The big 2014 Army football preview: Modernization and the Black Knights

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Someone else's turn

A hard job continues to be hard. It never gets easier, even when you do it well at first.

That's how I led off April's Air Force preview. It goes for football jobs outside of the service academies, sure, but it really goes for the service academies. As college football gets bigger and stronger, Army, Navy, and Air Force athletes, by design, stay basically the same size. And while Navy has some things figured out from a financial standpoint, the Army and Air Force athletic departments have been playing catch-up for a while.

This is terribly, clearly evident from a wins-and-losses standpoint. Army had a winning record for every season from 1941-50 and was .500 or better from 1953-63. There were some more spurts in the following decades: 1966-68, 1971-72, 1977, 1984-86, 1988-90.

But since hall-of-famer Jim Young left in 1990, the pickings have been slim. Army went 6-5 in 1993, 10-2 in 1996, 7-6 in 2010 ... and that's pretty much it. Todd Berry went 5-42 from 2000-03. Bobby Ross went 9-25. Stan Brock went 6-18.

That Rich Ellerson was able to quickly engineer a bowl bid in only his second season was exciting. He found a fun quarterback to run his option offense (Trent Steelman), and his defense, a relative strength in recent years, was still good enough to stay out of the offense's way. But as has been the case with Air Force, a legion of defensive woes did him in. After winning seven games in 2010, Army won only eight from 2011-13.

As Ellerson found ways to put a solid offense on the table -- predictably, using a lot of the same option concepts that have brought success to Air Force and Navy -- his defense just got worse and worse. He basically put the same caliber of team on the field for four of his five seasons. And, of course, he never figured out a way to beat Navy.

That Ellerson lasted five seasons at all in this difficult job is pretty impressive; it's longer than any of his three predecessors. But he's gone, and now it's Jeff Monken's turn.

2. Jeff Monken had a pretty good job

The 47-year-old cousin of Southern Miss head coach Todd Monken, Jeff Monken had spent 13 seasons on Paul Johnson's coaching staffs at Georgia Southern (1997-01), Navy (2002-07), and Georgia Tech (2008-09); he was well-versed in the fundamentals of the triple option, and he used them with aplomb when he took over as Georgia Southern's head coach in 2010.

His Eagles reached the FCS semifinals in each of his first three years on the job (they went 31-12 overall), and despite a series of draining injuries, GS still went 7-4 and upset Florida in 2013. They were making the jump to FBS in 2014, and from a recruiting standpoint, it was looking as if they would be able to compete in the Sun Belt rather quickly.

It takes a certain personality to be drawn to a job like Army; Monken apparently has that personality. After his hire, he told the Times Herald-Record, "There's something absolutely different about an academy. It's a responsibility that goes far beyond the football field and it's an opportunity to be part of something way, way bigger than me or any one player on our team. It's just really something special. ... I just felt like it was a chance of lifetime."

Monken's enthusiasm won athletic director Boo Corrigan over almost immediately, but his ability to modernize, however possible, will be the key to staying in the job more than three to five years. Army will run the option, but Georgia Southern was able to pass a bit from time to time (not so much in 2013).

But beyond that, the Black Knights simply have to figure out a way to make stops while giving up massive size advantages to virtually every offense they face. Army had a top-75 offense (according to Off. F/+) in three of the last four seasons, but after ranking 54th in Def. F/+ in 2009, they fell to 88th, 84th, 124th, and 111th, respectively, over the last four years. One way or another, Monken and defensive coordinator Jay Bateman (Pete Lembo's defensive coordinator for the last three years at Ball State) have to craft a defense with fewer holes. We'll see if that's even possible.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 100
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
30-Aug	Morgan State	N/A	28-12	W	29.2 - 48.3	L
7-Sep	at Ball State	57	14-40	L	21.1 - 25.7	L
14-Sep	Stanford	3	20-34	L	26.6 - 36.3	L
21-Sep	Wake Forest	81	11-25	L	25.4 - 41.7	L
28-Sep	vs. Louisiana Tech	112	16-35	L	34.7 - 35.8	L	-10.2
5-Oct	at Boston College	65	27-48	L	26.4 - 58.6	L	-12.8
12-Oct	Eastern Michigan	124	50-25	W	40.1 - 43.0	L	-12.4
19-Oct	at Temple	98	14-33	L	18.8 - 29.0	L	-12.6
2-Nov	at Air Force	113	28-42	L	22.1 - 45.2	L	-13.9
9-Nov	Western Kentucky	77	17-21	L	29.5 - 23.7	W	-12.5
30-Nov	at Hawaii	82	42-49	L	29.4 - 46.3	L	-9.4
14-Dec	vs. Navy	58	7-34	L	11.1 - 24.2	L	-11.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-2.7%	70	-13.0%	111	-1.9%	98
Points Per Game	22.8	97	33.2	98
Adj. Points Per Game	26.2	84	38.1	120

3. Matching gains with losses

Things never came together for Army in 2013. The Black Knights showed promise at times, taking advantage of some turnovers and a couple of nice drives to stay close to Stanford, hanging tight against superior Western Kentucky and Hawaii teams, and rather easily handling the two worst teams on the schedule, Morgan State and Eastern Michigan.

But in the other seven games on the schedule, Army lost by an average score of 37-17; the defense got obliterated by Louisiana Tech, Boston College, and Air Force, and the offense showed minimal prowess against Ball State, Wake Forest, and Temple. And after a bit of offensive improvement (which was matched by defensive regression), everything fell apart against Navy. And that was that for the Ellerson era.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.01	115	IsoPPP+	88.5	115
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.2%	40	Succ. Rt. +	91.9	85
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	34.4	125	Def. FP+	91.6	124
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	32	Redzone S&P+	105.7	38
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.6		ACTUAL	17	+1.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	80	95	86	114
RUSHING	3	61	74	19
PASSING	125	119	124	126
Standard Downs		86	71	120
Passing Downs		99	115	52

Q1 Rk	59	1st Down Rk	95
Q2 Rk	122	2nd Down Rk	96
Q3 Rk	91	3rd Down Rk	99
Q4 Rk	106

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Angel Santiago	5'11, 188	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	46	93	592	2	2	49.5%	11	10.6%	5.2
Kelvin White	6'3, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	15	30	143	1	2	50.0%	3	9.1%	4.2
A.J. Schurr	6'0, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	14	25	196	1	0	56.0%	2	7.4%	6.8
Marques Avery	6'1, 186	Sr.	NR
Matt Kaufmann	5'10, 195	So.	NR

4. What is this sorcery?

Take a quick gander at the statistics from Army's spring game. You'll find some familiar aspects -- 11 players rushed at least three times, and the two starting quarterbacks combined for 20 carries. Again, Monken is well-versed in the triple option and will certainly use it a good amount.

That said ... Army quarterbacks also attempted 35 passes. Converted receiver Matt Kaufmann completed 13 of 17 for 206 yards, and A.J. Schurr went 9-for-18 for 137.

In five appearances last year, Schurr threw just 25 passes total. And in all of last season, only eight players caught more than one pass; five caught more than one on April 19 alone.

Does this mean anything? Probably not. As the USA Today's Paul Myerberg points out, Monken will almost certainly utilize the pass more than Ellerson -- it's almost impossible to run the ball more than Ellerson -- because of the effect it can have in loosening up the defense. Army just had no hope of catching up once it fell behind schedule last year, and adding at least a little bit of passing ability can only help.

The more passing Monken wants to do, the more it's possible that Schurr or Kaufmann could start the season over last year's starter Angel Santiago. Santiago is decent from an option standpoint, but he barely averaged 5.0 yards per pass attempt and took a lot of sacks. Schurr looked pretty good against Hawaii (5-for-10 for 122 yards, 15 carries for 47 yards and four touchdowns) and finished the spring atop the depth chart.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Angel Santiago	QB	5'11, 188	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	160	643	10	4.0	4.7	29.4%
Terry Baggett	RB	6'1, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	141	1113	8	7.9	6.4	58.2%
Larry Dixon	RB	6'0, 238	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	112	699	6	6.2	6.3	41.1%
Trenton Turrentine	RB	5'9, 206	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	56	376	1	6.7	3.9	58.9%
Hayden Tippett	FB				32	149	0	4.7	2.5	34.4%
A.J. Schurr	QB	6'0, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	31	114	4	3.7	7.7	29.0%
Tony Giovannelli	RB	6'0, 192	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	30	223	0	7.4	6.3	53.3%
Matt Giachinta	FB	6'1, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	27	112	2	4.1	2.3	25.9%
Stephen Fraser	RB	5'10, 187	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Jared Rogers	RB	5'8, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Elijah St. Hilaire	RB	5'10, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Joe Walker	RB	5'10, 181	So.	NR

5. Plenty of potential in the backfield

When Army was able to avoid negative plays at the quarterback position, the running backs mostly did their job. Terry Baggett and Larry Dixon both showed pretty strong explosiveness with big bodies, and Tony Giovannelli showed some potential as well. It appears Dixon will play more of the fullback role this year (at 6'0, 238 pounds, that makes sense), and three-star sophomore Elijah St. Hilaire was involved a bit this spring. There are options for the option, and even if Army passes a bit more this fall, there should still be more than enough carries to go around.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Xavier Moss	WR	6'2, 175	So.	NR	60	35	463	58.3%	43.8%	57.7%	7.7	17	8.1	48.0
Chevaughn Lawrence	WR	6'3, 195	Sr.	NR	22	10	105	45.5%	16.1%	57.1%	4.8	-42	5.1	10.9
Anthony Stephens	WR				18	10	60	55.6%	13.1%	53.8%	3.3	-71	3.0	6.2
Terry Baggett	RB	6'1, 200	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	6	123	60.0%	7.3%	80.0%	12.3	48	15.0	12.7
Patrick Laird	WR				5	3	28	60.0%	3.6%	0.0%	5.6	-10	2.1	2.9
Raymond Maples	RB				5	1	27	20.0%	3.6%	0.0%	5.4	1	6.0	2.8
Tony Giovannelli	RB	6'0, 192	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	5	2	29	40.0%	3.6%	0.0%	5.8	-3	6.4	3.0
Matt Giachinta	RB	6'1, 210	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	3	2	17	66.7%	2.2%	66.7%	5.7	-7	6.2	1.8
Larry Dixon	RB	6'0, 238	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	3	3	48	100.0%	2.2%	0.0%	16.0	18	8.4	5.0
Edgar Poe	WR	6'3, 185	So.	NR	2	1	6	50.0%	1.5%	N/A	3.0	-8	0.0	0.6
Hayden Tippett	FB				2	1	16	50.0%	1.5%	0.0%	8.0	2	7.1	1.7
Scott Williams	WR				2	1	9	50.0%	1.5%	N/A	4.5	-5	0.0	0.9
Justin Newman	WR	6'3, 192	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Kelvin White	WR	6'3, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Mike Parros	WR	6'0, 190	Jr.	NR

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.9	3.27	3.52	41.2%	79.3%	13.3%	61.8	5.9%	11.7%
Rank	50	18	40	43	6	5	120	95	117

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Michael Kime	LT				25
Stephen Shumaker	LG	6'0, 264	Sr.	NR	24
Zach Reichert	RG				13
Ryan Powis	LT	6'0, 248	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	12
Justin Gilbert	RT	6'3, 265	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	12
Matt Hugenberg	C	6'3, 285	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
Nick Bennett	LT				0
Todd McDonald	C	5'11, 239	Sr.	NR	0
Nikolos Schillaci	LT	6'3, 249	Sr.	NR	0
Corey Hobbs	RT	6'0, 230	Jr.	NR	0
Stefan Moreau	RG	6'3, 270	So.	NR	0
O.J. Hall	LG	6'4, 260	So.	NR	0
Colby Enegren	RG	6'3, 265	So.	NR	0

6. Recruiting rankings tell a story

Of the eight running backs listed above, seven were listed in the Rivals.com recruiting database. A couple (Dixon, St. Hilaire) were three-star recruits. Santiago was a high-two at quarterback.

Meanwhile, of the six returning receivers above, two had recruiting rankings, and those two combined to catch zero passes last year.

More telling: of the 20 offensive and defensive linemen listed here, six had recruiting rankings. Five were low- to mid-two-stars.

You can find some solid running back prospects, and you can almost certainly find a high-school option quarterback. But you can't really find many big guys. The conditioning requirements of cadets makes that pretty much impossible. On offense, you can account for that with zone- and cut-blocking; you can use the opposing defense's size against it to some degree.

But you can't really do the same on your own defense.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	111	IsoPPP+	84.5	119
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.5%	115	Succ. Rt. +	84.1	113
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.3	117	Off. FP+	92.6	118
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	105	Redzone S&P+	85.0	104
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.7		ACTUAL	17.0	+1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	72	120	113	111
RUSHING	104	111	99	103
PASSING	13	126	122	108
Standard Downs		119	108	119
Passing Downs		121	118	116

Q1 Rk	122	1st Down Rk	116
Q2 Rk	111	2nd Down Rk	118
Q3 Rk	123	3rd Down Rk	110
Q4 Rk	85

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.1	3.30	3.64	43.0%	67.3%	16.3%	105.4	2.7%	10.5%
Rank	94	104	98	105	64	97	50	110	9

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Mike Ugenyi	DE	6'3, 257	Sr.	NR	12	30.5	4.9%	6.5	1.0	0	0	3	0
Robert Kough	DE	6'3, 239	Sr.	NR	11	27.0	4.3%	8.0	3.0	0	1	0	0
Richard Glover	NT	6'0, 247	Sr.	NR	12	27.0	4.3%	5.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Malcolm Hudson	DE	5'10, 230	So.	NR	10	12.5	2.0%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Drummond	DE	6'3, 228	Sr.	NR	9	12.0	1.9%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Kyle Maxwell	DE				12	11.5	1.8%	5.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Holt Zalneraitis	DE				7	9.0	1.4%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Colin Linkul	DL	6'0, 188	Sr.	NR	11	3.0	0.5%	2.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Alexander	DL	6'1, 232	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	6	2.0	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Atimalala	NT	5'11, 260	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jordan Smith	DE	6'3, 235	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Shawn Lemoto	DE	6'2, 240	So.	NR

7. More play-makers, please

Honestly, Army's line stats weren't as bad as they could have been last year. The Black Knights ranked in the double digits in both Adj. Line Yards and Adj. Sack Rate. They held up reasonably well (all things considered) in short-yardage rushing situations, and on the rare occasion that they were able to force passing downs, they got to the quarterback more than 10 percent of the time. Four linemen logged at least five tackles for loss, and three linebackers registered at least four. These aren't great numbers, but they aren't atrocious either.

So how and where did Army's defense fail in 2013? When they could commit extra defenders to one thing -- stopping short-yardage rushing, getting to the quarterback on third-and-8 -- they were alright. But without that extra man-power, they were simply outmanned. They made some stops behind the line, sure, but 43 percent of opponent rushes gained at least five yards. On standard-down pass attempts, Army's pass rush was non-existent. And perhaps most damning, there was almost no play-making ability beyond the line of scrimmage.

If there's one thing the new staff could potentially fix, it comes with that last point. A defense like Army's is certain to be drastically undersized. But size isn't as much of a concern in the defensive backfield or, for the most part, at linebacker. You can potentially find play-makers who are 6'3, 220, or 5'11, 185 (case in point: Army's rather well-touted unit of running backs), and Ellerson just couldn't. Monken is probably going to have to make do with 250-pound defensive tackles for a good portion of his tenure, but he should expect more from the back seven or eight of the defense.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Thomas Holloway	OLB				8	51.5	8.3%	2.5	1.0	1	1	0	0
Colby Miller	ILB				10	42.5	6.8%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jarrett Mackey	OLB				12	38.0	6.1%	4.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
Julian Holloway	LB	6'2, 200	Sr.	NR	8	35.0	5.6%	4.5	1.0	0	0	1	0
James Kelly	OLB	6'3, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	19.5	3.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Marcus Poling	ILB	5'11, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	10	17.5	2.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Trimble	OLB				10	15.5	2.5%	1.0	0.0	2	0	0	0
Alex Meier	LB				3	12.5	2.0%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Dalton Mendenhall	OLB	6'3, 225	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	8	10.0	1.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Stephen Ricciardi	LB	6'0, 196	Sr.	NR	11	5.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Chasen Brown	OLB	5'10, 195	So.	NR	8	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sean McBryde	LB	6'2, 200	So.	NR	8	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew King	ILB	6'0, 225	So.	NR	2	3.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jim Forgrave	ILB	5'10, 218	Sr.	NR
Derek Sanchez	OLB	6'3, 206	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)
Justin Fahn	ILB	6'2, 200	Jr.	NR
Jeremy Timpf	ILB	6'3, 210	So.	NR

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Geoffery Bacon	FS	6'0, 207	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	8	49.0	7.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Shaquille Tolbert	BS				12	48.0	7.7%	3.5	0	1	3	2	0
Chris Carnegie	CB	6'0, 180	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	41.5	6.7%	1.5	0	1	1	0	0
Hayden Pierce	BS	6'3, 187	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	11	32.0	5.1%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Josh Jenkins	CB	6'0, 175	So.	NR	12	32.0	5.1%	1	0	2	6	1	1
Steven Johnson	FS	6'0, 190	So.	NR	9	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Reggie Nesbit	BS				11	4.5	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tyler Dickson	DB				10	4.0	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lamar Johnson-Harris	CB	5'9, 173	Sr.	NR
Michael McFadden	CB	6'1, 182	Jr.	NR
Jared Vallner	CB	6'1, 190	So.	NR
Gervon Simon	BS	5'10, 200	So.	NR

8. Hello, Josh Jenkins

Five Army defensive backs recorded at least 5.0 tackles in 2013. Four of them combined for eight passes defensed; the fifth, Josh Jenkins, recorded eight by himself.

The Army secondary was and is perilously thin, but in Jenkins, now a sophomore, the Black Knights might actually have a play-maker. Easily one of the best athletes on the team, he will basically be guarding every opponent's best receiver for the next three years.

Of course, he needs help. A lot of it. Until we see how well Monken recruits to this area of need, the Army defense isn't going to improve much. But when you're starved for play-makers, having one seems significantly better than having zero.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Alex Tardieu	6'4, 190	Jr.	51	37.3	2	17	11	54.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Daniel Grochowski	6'2, 205	Jr.	48	58.2	14	1	29.2%
Cale Brewer	6'0, 175	Jr.	8	51.4	0	1	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Daniel Grochowski	6'2, 205	Jr.	36-36	6-8	75.0%	2-3	66.7%
Cale Brewer	6'0, 175	Jr.	1-1	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Julian Crockett	KR			22	15.9	0
Larry Dixon	KR	6'0, 238	Sr.	5	18.4	0
Scott Williams	PR			10	3.3	0
Jalen Noble	PR			3	4.7	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	98
Field Goal Efficiency	57
Punt Return Efficiency	64
Kick Return Efficiency	120
Punt Efficiency	76
Kickoff Efficiency	103
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	113

9. Find a return man

When you're outclassed from an athleticism standpoint, it bleeds over into special teams. You either have to put your starters and your best athletes on the field and risk injury and fatigue, or you have to put what are probably far inferior backups out there.

From this standpoint, Army's special teams unit really wasn't that bad in 2013. Kickoff coverage wasn't amazing, but the Black Knights were at least decent from a punt coverage standpoint, and Daniel Grochowski is a decent place-kicker. The return game, however, was awful. Abysmal. Inexcusable.

Army's longest kick return in 2013 was 26 yards; three FBS teams averaged better than 26 yards per return (Florida State, Stanford, TCU).

Army's longest punt return in 2013 was 12 yards; 22 FBS teams averaged better than 12 yards per return, including another athletically inferior team, UMass.

There is simply no excuse for this, and it must improve. With an efficient offense and perhaps a few more plays from a defense that includes a good cornerback and decent pass rush, Army is set up to do alright -- at least, not stink -- from a field position standpoint; the return game can't give away all of those gains if Army is going to improve in 2014.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
6-Sep	Buffalo	107
13-Sep	at Stanford	6
20-Sep	at Wake Forest	89
27-Sep	at Yale	NR
4-Oct	Ball State	81
11-Oct	Rice	88
18-Oct	at Kent State	102
1-Nov	Air Force	105
8-Nov	vs. Connecticut	86
15-Nov	at Western Kentucky	91
22-Nov	Fordham	NR
13-Dec	vs. Navy	67

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-15.8% (104)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	104
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	0 / 0.1
TO Luck/Game	0.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (9, 8)

10. A pretty neat schedule

Army has faced a bit of an identity crisis in recent years. The Black Knights apparently had a miserable experience in joining Conference USA from 1998-2004 and chose to remain independent over the past decade.

Independence means you have a chance to craft your own path as a program, and in addition to the service academies, Army has attempted to balance its schedule between other Northeast programs (Boston College, Stony Brook, Rutgers, Temple), MAC programs it could conceivably beat (but barely has) from time to time (Ball State, EMU, Northern Illinois, Kent State, Miami (Ohio)), smart-kid schools (Stanford, Northwestern, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt), and a smattering of other mid-majors (Western Kentucky, San Diego State, North Texas). This has brought neither wins nor major fan interest to the table.

In terms of pure identity, interest, and uniqueness, I just love Army's 2014 schedule. The Black Knights play at Yale on September 27 to celebrate the 100th birthday of the Yale Bowl. They play UConn at Yankee Stadium in November. They host two New York schools (Buffalo, Fordham). They get the requisite smart-school (Stanford, Wake Forest, Rice ... and, yes, Yale) and MAC (Buffalo, Ball State, Kent State) games. The MAC ties don't do anything for me, but in terms of pure aesthetics and/or geography, there are a lot of interesting games on this schedule.

This is exactly what Army should be attempting to craft ... though if the Black Knights wanted to replace MAC ties with Sun Belt ties -- getting exposed to a few more kids from Georgia and Florida along the way -- that might not be the worst idea in the world.

Monken could very well engineer a top-100 product this fall, and if he can do that, up to six or eight games are winnable. That doesn't mean the Black Knights will win all six to eight, of course, but if he can open up the offense a bit, and if players like Josh Jenkins and end Robert Kough can make a few more plays, Army could at least get back to 4-8 or 5-7.

We'll set the bar at three wins and let them surprise, but with a new coaching staff comes some new hope ... at least until we all get a reminder of how hard this job is.