The big 2014 Florida State football guide: Just accept it

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1. Acceptance

All you can do is put a really good product on the field every year, execute as well as you can, roll the dice each year, and hope that you get the breaks you need at some point. Hope that one year you don't lose to NC State.

-- 2013 Florida State football's 10 things to know

I cannot say for sure that fans of Florida State's rivals and college football in general followed each of the five stages of grief when it came to FSU's revival. There was certainly plenty of Stage 1 (denial), and at least a little bit of Stage 2 (anger). And if SB Nation's primary Florida representatives are any indication, there's certainly plenty of Stage 4 (depression) to go around, about FSU and plenty of other matters.

But following the Seminoles' romp through the 2013 season, there was no more doubt about whether FSU's glory days were left in the past. There was no more wondering if the Seminoles could come through when it counted the most under Jimbo Fisher. And there was no more doubting what Fisher has built.

Florida State had improved in each of Fisher's first three seasons since succeeding Bobby Bowden in 2010. After sinking to 42nd in the F/+ rankings in Bowden's final year, the Seminoles improved to 18th in 2010, then 10th in 2011, then fifth in 2012. There was always something holding FSU back and allowing naysayers to believe they weren't as close as they were. Injuries and youth crippled the offensive line in 2011 and prevented the offense from gaining steam. And in 2012, a nearly complete machine still figured out a way to sputter and collapse late against NC State.

Haters had their narratives, but FSU had the numbers. And in 2013, one extra piece -- a confident, calm, quarterback -- pushed the 'Noles over the top.

Best teams since 2005 (according to F/+)
1. Alabama 2011 (+53.9%)
2. Alabama 2012 (+50.6%)
3. Florida 2008 (+49.4%)
4. Florida State 2013 (+49.2%)
5. USC 2008 (+47.6%)

With a devastating, experienced offensive line, a deep array of skill position support, and a defense that was too big, too fast, and too well-coached to falter, Jameis Wisnton and Florida State not only won the national title in 2013 but did so with almost no challenges. Until the BCS Championship game against Auburn, a 48-34 win at Boston College was the only FSU game decided by fewer than 27 points. A relatively weak schedule allowed critics to continue residence in the Denial stage, but what was taking shape was pretty obvious.

In the end, nothing could stop FSU's run -- not a slow start in the BCS Championship, not Auburn's late-game Malzahn magic, not Auburn assistant Dameyune Craig's familiarity with FSU's signals and play-calling (Craig was FSU's quarterbacks coach for three years before becoming Gus Malzahn's offensive co-coordinator), and not Winston's participation in the calorie-heavy Heisman banquet circuit. In their first close game of the year, the Seminoles came back from a 21-10 halftime deficit to take the national title, 34-31, in the closing seconds.

FSU is back. Obviously. The only thing the Seminoles have to prove in 2014 is how they can handle encores and expectations. Winston is back, as are quite a few of the names you got to know last season. There are a couple of interesting road land mines on the schedule, and we'll do our best to find some weaknesses below, but any conversation about 2014 title contenders must start with FSU.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 14-0 | Adj. Record: 14-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 1
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
2-Sep	at Pittsburgh	54	41-13	W	54.3 - 25.2	W
14-Sep	Nevada	88	62-7	W	46.7 - 13.1	W
21-Sep	Bethune-Cookman	N/A	54-6	W	40.7 - 19.2	W
28-Sep	at Boston College	65	48-34	W	43.7 - 27.8	W
5-Oct	Maryland	63	63-0	W	51.5 - 11.7	W	28.0
19-Oct	at Clemson	16	51-14	W	55.6 - 14.0	W	30.4
26-Oct	N.C. State	92	49-17	W	46.8 - 17.9	W	29.5
2-Nov	Miami	36	41-14	W	41.0 - 18.5	W	29.7
9-Nov	at Wake Forest	81	59-3	W	25.7 - 5.3	W	30.6
16-Nov	Syracuse	75	59-3	W	73.0 - 13.2	W	34.6
23-Nov	Idaho	116	80-14	W	35.3 - 22.6	W	28.9
30-Nov	at Florida	48	37-7	W	40.9 - 12.9	W	28.7
7-Dec	vs. Duke	41	45-7	W	44.6 - 10.8	W	30.9
6-Jan	vs. Auburn	4	34-31	W	28.5 - 19.5	W	28.6

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+21.5%	3	+25.7%	1	+2.0%	27
Points Per Game	51.6	2	12.1	1
Adj. Points Per Game	44.9	1	16.5	2

2. A nearly flawless season

Seasons tend to take on a certain ebb-and-flow quality. A young team gets better as the year progresses. An older team peaks early but slips late. An injury or two cause clear regression. There are ups and downs for almost everybody. But there were only ups for Florida State. There was a peak in the middle, I guess, but it was all pretty fantastic.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): FSU 46.4, Opponent 21.3 (plus-25.1)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): FSU 48.7, Opponent 15.5 (plus-33.2)
• Adj. Points Per Game (final 6 games): FSU 41.3, Opponent 14.1 (plus-27.2)

On average, FBS teams scored around 28 points per game last year. Using that as your guide, you see that FSU played below average offense just once -- against Wake Forest, in a game the 'Noles won by 56 (Wake handed FSU some easy early points, and the 'Noles just tried to sit on the ball for the most part) -- and only came close to playing below average defense once (against Andre Williams and BC). FSU allowed 2.6 yards per play to Wake Forest one week, then averaged 11.6 per play against Syracuse the next.

This was a killing machine.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.39	1	IsoPPP+	116.9	6
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	54.5%	2	Succ. Rt. +	130.4	2
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.1	15	Def. FP+	102.4	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.5	2	Redzone S&P+	139.0	2
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.4		ACTUAL	18	-1.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	6	1	2	9
RUSHING	28	14	14	32
PASSING	14	1	1	12
Standard Downs		4	9	2
Passing Downs		1	1	53

Q1 Rk	14	1st Down Rk	13
Q2 Rk	4	2nd Down Rk	3
Q3 Rk	1	3rd Down Rk	5
Q4 Rk	14

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jameis Winston	6'4, 235	So.	5 stars (6.1)	257	384	4057	40	10	66.9%	27	6.6%	9.4
Jacob Coker				18	36	250	0	1	50.0%	5	12.2%	5.1
Sean Maguire	6'3, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13	21	116	2	2	61.9%	1	4.5%	5.0
John Franklin III	6'0, 171	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
J.J. Cosentino	6'4, 216	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

3. Hey, Jameis

We so often end up in a gray area when sports are involved, attempting to talk about an athlete's performance while tuning out a less-than-stellar track record in real life. And off the field, Jameis Winston has brought to the table plenty of shades of gray.

On one hand, Winston has never been charged with anything worse than stealing crab legs (and even then, he was "charged" more than he was charged). On the other, he was investigated for his role in a sexual assault and was perhaps never charged simply because of shaky/shady investigation tactics on the part of the Tallahassee police department. Since he has never been charged with anything serious, we continue to talk about him as a Heisman winner and national champion while a giant elephant just hangs out over in the corner of the room.

For the purposes of this preview, we'll just acknowledge the elephant, roll our eyes about how Jameis' judgment and decision-making off the field need to quickly catch up to those same on-field abilities, and move on, knowing that we might not know everything we should (and that we also know more than we want to).

Off-the-field issues aside, here's something rather incontrovertible: Winston is one hell of an athlete. In two seasons on the FSU baseball team, he has compiled a 1.95 ERA with nine saves and 52 strikeouts. And in just one season on the FSU football team, he threw 40 touchdown passes, helped the Seminoles to improve from 23rd in Off. F/+ to third, won the Heisman, and led FSU to a national title. As the rumblings from the sexual assault investigation were growing louder, he just continued to dominate. When it comes to shutting out noise and focusing on football, it was as admirable a performance as one can remember ... at least until you think about why the noise existed in the first place.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Devonta Freeman	RB				173	1016	14	5.9	5.8	42.2%
Karlos Williams	RB	6'1, 219	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	91	730	11	8.0	7.5	52.7%
James Wilder, Jr.	RB				81	563	8	7.0	6.2	49.4%
Jameis Winston	QB	6'4, 235	So.	5 stars (6.1)	61	407	4	6.7	4.2	55.7%
Ryan Green	RB	5'10, 195	So.	4 stars (6.0)	33	163	1	4.9	8.0	33.3%
Freddie Stevenson	FB	6'1, 230	So.	4 stars (5.8)	8	33	1	4.1	1.9	37.5%
Chad Abram	FB				7	29	0	4.1	1.2	42.9%
Jacob Coker	QB				5	55	1	11.0	6.1	80.0%
Mario Pender	RB	5'10, 194	So.	4 stars (6.0)
Dalvin Cook	RB	5'11, 192	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Rashad Greene	WR	6'0, 178	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	113	76	1128	67.3%	27.2%	63.0%	10.0	228	11.1	227.6
Kelvin Benjamin	WR				87	54	1011	62.1%	20.9%	60.0%	11.6	345	11.6	204.0
Kenny Shaw	WR				76	54	933	71.1%	18.3%	54.2%	12.3	310	13.5	188.2
Nick O'Leary	TE	6'3, 244	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	42	33	557	78.6%	10.1%	40.7%	13.3	194	11.0	112.4
Devonta Freeman	RB				25	22	278	88.0%	6.0%	42.9%	11.1	48	11.6	56.1
Christian Green	WR	6'2, 207	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	20	13	157	65.0%	4.8%	87.5%	7.9	0	10.1	31.7
Jarred Haggins (2012)	WR	6'0, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	8	108	61.5%	3.1%	61.5%	8.3	N/A	8.4	15.9
Karlos Williams	RB	6'1, 219	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	12	8	63	66.7%	2.9%	100.0%	5.3	-32	1.9	12.7
Chad Abram	FB				10	9	73	90.0%	2.4%	75.0%	7.3	-20	8.8	14.7
Isaiah Jones	WR	6'4, 193	So.	4 stars (5.8)	6	2	31	33.3%	1.4%	N/A	5.2	-5	0.0	6.3
Jesus Wilson	WR	5'9, 177	So.	3 stars (5.7)	6	3	23	50.0%	1.4%	N/A	3.8	-19	0.0	4.6
Freddie Stevenson	FB	6'1, 230	So.	4 stars (5.8)	4	2	18	50.0%	1.0%	N/A	4.5	-10	0.0	3.6
Kermit Whitfield	WR	5'7, 184	So.	4 stars (5.8)	4	4	78	100.0%	1.0%	N/A	19.5	38	0.0	15.7
Kevin Haplea	TE	6'4, 246	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)
Jeremy Kerr	TE	6'5, 251	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Ermon Lane	WR	6'2, 172	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
Travis Rudolph	WR	6'0, 189	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
Javon Harrison	WR	6'2, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

4. Searching for flaws: injuries could lead to youth

Winston's a hell of a quarterback, and his supporting cast returns an incredible number of potential (and verified) studs. Converted defensive back Karlos Williams takes over at running back; in a backup role last season, he proved both explosive and devastatingly efficient, and with another offseason of acclimation to the position, there's little reason to doubt that he'll be one of the nation's better running backs.

Meanwhile, Winston's No. 1 target, Rashad Greene, is also back; he's either one of the most explosive possession receivers in the country or one of the most efficient big-play guys. Take your pick. Tight end Nick O'Leary, who really needs to stay off of anything that has only two wheels, should be healthy this fall; if so, he's one of the best, meanest tight ends in the country.

And then there's the offensive line. Despite the loss of All-American Bryan Stork, FSU returns five players who have combined for 114 career starts, one of the highest totals in the country.

The starting 11 for this offense is nearly unassailable. It is big, fast, strong, and experienced. But if we're looking for potential cracks, if we're looking for weaknesses that might appear this season -- and lord knows we have to look pretty hard -- it does bear mentioning that the second string will be pretty inexperienced. After Williams, FSU running backs have combined for only 33 carries, all from sophomore Ryan Green. After Greene, the next four leading receivers from 2013 combined for only 22 catches. And after a potentially all-senior starting five up front, we're looking at a whole lot of redshirt freshmen and newcomers on the OL depth chart.

And then, of course, there's Winston himself. Backup Jacob Coker transferred to Alabama, leaving 21 career passes (all from Sean Maguire, all in mop-up time) among FSU's backups. If FSU is hit pretty hard by injuries in 2014, the Seminoles could end up quite a few freshmen and little-used sophomores on the field.

Granted, that's an "if" that could be used for just about every team in the country. And granted, FSU has recruited well enough that a lot of these youngsters came with an impressive pedigree -- four-star freshman quarterback J.J. Cosentino, four-star sophomore running backs Green and Mario Pender, five-star freshman running back Dalvin Cook, four-star sophomore receivers Isaiah Jones and Kermit Whitfield, five-star freshman receivers Ermon Lane and Travis Rudolph, et cetera. I told you it was pretty hard to come up with weaknesses here, and this was the best I could do.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113.1	3.41	3.13	47.5%	78.6%	15.9%	101.2	5.4%	7.2%
Rank	16	10	78	8	8	15	68	84	71

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Bryan Stork	C				41	Consensus All-American, Rimington Trophy, 1st All-ACC
Cameron Erving	LT	6'6, 302	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	28	All-American, 1st All-ACC
Tre' Jackson	RG	6'4, 339	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	30	1st All-ACC
Josue Matias	LG	6'6, 331	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	29
Bobby Hart	RT	6'4, 318	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	23
Jacob Fahrenkrug	RT				12
Austin Barron	C	6'3, 292	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	4
Jonathan Wallace	LT				0
Sterling Lovelady	LG				0
Ruben Carter	RG	6'4, 299	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Wilson Bell	LT	6'4, 306	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Chad Mavety	OL	6'6, 320	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)
Kareem Are	LG	6'6, 335	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Roderick Johnson	OL	6'7, 310	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Corey Martinez	OL	6'4, 290	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Alec Eberle	OL	6'4, 270	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.03	10	IsoPPP+	118.0	4
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	32.5%	3	Succ. Rt. +	128.3	3
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.5	17	Off. FP+	103.5	23
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.2	4	Redzone S&P+	117.6	17
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.5		ACTUAL	35.0	+9.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	3	3	3	4
RUSHING	18	4	3	10
PASSING	1	4	8	4
Standard Downs		2	3	2
Passing Downs		12	30	4

Q1 Rk	6	1st Down Rk	2
Q2 Rk	1	2nd Down Rk	11
Q3 Rk	2	3rd Down Rk	9
Q4 Rk	35

5. Searching for flaws: Jeremy Pruitt did a spectacular job

Before Jeremy Pruitt arrived in Tallahassee in 2013, the FSU defense was already awfully good. The Seminoles ranked third in Def. F/+ in 2011 and fifth in 2012. They were too much for most opponents, and even random glitches -- 394 yards and a late explosion of points against Florida in 2012, 5.5 yards per play and 37 points to Clemson in 2012, 5.3 yards per play and 35 points in an upset loss against Wake Forest in 2011 -- were pretty minor. The national average for yards per play is in the 5.7 neighborhood, and FSU hadn't allowed that in the two years prior to Pruitt's arrival.

But Pruitt still figured out how to make one hell of a difference. FSU had the best defense in the country last season -- better than Michigan State's, better than Alabama's, better than Virginia Tech's. He brought discipline and the Alabama structure to the 'Noles, and when combined with a loaded two-deep of play-makers from front (tackle Timmy Jernigan) to middle (linebacker Telvin Smith) to back (corners Lamarcus Joyner and P.J. Williams, safeties Terrence Brooks and Nate Andrews), the results were ridiculous and impressive.

Pruitt got lured away to Georgia in the offseason, however. Plus, four of the six players I just mentioned are gone. Coordinator Charles Kelly, last year's FSU linebackers coach, now takes over a younger defense, and while the 'Noles have talent and athleticism to burn, there has to be at least a modicum of concern here.

With the No. 3 and No. 5 defenses, FSU was vulnerable to upsets. If the defense is only top-10 caliber and the offense has its first bad game since 2012, then that puts FSU on upset watch.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	122.7	2.54	2.72	30.8%	78.6%	19.0%	103.1	7.1%	6.7%
Rank	7	16	16	4	112	65	58	16	65

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Timmy Jernigan	DT				14	49.0	6.4%	11.0	4.5	0	1	0	0
Mario Edwards, Jr.	DE	6'3, 294	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	11	23.5	3.1%	9.5	3.5	1	1	1	1
Jacobbi McDaniel	DT				14	22.0	2.9%	2.5	0.5	1	1	0	0
Chris Casher	DE	6'4, 243	So.	4 stars (6.0)	10	20.0	2.6%	5.0	2.0	0	2	1	1
Demonte McAllister	DT				11	14.5	1.9%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
DeMarcus Walker	DE	6'3, 273	So.	4 stars (6.0)	10	13.5	1.8%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Eddie Goldman	DT	6'4, 314	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	10	13.5	1.8%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Desmond Hollin	DT	6'3, 286	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	7	12.0	1.6%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Nile Lawrence-Stample	DT	6'1, 319	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	11.5	1.5%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Derrick Mitchell, Jr.	DT	6'4, 292	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	4	6.0	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Shanks	DT	6'2, 322	So.	4 stars (5.8)	2	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Giorgio Newberry	DT	6'6, 280	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)
Keith Bryant	DT	6'2, 308	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Derrick Nnadi	DT	6'1, 299	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Demarcus Christmas	DT	6'3, 285	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Rick Leonard	DE	6'7, 250	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

6. Searching for flaws: Not many proven entities at tackle

Even with the loss of Joyner and Brooks in the secondary, it's hard to fear too much for FSU's back four. The Seminoles still have Andrews and Williams, and while safety Jalen Ramsey didn't make a ton of individual plays as a freshman starter in 2013, he didn't need to. Safety Tyler Hunter returns to the rotation following an early-season neck injury, and players like Ronald Darby and Nick Waisome have shown plenty of play-making ability when given the opportunity.

There are a couple of unsettled issues for the defense, however. For one thing, last year's top three tackles are gone, including Jernigan, whose play helped to turn the BCS title game around. Juniors Eddie Goldman and Nile Lawrence-Stample are keepers and could play just as well as last year's tackles if given the opportunity, but they've only proven so much, and there's almost nothing else proven behind them. There are options, but few proven commodities.

Meanwhile, at linebacker, FSU still needs to figure out its rotation. Two starters who combined for 17.5 tackles for loss are gone, and a potential starter, sophomore Ukeme Eligwe, is battling injury. Again, former blue-chippers abound. But we're searching for potential flaws, not actual ones, and until former stud recruits like Matthew Thomas and E.J. Levenberry live up to hype, we don't know that they will.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Telvin Smith	WILL				14	75.5	9.9%	9.5	2.0	3	4	0	1
Terrance Smith	MIKE	6'4, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	46.5	6.1%	2.5	2.0	1	3	0	0
Christian Jones	SAM				13	44.0	5.7%	8.0	2.0	1	0	0	0
Reggie Northrup	WILL	6'1, 217	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	10	34.0	4.4%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
E.J. Levenberry	SAM	6'3, 237	So.	4 stars (5.9)	10	28.5	3.7%	1.0	0.0	1	1	1	0
Ukeme Eligwe	SAM	6'2, 233	So.	4 stars (6.0)	11	23.0	3.0%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Dan Hicks	SAM				10	18.0	2.3%	5.5	1.0	1	1	0	0
Matthew Thomas	MIKE	6'3, 224	RSFr.	5 stars (6.1)	4	4.0	0.5%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ro'Derrick Hoskins	WILL	6'2, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Delvin Purifoy	LB	6'2, 228	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Jacob Pugh	LB	6'4, 236	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Kain Daub	LB	6'3, 240	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Lamarcus Joyner	CB				14	57.0	7.4%	7	5.5	2	4	3	0
Terrence Brooks	SS				13	47.0	6.1%	8	1	2	5	2	0
Jalen Ramsey	FS	6'1, 198	So.	5 stars (6.1)	14	43.0	5.6%	2	1	1	1	1	1
Nate Andrews	SS	5'11, 209	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	29.5	3.9%	1	1	4	4	3	0
P.J. Williams	CB	6'0, 196	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	28.0	3.7%	1.5	0	3	7	0	0
Lamarcus Brutus	SS	6'0, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	8	15.0	2.0%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Keelin Smith	CB	6'3, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	9	13.5	1.8%	1	0	1	1	0	0
Ronald Darby	CB	5'11, 188	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	9	12.5	1.6%	0	0	2	4	0	1
Nick Waisome	CB	5'10, 182	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	8	10.5	1.4%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Marquez White	CB	6'0, 168	So.	4 stars (5.8)	7	10.0	1.3%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Gerald Demps	CB				6	9.0	1.2%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Tyler Hunter	SS	5'11, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	3	7.5	1.0%	0	0	1	2	0	0
Colin Blake	DB	6'3, 200	So.	4 stars (5.8)	3	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyrell Lyons	FS	6'0, 213	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Trey Marshall	DB	6'0, 192	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

7. So many future pros

For a lot of teams, I create a list of ifs to figure out what it will take for them to reach a certain height. For FSU, I've been using them to figure out how low I can make the floor.

Injuries, youth, etc., can strike any team, but it's impossible to write an FSU preview and not talk about how many future pros were on the field last year and how many will be on the field this year.

The Seminoles had seven players picked in the 2014 NFL Draft and currently boast top draft prospects at running back (Karlos Williams), receiver (Rashad Greene), tight end (Nick O'Leary), offensive tackle (Cameron Erving), offensive guard (Tre' Jackson, Josue Matias), center (Austin Barron, though he's a rung below others), and strong safety (Tyler Hunter). Depending on which underclassmen go pro, they could also end up with high draft picks at quarterback (Jameis Winston), defensive end (Mario Edwards, Jr.), defensive tackle (Eddie Goldman), linebacker (Terrance Smith), and cornerback (P.J. Williams, Ronald Darby).

That's just ridiculous. Yes, injuries could strike. Yes, there could be some hangover issues after last year's success. Yes, the 'Noles could get some bad breaks and get upset. There's a reason why teams rarely repeat as national champions. But if you're looking at both upside and proven entities, FSU is suddenly in better shape than even Alabama.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Cason Beatty	6'3, 224	Jr.	42	41.1	2	12	12	57.1%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Roberto Aguayo	6'1, 209	So.	120	60.8	45	5	37.5%
Clay Pickler			8	56.6	2	1	25.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Roberto Aguayo	6'1, 209	So.	94-94	12-12	100.0%	9-10	90.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Kermit Whitfield	KR	5'7, 184	So.	17	36.4	2
Lamarcus Joyner	KR			5	22.0	0
Kenny Shaw	PR			26	9.7	0
Jesus Wilson	PR	5'9, 177	So.	8	11.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	27
Field Goal Efficiency	6
Punt Return Efficiency	59
Kick Return Efficiency	4
Punt Efficiency	116
Kickoff Efficiency	44
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	13

8. When your punt coverage is your biggest weakness...

...you know you're doing pretty well. That said, FSU's punting game really was atrocious in 2013. Cason Beatty's averages were decent, but his per-kick efficiency was shaky, as was his coverage unit. FSU ranked in the bottom 10 of punt efficiency, and if the Seminoles find themselves in closer games in 2014, this could matter. Small shifts in field position add up.

That really was just about the only weakness, though, for the team as a whole and for a special teams unit that included an explosive kick returner in BCS title game hero Kermit Whitfield and a nearly perfect place-kicker in Roberto Aguayo.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	vs. Oklahoma State	18
6-Sep	The Citadel	NR
20-Sep	Clemson	5
27-Sep	at N.C. State	66
4-Oct	Wake Forest	83
11-Oct	at Syracuse	67
18-Oct	Notre Dame	25
30-Oct	at Louisville	16
8-Nov	Virginia	62
15-Nov	at Miami	30
22-Nov	Boston College	69
29-Nov	Florida	29

Five-Year F/+ Rk	26.2% (6)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	5
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	17 / 6.0
TO Luck/Game	+3.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (8, 5)

9. Beware the landmines

Last season was almost too perfect. There were no random egg-layings on the road, and there were no serious injuries. Granted, part of that was simply because FSU was too good to be affected by such things, but again, this is college football.

Randomness happens. And if FSU is at less than perfect form, then the Seminoles could get upset by any number of teams away from Tallahassee: Oklahoma State, Louisville, Miami, et cetera.

But when randomness, complacency, and shaky punting are your biggest concerns, you're probably in great shape. FSU boasts draft prospects galore and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. The Seminoles have both former blue-chippers and proven starters at nearly every position, and there's absolutely no reason why they shouldn't start the season at No. 1.

Jimbo Fisher has brought this program back, and even if you didn't see it coming (and you should have), there's no choice but to acknowledge it now.

10. ACC balance of power

At the end of each conference run-through, I take a look at how I perceive the conference's balance of power heading into the season. This is in no way based on schedules, so they are not predictions. They're just how I would rank the teams after writing 4,000 or so words about each of them.

For the most part, I try to lay out four tiers, but I couldn't avoid five this time. There's too much separation at the top (and, sadly, bottom).

Tier 1
1. Florida State

Of course.

Tier 2
2. Clemson

If ACC divisions were redrawn with general "balance of power" implications included -- not something I recommend, by the way, but something the ACC definitely attempted with its over-thought Atlantic and Coastal -- there's no way in hell Clemson and FSU would end up in the same division.

Tier 3
3. Louisville
4. Virginia Tech
5. North Carolina
6. Miami
7. Duke
8. Pittsburgh
9. Georgia Tech

Any of six teams could win the Coastal this year, and none of them would surprise me. My bet is on Virginia Tech, but I'm not putting a ton of money on that.

Tier 4
10. Boston College
11. Syracuse
12. N.C. State
13. Virginia

Tier 4 could really be more like Tier 3a.

Tier 5
14. Wake Forest

Sorry, Deacs.

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