The big 2014 Kansas football guide: What now for the Jayhawks?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. What now?

A year ago, Charlie Weis signed enough JUCO players to make Ron Prince blush. The Kansas head coach decided after a dreadful first year in charge (KU went 1-11 in 2012) that he didn't want to wait for young players to develop -- he wanted to raise the talent and experience levels quickly.

Charlie Weis had to know what he was getting into. The Seductive Mr. Weis probably thinks more highly of his coaching abilities than is warranted, but he's no dummy. By the end of spring practice last year, he had to know that 2012 was going to be a very, very long season for him at Kansas.

Weis inherited a roster nearly devoid of high-end talent. ... He brought in some immediate transfers to help (quarterback Dayne Crist, tight end Mike Ragone, and linebacker Anthony McDonald from Notre Dame, and defensive end Josh Williams from Nebraska), but none of them suddenly rediscovered the potential they were supposed to have as recruits, and they weren't going to be around long anyway.

So Weis started mining the junior college ranks. I mean, he mined them. He brought in two junior college receivers, three offensive linemen, four defensive linemen, two linebackers, and four defensive backs. He signed 15 (15!!) JUCOs and just nine high schoolers. And three of the 15 (15!!) JUCOs were given at least a three-star designation by Rivals.com. [...]

Weis brings in an immediate talent upgrade at numerous positions and boosts his team's overall experience level (sort of), and the Jayhawks should be quite a bit better this fall.

So how'd that work out?

Oh.

The Jayhawks' defense indeed improved in 2013. The line held Clint Bowen's unit back pretty considerably, but the linebackers and secondary were aggressive and occasionally effective, and Kansas improved from 84th to 66th in Def. F/+. So that's something.

But the offense -- the unit on which Weis' ability to find new jobs is supposed to be derived -- cratered. A lack of identity hurt early, and a lack of passing ability hurt late. A bad offense (103rd in Off. F/+ in 2012) got much worse (119th) and canceled out any possible gains made on the other side of the ball.

Granted, Kansas' win total improved for the first time in six years (!), but only to 3-9. And none of the three teams the Jayhawks beat finished better than 4-8.

Weis mitigated some of the risk of signing so many JUCOs by redshirting quite a few, so he's not facing a situation in which his (as yet unsuccessful) roster has 35 seniors or something. But he has a bigger problem on his hands: a "Now what?" problem. After winning 12 games in 2007 and 13 in 2008-09, the Jayhawks have won just nine in the last four seasons. Since 2008, they are 3-40 in Big 12 play. They haven't beaten an FBS team that finished with a winning record since September 2011. They haven't beaten a major-conference team that finished with a winning record since October 2009. They haven't finished better than 101st in the F/+ rankings since 2009.

Kansas has had plenty of stretches of poor football through its history -- 9-25 from 2000-02, 12-41-2 from 1986-90, 11-30-3 from 1977-80, 9-20-1 from 1965-67, 8-30-2 from 1953-56, 12-33 from 1938-42 -- but this might soon become the worst. The downward slide that began under Mark Mangino and picked up rapid pace under Turner Gill hasn't necessarily continued under Weis, but it hasn't improved either.

And as of this week, it's now documented in a federal court case. From O'Bannon v. NCAA:

Uh, poor KU football. Gets brought up because Rice beat the Jayhawks this year. Attorney: "Kansas is perennial basement dweller in Big 12."

— Brady McCollough (@BradyMcCollough) June 23, 2014

There's hope that Kansas might break back into the top 100 this year. And the Jayhawks might be just one home upset win away from reaching four wins for the first time in five years. But it will take an upset. And it will take some semblance of passing ability. And these things are anything but guaranteed. So now what?

Weis is trying. He hired a new offensive coordinator. He made some slight shifts on defense. He brought in a few more JUCOs. But Kansas gets no benefit of the doubt at this point.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 1-11 | Final F/+ Rk: 101
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
7-Sep	South Dakota	N/A	31-14	W	21.9 - 29.9	L
14-Sep	at Rice	69	14-23	L	17.0 - 23.1	L
21-Sep	Louisiana Tech	112	13-10	W	21.3 - 31.8	L
5-Oct	Texas Tech	43	16-54	L	14.0 - 25.6	L
12-Oct	at TCU	44	17-27	L	9.5 - 35.6	L	-12.5
19-Oct	Oklahoma	20	19-34	L	19.5 - 28.9	L	-12.8
26-Oct	Baylor	7	14-59	L	20.2 - 34.4	L	-14.4
2-Nov	at Texas	35	13-35	L	22.8 - 29.9	L	-13.7
9-Nov	at Oklahoma State	8	6-42	L	19.9 - 21.5	L	-11.7
16-Nov	West Virginia	76	31-19	W	27.0 - 25.3	W	-6.1
23-Nov	at Iowa State	78	0-34	L	11.1 - 50.7	L	-12.2
30-Nov	Kansas State	24	10-31	L	15.0 - 23.4	L	-11.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-18.5%	119	-0.5%	66	0.0%	67
Points Per Game	15.3	120	31.8	93
Adj. Points Per Game	18.3	121	30.0	87

2. A positive trend (if you squint)

The national average for FBS yards per play in 2013 was 5.8. For the season, KU allowed exactly 5.8 and allowed fewer than that in four of its last five games. The glitches were pretty significant -- 9.1 per play to a Baylor team that was beginning to hobble a bit and, most egregiously, 8.0 to an Iowa State offense that was crippled by injuries and had little to offer to anybody else on the Big 12 slate -- but in the absence of clear, definable improvement, you have to squint a little. And if we remove ISU as an outlier (and what a disappointing one it was, coming a week after the best performance of the year), we can craft averages that look like this:

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Opponent 29.9, Kansas 17.6 (minus-12.3)
  
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games sans ISU): Opponent 25.0, Kansas 21.2 (minus-3.8)

The offense went from hopeless to just bad, and the defense went from below average to above average. That's not exactly a good line for the season ticket sales posters, but it's something. If you take out the Iowa State game.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.03	112	IsoPPP+	89.5	112
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	33.6%	122	Succ. Rt. +	84.1	114
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	32.0	105	Def. FP+	98.4	76
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.3	119	Redzone S&P+	89.5	98
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.9		ACTUAL	23	-1.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	119	115	115	121
RUSHING	78	93	94	93
PASSING	119	122	120	120
Standard Downs		112	105	117
Passing Downs		119	120	85

Q1 Rk	117	1st Down Rk	116
Q2 Rk	91	2nd Down Rk	104
Q3 Rk	119	3rd Down Rk	123
Q4 Rk	121

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jake Heaps				128	261	1414	8	10	49.0%	23	8.1%	4.3
Montell Cozart	6'2, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	23	63	227	0	2	36.5%	2	3.1%	3.3
Michael Cummings	5'10, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	3	4	44	1	0	75.0%	1	20.0%	8.4
T.J. Millweard	6'3, 210	So.	3 stars (5.6)

3. Cozart + Reagan = identity

Rice had one of my favorite offenses over the last couple of years. Head coach David Bailiff and coordinator John Reagan crafted an interesting run-first spread with lots of reads and big-play opportunities for their runners. Weis got an up-close look at Reagan's offense with a home-and-home against Rice these past two seasons -- Kansas held the run in check for the most part but still managed to lose both games -- and apparently he liked what he saw. When it came time to hire a new offensive coordinator in December, he called Reagan.

In theory, Reagan could make use of the personnel he inherits. The running back unit is in transition but still appears deep, there's at least one potential deep threat on play-action (senior Rodriguez Coleman, who had a lovely spring), and most importantly, Reagan has a quarterback suited for his style of ball.

Montell Cozart needs a lot of work. Let's not pretend otherwise. His rushing numbers weren't actually very good for a run-first quarterback last year, and he was one of the worst passers at the FBS level. But he was in a nearly impossible situation -- true freshman who finds his redshirt torn off midway through the year -- and he did bring decent efficiency to the table despite mistakes. He is a template with which Reagan can work. The problem is, he's still a true sophomore with almost no record of success, and it might take a year before he truly gets comfortable at the position. But hey, we're looking for optimism here.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
James Sims	RB				230	1110	7	4.8	4.4	39.6%
Taylor Cox (2012)	RB	5'11, 212	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	91	464	3	5.1	3.7	N/A
Darrian Miller	RB				67	322	0	4.8	7.0	31.3%
Montell Cozart	QB	6'2, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	64	225	1	3.5	3.1	39.1%
Brandon Bourbon	RB	6'1, 225	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	41	191	3	4.7	3.6	41.5%
Tony Pierson	RB/WR	5'10, 175	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	24	163	0	6.8	11.1	37.5%
Jake Heaps	QB				17	29	1	1.7	1.6	35.3%
Michael Cummings	QB	5'10, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	0	0	0.0	5.0	10.0%
Taylor Cox	RB				6	44	0	7.3	6.2	50.0%
Christian Matthews	WR				4	6	0	1.5		0.0%
De'Andre Mann	RB	5'9, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Traevohn Wrench	RB	6'0, 190	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Corey Avery	RB/WR	5'10, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

4. Plenty of backs

Despite the loss of running backs James Sims and Darrian Miller, Reagan still has backs with which to work. He'll still have senior efficiency backs Brandon Bourbon and Taylor Cox, he'll still have JUCO transfer De'Andre Mann and four-star freshman Traevohn Wrench, and he'll have one of the best, most diverse (when healthy) play-makers in the Big 12, Tony Pierson.

Unless Rodriguez Coleman really does emerge as a strong play-maker in the receiving corps, it's pretty much Pierson or bust. He averaged 6.5 yards per carry and 8.1 yards per target on the awful 2012 offense, and he averaged 6.8 and 6.9, respectively, before head injuries derailed his 2013 campaign. He is exactly the type of runner for whom Reagan will try to find space. He just has to stay healthy enough to take advantage of it.

If Pierson indeed stays healthy -- and head injuries are quite the if -- then one has to like the potential of the KU run game. That would mean Pierson flexing all over the field (he was KU's leading receiver last year despite missing 5+ games, which probably says more about KU's passing than his receiving), Cozart running the option, Bourbon and Cox churning up the middle, and potentially Mann or Wrench finding space outside. But it's almost all potential and ifs at this point.

That goes for the offensive line, as well. Granted, the Jayhawks' No. 86 rankings in Adj. Line Yards was better than most of their offensive rankings, but they let defenders into the backfield at will and now must replace four of the nine players who finished 2013 with starting experience. Thanks to JUCO transfers, KU will possibly start an all-juniors-and-seniors line, and the size is decent, but like the rest of the run game, we're looking more at potential than proven commodities.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Tony Pierson	RB/WR	5'10, 175	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	48	24	333	50.0%	15.5%	55.8%	6.9	0	6.9	33.2
Jimmay Mundine	TE	6'2, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	44	20	229	45.5%	14.2%	41.9%	5.2	-64	5.5	22.8
Brandon Bourbon	RB	6'1, 225	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	31	20	102	64.5%	10.0%	46.2%	3.3	-140	4.0	10.2
James Sims	RB				31	25	166	80.6%	10.0%	44.0%	5.4	-106	6.3	16.5
Justin McCay	WR-X	6'2, 210	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	25	9	84	36.0%	8.1%	57.1%	3.4	-68	3.9	8.4
Rodriguez Coleman	WR-Z	6'3, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	25	8	208	32.0%	8.1%	40.0%	8.3	62	7.5	20.7
Josh Ford	WR-X				24	9	126	37.5%	7.8%	31.3%	5.3	-22	4.7	12.5
Tre' Parmalee	WR-Z	5'10, 175	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	22	9	74	40.9%	7.1%	60.0%	3.4	-67	3.6	7.4
Christian Matthews	WR-Z				21	11	107	52.4%	6.8%	64.7%	5.1	-42	4.3	10.7
Andrew Turzilli	WR-X				15	7	167	46.7%	4.9%	50.0%	11.1	66	11.9	16.6
Connor Embree	FB				11	5	44	45.5%	3.6%	33.3%	4.0	-29	3.6	4.4
Darrian Miller	RB				5	2	14	40.0%	1.6%	50.0%	2.8	-18	3.2	1.4
Trent Smiley	TE	6'4, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	2	2	21	100.0%	0.6%	100.0%	10.5	1	5.8	2.1
Jordan Shelley-Smith	TE	6'5, 245	So.	3 stars (5.5)	1	1	3	100.0%	0.3%	N/A	3.0	-7	0.0	0.3
Nick Harwell (2012 Miami-OH)	WR	6'1, 193	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	110	68	870	61.8%	23.4%	71.8%	7.9	N/A	8.4	112.3
Dylan Admire	TE/FB	6'3, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Ben Johnson	TE	6'5, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Derrick Neal	WR	5'10, 155	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

5. 40.2 percent

In 2013, Kansas' six X- and Z-receivers combined to catch 53 of 132 passes. That's an almost impossibly bad catch rate of 40.2 percent.

Of the six, only Coleman, Josh Ford, and Andrew Turzilli turned any of their catches into actual yards, and Ford and Turzilli are gone. Returnees Justin McCay (once a highly touted Oklahoma signee) and Tre' Parmalee combined to average 3.4 yards per target, which is about as awful as you'll ever see. And while tight ends are usually used as decent efficiency options, Jimmay Mundine was able to only contribute a 46 percent catch rate.

Kansas ranked an abysmal 119th in Passing S&P+ in 2012 and actually figured out a way to regress (to 122nd, better than only Georgia State, FIU, Louisiana Tech, and Miami (Ohio)) in 2013. It doesn't matter how interesting your run game might be; you at least have to pretend to pass occasionally. And especially with Cozart behind center, there's not much reason to think Kansas will suddenly be able to do that. Miami (Ohio) transfer Nick Harwell might help, especially from an efficiency standpoint, but he and Coleman are not enough, even if Coleman indeed has a nice year.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.3	2.63	3.29	37.2%	50.0%	23.6%	68.8	4.7%	11.1%
Rank	86	107	60	86	121	120	111	66	110

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Aslam Sterling	RT				20
Gavin Howard	C				14
Ngalu Fusimalohi	LG	6'2, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12
Randall Dent	RT				10
Pat Lewandowski	RT	6'5, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	8
Mike Smithburg	RG	6'3, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	8
Riley Spencer	LT				5
Damon Martin	LT	6'3, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	5
Zach Fondal	LT	6'5, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	3
Bryan Peters	RG	6'3, 295	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Brian Beckmann	RT	6'6, 300	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Joey Bloomfield	LG	6'6, 295	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Joe Gibson	C	6'3, 295	RSFr.	NR
Keyon Haughton	C	6'2, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Devon Williams	OL	6'4, 340	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Jacob Bragg	OL	6'4, 305	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.15	64	IsoPPP+	100.0	58
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.7%	67	Succ. Rt. +	94.3	77
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.5	60	Off. FP+	98.5	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	77	Redzone S&P+	90.1	88
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.8		ACTUAL	24.0	+0.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	97	82	77	71
RUSHING	90	90	67	82
PASSING	79	77	93	59
Standard Downs		90	81	62
Passing Downs		68	75	64

Q1 Rk	102	1st Down Rk	84
Q2 Rk	48	2nd Down Rk	64
Q3 Rk	87	3rd Down Rk	69
Q4 Rk	46

6. The defense deserved better

Make no mistake: Kansas' defense wasn't great in 2013. The unit crafted by Clint Bowen and Dave Campo had no standout strengths among the numbers above, and the line was an outright liability. Still, with a decent offense, the defense would have been good enough to keep the Jayhawks in more games. The Jayhawks allowed 31 or fewer points in six games -- again, not amazing, but not terrible -- but never scored more than 31.

It appears the strengths will get stronger (or at least more experienced) in 2014, but the weakness might get weaker. A bad line gets completely rebuilt, while most of the play-making pieces in the back eight are back. Identity won't be an issue here, not with Ben Heeney and BUCK linebackers (DE/OLB hybrids) Victor Simmons and Michael Reynolds spending lots of time in the backfield and corners JaCorey Shepherd and Dexter McDonald getting hands on passes. But until the Jayhawks can better stop the run, the ceiling is relatively low.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	89.4	3.19	3.57	40.4%	67.7%	18.3%	91.5	4.5%	5.5%
Rank	110	96	93	79	69	77	76	60	93

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ben Goodman	DE	6'3, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	28.5	4.1%	7.5	3.0	1	2	0	0
Keba Agostinho	DE				12	27.0	3.9%	5.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Keon Stowers	NT	6'3, 297	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	22.0	3.1%	1.5	0.0	1	0	2	0
Jordan Tavai	DE				12	22.0	3.1%	5.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Young	DE				12	21.5	3.1%	4.5	2.5	0	1	1	0
Ty McKinney	NT				12	14.0	2.0%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Tedarian Johnson	DT	6'2, 290	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	8.0	1.1%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Bolton	DE	6'3, 285	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
T.J. Semke	DE	6'2, 265	Jr.	NR
Tyler Holmes	DE	6'3, 280	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Anthony Olobia	DE	6'5, 241	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Damani Mosby	DE	6'3, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Kapil Fletcher	DE	6'3, 261	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
D.J. Williams	NT	6'5, 288	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. A transfusion, like it or not

The BUCK position was relatively effective for Kansas last year, and it resulted in decent to mediocre sack rates. KU was able to generate a pass rush on standard downs, which is a nice thing to have in your back pocket in the spread-happy Big 12.

But that was just about the only redeeming aspect of the defensive front. Despite Heeney's nine non-sack tackles for loss, KU was only marginally efficient against the run and got pushed around like crazy. The result: a No. 110 ranking in Adj. Line Yards and No. 90 in Rushing S&P+.

And now four of last year's top five tacklers are gone up front. Ben Goodman moves to defensive end, and another load of JUCO transfers joins the mix; while you can certainly take an "it won't get much worse" approach in talking about the defensive line, there's not a lot of reason to think it will get better either.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ben Heeney	MLB	6'0, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	71.0	10.1%	11.5	2.0	3	2	0	0
Victor Simmons	BUCK	6'1, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	50.5	7.2%	7.5	2.5	0	1	3	0
Jake Love	WLB	6'0, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	47.0	6.7%	3.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
Courtney Arnick	MLB	6'2, 205	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	38.5	5.5%	3.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Michael Reynolds	BUCK	6'1, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	28.5	4.1%	10.0	6.5	0	4	2	0
Darius Willis	WLB				12	18.0	2.6%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Schyler Miles	WLB	6'2, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	10	12.0	1.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Prinz Kande	LB				10	8.0	1.1%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Samson Faifili	LB				2	6.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Jenkins-Moore	BUCK	6'3, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Kellen Ash	BUCK	6'3, 240	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Kyron Watson	LB	6'0, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Isaiah Johnson	SS	6'1, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	58.5	8.4%	3	0.5	5	0	0	0
Cassius Sendish	FS	6'0, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	57.0	8.1%	1.5	1	0	1	0	0
Dexter Linton	FS				12	52.5	7.5%	2	0	0	9	0	0
JaCorey Shepherd	CB	5'11, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	36.5	5.2%	2	1	2	13	1	0
Dexter McDonald	CB	6'1, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	24.5	3.5%	0	0	2	10	0	0
Brandon Hollomon	CB				9	7.5	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tevin Shaw	FS	5'11, 192	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Greg Allen	NB	5'11, 210	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alex Matlock	S	6'1, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Short	NB	6'2, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)
Michael Mesh	CB	5'10, 185	Jr.	NR
Ronnie Davis	CB	6'0, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Anthony Smithson	SS	5'11, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)

8. Lots of play-makers

If the line can occupy blockers at all, the rest of the defense could thrive. Heeney and Simmons are strong, and while Michael Reynolds is relatively one-dimensional, that one dimension (attacking in pass situations) is a good one. KU returns three linebackers who had at least 7.5 tackles for loss, two safeties who combined for 4.5 TFLs and six passes defensed, and two corners who combined for 27 passes defensed. There is play-making ability here.

Granted, outside of these five players, the pickings get slim. Sophomore nickel back Greg Allen had a nice spring, and some young three-star recruits could end up decent, but while one could make the case that KU's starting 11 is pretty strong, injuries could decimate the defense in record time. But again, we'll stick with optimism for now.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Trevor Pardula	6'5, 212	Sr.	84	43.7	7	12	25	44.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Trevor Pardula	6'5, 212	Sr.	43	60.3	22	0	51.2%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Matthew Wyman	6'1, 200	So.	13-16	3-6	50.0%	2-4	50.0%
Ron Doherty			6-6	5-6	83.3%	1-1	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
JaCorey Shepherd	KR	5'11, 195	Sr.	24	22.8	0
Darrian Miller	KR			11	24.3	0
Connor Embree	PR			16	11.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	67
Field Goal Efficiency	88
Punt Return Efficiency	39
Kick Return Efficiency	51
Punt Efficiency	30
Kickoff Efficiency	111
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	79

9. Shore up that kick coverage

Kansas was basically one coverage team away from having a pretty good special teams unit. Despite half of Trevor Pardula's kicks going for touchbacks, KU ranked 88th in opponents' average kick returns and 111th in overall kickoff efficiency. Pardula's a good punter, and JaCorey Shepherd is a decent return man, but kick coverage and shaky place-kicking could again hold this unit back. And the offense and defense could use some help from this unit.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
6-Sep	SE Missouri State	NR
13-Sep	at Duke	56
20-Sep	Central Michigan	109
27-Sep	Texas	38
4-Oct	at West Virginia	71
11-Oct	Oklahoma State	18
18-Oct	at Texas Tech	46
1-Nov	at Baylor	14
8-Nov	Iowa State	80
15-Nov	TCU	31
22-Nov	at Oklahoma	17
29-Nov	at Kansas State	41

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-16.1% (105)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	49
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	1 / -1.2
TO Luck/Game	+0.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (7, 9)

10. I thought KU would improve last year

Heading into last season, I thought KU's JUCO influx would result in short-term gains at the expense of long-term stability. Instead, the Jayhawks got the instability without any of the improvement.

The odds of improvement in 2014 are again decent -- the best players on the defense return, and the offense almost literally can't get worse -- but only marginally so. This is an obvious problem since, at 101st in the F/+ rankings, KU was still drastically behind the rest of the conference. Only two Big 12 teams ranked worse than 44th; one of those two (Iowa State) was wrecked by injuries, and the other (WVU) plays host to Kansas this year.

I like the potential offensive identity that John Reagan brings to the table, and I really hope Tony Pierson stays healthy because he's one of the most fun players in the conference to watch. Plus, the KU defense should continue to make a decent number of disruptive plays.

But barring the emergence of a few out-of-nowhere gems from the 2013 redshirt class and 2014 recruiting class, there's just no reason to think Kansas will be much better than it was in 2013, and there's no clear path back to respectability under Charlie Weis.