The big 2014 Virginia football preview: Can London pull off a comeback?

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1. All the ingredients of a successful program ... except the success

According to 247 Sports, Virginia's last four recruiting classes have all ranked 32nd or better in the team rankings. According to Rivals.com, the Cavaliers will begin 2014 with former four- or five-star recruits at running back (Taquan Mizzell), receiver (Darius Jennings, Dominique Terrell, Canaan Severin, Jamil Kamara), offensive line (Steven Moss), defensive line (Eli Harold, Mike Moore, Kwontie Moore, Andrew Brown), and, more than anywhere else, defensive back (Brandon Phelps, Tim Harris, Demetrious Nicholson, Kirk Garner, Quin Blanding).

Head coach Mike London is entering his fifth year on the job -- few hires make it that far today -- and his coaching staff is loaded with veterans of big-time college or professional football: Tom O'Brien, Jon Tenuta, Steve Fairchild, Mike Archer.

The Hoos have had four players drafted over the last two years. Virginia had one of the most efficient defenses, and one of the most aggressive, effective pass defenses, in the country in 2013.

The Cavaliers return 17 starters in 2014. They return almost every member of an excellent secondary, plus five front-seven members who logged at least 7.5 tackles for loss in 2013. The offensive line is big and seasoned. The offensive backfield is positively loaded with both experience and high ceilings. This program has all the makings of a up-and-comer ready to break through.

The only thing missing is any semblance of either success or a potential breakthrough.

This burgeoning power has gone 6-18 since an appearance in the 2011 Chick-fil-A Bowl. Since suffering only one losing season in 19 years between 1987-2005, they've suffered five in the last six years, three in four under London.

London crafted a nearly perfect résumé for a future Virginia head coach. He was a successful defensive line coach at both Boston College and Virginia. He had NFL coaching experience (Houston Texans, 2005). He was the defensive coordinator for two of Virginia's best defenses of the last decade (2006-07). He led Richmond to the 2008 FCS Championship in 2008 and went 24-5 in two years there, then moved about an hour northwest, back to Charlottesville.

London has exceeded expectations from a recruiting standpoint, and he has loaded his staff with wise old hands. And he has barely won anything. One has to figure London got a fifth year on the job, in part, because of recruiting and potential. Despite diminishing returns, Virginia still landed top-35 classes in 2013 and 2014. And to be sure, Virginia will be better than it was last year, perhaps very much so. Experience of this level almost inevitably leads to improvement.

But how much improvement is enough from a team that enters 2014 on a nine-game losing streak overall and a 10-year losing streak to Virginia Tech and lost at home to Ball State by 21 points and Clemson by 49?

Virginia was better than its record would suggest last year (at 79th, the Cavs were ahead of teams like Buffalo, UL-Lafayette, Arkansas, San Diego State, and Rutgers) and really is rich with experience this fall. It feels like the only thing less likely than Virginia losing this much with this level of recruiting would be Virginia suddenly becoming a good team again, but with this ceiling and experience, the Hoos will at least have a non-zero shot of doing so.

That isn't really something you put on season ticket posters, but it's the best I can do. Virginia Football 2014: Hope is not lost, but don't get too worked up over here.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 79
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	BYU	30	19-16	W	12.8 - 14.2	L
7-Sep	Oregon	5	10-59	L	17.5 - 31.6	L
21-Sep	VMI	N/A	49-0	W	26.5 - 2.1	W
28-Sep	at Pittsburgh	54	3-14	L	4.4 - 4.0	W
5-Oct	Ball State	57	27-48	L	27.5 - 24.2	W	2.5
12-Oct	at Maryland	63	26-27	L	31.8 - 37.1	L	1.7
19-Oct	Duke	41	22-35	L	19.9 - 26.3	L	3.3
26-Oct	Georgia Tech	34	25-35	L	24.9 - 34.2	L	-3.5
2-Nov	Clemson	16	10-59	L	14.6 - 29.2	L	-6.5
9-Nov	at North Carolina	38	14-45	L	19.6 - 28.0	L	-8.8
23-Nov	at Miami	36	26-45	L	25.5 - 21.1	W	-6.9
30-Nov	Virginia Tech	27	6-16	L	23.6 - 25.9	L	-6.1

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-11.9%	108	+4.6%	39	-0.4%	79
Points Per Game	19.8	111	33.3	99
Adj. Points Per Game	20.7	116	23.2	22

2. It only took one injury for the whole thing to fall apart

Through three games, Virginia wasn't exactly showing epic promise, but the Cavs were winning. They had lucked into a win over BYU -- I would certainly say that getting outgained by 139 yards and winning by three involves some luck -- and handled VMI as you're supposed to handle VMI. They got smoked by Oregon, but that will happen; if they could play well at home and steal a road win over a Pitt or Maryland, they could be bowling.

The offense improved, but only to a level that was still well below average. But when cornerback Demetrious Nicholson was lost for the season with an injury against Ball State, the defense stumbled just long enough for the Hoos to lose some winnable games (by one at Maryland, but 13 and 10 at home to Duke and Georgia Tech) and rule out bowl eligibility. But even as the defense rebounded, the team kept losing.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Virginia 17.7, Opponent 15.2 (plus-2.5)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Opponent 31.0, Virginia 22.2 (minus-8.8)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 2 games): Virginia 24.6, Opponent 23.5 (plus-1.1)

In 11 games against FBS opponents, Virginia's offense peaked at 5.5 yards per play. The national average was around 5.7. In eight games, the offense was at 4.8 or lower; in five, 3.8 or lower. A proclaimed "pro-style offense" helped to draw blue-chippers like Taquan Mizzell to Charlottesville, but the passing game was a trainwreck, there were no big-play weapons to be found (outside of maybe running back Khalek Shepherd), and an experienced line couldn't make enough of a difference. Like Wake Forest, Virginia wasted an exciting defense by giving it next to no support.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	0.98	121	IsoPPP+	87.5	119
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	35.5%	119	Succ. Rt. +	90.6	92
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	33.9	120	Def. FP+	96.4	94
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.3	118	Redzone S&P+	92.3	90
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	30.5		ACTUAL	26	-4.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	90	103	93	83
RUSHING	77	86	85	73
PASSING	83	115	97	78
Standard Downs		94	88	94
Passing Downs		114	100	125

Q1 Rk	70	1st Down Rk	84
Q2 Rk	95	2nd Down Rk	111
Q3 Rk	106	3rd Down Rk	61
Q4 Rk	107

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

David Watford

6'2, 200

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

244

427

2202

8

15

57.1%

19

4.3%

4.6

Greyson Lambert

6'5, 220

So.

3 stars (5.7)

33

75

340

1

2

44.0%

5

6.3%

3.5

Matt Johns

6'5, 205

So.

3 stars (5.5)

Brendan Marshall

6'5, 210

RSFr.

3 stars (5.6)

Corwin Cutler

6'4, 185

Fr.

3 stars (5.7)

3. A pass-first offense that couldn't pass

Offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild was Sonny Lubick's offensive coordinator during Colorado State's heyday (1997-2000). He replaced Mike Martz as the St. Louis Rams' coordinator from 2003-05 and ran the show for the Buffalo Bills' offense from 2006-07. He spent four years as Colorado State's head coach (2008-11). In almost 20 years of running an offense, Fairchild has most likely never had a less effective quarterback arrangement than he had in 2013.

Virginia had a pass-first offense that couldn't even remotely pass. David Watford took most of the snaps behind center and was spelled with increasing frequency by then-freshman Greyson Lambert late in the year. Watford averaged 9.0 yards per completion, an absurdly low number even by short-passing-game standards. To be effective at 9.0 yards per completion, your completion rate needs to be 70 percent or higher. Watford's was 57 percent. He crossed 60 percent just twice in his last nine games and managed a passer rating greater than a paltry 115 just twice (and once was against VMI). Lambert came in and provided explosive numbers by comparison (10.3 yards per completion!) ... with an atrocious 44 percent completion rate. Against Clemson, Lambert was a combined 7-for-27 for 87 yards and two interceptions.

There are bad passing games, and there's Virginia's passing game. The Hoos were more explosive than exactly one team on passing downs: Florida International. And it's not like you can only blame the quarterbacks. Only running backs managed a greater than 60 percent catch rate, and only Tim Smith (15.0 yards per catch) and Keeon Johnson (14.1) even hinted at some level of explosiveness. There was just nothing here.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Kevin Parks	RB	5'8, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	227	1031	11	4.5	4.6	32.2%
David Watford	QB	6'2, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	85	344	3	4.0	3.9	36.5%
Khalek Shepherd	RB	5'8, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	51	304	1	6.0	9.5	31.4%
Taquan Mizzell	RB	5'10, 185	So.	5 stars (6.1)	45	184	1	4.1	4.1	33.3%
Daniel Hamm	RB	5'10, 190	RSFr.	NR	23	141	2	6.1	2.2	65.2%
LaChaston Smith	RB	6'0, 215	So.	3 stars (5.7)	10	44	0	4.4	2.5	50.0%
Kye Morgan	RB	5'11, 175	So.	3 stars (5.6)	8	13	0	1.6	0.9	12.5%
Darius Jennings	WR	5'11, 175	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	4	19	0	4.8	8.7	25.0%
Greyson Lambert	QB	6'5, 220	So.	3 stars (5.7)	4	5	0	1.3	2.3	25.0%

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jake McGee	TE				81	43	395	53.1%	16.9%	47.9%	4.9	-182	4.9	34.2
Darius Jennings	WR-Z	5'11, 175	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	75	38	340	50.7%	15.6%	43.9%	4.5	-183	4.6	29.4
Kevin Parks	RB	5'8, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	45	38	329	84.4%	9.4%	53.7%	7.3	-76	7.5	28.5
Tim Smith	WR-Z				45	26	389	57.8%	9.4%	52.9%	8.6	56	9.7	33.7
Keeon Johnson	WR-X	6'3, 215	So.	3 stars (5.6)	44	20	282	45.5%	9.2%	50.0%	6.4	-11	6.0	24.4
Taquan Mizzell	RB	5'10, 185	So.	5 stars (6.1)	37	29	164	78.4%	7.7%	42.9%	4.4	-156	3.8	14.2
Zachary Swanson	TE	6'6, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	33	19	173	57.6%	6.9%	64.3%	5.2	-71	5.3	15.0
Khalek Shepherd	RB	5'8, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	31	23	125	74.2%	6.5%	64.3%	4.0	-135	3.8	10.8
Dominique Terrell	WR-Z	5'11, 175	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	25	14	107	56.0%	5.2%	55.0%	4.3	-75	5.1	9.3
E.J. Scott	WR				14	3	30	21.4%	2.9%	0.0%	2.1	-43	0.5	2.6
Kyle Dockins	WR-W	6'3, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)	13	8	96	61.5%	2.7%	40.0%	7.4	-3	6.5	8.3
Canaan Severin	WR-W	6'2, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	10	5	43	50.0%	2.1%	0.0%	4.3	-26	3.0	3.7
Miles Gooch	WR-Z	6'3, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	8	2	25	25.0%	1.7%	N/A	3.1	-18	0.0	2.2
Rob Burns	TE	6'7, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	6	1	0	16.7%	1.3%	N/A	0.0	-30	0.0	0.0
Jamall Brown	WR-X	6'0, 205	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Andre Levrone	WR-X	6'2, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Ryan Santoro	WR-W	6'2, 205	RSFr.	NR
Jamil Kamara	WR	6'2, 210	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)

4. Starving for big plays

Johnson did show some glimpses of explosiveness as a freshman, backup running back Khalek Shepherd had a combined 18 carries for 164 yards against Oregon, Maryland, and Miami. Both Kevin Parks and five-star sophomore Taquan Mizzell have perfectly acceptable speed. And at the very least, incoming freshman Jamil Kamara gives Virginia another four-star option. In theory, there's athleticism here, but almost none of it translated to on-field big plays; Virginia had 34 gains of 20+ yards in 2013, 121st in the country. Without eating up big chunks of yardage, you have to play nearly flawless, efficient football to move the ball. Virginia was neither flawless nor particularly efficient.

Though almost everybody returns, the skill position roster could look quite a bit different this fall. Lambert overtook Watford as starting quarterback. Johnson, Kyle Dockins (eight catches in 2013), and Miles Gooch (two catches) finished the spring on the first string. That doesn't mean it will remain that way in the fall, but it does serve as a reminder that no incumbents are safe when the incumbents aren't actually very good.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.4	2.89	2.33	34.8%	69.0%	20.4%	143.6	4.8%	4.4%
Rank	90	75	123	108	65	77	23	70	28

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Morgan Moses	LT				43
Luke Bowanko	C				37
Conner Davis	LG	6'5, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	20
Jay Whitmire	LT	6'6, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13
Eric Smith	RT	6'5, 295	So.	2 stars (5.4)	8
Ross Burbank	RG	6'4, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	4
Cody Wallace	LG	6'4, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.1)	3
Jackson Matteo	C	6'5, 290	So.	2 stars (5.3)	1
Sadiq Olanrewaju	LT	6'6, 290	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Sean Karl	RT	6'6, 305	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Michael Mooney	RT	6'6, 290	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Eric Tetlow	C	6'6, 310	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Ryan Doull	RG	6'5, 305	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Jack McDonald	RG	6'5, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jake Fieler	RG	6'5, 290	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Steven Moss	OL	6'5, 275	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

5. So many sophomores

Compared to the other numbers, Virginia's line stats weren't too bad. Considering the Cavaliers had two linemen drafted (Morgan Moses was a third-rounder, Luke Bowanko a sixth-rounder), this makes sense.

But two guys do not a line make, and Virginia still returns six players with starting experience (49 career starts), including two sophomores. Five other sophomores will likely have a spot on the depth chart, as could freshmen Jake Fieler (in for spring) and Steven Moss (a four-star guy) pretty soon. The left side of the line is experienced, but even if the line numbers get a bit shakier in 2014, the future is bright for this unit.

Of course, one could say the same about the offense as a whole. It's possible that the best quarterback (Lambert), running back (Mizzell), and receiver (Johnson) are also sophomores. This offense could develop rather quickly in 2015 and 2016. The question is, who will be coaching these players at that time?

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.36	120	IsoPPP+	90.9	109
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	37.9%	22	Succ. Rt. +	119.1	10
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.2	88	Off. FP+	99.5	68
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	116	Redzone S&P+	104.6	42
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.5		ACTUAL	21.0	-4.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	66	24	10	40
RUSHING	75	37	23	60
PASSING	67	16	7	26
Standard Downs		11	8	75
Passing Downs		55	41	108

Q1 Rk	28	1st Down Rk	17
Q2 Rk	9	2nd Down Rk	18
Q3 Rk	16	3rd Down Rk	39
Q4 Rk	78

6. A glitchy Michigan State

The offense gave the defense almost no points and awful field position, but the defense still allowed 16 or fewer points four times and played above average-to-good defense for most of the season. Jon Tenuta's D was ultra aggressive in 2013 and produced some of the best success rates in the country. The Cavaliers were outstanding on standard downs, and while glitches started to appear on passing downs, this defense was still successful more often than not. And as I've discussed quite a bit this offseason, if you have to choose one -- efficiency or explosiveness -- you might actually want to choose the former.

Of course, when breakdowns did happen, they were huge breakdowns. The Cavaliers were 39th in allowing 174 gains of 10+ yards but were 100th in allowing 69 gains of 20+ yards and 115th in allowing 39 gains of 30+ yards. You were either gaining three yards or 35 on Virginia. ("We all know how aggressive Jon Tenuta is defensively, and there were times last year when he went overboard.") This was, in essence, a defense similar in style to Michigan State's -- we dare you to beat us deep (it just got beaten a bit more frequently than Michigan State's did).

What's exciting, of course, is that this good defense returns almost everybody.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	115.7	2.70	2.96	37.6%	57.1%	22.9%	111.9	5.4%	7.8%
Rank	19	36	29	45	13	19	38	45	41

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Eli Harold	DE	6'4, 235	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	12	42.5	6.9%	15.0	8.5	0	1	2	0
Jake Snyder	DE				12	35.5	5.7%	7.5	1.5	0	5	1	0
David Dean	DT	6'1, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	30.5	4.9%	7.5	4.0	0	1	1	0
Chris Brathwaite (2012)	DT	6'1, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	27.5	4.3%	10.0	3.5	0	0	1	0
Brent Urban	DT				8	26.5	4.3%	11.5	1.0	0	9	0	0
Mike Moore	DE	6'4, 270	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	10.0	1.6%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Trent Corney	DE	6'3, 250	Jr.	NR	12	8.0	1.3%	4.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
Donte Wilkins	DT	6'2, 290	So.	3 stars (5.6)	9	7.5	1.2%	2.0	0.5	0	0	1	0
Greg Gallop	DT	6'1, 300	Sr.	NR	4	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kwontie Moore	DE	6'2, 250	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	2	2.0	0.3%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andre Miles-Redmond	DT	6'4, 280	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Jack English	DE	6'5, 265	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Andrew Brown	DT	6'4, 300	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
J.J. Jackson	DE	6'4, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. A potentially excellent line

The Cavs' two-deep is almost completely intact at linebacker and in the secondary, and while the line must replace two starters (end Jake Snyder and tackle Brent Urban), it also gets one starter back from 2012 (tackle Chris Brathwaite, an academics casualty in 2013). And because of depth, Brathwaite spent most of spring ball dominating walk-ons on the third string.

In Eli Harold, Virginia has one of the best defensive ends in the country, a blue-chipper from Virginia Beach who is absolutely living up to his potential. In David Dean, the Hoos might have one of the quicker tackles in the ACC, one capable of both standing up to power blocking and getting into the backfield on passing downs. In Mike Moore and Kwontie Moore, UVA has two four-star juniors who showed potential (2.0 tackles for loss among their 12.0 tackles) while buried on the depth chart. In Brathwaite, Greg Gallop and Donte Wilkins, they have three nearly identical tackles to fill out the two-deep. In incoming freshman Andrew Brown (in for spring), they have someone ready to blow up the two-deep at tackle.

Outside of Florida State and Clemson, Virginia probably has the best, deepest defensive line in the league. (And yes, in almost any circumstance, to judge the rest of the ACC effectively, we have to start with "Outside of Florida State and Clemson...")

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Daquan Romero	WLB	6'1, 235	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	66.5	10.7%	7.5	1.5	0	4	0	0
Henry Coley	MLB	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	66.0	10.6%	10.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Max Valles	SLB	6'5, 240	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	15.5	2.5%	5.5	4.0	0	4	1	0
Demeitre Brim	SLB	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	12.5	2.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darius Lee	WLB	6'1, 215	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	7.5	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
D.J. Hill	WLB	6'0, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	7.0	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Zach Bradshaw	WLB	6'3, 220	So.	3 stars (5.6)	5	6.0	1.0%	2.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Mark Hall	SLB	6'2, 245	So.	3 stars (5.6)	9	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Micah Kiser	MLB	6'2, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Anthony Harris	SS	6'1, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	61.0	9.8%	3.5	1	8	6	1	0
DreQuan Hoskey	CB	6'0, 180	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	40.0	6.5%	3	0	1	6	0	0
Maurice Canady	CB	6'2, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	9	35.5	5.7%	2	2	0	8	1	0
Brandon Phelps	FS	6'0, 185	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	12	35.0	5.6%	1	0	0	3	0	0
Tim Harris	CB	6'2, 200	So.	4 stars (5.8)	11	21.0	3.4%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Rijo Walker	FS				12	19.5	3.1%	0.5	0	0	0	1	0
Demetrious Nicholson	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	5	16.0	2.6%	0	0	1	4	0	0
Kelvin Rainey	SS	6'1, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	9.0	1.5%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Divante Walker	CB	5'11, 190	So.	2 stars (5.3)	11	7.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Mason Thomas	SS	6'0, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	6	1.5	0.2%	0.5	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Cooper	FS	6'0, 190	So.	3 stars (5.7)
C.J. Moore	CB	5'10, 160	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Wilfred Wahee	FS	5'11, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Kirk Garner	CB	5'11, 180	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Malcolm Cook	SS	6'1, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Quin Blanding	S	6'4, 210	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
Jeff Farrar	CB	6'1, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. A potentially spectacular secondary

You can obviously be too aggressive for your own good at times. Tenuta toed that line in 2013, but can you blame him? With an offense that ineffective, Virginia's defense had to create its own breaks and did so effectively at times. The offense isn't likely to improve by leaps and bounds, so expect another risk-taking affair from Tenuta this fall. But he really might have the bodies to pull it off.

If the line is the strongest unit on the defense, it's not without quite a bit of competition from the other two units. Last year's starting lienbackers combined for 23 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, and eight passes defensed. They all return, as do the backups. Meanwhile, thanks to injuries and shuffling in 2013, Virginia returns four cornerbacks who both saw extensive playing time and made some plays. Nicholson was getting his hand on a pass per game before his injury, DreQuan Hoskey and Maurice Canady had five tackles for loss and 15 passes defensed between the two of them, and four-star sophomore Tim Harris more or less held his own as a freshman.

These corners will team with a pair of senior safeties ... that is, unless some youngsters can push the seniors for playing time. Anthony Harris was probably a bit lucky to pick off eight passes while breaking up six (the typical ratio of INTs to PBUs is about one to four, not four to three), but he still got his hands on 14 passes while making 3.5 stops behind the line. Brandon Phelps is decent at cleaning up messes. Behind them, three sophomores are vying for the role of 2015 starter, but will have to hold off incoming five-star freshman Quin Blanding to see the field in 2014.

Virginia has had more success recruiting for its secondary than for any other unit, and it shows. Now if only one of these guys could line up at wideout...

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Alec Vozenilek	5'10, 190	Sr.	85	41.2	7	29	23	61.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Dylan Sims	6'0, 185	So.	38	61.3	14	0	36.8%
Ian Frye	6'6, 195	Jr.	14	62.3	3	0	21.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Alec Vozenilek	5'10, 190	Sr.	14-15	11-11	100.0%	1-4	25.0%
Ian Frye	6'6, 195	Jr.	10-10	2-3	66.7%	1-1	100.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Darius Jennings	KR	5'11, 175	Sr.	24	21.8	0
Taquan Mizzell	KR	5'10, 185	So.	21	16.5	0
Dominique Terrell	PR	5'11, 170	Sr.	18	7.9	0
Tim Smith	PR			13	6.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	79
Field Goal Efficiency	32
Punt Return Efficiency	80
Kick Return Efficiency	119
Punt Efficiency	51
Kickoff Efficiency	62
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	62

9. Find a return man

Virginia was decent-to-good in terms of both place-kicking and kick/punt coverage last fall.

But wow, were returns a drain on the field position game. To offset an awful offense, the Cavaliers needed as much field position help as possible from the special teams unit but got very little from Darius Jennings and Taquan Mizzell on kicks and Dominique Terrell and Tim Smith on punts. This team has athletes; surely one of them can at least produce average numbers in the return spot.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	UCLA	20
6-Sep	Richmond	NR
13-Sep	Louisville	16
20-Sep	at BYU	33
27-Sep	Kent State	107
4-Oct	Pittsburgh	39
18-Oct	at Duke	56
25-Oct	North Carolina	35
1-Nov	at Georgia Tech	44
8-Nov	at Florida State	1
22-Nov	Miami	30
28-Nov	at Virginia Tech	19

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-6.2% (78)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	34
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-5 / -5.0
TO Luck/Game	+0.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	17 (7, 10)

10. Opportunities at home

Virginia is basically Wake Forest with more size. Like the Demon Deacons, the Cavaliers had a salty, fun defense whose effect was completely wasted by a feckless offense. And as with Wake, it's probably unfair to assume the offense will improve at any sort of magic, drastic rate in a single offseason. Like Wake, Virginia's offense is loaded with sophomores, and the Hoos probably have greater upside in guys like Mizzell and company. But like Wake, whatever upside the offense has probably won't be reached until 2015 or beyond.

That said, the defense is going to be awesome, potentially great, and it's hard not to notice the opportunities Virginia will have at home in 2015. UCLA, Louisville, Pitt, North Carolina, and Miami all come to Charlottesville (eat at Mel's while you're in town, visiting fans!). Beat Richmond and Kent State and go 3-2 in the above games, and you're one upset from bowl eligibility.

That's probably too much to ask, of course, but it's at least on the table. And with a young, athletic team, some early momentum could be rather beneficial. This isn't going to be a good team in 2014, but it could be competent and strong enough to improve its win total by at least two or three games. And if Mike London has reached Year 5 because of potential and potential alone, that might be enough production to achieve a Year 6.