The big 2014 Baylor football guide: History is of no consequence

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Now, for an encore...

The Big 12 is a strange entity. For each set of conference previews, I determine the order of teams, bottom to top, based on five-year history. It's generally a decent way of determining overall program health, and it gives a more general view than simply using last year's rankings or coming up with a hierarchy for 2014 (when I haven't usually figured out the hierarchy until I'm done with all of the conference's previews). For most conferences, this makes sense. The last (top) four previews in the ACC series were Miami, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Florida State. The last four for the Big Ten were Nebraska, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Ohio State.

The last four for the Big 12? Texas, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. The four most "healthy" programs have combined for one Big 12 title in the last three years. Texas and TCU combined to go 12-13 last year. The conference's top dog, Oklahoma, hasn't won the conference since 2010.

Meanwhile, last year's conference champion, Baylor, is fourth from the bottom. In terms of five-year history, Baylor ranks 38th, just behind a West Virginia team (35th) that went 4-8 in 2013.

College football from year to year is not a quickly evolving ecosystem. Fortunes can change, but it tends to take a while; and if they change too quickly, regression-to-the-mean tends to strike thereafter. But apparently those rules don't apply in the Big 12.

Perhaps because of this environment, we're not making enough of what happened in 2013. Baylor won the Big 12. Baylor won the Big 12! As it happened, it seemed so logical that we probably didn't take enough of a step back at the time to realize what it might mean.

Basically, it means that anything is possible with great hires and commitment. It takes both, but Baylor has completely changed every possible perception of itself, and it's only taken six years. Head coach Art Briles has given Baylor a personality. Briles' spectacular offense has given Baylor a calling card. Robert Griffin III gave Baylor a Heisman. And Briles' success has given Baylor a new stadium.

Baylor was legitimately excellent in 2013; the Bears were as devastating as ever on offense, and defensive coordinator Phil Bennett's vision of an equally fast, aggressive Baylor defense actually came to fruition to a certain degree. Baylor went 11-2 and had semi-legitimate reasons to believe that injuries prevented them from something even better. And the recipe the Bears followed was one they could follow again.

Now, that's not to say everything is perfect in Waco. For reasons fair or unfair, some Baylor alumni (including one to whom I am related) were rubbed the wrong way by how Briles' name remained in the pool for the Texas job in the run-up to the Fiesta Bowl. (Granted, that feeling will go away the next time BU beats Texas, if it hasn't already.) Plus, while Briles is figuring out ways to bring high-end talent to Waco, a small handful of injuries last fall showed that depth is still, and will perhaps always remain, precarious. And while Bennett's defense improved dramatically — to 25th in Def. F/+ — in 2013, 25th might be the peak.

There's also the Texas issue. The Big 12 is a conference anybody can win as along as both Oklahoma and Texas aren't clicking on all cylinders. If the Sooners and Longhorns both have their affairs in order, it's hard for others to compete. (See: most of 2000-10, in which these two teams won all 11 South division titles and nine Big 12 titles.) What happens in the coming years if Charlie Strong makes UT a top-10 program again?

Baylor isn't the New Texas, in other words. But that's nitpicking. Baylor just won the Big 12. Anything is possible in a world in which Baylor can win the Big 12.

Heading into 2014, there is but one question: now what? Briles just pulled off an amazing feat of strength; what can he do as a follow-up?

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 7
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Wofford	N/A	69-3	W	49.2 - 10.3	W
7-Sep	Buffalo	80	70-13	W	63.1 - 18.4	W
21-Sep	UL-Monroe	109	70-7	W	51.3 - 15.0	W
5-Oct	West Virginia	76	73-42	W	54.8 - 27.0	W
12-Oct	at Kansas State	24	35-25	W	39.1 - 24.6	W	32.4
19-Oct	Iowa State	78	71-7	W	41.2 - 14.1	W	30.1
26-Oct	at Kansas	101	59-14	W	48.4 - 24.6	W	25.9
7-Nov	Oklahoma	20	41-12	W	33.8 - 9.6	W	23.5
16-Nov	vs. Texas Tech	43	63-34	W	48.9 - 21.8	W	23.3
23-Nov	at Oklahoma State	8	17-49	L	34.5 - 40.3	L	19.3
30-Nov	at TCU	44	41-38	W	26.8 - 29.5	L	13.3
7-Dec	Texas	35	30-10	W	31.8 - 11.8	W	12.5
1-Jan	vs. Central Florida	21	42-52	L	38.5 - 33.0	W	8.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+20.5%	4	+10.7%	25	-0.9%	88
Points Per Game	52.4	1	23.5	36
Adj. Points Per Game	43.2	3	21.5	16

2. ...and then everything changed

In the first nine games of 2013, Baylor took Briles Ball to its logical extreme. The offense averaged at least 7.7 yards per play eight times and averaged 684 yards and 61.2 points per game. The Bears gained exactly 781 yards and scored exactly 70 points in back-to-back games (Buffalo, UL-Monroe), then improved to 872 yards and 73 points against West Virginia. Meanwhile, the defense was holding up its end of the bargain. Baylor allowed 3.7 or fewer yards per play in five of those nine contests and never allowed greater than 5.6 (national average: 5.8), and despite the offense's heavy pace (and the resulting heavy defensive workload), Baylor allowed greater than 400 yards or 30 points just twice.

A 41-12 romp over Oklahoma on Nov. 7 sent out the message: Baylor was ready to compete for the national title. But three injuries changed everything. Inside receiver Tevin Reese got hurt against Oklahoma, and left tackle Spencer Drango and linebacker Bryce Hager got hurt against Texas Tech. Combined with some general injury issues at running back, this dramatically altered Baylor's upside.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 9 games): Baylor 47.8, Opponent 18.4 (plus-29.4)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Baylor 32.9, Opponent 28.7 (plus-4.2)

Now, the way Oklahoma State played against Baylor in Stillwater on Nov. 23, it's quite possible that Baylor wouldn't have beaten the Cowboys with a full-strength squad. Hell, they might not have beaten Oklahoma State with RG3 and Mike Singletary. But a 25-point drop-off in adjusted scoring margins shows us that Baylor was a shadow of its former self without Reese, Drango and Hager. A rusty Reese returned for the bowl game, but this still wasn't the same team down the stretch. But they still managed to whip Texas and secure the Big 12 title in the final game at Floyd Casey Stadium.

That we didn't get to see Peak Baylor peaking at the end of the season was disappointing, but even with the drop-off, Baylor still ranked seventh in F/+ and won 11 games. Hard to be too disappointed.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.39	2	IsoPPP+	118.1	3
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	47.1%	21	Succ. Rt. +	119.4	9
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.5	57	Def. FP+	102.4	30
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	14	Redzone S&P+	127.6	5
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.1		ACTUAL	16	-9.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	1	6	9	1
RUSHING	12	20	12	10
PASSING	5	2	15	3
Standard Downs		3	4	14
Passing Downs		12	36	3

Q1 Rk	5	1st Down Rk	1
Q2 Rk	6	2nd Down Rk	8
Q3 Rk	3	3rd Down Rk	15
Q4 Rk	20

3. That pace

Adjusting for run-pass ratio (since runs are less likely to result in clock stoppages), here are the 10 fastest offenses in the country in 2013 according to Adjusted Pace:

1. BYU (14.3 plays greater than expected)
2. California (plus-12.8)
3. Texas Tech (plus-12.5)
4. Baylor (plus-11.7)
5. Virginia (plus-9.9)
6. Nevada (plus-9.9)
7. Fresno State (plus-9.4)
8. Arizona (plus-8.9)
9. Washington (plus-7.8)
10. Clemson (plus-7.5)

Here's the thing about this list: only one of these offenses ranked better than 19th in Off. F/+. Four ranked 48th or worse.

Pace is a loaded weapon. It can do serious damage to your opponent, but if you're not prepared for the recoil, you might just do damage to yourself.

There were plenty of good offenses on this list, but only one not only took pace to its logical extreme, but did so consistently. That, of course, would be Baylor's, which finished fourth in Off. F/+.

Granted, the late-season injuries turned Baylor's offense into only an above-average unit and showed us just how quickly the balancing act of pace and precision can topple. But Baylor had that balance for much of 2013, and with the return of quarterback Bryce Petty and an offseason to account for the losses of Reese, running back Lache Seastrunk, and All-American guard Cyril Richardson, the Bears could have it again.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Bryce Petty	6'3, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	250	403	4200	32	3	62.0%	17	4.0%	10.42
Seth Russell	6'3, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	26	43	427	3	3	60.5%	5	10.4%	9.93
Chris Johnson	6'4, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)

4. 32-to-3

As strange as it sounds, it's kind of hard to stand out as Baylor's quarterback at the moment. Griffin set the bar almost unattainably high in terms of stats and name recognition. But beyond that, the pure volume of exciting skill position talent means that a given Baylor quarterback has become more distributor than star. It's easy to post pretty good stats while handing to Lache Seastrunk and Shock Linwood and throwing to wide-open Tevin Reese, Antwan Goodley, etc.

Still ... Bryce Petty threw 32 touchdown passes to three interceptions in 403 throws. He was sacked just once for every 25 pass attempts, and he was a tremendous short-yardage bulldozer, rushing for 14 touchdowns in just 77 non-sack carries. That's pretty special. Granted, when injuries set in, Petty didn't exactly raise his game; in his final four games, he completed just 58 percent of his passes and threw two of his three picks. But he still managed a passer rating of at least 134.9 in three of those four games, and Baylor still averaged 32.5 points per game without his left tackle (Drango), without one of the nation's best receivers (Reese) and with one of the nation's best running backs (Seastrunk) at less than 100 percent. That's a pretty high floor.

Petty's supporting cast will be younger in 2014. Seastrunk and Reese are gone for good, as is four-year veteran Glasco Martin. The line must replace three of its eight players with starting experience (68 career starts), including Richardson. The two leading running backs are sophomores, as is wideout Corey Coleman, who will likely be a major contributor.

Still, it's hard to be too worried, isn't it? As an out-of-nowhere freshman contributor, Linwood did quite a Seastrunk impersonation for much of the season, nearly matching Seastrunk's efficiency and explosiveness. Plus, big back Devin Chafin showed some serious jets in limited opportunities as well. And even without Reese, Baylor boasts the return of five players who were a) targeted at least 37 times and b) averaged at least 8.4 yards per target.

Of the 67 FBS players who were targeted at least 100 times, Antwan Goodley was the only one with at least a 66 percent catch rate and at least 18 yards per catch. He's back, as is Levi Norwood, who averaged more than 15 yards per catch with nearly an 80-percent catch rate. Plus, KD Cannon and Davion Hall were among the best high school receivers in the country last year and probably won't need to wait long to become valuable contributors.

So yeah, don't cry too much for Petty. He'll be just fine in 2014.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Lache Seastrunk	RB				158	1170	11	7.4	7.2	50.6%
Shock Linwood	RB	5'8, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	128	881	8	6.9	6.2	47.7%
Glasco Martin	RB				120	509	7	4.2	2.9	32.5%
Bryce Petty	QB	6'3, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	94	209	14	2.2	3.4	37.7%
Devin Chafin	RB	6'0, 220	So.	3 stars (5.5)	51	295	4	5.8	8.8	29.4%
Anthony Webb	RB	6'0, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	27	150	0	5.6	7.2	37.0%
Seth Russell	QB	6'3, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	24	147	3	6.1	6.0	78.9%
Antwan Goodley	WR	5'10, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	6	33	0	5.5	5.5	50.0%
Johnny Jefferson	RB	5'11, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Terence Williams	RB	6'2, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Antwan Goodley	WR	5'10, 225	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	109	71	1339	66.1%	25.1%	47.6%	12.4	488	11.4	223.1
Tevin Reese	IR				64	38	867	59.4%	14.7%	64.6%	13.5	387	14.3	143.4
Corey Coleman	WR	5'10, 185	So.	4 stars (5.8)	61	35	527	57.4%	14.0%	61.1%	8.6	77	6.3	87.2
Levi Norwood	IR	6'1, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	60	47	733	78.3%	13.8%	58.1%	12.2	215	11.9	121.2
Clay Fuller	IR	6'1, 210	Sr.	NR	55	32	512	58.2%	12.6%	46.2%	9.3	104	8.8	84.7
Jay Lee	WR	6'2, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	37	22	309	59.5%	8.5%	66.7%	8.4	31	13.5	51.1
Robbie Rhodes	WR				18	10	157	55.6%	4.1%	0.0%	8.7	26	0.6	26.0
Jordan Najvar	TE				13	10	85	76.9%	3.0%	40.0%	6.5	-26	7.2	14.1
Shock Linwood	RB	5'8, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	5	4	19	80.0%	1.1%	75.0%	3.8	-25	3.0	3.1
Darius Jones	CB				4	1	5	25.0%	0.9%	N/A	1.3	-17	0.0	0.8
Lynx Hawthorne	WR	5'11, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	3	2	14	66.7%	0.7%	N/A	4.7	-10	0.0	2.3
Glasco Martin	RB				2	1	25	50.0%	0.5%	0.0%	12.5	11	5.6	4.1
Jerod Monk	TE				2	2	53	100.0%	0.5%	N/A	26.5	33	0.0	8.8
Cal Spangler	IR	5'10, 185	Jr.	NR
Quan Jones	WR	6'5, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
KD Cannon	WR	5'11, 160	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)
Davion Hall	WR	6'2, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	108.3	3.15	3.25	43.0%	69.2%	16.5%	136.2	3.8%	4.9%
Rank	35	32	66	23	64	22	31	41	41

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Cyril Richardson	LG				42	Consensus All-American, Jim Parker Trophy, 1st All-Big 12
Spencer Drango	LT	6'5, 315	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	22	1st All-Big 12
Troy Baker	RT	6'6, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	15
Kelvin Palmer	LT				13
Stefan Huber	C				13
Desmine Hilliard	RG	6'4, 330	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13
Pat Colbert	LT	6'5, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	2
Tyler Edwards	RT	6'6, 295	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
LaQuan McGowan	LG	6'6, 385	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Blake Muir	LG	6'6, 300	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Kyle Fuller	C	6'4, 305	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Jarell Broxton	RG	6'5, 330	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Josh Pelzel	OL	6'6, 335	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

5. The depth isn't spectacular

Even with Richardson still manning the left guard position, it only took the loss of Drango to create a bit of a sieve up front for Baylor. The line was still decent, but the line stats decreased dramatically, raising pretty serious questions about depth.

Granted, it's hard to worry too much about Baylor's skill positions; if the Bears lose Goodley for a significant amount of time, that could hurt, but there's plenty of firepower on the second string. But if there's an injury at quarterback or on the offensive line, the second-stringer might be a pretty big step behind the starter.

Now, depth is a pretty good Biggest Problem to have — it only might hurt you. But it still could. It did in 2013.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	83	IsoPPP+	97.2	78
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.5%	17	Succ. Rt. +	112.4	23
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.9	50	Off. FP+	101.5	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	55	Redzone S&P+	109.5	26
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	32.1		ACTUAL	29.0	-3.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	27	31	23	50
RUSHING	39	38	40	65
PASSING	34	34	13	31
Standard Downs		31	26	82
Passing Downs		28	15	72

Q1 Rk	62	1st Down Rk	47
Q2 Rk	5	2nd Down Rk	10
Q3 Rk	31	3rd Down Rk	24
Q4 Rk	10

6. We caught glimpses

Phil Bennett isn't exactly the most beloved defensive coordinator in the country. The 58-year-old former SMU head coach and nearly 25-year coordinator (Iowa State for four years, Purdue for five, LSU for three, Texas A&M for two, TCU for one, Kansas State for three, Pittsburgh for three, Baylor for three and counting) has done two things that don't tend to reflect well on you in this role: allow lots of points and allow lots of yards.

Bennett inherited a unit that had ranked 97th in Def. F/+ in 2010, and in his first two years, the Bears technically improved, but only to 87th and 79th. They allowed 37 points and 488 yards per game in 2011, then allowed 37 and 502, respectively, in 2012. Improvement is improvement, but the defense was still a major liability.

In 2013, however, we caught glimpses of Bennett's vision. The Baylor defense is going to face far too many plays to post what we might deem high-quality traditional stats; its job is to simply break serve, to make as many big quick stops and force as many costly mistakes as possible. You can move the ball on Baylor, and in 2013, you could pull off quite a few big plays. But the Bears became quite proficient at forcing three-and-outs and turnovers, and that's all this offense needs. They'll give you a few big plays, knowing that their offense can create even more. But if they flip the field on you a few times, you're probably toast.

Baylor managed to combine an active secondary with a monstrous, strong front line in 2013. Things ran off the rails when the defense's quarterback and mess-cleaner, Bryce Hager, went down, but he's back (or at least, he should be), as are most of the weapons up front. If the front six can improve further, it might take pressure off of a rebuilt secondary.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.5	2.53	2.94	33.5%	63.3%	24.4%	92.1	4.1%	5.0%
Rank	29	15	27	16	39	11	75	72	103

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jamal Palmer	DE	6'3, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	32.5	4.3%	11.0	5.0	0	1	5	0
Chris McAllister	DE				13	31.0	4.1%	11.5	6.0	1	0	0	0
Shawn Oakman	DE	6'9, 280	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	27.0	3.5%	12.5	2.0	0	0	2	0
Andrew Billings	NT	6'0, 310	So.	4 stars (5.8)	11	23.5	3.1%	4.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Beau Blackshear	DT	6'4, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	23.0	3.0%	6.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Byron Bonds	DT	6'0, 275	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	16.5	2.2%	3.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Suleiman Masumbuko	NT	6'2, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	11.5	1.5%	2.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Terrance Lloyd	DE				13	11.0	1.4%	3.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Trevor Clemons-Valdez	DT	6'3, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Peni Tagive	DE	6'3, 225	So.	NR	5	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Terrell Brooks	DT	6'4, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	2.0	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Sam Ukwuachu (Boise State 2012)	DE	6'5, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	25.5	3.4%	7.0	4.5	0	1	0	2
Javonte Magee	DT	6'5, 280	So.	4 stars (5.9)
Brian Nance	DE	6'2, 250	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
K.J. Smith	DE	6'2, 255	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. A fearsome front

Baylor brings in linemen of all shapes and sizes. You've got mountainous Shawn Oakman. You've got squatty (literally squatty) Andrew Billings. You've got linebacker-sized end Jamal Palmer. You've also got a lot of quality. Oakman, a Penn State transfer, became eligible in 2013; combined with the emergence of Palmer and the immediate contribution of Billings, Baylor suddenly had a young (mostly freshmen and sophomores), viable defensive front.

While the loss of Chris McAllister and Terrance Lloyd could hurt (the two combined for 8.5 sacks on a defense that needed a few more sacks), it might only hurt so much. Six players with at least 2.5 tackles for loss return, and Baylor welcomes Boise State transfer Sam Ukwuachu to the rotation, along with four-star sophomore Javonte Magee (injured in 2013) and four-star redshirt freshman Brian Nance. Baylor's line, so bad for so long, is easily now one of the best in the conference.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Eddie Lackey	WLB				13	86.0	11.3%	13.0	4.5	3	2	1	0
Bryce Hager	MLB	6'2, 235	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	9	58.5	7.7%	2.5	1.0	0	3	0	1
Brody Trahan	WLB				13	34.0	4.5%	1.5	0.5	0	1	1	0
Aiavion Edwards	WLB	6'1, 225	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	18.0	2.4%	3.5	1.5	0	1	0	0
Kendall Ehrlich	MLB	6'1, 225	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	13.0	1.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Raaquan Davis	WLB	6'2, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Xavier Phillips	LB	6'0, 230	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Taylor Young	WLB	5'10, 225	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Grant Campbell	MLB	6'1, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Ahmad Dixon	DS				13	67.0	8.8%	2	0	1	6	1	0
Sam Holl	NB				13	53.0	6.9%	10	3.5	1	6	1	0
Terrell Burt	CS	5'10, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	48.5	6.4%	1.5	0	2	4	0	0
K.J. Morton	CB				12	43.0	5.6%	6.5	1.5	3	10	3	0
Orion Stewart	DS	6'2, 185	So.	2 stars (5.3)	13	32.0	4.2%	0	0	1	4	0	0
Demetri Goodson	CB				11	24.0	3.1%	0	0	3	13	0	0
Joe Williams	CB				13	13.0	1.7%	0	0	2	8	0	0
Patrick Levels	NB	5'8, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13	12.0	1.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Prince Kent	NB				13	10.0	1.3%	0.5	0	0	1	1	0
Ryan Reid	CB	5'11, 175	So.	3 stars (5.7)	7	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Kiante' Griffin	DB	6'0, 215	So.	3 stars (5.7)	11	5.5	0.7%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Taion Sells	CS	5'10, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	5.5	0.7%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Xavien Howard	CB	6'2, 200	So.	2 stars (5.2)	13	5.0	0.7%	0	0	1	0	1	0
Anthony Webb	S	6'0, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Terrence Singleton	CB	5'11, 195	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	4.0	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Collin Brence	NB	5'11, 205	Sr.	NR	11	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Alfred Pullom	DS	6'2, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Travon Blanchard	S	6'2, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Chris Sanders	CB	6'1, 185	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Tion Wright	DB	5'8, 170	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Jourdan Blake	DB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. A barren backfield

Baylor was in a lot of ways Michigan State Lite on defense in 2013. (That's pretty much where the State comparisons stop, of course.) The Bears played as physically as possible, sacrificing a few big plays for a series of three-and-outs, and their primary goal in the secondary was to dare officials to call penalties, banking on the fact that they won't get called for pass interference or holding or unnecessary roughness on every play. As with State, the gambit failed once — State was called for numerous costly pass interference penalties against Notre Dame, and Baylor DBs were constantly getting flagged in the Fiesta Bowl — but it worked more often than not.

Bennett presumably wants to play the same style in 2014, but he'll have to do so without a successful set of senior defensive backs. Safeties Ahmad Dixon and Sam Holl combined for 12 tackles for loss and 14 passes defensed, while corners K.J. Morton, Demetri Goodson, and Joe Williams combined for 6.5 tackles for loss (all from Morton) and a devastating 39 passes defensed. Junior safety Terrell Burt does return, as do sophomores Orion Stewart and Patrick Levels.

But the cornerback position is going to be all sorts of green this fall, and physical corners like Morton and Goodson don't grow on trees. There will almost certainly be a step backwards in terms of pass defense. Again, if the front six can counteract that regression, then this could again be a top-30 defense. But the odds of an overall drop-off are decent.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Spencer Roth	6'4, 225	Sr.	52	45.8	7	20	17	71.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Aaron Jones			99	59.6	40	4	40.4%
Kyle Peterson	5'11, 205	Jr.	18	57.2	3	0	16.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Aaron Jones			82-82	10-14	71.4%	4-9	44.4%
Kyle Peterson	5'11, 205	Jr.	6-7	0-0		1-1	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Corey Coleman	KR	5'10, 185	So.	17	28.4	1
Clay Fuller	KR	6'1, 210	Sr.	12	16.8	0
Levi Norwood	PR	6'1, 195	Sr.	25	9.6	2
Cal Spangler	PR	5'10, 185	Jr.	2	5.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	88
Field Goal Efficiency	93
Punt Return Efficiency	89
Kick Return Efficiency	42
Punt Efficiency	91
Kickoff Efficiency	64
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	27

9. Not quite enough from special teams

Quite a few good teams had extreme special teams liabilities in 2013. South Carolina ranked 10th in overall F/+ but 113th in Special Teams F/+, Arizona ranked 25th and 106th, and Ole Miss ranked 28th and 92nd. In comparison, Baylor's No. 88 unit certainly could have been worse, but the place kicking was quite shaky, kick and punt coverage were full of glitches (it takes some serious breakdowns to average 45.8 yards per punt and still rank only 91st in Punt Efficiency), and while the return game produced three touchdowns, it also produced quite a few paltry returns.

This was a feast-or-famine unit on a feast-or-famine team, but with the return of all the return men and a strong-legged punter in Spencer Roth, there should probably be some improvement this year.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	SMU	76
6-Sep	Northwestern State	NR
12-Sep	at Buffalo	96
27-Sep	at Iowa State	80
4-Oct	at Texas	38
11-Oct	TCU	31
18-Oct	at West Virginia	71
1-Nov	Kansas	104
8-Nov	at Oklahoma	17
22-Nov	Oklahoma State	18
29-Nov	vs. Texas Tech	46
6-Dec	Kansas State	41

Five-Year F/+ Rk	8.0% (38)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	29
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	13 / 7.0
TO Luck/Game	+2.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (6, 6)

10. Beware Oct. 4

Thanks to the losses in the skill positions and the secondary, expectations are not extraordinarily high for Baylor in 2013. This is a good thing — new powers sometimes wilt under the weight of extra expectations. But there's still a lot of upside here, especially on offense and on the defensive line, and the schedule is conducive to another fast start.

If you're a Baylor fan, you're looking at the above schedule and thinking, "Cool! 8-0 start!" Baylor faces only two projected top-30 teams, and both come after Nov. 1. And the four road games that come before the trip to Norman are against teams that combined to go just 23-27 last year. For a defending conference champion, that slate should be quite manageable.

But you just know that Texas is going to be swinging hard in Austin on Oct. 4. The first big home game of the Charlie Strong-era comes against the team whose rise (in both quality and general offensive excitement) coincided almost perfectly with the fall in Austin. That Texas maybe beating Baylor in Austin is a legitimate Upset Watch candidate tells you so many funny things about the Big 12's balance of power, but that will be a tough game for Baylor to survive. Do so, then handle TCU the next week, and the Bears will enter November as serious contenders for a second straight conference title.

"Survive an upset bid in Austin, and Baylor could be positioned well for another conference title run." Go back to 2008 and run that sentence by a Baylor fan or general college football fan. See what their reaction is.