The big 2014 Washington football guide: Proven production plus potential

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Good hires abound

Stanford replaced Walt Harris with Jim Harbaugh, then David Shaw. UCLA replaced Rick Neuheisel with Jim Mora. Washington State replaced Paul Wulff with Mike Leach. Arizona State replaced Dennis Erickson with Todd Graham. Arizona replaced Mike Stoops with Rich Rodriguez. Colorado replaced Jon Embree with Mike MacIntyre. Washington replaced Ty Willingham with Steve Sarkisian. USC replaced Lane Kiffin with Steve Sarkisian, as well.

It's amazing how much better your conference gets when schools replace coaches with better coaches.

The Pac-12 may have been the best, deepest conference in the country last season. Stanford and Oregon have achieved sustained elite (or nearly elite) play in recent years. UCLA, Arizona State, and Washington went from solid to very good. Arizona was only a couple of steps behind. Colorado and Washington State went from awful to respectable, respectively. USC's record belied its advanced stats, Oregon State was solid, and Utah was extremely interesting until an injury to its quarterback.

Basically, everyone but Cal had reason to believe 2013 was a sign of great things to come. And the primary reason for that is cash and good hires. Pac-12 schools seem to be pulling in plenty of the former, and that tends to help a bit with the latter.

With Sarkisian's departure to USC, Washington was forced to dip back into the pool of hires again, and on paper, the Huskies may have just made another upgrade. In eight seasons of coaching a major (in performance, if not in name) program at Boise State, Chris Petersen went 92-13, engineered five top-11 finishes, and won two BCS bowls. Washington has won 92 games in the last 16 years, pulled off five top-11 finishes in the last 30, and won two BCS-grade bowls in the last 23.

In terms of pure accomplishment, it's difficult for anyone in the country to make a better hire than Petersen. But almost nothing is guaranteed. Even the best-looking hires can fail to pan out because of differences in recruiting, or culture, or booster influence, or luck. And while Petersen's record is sparkling, it's not without some question marks.

1. What happened the last two years? Here's what I said in January's "Grading the coaching hires" piece:

Boise State slipped rather drastically in recent years. After ranking first in the F/+ rankings in 2010 (ahead of even national champion Auburn) and fifth in 2011, the Broncos slipped to 21st in 2012 and 45th in 2013. Losing breakthrough talent like Kellen Moore hurt, but perhaps the biggest source of slippage came in the booth, where Petersen was tasked with replacing successful assistant after successful assistant.

It's quite possible that opponents were simply beginning to catch up to Boise State tactically; if that's the case, then this isn't a slam-dunk success. But if the problem was more in continuing to find great assistants or landing diamond-in-the-rough talent, then those will be rectified to a good degree at UW.

Until he proves otherwise, we don't know for sure that Petersen has the same edge that he had from 2006-11. I'm not concerned about this, but he still has to prove it isn't a concern.

2. What happens with recruiting? At Boise State, Petersen had to get creative in locating and landing high-caliber athletes. He did well with it for quite a while, but according to Rivals, in his last five recruiting classes in Boise, he landed one four-star recruit and 11 high-three-stars (those with the 5.7 Rivals Rating).

With his talent development, Petersen obviously doesn't need top-15 recruiting classes to produce top-15 results. But in the rising tide of the Pac-12, he'll probably need to do better than he has of late, both in recruiting and performance. Plus, as we all know, recruiting successes help to keep anxious fans assuaged until real progress begins on the field. (Actually, as a Missouri fan, I can say that fans are never assuaged when recruiting is involved. Disregard that last sentence. No matter how many three-star recruits turn into four-star performers, fans will flip out when you lose a local four-star or when you land a prospect with a small offer sheet. Ignore them.)

Early signs are encouraging. Petersen and his staff secured three four-star commitments late in the 2014 recruiting cycle and has one four-star commitment thus far in the 2015 class. Petersen doesn't need too many of those guys, but he'll probably need a few.

3. What's the baseline here?

Over the last seven seasons in Seattle, Washington has been excellent once, terrible once, and almost perfectly average five times. It took Sarkisian a while to break through, and he left as soon as he had done so, but compared to Pac-12 peers, what should we expect from the Washington program from year to year? How will we know if Petersen is over- or underachieving?

Really, though, these are long-term questions. In the short-term, i.e. 2014, Petersen should be able to do some damage with this roster.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 12-1 | Final F/+ Rk: 18
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Boise State	45	38-6	W	44.9 - 16.9	W
14-Sep	vs. Illinois	71	34-24	W	30.1 - 23.2	W
21-Sep	Idaho State	N/A	56-0	W	35.0 - 13.9	W
28-Sep	Arizona	25	31-13	W	24.0 - 13.4	W
5-Oct	at Stanford	3	28-31	L	35.9 - 17.3	W	17.0
12-Oct	Oregon	5	24-45	L	32.0 - 30.1	W	11.8
19-Oct	at Arizona State	13	24-53	L	16.4 - 32.8	L	7.1
26-Oct	California	103	41-17	W	29.0 - 26.1	W	3.5
9-Nov	Colorado	95	59-7	W	41.1 - 19.3	W	5.8
15-Nov	at UCLA	15	31-41	L	32.9 - 26.7	W	3.3
23-Nov	at Oregon State	42	69-27	W	45.5 - 21.9	W	7.6
29-Nov	Washington State	53	27-17	W	25.7 - 20.1	W	12.0
27-Dec	vs. BYU	30	31-16	W	29.3 - 22.7	W	12.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+12.1%	22	+11.8%	21	+2.4%	19
Points Per Game	37.9	18	22.8	29
Adj. Points Per Game	32.4	39	21.9	19

2. A UCLA-style blip

After a few years of waiting for "seven-win Steve" to break through -- well, to break through again after moving from 0-12 to 7-6 in just two seasons -- Washington fans were quite polarized midway through last season. On one hand, the Huskies' dominance of Boise State and Arizona was proof that they were a tremendous football team. On the other, losses to Stanford and Oregon proved that they weren't as good as they needed to be to get back to the BCS, and a hungover blowout loss at Arizona State hinted at a potential season collapse.

This was a pretty mature, talented Washington squad, however. After easing past a bad California team the week following the ASU game, the Huskies found fourth gear again.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Washington 34.0, Opponent 16.9 (plus-17.1)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): Opponent 29.7, Washington 25.8 (minus-3.9)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): Washington 34.9, Opponent 22.1 (plus-12.8)

Like UCLA, a mid-season blip tamped down the ratings for an otherwise fantastic team. And like UCLA, Washington wasn't ready to clear the rather tall Oregon-Stanford hurdle.

But unlike UCLA, Washington shares a division with Oregon and Stanford. For now, that's advantage: UCLA.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.15	64	IsoPPP+	101.1	54
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.3%	39	Succ. Rt. +	108.9	31
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.9	27	Def. FP+	104.4	15
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.8	18	Redzone S&P+	117.4	16
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	15.2		ACTUAL	16	+0.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	13	39	31	25
RUSHING	15	34	33	24
PASSING	36	38	30	43
Standard Downs		60	46	77
Passing Downs		16	12	33

Q1 Rk	42	1st Down Rk	70
Q2 Rk	71	2nd Down Rk	25
Q3 Rk	2	3rd Down Rk	7
Q4 Rk	71

3. Bringing the Boise way (whatever that means) to Seattle

When Kellen Moore was passing for millions of yards at Boise State, we always used the Broncos as an example of Moneyballing, of underdog tactics, in college football. But unlike the air raid or the flexbone option, Boise's underdog tactics weren't specific to a given style of football. There were no obvious, identifying characteristics.

At its best, what Boise State did under Petersen was identify potential talent advantages, move defenders around the field (using motion or varied formations), create numbers and talent advantages, and keep doing it until opponents adjusted. If that meant passing for 3500+ yards, as Moore did in all four seasons of his career, that was fine. If that meant a run-pass balance with shorter passing and more power running, c'est la vie. At their best, the Broncos were constantly a step ahead of defenses, preparing for the defensive adjustment, then countering it immediately.

Last season, Boise State was at its best when running back Jay Ajayi was pounding into the middle of the defense (often with a huge run-up to the line) and quarterbacks Grant Hedrick and Joe Southwick were slinging quick passes to the perimeter. Boise State wasn't as effective in the last couple of seasons when the talent level dropped, but the intentions remained the same.

In 2014, Petersen and offensive coordinator Jonathan Smith (his QBs coach at BSU the last two seasons) should be able to find some talent advantages to milk, especially in the running game. Washington has an Ajayi-style efficiency back in sophomore Dwayne Washington (one with solid speed to boot) and some potential speedsters in seniors Jesse Callier and Deontae Cooper. (Plus, apparently all-world defender Shaq Thompson pulled a Myles Jack and spent some time in the backfield this spring as well. Be afraid.) They'll be running behind a vastly experienced line to boot.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Keith Price

233

352

2966

21

6

66.2%

27

7.1%

7.4

Cyler Miles

6'4, 217

So.

4 stars (6.0)

37

61

418

4

2

60.7%

2

3.2%

6.3

Jeff Lindquist

6'3, 240

So.

4 stars (5.8)

Troy Wililams

6'2, 199

RSFr.

4 stars (6.0)

K.J. Carta-Samuels

6'2, 225

Fr.

4 stars (5.8)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Bishop Sankey	RB				327	1866	20	5.7	5.4	42.2%
Keith Price	QB				55	286	5	5.2	3.7	43.6%
Jesse Callier	RB	5'10, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	48	213	3	4.4	5.7	29.2%
Dwayne Washington	RB	6'2, 221	So.	3 stars (5.5)	47	332	4	7.1	7.4	48.9%
Deontae Cooper	RB	6'0, 201	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	43	270	3	6.3	10.7	30.2%
Cyler Miles	QB	6'4, 217	So.	4 stars (6.0)	21	218	0	10.4	12.2	52.4%
Ryan McDaniel	RB				10	47	0	4.7	2.4	50.0%
John Ross	WR	5'11, 180	So.	3 stars (5.7)	6	37	0	6.2	4.2	50.0%
Jaydon Mickens	WR	5'11, 171	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	5	17	0	3.4	1.3	40.0%
Lavon Coleman	RB	6'0, 215	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Shaq Thompson	LB	6'2, 231	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)
Jomon Dotson	RB	5'11, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jaydon Mickens	SLOT	5'11, 171	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	82	65	688	79.3%	21.2%	64.7%	8.4	-24	8.4	89.6
Kevin Smith	WR				78	50	765	64.1%	20.2%	56.8%	9.8	158	9.1	99.6
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TE				52	36	450	69.2%	13.4%	69.6%	8.7	29	9.0	58.6
Kasen Williams	WR	6'3, 221	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	48	29	421	60.4%	12.4%	43.2%	8.8	58	9.0	54.8
Bishop Sankey	RB				35	28	304	80.0%	9.0%	55.2%	8.7	-2	9.3	39.6
Damore'ea Stringfellow	WR				30	20	259	66.7%	7.8%	62.5%	8.6	21	8.8	33.7
John Ross	WR	5'11, 180	So.	3 stars (5.7)	18	16	208	88.9%	4.7%	64.3%	11.6	41	8.7	27.1
Marvin Hall	WR	5'10, 182	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	8	140	57.1%	3.6%	25.0%	10.0	37	23.9	18.2
Joshua Perkins	TE	6'4, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	5	57	45.5%	2.8%	87.5%	5.2	-16	11.1	7.4
Jesse Callier	RB	5'10, 202	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	10	9	53	90.0%	2.6%	44.4%	5.3	-40	4.9	6.9
DiAndre Campbell	WR	6'2, 199	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	8	3	34	37.5%	2.1%	100.0%	4.3	-15	4.2	4.4
Michael Hartvigson	TE	6'6, 255	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)
Darrell Daniels	TE	6'4, 241	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Kendyl Taylor	WR	5'10, 203	So.	3 stars (5.7)
David Ajamu	TE	6'5, 244	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Neel Salukhe	WR	5'11, 162	RSFr.	NR
Dante Pettis	WR	6'1, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Brayden Lenius	WR	6'5, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

4. Upside? Check. Experience? Well...

Kasen Williams has been one of the nation's better possession receivers throughout his career, and in Jaydon Mickens, Washington has an interesting potential run-and-catch threat. Sophomore John Ross was rather thrilling in a small sample last year, and former four-star tight end Darrell Daniels will attempt to break into the rotation this fall in Washington's attempt to replace Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

You can talk yourself into quite a few of Washington's potential receiving options, but this is a potential-versus-production unit. Williams and Mickens have proven themselves, but that's about it. Mickens, Ross, and senior DiAndre Campbell finished the spring atop the depth chart (Williams was still recovering from last season's broken leg), with junior Josh Perkins the top tight end. This could be a pretty fluid two-deep while the options get figured out.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	111.5	2.76	4.5	41.9%	77.4%	17.4%	82.4	4.3%	9.1%
Rank	23	89	2	37	13	39	91	58	99

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Micah Hatchie	LT	6'5, 301	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	26
Colin Tanigawa	RG	6'3, 279	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	26
Dexter Charles	LG	6'5, 278	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	21
Ben Riva	RT	6'7, 313	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	21
Erik Kohler	LG				21
Mike Criste	C	6'6, 318	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	20
James Atoe	RG	6'7, 375	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	7
Shane Brostek	RG	6'4, 287	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	3
Siosifa Tufunga	LG	6'3, 321	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Ross Dolbec	RT	6'5, 304	Jr.	NR	0
Jake Eldrenkamp	LT	6'5, 287	So.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Michael Kneip	LG	6'5, 283	So.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Dane Crane	C	6'3, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Coleman Shelton	LT	6'4, 276	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Andrew Kirkland	RT	6'4, 302	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)

5. The best asset a young QB can have

The quarterback position appears potentially unsettled -- sophomore Cyler Miles, the presumptive starter, was suspended this spring and missed some prime development time -- but whoever lines up behind center will be a former four-star signee, and Petersen and Smith should have no problem leaning on the run if they need to.

Not only do they have a handful of potentially strong running backs, but they have a line that ranked 23rd in Adj. Line Yards last season and returns seven players with starting experience (124 career starts) and all five of last year's primary starters. Plus, with Micah Hatchie and Dexter Charles both out with injuries this spring, some backups got some development time as well.

Pass protection was a bit of an issue last season, but some of that was on quarterback Keith Price, who sometimes held onto the ball too long in attempt to make a play. Miles had a quicker delivery (in a small sample) and a lower sack rate.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.05	18	IsoPPP+	115.4	7
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.9%	38	Succ. Rt. +	112.9	21
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.6	59	Off. FP+	100.5	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	26	Redzone S&P+	129.8	5
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	24.6		ACTUAL	23.0	-1.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	56	12	21	14
RUSHING	61	39	49	46
PASSING	61	6	5	7
Standard Downs		26	36	12
Passing Downs		4	5	15

Q1 Rk	3	1st Down Rk	38
Q2 Rk	18	2nd Down Rk	13
Q3 Rk	46	3rd Down Rk	6
Q4 Rk	27

6. Passive against the run, vicious against the pass

Washington's recruiting in the front seven improved in recent years, but that had not yet translated to stellar run defense. The Huskies ranked 39th in Rushing S&P+ and 66th in Adj. Line yards, but if they were able to force you to pass, bad things were about to happen to you. End Hau'oli Kikaha was one of the best pure pass-rushing ends in the country, which meant that UW didn't have to blitz much to get pressure.

Linebackers defensed 16 passes, and an active, experienced secondary did even more damage. This was a tough, super-fast defense, and only a couple of offenses had any major success. Oregon and Arizona State averaged 7.0 yards per play; everybody else averaged 4.6.

An experienced line will probably need to do the secondary a few more favors this fall. Whereas seven of the top nine tacklers on the line return (including Kikaha), along with four of six at linebacker, the secondary's been stripped rather bare.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	98.5	3.35	3.02	41.6%	68.6%	14.8%	129.6	5.0%	11.0%
Rank	66	111	34	91	74	114	16	50	5

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Hau'oli Kikaha	DE	6'3, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	58.0	7.4%	15.5	13.0	0	3	3	0
Cory Littleton	DE	6'3, 227	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	47.5	6.0%	10.0	5.0	0	2	1	0
Danny Shelton	NT	6'2, 332	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	47.5	6.0%	3.5	2.0	0	3	0	0
Evan Hudson	DT	6'5, 281	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	16.5	2.1%	4.5	4.0	0	1	0	0
Josh Shirley	DE				12	10.5	1.3%	4.0	3.0	0	1	1	0
Connor Cree	DT				12	9.0	1.1%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Taniela Tupou	DT	6'2, 277	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	6.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Joe Mathis	DE	6'2, 248	So.	4 stars (5.8)	12	5.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Farria	DE	6'4, 235	So.	3 stars (5.7)	7	5.5	0.7%	2.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Damion Turpin	DT	6'4, 263	So.	3 stars (5.6)	4	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Andrew Hudson	DE	6'3, 251	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)
Jarett Finau	DE	6'3, 268	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Psalm Wooching	DE	6'3, 230	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Elijah Qualls	NT	6'2, 298	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Kaleb McGary	DL	6'7, 285	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Greg Gaines	DT	6'1, 305	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jaylen Johnson	DE	6'3, 245	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jaimie Bryant	NT	6'4, 309	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Princeton Fuimaono	OLB				13	68.5	8.7%	4.0	1.5	0	0	2	0
Shaq Thompson	OLB	6'2, 231	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	13	64.0	8.1%	4.0	0.5	1	4	0	0
John Timu	ILB	6'1, 244	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	57.5	7.3%	3.5	2.0	2	2	0	0
Travis Feeney	OLB	6'4, 217	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	45.5	5.8%	5.0	2.5	0	6	0	0
Thomas Tutogi	ILB				13	21.5	2.7%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Scott Lawyer	OLB	6'2, 223	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	15.0	1.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jamaal Kearse	OLB				13	10.0	1.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Sean Constantine	OLB	6'2, 221	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Connor O'Brien	OLB	6'3, 229	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Keishawn Bierria	OLB	6'1, 216	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Azeem Victor	ILB	6'3, 243	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. Potential and experience up front

In theory, if the secondary gets weaker, the front seven could pick up the slack. New defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, another Boise import (his defenses ranked first, 11th, and 17th in Def. F/+ from 2010-12 before regressing to 72nd last fall), knows how to max out potential up front, and he certainly has some toys to play with.

First, there are the starters. Kikaha and Shaq Thompson are back. So is monstrous nose Danny Shelton. John Timu was a solid inside linebacker, and Travis Feeney was a fine complement for Thompson at OLB. But Washington was still shaky against the run with this lineup, and it will be interesting to see what tweaks Kwiatkowski makes.

It will also be interesting to see who joins the rotation. Joe Mathis (end), Elijah Qualls (tackle), and Sean Constantine (OLB) are all four-star youngsters on the second string, and in Kaleb McGary, UW boasts a monstrous four-star freshman end as well. This front seven, then, gives you both known quantities and high-upside unknowns. And if the Huskies can crack the top 30 in Rushing S&P+ (possible) and maintain a strong pass rush (probable), that will help the pass defense immensely.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Sean Parker	S				13	56.5	7.2%	3.5	1	4	4	0	0
Marcus Peters	CB	6'0, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	49.5	6.3%	3.5	1	5	9	1	1
Tre Watson	S				13	42.0	5.3%	2.5	0	1	8	1	0
Will Shamburger	S				10	40.0	5.1%	1.5	0	0	1	0	0
Gregory Ducre	CB				13	38.5	4.9%	1.5	0	2	7	1	0
Kevin King	S	6'2, 181	So.	3 stars (5.6)	10	15.5	2.0%	0	0	0	1	0	1
Cleveland Wallace	CB				9	8.0	1.0%	0.5	0	1	1	0	0
Travell Dixon	CB	6'1, 200	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	4	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	1	1	0
Trevor Walker	S	5'11, 187	So.	3 stars (5.6)	6	5.5	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Beaver	S	6'0, 184	So.	4 stars (5.8)	6	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Thomas Vincent	S	6'0, 200	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Brian Clay	CB	6'1, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jermaine Kelly	CB	6'1, 188	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Budda Baker	S	5'10, 180	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)
Darren Gardenhire	CB	6'0, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Naijiel Hale	CB	5'11, 180	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. Questions in the back

First, the good news: ace cornerback Marcus Peters is back. That alone assures that Washington has one known quantity and a guy to scrap with the strong No. 1 receivers of the Pac-12. But the top three safeties and corner Gregory Ducre are gone, meaning that, unlike the front seven, the secondary will have to depend on some high-caliber youngsters sooner than later.

That the youngsters are of high caliber is not in dispute. Sophomore Brandon Beaver and redshirt freshman Jermaine Kelly, each former four-stars, were solid in the spring; both could be full-time starters in 2014. Plus, incoming freshman Budda Baker was the best high school player in the state and probably won't need much acclimation to make a difference.

The ceiling is high in the secondary, but moving from seniors to freshmen and sophomores rarely works out without some growing pains. The pass rush will help, but a passive, rather ineffective secondary hurt Boise State significantly last year, and the same could happen, at least temporarily, to Washington in 2014.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Travis Coons			62	40.4	2	22	23	72.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Travis Coons			57	60.4	8	0	14.0%
Cameron Van Winkle	5'10, 173	So.	34	60.4	11	0	32.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Travis Coons			62-63	9-9	100.0%	6-7	85.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
John Ross	KR	5'11, 180	So.	31	23.2	1
Kevin Smith	KR			5	16.0	0
Marvin Hall	PR	5'10, 182	Jr.	5	9.4	0
Kasen Williams	PR	6'3, 221	Sr.	5	1.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	19
Field Goal Efficiency	9
Punt Return Efficiency	79
Kick Return Efficiency	22
Punt Efficiency	28
Kickoff Efficiency	102
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	76

9. A new set of legs

Losing Travis Coons means losing a great kicker, a strong punter, and a mediocre kickoffs guy all in one. Two of the three could be difficult to replace. John Ross gives the Huskies a good kick returner, and you could do worse than Marvin Hall and Kasen Williams (you could also do better), but Cameron Van Winkle and others have some shoes to fill in the kicking game.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Hawaii	97
6-Sep	Eastern Washington	NR
13-Sep	Illinois	63
20-Sep	Georgia State	128
27-Sep	Stanford	6
11-Oct	at California	82
18-Oct	at Oregon	3
25-Oct	Arizona State	21
1-Nov	at Colorado	99
8-Nov	UCLA	20
15-Nov	at Arizona	36
22-Nov	Oregon State	43
29-Nov	at Washington State	68

Five-Year F/+ Rk	4.2% (48)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	23
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	7 / 9.4
TO Luck/Game	-0.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	13 (6, 7)

10. Another potential mid-season blip

Washington played its two worst games of the season against two of its best opponents, Oregon and Arizona State. If the same thing happens this fall, we could be talking about another mid-season funk, as the Huskies play Stanford, Oregon, and Arizona State in a four-game span, then host UCLA two weeks after ASU.

Then again, there might not be a funk at all. Three of those four opponents come to Seattle, and it only takes a couple of ifs to make Washington one hell of a team in 2014. If Cyler Miles has his head on straight and catches on to Petersen's system quickly, and if the run defense improves with greater experience, Washington won't have any demonstrable weaknesses.

And if the secondary is able to play at a high level despite youth, then UW could be a Pac-12 contender.

Granted, those are three pretty significant ifs, and I doubt all three come to fruition. But Steve Sarkisian left Washington in infinitely better shape than he found it, and Chris Petersen has a lot more exciting pieces than he did in Boise last year. The projections for UW are conservative, but of course they are -- the Huskies have only been truly good once in almost a decade.

It's not hard to see the Huskies achieving above projection, though. And with a good first year or two, it's not hard to see recruiting working out just fine and Petersen enjoying one hell of a tenure at UW. Washington's a big reason why the Pac-12 is so damn strong now, and the Huskies aren't likely to fade too much in the coming years.

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