The big 2014 Louisville football guide: The hitman goes to work

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Like hiring a hitman

Hiring Bobby Petrino will allow you to meet a goal you want to accomplish. You won't feel good about yourself, and you'll probably end up with regrets. But he will do the one thing you're asking him to do.

I expressed my opinions of Louisville's hire of Petrino in a Coaching Grades piece back in January.

We'll put aside the general tackiness of this hire, that it sets an awful example for players (if you're into that sort of thing) ... that Louisville is basically welcoming back the guy who cheated on the program, then dumped it seven years ago ... that there's a chance that, despite the "baby, I've changed" rhetoric, he leaves Louisville for a sexier job again in the coming years ... that even though we know that winning is all that matters, we don't necessarily enjoy having that principle shoved so blatantly in our faces.

Indeed, let's put that aside. This makes quite a bit of sense on paper ... we think. [...]

The problem, if one exists, isn't what's on his résumé; it's what's not. When he left Louisville, successor Steve Kragthorpe won just 15 games in three seasons. When he left Arkansas (because of a literal extra-marital situation, instead of the figurative one mentioned above), the Hogs went 7-17 in 2012-13. Were these just poor hires by these respective schools, or were there cracks in the foundation that might actually trip Petrino up if he sticks around in the same place for long enough? We'll see.

If Petrino sticks around as long as he says he will, we'll finally get an idea for what kind of program builder he is. It would be a first. Still, while he's never stayed more than four seasons at one spot, the guy's 83-30 in nine years as an FBS head coach. He won fewer than eight games in a year just once, in his first season at Arkansas. (He won 29 games in the three following years.) He engineered two top-six finishes at Louisville in 2004 and 2006, then did it again at Arkansas in 2011.

He is his own worst enemy, and he's made plenty of enemies through the years, but he's back in Louisville, and he's going to win some games. That much we know.

Now that we've got that out of the way, let's talk about 2014.

2. This seems familiar

Exciting sophomore quarterback, high-upside receiving corps, questions on defense. Sound familiar?

It sounds a lot like Petrino's 2009 Arkansas team, one that featured Ryan Mallett throwing to exciting receivers and an athletic defense that was a little too young to be a top-30 unit. That team went 8-5, then improved as Mallett and the offense gelled.

It's a shaky comparison, yes. This Louisville offense has a more experienced offense, and while 2009 Arkansas' defense was done in by its secondary, Louisville's is more likely to be done in by a young defensive front. But what Petrino is implementing in Louisville should take relatively quickly. Last year, he inherited a WKU offense that was running Stanford power; by comparison, the receivers he finds at Papa John's Stadium will be very much to his liking.

Louisville will score, and the prospects that Charlie Strong left behind for defensive coordinator Todd Grantham should be at least reasonably effective, despite both youth up front and the move from a 4-3 to a 3-4. This isn't a team likely to continue the Cardinals' recent pace of wins -- 11-2 in 2012, 12-1 in 2013 -- but Louisville could easily be the third-best team in its new league. Not a bad place to start.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-1 | Adj. Record: 12-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 12
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
1-Sep	Ohio	104	49-7	W	50.0 - 18.6	W
7-Sep	Eastern Kentucky	N/A	44-7	W	36.0 - 16.7	W
14-Sep	at Kentucky	97	27-13	W	34.2 - 28.2	W
21-Sep	Florida International	125	72-0	W	47.8 - (-5.7)	W
5-Oct	at Temple	98	30-7	W	35.5 - 19.7	W	25.2
10-Oct	Rutgers	91	24-10	W	39.7 - 14.9	W	23.9
18-Oct	Central Florida	21	35-38	L	50.0 - 31.1	W	23.8
26-Oct	at South Florida	99	34-3	W	39.9 - 19.2	W	26.7
8-Nov	at Connecticut	93	31-10	W	30.1 - 20.8	W	17.9
16-Nov	Houston	46	20-13	W	25.0 - 12.7	W	17.2
23-Nov	Memphis	83	24-17	W	28.5 - 30.2	L	11.9
5-Dec	at Cincinnati	64	31-24	W	41.5 - 22.3	W	12.0
28-Dec	vs. Miami	36	36-9	W	39.7 - 6.3	W	14.5

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+11.8%	23	+15.1%	10	+2.0%	28
Points Per Game	35.2	25	12.2	2
Adj. Points Per Game	38.3	10	18.1	5

3. Great, then good

I was right and wrong about Louisville in 2013. After the Cardinals' thumping of 11-1 Florida in the 2013 Sugar Bowl, expectations for the 2013 season grew unfairly high. Suddenly people were considering Louisville a top-5 or top-10 team after the Cardinals only played at an elite level once or twice. I love talking about up-and-coming programs, but I found myself repeating the "tap the brakes on Louisville, guys, they're not an elite team" mantra quite often. Quite often.

In the end, the Cardinals indeed were not an elite team or a national title contender. But they came a lot closer than I expected. And over the first two-thirds of the season (aside from basically one quarter against UCF), they were indeed every bit as elite as I said they wouldn't be.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 8 games): Louisville 41.6, Opponent 15.6 (plus-26.0)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Louisville 31.3, Opponent 21.5 (plus-9.8)

A fluky, last-second home loss to a strong UCF team ended Louisville's title hopes, and the Cardinals had almost instantly vanished from national consciousness by the morning of October 19. But while the invisibility seemed to impact their play a bit -- they won their final three AAC games by just seven points each -- they kept winning.

The semi-lull knocked season averages down a bit, but the Charlie Strong era still ended with 23 wins in 26 games; Louisville had won just 10 of 27 when he took the job in 2010. Strong left for Texas, stars Teddy Bridgewater and Calvin Pryor left early for the pros, and most of the defensive line graduated.

But Strong's south Florida recruiting has left the Cardinals with a strong base of talent on defense, and if Petrino coaches up the skill positions as he typically does, this should be a pretty good team in 2014. Not amazing, but pretty good. He's inheriting a program that is infinitely better shape than the one Strong inherited.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	56	IsoPPP+	100.8	56
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	50.6%	6	Succ. Rt. +	115.6	17
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.7	47	Def. FP+	101.4	41
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.8	20	Redzone S&P+	98.6	68
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	14.9		ACTUAL	10	-4.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	28	24	17	36
RUSHING	87	42	37	65
PASSING	16	18	10	22
Standard Downs		19	15	37
Passing Downs		38	23	95

Q1 Rk	28	1st Down Rk	33
Q2 Rk	26	2nd Down Rk	26
Q3 Rk	19	3rd Down Rk	9
Q4 Rk	25

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Teddy Bridgewater

303

427

3970

31

4

71.0%

23

5.1%

8.4

Will Gardner

6'5, 230

So.

3 stars (5.6)

8

12

112

2

0

66.7%

3

20.0%

6.5

Brett Nelson

6'4, 231

Sr.

3 stars (5.5)

Kyle Bolin

6'3, 196

RSFr.

3 stars (5.7)

Pat Thomas

6'4, 185

Jr.

3 stars (5.6)

Reggie Bonnafon

6'3, 205

Fr.

3 stars (5.6)

4. All eyes on Gardner

It goes without saying for anybody who saw him play, but Teddy Bridgewater was a really, really good college quarterback. You don't need numbers to tell you that, but looking back on the numbers again is still rather jarring. The 31-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio. The 70 percent completion rate over two years. The random, almost perfect games -- 35-for-45 for 447 against Miami, 25-for-29 for 344 against USF, 23-for-28 for 355 against Ohio. The level of competition dinged Louisville's offense a bit; the Cardinals finished just ("just") 23rd in Off. F/+ and 18th in Passing S&P+. Still, Bridgewater set the bar impossibly high for his successor.

That successor's name appears to be Will Gardner. Let's say that his spring game performance -- 32-for-37 for 542 yards and four scores -- allayed concerns a bit. The redshirt sophomore from Douglas, Georgia, has size, arm strength, an experienced line, and potentially elite receivers, and if competition matters, he'll certainly find a steady dose of it for the top spot on the depth chart. Petrino's never been known as an elite recruiter, but he doesn't struggle to find quarterbacks, even on rosters he inherits.

(Pro tip: if you find yourself Googling for background information, be sure to type in "Will Gardner Louisville" instead of just "Will Gardner." Then again, maybe you want to read a bunch of articles about The Good Wife. I'm not here to judge.)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Dominique Brown	RB	6'2, 216	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	163	825	8	5.1	5.3	38.7%
Senorise Perry	RB				141	677	6	4.8	4.3	41.8%
Michael Dyer	RB	5'9, 215	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	44	223	2	5.1	4.8	40.9%
Teddy Bridgewater	QB				40	259	1	6.5	3.4	62.5%
Brandon Radcliff	RB	5'9, 216	So.	3 stars (5.6)	17	91	1	5.4	3.1	47.1%
Corvin Lamb	RB	5'9, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	4	13	0	3.3	0.8	50.0%
L.J. Scott	RB	6'0, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Damian Copeland	WR				83	58	780	69.9%	19.4%	53.3%	9.4	106	9.7	120.0
DeVante Parker	WR-X	6'3, 209	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	80	55	885	68.8%	18.7%	57.4%	11.1	240	9.4	136.2
Eli Rogers	WR-W	5'10, 182	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	55	44	536	80.0%	12.9%	55.3%	9.7	56	8.6	82.5
Gerald Christian	TE	6'3, 242	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	36	28	426	77.8%	8.4%	74.1%	11.8	116	12.5	65.6
Robert Clark	WR-W	5'9, 173	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	34	25	219	73.5%	8.0%	39.3%	6.4	-65	4.5	33.7
Dominique Brown	RB	6'2, 216	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	30	24	228	80.0%	7.0%	68.0%	7.6	-34	8.4	35.1
Michaelee Harris	WR-Z	6'2, 202	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	26	15	195	57.7%	6.1%	50.0%	7.5	3	7.2	30.0
Senorise Perry	RB				22	18	178	81.8%	5.2%	46.7%	8.1	-17	10.0	27.4
Ryan Hubbell	TE				21	14	236	66.7%	4.9%	77.8%	11.2	69	10.8	36.3
Kai De La Cruz	WR-X	6'0, 186	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	17	15	271	88.2%	4.0%	30.0%	15.9	114	13.2	41.7
James Quick	WR-Z	6'2, 171	So.	4 stars (6.0)	12	6	73	50.0%	2.8%	54.5%	6.1	-10	6.7	11.2
Lamar Atkins	FB	5'11, 216	So.	2 stars (5.2)	5	3	11	60.0%	1.2%	100.0%	2.2	-27	1.5	1.7
Matt Milton	WR-X	6'5, 205	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)
Keith Towbridge	TE	6'5, 263	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Cornelius Sturghill	WR	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Cameron Polk	WR-Z	6'2, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Micky Crum	TE	6'4, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Charles Standberry	WR	6'3, 216	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

5. A few more big plays wouldn't hurt

Louisville's offense was just about as efficient as anybody's in 2013, but when the Cardinals stalled out, it was most likely because of a lack of big plays. The passing game was solid in this regard -- three of the top four receivers averaged at least 13.4 yards per catch, and DeVante Parker averaged 16.1 -- but the running game was mostly devoid. Louisville had only 61 rushes of 10+ yards (79th in the country) and 14 of 20+ (76th). That held back the offense a bit, but only so much.

Still, efficiency is significant, and Louisville had it. Petrino offenses tend to have it, too. At WKU last season, Petrino's Hilltoppers ranked just 100th in IsoPPP+ (explosiveness) but 60th in Success Rate+ (efficiency). With two of three running backs, four of the top five receivers, and tight end Gerald Christian returning, Gardner will have plenty of efficiency weapons around him. Christian and Eli Rogers are two of the best efficiency guys in the country, and Parker is a potential All-American. Plus, former blue-chipper James Quick is patiently waiting his turn on the second string. Combine that with one of the most experienced lines in FBS, and one has to assume this offense will click. Maybe there's a drop-off simply because of Bridgewater's absence, but there might not be much of one.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	108.9	3.01	3.53	42.6%	71.4%	21.2%	106.7	5.2%	5.4%
Rank	33	55	38	27	45	92	62	79	46

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Jake Smith	C	6'4, 312	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	38	1st All-AAC
Jamon Brown	LT	6'6, 350	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	27	1st All-AAC
John Miller	LG	6'2, 321	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	34	2nd All-AAC
Ryan Mack	RT	6'5, 319	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13
Kamran Joyer	RG				11
Chris Acosta	RG	6'3, 275	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	3
Abraham Garcia	RG				2
Aaron Epps	RT	6'7, 279	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Mike Romano	C	6'4, 293	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Josh Stearns	RG	6'1, 285	Jr.	NR	0
Andrew Polston	RT	6'6, 275	Jr.	NR	0
T.C. Klusman	LG	6'3, 272	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Joe Manley	RG	6'6, 326	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Pedro Sibiea	RG	6'3, 294	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Skylar Lacy	LT	6'6, 320	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Kelby Johnson	OL	6'7, 299	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)

6. Plug the holes

Note that I said that the offensive line is one of the most experienced in FBS, and not one of the best. Despite three all-conference performers, the Louisville line was only good and not spectacular last fall. It created opportunities for its runners, but there were glitches -- Louisville ranked just 92nd in Stuff Rate (negative run plays).

Still, one has to love the potential of a line that returns all three of those all-conference performers and boasts 115 career starts distributed among five players. Jake Smith, John Miller, and Jamon Brown came up with Bridgewater, basically, and after some growing pains in 2011, this became a steady, reliable unit. And despite Bridgewater's departure, it returns mostly intact.

I don't know for sure about upside, but experience tends to create reliability, and if the Cardinals can minimize the random glitches while starting up to four seniors, there are really no question marks on this offense outside of the quarterback position.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.09	41	IsoPPP+	108.5	25
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	34.2%	7	Succ. Rt. +	111.6	25
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.9	71	Off. FP+	99.5	68
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.0	2	Redzone S&P+	116.9	18
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.6		ACTUAL	27.0	+1.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	1	15	25	12
RUSHING	1	28	44	29
PASSING	5	9	11	10
Standard Downs		22	27	42
Passing Downs		5	23	10

Q1 Rk	1	1st Down Rk	9
Q2 Rk	26	2nd Down Rk	32
Q3 Rk	52	3rd Down Rk	5
Q4 Rk	51

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.8	2.38	2.45	32.2%	52.9%	27.5%	155.9	8.0%	11.8%
Rank	26	9	8	8	5	3	8	6	3

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Marcus Smith	DE				13	37.5	5.9%	18.5	14.5	0	3	4	0
Roy Philon	DT				13	34.5	5.4%	12.0	4.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Dunn	DT				13	34.0	5.4%	4.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Sheldon Rankins	DE	6'2, 287	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	10	13.0	2.0%	4.0	3.0	0	2	1	0
B.J. Dubose	DE	6'5, 268	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	11	10.0	1.6%	4.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Dominique Dishman	DT				7	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Pedro Sibiea	DT				1	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
DeAngelo Brown	NT	6'0, 319	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Johnny Richardson	NT	6'3, 334	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Kyle Shortridge	DE	6'2, 293	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Pio Vatuvei	DE	6'3, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Terry Ramsey	DE	6'5, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. Turnover and changeover

Most of my reservations regarding Louisville in 2013 came on the defensive side of the ball. When Charlie Strong came to town, he immediately improved the Cardinals' defense from 89th in Def. F/+ to 45th in 2010. But there was a ceiling in place; they ranked just 46th in 2011 and 48th in 2012. The level of returning experience was high in 2013, but I was curious just how much the defense could improve in just one offseason.

The defense improved quite a bit. Thanks mostly to a line that went from liability to extreme strength, Louisville improved all the way to 10th in Def. F/+. The Cardinals were equally adept at preventing you from moving the ball efficiently and putting the kibosh on big plays, and they got even better when you got closer to their end zone. Only one defense in the country allowed fewer than Louisville's 3.0 points per trip inside the 40.

While the defense was a pleasant surprise in 2013, it has its work cut out for it in 2014. First of all, the line was decimated by attrition. The thing about having top-notch experience in a given season is that it probably means you don't the next. Plus, defensive coordinator Todd Grantham, formerly of Georgia, is installing his version of the 3-4 defense, which means that the front line is undergoing both turnover and change. There is almost no experience at the new nose tackle position, and while players like Sheldon Rankins have shown plenty of potential, they now have to produce at a much higher level.

The news isn't all bad, of course. Former end Lorenzo Mauldin should be absolutely terrifying at the OLB position, and inside linebacker James Burgess has proven to be tough against both run (eight non-sack tackles for loss) and pass (five passes defensed). Throw in some former four-star recruits who have been either limited by injury (Keith Brown) or simply waiting their turn (Nick Dawson, Stacy Thomas), and you've got loads of upside at linebacker.

Still, potential at linebacker only matters if the line can keep blockers off of those linebackers. We'll see.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Preston Brown	ILB				13	84.5	13.3%	12.5	4.5	0	1	3	1
James Burgess	ILB	6'0, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	56.5	8.9%	9.0	1.0	1	4	1	0
Lorenzo Mauldin	OLB	6'4, 243	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	34.5	5.4%	12.0	9.5	0	4	3	0
Keith Kelsey	ILB	6'1, 225	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	20.0	3.1%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Champ Lee	OLB				13	13.0	2.0%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
George Durant	OLB				12	12.0	1.9%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Nick Dawson	ILB	6'3, 265	So.	4 stars (5.9)	10	10.5	1.7%	3.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Deon Rogers	OLB				12	10.5	1.7%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Deiontrez Mount	OLB	6'5, 246	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	6.5	1.0%	1.5	0.5	0	2	0	0
Lamar Atkins	LB	5'11, 216	So.	2 stars (5.2)	11	4.5	0.7%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Keith Brown	LB	6'1, 235	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	4	3.0	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
James Hearns	OLB	6'3, 272	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)	2	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Stacy Thomas	OLB	6'1, 249	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Finesse Middleton	OLB	5'11, 246	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Lyn Clark	ILB	6'2, 244	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Trevon Young	OLB	6'4, 233	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Sharieff Rhaheed- Muahmmad	LB	6'3, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Henry Famurewa	OLB	6'2, 232	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Calvin Pryor	FS				12	64.5	10.2%	5.5	0	3	4	2	1
Terell Floyd	CB	5'10, 201	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	43.5	6.9%	2	0	4	3	1	0
Hakeem Smith	SS				13	40.5	6.4%	2	1	3	5	0	0
Charles Gaines	CB	5'11, 174	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	19.5	3.1%	0	0	5	7	0	0
Jermaine Reve	FS	6'0, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	18.0	2.8%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Gerod Holliman	SS	6'0, 201	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	14.5	2.3%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Andrew Johnson	CB	5'9, 186	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	9	6.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devontre Parnell	CB	5'11, 174	So.	3 stars (5.7)
Kevin Houchins	CB	5'11, 194	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Chucky Williams	SS	6'2, 207	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Richard Benjamin	FS	6'0, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Terrence Ross	S	6'1, 186	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
James Sample	S	6'2, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
D'Eric Culver	CB	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Michael Johnson	S	6'3, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

8. Circumstance vs. the secondary

With Mauldin and Marcus Smith leading a dominant pass rush, the secondary had plenty of help last year. Pass defense was an overall strength of the defense, which was particularly helpful considering Louisville opponents were usually behind and forced to pass.

The pass rush should still be pretty good, but if the line doesn't gel, and offenses are in more favorable down-and-distance situations, that will put a lot of pressure on the secondary to raise its game. And to be sure, the cornerback position is of no concern. Terell Floyd is strong, and Charles Gaines is outstanding.

But the Cards are starting over at safety with the departure of Calvin Pryor and Hakeem Smith. Jermaine Reve and Gerod Holliman saw some action as sophomores last year, and there's plenty of potential in players like Chucky Williams and Richard Benjamin. But it's hard to imagine the defense avoiding at least a little bit of a drop-off when it comes to big-play prevention.

And if the run defense is also regressing a bit ... well, that's not incredibly encouraging. There's enough talent here for Louisville to avoid becoming a bad defense, but this isn't going to be a top-10 defense this time around.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Ryan Johnson	5'11, 199	Sr.	39	41.2	5	12	11	59.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
John Wallace	6'0, 196	Jr.	80	59.6	14	4	17.5%
Joshua Appleby	6'3, 219	Jr.	9	63.3	3	0	33.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
John Wallace	6'0, 196	Jr.	52-54	18-20	90.0%	2-4	50.0%
Matthew Nakatani			3-3	0-1	0.0%	0-0

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Charles Gaines	KR	5'11, 174	Jr.	10	30.1	1
Robert Clark	KR	5'9, 173	Sr.	9	15.8	0
Kai De La Cruz	PR	6'0, 186	Sr.	10	2.9	0
Eli Rogers	PR	5'10, 182	Sr.	10	8.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	28
Field Goal Efficiency	64
Punt Return Efficiency	45
Kick Return Efficiency	40
Punt Efficiency	4
Kickoff Efficiency	104
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	83

9. Johnson and Gaines are keepers

As good a cornerback as Charles Gaines is, he's almost as good a kick returner. Gaines and Ryan Johnson gave Louisville a couple of outstanding field position weapons. Granted, a lot of those field position gains were given away by kickoff coverage, and John Wallace was only a good place-kicker, not a great one, but this was a good special teams unit in 2013, and everybody's back. That probably means good things, huh?

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
1-Sep	Miami	30
6-Sep	Murray State	NR
13-Sep	at Virginia	62
20-Sep	at Florida International	122
27-Sep	Wake Forest	83
3-Oct	at Syracuse	67
11-Oct	at Clemson	5
18-Oct	N.C. State	66
30-Oct	Florida State	1
8-Nov	at Boston College	69
22-Nov	at Notre Dame	25
29-Nov	Kentucky	75

Five-Year F/+ Rk	7.9% (39)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	51
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	17 / 10.7
TO Luck/Game	+2.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (8, 5)

10. Four top-60 opponents

One would think that a move from the AAC to ACC would result in an upgrade in schedule strength for Louisville. And to an extent, that's true. The Cardinals do host Florida State and Miami and visit both Clemson and partial ACC member Notre Dame. That's a pretty impressive ACC welcome.

Those are also the only four projected top-60 opponents Louisville has on the docket. There are plenty of potentially tricky games -- trips to Virginia, Syracuse, and Boston College are in no way slam dunks -- but you play those types of games in the AAC, as well. Louisville's SOS numbers aren't going to improve by an extreme amount, but considering the transition at play here, that might not be a bad thing.

Petrino and his new charges get a schedule custom-made for 8-4 or 9-3, and they should be good enough to reach that. Obviously a lot of the Cardinals' fortunes depend on finding an adept quarterback, but Gardner passed his spring tests, and if he's not up to standard, there are a lot of potential replacements waiting their turns.

And the rest of the offense is going to be good enough to offset a few iffy moments at quarterback. Petrino inherits a lovely stable of receivers, not to mention some big running backs, which he preferred at Arkansas. The offense seems to have the tools he requires, and that should be good enough for Louisville to play at a top-40 level even if the defense regresses as much as it might if the line doesn't take well to transition in the short term.

Louisville brought Bobby Petrino back for one simple reason: wins. The Cardinals weren't worried about scoring PR points, just scoreboard points. And while we don't know if Petrino's going to stay two years or 10 this time, he'll do what he was brought back to town to do. There will be a little bit of transition and defensive struggle in 2014, but this is definitely one of the ACC's better teams, and that will probably be the case for as long as Petrino is in town.

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