The big 2014 West Virginia football guide: Can Holgorsen stop the slide?

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. We'll always have January 4, 2012

Depending on how you want to look at it, West Virginia is on one of two slides, both of them relatively severe.

Slide 1: Since going 15-3 from the beginning of 2011 through the first five games of 2012, the Mountaineers are 6-14.

Slide 2: Since the drama of Dana Holgorsen taking over for Bill Stewart earlier than expected in 2011, WVU has fallen from 17th in the F/+ rankings in 2010, to 19th in 2011, to 47th in 2012, to 76th in 2013. For that matter, the Mountaineers have actually only improved from year-to-year once since 2007 and have regressed five times.

One slide is sudden, the other gradual. But they've both picked up steam, from beating Texas in 2012 and moving to fifth in the polls, to losing by 12 points to Kansas (and giving the Jayhawks their first conference win since 2010) near the end of 2013. Holgorsen, not so long ago one of the hot coaching up-and-comers, has yet to prove that he can recruit at a level high enough to maintain a program. And as we learned last fall, his natural offensive prowess isn't enough to automatically make up the difference. The same person who gave us this...

...also gave us this.

Holgorsen hasn't forgotten how to coach; he has just learned the same lesson that others at smaller schools have learned: tactics don't matter if your personnel isn't very good.

Just based on this game alone, Holgorsen and [offensive coordinator Shannon] Dawson alone were not the problem. The offense, by packaging concepts together and allowing the quarterback to make post-snap reads, allowed for variation in run/pass/screen throughout the game, but none of these concepts were effective behind a porous line and inconsistent quarterback reads. Kansas cheated on short passes and inside runs without fear of being exploited in the deep pass game, but it wasn’t because of a lack of trying.

So, as I seem to be asking in every Big 12 preview ... now what? How does Holgorsen manufacture actual improvement in Morgantown? How does he turn around what has almost been a six-year slide?

For what it's worth, I like some of the moves he's been making. Promoting Keith Patterson to defensive coordinator in 2013 worked out pretty well until injuries and a complete lack of depth led to a late slide. And when Patterson left for Arizona State, I liked what Holgorsen did to replace him; he promoted safeties coach Tony Gibson to coordinator and brought on coaching veteran Tom Bradley -- Joe Paterno's final defensive coordinator -- as defensive line coach and senior associate head coach. And while we don't know about overall depth of recruiting, one has to like the addition of Pittsburgh transfer Rushel Shell and four-star freshman Donte Thomas-Williams at running back, among others.

Holgorsen's fate will be decided by whether he has enough talent, on the field and on his coaching staff. When WVU scored 70 on Clemson in the Orange Bowl, we thought we'd seen the future of football. Instead, we had seen what pace and talent could do against a shaky defense. Without talent, nothing else matters.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 76
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	William & Mary	N/A	24-17	W	25.3 - 32.4	L
7-Sep	at Oklahoma	20	7-16	L	27.7 - 28.2	L
14-Sep	Georgia State	121	41-7	W	31.6 - 14.0	W
21-Sep	vs. Maryland	63	0-37	L	13.2 - 21.3	L
28-Sep	Oklahoma State	8	30-21	W	21.4 - 17.8	W	1.1
5-Oct	at Baylor	7	42-73	L	31.7 - 39.2	L	1.0
19-Oct	Texas Tech	43	27-37	L	26.5 - 38.5	L	-1.3
26-Oct	at Kansas State	24	12-35	L	24.0 - 34.1	L	-6.8
2-Nov	at TCU	44	30-27	W	30.3 - 33.2	L	-5.8
9-Nov	Texas	35	40-47	L	25.2 - 24.8	W	-6.4
16-Nov	at Kansas	101	19-31	L	21.2 - 42.1	L	-9.1
30-Nov	Iowa State	78	44-52	L	32.7 - 39.1	L	-8.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-7.2%	92	-0.4%	65	+0.9%	49
Points Per Game	26.3	79	33.3	100
Adj. Points Per Game	25.9	87	30.4	88

2. Defensive tweaks worked ... for a while

Maintaining a football program can be like gathering sand with your hands. You collect some bits and pieces, while others slide through your fingers. The biggest issue for WVU in Holgorsen's first two years was the defense; after ranking fourth in Def. F/+ in 2010, WVU fell to 48th in 2011 and 69th in 2012. He made moves to rectify things in 2013, and while they appeared to be working, the offense disintegrated. And as the offense worked its way back to at least mediocre, the defense fell apart again.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): WVU 23.8, Opponent 22.7 (plus-1.1)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 7 games): Opponent 38.6, WVU 27.4 (minus-11.2)

Early-season defensive improvement was promising, but in the end there just weren't enough pieces. The defensive line basically had five players, not quite enough for a full two-deep. Only two of the top eight linebackers and three of the top seven defensive backs played in all 12 games. A couple of potential contributors missed the entire season. Eventually the attrition and shuffling were too much to handle, and WVU stopped handling it. And as a result of the season's ebbs and flows, WVU managed to lose conference games by both 16-7 and 52-44 margins.

Last year's injuries could help in the future tense, however. WVU has some work to do at defensive tackle, but the two-deep is otherwise loaded with experience. Now we just have to find out about the actual skill.

That goes for both sides of the ball, actually.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	17	IsoPPP+	111.0	21
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.4%	116	Succ. Rt. +	88.0	102
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	33.1	112	Def. FP+	94.4	111
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	103	Redzone S&P+	99.5	62
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	30.7		ACTUAL	32	+1.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	63	83	103	62
RUSHING	83	109	120	90
PASSING	34	63	65	37
Standard Downs		75	101	17
Passing Downs		85	97	57

Q1 Rk	102	1st Down Rk	43
Q2 Rk	68	2nd Down Rk	105
Q3 Rk	73	3rd Down Rk	51
Q4 Rk	22

3. "But Holgorsen offenses produce at a top-15 level no matter who is on the field ... right?"

It's easy to assume that in losing them, WVU has no choice but to take a step backwards this coming season. But Holgorsen offenses produce at a top-15 level no matter who is on the field ... right? West Virginia's going to move the ball even despite a new quarterback, an almost entirely new receiving corps, and a sketchy offensive line ... right?

-- 2013 West Virginia football's 10 things to know

Wrong.

In the battle of System vs. Talent, Talent scored a knockout victory in Morgantown last year. Without Geno Smith, Tavon Austin, and Stedman Bailey, Holgorsen and Dawson fielded a young toddler of an offense, and the toddler couldn't walk very well. Two new quarterbacks combined to complete 55 percent of their passes with equal touchdowns and interceptions. The running game worked pretty well against Oklahoma and Iowa State and nobody else. The top three pass targets averaged 6.7 yards per target (in 2012: 9.3). The offensive line, already a bit of a liability in 2012, got worse.

To the extent that inexperience was a problem last year, that should be off the table. WVU returns two quarterbacks who threw at least 167 passes, two running backs who carried at least 100 times in their last seasons (including Rushel Shell's 2012 season at Pitt), four wideouts targeted at least 37 times in 2013, and four offensive linemen with starting experience. The question now comes down to pure talent ... a theme I've rather ungracefully hammered you with so far in this piece.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Clint Trickett	6'2, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	123	233	1605	7	7	52.8%	16	6.4%	6.1
Paul Millard	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	92	167	1119	6	6	55.1%	8	4.6%	6.1
Ford Childress				38	63	421	3	3	60.3%	4	6.0%	5.8
Skyler Howard	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)
William Crest	6'2, 210	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

4. Efficiency is a must

Moving away from the "talent!!!" discussion, WVU's problem was one of efficiency in 2013. The big plays were quite large, as evidenced by some of the highlight and per-catch yardage averages below. Charles Sims, Dreamius Smith, and Wendell Smallwood were all rather effective in the open field, and players like Kevin White (14.5 yards per catch), Mario Alford (20.4), and Ronald Carswell (20.7) were home run hitters. WVU ranked 21st in IsoPPP+, an opponent-adjusted look at the magnitude of big plays.

There just weren't enough of the home runs. An Air Raid attack, by nature, is one of efficiency first. Make your reads, catch the snap, throw the ball. In two years under Holgorsen, Geno Smith completed 68 percent of his passes; plus, in 2012, Smith's sack rate was 3.2 and his interception rate was 1.2 percent.

WVU quarterbacks in 2013: 55 percent completion rate, 5.7 percent sack rate, 3.3 percent interception rate. Gross.

Florida State transfer Clint Trickett was viewed as the most talented of last year's three quarterbacks, and Holgorsen recently named him the starter for the beginning of 2014. He's slight in build, and he took more sack than Paul Millard a year ago -- perhaps a sign that he was still getting used to the WVU system's read-and-react components. But he improved after a woeful start in 2013 (first two starts against Oklahoma State and Baylor: 42 percent completion rate, two touchdowns, three picks), and in terms of pure arm strength and upside, he's got it. Holgorsen seems to be banking on things clicking from a mental standpoint in Year 2. And if Trickett struggles then Millard, Skyler Howard, and incoming four-star freshman William Crest will be in a race to see who gets the first crack at replacing him.

If quarterback is a position of steadiness in 2014 (and it really wasn't to any major degree last year), the skill position cast could begin to thrive. Shell wasn't a home run guy at Pitt, but between Shell, Andrew Buie (WVU's leading rusher in 2012; he redshirted last year), Smith, Smallwood, Dustin Garrison (who somehow still has eligibility), and Donte Thomas-Williams, WVU will have one of the Big 12's deepest, most diverse sets of running backs. Buie caught 28 of 33 passes in 2012, which means the running back position should once again contribute via ground and air. And if a pair of redshirt freshman receivers -- four-star Shelton Gibson and run-and-pass threat Jacky Marcellus -- can contribute, the receiving corps might have enough exciting pieces to move the ball.

But the No. 1 receiver simply cannot have a 43 percent catch rate (as Kevin White did last year) in this, or any other system.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Charles Sims	RB				208	1095	11	5.3	6.5	34.6%
Andrew Buie (2012)	RB	5'9, 192	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	181	850	7	4.7	4.6	N/A
Dreamius Smith	RB	5'11, 216	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	103	494	5	4.8	8.6	30.1%
Wendell Smallwood	RB	5'11, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	39	221	1	5.7	5.3	41.0%
Clint Trickett	QB	6'2, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	20	62	1	3.1	2.3	50.0%
Mario Alford	WR-X	5'8, 178	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	5	47	0	9.4	10.4	60.0%
Paul Millard	QB	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	0	0	0.0	N/A	0.0%
Dustin Garrison	RB	5'8, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	4	19	0	4.8	6.5	25.0%
Vernon Davis	WR	5'10, 172	So.	3 stars (5.6)	4	35	0	8.8	4.7	75.0%
Rushel Shell (Pitt 2012)	RB	6'0, 218	So.	4 stars (6.0)	141	641	4	4.5	4.4	N/A
Donte Thomas-Williams	RB	6'0, 221	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Kevin White	WR-Z	6'3, 209	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	81	35	507	43.2%	18.5%	50.0%	6.3	-22	6.6	62.8
Daikiel Shorts	IR-H	6'1, 196	So.	3 stars (5.5)	72	45	495	62.5%	16.4%	52.2%	6.9	-58	6.0	61.3
Charles Sims	RB				55	45	401	81.8%	12.5%	54.0%	7.3	-85	7.2	49.7
Mario Alford	WR-X	5'8, 178	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	51	27	552	52.9%	11.6%	46.8%	10.8	189	11.6	68.4
Ronald Carswell	WR-X				42	20	413	47.6%	9.6%	52.9%	9.8	128	10.7	51.2
Jordan Thompson	IR-Y	5'8, 168	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	37	22	175	59.5%	8.4%	57.1%	4.7	-103	4.5	21.7
Ivan McCartney	WR-X				24	12	160	50.0%	5.5%	56.5%	6.7	-6	6.9	19.8
Cody Clay	IR-H	6'4, 251	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	19	9	73	47.4%	4.3%	23.5%	3.8	-56	4.9	9.0
KJ Myers	WR-Z	6'2, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	18	11	111	61.1%	4.1%	46.2%	6.2	-26	6.5	13.8
Wendell Smallwood	RB	5'11, 200	So.	3 stars (5.7)	15	11	132	73.3%	3.4%	53.3%	8.8	7	8.6	16.4
Vernon Davis	IR-Y	5'10, 172	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	5	33	41.7%	2.7%	50.0%	2.8	-44	3.4	4.1
Devonte Mathis	WR-X	6'1, 212	So.	3 stars (5.7)	9	7	82	77.8%	2.1%	100.0%	9.1	5	5.8	10.2
Dreamius Smith	RB	5'11, 216	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	4	2	11	50.0%	0.9%	100.0%	2.8	-17	2.0	1.4
Shelton Gibson	WR	6'1, 188	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)
Jacky Marcellus	WR	5'8, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Ricky Rogers	WR-Z	6'1, 197	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Lamar Parker	WR	5'9, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	86.9	2.39	3.28	34.9%	63.3%	22.1%	104.0	3.6%	6.8%
Rank	113	121	61	107	94	108	63	37	66

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Pat Eger	C				28
Quinton Spain	LG	6'5, 332	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	26
Curtis Feigt	RT				18
Mark Glowinski	RG	6'5, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12
Nick Kindler	LT				9
Marquis Lucas	RT	6'4, 310	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	4
Tyler Orlosky	C	6'4, 303	So.	3 stars (5.7)	3
Michael Calicchio	LT	6'9, 319	Sr.	NR	0
Russell Haughton-James	LG	6'6, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Stone Underwood	RG	6'4, 293	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Adam Pankey	LT	6'6, 304	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Tony Matteo	C	6'5, 301	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Marcell Lazard	RT	6'6, 314	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Tyler Tezeno	LG	6'3, 319	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Grant Lingafelter	LT	6'5, 298	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Justin Scott	OL	6'6, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Sylvester Townes	OL	6'6, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. Dire up front

Here's what I said about the line in last year's preview:

WVU's offensive line was terribly hit-or-miss in 2012, opening up holes for Buie, Austin, etc., but also allowing defenders into the backfield with frequency. And while the line's sack rates were pretty good, well, they better be good when you're throwing one-third of your passes behind the line of scrimmage.

And now it must replace three starters who combined for 126 career starts. There is some experience here, but the depth is questionable at best. And the last thing you need when you've got a green passing game is a line with holes.

It went about as poorly as feared. Combined with inexperience at quarterback and inconsistency at the skill positions, the line neither kept defenders out of the backfield nor opened up consistent holes for the runners. Improvement elsewhere will help the line, and the combination of strong interior line play (guards Quinton Spain and Mark Glowinski have combined for 38 career starts) and Rushel Shell could make for better between-the-tackles rushing. But there's almost nowhere to go but up here.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	110	IsoPPP+	91.6	105
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.7%	45	Succ. Rt. +	98.0	62
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.9	93	Off. FP+	97.5	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	80	Redzone S&P+	96.7	71
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.7		ACTUAL	28.0	+3.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	102	86	62	97
RUSHING	91	62	31	104
PASSING	108	102	105	83
Standard Downs		58	48	92
Passing Downs		110	98	99

Q1 Rk	91	1st Down Rk	75
Q2 Rk	81	2nd Down Rk	74
Q3 Rk	68	3rd Down Rk	111
Q4 Rk	108

6. Wanted: depth

The defense really was getting somewhere in 2013. It didn't get there, mind you, but with the combination of Tony Gibson and Tom Bradley pulling the strings, we could see more sustainable improvement in 2014. At least, we will if injuries don't wreck the show again. That means either WVU is the recipient of better injuries luck, or the injury fill-ins fare a lot better.

The 2013 turnaround attempt got off to a bad start with the loss of both linebacker Shaq Petteway (knee) and cornerback Nana Kyeremeh (shoulder) to season-ending August injuries. Both were expected to start, and when other players went down, WVU had to dip pretty far into its reserves.

In 2014, however, Petteway and Kyeremeh return, as do seven of the eight non-line starters. The back eight is loaded with juniors and seniors, as is the defensive end position. There are far fewer depth concerns overall, though nose tackle could be a bit scary.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	106.7	2.43	3.60	35.8%	60.0%	23.0%	72.4	3.4%	3.6%
Rank	40	10	96	31	24	17	105	96	118

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Will Clarke	NT				12	43.0	5.7%	17.0	6.0	0	3	1	0
Kyle Rose	DE	6'4, 298	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	39.0	5.1%	8.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Shaq Rowell	NT				12	34.5	4.6%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dontrill Hyman	DE	6'4, 285	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	13.0	1.7%	3.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Eric Kinsey	DE	6'2, 267	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	11.5	1.5%	3.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Darrien Howard	NT	6'2, 290	So.	4 stars (5.8)	4	5.0	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Noble Nwachukwu	DE	6'2, 275	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	4.5	0.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Trevor Demko	DE				8	3.0	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Christian Brown	NT	6'3, 290	So.	3 stars (5.7)	4	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Davonte James	DE	6'0, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

7. Wanted: pass rush

At 6'7, 273 pounds, Will Clarke made for an oddly sized nose tackle. But the man made plays. He led the Mountaineers in both sacks (6.0) and non-sack tackles for loss (11.0), and with help from end Kyle Rose and linebacker Brandon Golson, he helped to provide an active, disruptive overall presence. Over the first half of the season, this resulted in high-caliber play for the WVU defense overall. But now he and nose Shaq Rowell are both gone.

Rose and Golson are back, as are 10 other WVU defenders who logged at least three tackles for loss last year. But without Clarke, the Mountaineers are missing the heart of a pass rush that needed Clarke desperately a year ago. Even with Clarke, WVU ranked 105th in Adj. Sack Rate. His absence could be huge. The WVU secondary needed more help from the pass rush than it got last year and gave up far too many big plays. Depth is great, but the Mountaineers will still need to replace Clarke's play-making ability.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Nick Kwiatkoski	MIKE	6'2, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	70.0	9.2%	6.5	2.0	3	0	2	0
Jared Barber	MIKE	6'0, 232	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	57.0	7.5%	5.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
Brandon Golson	WILL	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	36.0	4.7%	7.0	4.0	0	2	5	0
Isaiah Bruce	SAM	6'2, 232	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	34.5	4.6%	5.0	0.0	0	0	3	1
Shaq Petteway (2012)	WILL	6'0, 226	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	34.0	4.3%	4.5	1.5	0	3	0	0
Doug Rigg	SAM				8	31.5	4.2%	2.5	1.0	0	3	0	0
K.J. Dillon	SPUR	6'1, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	9	25.5	3.4%	3.0	0.0	0	6	0	0
Tyler Anderson	WILL				12	13.5	1.8%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marvin Gross	SPUR	6'4, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	11.5	1.5%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Wes Tonkery	SAM	6'1, 218	Sr.	2 stars (5.0)	5	7.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Arndt	WILL	5'11, 215	So.	NR	9	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jewone Snow	MIKE	6'2, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	9	4.0	0.5%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Sean Walters	WILL	6'2, 225	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Al-Rasheed Benton	MIKE	6'0, 238	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Isaac McDonald	SAM	6'6, 205	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Hodari Christian	WILL	6'0, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Edward Muldrow	SAM	6'3, 206	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Darwin Cook	BS				11	64.5	8.5%	4	1	4	3	0	0
Karl Joseph	FS	5'10, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	61.5	8.1%	3	0	1	4	1	1
Travis Bell	CB	6'1, 188	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	41.5	5.5%	1	0	1	4	0	0
Daryl Worley	CB	6'1, 198	So.	3 stars (5.6)	11	40.5	5.3%	3	0	1	5	0	0
Ishmael Banks	CB	6'0, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	30.0	4.0%	0	0	2	1	0	0
Jeremy Tyler	FS	5'11, 205	So.	3 stars (5.7)	8	14.5	1.9%	3	0	0	1	1	0
Nana Kyeremeh (2012)	CB	5'11, 188	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13	13.5	1.7%	0	0	0	2	0	1
Terrell Chestnut	CB	5'10, 188	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	10	8.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jarrod Harper	S	6'0, 210	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Ricky Rumph	CB	5'11, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	9	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
William Marable	S				9	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Napoleon	CB	5'10, 185	So.	3 stars (5.5)	10	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Avery Williams	CB				6	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Malik Greaves	S	6'2, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jaylon Myers	CB	6'2, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Keishawn Richardson	CB	5'9, 166	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Dravon Henry	CB	5'11, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Daejuan Funderburk	S	6'1, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. Wanted: big-play prevention

A poor pass rush can drag down any secondary, but WVU's was still quite poor in 2013. Opponents completed 61 percent of their passes in 2013 -- neither great nor terrible -- but when WVU got gashed, it got gashed. The Mountaineers allowed 29 passes of 29+ yards, 122nd in the country (ahead of only Cal, Fresno State, and Troy).

And that was WITH both Darwin Cook and Karl Joseph at safety. Cook's gone now, and while his is the only absence, the secondary still bears the burden of proof. Joseph has made 10 tackles for loss, three picks, and 10 break-ups in two years in Morgantown; he could be a legitimate play-maker. But he'll need help from his corners. Kyeremeh's return, along with the fact that returning starter Daryl Worley is no longer a freshman, can't hurt.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Nick O'Toole	6'3, 220	Jr.	73	44.1	5	23	22	61.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Michael Molinari	6'2, 210	Sr.	53	63.2	14	1	26.4%
Nick O'Toole	6'3, 220	Jr.	6	59.8	3	0	50.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Josh Lambert	5'11, 212	So.	35-36	11-12	91.7%	6-11	54.5%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Wendell Smallwood	KR	5'11, 200	So.	30	18.0	0
Mario Alford	KR	5'8, 178	Sr.	11	20.8	0
Jordan Thompson	PR	5'8, 168	Jr.	10	1.8	0
Ronald Carswell	PR			6	7.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	49
Field Goal Efficiency	36
Punt Return Efficiency	110
Kick Return Efficiency	93
Punt Efficiency	13
Kickoff Efficiency	22
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	68

9. WVU attempted 23 field goals

Need a clear sign that Holgorsen lost his mojo? WVU attempted 23 field goals last year; only 25 teams attempted more. Holgorsen made a name for himself with his ruthless, Red Bull-powered scheme, one that mixed pace with the ability to use every inch of the field.

Jet sweeps, touch passes, deep balls ... the Holgorsen offense was able to do just about everything. In 2013, the Holgorsen offense had to settle for 23 field goals.

Josh Lambert did make most of those field goals, at least the ones under 40 yards. Plus, Nick O'Toole (punting) and Michael Molinari (kickoffs) were lovely field position weapons. Special teams was a relative strength overall, but the loss of Tavon Austin was further felt in the return game, which produced next to nothing.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	vs. Alabama	2
6-Sep	Towson	NR
13-Sep	at Maryland	51
20-Sep	Oklahoma	17
4-Oct	Kansas	104
11-Oct	at Texas Tech	46
18-Oct	Baylor	14
25-Oct	at Oklahoma State	18
1-Nov	TCU	31
8-Nov	at Texas	38
20-Nov	Kansas State	41
29-Nov	at Iowa State	80

Five-Year F/+ Rk	8.4% (35)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	29
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-4 / -6.1
TO Luck/Game	+0.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (7, 7)

10. Not the schedule for a turnaround

In theory, you can talk yourself into WVU improving a decent amount in 2014.

Since, again, the Mountaineers have only actually improved once since 2007, that's a good thing. Not as good: the schedule might not be conducive to much improvement in the win column.

An improved WVU team could finish 1-2 in non-conference play with a neutral-field battle against Alabama and a road trip against a healthy Maryland squad; then conference play begins with a visit from Oklahoma. And by the end of October, WVU will have visited Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and welcomed Baylor to Morgantown. If WVU improves from 76th in the F/+ rankings to 50th, the Mountaineers could still be 2-6 heading into November. And by that point, the Holgorsen-on-the-hot-seat buzz will have very much taken over the narrative.

Oliver Luck is regarded as a strong athletic director, but his Holgorsen gambit -- hiring Holgorsen as Bill Stewart's coach-in-waiting, then promoting him earlier than expected when Stewart rebelled (more or less) and resigned -- hasn't produced the results it was supposed to produce. I think Holgorsen is making the right moves in attempting a turnaround, but he probably won't make any serious headway in that regard until 2015; we'll see if it's too late by then.