The big 2014 Cincinnati football preview: Don't bother setting expectations

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1. Tuberville'd

Tommy Tuberville has been an FBS head coach for 18 seasons -- four at Ole Miss, 10 at Auburn, three at Texas Tech, and one at Cincinnati. Through these nearly two decades, the 59-year-old Southern Arkansas grad has thoroughly, systematically taken apart any possible way to get a read on him. His teams start slow and finish fast one year, then start fast and finish slow the next. They enter a season with no expectations and surge up the rankings, then they start a season with elite expectations and crumble.

At Auburn, his Tigers twice began the season unranked and finished in the top 20. They also twice began the season in the top 10 and finished unranked. In 2003, they collapsed from No. 6 in the preseason to 8-5; in 2004, they began the season 17th and went 13-0.

At Texas Tech, his Red Raiders went to Norman and upset No. 3 Oklahoma, ending a long conference home winning streak for the Sooners; the next week, Tech lost at home to Iowa State by 34.

Tuberville is 6-3 all-time against top-five opponents but loses (or nearly loses) at least one completely dumbfounding game per year. Recent highlights: USF 26, Cincinnati 20 in 2013; Iowa State 41, Texas Tech 7 in 2011; Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2 in 2008 (a "win," but...).

He openly defies all expectations, good or bad. It's best to not have any expectations at all, but in my chosen field of work, that's hard to do. By nature, I set bars. Still, I should have known better than to call a Tuberville team "the country's most underrated program" in last year's preview. Despite his Tubervillian tendencies, and despite his offensive coordinator's non-committal approach to offensive style in the offseason (pro-style! tempo! spread! multiple!), I dived in and predicted that Cincinnati would challenge, and perhaps even surpass, conference favorite Louisville in 2013.

Predictably, then, Cincinnati absolutely tanked at the beginning of the season. The Bearcats got romped by Illinois, barely inched by a dreadful Miami (Ohio) team, and figured out a way to allow 20 points and lose to a USF team that couldn't score in 2013. As Louisville began to look more and more dominant, I began to feel dumber and dumber.

And then, of course, as soon as any semblance of expectations were off the table, the Bearcats actually became a pretty good team. They destroyed the AAC's lesser teams as one is supposed to do (and as other heavyweights like UCF routinely couldn't) -- average score against Temple, UConn, Memphis, and Rutgers: Cincy 41, Opponent 19. They won at Houston as the Cougars were seemingly peaking. And then they almost felled one-loss Louisville in the regular season finale.

And then they got destroyed by 6-6 North Carolina in the Belk Bowl, because of course they did.

The 2013 season was seemingly all of Tuberville's career in a 13-game package, from the lapses to the out-of-nowhere elite play. And even the final result was strange: a nine-win season from a team ranked 64th in the F/+ rankings (for reference, 7-5 Toledo was 62nd, 5-7 Indiana 56th).

There's just enough potential on Tuberville's second Cincy squad that you can talk yourself into the Bearcats winning nine or 10 games again if you're so inclined, especially against a schedule that features only one team projected higher than 37th. Meanwhile, there are just enough question marks -- quarterback, to name one -- to make you extremely queasy if you get a little too bullish. Good luck picking a side.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 64
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Purdue	114	42-7	W	26.3 - 24.3	W
7-Sep	at Illinois	71	17-45	L	23.1 - 35.1	L
14-Sep	Northwestern State	N/A	66-9	W	43.4 - 21.5	W
21-Sep	at Miami (Ohio)	123	14-0	W	15.7 - 5.6	W
5-Oct	at South Florida	99	20-26	L	26.7 - 28.8	L	4.0
11-Oct	Temple	98	38-20	W	32.2 - 30.8	W	3.9
19-Oct	Connecticut	93	41-16	W	47.0 - 34.1	W	8.8
30-Oct	at Memphis	83	34-21	W	34.9 - 21.4	W	7.2
9-Nov	SMU	84	28-25	W	34.2 - 40.8	L	3.8
16-Nov	at Rutgers	91	52-17	W	48.7 - 23.2	W	9.3
23-Nov	at Houston	46	24-17	W	34.2 - 12.9	W	13.3
5-Dec	Louisville	12	24-31	L	44.7 - 23.3	W	15.0
28-Dec	vs. North Carolina	38	17-39	L	26.8 - 22.8	W	13.1

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+2.3%	53	+2.0%	52	-5.7%	123
Points Per Game	32.1	47	21.0	14
Adj. Points Per Game	33.7	27	25.0	36

2. Peaking after it mattered

Despite the clunkers, there were at least a few encouraging early signs in 2013. The offense dominated Northwestern State as an upper-half FBS offense should, and the defense played at an above-average (or much better) level for three of the first four games. Still, Cincinnati was at best average over the first two-thirds of the year. And as the offense got its bearings, the defense lapsed.

Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Cincinnati 27.0, Opponent 23.1 (plus-3.9)
Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Cincinnati 37.1, Opponent 31.8 (plus-5.3)
Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Cincinnati 38.6, Opponent 20.6 (plus-18.0)

Even including the miserable bowl performance (which looked worse than it probably was, because of special teams), Cincinnati was a very good team over the final third of the season. That the Bearcats managed to look great while still going just 2-2 down the stretch may have been a bit Tubervillian, but there are certainly some signs of sustainable growth, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.09	89	IsoPPP+	100.1	60
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.5%	20	Succ. Rt. +	100.0	63
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.3	19	Def. FP+	98.4	76
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	66	Redzone S&P+	95.6	81
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.5		ACTUAL	28	+6.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	23	58	64	48
RUSHING	67	84	67	76
PASSING	18	44	54	31
Standard Downs		79	77	95
Passing Downs		25	41	18

Q1 Rk	76	1st Down Rk	77
Q2 Rk	57	2nd Down Rk	28
Q3 Rk	68	3rd Down Rk	32
Q4 Rk	11

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Brendon Kay				260	393	3289	22	12	66.2%	15	3.7%	7.7
Munchie Legaux	6'5, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	30	51	382	2	3	58.8%	2	3.8%	7.0
Jordan Luallen				8	11	129	2	1	72.7%	0	0.0%	11.7
Jarred Evans	6'2, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Gunner Kiel	6'4, 208	So.	5 stars (6.1)
Hayden Moore	6'3, 193	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

3. Remember me?

At one point or another last offseason, offensive coordinator Eddie Gran proclaimed to be willing to dabble in basically every offensive style this side of the flexbone. It was hard to get a read on what his true intentions were, but when quarterback Munchie Legaux was injured and lost for the year against Illinois and Brendon Kay officially took over as the starter, Gran leaned on what made Kay the most comfortable. For the season, Cincinnati's was a slightly pass-first offense with a reasonably high pace. This made sense, not only because of Kay's capabilities but because Cincy's passing game was pretty far ahead of its running game.

Kay ended up putting together a pretty decent senior campaign, but he's gone now. Legaux got an extra year of eligibility and could be completely healthy by fall, but it appears he might struggle to surpass an old name looking to become Cincy's new starter.

Notre Dame transfer Gunner Kiel, who has thus far been known primarily because of his recruitment -- a five-star signal caller from Columbus, Ind., he committed to Indiana and new coach Kevin Wilson, then switched to LSU, then enrolled at Notre Dame. Facing years of serving as Everett Golson's backup, however, he transferred. It's been nearly three years since he first committed to Indiana, and he has yet to take a snap on the field, but the time could be coming. His first spring at Cincinnati wasn't amazing, but he finished it on a high note: 17-for-22 for 300 yards in the spring game.

With Kiel in the backfield, Gran could shift a bit away from pace and spread and more toward a "pro-style" attack (from now on, I'm putting "pro-style" in quotes, because it's impossible to figure out what it means anymore) with more reads and, in theory, a more plodding tempo. But there's no question that if Kiel begins to live up to five-star hype, Cincinnati's ceiling gets much, much higher.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
RD Abernathy IV	RB	5'7, 161	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	132	511	5	3.9	3.7	32.6%
Hosey Williams	RB	5'9, 199	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	115	655	4	5.7	5.7	41.7%
Tion Green	RB	6'0, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	91	413	7	4.5	3.4	38.5%
Brendon Kay	QB				57	267	6	4.7	3.1	40.4%
Jordan Luallen	QB				47	220	3	4.7	3.5	38.3%
Munchie Legaux	QB	6'5, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	15	118	1	7.9	6.8	53.3%
Anthony King	RB				6	34	0	5.7	1.0	83.3%
Shaq Washington	WR	5'9, 174	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	6	65	1	10.8	16.8	50.0%
Rob Rice	RB	5'10, 178	Jr.	NR	4	18	1	4.5	1.8	50.0%
Rodriguez Moore	RB	5'10, 176	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	4	13	0	3.3	1.7	25.0%
EJ Junior	RB	6'0, 222	So.	3 stars (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Shaq Washington	WR	5'9, 174	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	100	77	791	77.0%	22.5%	70.5%	7.9	-64	8.3	99.5
Anthony McClung	WR				94	72	933	76.6%	21.1%	59.5%	9.9	131	10.1	117.3
Chris Moore	WR	6'1, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	73	45	645	61.6%	16.4%	50.8%	8.8	88	7.5	81.1
Max Morrison	WR	6'1, 173	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	51	29	447	56.9%	11.5%	54.8%	8.8	72	8.8	56.2
Mekale McKay	WR	6'6, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	34	16	485	47.1%	7.6%	59.3%	14.3	255	14.2	61.0
RD Abernathy IV	RB	5'7, 161	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	31	24	177	77.4%	7.0%	40.0%	5.7	-89	4.9	22.3
Alex Chisum (2012)	WR	6'3, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	31	9	140	29.0%	8.7%	54.8%	4.5	N/A	4.3	20.7
Blake Annen	TE				21	16	183	76.2%	4.7%	63.2%	8.7	4	9.4	23.0
Jeremy Graves	WR	6'2, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	6	47	60.0%	2.2%	33.3%	4.7	-28	5.4	5.9
Hosey Williams	RB	5'9, 199	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	5	4	21	80.0%	1.1%	50.0%	4.2	-23	3.9	2.6
Tion Green	RB	6'0, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	5	2	12	40.0%	1.1%	0.0%	2.4	-20	1.1	1.5
Shai Alonzo	TE	6'4, 218	So.	2 stars (5.3)	4	3	81	75.0%	0.9%	N/A	20.3	47	0.0	10.2
Nate Cole	WR	6'1, 193	So.	3 stars (5.7)	4	4	39	100.0%	0.9%	0.0%	9.8	-1	5.3	4.9
DJ Dowdy	TE	6'4, 223	So.	3 stars (5.7)	2	2	6	100.0%	0.4%	0.0%	3.0	-14	2.7	0.8
Johnny Holton	WR	6'3, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Chris Burton	TE	6'3, 272	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Tyler Cogswell	TE	6'4, 248	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Tshumbi Johnson	WR	5'11, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Javon Harrison	WR	6'1, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Mark Barr	WR	6'1, 163	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Casey Gladney	WR	6'2, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Frank Labady	WR	5'7, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

4. Gunner's got options

In theory, you've got everything you could want in Cincy's skill position roster. Shaq Washington is a stellar possession receiver who caught more than three-quarters of his targets last year. Chris Moore, Max Morrison, and Mekale McKay are potentially great deep threats who combined to average 17.5 yards per catch and 10.0 yards per target in 2013. Ralph David Abernathy IV is the quintessential jitterbug back (albeit one whose averages have in no way matched his perceived potential), and Hosey Williams is a late-bloomer and a perfect vertical complement to Abernathy's more bouncy, horizontal threat. Throw in a batch of interesting youngsters (running back E.J. Junior, tight end Tyler Cogswell, three three-star redshirt freshman receivers, etc.), and this is a potentially loaded unit.

Of course, most of these players were involved last year, too, and the offense ranked only 53rd in Off. F/+. And that was with a more experienced line than Cincy will boast this time around. (The line should be fine, by the way. Three-year starting tackle Eric Lefeld is back, as are two other 2013 starters.) There is more potential than proven production here, and that becomes even more true if Kiel takes the reins.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.3	2.84	3.59	38.8%	66.1%	19.8%	143.3	3.9%	3.8%
Rank	71	79	35	71	76	74	25	43	17

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Eric Lefeld	LT	6'6, 309	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	32	1st All-AAC
Sam Longo	RG				23	2nd All-AAC
Austen Bujnoch	LG				35
Parker Ehinger	RG	6'7, 292	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	25
Deyshawn Bond	C	6'2, 287	So.	2 stars (5.3)	13
Andre Cureton	RG				6
Cory Keebler	RT	6'7, 294	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Kevin Schloemer	LG	6'7, 312	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Dominic Mainello	C	6'3, 280	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Justin Murray	RT	6'5, 294	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Tyreek Burwell	OL	6'5, 286	Sr.	NR	0
Ryan Leahy	OL	6'6, 282	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Luke Callahan	OL	6'5, 278	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.02	8	IsoPPP+	107.8	27
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.5%	26	Succ. Rt. +	95.9	71
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.2	24	Off. FP+	101.5	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	49	Redzone S&P+	90.6	87
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.0		ACTUAL	21.0	-1.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	9	68	71	59
RUSHING	6	60	58	84
PASSING	29	80	86	33
Standard Downs		46	58	30
Passing Downs		98	105	30

Q1 Rk	76	1st Down Rk	77
Q2 Rk	57	2nd Down Rk	72
Q3 Rk	54	3rd Down Rk	65
Q4 Rk	103

5. Dominating bad run games

Cincinnati ranked sixth in the country in rushing yards allowed per game. The Bearcats allowed 112 or fewer rushing yards nine times in 2013. Without taking opponent into account, they had one of the most stout run fronts in the country.

Of course, then you take opponent into account, and the shine wears off. Cincy played against one of the weakest sets of run offenses in the country. (Plus, the Bearcats benefited from having a pretty good blitz, and as we know, sacks count against rushing yards. But I've gone on that rant plenty of times.) Decent running teams found room -- Illinois and Temple rushed for a combined 5.5 yards per carry, and North Carolina and Louisville managed to go over 170 yards as well. Adjusting for pace, sacks, and opponent, Cincinnati's run defense was decent (60th in Rushing S&P+) but far from elite.

Whether Cincy can rank even in the top 60 this year could depend on a brand new set of tackles. Last year's top four are gone, including two (Jordan Stepp and Adam Dempsey) who combined for 16 tackles for loss in 2013.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	101.7	2.24	3.50	36.3%	60.0%	19.8%	101	3.9%	9.9%
Rank	53	1	84	36	24	52	60	77	14

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jordan Stepp	DT				13	30.5	4.5%	8.0	6.0	0	0	0	0
Silverberry Mouhon	DE	6'4, 248	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	30.0	4.5%	12.5	9.5	0	1	2	0
Adam Dempsey	DT				13	23.0	3.4%	8.0	3.5	0	1	0	0
Brad Harrah	DE	6'5, 258	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	19.0	2.8%	10.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Terrell Hartsfield	DE	6'3, 246	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	18.0	2.7%	4.0	1.5	0	1	0	0
Marques Aiken	DT				13	15.0	2.2%	3.0	0.5	0	2	0	0
Mitch Meador	DT				13	9.5	1.4%	2.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Jerrell Jordan	DE	6'3, 248	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	4.5	0.7%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Chad West	DE	6'6, 262	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Mitchell	DT	6'2, 308	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	9	3.0	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Camaron Beard	DT	6'5, 287	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	2.5	0.4%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Mark Wilson	DE	6'3, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Alex Pace	DT	6'2, 282	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Hakeem Allonce	DT	6'5, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Ja'Merez Brown	DT	6'4, 270	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Landon Brazile	DE	6'6, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

6. Play-makers on the outside...

On the edges of the defense, Tuberville and co-coordinators Hank Hughes and Robert Prunty have quite a bit to play with. Ends Silverberry Mouton, Brad Harrah, and Terrell Hartsfield combined for 15 sacks and 26.5 tackles for loss in 2013. Strongside linebacker Nick Temple added 5.5 and 13.5, respectively. And three of last year's top four corners return as well and are joined by an interesting crop of freshmen.

Cincy was pretty good in attack mode last fall (14th in passing downs sack rate, first in standard downs line yards per carry; yes, those are both unadjusted for opponent), and especially with Mouton and Temple back, that should be the case again.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Greg Blair	MLB				13	77.0	11.5%	7.0	1.0	0	3	1	1
Nick Temple	SLB	5'10, 218	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	60.5	9.0%	13.5	5.5	1	1	0	0
Jeff Luc	MLB	6'1, 251	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	13	35.0	5.2%	6.5	1.5	0	2	3	0
Clemente Casseus	WLB	6'1, 227	Sr.	NR	13	18.0	2.7%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Solomon Tentman	MLB	6'2, 237	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	16.5	2.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Corey Mason	SLB				13	16.0	2.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Kevin Brown	LB	6'1, 206	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	6.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mason Antoun	LB	6'1, 225	Jr.	NR	9	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Hyland	LB	6'2, 230	Jr.	NR	10	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Eric Wilson	WLB	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Marcus Tappan	LB	6'2, 235	So.	NR
Kevin Mouhon	LB	6'2, 225	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

7. ...and a rebuild up the middle

The backbone of the defense, however, is a serious concern. The leading returning tackles (Brandon Mitchell, Camaron Beard) combined for 6.0 tackles last year. Middle linebacker Greg Blair, the heartbeat of the D, is gone. And safety Arryn Chenault, a reasonably sure tackler on a defense pretty good at preventing big plays, has graduated as well.

There is some rebuilding to be done here, and we'll see if Tuberville has the pieces he needs yet. It's hard to worry too much about a Tuberville defense, but this one has some concerns.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Zach Edwards	S	5'11, 186	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13	58.0	8.6%	2.5	0	2	7	1	0
Arryn Chenault	S				13	47.0	7.0%	1	0	1	6	0	0
Adrian Witty	CB	5'10, 187	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	13	36.5	5.4%	2	0	1	4	0	0
Howard Wilder	CB	5'11, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	27.0	4.0%	0	0	2	4	1	0
Deven Drane	CB				12	25.5	3.8%	1	0	3	5	0	0
Leviticus Payne	CB	5'9, 183	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	19.5	2.9%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Andre Jones	S	6'1, 197	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	15.0	2.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mike Tyson	S	6'2, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	13.0	1.9%	0.5	0	2	1	0	0
Grant Coleman	CB	5'11, 162	So.	NR	6	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Marcus Foster	S	6'1, 204	So.	3 stars (5.6)	6	3.0	0.4%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Trenier Orr	CB				2	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darren Doston	S	6'2, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)
J.J. Pinckney	CB	6'3, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Carter Jacobs	S	6'1, 193	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Odell Spencer	CB	6'0, 160	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Linden Stephens	CB	6'0, 185	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
John Lloyd	6'2, 237	Sr.	33	42.7	3	6	9	45.5%
Brendon Kay			15	38.6	4	0	8	53.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Tony Miliano	6'2, 186	Sr.	75	61.9	23	2	30.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Tony Miliano	6'2, 186	Sr.	54-56	7-16	43.8%	1-7	14.3%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
RD Abernathy IV	KR	5'7, 161	Sr.	16	21.9	0
Rodriguez Moore	KR	5'10, 176	Sr.	14	21.1	0
Anthony McClung	PR			19	4.1	0
Shaq Washington	PR	5'9, 174	Jr.	10	8.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	123
Field Goal Efficiency	124
Punt Return Efficiency	117
Kick Return Efficiency	98
Punt Efficiency	120
Kickoff Efficiency	3
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	20

8. Disturbingly bad special teams

Cincinnati's special teams unit had major concerns even before it allowed two return touchdowns in the Belk Bowl. Kickoff efficiency had actually been the unit's only strength until that point. The Bearcats were among the nation's bottom 10 in field goal, punt, and punt return efficiency. That impacted their ability to finish drives (66th in Points Per Trip inside the 40) and, in terms of field position, negated the impact of a rather efficient overall offense.

They won nine games despite special teams, but with a few more questions on defense, the Bearcats cannot afford to be this awful in this regard, not if they have any illusions of a conference title.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
12-Sep	Toledo	53
20-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	121
27-Sep	at Ohio State	10
4-Oct	Memphis	95
11-Oct	at Miami	37
18-Oct	at SMU	74
24-Oct	South Florida	77
31-Oct	at Tulane	90
15-Nov	East Carolina	72
22-Nov	at Connecticut	86
29-Nov	at Temple	87
6-Dec	Houston	41

Five-Year F/+ Rk	9.3% (34)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	70
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-7 / 0.4
TO Luck/Game	-2.8
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (7, 6)

9. Win on the road

When you think of Gunner Kiel opening up the offense for a trio of downfield threats and Mouton and Blair harrassing quarterbacks, it's easy to talk yourself into Cincinnati. And when you remember last year's loss to USF (with a lot of these threats playing roles) and realize that almost the entire backbone of the defense needs replacing, it's easy to talk yourself right back out. This is a pretty hard team to grasp even before you realize it's being coached by Tommy Tuberville, the ultimate expectations destroyer.

I'm struggling with what to do with this team, but I know this: whatever the Bearcats' goals are for 2014, realizing those goals will require winning on the road. Never mind the trip to Columbus on September 27; I'm talking about trips to Miami, SMU, Tulane, UConn, and Temple. With only a little bit of variation in quality, Cincy could end up 5-1 or 0-6 away from Nippert Stadium. That's what happens when there's a large cluster of conference teams of similar quality.

My gut says Cincy does pretty well this year. The offense really could sustain last year's late-season goals, and Tuberville teams have certainly won big road games in the past. The Bearcats are a step behind UCF but might be as well-stocked as anybody else. But you might want to do yourself a favor and avoid setting expectations of any kind for this team. It's just easier that way.

10. AAC balance of power

At the end of each conference run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference's balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. They're just how I would rank the teams after writing 4,000 or so words about each of them.

Tier 1
1. UCF

The schedule is rough. Never mind the trips out of town to play Penn State and Missouri in non-conference; the Knights must play at the No. 2, 4, and 5 teams on the list below as well. This may preclude them from back-to-back AAC titles, but taking schedule out of the equation, this is still easily the most known quantity in the conference. They are built for the long haul.

Tier 2
2. ECU
3. Cincinnati
4. Houston

Houston was lucky but quite young in 2013, and the Cougars could be capable of just about anything. Meanwhile, I'm sticking Cincinnati in the middle of this tier as a cushion -- I'm scared of putting them too high or too low.

Tier 3
5. USF
6. Tulane
7. Tulsa
8. SMU
9. Memphis
10. UConn
11. Temple

The AAC in no way has a wealth of elite teams, but like the old Big East, this conference should be competitive as hell. You could make the case for any of these seven teams to not only reach fifth, but potentially break into the second tier. (Okay, fine, Temple's not breaking into the second tier.)