The big 2014 Colorado football guide: What's better than one step forward? Two!

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Colorado improved

There are no shortcuts when you fall as far as Colorado fell.

Over the course of almost a decade, Colorado had slowly, methodically torn down the "past success predicts future success" idea that I have turned into a cliché over the years. The 1990 national title didn't stop the Buffs from going 2-10 in 2006. Three top-10 finishes in a row (1994-96) didn't prevent the Dan Hawkins era from falling apart with a 13-23 record from 2008-10. Colorado's Heisman and Big 12 North titles didn't keep the Buffs from making an awful hire in 2011.

Former Buffs tight end Jon Embree held the head coaching job in Boulder for just two years, but he managed to speed up Colorado's collapse in that time. Already teetering in the 70s, 80s, and 90s in the F/+ rankings, CU fell to 3-10 and 110th in 2011, then to 1-11 and 124th, dead last, in 2012. Dead last! Colorado! As I put it in last year's preview, "Even if you don't truly believe that this was the worst team in FBS -- even if you have to lower yourself to saying things like 'Come on, they weren't worse than New Mexico State; they did beat (3-9) Washington State, after all!' -- you have to admit that the Buffaloes were in the conversation."

The only justification I could come up with for not firing Embree after two years was that CU had fallen too far to make a good replacement hire. But the Buffs assuaged those fears by landing Mike MacIntyre, the engineer of San Jose State's sudden turnaround. And in Year 1 in Boulder, MacIntyre did what he does.

Colorado was not a good team in 2013. You don't need me to tell you that. The Buffs won just four games (two against FCS opponents), ranked 95th in F/+, and got outscored by 154 points on the season. Their only Pac-12 win came against a 1-11 opponent. They got destroyed by almost every good team on the schedule (and in the Pac-12, there are a lot of good teams on the schedule) and played below-average football across the board: 87th in Off. F/+, 88th in Def. F/+, and 97th in Special Teams F/+.

But this represented severe improvement. CU was 119th, 123rd, and 122nd, respectively, in 2012. And going 4-8 is better than going 4-21. Colorado wasn't yet truly competitive, but MacIntyre and the Buffaloes were able to take a large step back toward respectability in 2013, and they were young enough that one can expect another step this year. MacIntyre's SJSU teams went from 1-12 to 5-7 to 10-2 over the course of three seasons; it's going to take longer than that at CU. But Year 1 proved that MacIntyre really could be the man for a job that had become infinitely more challenging than it was a couple of decades ago.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 4-8 | Adj. Record: 4-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 95
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
1-Sep	vs. Colorado State	66	41-27	W	30.5 - 15.0	W
7-Sep	Central Arkansas	N/A	38-24	W	26.7 - 17.9	W
28-Sep	at Oregon State	42	17-44	L	17.2 - 28.5	L
5-Oct	Oregon	5	16-57	L	26.7 - 31.2	L
12-Oct	at Arizona State	13	13-54	L	23.5 - 37.2	L	-1.1
19-Oct	Charleston Southern	N/A	43-10	W	31.2 - 25.1	W	-2.9
26-Oct	Arizona	25	20-44	L	23.8 - 39.8	L	-7.9
2-Nov	at UCLA	15	23-45	L	26.6 - 36.1	L	-7.5
9-Nov	at Washington	18	7-59	L	21.3 - 38.7	L	-10.1
16-Nov	California	103	41-24	W	25.9 - 26.2	L	-7.4
23-Nov	USC	11	29-47	L	34.4 - 33.7	W	-8.5
30-Nov	at Utah	31	17-24	L	20.7 - 25.6	L	-6.3

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-6.7%	87	-6.2%	88	-1.9%	97
Points Per Game	25.4	87	38.3	115
Adj. Points Per Game	25.7	89	29.6	82

2. Not yet ready for an upset

There are two ways to look at Colorado's 2013 performance. In the opponent-adjusted way, we see that Colorado started and finished the season playing rather average football but briefly fell apart in the middle.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Colorado 25.3, Opponent 23.2 (plus-2.1)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Opponent 35.4, Colorado 25.3 (minus-10.1)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 3 games): Opponent 28.5, Colorado 27.0 (minus-1.5)

This is a semi-familiar path for young teams with new coaches. You play well out of the gates, when nobody has any film on you, then you hit a slump when teams figure out what you're trying to do. Late in the year, as experience grows, you rally a bit, as CU did with a win over Cal, a competitive home loss to USC, and a near-upset at Utah.

But if we look at the quality of the opposition, we get another unique perspective.

• Actual Points Per Game (vs. F/+ top 25): Opponent 51.0, Colorado 18.0 (record: 0-6)
• Actual Points Per Game (vs. others in FBS): Opponent 29.8, Colorado 29.0 (record: 2-2)

MacIntyre was able to assemble mix-and-match pieces from Embree and Hawkins, sprinkle in some freshmen, and turn Colorado into a team capable of competing with mediocre to solid opponents. They played at an above-average level against lesser teams, but against the best of FBS (of which the Buffs played quite a few), the Buffs just weren't there yet.

This also makes sense, of course. MacIntyre didn't unveil an underdog-friendly offensive or defensive system. His approach is not to confuse or derive unique tactical advantages. Unique systems create unique outcomes -- you're more likely to beat good teams, and you're more likely to lose to bad ones -- but Colorado was more of a best-against-worst team.

You can eventually win a lot of games like that as long as your best continues to improve. MacIntyre quickly raised CU's floor; in the coming years, we'll find out about the ceiling.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.15	61	IsoPPP+	96.1	85
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.8%	98	Succ. Rt. +	96.2	74
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	33.3	114	Def. FP+	94.4	111
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	89	Redzone S&P+	86.9	106
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.4		ACTUAL	24	+5.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	88	81	75	92
RUSHING	109	116	107	112
PASSING	47	49	43	47
Standard Downs		76	66	98
Passing Downs		83	94	34

Q1 Rk	60	1st Down Rk	58
Q2 Rk	100	2nd Down Rk	84
Q3 Rk	110	3rd Down Rk	88
Q4 Rk	19

3. Gotta pretend to run

Offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren came to Boulder from San Jose in 2013, and at first glance it appears he was able to more or less install the offense he wanted to. Colorado's general run-pass rates (pass-first) and pace (slow) were nearly identical to SJSU's from 2012, and while that says nothing about the size of the playbook or which runs and passes were called, it gives us the impression that Lindgren didn't have to change much.

That Colorado was able to pass frequently and semi-adequately was impressive, considering the Buffs handed the reins to a freshman quarterback four games into the season.

But they couldn't even pretend to run, and that quite obviously held them back. CU ranked a respectable 49th in Passing S&P+ and a heinous 116th in Rushing S&P+. Christian Powell and Tony Jones provided neither efficiency nor explosiveness, and while then-freshman Michael Adkins II provided solid overall numbers, a lot of them came either against Charleston Southern (13 carries, 137 yards) or in garbage time against Oregon State (7 carries, 52 yards in the fourth quarter). Take those five quarters out of the sample, and his average regresses from 5.2 yards per carry to 4.2.

With Powell, Adkins, and Jones all returning, along with veterans Donta Abron and Malcolm Creer, experience certainly won't be an issue for CU running backs; the line brings decent experience to the table as well (four players with starting experience, 62 career starts). But we didn't learn much about the actual talent levels of these players last year ... or if we did, we didn't learn anything good.

CU may have a pass-first system, but you do still have to be able to run, too.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Sefo Liufau

6'4, 225

So.

3 stars (5.7)

149

251

1779

12

8

59.4%

10

3.8%

6.6

Connor Wood

84

157

1103

8

7

53.5%

10

6.0%

6.1

Jordan Gehrke

6'1, 190

So.

NR

Trent Sessions

6'1, 190

So.

NR

Cade Apsay

6'2, 190

Fr.

3 stars (5.6)

4. Sefo's job to lose

Texas transfer Connor Wood began the season as the Colorado's starting quarterback and played pretty well against Colorado State and Central Arkansas (68 percent completion rate, 13.2 yards per completion, six touchdowns to two picks). But his output regressed significantly when Pac-12 play began. He completed just 25 of 67 passes with four interceptions against Oregon State and Oregon, and after an 0-for-4 start against Arizona State, he was benched in favor of freshman Sefo Liufau.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): 25.3
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 8 games): 25.9

Liufau in no way dominated, but he held his own and improved on Wood's overall numbers. For a true freshman thrown into the fire, you'll take that, especially considering the woeful state of the running game. He averaged more yards per attempt with a higher completion rate, fewer sacks, and fewer interceptions. In CU's two wins under his command (against Charleston Southern and Cal), he was 37-for-56 for 562 yards, four touchdowns, and one pick.

Wood elected to end his football career a year early, which means the job is all Liufau's. And if he stays healthy in his first full year as starter, he should be pretty solid. His run support isn't going to get any worse, and while he loses his best weapon in the receiving corps (second-round draft pick Paul Richardson), almost every other target returns. Nelson Spruce and Tyler McCulloch are decent possession weapons, D.D. Goodson could become an exciting big-play threat if he can raise his catch rate, and there are youngsters galore entering the rotation, including four-star freshman Shay Fields.

Granted, that probably means much better things for 2015 than it does for 2014, but even if CU's pass ratings regress, I don't expect a significant drop.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Christian Powell	RB	6'0, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	147	560	3	3.8	2.6	31.3%
Michael Adkins II	RB	5'10, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	103	535	6	5.2	5.1	38.8%
Tony Jones	RB	5'7, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	73	249	1	3.4	2.6	27.4%
Sefo Liufau	QB	6'4, 225	So.	3 stars (5.7)	30	111	0	3.7	1.5	36.7%
Donta Abron	RB	5'9, 190	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	21	42	0	2.0	1.1	14.3%
Connor Wood	QB				12	79	0	6.6	3.0	66.7%
D.D. Goodson	WR	5'6, 175	Sr.	NR	4	42	0	10.5	13.0	50.0%
Malcolm Creer	RB	5'10, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Terrence Crowder	RB	5'10, 225	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Phillip Lindsay	RB	5'8, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Paul Richardson	WR-Z				139	83	1343	59.7%	36.0%	67.0%	9.7	298	9.6	197.8
Nelson Spruce	WR-Z	6'1, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	92	55	650	59.8%	23.8%	53.2%	7.1	-42	6.9	95.8
D.D. Goodson	WR-H	5'6, 175	Sr.	NR	46	22	306	47.8%	11.9%	43.6%	6.7	-7	5.9	45.1
Tyler McCulloch	WR-X	6'5, 215	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	20	14	138	70.0%	5.2%	45.5%	6.9	-25	6.3	20.3
Tony Jones	RB	5'7, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	17	13	93	76.5%	4.4%	46.7%	5.5	-52	5.5	13.7
Michael Adkins II	RB	5'10, 195	So.	2 stars (5.4)	15	11	127	73.3%	3.9%	37.5%	8.5	2	6.5	18.7
Scott Fernandez	TE				14	9	97	64.3%	3.6%	54.5%	6.9	-12	7.0	14.3
Devin Ross	WR-H	5'9, 175	So.	3 stars (5.7)	13	6	24	46.2%	3.4%	100.0%	1.8	-63	1.0	3.5
Christian Powell	RB	6'0, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	8	71	72.7%	2.8%	55.6%	6.5	-20	7.9	10.5
Kyle Slavin	TE	6'4, 240	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	9	68	81.8%	2.8%	40.0%	6.2	-29	5.7	10.0
Keenan Canty	WR-Z	5'9, 165	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	6	3	33	50.0%	1.6%	100.0%	5.5	-9	2.2	4.9
Bryce Bobo	WR-X	6'2, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Elijah Dunston	WR-X	6'0, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Lee Walker	WR-Z	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Joseph Hall	WR-H	5'9, 165	Fr.	NR
Shay Fields	WR	5'11, 165	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jay MacIntyre	ATH	5'10, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Dylan Keeney	TE	6'6, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.8	2.6	3.3	33.4%	60.0%	17.5%	132.1	4.0%	4.8%
Rank	92	113	58	116	102	40	34	46	39

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Gus Handler	C				29
Daniel Munyer	RG	6'2, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	28
Jack Harris	LT				26
Stephane Nembot	RT	6'7, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	20
Kaiwi Crabb	LG	6'3, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13
Brad Cotner	RG	6'3, 270	Jr.	NR	1
Marc Mustoe	LT	6'7, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Alex Kelley	C	6'2, 305	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Jeromy Irwin	LT	6'5, 295	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Colin Sutton	RG	6'4, 290	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Sam Kronshage	LT	6'5, 285	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jonathan Huckins	LG	6'3, 305	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Gerrad Kough	LG	6'4, 300	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Sully Wiefels	OL	6'3, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Isaac Miller	OL	6'7, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
John Lisella II	RT	6'4, 265	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

5. The makings of a good line

You can drive yourself crazy attempting to divvy credit between the line and the rest of the offense, even with the line stats listed above.

But using those stats, you can paint the picture of a line that did its job well when it comes to keeping defenders out of the backfield (40th in Stuff Rate, 34th in Adj. Sack Rate) but got no help whatsoever from its less-than-explosive running backs (116th in Opportunity Rate). In my opportunities to watch CU last year, I came away unimpressed with the backs, and the stats certainly backed that up, so I'm inclined to divvy as much credit as possible to the Colorado line.

The loss of center Gus Handler and tackle Jack Harris could hurt; both were two-year starters. But with two other two-year starters returning, along with guard Kaiwi Crabb and a boatload of newcomers (including three three-star redshirt freshmen and JUCO transfer Sully Wiefels), I'm pretty optimistic that this line will be able to do favors for its quarterbacks and running backs. We'll just have to see if those backs can take advantage.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	109	IsoPPP+	95.7	90
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.6%	82	Succ. Rt. +	98.3	60
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.7	95	Off. FP+	99.5	68
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	101	Redzone S&P+	107.8	33
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.9		ACTUAL	21.0	+0.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	108	78	60	73
RUSHING	102	80	69	77
PASSING	104	70	52	66
Standard Downs		77	61	94
Passing Downs		80	74	73

Q1 Rk	75	1st Down Rk	73
Q2 Rk	85	2nd Down Rk	70
Q3 Rk	62	3rd Down Rk	55
Q4 Rk	25

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.6	2.91	3.85	42.3%	70.0%	17.2%	56	3.8%	2.5%
Rank	84	58	114	101	83	89	122	81	124

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Chidera Uzo-Diribe	DE				12	37.5	5.1%	10.5	4.0	0	3	5	0
Josh Tupou	DT	6'3, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	29.5	4.0%	3.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Justin Solis	DT	6'1, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	27.5	3.7%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Juda Parker	DE	6'2, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	21.5	2.9%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Samson Kafovalu	DE	6'5, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	7	10.5	1.4%	5.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Nate Bonsu	DT				12	10.0	1.4%	3.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Jimmie Gilbert	DE	6'4, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	8.5	1.2%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
De'Jon Wilson	DE	6'1, 255	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	8.0	1.1%	1.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Kirk Poston	DT				9	8.0	1.1%	3.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Henington	DE	6'2, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Clay Norgard	DT	6'0, 240	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Markeis Reed	DE	6'4, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Derek McCartney	DE	6'3, 240	RSFr.	2 stars (5.2)
Patrick Ewing	DT	6'2, 250	So.	NR
Michael Mathewes	DE	6'5, 250	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Eddy Lopez	DT	6'4, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

6. One Mississippi, two Mississippi...

Colorado had a full "10 Mississippi" defense in 2013. Opposing quarterbacks had all the time in the world to find open receivers, going up against a pass rush that ranked 122nd in Adj. Sack Rate. The Buffs may have had the worst passing-downs pass rush in the country, and in the Pac-12, there were far too many quarterbacks capable of finding open receivers when given the time to do so. (Actually, that goes for both the Pac-12 and FBS as a whole, doesn't it?)

It's hard to imagine the CU pass rush improving too much considering it must now replace its best (least-bad?) pass rusher in Chidera Uzo-Diribe. But there's hope in the simple fact that the tackles are active, Samson Kafovalu has loads of potential (if he's staying up on academics and not destroying brick walls), and the best blitzer, middle linebacker Addison Gillam, is only a sophomore.

As with the running game, the pass rush isn't going to get worse, but there's not guarantee it gets much better.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Addison Gillam	MIKE	6'3, 225	So.	2 stars (5.2)	12	89.0	12.1%	9.5	3.0	1	5	0	0
Derrick Webb	WILL				12	76.5	10.4%	6.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Woodson Greer III	SAM	6'3, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	8	28.5	3.9%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Brady Daigh	MIKE	6'2, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	8	16.0	2.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kenneth Olugbode	WILL	6'0, 210	So.	2 stars (5.3)	5	8.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
K.T. Tu'umalo	WILL	6'2, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	2	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Severson	WILL	5'10, 200	So.	2 stars (5.3)
John Genova	MIKE	5'11, 205	So.	NR
Deayshawn Rippy	SAM	6'2, 215	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Grant Watanabe	LB	5'11, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Rick Gamboa	ILB	6'1, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

7. Gillam is a keeper

As many freshmen do, Addison Gillam erupted early in the 2013 season, then regressed as fatigue and opponent adjustments wore on him. Still, Gillam showed loads of potential, logging six tackles for loss in the first four games of the year, then nabbing another three against Washington and Cal. He was the team's leading tackler and was No. 2 behind Uzo-Diribe in TFLs and sacks. Oh, and he picked off or broke up six passes. This defense needs a higher activity level; it needs another Gillam.

In theory, more weapons could emerge this year, and not just with "Well, a two-star freshman erupted once, so it could happen again" rationale. Four-star sophomore Deayshawn Rippy, who originally signed with Pitt, becomes eligible this fall, and sophomore Kenenth Olugbode was interesting enough to win the starting will spot this spring. If more linebackers can become solid play-makers and Kafovalu can keep his head on straight, this front seven could end up more dangerous against run and pass.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jered Bell	FS	6'1, 200	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	64.5	8.8%	4.5	0	3	5	2	1
Parker Orms	SS				11	60.5	8.2%	2	0	0	0	0	0
Terrel Smith (2012)	SS	5'9, 190	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	59.0	7.7%	0	0	0	3	0	2
Greg Henderson	CB	5'11, 185	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	52.0	7.1%	3	0	4	10	1	1
Chidobe Awuzie	CB	6'0, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	45.5	6.2%	5	1	0	3	2	1
Kenneth Crawley	CB	6'1, 170	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	35.5	4.8%	2	0	2	4	0	0
Tedric Thompson	SS	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	28.5	3.9%	0	0	0	3	0	0
Marques Mosley	FS	6'0, 185	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	13.5	1.8%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jeffrey Hall	CB	5'11, 180	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	9	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	1	0	1
John Walker	CB	5'9, 175	So.	3 stars (5.5)	6	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Richard Yates II	FS	6'2, 190	Jr.	NR	3	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Yuri Wright	CB	6'1, 170	So.	4 stars (5.9)
Tedric Thompson	SS	6'0, 200	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Ryan Moeller	FS	6'0, 205	RSFr.	NR
Gavin Andrews	CB	6'0, 170	So.	NR
Ahkello Witherspoon	CB	6'3, 185	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Donovan Lee	DB	5'8, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Evan White	DB	6'3, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

8. A rock solid secondary

Considering the complete lack of a pass rush, the fact that CU was able to rank 52nd in Passing Success Rate+ says pretty good things about last year's secondary. And considering 10 of last year's top 11 tacklers return from said secondary, along with 2012 starter Terrel Smith, it says good things about 2014 as well.

The corner trio of Greg Henderson, Chidobe Awuzie (a freshman in 2013) and Kenneth Crawley (a former star recruit) combined for 10 tackles for loss, six picks, and 17 break-ups last year despite unruffled quarterbacks throwing passes. Safety Jered Bell is active against both run and pass, and any number of youngsters (safety Tedric Thompson or Ryan Moeller) or newcomers (transfers Gavin Andrews or Akhello Witherspon) could threaten for playing time as well.

This is easily the deepest, most exciting unit on the Colorado defense. If it gets more help from its front seven, it could end up known as one of the Pac-12's best as well.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Darragh O'Neill	6'2, 190	Sr.	66	40.5	4	N/A	22	N/A

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Will Oliver	5'11, 190	Sr.	57	59.3	26	0	45.6%
Darragh O'Neill	6'2, 190	Sr.	3	44.0	0	1	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Will Oliver	5'11, 190	Sr.	30-30	11-12	91.7%	6-12	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Ryan Severson	KR	5'10, 200	So.	36	22.1	0
Devin Ross	KR	5'9, 175	So.	5	21.4	0
Nelson Spruce	PR	6'1, 195	Jr.	10	4.6	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	97
Field Goal Efficiency	33
Punt Return Efficiency	72
Kick Return Efficiency	104
Punt Efficiency	96
Kickoff Efficiency	112
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	116

9. A good place-kicker, and nothing else

Will Oliver was automatic on kicks under 40 yards and was pretty solid at longer ones as well.

There. I just listed Colorado's special teams strengths in 2013. The Buffs' coverage units weren't strong, Darragh O'Neill's punts didn't travel far enough in the thin air, and there was no return threat of which to speak. That everybody returns in 2014 is a good thing because of Oliver, but some new blood in this unit wouldn't be a bad thing.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	vs. Colorado State	79
6-Sep	at Massachusetts	126
13-Sep	Arizona State	21
20-Sep	Hawaii	97
27-Sep	at California	82
4-Oct	Oregon State	43
18-Oct	at USC	9
25-Oct	UCLA	20
1-Nov	Washington	28
8-Nov	at Arizona	36
22-Nov	at Oregon	3
29-Nov	Utah	45

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-17.5% (109)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	68
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-3 / 2.5
TO Luck/Game	-2.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (7, 8)

10. Beat the beatable teams

I liked the Mike MacIntyre hire when it happened, and after a year of evidence, I like it even more. MacIntyre is not a dynamic recruiter, but he's outstanding at developing and identifying talent, and if he can craft a top-40 team at San Jose State, he can do it at Colorado as well.

He isn't going to do it in 2014, mind you, but I like this team to improve a bit this fall after improving quite a bit a year ago. The loss of Paul Richardson and the general lack of known explosiveness at skill positions will prevent the offense from improving much; the defense, on the other hand, could take a lovely step forward because of both experience and an outstanding secondary.

Okay, so Colorado improves from 95th in F/+ to, say, the 70s or 80s. What does that mean for the record? The Pac-12 should be absurdly loaded once again this fall, and Colorado's schedule once again features six teams projected 36th or better. But there are four winnable September games, and two other potentially beatable conference opponents (Oregon State and Utah) come to Boulder.

Even if the Buffs still struggle against the best teams, they could at least build bowl optimism over the first half of the year. Even if they fall short and finish 4-8 (this time with four FBS wins) or 5-7, this year should represent further improvement. And again, when you fall as far as the Buffs did, that's enough for now.

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