The big 2014 Iowa State football guide: From slow build to rebuild

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. The downside of low upside

For all intents and purposes, Iowa State recruits like a Conference USA team, or at least what used to be Conference USA and is basically now the American Athletic Conference. There aren't many big-time recruits in the Cyclones' backyard, and Paul Rhoads is more of a talent sculptor than a talent finder.

But Rhoads just keeps figuring out ways to make Iowa State a little better each year.

-- 2013 Iowa State football's 10 things to know

Safe to say, the novelty has worn off a bit in Ames. The scalp-collecting has slowed, the recruiting hasn't picked up to any major degree, and four straight losing seasons have to be wearing a bit on Iowa State fans.

You know the story pretty well by now. Paul Rhoads' Cyclones took down a 10-win Nebraska team in Lincoln in 2009, won at Texas in 2010 (and very nearly beat Nebraska again), and handed a 12-win Oklahoma State team its only loss in 2011. Ames quickly became the place you didn't want to visit as a favorite.

But after three bowls in four years, the tide has turned in the wrong way. Iowa State has lost 13 of its last 17 games. The quarterback position has still never been resolved. And in 2013, we saw what happened if some bad injury luck goes against the Cyclones. When you recruit like a mid-level AAC team, and you lose a chunk of your first string, you begin to play like a low-level AAC team. Without a deeper level of athleticism upon which to call, ISU cratered, going 3-9 and losing to Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma by an average score of 55-13.

That's the bad news. The good news, as it were, is that ISU at least isn't that far away from its 2009-12 level. The offense, though limited, returns nearly everybody and welcomes a new offensive coordinator and a rare pair of young four-star receivers. The defense ... well, it's still super thin, but it might be healthy this time. There's a bit more upside and decent experience on the more troubled side of the ball, and at the very least, ISU isn't too many breaks (if any) away from getting back to the .500 level.

But how long is that enough? The scalps on the wall are getting a little bit dusty, and the 6-7 seasons lose their charm after a while, even if they're closer to the norm than last year's 3-9 campaign.

Paul Rhoads is playing, and will continue to play, the long game in Ames. Quite a few of his better players are young, and he's not exactly on a win-or-else hot seat this year. But with Big 12 contenders Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma all visiting Ames, it's not be a bad idea to score another big upset and remind locals why he became so popular in the first place.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 78
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Northern Iowa	N/A	20-28	L	23.3 - 42.6	L
14-Sep	Iowa	29	21-27	L	30.8 - 26.1	W
26-Sep	at Tulsa	94	38-21	W	26.5 - 33.3	L
3-Oct	Texas	35	30-31	L	32.5 - 25.8	W
12-Oct	at Texas Tech	43	35-42	L	18.6 - 35.4	L	-6.3
19-Oct	at Baylor	7	7-71	L	15.4 - 31.5	L	-5.7
26-Oct	Oklahoma State	8	27-58	L	25.7 - 28.5	L	-7.2
2-Nov	at Kansas State	24	7-41	L	17.7 - 30.1	L	-8.3
9-Nov	TCU	44	17-21	L	17.3 - 25.6	L	-11.3
16-Nov	at Oklahoma	20	10-48	L	22.7 - 39.3	L	-11.3
23-Nov	Kansas	101	34-0	W	42.5 - 23.9	W	-4.3
30-Nov	at West Virginia	76	52-44	W	32.1 - 40.6	L	-5.4

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-5.1%	81	-4.0%	81	+1.7%	34
Points Per Game	24.8	90	36.0	109
Adj. Points Per Game	25.4	92	31.9	100

2. Two games is not a trend...

...but if you're looking for hope in Ames, you have to start with the last two games. After a year of injuries and feckless offensive performance -- ISU averaged better than 5.1 yards per play just once in its first nine games against FBS opponents and scored 68 points in five games between October 19 and November 16 -- the Cyclones put up 1,077 yards (6.9 per play) and scored 86 points in the final two. Yes, those two games were against Kansas and West Virginia, but you've got to start somewhere. And even accounting for opponent, the final two performances were impressive.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Opponent 32.0, ISU 28.3 (minus-3.7)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 6 games): Opponent 31.7, ISU 19.6 (minus-12.1)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 2 games): ISU 37.3, Opponent 32.3 (plus-5.0)

Between injuries and a generally unsettled lineup, there were almost no sure things in the Iowa State offensive lineup. One player (receiver Quenton Bundrage) started all 12 games. The leading rusher missed two. The original starting quarterback missed one game and was demoted for others. This is a good way of collecting experience for future seasons -- and it might lend more weight to the last two games -- but it's not good for winning games in the present tense.

It's also not good for learning things. Despite the late output, we enter 2014 asking basically the same questions of the ISU offense that we did in 2013.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.05	109	IsoPPP+	93.3	95
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.8%	97	Succ. Rt. +	99.9	64
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.6	86	Def. FP+	102.4	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	60	Redzone S&P+	122.2	11
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.4		ACTUAL	22	-0.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	97	73	65	76
RUSHING	89	66	44	74
PASSING	78	75	78	66
Standard Downs		68	65	87
Passing Downs		77	56	111

Q1 Rk	86	1st Down Rk	52
Q2 Rk	56	2nd Down Rk	82
Q3 Rk	96	3rd Down Rk	93
Q4 Rk	41

3. Being good in the red zone matters more when you get to the red zone more

Yes, that's the third topic of last year's preview.

The Kansas State/Iowa State model requires you to take full advantage of the opportunities given to you. Iowa State did that with a nearly automatic red zone offense. [...] The problem, of course, was that they didn't create nearly enough of these opportunities.

I wrote that after ISU ranked 78th in overall Off. S&P+ and 19th in Redzone S&P+ in 2012. Last year, ISU ranked 73rd and 11th, respectively. Same story, different year.

A lack of explosiveness doesn't matter when you're not far from the end zone, and a combination of solid blocking and efficient running got ISU into the end zone quite a bit. But again, that only matters if you're generating opportunities. ISU created scoring opportunities (trips inside the opponent's 40) on only 37.3 percent of its possessions, 114th in the country. If you're getting so few chances, you pretty much have to score touchdowns on every single one of them.

Consider this a case of doing the Little Things well but not doing enough of the Big Things.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Sam B. Richardson

6'2, 223

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

121

220

1397

11

7

55.0%

21

8.7%

5.3

Grant Rohach

6'1, 224

So.

3 stars (5.6)

110

191

1208

8

7

57.6%

15

7.3%

5.4

Joel Lanning

6'2, 236

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

Trevor Hodge

6'0, 198

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

4. Find a QB who will stick

Yep, said it last year.

In 2009, Austen Arnaud threw 303 passes for Iowa State, and Jerome Tiller threw 73. In 2010, Arnaud threw 290, and Tiller threw 82. In 2011, Steele Jantz threw 259, and Jared Barnett threw 220. In 2012, Jantz threw 269, Barnett threw 108, and Sam B. Richardson threw 79.

Teams are sometimes forced to deal with issues at quarterback; injuries happen, and sometimes you just pick the wrong guy at first. That's life. But for Iowa State, shuffling at quarterback is a way of life. There hasn't been stability at the position since Bret Meyer left, and considering how much of the modern college offense (any offense) is dependent on quarterback play, that's an issue.

Thanks to both countless injuries to Sam B. Richardson (ankle, groin, thumb, head/neck) and the relatively equal play of backup Grant Rohach, ISU again split time between two quarterbacks in 2013 and again enters a season unsettled at the position.

Granted, Rhoads knows how to handle a quarterback battle -- he's gotten more than used to it -- but at some point it would certainly help if one stood out from the others. Maybe that's Richardson, re-discovering the late-2012 form that won him the job int he first place (which basically constituted not throwing interceptions). Maybe that's Rohach, taking a sophomore step forward. Or, since this is Iowa State, maybe that's This Year's Emerging Redshirt Freshman (either Joel Lanning or Trevor Hodge). For what it's worth, Rohach held the starting job at the end of the spring. But that doesn't necessarily mean a lot in Ames.

Perhaps the biggest reason for hope when it comes to the quarterback position is the new guy calling plays. Former Kansas head coach (and, before that, former Oklahoma offensive coordinator) Mark Mangino takes over as Rhoads' offensive coordinator. Mangino has never been an extreme innovator, but he's a strong craftsman, and he has a knack for keeping things as simple as possible. ("It takes too much time out of your day to be real complicated.") He figures out what his players are best at doing, he determines what the defense is giving him -- be it the run, the dink-and-dunk, the seams, whatever -- and he goes to work. He is more likely than most to maximize the talent at hand.

So now the question simply becomes, "How good is the talent at hand?"

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Aaron Wimberly	RB	5'9, 174	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	141	567	2	4.0	3.5	34.0%
Shontrelle Johnson	RB				90	358	3	4.0	3.3	32.2%
Sam B. Richardson	QB	6'2, 223	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	80	481	2	6.0	4.8	51.3%
DeVondrick Nealy	RB	5'10, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	41	158	2	3.9	3.2	29.3%
Grant Rohach	QB	6'1, 224	So.	3 stars (5.6)	33	182	1	5.5	6.3	45.5%
James White	RB				32	118	1	3.7	1.9	31.3%
Jeff Woody	RB				30	74	5	2.5	4.2	10.0%
Rob Standard	RB	5'10, 213	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tyler Brown	RB	5'10, 179	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Mike Warren	RB	6'0, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Quenton Bundrage	WR-X	6'2, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	91	48	673	52.7%	24.1%	52.5%	7.4	27	7.0	83.3
E.J. Bibbs	TE	6'3, 261	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	60	39	462	65.0%	15.9%	51.9%	7.7	-8	7.7	57.2
Justin Coleman	WR-F				48	31	442	64.6%	12.7%	56.8%	9.2	67	9.2	54.7
Tad Ecby	WR-Z	6'0, 203	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	41	22	233	53.7%	10.8%	48.6%	5.7	-60	5.1	28.8
Aaron Wimberly	RB	5'9, 174	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	24	18	211	75.0%	6.3%	40.9%	8.8	9	9.8	26.1
Dondre Daley	WR-Z	6'1, 191	So.	3 stars (5.5)	20	13	120	65.0%	5.3%	65.0%	6.0	-37	6.3	14.9
Albert Gary	WR				19	8	80	42.1%	5.0%	62.5%	4.2	-43	3.8	9.9
Jarvis West	WR-F	5'7, 177	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	18	15	105	83.3%	4.8%	37.5%	5.8	-56	5.3	13.0
James White	RB				14	11	84	78.6%	3.7%	30.8%	6.0	-37	7.0	10.4
Ernst Brun, Jr.	TE				11	6	47	54.5%	2.9%	62.5%	4.3	-32	2.8	5.8
P.J. Harris	WR-Z	6'1, 163	So.	3 stars (5.6)	9	7	67	77.8%	2.4%	33.3%	7.4	-10	8.3	8.3
Ben Boesen	TE	6'6, 238	Jr.	NR	4	2	9	50.0%	1.1%	100.0%	2.3	-19	2.5	1.1
Brett Medders	WR-F	6'2, 203	Jr.	NR
D'Vario Montgomery	WR-X	6'5, 212	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Bryan Ajumobi	WR-X	6'1, 204	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Damein Lawry	WR-F	5'10, 177	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Allen Lazard	WR	6'5, 215	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)
Jauan Wesley	WR	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

5. No pressure, D'Vario and Allen

Iowa State's offensive line managed to rank 67th in Adj. Line yards despite constant shuffling. Two multi-year starters are gone, but plenty of players have amassed experience at this point -- eight have started a game (86 starts in all) -- and the addition of some exciting youngsters like four-star redshirt freshman Jake Campos can't hurt. One assumes this will be a decent line, at least in terms of run-blocking.

So how about the guys they're blocking for? Generally speaking, if a running back averages better than about 5.0 highlight yards per opportunity, that's a sign of solid explosiveness. An average of 4.5 is at least decent.

None of ISU's top three running backs averaged better than 3.5.

Rohach was a relatively exciting runner at times, but the backs didn't bring much to the table. Health and experience could be assets here, but the best-case scenario for Mangino and the running game is efficiency over big plays.

Of course, moving the ball without big plays is something ISU has gotten pretty used to at this point. Explosiveness has long been an issue for this team. Bundrage and Justin Coleman combined to average a healthy 14.1 yards per catch, but Coleman has graduated, and Bundrage's 53 percent catch rate tamped down his effectiveness. Still, Bundrage is a decent weapon, and tight end E.J. Bibbs isn't bad.

But it's difficult to talk about ISU receivers without focusing on a pair of newcomers. First, you've got sophomore USF transfer D'Vario Montgomery, a former four-star recruit and high school teammate of Sam B. Richardson. He has proven nothing, but recruiting rankings hint at upside if nothing else, and Montgomery evidently has it. And so does Allen Lazard, an Urbandale, Iowa, native and the No. 47 overall recruit in the country (according to Rivals).

If Montgomery and Lazard can begin turning potential into production in 2014, that not only gives the offense more upside as a whole; it also gives the Cyclones a pretty clear identity. Montgomery and Lazard are both big targets, as is Bibbs. (And Bundrage isn't exactly small.) If there is at least a little bit of play-making ability here (TBD), and ISU can turn short and medium passes into occasional big gains, as was the KU way under Mangino, then that could open up the entire field.

This duo is still young, though. The most likely result here is sporadic output from these two in 2014 and a truly decent offense in 2015.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.9	2.71	3.38	35.3%	65.1%	18.8%	85.0	4.2%	9.3%
Rank	67	94	48	102	80	59	86	55	100

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Tom Farniok	C	6'4, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	35
Ethan Tuftee	RG				25
Kyle Lichtenberg	RT				18
Jacob Gannon	RT	6'7, 301	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12
Brock Dagel	LT	6'8, 303	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11
Oni Omoile	LG	6'3, 297	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	9
Jamison Lalk	LG	6'6, 303	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	8
Daniel Burton	RG	6'5, 320	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8
Ben Loth	C	6'6, 327	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	2
Jacob Dunning	RT	6'5, 287	So.	2 stars (5.4)	1
Jake Campos	LT	6'7, 279	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jacob Homa	RG	6'4, 295	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Shawn Curtis	LT	6'5, 288	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Ryan Glenn	RG	6'4, 305	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Nick Severs	C	6'3, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Wendell Taiese	OL	6'5, 355	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)

x

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.17	73	IsoPPP+	97.4	76
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.9%	87	Succ. Rt. +	94.0	84
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.5	62	Off. FP+	98.5	77
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	86	Redzone S&P+	99.7	60
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	27.8		ACTUAL	21.0	-6.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	106	87	84	87
RUSHING	114	110	91	108
PASSING	76	44	69	49
Standard Downs		94	73	106
Passing Downs		69	89	22

Q1 Rk	67	1st Down Rk	90
Q2 Rk	100	2nd Down Rk	106
Q3 Rk	49	3rd Down Rk	19
Q4 Rk	111

6. The secondary deserved better

Never mind the fact that the offense did the defense next to no favors. The defensive front gave the defensive backs few of them as well.

The Iowa State secondary featured a pair of high-class safeties (Jacques Washington and Deon Broomfield combined for five tackles for loss, 15 passes defensed, and two forced fumbles) and a young duo of cornerbacks (Sam E. Richardson and Nigel Tribune) that usually held its own. Plus, Jeremiah George was a strong play-maker, against run and pass, at middle linebacker. ISU was excellent at preventing big plays and conversions on passing downs, but with one of the worst overall run defenses in the country, passing downs were few and far between.

That Richardson and Tribune return is good news, but they might not find the going any easier this fall. Both Washington and Broomfield are gone, as is George. Plus, six of the top nine tacklers up front are gone; granted, major line attrition would hurt more if the line had actually been good, but the ISU line is going to be under-sized and under-seasoned in 2014.

Every linebacker not named George returns, and there's JUCO help in each unit, but it's hard to be too optimistic about this defense as a whole. ISU has always been salty and opportunistic under Rhoads, but that's different than simply being good. Veteran coordinator Wally Burnham has his work cut out for him this year.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	93.9	3.03	3.55	40.5%	62.3%	15.8%	87.3	2.0%	6.2%
Rank	90	76	90	80	34	103	88	120	78

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cory Morrissey	DE	6'4, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	43.5	6.1%	6.5	2.0	0	0	1	0
Rodney Coe	DT				12	29.0	4.1%	5.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Willie Scott	DE				11	24.0	3.4%	4.5	2.0	0	4	2	0
David Irving	DT				10	15.0	2.1%	4.5	2.0	0	4	1	0
Brandon Jensen	NG	6'5, 301	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	12.5	1.8%	4.0	1.0	0	2	0	0
Mitchell Meyers	DE	6'4, 262	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	11.5	1.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nick Kron	DE				12	10.5	1.5%	1.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Devin Lemke	DE				7	5.5	0.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Austin Krick	NG				11	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Devlyn Cousin	NG	6'1, 295	So.	3 stars (5.5)	7	4.5	0.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Walter Woods III	NG				9	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Darius White	DE	6'0, 249	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Pierre Aka	DT	6'4, 285	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Robby Garcia	DT	6'3, 277	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
J.D. Waggoner	DE	6'2, 247	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Vernell Trent	NG	6'3, 287	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Dale Pierson	DE	6'2, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Gabe Luna	DE	6'1, 255	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)

7. A nearly total tackle rebuild

The good news, I guess, is that the end position won't be worse. Granted, ISU had one of the worst standard-downs pass rushes in the country, so there's almost nowhere to go but up, but in Cory Morrissey and Mitchell Meyers, plus a couple of JUCO transfers (Dale Pierson, Gabe Luna), the Cyclones aren't going to regress at what was a position of weakness.

But to the extent that ISU had a strength up front, it was at tackle, where Rodney Coe, David Irving, and Brandon Jensen combined for 13.5 tackles for loss and quite a bit of short-yardage push. Coe and Irving were both dismissed from the team this spring, leaving Meyers, sophomore Devlyn Cousin, and a whole lot of new (not to mention only one 300-pounder) up front. It's hard to be optimistic that this bad line will be better.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jeremiah George	MLB				12	108.0	15.2%	12.0	3.5	2	6	3	0
Jared Brackens	SLB	6'1, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	49.0	6.9%	4.5	2.0	0	2	0	0
Jevohn Miller	WLB	6'1, 243	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	37.5	5.3%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Luke Knott	WLB	6'0, 218	So.	3 stars (5.5)	6	35.5	5.0%	1.5	0.0	0	2	1	0
Levi Peters	WLB	5'10, 217	So.	NR	12	12.5	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Drake Ferch	SLB	5'11, 212	Sr.	NR	11	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kane Seeley	MLB	6'1, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alton Meeks	MLB	6'2, 249	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Brian Mills	WLB	5'10, 227	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Jordan Harris	MLB	5'11, 241	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jacques Washington	FS				12	99.0	13.9%	5	1	2	6	0	0
Sam E. Richardson	CB	5'7, 189	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	49.5	7.0%	1	0	0	7	1	0
Deon Broomfield	SS				12	47.5	6.7%	0	0	1	6	2	0
Nigel Tribune	CB	5'10, 183	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	27.0	3.8%	0	0	1	6	0	0
Jansen Watson	CB				10	24.5	3.4%	2.5	0	1	8	1	0
Charlie Rogers	NB				12	15.5	2.2%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Kenneth Lynn	CB	5'10, 166	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	7	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Wes Boyer	DB				12	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Cliff Stokes	FS				12	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Mutcherson	SS	5'11, 203	So.	2 stars (5.3)	8	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darian Cotton	SS	5'11, 201	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gage Shaeffer	DB				5	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Matthew Thomas	CB	5'10, 168	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)
Kamari Syrie	FS	5'9, 203	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kamari Cotton-Moya	FS	6'0, 190	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Devron Moore	DB	5'11, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Qujuan Floyd	DB	6'0, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Mike Johnson	DB	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

8. A nearly total safety rebuild

Linebacker Jared Brackens returns, sophomore Luke Knott is healthy, and again, Richardson and Tribune return at cornerback. These are good things. ISU tends to do just fine at the linebacker position in general, so one assumes a decent level there, but if the strength of the defense was big-play prevention in the passing game, and Washington, Broomfield, and nickelback Charlie Rogers are all gone ... well ... that's not good. ISU will probably need both JUCO signees (Devron Moore, Qujuan Floyd) to be ready to contribute from Day 1 (not typically a strong bet) to match last year's production in the back.

In all, there's reason to believe the offense will take a lovely step forward. But the defense is simply trying to tread water.

9. Damn you, Iowa State

Every year, Iowa State starts a Knott at linebacker (first Jake, than Luke). Last year, the Cyclones had a Sam Richardson at both quarterback and cornerback. And now they have two redshirt freshman free safeties named Kamari. It's one thing to confuse opponents; it's another to confuse the people writing about your team.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kirby Van Der Kamp			84	41.6	8	22	27	58.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Edwin Arceo			55	60.6	22	0	40.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cole Netten	6'1, 213	So.	33-34	10-11	90.9%	3-7	42.9%
Edwin Arceo			2-2	0-0		0-2	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Albert Gary	KR			17	15.1	0
DeVondrick Nealy	KR	5'10, 190	Jr.	16	23.5	1
Jarvis West	PR	5'7, 177	Sr.	11	13.4	0
Justin Coleman	PR			6	6.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	34
Field Goal Efficiency	89
Punt Return Efficiency	82
Kick Return Efficiency	8
Punt Efficiency	54
Kickoff Efficiency	13
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	111

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	North Dakota State	NR
6-Sep	Kansas State	41
13-Sep	at Iowa	34
27-Sep	Baylor	14
4-Oct	at Oklahoma State	18
11-Oct	Toledo	58
18-Oct	at Texas	38
1-Nov	Oklahoma	17
8-Nov	at Kansas	104
22-Nov	Texas Tech	46
29-Nov	West Virginia	71
6-Dec	at TCU	31

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-5.4% (73)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	56
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-1 / 5.3
TO Luck/Game	-2.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (8, 5)

10. Brace yourself

In its first five games, Iowa State plays a team riding a 24-game winning streak (North Dakota State), a major, improved in-state rival (Iowa), and the last three Big 12 champions (Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor).

For a team coming off of a 3-9 campaign and breaking in a new offense (potentially with a sophomore quarterback and key sophomore and freshman receivers), new defensive tackles, and new safeties, that's less than optimal. (Well, it's less than optimal for just about any team, I guess.)

There are wins on the schedule after that, but only if this team's health and confidence aren't completely frayed.

Honestly, I expect another down year for ISU here. I'm optimistic about the offense, but a) I'll be more optimistic about the offense in 2015, and b) I'm terrified for this defense in 2014. If some of the young, ace recruits take hold this year and Mark Mangino begins to figure things out on the offensive side of the ball, then perhaps there's more upside for this team than there has been in the past. But it will probably take a year to realize potential.