The big 2014 Syracuse football preview: More excitement, less volatility

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1. Which year is the blip?

It wasn't hard to see a dropoff coming for Syracuse in 2013.

In taking the Buffalo Bills job, Marrone left the Syracuse program earlier than expected. But the timing of his departure could be worse for both parties. For Marrone, his team was due a step backwards in 2013, replacing the quarterback, two best receivers, and two best linemen from a resurgent offense, not to mention a good chunk of the defensive line. Marrone was selling high before his stock ticked down a bit, at least temporarily.

One could argue that the departure came at a decent time for Syracuse, too, at least if Marrone had to leave at all. Recruiting was not really picking up, and as mentioned, the Orange were most likely due a rankings drop this fall. Marrone built an interesting team with an outstanding offensive line and an aggressive defense, and he certainly could have continued to slowly build upstate, but this wasn't the worst time in the world for a change to happen ... if his replacement, Scott Shafer, is up to the task, anyway. (Kind of an important detail there.)

For the first time since we began recording F/+ rankings (2005), Syracuse was a top-40 team in 2012. But the Orange pulled off that feat with a rather experienced (read: old) squad. There was too much youth for the 'Cuse to expect further improvement in the short term, but with only three top-40 teams on the 2013 schedule, the Orange were able to pull off a bit of a late-season rally and hit 7-6 while beating only one top-60 team. They reached their third bowl in four years after getting to only one in the previous seven.

All of this was good for program momentum even if Syracuse was in no way very good. The defense was decent, but the offense regressed dramatically, and ... again, the 'Cuse only beat one top-60 team.

There are five top-40 squads on the schedule this time around, and only two come to the Carrier Dome. Syracuse is going to have to improve to reach its fourth bowl in five years. Scott Shafer and the Orange have to prove that 2013 was the blip, not 2012.

But considering last year's youth, the Orange should improve. They return their starting quarterback, experience and explosiveness at running back, seven of last year's top eight passing targets (for better or worse), four starters on the offensive line, four of the top five defensive linemen, five of the top six linebackers, and four of the top five defensive backs. The team that won four of its final six returns most of the reasons why it won those games.

We still don't know about the long-term prognosis here. We don't know a ton about Scott Shafer's head coaching potential yet, and we still don't know a ton about what offensive coordinator George McDonald wants to do with the ball. But we know that the Orange made a bowl in an inevitable down year, and we know they've got some interesting pieces to play with this time around.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 7-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 75
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	vs. Penn State	61	17-23	L	8.9 - 19.4	L
7-Sep	at Northwestern	59	27-48	L	31.1 - 42.8	L
14-Sep	Wagner	N/A	54-0	W	30.7 - 0.9	W
21-Sep	Tulane	70	52-17	W	41.7 - 27.0	W
5-Oct	Clemson	16	14-49	L	21.0 - 36.4	L	1.4
12-Oct	at N.C. State	92	24-10	W	33.9 - 17.7	W	6.7
19-Oct	at Georgia Tech	34	0-56	L	15.3 - 38.4	L	4.4
2-Nov	Wake Forest	81	13-0	W	24.5 - 12.4	W	0.9
9-Nov	at Maryland	63	20-3	W	26.8 - 16.2	W	0.1
16-Nov	at Florida State	1	3-59	L	20.6 - 45.7	L	-1.9
23-Nov	Pittsburgh	54	16-17	L	18.2 - 17.9	W	-5.0
30-Nov	Boston College	65	34-31	W	31.9 - 35.0	L	-1.0
27-Dec	vs. Minnesota	55	21-17	W	29.4 - 25.6	W	-2.7

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-5.6%	83	-0.3%	63	-0.3%	77
Points Per Game	22.7	99	25.4	57
Adj. Points Per Game	25.7	90	25.8	47

2. A powerful personality

Say this much for Syracuse: the Orange dictated their wins and losses in 2013. When they played well, they played well enough to beat almost anybody, and when they played poorly, they were absolutely dreadful.

• Adj. Points Per Game (Actual Wins): Syracuse 31.3, Opponent 19.3 (plus-12.0)
• Adj. Points Per Game (Actual Losses): Opponent 33.4, Syracuse 19.2 (minus-14.2)

In their wins, the Orange had an above-average offense and a great defense. They averaged 5.7 yards per play against a stout Tulane defense and 7.2 against NC State. They rushed for 362 yards against NC State, 242 against Maryland, and 208 against Minnesota, and they threw for 270 against Boston College and 359 against Wagner.

Defensively, the highs were even higher. They allowed fewer than 5.0 yards per play in five of seven wins, including 3.8 against Maryland, 3.7 against NC State, 3.0 against Wake Forest, and 1.7 against poor Wagner.

And then there were the losses. Northwestern averaged 7.2 yards per play, Clemson 8.1, and Florida State (gulp) 11.6. Georgia Tech held the Orange to 3.8 yards per play, Penn State 3.5, and FSU 3.2. In 33 fewer plays, FSU outgained Syracuse by 276 yards. You didn't control Syracuse; either you dominated the Orange, or the Orange dominated you.

In a lot of ways, these are the characteristics of a young, reasonably high-upside team. But Syracuse took those characteristics to the extremes, and when the team was bad, it was so bad that "upside" didn't really come into the conversation.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.07	99	IsoPPP+	94.1	92
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.2%	92	Succ. Rt. +	99.4	66
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.0	69	Def. FP+	99.4	66
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	80	Redzone S&P+	111.0	24
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.4		ACTUAL	22	+2.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	86	69	67	69
RUSHING	37	33	41	26
PASSING	104	94	89	105
Standard Downs		42	33	78
Passing Downs		102	106	75

Q1 Rk	85	1st Down Rk	64
Q2 Rk	66	2nd Down Rk	78
Q3 Rk	44	3rd Down Rk	53
Q4 Rk	79

3. Picking up the pace

Taking the amount of rushing into account, Syracuse played at a faster pace than the national average in 2013. If George McDonald gets his way this fall, the Orange could move even faster. And in theory, this could work out pretty well. Syracuse was reasonably efficient in Terrel Hunt's first year behind center; the big senior wasn't incredibly explosive, but in his 93 non-sack carries, nearly 60 percent of them gained at least five yards.

Hunt brought efficiency to the table while running backs Jerome Smith, Prince-Tyson Gulley, and Devante McFarlane brought explosiveness. (George Morris II brought neither, but he's got time to improve.) A parry-and-thrust running game can work pretty well, and if you're moving the chains frequently enough, you can have your opponents gassed by the second and fourth quarters.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Terrel Hunt	6'3, 233	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	167	273	1632	10	8	61.2%	14	4.9%	5.4
Drew Allen				68	122	666	2	9	55.7%	4	3.2%	5.0
Charley Loeb				4	6	24	0	0	66.7%	0	0.0%	4.0
Austin Wilson	6'3, 211	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Mitch Kimble	6'3, 201	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Alin Edouard	6'1, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
A.J. Long	6'0, 184	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jerome Smith	RB				200	914	12	4.6	5.6	30.5%
Terrel Hunt	QB	6'3, 233	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	93	577	7	6.2	3.9	58.1%
Prince-Tyson Gulley	RB	5'9, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	83	462	4	5.6	8.5	34.9%
George Morris II	RB	6'0, 201	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	79	334	1	4.2	3.8	30.4%
Devante McFarlane	RB	6'0, 197	So.	3 stars (5.5)	48	292	1	6.1	7.3	39.6%
Drew Allen	QB				11	34	0	3.1	2.2	27.3%
Adonis Ameen-Moore	RB	5'11, 260	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	5	26	0	5.2	3.5	40.0%
Brisly Estime	WR	5'9, 172	So.	3 stars (5.5)	4	11	0	2.8	2.3	50.0%

4. An efficient, explosive running game

After rushing for 2,085 yards in two years, Smith left early for the pros and was picked up by the Falcons as an undrafted free agent. He was good in the open field but wasn't great at finding open field, and that resulted in a hit-or-miss junior season. He rushed for a combined 265 yards (7.2 per carry) against Clemson and NC State and a combined 106 yards (3.2 per carry) against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Florida State. He was both reliable and replaceable.

Prince-Tyson Gulley received an extra year of eligibility thanks to injuries suffered in 2011; he's not necessarily the most durable back in the world, but he's even better in the open field than Smith, and he'll be complemented by big Adonis Ameen-Moore and Devante McFarlane, who thrived in a reserve role. He carried 16 times for 176 yards against Clemson and FSU.

This group will be running behind four-fifths of a line that ranked 27th in Adj. Line yards (fourth in Power Success Rate) last fall. All-conference center Macky MacPherson is gone, but the other four starters have combined for 78 career starts. This is a line that far exceeded its recruiting rankings last year and should do so again, especially with Hunt helping out from an efficiency standpoint.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Ashton Broyld	WR	6'3, 223	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	74	52	452	70.3%	19.9%	53.2%	6.1	-151	6.1	47.3
Christopher Clark	WR				50	36	365	72.0%	13.4%	52.5%	7.3	-48	6.7	38.2
Jarrod West	WR	6'2, 209	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	50	26	397	52.0%	13.4%	30.0%	7.9	44	7.3	41.6
Brisly Estime	WR	5'9, 172	So.	3 stars (5.5)	37	28	257	75.7%	9.9%	44.8%	6.9	-57	6.5	26.9
Jeremiah Kobena	WR	6'0, 188	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	30	16	206	53.3%	8.1%	52.6%	6.9	-8	8.2	21.6
Prince-Tyson Gulley	RB	5'9, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	22	15	59	68.2%	5.9%	58.8%	2.7	-118	3.4	6.2
Alvin Cornelius	WR	6'1, 191	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	17	9	134	52.9%	4.6%	29.4%	7.9	13	6.4	14.0
Josh Parris	TE	6'2, 252	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	17	13	90	76.5%	4.6%	61.5%	5.3	-55	5.6	9.4
Beckett Wales	TE				14	10	72	71.4%	3.8%	36.4%	5.1	-43	6.6	7.5
Jerome Smith	RB	6'0, 226	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	8	74	61.5%	3.5%	61.5%	5.7	-25	5.2	7.7
Kendall Moore	TE	6'5, 248	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	6	65	50.0%	3.2%	100.0%	5.4	-18	2.0	6.8
Adrian Flemming	WR	6'3, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	2	18	40.0%	1.3%	0.0%	3.6	-14	1.6	1.9
Quinta Funderburk	WR	6'3, 209	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	5	3	50	60.0%	1.3%	0.0%	10.0	12	12.4	5.2
Corey Winfield	HB	6'1, 182	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Tyler Provo	TE	6'3, 238	So.	3 stars (5.5)
K.J. Williams	WR	6'2, 188	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Steve Ishmael	WR	6'2, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Corey Cooper	WR	6'0, 198	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. An inefficient, non-explosive passing game

The problem in 2013 was that once Syracuse fell behind schedule, the drive was ending rather quickly. And without some early help from an exciting batch of youngsters, the passing game could trip the Orange up again this fall. And as we've said many times throughout this preview series, pace backfires if you're going three-and-out in record time.

Syracuse ranked 42nd in Standard Downs S&P+ but 102nd in Passing Downs S&P+. Hunt completed a decent 61 percent of his passes with a decent five percent sack rate, but his receiving corps, rebuilt after featuring Marcus Sales and Alec Lemon in 2012, couldn't get open downfield. His top four targets combined to average only 10.4 yards per catch, and while seven of the top eight targets return, none of them averaged even 8.0 yards per target.

There's hope in the incoming freshman class. Knowing an upgrade was needed, Shafer signed five receivers in his 2014 class, including four-star wideout K.J. Williams and high-three-star Steve Ishmael. Throw in sophomore slot receiver Brisly Estime, and you've got some interesting potential here. But potential might not become production until 2015 or later.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	110.3	3.03	2.62	36.8%	81.0%	17.9%	136.1	2.6%	6.4%
Rank	27	51	113	93	4	47	32	15	57

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Macky MacPherson	C				38	2nd All-ACC
Sean Hickey	LT	6'5, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	26
Rob Trudo	RG	6'3, 292	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	22
Ivan Foy	RT	6'4, 318	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	17
Nick Robinson	RG	6'5, 281	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13
Daniel Anyaegbunam	RG				0
Kyle Knapp	RG				0
John Miller	C	6'2, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Omari Palmer	LG	6'2, 316	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Jason Emerich	C	6'3, 282	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Michael Lasker	RT	6'3, 320	Jr.	NR	0
Alex Hayes	LG	6'2, 315	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Jon Burton	RT	6'6, 325	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Jamar McGloster	LT	6'5, 311	So.	NR	0
Denzel Ward	OL	6'8, 320	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Aaron Roberts	OL	6'4, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.15	65	IsoPPP+	98.2	68
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.2%	50	Succ. Rt. +	99.7	54
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.8	53	Off. FP+	100.5	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	81	Redzone S&P+	94.8	77
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.3		ACTUAL	24.0	+2.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	34	55	54	68
RUSHING	26	56	51	54
PASSING	63	59	68	86
Standard Downs		66	67	68
Passing Downs		58	46	80

Q1 Rk	92	1st Down Rk	43
Q2 Rk	39	2nd Down Rk	81
Q3 Rk	74	3rd Down Rk	48
Q4 Rk	18

6. Almost perfectly mediocre

In 2012, when Shafer was wearing the defensive coordinator hat, Syracuse attacked and attacked and attacked. The Orange had six players in the front seven with at least 8.5 tackles for loss; only two of the six returned in 2013, however, so there was reason to fear a dropoff.

The drop was minimal; Syracuse fell only from fourth in the country in tackles for loss in 2012 to 17th in 2013. The Orange spread the love, with nine players recording at least 4.5 TFLs, and seven of those nine return this fall.

The mindset of the Orange defense is clear, and typically an aggressive defense like this ends up ranking pretty high in the efficiency rankings while suffering breakdowns and ranking lower in the explosiveness rankings. Syracuse, though, was almost perfectly mediocre across the board, just as it was in 2012. The Orange ranked between 50th and 70th in a vast majority of the rankings above. It's difficult to be bland and exciting at the same time, but in a way Syracuse pulled it off.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109	2.69	2.79	40.6%	62.5%	22.8%	87.5	7.7%	5.2%
Rank	32	34	22	82	36	21	86	7	97

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jay Bromley	DT				13	36.0	5.3%	13.5	9.0	0	0	3	0
Robert Welsh	DE	6'3, 248	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	29.0	4.3%	7.0	4.0	1	4	0	0
Eric Crume	DT	6'0, 296	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	20.0	2.9%	5.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Micah Robinson	DE	6'4, 270	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	18.0	2.6%	5.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Ron Thompson	DE	6'4, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	15.5	2.3%	4.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Zian Jones	DT				13	12.0	1.8%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
John Raymon	DT	6'5, 325	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	7	6.5	1.0%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Johnson	DE	6'4, 276	So.	2 stars (5.4)	10	4.0	0.6%	1.5	1.5	1	1	0	0
Marcus Coleman	DT	6'1, 286	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	5	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Sloan	DT	6'2, 320	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	5	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Donnie Simmons	DE	6'2, 251	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)
Wayne Williams	DT	6'4, 330	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Chris Slayton	DE	6'5, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. The line did its job (against the run)

Syracuse racked up a lovely TFLs total despite a rather sketchy pass rush. A lot of this had to do with the Orange's ability to attack the run. Syracuse ranked 21st in Stuff Rate and 36th in Power Success Rate, stunting like crazy and attacking gaps with machetes. The best pass rusher was a tackle (Jay Bromley), but the line did quite well against the run.

Can the Orange maintain this play in 2014? The loss of Bromley and Zian Jones could hurt, and it appears that John Raymon might not be ready to play this fall after suffering a brutal knee injury against Georgia Tech last year. That leaves tenuous depth in the middle, and it means there's a lot of pressure on incoming JUCO tackle Wayne Williams to thrive quickly.

If tackle isn't a weakness, the end position could make this a great line. Again, the pass rushing here isn't great, but Robert Welsh has his moments, and the ends as a whole were big enough to shoot gaps and make a lot of plays on standard downs.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cameron Lynch	OLB	5'11, 226	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	61.0	9.0%	12.0	4.0	2	4	1	1
Marquis Spruill	MLB				13	57.5	8.4%	14.5	5.5	0	0	0	0
Dyshawn Davis	OLB	6'2, 221	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	40.0	5.9%	7.0	2.5	0	2	0	0
Josh Kirkland	OLB	6'2, 201	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	9	23.5	3.5%	5.5	0.5	0	2	0	0
Marqez Hodge	MLB	6'1, 216	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8	22.5	3.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Luke Arciniega	MLB	6'2, 251	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	16.5	2.4%	2.0	1.0	1	0	0	0
Lewellyn Coker	LB				13	13.5	2.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	2	0
Oliver Vigille	MLB	6'2, 224	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Alryk Perry	OLB	6'1, 211	So.	NR
PJ Batten	OLB	6'3, 227	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Zaire Franklin	LB	6'0, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Jonathan Thomas	LB	6'3, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Colton Moskal	LB	6'1, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Durell Eskridge	FS	6'3, 203	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	65.0	9.6%	4	0.5	4	1	1	0
Darius Kelly	FS	5'11, 195	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	38.0	5.6%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Ritchy Desir	SS	5'11, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	37.5	5.5%	2	0	1	2	1	0
Jeremi Wilkes	SS				13	31.0	4.6%	1.5	0	1	0	0	0
Brandon Reddish	CB	5'11, 178	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	31.0	4.6%	0	0	0	4	1	1
Ri'Shard Anderson	CB				13	24.5	3.6%	2	0	1	1	0	0
Wayne Morgan	CB	5'10, 199	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	18.5	2.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Keon Lyn	CB				5	15.0	2.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Julian Whigham	CB	6'1, 182	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	10.0	1.5%	1	0	3	3	0	0
Jaston George	SS	5'10, 175	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)
Joe Nassib	CB	5'9, 180	Sr.	NR
Eric Jackson	CB	5'7, 171	Jr.	NR
Chauncey Scissum	FS	6'1, 205	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Joe Stanard	CB	5'9, 189	So.	NR
Eric Anthony	FS	6'0, 198	So.	NR
Cordell Hudson	CB	6'0, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Naesean Howard	DB	5'11, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Treevon Prater	DB	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Juwan Dowels	DB	5'10, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

8. Depth issues at cornerback?

Losing middle linebacker Marquis Spruill and safety Jeremi Wilkes isn't optimal, but Syracuse still returns quite a few exciting options in the linebacking corps and secondary. Cameron Lynch is a dual-threat at OLB -- he's strong against run (eight non-sack tackles for loss) and pass (four sacks, six passes defensed) -- and free safety Durell Eskridge pulled off a rare combination in 2013 (four tackles for loss, four interceptions).

If there's a concern in the back seven, it probably comes at cornerback. Syracuse didn't allow a ton of big plays in 2013, but the ones the Orange allowed were a) probably through the air, and b) enormous. Syracuse allowed only 37 passes of 20+ yards (36th in the country), 13 of them went for 40+ (107th). And that was with starters Keon Lyn and Ri'Shard Anderson in the rotation.

Lyn got hurt five games into the season, and both are now gone, leaving senior Brandon Reddish and juniors Wayne Morgan and Julian Whigham to man the islands on the outside. Reddish is experienced, and Whigham is actually quite intriguing (he made only 10.0 tackles while defensing six passes, which means either he batted away everything that came near him or just missed a ton of tackles). But they were hit-or-miss last fall, and if any of these three get hurt, defensive coordinator Chuck Bullough will have to dip into a pool of walk-ons and freshmen.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Riley Dixon	6'5, 219	Sr.	75	42.1	6	29	21	66.7%
Jonathan Fisher			8	39.1	0	3	2	62.5%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Ryan Norton	5'11, 183	Jr.	56	57.3	12	2	21.4%
Riley Dixon	6'5, 219	Sr.	6	56.8	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Ryan Norton	5'11, 183	Jr.	27-29	7-9	77.8%	2-5	40.0%
Ross Krautman	5'7, 157	Sr.	4-5	1-1	100.0%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
George Morris II	KR	6'0, 202	Jr.	15	19.6	0
Devante McFarlane	KR	6'0, 197	Jr.	10	18.4	0
Ritchy Desir	PR	5'11, 185	Sr.	27	4.1	0
Brisly Estime	PR	5'9, 172	So.	4	31.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	77
Field Goal Efficiency	105
Punt Return Efficiency	12
Kick Return Efficiency	99
Punt Efficiency	67
Kickoff Efficiency	65
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	92

9. Hit-or-miss on special teams

Brisly Estime's four punt returns went a really long way, while basically every other return, kick or punt, did not. Punter Riley Dixon had a strong leg, and kick and punt coverage were decent, but place-kicking was shaky (three missed PATs, 2-for-6 on long field goals). Special teams were neither a strength nor weakness last fall, though with everybody back, including Estime, there's certainly potential for improvement.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	Villanova	NR
13-Sep	at Central Michigan	109
20-Sep	Maryland	51
27-Sep	vs. Notre Dame	25
3-Oct	Louisville	16
11-Oct	Florida State	1
18-Oct	at Wake Forest	83
25-Oct	at Clemson	5
1-Nov	N.C. State	66
8-Nov	Duke	56
22-Nov	at Pittsburgh	39
29-Nov	at Boston College	69

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-2.4% (64)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	61
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	2 / 1.9
TO Luck/Game	+0.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (8, 7)

10. Survive the middle

Syracuse has enough experience and potential that, while a return to the top 40 is probably too much to ask for, improvement isn't. And if the Orange can move up into the 50-60 range, another bowl is probably in the cards. That would put them in position to beat the four home opponents projected below 50th, along with CMU and Wake Forest.

The margin for error with this schedule isn't huge, however, and October will pose quite the challenge. Syracuse hosts Louisville and FSU in back-to-back weeks and, after a trip to Wake Forest, visits Clemson. Survive a likely 1-3 stretch in the middle, and there are wins to be found in November.

We'll begin to learn a lot more about Syracuse's ceiling under Shafer this year. There is potential for entertainment here, especially if McDonald gets an efficient offense moving at a breakneck pace and the defense racks up the big plays while suffering fewer breakdowns. But if it's the same story as last year, with great performances getting overshadowed by horrendous ones (and the great-to-horrendous ratio still breaking slightly toward horrendous), then there might be reasons to wonder what kind of consistency a Shafer program will have to offer.

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