The big 2014 Washington State football guide: The full Leach experience

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Fully Leachian

His quarterback is now in his third year in the system. His top eight targets are back. Former Texas Tech assistants and quarterbacks litter the coaching roster, even more than before (hello, Graham Harrell). He's signed three recruiting classes.

There are still quite a few Paul Wulff leftovers, and it takes more than three recruiting classes to set the culture of the program the way you want it. But it's safe to say that, after a couple of years of tweaking and a surge from three wins to six in Year 2, Washington State is getting close to becoming Fully Leachian, for better and occasionally worse.

We saw all of the ups and downs of Mike Leach's coaching style during a downright silly 2013 season. Wazzu ...

• beat USC in L.A., beat Arizona in Tucson, and damn near beat Auburn on the Plains in the season opener.
• scored at least 38 points six times.
• allowed at least 37 points six times (and allowed at least 52 four times in a five-game midseason stretch).
• beat three teams ranked 31st or better in the F/+ rankings.
• lost to No. 42 Oregon State at home and No. 66 Colorado State via last-second drama in the New Mexico Bowl.

Not a lot about Wazzu's 2013 season made sense, but after a decade in the wilderness, Leach brought Wazzu back to a bowl game. He'll have to fight to do the same in 2014 thanks to an increasingly tough Pac-12, but one should probably never bet on a Leach team, good or bad. Just sit back and watch.

2. Keeping up with the Pac-12

In the above chart, Wazzu's 2013 surge is almost overshadowed by the dotted line above it. The average F/+ rating in the Pac-12 in 2013 was plus-16.2 percent, which means the average Pac-12 team was 16.2 percent better than the national average. (SEC: plus-15.4 percent.) Six conference teams ranked among the F/+ top 18, and only two ranked worse than 53rd.

Both Colorado and Washington State underwent stark, noteworthy improvement last fall, but thanks to similar surges from teams like Washington, Arizona State, and UCLA and the sustained elite play of Stanford and Oregon, the Cougars and Buffaloes barely made up ground, going 5-13 in conference play.

The Pac-12 in its current state shows us the power of increased money and strong hires. When your conference has a lot of both, your conference gets stronger. And while Wazzu could very well improve again in 2014, the Cougs play only one team projected worse than 45th after September 13. They'll pretty much have to improve just to stand still at six wins.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 6-7 | Adj. Record: 8-5 | Final F/+ Rk: 53
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	at Auburn	4	24-31	L	27.2 - 21.9	W
7-Sep	at USC	11	10-7	W	15.5 - 10.9	W
14-Sep	Southern Utah	N/A	48-10	W	32.8 - 18.1	W
21-Sep	Idaho	116	42-0	W	34.6 - 13.2	W
28-Sep	vs. Stanford	3	17-55	L	26.5 - 40.6	L	6.4
5-Oct	at California	103	44-22	W	22.6 - 34.8	L	2.9
12-Oct	Oregon State	42	24-52	L	23.3 - 37.3	L	-0.8
19-Oct	at Oregon	5	38-62	L	38.0 - 37.3	W	-3.6
31-Oct	Arizona State	13	21-55	L	22.1 - 35.8	L	-10.7
16-Nov	at Arizona	25	24-17	W	31.2 - 19.8	W	-5.6
23-Nov	Utah	31	49-37	W	42.1 - 31.1	W	-0.9
29-Nov	at Washington	18	17-27	L	24.1 - 23.0	W	2.1
21-Dec	vs. Colorado State	66	45-48	L	27.1 - 30.0	L	1.4

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+1.5%	54	+1.6%	54	+0.6%	53
Points Per Game	31.0	51	32.5	96
Adj. Points Per Game	28.2	69	27.2	61

3. A WTF October

Granted, timing inflated Wazzu's 2013 ratings a bit. The Auburn offense of August 31 was not the Auburn offense of December 7. The USC offense (if that's what you want to call it) of September 7 was not the less shackled version of November. The Cougars held these two teams to 38 total points and 4.6 yards per play, and that probably wouldn't have happened had the schedule order been reversed.

Still, the Wazzu defense of the first four and last three games of the regular season was consistently above average, a unit with no profound strengths but no pronounced weaknesses. And the Wazzu defense of Games 5-9 was as bad as anything produced during the Paul Wulff era.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Wazzu 27.5, Opponent 16.0 (plus-11.5)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Opponent 37.2, Wazzu 26.5 (minus-10.7)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Wazzu 31.1, Opponent 26.0 (plus-5.1)

During that wretched five-game stretch, WSU allowed 604 yards per game, 7.5 yards per play, and 49.2 points per game. Yes, four of the five offenses in that span were explosive and scary. But damn.

There were no specific injuries, no specific changes to personnel. WSU's defense just stunk in October. And then the Cougs held Arizona to 17 points and 4.8 yards per play in a road upset that, when paired with a home win over Utah, made them bowl eligible.

The offense, rather average through most of the season, picked up the pace late in the season, too. If we chalk up September to timing, the big question for 2014 becomes, which was more indicative of Wazzu moving forward: the doldrums of October or the saltiness of November?

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	43	IsoPPP+	97.6	77
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.5%	74	Succ. Rt. +	108.6	32
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.4	80	Def. FP+	97.4	84
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	61	Redzone S&P+	114.9	19
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	30.0		ACTUAL	35	+5.0

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	54	50	32	47
RUSHING	125	51	22	125
PASSING	4	64	37	10
Standard Downs		71	44	114
Passing Downs		22	24	22

Q1 Rk	52	1st Down Rk	73
Q2 Rk	23	2nd Down Rk	64
Q3 Rk	55	3rd Down Rk	21
Q4 Rk	96

4. The Pirate's Navy

It's an efficiency-based offense with minimal big plays, nearly socialist ball distribution, and tremendous red-zone execution. That's a sentence you could write about either Navy or Washington State.

Navy ran the ball 86 percent of the time on standard downs, and Wazzu passed the ball 85 percent of the time on passing downs, and the effect was rather similar. If you're looking for things to love about college football, that's a big one. There are thousands of ways to move a football.

In 2013, 14 Wazzu players had at least 10 intended touches (targets plus carries). Fourteen Navy players had the same. Navy fullbacks averaged about 19 intended touches per game; WSU tailbacks averaged about 23. Navy slotbacks averaged about 18; Wazzu slot receivers averaged about 19.

There were obviously different methods for delivering the ball (WSU running backs were targeted by 131 passes, Navy fullbacks seven), and touches for quarterbacks and wideouts varied dramatically, as one would expect (QB: Navy 23 per game, WSU two; WR: WSU 27, Navy five). But aside from spacing, the pre-snap alignment for these two offenses wasn't drastically different, and each offense strived to peck and poke away at a defense, hoping to turn a short delivery into a long success.

And adjusting for run-pass ratios (since runs are less likely to end in a stopped clock), Navy actually operated at a higher tempo.

College football is neat.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Connor Halliday	6'4, 197	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	449	714	4597	34	22	62.9%	31	4.2%	5.9
Austin Apodaca				21	42	187	2	2	50.0%	1	2.3%	4.2
Luke Falk	6'4, 206	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Peyton Bender	6'1, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Marcus Mason	RB	5'9, 192	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	87	429	2	4.9	3.6	43.7%
Teondray Caldwell	RB	5'9, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	50	271	1	5.4	3.7	48.0%
Jeremiah Laufasa	RB				35	157	7	4.5	2.3	42.9%
Connor Halliday	QB	6'4, 197	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	19	60	0	3.2	2.4	26.3%
Austin Apodaca	QB				6	27	0	4.5	1.8	66.7%
Theron West	RB	5'7, 171	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	4	18	0	4.5	1.3	50.0%
Jamal Morrow	RB	5'8, 187	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Gerard Wicks	RB	5'11, 204	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Calvin Green	RB	5'10, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Gabe Marks	WR-Z	6'0, 179	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	118	74	820	62.7%	16.3%	67.8%	6.9	-88	7.2	89.6
Dom Williams	WR-X	6'2, 188	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	80	40	647	50.0%	11.1%	47.1%	8.1	92	8.3	70.7
River Cracraft	WR-Y	6'0, 197	So.	3 stars (5.5)	74	46	614	62.2%	10.2%	55.4%	8.3	47	7.8	67.1
Kristoff Williams	WR-Y	6'2, 214	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	72	51	490	70.8%	10.0%	65.1%	6.8	-99	7.6	53.5
Marcus Mason	RB	5'9, 192	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	66	52	390	78.8%	9.1%	71.2%	5.9	-182	6.6	42.6
Vince Mayle	WR-X	6'3, 219	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	66	42	539	63.6%	9.1%	69.8%	8.2	27	8.7	58.9
Isiah Myers	WR-Z	6'0, 183	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	63	37	425	58.7%	8.7%	50.0%	6.7	-45	6.8	46.4
Rickey Galvin	WR-H	5'8, 171	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	57	39	311	68.4%	7.9%	57.8%	5.5	-147	6.0	34.0
Bobby Ratliff	WR-H				40	27	243	67.5%	5.5%	64.5%	6.1	-76	6.2	26.6
Teondray Caldwell	RB	5'9, 202	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	33	26	130	78.8%	4.6%	55.6%	3.9	-156	4.3	14.2
Brett Bartolone	WR	5'10, 186	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	18	10	53	55.6%	2.5%	70.6%	2.9	-78	3.1	5.8
Jeremiah Laufasa	RB				13	9	38	69.2%	1.8%	42.9%	2.9	-67	2.2	4.2
Leon Brooks	RB				12	11	24	91.7%	1.7%	100.0%	2.0	-89	0.7	2.6
Theron West	RB	5'7, 171	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	7	3	50	42.9%	1.0%	60.0%	7.1	4	9.6	5.5
John Thompson	WR	5'7, 189	So.	2 stars (5.3)	3	2	6	66.7%	0.4%	100.0%	2.0	-18	1.7	0.7
Drew Loftus	WR-Z	6'2, 197	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Keith Harrington	WR	5'9, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Barry Ware	WR	6'3, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

5. So much experience, so much ball distribution

Connor Halliday probably isn't much of an option quarterback, but he turned into a pretty good air raid signal caller in 2013. He still had his Heroball moments (a problem in 2012), his completion rate was still a bit too low, and his interception and sack rates were still too high. But they all improved dramatically last fall.

Halliday attempted a patently absurd 745 passes (including sacks), and unlike 2012, the job was all his. Barring injury, it should be again*, and he'll have one of the deepest, most experienced skill position units in the country at his disposal. Granted, there aren't actually many stars in this bunch (only three players averaged better than 7.1 yards per target, and none averaged better than 8.3), but there are options. The top two running backs return, as do the top seven receivers. Of the 11 players targeted by at least 14 passes in 2013, 10 are back. This offense will know its collective role far better than its two Leach predecessors.

Of course, there's still room for improvement. Z-receivers Gabe Marks and Isiah Myers combined to average just 11.2 yards per catch 6.9 yards per target, and while the inside receivers (WR-Y and WR-H) combined for a lovely 67 percent catch rate, they barely, if ever, broke any long gains (10.2 yards per catch). Meanwhile, the running backs were some of the least-explosive in the country, averaging 5.0 yards per carry (but almost never gaining more than 10) and 4.7 yards per target. Experience and chemistry go a long way in such a timing-based offense. But big-play ability still dominates, and Wazzu had very little of it last year.

* The backup quarterback situation got cloudier over the weekend, when four-star redshirt freshman Tyler Bruggman, Leach's first big get at WSU, evidently decided to transfer. Last year's second-stringer, Austin Apodaca, also transferred, which means that the top two options appear to be redshirt freshman Luke Falk and incoming freshman Peyton Bender. So uh, don't get hurt, Connor.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.8	3.11	2.96	43.6%	76.9%	16.6%	126.6	3.6%	6.4%
Rank	30	42	92	19	16	23	40	37	57

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
John Fullington	RT				43
Elliot Bosch	C				25
Matt Goetz	RG				22
Gunnar Eklund	LG	6'7, 310	Jr.	NR	20
Joe Dahl	LT	6'4, 307	Jr.	NR	13
Rico Forbes	RT				5
Zach Brevick	C				0
Jacob Seydel	RG	6'6, 298	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Devonte McClain	LT	6'5, 307	Jr.	NR	0
Riley Sorenson	RG	6'4, 315	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Eduardo Middleton	RG	6'5, 319	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Sam Flor	C	6'4, 307	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Cody O'Connell	RG	6'8, 345	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Carlos Freeman	LG	6'3, 315	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Cole Madison	RT	6'5, 294	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
B.J. Salmonson	RT	6'4, 279	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Sean Krepsz	LG	6'5, 324	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

6. Starting over up front

Part of the draw of an air raid-style system is that it takes some pressure off of the offensive line. It's a lot easier to find one good quarterback than it is to find five good linemen. With with wide splits and quick passing, the line doesn't have to do quite as much work as it would in other systems.

That said, line play still matters. Leach inherited a reasonably experienced line in 2012, and it ranked 124th in Adj. Line Yards and 93rd in Adj. Sack Rate. A lack of skill position quality and experience contributed to that, but a lot of it was on the line.

In 2013, the rankings improved to 30th in Adj. Line Yards and 40th in Adj. Sack Rate. Continuity is a good thing; WSU had it last year but very much does not have it in 2014. Four of six players with starting experience are gone, leaving two starters (guard Gunar Eklund and tackle Joe Dahl), 33 career starts, and minimal experience elsewhere.

Halliday will have to be on the same page with his receivers, because he might not have as much time to throw.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.19	84	IsoPPP+	103.1	45
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.5%	91	Succ. Rt. +	100.0	52
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.1	69	Off. FP+	101.5	44
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	67	Redzone S&P+	107.6	35
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.5		ACTUAL	30.0	+6.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	103	51	52	58
RUSHING	86	51	54	36
PASSING	114	65	66	78
Standard Downs		73	60	74
Passing Downs		38	55	9

Q1 Rk	58	1st Down Rk	69
Q2 Rk	53	2nd Down Rk	36
Q3 Rk	44	3rd Down Rk	34
Q4 Rk	41

7. The box-o'-chocolates defense

Washington State allowed 139 rushing yards to USC and 383 to Oregon, 134 to Utah and 282 to Arizona State. The Cougs allowed 153 combined passing yards to Auburn and USC and 506 to California, 181 to Washington and 369 to Colorado State. Good, then horrendous, then solid.

To some degree this makes sense. Defensive coordinator Mike Breske brought a volatile, aggressive 3-4 defense to Pullman in 2012, and he didn't have all the pieces to craft a consistent unit. He dialed back the aggressiveness a bit (WSU fell from 92 tackles for loss in 2012 to 76 in 2013), and it helped in terms of passing-downs success and big-play prevention.

It also helped to improve WSU's overall Def. F/+ ranking from 76th to 54th. But it was still volatile, and with a bit of a rebuild in the secondary, it will likely be so again in 2014.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	102.9	2.99	3.54	40.0%	65.6%	18.7%	79.8	3.2%	6.1%
Rank	50	69	88	74	58	72	101	102	80

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Xavier Cooper	DT	6'4, 298	Jr.	NR	13	42.0	5.3%	13.5	5.0	0	0	2	1
Ioane Gauta	NT				13	36.0	4.5%	8.0	3.0	0	4	1	0
Kalafitoni Pole	NT	6'1, 290	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	21.0	2.6%	4.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Destiny Vaeao	DE	6'4, 288	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	20.0	2.5%	3.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Darryl Paulo	DT	6'2, 272	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	8.0	1.0%	3.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Lyman Faoliu	DE	6'3, 265	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	9	5.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Matthew Bock	DE				11	2.5	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Barber	NT	6'3, 292	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Moritz Christ	NT	6'5, 321	Jr.	NR
Daniel Ekuale	DT	6'3, 271	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Ngalu Tapa	DT	6'3, 275	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Justin Sagote	WILL				13	83.0	10.4%	2.5	0.0	0	2	0	0
Darryl Monroe	MIKE	6'1, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	77.5	9.7%	8.0	2.0	0	3	2	0
Cyrus Coen	SAM	6'0, 211	Sr.	NR	11	49.5	6.2%	6.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Tana Pritchard	WILL	6'3, 228	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	43.0	5.4%	4.5	0.0	0	3	0	0
Kache Palacio	BUCK	6'2, 224	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	36.5	4.6%	6.5	4.0	0	2	2	0
Jared Byers	MIKE				13	21.0	2.6%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Eric Oertel	SAM				9	5.0	0.6%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jeremiah Allison	WILL	6'2, 224	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mitchell Peterson	SAM	6'1, 214	Sr.	NR	8	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ivan McLennan	BUCK	6'4, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Chester Su'a	WILL	6'1, 227	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Paris Taylor	SAM	6'3, 206	So.	NR
Peyton Pelluer	MIKE	6'0, 216	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Greg Hoyd	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Dylan Hanser	MIKE	6'4, 211	Fr.	NR

8. More havoc, please

WSU has indeed improved from 94th to 76th to 54th in Def. F/+ during Breske's tenure, but if the Cougars are going to take another step forward, they will need to once again add to their disruption numbers, and not only because the secondary's going to need a little more help.

Of the nine linemen or linebackers to log at least 3.5 tackles for loss, eight return, including disruptive tackle Xavier Cooper and two strong blitzing linebackers in Cyrus Coen and Kache Palacio. But even with these players, WSU ranked just 101st in Adj. Sack Rate and 72nd in Stuff Rate. They need help.

As with the offense, the level of experience is strong here. Guys like tackle/treestump Toni Pole and middle linebacker Darryl Monroe have been steady contributors for a couple of years now, and again, familiarity and chemistry can make a difference. But if some young playmaker were to emerge, there's some playing time available, especially on passing downs.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Deone Bucannon	SS				13	96.0	12.0%	4.5	0	6	1	3	0
Damante Horton	CB				13	45.5	5.7%	3.5	0	5	3	1	0
Daquawn Brown	CB	5'11, 170	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	43.0	5.4%	2.5	0	2	5	0	0
Taylor Taliulu	FS	5'11, 205	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	11	42.0	5.3%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Casey Locker	FS				13	35.0	4.4%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Nolan Washington	CB				13	32.5	4.1%	0.5	0	1	6	1	1
Anthony Carpenter	CB				11	15.0	1.9%	0	0	1	0	2	0
Isaac Dotson	SS	6'1, 206	So.	3 stars (5.5)	7	8.5	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tracy Clark	CB	5'11, 189	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)
David Bucannon	SS	6'0, 196	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Beau Glover	FS	5'9, 170	So.	NR
Darius Lemora	SS	5'11, 187	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Charleston White	CB	5'10, 175	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Marcellus Pippins	CB	5'10, 162	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

9. Starting over in the secondary

Heading into 2013, Wazzu returned 82 percent of its tackles, 67 percent of its tackles for loss, and 71 percent of its passes defensed from the previous year. The predictable result: across-the-board improvement. Granted, because of the quality of opposing offenses (not to mention the fact that WSU held more leads in 2013), the Cougars ranked 114th in passing yards allowed per game. But they moved from 94th in Passing S&P+ to 65th.

Heading into 2014, the numbers are just a bit different: Wazzu returns 29 percent of last year's tackles, 21 percent of tackles for loss and 25 percent of passes defensed. Sophomore corner Daquawn Brown appears to be a keeper, and safety Taylor Taliulu had a role to play in Wazzu's stellar big-play prevention numbers, but that's it. All-conference safety (and no-conscience hitter) Deone Bucannon is gone, as are corner Damante Horton and last year's top three reserves. Wazzu really only played about eight DBs last year, and five are gone.

Even if Brown is the real deal, this unit will regress, and the front seven will have to make up the difference.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Mike Bowlin			52	39.2	1	13	19	61.5%
Wes Concepcion	6'0, 187	Sr.	12	36.3	1	8	3	91.7%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Mike Bowlin			49	63.2	16	4	32.7%
Andrew Furney			30	63.0	10	0	33.3%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Andrew Furney			49-50	8-9	88.9%	8-11	72.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Rickey Galvin	KR	5'8, 171	Sr.	24	22.4	0
Teondray Caldwell	KR	5'9, 202	Jr.	14	22.4	0
Leon Brooks	PR			21	9.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	53
Field Goal Efficiency	20
Punt Return Efficiency	31
Kick Return Efficiency	103
Punt Efficiency	108
Kickoff Efficiency	16
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	74

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	vs. Rutgers	78
5-Sep	at Nevada	70
13-Sep	Portland State	NR
20-Sep	Oregon	3
27-Sep	at Utah	45
4-Oct	California	82
10-Oct	at Stanford	6
25-Oct	Arizona	36
1-Nov	USC	9
8-Nov	at Oregon State	43
22-Nov	at Arizona State	21
29-Nov	Washington	28

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-16.7% (107)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	60
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-5 / -6.5
TO Luck/Game	+0.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (8, 7)

10. A strong start is a must

Drastic experience at the skill positions, and minimal experience on the offensive line. Well-seasoned play-makers in the defensive front seven, and a nearly total lack thereof in the secondary.

This team is hard to read this year. (That goes for special teams, as well -- some iffy return men return, and a great place-kicker departs.)

Teams tend to regress toward the mean sometimes after a strong step forward, and moving up 45 spots in the F/+ rankings (from 98th to 53rd) certainly signifies quite a step. There's enough experience here to prevent too much of a drop-off, but despite this team getting closer to the Leachian ideal, the offensive line and secondary will probably prevent another positive step.

That makes September success vital. Washington State plays only five teams projected 45th or worse, and all five come up on the first half of the schedule.

If the Cougs beat Rutgers in Seattle and sweep Nevada, Portland State, and Cal, then they'll only need an upset or two to get back to bowl eligibility. But with one early slip-up, Wazzu will need 2013-level silliness to get back to 6-6.

Who wins a division title first: CU in the South or WSU in the North? ("Neither" is not an option. My rules.)

— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) July 11, 2014

It's an interesting time to be in the Pac-12. The upward mobility derived from a good hire is negated when everybody else is making good hires, too. Leach was clearly a good hire, and it didn't take him much time at all to make Washington State interesting and competitive for the first time in a decade.

But the Cougs' future is curious in a division with established Oregon and Stanford programs, a Washington squad that also surged in 2013, and an Oregon State team that has long since staked a claim to the "salty and speedy underdog" rep.

If Wazzu's gains are barely outpacing that of the conference as a whole, how long does it take the Cougs to get to the eight- or nine-win mark? And is that the ceiling?

A second straight minor bowl wouldn't really answer that question, but that's probably the closest we're going to get in 2014.

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