain	DE	6'1, 232	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Jamiyus Pittman	DT	6'2, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Terrance Plummer	MLB	6'1, 241	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	86.0	12.6%	8.5	2.5	2	6	2	0
Sean Maag	OLB				13	63.0	9.2%	4.0	0.0	2	2	0	0
Troy Gray	OLB	6'1, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	48.0	7.0%	4.0	1.0	2	4	1	0
Justin McDonald	OLB	6'2, 211	So.	2 stars (5.4)	9	24.5	3.6%	4.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Michael Easton	OLB	5'11, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	23.0	3.4%	2.0	0.0	0	0	2	0
Willie Mitchell	LB	6'0, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	2	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chequan Burkett	LB	6'1, 212	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)	4	5.5	0.8%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Domenic Spencer	LB	5'10, 231	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	2.5	0.4%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Maurice Russell	LB	5'11, 239	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Mark Rucker	LB	5'9, 216	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Errol Clarke	LB	6'3, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Clayton Geathers	SS	6'2, 207	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	82.0	12.0%	4.5	0	2	10	2	0
Jordan Ozerities	CB	5'10, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	50.5	7.4%	4.5	1	1	6	0	0
Brandon Alexander	FS	6'2, 191	Sr.	NR	13	49.5	7.2%	3	1	3	7	1	0
Jacoby Glenn	CB	6'0, 176	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	45.5	6.7%	3	2	2	15	2	0
Drico Johnson	FS	6'2, 206	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	10.5	1.5%	0	0	0	1	1	1
Sean Beckton	CB	5'10, 184	Sr.	NR	11	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Killings	CB	5'10, 180	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	CB	6'1, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	8	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Jared Henry	SS	5'11, 201	So.	3 stars (5.5)	3	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brendin Straubel	DB	5'9, 189	Jr.	NR	8	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Gibson	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Chris Williams	DB	6'2, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Mike Rogers	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. But seriously, don't pass on this team

Even if the run defense improves, you should probably still take your chances on the ground. The secondary was dominant last year despite a sketchy pass rush, and everybody's back this fall, from safeties Clayton Geathers and Brandon Alexander (combined: 7.5 tackles for loss, five interceptions, 17 break-ups), to corners Jordan Ozerities and Jacoby Glenn (combined: 7.5 tackles for loss, three interceptions, 21 break-ups). Plus, three very highly touted freshmen join the mix as well, including four-star signee Kyle Gibson.

The linebacking corps was active in pass defense, too. It's hard to say with confidence that the pass rush will improve much, but this will be a top-40 pass defense despite it. Any sort of pressure, and this becomes an elite unit.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Caleb Houston	6'2, 206	So.	41	42.2	5	7	12	46.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Sean Galvin	6'3, 221	Sr.	74	62.8	23	1	31.1%
Shawn Moffitt	5'11, 178	Sr.	11	56.9	1	0	9.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Shawn Moffitt	5'11, 178	Sr.	49-49	20-21	95.2%	1-2	50.0%
Rodrigo Quirarte	6'1, 195	Sr.	4-4	0-0	N/A	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Rannell Hall	KR	6'1, 196	Sr.	29	23.8	0
William Stanback	KR	5'11, 205	So.	11	19.8	0
J.J. Worton	PR	6'2, 211	Sr.	13	12.1	0
Jeff Godfrey	PR			3	8.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	23
Field Goal Efficiency	17
Punt Return Efficiency	81
Kick Return Efficiency	44
Punt Efficiency	87
Kickoff Efficiency	2
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	90

9. Acing the kicking game

UCF's special teams unit wasn't without flaws in 2013; punter Caleb Houston outkicked his coverage from time to time, and punt returns weren't incredibly consistent.

But between Shawn Moffitt's place-kicking and the coverage associated with Sean Galvin's kickoffs, UCF was just fine in this regard. Moffitt was automatic inside 40 yards (and limited outside of 40), and while Galvin only kicked touchbacks 31 percent of the time, UCF was second in the country in Kickoff Efficiency. Opponents averaged just 20.3 yards per return, and Galvin seemed to master the art of a high kickoff fielded just outside the goal line.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	vs. Penn State	38
13-Sep	at Missouri	31
20-Sep	Bethune-Cookman	NR
2-Oct	at Houston	41
9-Oct	BYU	32
18-Oct	Tulane	90
25-Oct	Temple	87
1-Nov	at Connecticut	86
14-Nov	Tulsa	64
22-Nov	SMU	74
28-Nov	at South Florida	77
4-Dec	at East Carolina	72

Five-Year F/+ Rk	8.3% (36)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	73
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	5 / 8.3
TO Luck/Game	-1.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (6, 9)

10. Business up front, party in the back

When you've got a new quarterback, the optimal situation might be to start the season with a couple of cupcake games to work out the kinks, then jump into the meat of the schedule. UCF does not have that luxury. Someone -- probably Justin Holman, maybe not -- will be making his first start against Penn State in Dublin. Two weeks later, he'll be making his second start on the road against defending SEC East champion Missouri. After an FCS tune-up, his fourth start could come on the road against what might be UCF's toughest AAC competition, Houston. Survive the first half of the season, however, and the wins should flow later on, at least until Thanksgiving.

UCF won't be falling to 5-7 even if quarterback play is sketchy, but the schedule does the Knights no favors, both because of the tough start and because of road games against both Houston and ECU.

Some bad breaks in close games and a road loss or two could doom them in the AAC title race, but make no mistake: O'Leary has built this program for the long haul. The Knights are in better shape from top to bottom, and have more proven pieces, than anybody in the league. They recruit pretty well, they develop, they play good defense even with minimal experience, and they simply have more athleticism than anybody else.

Will the Knights take a step backwards in 2014? Sure, maybe. But even if they do, they'll probably be the odds-on favorite to win the league in 2015, 2016, and beyond.