The big 2014 North Carolina football guide: Hoping for carry-over

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1. The carry-over

I've used the word "potential" 17 times in the last three years' North Carolina previews (2011, 2012, 2013). It was right there in the title of my 2012 piece, which included this passage:

Every time I start to talk myself into this North Carolina, I realize I'm using the exact same logic with which people have talked themselves into UNC for years: Sleeping Giant™, recruiting rankings, potential, potential, potential. I probably shouldn't go too far down this road without acknowledging that. Still...

So when I post something like this on Twitter...

Putting together next week's previews, and ... guys? UNC might be really good. (Offense and field position, anyway.)

— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) June 14, 2014

I expect some of the snarky responses that I receive.

Still...

Saying North Carolina could be quite good in 2014 doesn't require any sort of projection or "If..." list or simple "Just look at the recruits they've signed; they have to be good, right?" conjecture. All the Tar Heels have to do to be quite good in 2014 is play like they did for most of the last half of 2013.

The template is laid out for them: Marquise Williams carving out chunks of rushing yards and throwing to Quinshad Davis and Ryan Switzer, T.J. Logan looking like the blue-chipper he was supposed to be on the ground, Switzer breaking big punt returns left and right, and the defense preventing big plays and taking advantage of passing downs.

The Heels were basically 2013's Rice, starting poorly against a front-heavy schedule, waiting until the last moment to improve, then improving dramatically. Like Rice, they return quite a few reasons for last season's improvement. Williams, when he has his head on straight, is electric at quarterback. Davis is a proven quantity, and Switzer was the most stark revelation in the country after November 1. Young guys started living up to recruiting hype almost overnight, and in a road win over Pittsburgh and a bowl decimation of Cincinnati (not to mention an 80-20 win over an Old Dominion team that had stayed within 11 points of Pitt and 14 points of ECU), it was impossible not to get excited about this team's (gulp) potential.

If you want to doubt, though, go ahead.

• Williams served an academics-based suspension last spring and "isn't a practice player," which tends to grate on coaches' patience levels. (Indeed, head coach Larry Fedora announced an open quarterback competition this spring.)
• Davis and Switzer will have to adapt to life without safety-net tight end Eric Ebron, one of the most explosive, unique big men in the country.
• The offensive line must replace two players who started for a combined six seasons.
• The two-man pass rush is now a one-man pass rush.
• Safety Tre Boston, the single most important player for a no-big-plays defense, is now a Carolina Panther.
• And, of course, there have been teases before. Plenty of them. Most recently, UNC won 13 of 17 in 2010 and 2011, then lost seven of 10. The Heels won seven of nine to finish 2012, then lost five of six to start 2013.

Just enough important players left to leave doubt. But if we're looking for nothing but known quantities, UNC might have more of them of any ACC team outside of Florida State or Clemson. When we talk about the Heels, we can't help but use the word "potential." But it doesn't take that many ifs to make UNC a damn strong team in 2014.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 12-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 38
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	at South Carolina	10	10-27	L	15.9 - 29.3	L
7-Sep	Middle Tennessee	85	40-20	W	37.2 - 25.4	W
21-Sep	at Georgia Tech	34	20-28	L	31.6 - 22.4	W
28-Sep	East Carolina	40	31-55	L	34.7 - 31.1	W
5-Oct	at Virginia Tech	27	17-27	L	33.2 - 30.3	W	2.8
17-Oct	Miami	36	23-27	L	32.9 - 29.4	W	6.2
26-Oct	Boston College	65	34-10	W	29.0 - 13.7	W	6.9
2-Nov	at N.C. State	92	27-19	W	29.1 - 25.3	W	5.8
9-Nov	Virginia	79	45-14	W	33.7 - 26.2	W	6.6
16-Nov	at Pittsburgh	54	34-27	W	25.5 - 21.2	W	6.9
23-Nov	Old Dominion	N/A	80-20	W	44.8 - 20.1	W	11.1
30-Nov	Duke	41	25-27	L	32.1 - 28.9	W	8.7
28-Dec	vs. Cincinnati	64	39-17	W	33.1 - 19.1	W	10.7

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+6.8%	35	+2.3%	49	+1.0%	48
Points Per Game	32.7	43	24.5	43
Adj. Points Per Game	31.8	42	24.8	35

2. Last-ditch improvement

There are two ways to look at UNC's 2013 campaign.

Angle No. 1: UNC went young in the second half of the season and got better.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): UNC 30.9, Opponent 28.0 (plus-2.9)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 7 games): UNC 32.5, Opponent 22.1 (plus-10.4)

Longtime starting quarterback Bryn Renner was lost for the season after the NC State game, and UNC started Williams (sophomore) and Logan (freshman) in the backfield while giving Switzer (freshman) a more prominent role in the passing game -- 15 of his 32 receptions came in the final four games. After starting the season 1-5, the Heels were still just 3-5 when Williams took the reins, and the offense not only held steady but improved.

Meanwhile, the defense improved a lot. After allowing 5.8 yards per play during UNC's 1-5 start, the D allowed just 4.8 per play during the 6-1 finish.

Of course, there's another way to look at these results.

3. Gotta beat better teams

Angle No. 2: UNC may have gotten better, but the schedule definitely got easier.

If you rearrange the games in order of the opponents' F/+ rankings, you get a pretty different take on the season.

• Actual Points Per Game (vs. Top 50): Opponent 31.8, UNC 21.0 (minus-10.8) (record: 0-6)
• Actual Points Per Game (vs. No. 51+, sans transitioning FBS Old Dominion, an outlier): UNC 36.5, Opponent 17.8 (plus-18.7)

Against teams ranked 41st or better, UNC didn't win. There were plenty of tight losses -- 27-23 to Miami, 27-25 to Duke, 28-20 to Georgia Tech -- but the Heels couldn't get over the hump. They also couldn't keep up with the only top-20 team on the docket (South Carolina). But against lesser teams, they could use their athleticism to dominate. Throw in ODU, and they beat teams ranked 51st or worse by an average score of 43-18.

Both of these angles are true. UNC absolutely fared well against lesser teams, and the schedule just happened to be front-loaded, with five of the Heels' six top-50 opponents showing up in the first six games. But the opponent-adjusted numbers show us that UNC still improved significantly over the last half of the season. The latter gives us reason to believe the Heels will be pretty damn good in 2014; the former gives us pause.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.13	71	IsoPPP+	100.2	59
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.9%	48	Succ. Rt. +	107.7	35
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.5	22	Def. FP+	107.5	3
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	38	Redzone S&P+	99.3	64
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.5		ACTUAL	18	-0.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	49	40	35	38
RUSHING	85	71	45	66
PASSING	28	20	24	25
Standard Downs		37	29	54
Passing Downs		50	51	64

Q1 Rk	26	1st Down Rk	41
Q2 Rk	63	2nd Down Rk	36
Q3 Rk	37	3rd Down Rk	42
Q4 Rk	59

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Bryn Renner

152

231

1765

10

5

65.8%

16

6.5%

6.6

Marquise Williams

6'2, 215

Jr.

4 stars (5.8)

126

217

1698

15

6

58.1%

5

2.3%

7.5

Kanler Coker

6'4, 215

So.

3 stars (5.6)

Mitch Trubisky

6'3, 210

RSFr.

3 stars (5.6)

Caleb Henderson

6'3, 220

Fr.

4 stars (5.8)

4. All Williams needed was an opportunity

Marquise Williams has spent a decent portion of his UNC career getting in his own way. Heading into a 2013 season in which he was expected to serve as Bryn Renner's primary backup, Williams had to serve a semester-long academics suspension and missed spring ball. Still, the No. 2 job was his in the fall, and when Renner's career ended early because of a shoulder injury, Williams stepped in and did well.

His passing was hit-or-miss if you take out a nearly perfect performance against an overwhelmed Old Dominion defense (20-for-27, 409 yards, five touchdowns), but it was good enough to prevent opponents from keying on the run game, which thrived with Williams behind center. In the last four games of the season, Williams rushed 45 times for 289 yards and four touchdowns, while T.J. Logan added 55 carries for 361 yards and three scores. With minimal margin for error, Williams guided the Heels toward bowl eligibility. In what ended up being a must-win at Pitt, he led the Heels to four scores in five possessions and helped to build a big lead before stalling late. (UNC went up 27-3, Pitt scored 24 straight, and Ryan Switzer bailed the Heels out with his second punt return touchdown of the game with 4:46 left.)

Williams' accomplishment -- going from untested understudy to starter and preventing a dropoff -- was impressive, but his numbers are far from unimpeachable. And it does appear he'll have to continue fending off redshirt freshman Mitch Trubisky (and himself) in the fall to keep his job. But UNC's potential with Williams behind center is clear.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Marquise Williams	QB	6'2, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	106	560	6	5.3	3.8	43.4%
T.J. Logan	RB	5'10, 180	So.	4 stars (6.0)	93	533	4	5.7	3.4	53.8%
A.J. Blue	RB				74	298	1	4.0	2.4	37.8%
Romar Morris	RB	5'10, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	69	296	5	4.3	4.9	34.8%
Khris Francis	RB	5'9, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	63	236	1	3.7	3.3	30.2%
Bryn Renner	QB				30	100	2	3.3	2.0	40.0%
Ryan Switzer	WR	5'10, 175	So.	3 stars (5.7)	10	29	0	2.9	1.9	40.0%
Charles Brunson	RB	6'0, 200	Jr.	NR	9	58	0	6.4	7.0	44.4%
Elijah Hood	RB	6'0, 220	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Eric Ebron	TE				96	62	973	64.6%	22.2%	56.0%	10.1	223	10.7	135.3
Quinshad Davis	WR	6'4, 205	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	69	48	730	69.6%	15.9%	62.9%	10.6	171	10.0	101.5
Ryan Switzer	WR	5'10, 175	So.	3 stars (5.7)	43	32	341	74.4%	9.9%	80.6%	7.9	-20	10.3	47.4
Sean Tapley	WR				38	21	241	55.3%	8.8%	55.9%	6.3	-34	6.9	33.5
Bug Howard	WR	6'4, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	37	22	278	59.5%	8.5%	45.8%	7.5	0	8.4	38.7
T.J. Thorpe	WR	6'0, 200	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	33	24	267	72.7%	7.6%	50.0%	8.1	-7	8.8	37.1
A.J. Blue	RB				24	18	140	75.0%	5.5%	68.4%	5.8	-62	5.5	19.5
Jack Tabb	TE	6'3, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	20	7	119	35.0%	4.6%	58.8%	6.0	-2	6.3	16.5
Romar Morris	RB	5'10, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	18	12	63	66.7%	4.2%	35.3%	3.5	-80	3.9	8.8
T.J. Logan	RB	5'10, 180	So.	4 stars (6.0)	17	10	124	58.8%	3.9%	38.5%	7.3	-3	7.9	17.2
Khris Francis	RB	5'9, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	11	82	91.7%	2.8%	50.0%	6.8	-31	7.2	11.4
Kendrick Singleton	WR	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	6	66	54.5%	2.5%	80.0%	6.0	-13	5.9	9.2
Mark McNeill	WR	6'4, 215	Sr.	NR	9	6	107	66.7%	2.1%	28.6%	11.9	36	10.5	14.9
Nic Platt	WR				3	1	23	33.3%	0.7%	N/A	7.7	5	0.0	3.2
Damien Washington	WR	6'1, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Brandon Fritts	TE	6'4, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Devin Perry	WR	6'2, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Avery Edwards	TE	6'5, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

5. Ryan Switzer, receiver

By the end of the season, few receiving duos had accomplished more than Eric Ebron and Quinshad Davis. Ebron's elite athleticism made him a first-round draft pick; he caught 112 passes for 1,805 yards (16.1 per catch) and eight touchdowns in his career. And in just two years, Davis has caught 109 balls for 1,506 yards and 15 scores. Both players averaged better than 10.0 yards per target in 2013 despite shuffling at quarterback.

With Ebron now preparing for his first season with the Detroit Lions, Davis needs a new dance partner. Granted, nobody in the UNC receiving corps is going to be capable of producing the same matchup advantages and size-to-explosiveness ratio as Ebron, but quality is quality, and UNC will need a little more of it.

Enter Ryan Switzer. While Johnathan Howard, also a freshman in 2013, had some promising moments (seven catches for 105 yards against N.C. State and Virginia), Switzer broke out late in the season. Granted, that was more because of his otherworldly run of punt returns (five touchdowns, all after November 8), he became a threat in the passing game as well. After catching just 17 passes for 126 yards through nine games, he caught 15 for 215 and two touchdowns in the final four. When people talk about the proverbial lightbulb coming on for freshmen, they have Switzer's explosion in mind.

Switzer is already part of the most potent 1-2 punch in the country when it comes to special teams -- he and punter Tommy Hibbard are dominant field position weapons -- but if Switzer can also become a reliable No. 2 man in the receiving corps, everything else falls into place nicely. Davis is a proven No. 1, and players like Howard, T.J. Thorpe and perhaps incoming freshman Devin Perry can play complementary roles. Plus, senior tight end Jack Tabb showed at least a little bit of big play ability in 2013.

There are options here, as long as somebody becomes a dependable No. 2.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.1	3.12	2.71	40.5%	65.1%	16.8%	172.4	3.1%	4.7%
Rank	52	38	110	54	80	31	10	26	38

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
James Hurst	LT				49	1st All-ACC
Russell Bodine	C				27
Landon Turner	RG	6'4, 320	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	17
Jon Heck	RT	6'6, 300	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13
Caleb Peterson	LG	6'5, 300	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12
Kiaro Holts	RT	6'4, 295	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	1
Jarrod James	C				0
David Collins	RG				0
Nick Appel	RT				0
Will Dancy	LG	6'4, 295	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	0
J.J. Patterson	LG	6'4, 310	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0
Lucas Crowley	C	6'3, 270	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
John Ferranto	LT	6'5, 290	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
R.J. Prince	LT	6'6, 310	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Brad Henson	RG	6'5, 295	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Bentley Spain	LT	6'6, 285	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jared Cohen	OL	6'4, 295	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Josh Allen	OL	6'3, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

6. Keeping defenders out of the backfield

UNC's offensive line did its job in 2013. It maintained solid sack rates despite the late-season insertion of a dual-threat quarterback (dual-threats have the nasty tendency to take a ton of sacks), and while its run numbers as a whole were no more than slightly above average, it kept defenders out of the backfield, ranking 31st in Stuff Rate. Even if you're not generating tons of opportunities upfield, and even if you struggle in short-yardage situations (as UNC did in 2013), if you keep defenders from making tackles for loss and moving you backwards, you can maintain a pretty efficient offense. UNC had that in 2013, and it could again, but only if the Heels successfully replace tackle James Hurst and center Russell Bodine, who combined for 76 career starts.

UNC has recruited well up front and still returns four players who have combined for 43 career starts. And in all, returning three starters signifies solid continuity. But Hurst in particular was really good, and a dropoff is at least conceivable.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.06	26	IsoPPP+	109.7	21
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.2%	58	Succ. Rt. +	103.5	45
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.4	85	Off. FP+	98.5	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	33	Redzone S&P+	113.3	22
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.3		ACTUAL	21.0	-3.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	64	34	45	49
RUSHING	83	49	57	62
PASSING	50	25	28	30
Standard Downs		43	59	27
Passing Downs		16	27	20

Q1 Rk	37	1st Down Rk	46
Q2 Rk	21	2nd Down Rk	15
Q3 Rk	55	3rd Down Rk	33
Q4 Rk	19

7. Opponents knew to run

UNC's 2013 defense was basically good at three things: rushing the passer, preventing big plays, and stiffening near the end zone. Hey, if you can only be good at three things, that's a pretty decent list. But the run defense was a bit of a problem, and opponents knew it. UNC faced a heavy dose of rushing, especially on standard downs; opponents rushed 66.6 percent of the time on standard downs against the Heels, seventh most in the country. (Two of the teams above them on the list -- Army and Air Force -- played at least two flexbone teams, while UNC played only one: Georgia Tech.)

Now, the ACC was a relatively run-heavy league -- Florida State faced 66.1 percent runs on standard downs (eighth), Clemson 64.9 percent (13th), etc. But UNC still faced a higher percentage than anybody else in the league, and it wasn't hard to see why. Injuries thinned out the front four a big, and the size of ends like Nortkeithus Otis and Junior Gnonkonde wasn't exactly a run deterrent. Plus, passing wasn't the safest proposition.

With Kareem Martin, the only end with decent size, gone, it's hard to see opponents choosing against the run this time around either. But as with last year, UNC should have pretty good linebacker play, and that should at least help to prevent big plays, even if efficiency is still an issue.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.1	3.13	3.31	39.1%	59.6%	19.3%	127.3	5.8%	8.7%
Rank	71	92	66	63	22	60	20	33	27

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kareem Martin	DE				13	64.0	8.1%	21.5	11.5	0	3	3	0
Norkeithus Otis	BANDIT	6'1, 240	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	43.0	5.4%	14.0	8.5	1	2	3	0
Tim Jackson	DT				13	20.0	2.5%	0.5	0.5	0	2	0	0
Ethan Farmer	NT	6'3, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	19.5	2.5%	2.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Junior Gnonkonde	DE	6'4, 240	So.	3 stars (5.7)	13	18.0	2.3%	0.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
Justin Thomason	DT	6'4, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	14.5	1.8%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Devonte Brown	DT	6'3, 280	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	8.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Shakeel Rashad	BANDIT	6'2, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	5	7.0	0.9%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Mikey Bart	BANDIT	6'3, 245	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8	6.5	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Shawn Underwood	NT	6'1, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	9	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	1
Jessie Rogers	DE	6'4, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Greg Webb	NT	6'2, 310	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Dajaun Drennon	DE	6'4, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Nazair Jones	DT	6'5, 250	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Robert Dinkins	DE	6'2, 235	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. Otis needs a bandmate

UNC ranked 20th in Adj. Sack Rate, which was impressive considering only two players managed more than 2.5 sacks. Martin and Otis combined for 20 sacks, six forced fumbles, and six passes defensed; once opponents were leveraged into passing downs (which sometimes took a while), these two wrecked shop.

Now Martin's gone, and Otis needs a new complement. Gnonkonde didn't do much damage in a backup role last year, so the Heels might have to turn to Shakeel Rashad or youngsters like Mikey Bart, Dajuan Drennon, and freshman Robert Dinkins. Or they'll have to blitz more. If the pass rush suffers and the run defense fails to improve, that is, shall we say, problematic.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jeff Schoettmer	MIKE	6'1, 220	Jr.	NR	13	65.5	8.3%	4.5	0.5	0	3	0	0
Travis Hughes	WILL	6'2, 225	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	12	58.0	7.3%	5.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Darius Lipford	MIKE	6'3, 245	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	24.0	3.0%	6.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
Nathan Staub	MIKE	6'2, 240	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8	14.5	1.8%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jack Tabb	WILL	6'3, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	9.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dan Mastromatteo	MIKE	6'2, 230	So.	3 stars (5.6)	7	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Jackson	WILL	6'2, 210	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Tyrell Tomlin	LB	6'0, 220	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Cayson Collins	LB	6'1, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tre Boston	FS				13	71.5	9.0%	4.5	0	5	8	0	0
Jabari Price	CB				13	71.0	9.0%	4.5	0	0	9	1	0
Dominique Green	SS	5'11, 185	So.	NR	13	46.5	5.9%	1.5	0	3	5	0	0
Tim Scott	FS	5'11, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	43.0	5.4%	2	1	2	3	0	0
Malik Simmons	RAM	5'11, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	39.0	4.9%	2	0	0	1	0	0
Brandon Ellerbe	RAM				13	21.5	2.7%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Brian Walker	CB	5'11, 175	So.	3 stars (5.7)	13	19.5	2.5%	0	0	1	6	0	0
Sam Smiley (2012)	FS	5'11, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	7	19.0	2.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Terry Shankle	CB				8	17.5	2.2%	4	2	0	2	0	0
Darien Rankin	SS	5'11, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	10.5	1.3%	0	0	1	1	0	0
T.J. Jiles	CB	5'11, 165	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	9.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alex Dixon	CB	6'0, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	8.5	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Desmond Lawrence	CB	6'1, 175	So.	3 stars (5.7)	8	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Damien Washington	S	6'1, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Mangum	RAM	6'0, 195	Jr.	NR	13	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kameron Jackson	FS	5'11, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Donnie Miles	RAM	5'11, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
M.J. Stewart	DB	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

9. Replacing Tre

Let's play Optimist vs. Pessimist. An optimist sees Otis back, along with every linebacker of consequence and a pair of safeties (Dominique Green and Tim Scott) who combined for 13 passes defensed and 3.5 tackles for loss. An optimist also sees corner Brian Walker, who made some plays as a freshman, and stellar experience at defensive tackle.

A pessimist sees the loss of Martin as a killer up front. A pessimist also sees the loss of Tre Boston as a deal-breaker. If UNC relied on big-play prevention to eventually make stops, and if the Heels lose their single best reason for big-play prevention, that's an issue, right? Green, Scott, and Malik Simmons give the Heels experience at safety, as does the return of safety Sam Smiley from injury. But Boston and Jabari Price still combined for nine tackles for loss and 22 passes defensed, and as a whole UNC hasn't recruited as well in the defensive backfield as it has in other positions. You lose that level of play-making abilty, and you don't necessarily get it back.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tommy Hibbard	5'10, 190	Sr.	65	43.0	6	12	25	56.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Nick Weiler	6'0, 195	Jr.	67	62.9	19	1	28.4%
Thomas Moore	5'10, 200	Sr.	14	61.4	4	0	28.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Thomas Moore	5'10, 200	Sr.	46-48	13-14	92.9%	1-5	20.0%
Cody Johnson			3-3	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
T.J. Thorpe	KR	6'0, 200	Jr.	20	21.2	0
T.J. Logan	KR	5'10, 180	So.	19	26.9	2
Ryan Switzer	PR	5'10, 175	So.	24	20.9	5
T.J. Thorpe	PR	6'0, 200	Jr.	5	8.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	48
Field Goal Efficiency	114
Punt Return Efficiency	8
Kick Return Efficiency	100
Punt Efficiency	2
Kickoff Efficiency	90
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	94

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Liberty	NR
6-Sep	San Diego State	81
20-Sep	at East Carolina	57
27-Sep	at Clemson	5
4-Oct	Virginia Tech	19
11-Oct	at Notre Dame	25
18-Oct	Georgia Tech	44
25-Oct	at Virginia	62
1-Nov	Miami	NR
15-Nov	Pittsburgh	39
20-Nov	at Duke	56
29-Nov	N.C. State	66

Five-Year F/+ Rk	8.2% (37)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	31
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	3 / 5.8
TO Luck/Game	-1.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (8, 7)

10. 9/27 to 10/11

Larry Fedora has what a lot of UNC coaches have had in recent history: a team loaded with potential. And it's technically not fair to lump Fedora in with previous disappointments; he hasn't been around long enough. But his 2014 Heels have just enough question marks to scare you away from committing to a team that has a lot of exciting young pieces.

There's good news, however.

1. We don't have to wait long to find out what UNC will be in 2014. After a tricky road trip to face ECU on September 20, the Heels embark on one hell of a three-game stretch: at Clemson, Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame. UNC could be 2-4 or 5-1 when Georgia Tech comes to town on October 18. Needless to say, the stories will be writing themselves at that point either way.
2. Whatever UNC is in 2014, it will probably improve in 2015, when (in theory) Williams, Switzer, Logan, Davis, and perhaps the entire starting offensive line return, along with up to seven or eight defensive starters. (So if you're hesitant to jump on the bandwagon, know you'll have another opportunity in 12 months.)

Eventually, we all get seduced by UNC's Sleeping Giant™ potential. I'm trying as hard as I can not to succumb, but it's getting difficult.