The big 2014 Oregon State football guide: A steady ship, for better or worse

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1. The answer was "yes"

In 2006, Oregon State went 10-4 and ranked 35th in the F/+ rankings. 2007: 9-4 and 27th. 2008: 9-4 and 30th. There was some variation after that -- 8-5 in 2009 with a No. 20 ranking (0-4 vs. teams with 9+ wins, 8-1 vs. everybody else), 5-7 in 2010 with a No. 46 ranking (0-4 and 5-3, respectively). The schedule was getting more difficult, but 2010 aside (when the schedule featured TCU, Boise State, Oregon, and Stanford teams that combined to go 49-3), the results were pretty consistent.

Then the flatline turned into a rapid heart rate. The Beavers bottomed out in 2011, going 3-9 and ranking 88th. Then they surged to 9-4 and 18th in 2012. Heading into 2013, the question was simple: which one of those seasons was the outlier?

Typically, sudden surges like OSU's 2012 jump are followed by some level of regression toward the mean, and the turnovers luck could certainly factor into that. But Oregon State performed a lot closer to its recent historical levels in 2012 than it had in 2011. Which one was the outlier?

The answer, in the end, was that both seasons had outlier characteristics. The Beavers were unlucky and bad in 2011 and lucky and good in 2012, and in 2013, we basically saw an evening out. They settled back in at 42nd, and while the Pac-12 was too good to reward that ranking with too many wins, they went 7-6 despite defensive injuries and depth issues.

More than a decade after Mike Riley returned to Corvallis -- he coached there in the mid-1990s before taking the San Diego Chargers' head coaching job, then came back in 2003 when replacement Dennis Erickson moved on (as Erickson tends to do) -- Oregon State's spoiler rep remains intact. The Beavers are not deep enough to compete for a division title in today's Pac-12 North, not with Stanford and Oregon establishing heavyweight bona fides and Washington surging quickly. But after attending three bowls in their history before 1999, they've been to 11 in 15 years and six of the last eight.

Riley has figured out ways to get high-caliber athletes on the field without dominant recruiting, and he and his assistants (most of whom stay in Corvallis a while) have crafted a unique offense and defense. They unearth unique talent, shape the system to feature it, and usually win seven to nine games.

With Oregon leaving its Civil War rival in the dust thanks to Nike money and some strong hires, I don't know if Oregon-State-as-spoiler is enough to satisfy OSU fans as a whole. But the Beavers have gone from non-entity to entity over the past 10-15 years, and after a two-year stumble, it appears they've stabilized once again. And in 2014, it should be more of the same: the Beavers will be a threat to win every game they play, and they'll probably win seven or eight of them.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 9-4 | Final F/+ Rk: 42
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Eastern Washington	N/A	46-49	L	44.6 - 50.1	L
7-Sep	Hawaii	82	33-14	W	29.4 - 20.3	W
14-Sep	at Utah	31	51-48	W	36.8 - 43.8	L
21-Sep	at San Diego State	89	34-30	W	28.7 - 20.5	W
28-Sep	Colorado	95	44-17	W	30.8 - 21.6	W	2.8
12-Oct	at Washington State	53	52-24	W	42.3 - 26.2	W	7.1
19-Oct	at California	103	49-17	W	37.0 - 25.5	W	7.6
26-Oct	Stanford	3	12-20	L	22.8 - 21.7	W	9.2
1-Nov	USC	11	14-31	L	34.9 - 37.1	L	7.1
16-Nov	at Arizona State	13	17-30	L	31.9 - 21.2	W	7.4
23-Nov	Washington	18	27-69	L	31.9 - 42.3	L	2.1
29-Nov	at Oregon	5	35-36	L	44.4 - 25.6	W	3.6
24-Dec	vs. Boise State	45	38-23	W	41.8 - 29.7	W	5.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+6.5%	36	+2.3%	50	-0.3%	73
Points Per Game	34.8	29	31.4	91
Adj. Points Per Game	35.2	21	29.7	83

2. Rounding into, and out of, form

The 2013 season served as a microcsm of the last few Oregon State seasons -- down, then up, then settling in.

The Beavers began the year playing horrendous defense; they allowed 625 yards and 49 points to Eastern Washington's high-octane (but still FCS) offense, then allowed 539 and 48 to Utah. They survived the Utes because Utah quarterback Travis Wilson made as many terrible mistakes as he made fantastic plays, but they were clearly missing injured star linebacker Michael Doctor (who missed the entire season), and other pieces weren't settling in.

Then those pieces settled in, and OSU became one hell of a team.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Opponent 38.1, Oregon State 36.9 (minus-1.2)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 5 games): Oregon State 32.3, Opponent 23.1 (plus-10.2)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): Oregon State 37.0, Opponent 31.2 (plus-5.8)

Oregon State pulled off a dramatic late comeback to beat San Diego State, then cruised through some of the Pac-12's lesser squads, beating Colorado, Wazzu, and California by an average score of 48-19. The schedule was about to get infinitely harder, but the Beavers started strong, nearly toppling Stanford.

And then the defense lost ground again. The Beavers allowed 7.5 yards per play to USC, 8.4 to Washington, and 7.2 to Oregon. They still nearly took the Ducks in Eugene -- rivalry games, man -- but in the end, as the schedule got harder (and therefore ensured some losses no matter what), Oregon State got worse.

The season ended with a satisfying thumping of Boise State, and the offense really was impressive down the stretch, even beyond the contributions of Biletnikoff Award winner Brandin Cooks. But the first question for 2014 is whether the defense can rebound. Coordinator Mark Banker had a top-25 unit in 2012, but losses at defensive tackle and cornerback and the surprise loss of Doctor* were just too much to handle. This fall, the back seven returns almost totally intact, but the Beavers have some work to do up front.

Actually, that last sentence goes for both sides of the ball.

* Yes, Banker coaches Doctor. Fun.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	32	IsoPPP+	104.0	40
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.1%	42	Succ. Rt. +	116.6	14
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.5	25	Def. FP+	106.5	8
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	66	Redzone S&P+	110.6	26
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	29.2		ACTUAL	26	-3.2

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	26	20	14	19
RUSHING	118	43	8	95
PASSING	3	22	23	8
Standard Downs		11	7	33
Passing Downs		44	43	48

Q1 Rk	55	1st Down Rk	9
Q2 Rk	28	2nd Down Rk	41
Q3 Rk	11	3rd Down Rk	23
Q4 Rk	4

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Sean Mannion

6'5, 220

Sr.

4 stars (5.8)

400

603

4662

37

15

66.3%

25

4.0%

7.1

Cody Vaz

12

18

176

1

1

66.7%

0

0.0%

9.8

Brent VanderVeen

6'4, 205

So.

3 stars (5.7)

Luke Del Rio

6'3, 210

RSFr.

3 stars (5.7)

Kyle Kempt

6'4, 207

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

Marcus McMaryion II

6'2, 185

Fr.

3 stars (5.7)

3. A lot on Mannion's shoulders

After nine seasons with Riley, offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf left Corvallis to become the quarterbacks coach for the New York Giants. Langsdorf had helped to craft what I last year called (as a compliment) a "little-league offense," as in everybody touches the ball. Langsdorf and Riley (the play-caller) spread the ball around and gave play-makers play-making opportunities.

In 2013, that meant giving 44 carries to receivers Brandin Cooks and Victor Bolden and targeting running backs Storm Woods and Terron Woods with 104 passes. Andy Staples wrote a lovely piece about Nick Saban and the "not Xs and Os, but Jimmies and Joes" principle last week; well, Oregon State's offense was the personification of that. Figure out what your guys can do, then figure out how to get them the ball in ways that allow them to do it.

Since Riley is so involved in the offense, one assumes it might not change that much in Langsdorf's absence. Still, old friend and new coordinator John Garrett (a receiver of Riley's in the early-'90s WLAF) will have an opportunity to put his spin on the Oregon State system.

No matter what, the result will probably be a lot of pressure on the shoulders of senior quarterback Sean Mannion. This was the case last year because OSU was pass-first on standard downs and nearly all-pass on passing downs. It is the case this year because not only does OSU still figure to be pass-first in 2014, but it will be pass-first without Cooks.

The positive spin is that five of Oregon State's top six targets from 2013 return; that includes Woods and Ward, tight ends Connor Hamlett and Caleb Smith, and big wideout Richard Mullaney. But the positive spin ignores that Cooks had nearly as many targets as the No. 2 and 3 targets (Mullaney and Hamlett) combined and had 36 more catches. He was absolutely incredible, both a terror on screen and short passes and, despite his diminutive stature, a player who created easy passing lanes downfield with perfect route running. Mannion was able to lean on him in 2013, but he'll have to find success from a grab bag of options in 2014.

(And without experienced backup Cody Vaz, it goes without saying that if Mannion gets hurt, all bets are off. The Beavers are not without intriguing options, but the experience is nil.)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Storm Woods	RB	6'0, 211	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	127	477	6	3.8	2.0	38.6%
Terron Ward	RB	5'7, 197	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	113	521	5	4.6	4.6	37.2%
Brandin Cooks	WR				32	217	2	6.8	5.5	59.4%
Chris Brown	RB	5'10, 202	So.	3 stars (5.7)	19	144	1	7.6	5.8	57.9%
Victor Bolden	WR	5'9, 172	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	95	1	7.9	5.5	58.3%
Sean Mannion	QB	6'5, 220	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	9	-6	0	-0.7	5.2	11.1%
Tyler Anderson	FB	5'10, 222	Sr.	NR	5	15	0	3.0	1.5	40.0%
Damien Haskins	RB	5'8, 224	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Brandin Cooks	WR-Z				168	128	1730	76.2%	28.2%	62.8%	10.3	301	10.7	228.2
Richard Mullaney	WR-X	6'3, 199	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	89	52	788	58.4%	15.0%	46.8%	8.9	126	9.3	104.0
Connor Hamlett	TE	6'7, 265	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	58	40	364	69.0%	9.7%	51.0%	6.3	-104	6.0	48.0
Storm Woods	RB	6'0, 211	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	58	47	440	81.0%	9.7%	54.2%	7.6	-70	7.5	58.0
Terron Ward	RB	5'7, 197	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	46	34	280	73.9%	7.7%	60.0%	6.1	-105	6.4	36.9
Caleb Smith	TE	6'6, 269	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	39	25	343	64.1%	6.6%	63.6%	8.8	40	9.8	45.3
Kevin Cummings	SLOT				39	25	299	64.1%	6.6%	48.6%	7.7	-4	7.6	39.4
Kellen Clute	TE	6'5, 245	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	27	19	159	70.4%	4.5%	68.0%	5.9	-61	4.9	21.0
Tyler Anderson	FB	5'10, 222	Sr.	NR	17	11	94	64.7%	2.9%	78.6%	5.5	-39	4.3	12.4
Micah Hatfield	WR-X				14	8	130	57.1%	2.4%	50.0%	9.3	27	2.9	17.2
Victor Bolden	WR-Z	5'9, 172	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13	6	62	46.2%	2.2%	66.7%	4.8	-25	2.7	8.2
Malik Gilmore	SLOT	6'3, 210	So.	3 stars (5.7)	11	7	76	63.6%	1.8%	42.9%	6.9	-9	3.5	10.0
Tyler Perry	TE				10	7	58	70.0%	1.7%	100.0%	5.8	-23	3.1	7.7
Obum Gwacham	WR-X				3	1	6	33.3%	0.5%	N/A	2.0	-12	0.0	0.8
Kendall Hill	WR-X	6'1, 204	So.	2 stars (5.3)
Jordan Villamin	WR	6'4, 245	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Hunter Jarmon	SLOT	5'10, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Jacob Wark (California)	TE	6'4, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	3	2	8	66.7%	0.5%	N/A	2.7	-15	N/A	0.9

4. Efficiency, efficiency, efficiency

Thanks almost entirely to Cooks and Mullaney, Oregon State had decent big-play numbers in 2013, ranking 40th in IsoPPP+. Otherwise, the Beavers leaned on efficiency.

Woods and Ward had almost no big-play potential, but they generated four to five yards a decent percentage of the time and produced 6.9 yards per target (subpar for wideouts but acceptable for running backs) out of the backfield.

Chris Brown showed big-play potential as a freshman and, thanks to a Woods injury, saw quite a bit of first-team action this spring. He could change the equation a bit, but with Woods, Ward, and both tight ends back (along with Cal transfer Jacob Wark and emerging junior Kellen Clute), OSU figures to be efficient again in 2014. This means favorable down-and-distance most of the time, but it also means it takes a while to work your way down the field and gives mistakes the opportunity to derail more drives. (And while Mannion's profile is fine, he's not exactly the most mistake-averse quarterback in the world.)

If a new big-play threat were to emerge to complement Mullaney (be it Brown or anybody else), that could make a huge difference.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	96.6	2.65	2.52	41.2%	70.0%	22.4%	138.1	4.0%	4.4%
Rank	83	105	116	43	57	112	30	46	28

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Isaac Seumalo	C	6'4, 297	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	23	2nd All-Pac-12
Michael Philipp	LT				48
Josh Andrews	LG				32
Grant Enger	RG				31
Sean Harlow	LG	6'4, 288	So.	3 stars (5.7)	9
Roman Sapolu	C	6'2, 274	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	4
Josh Mitchell	LG	6'3, 288	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	3
Grant Bays	RG	6'3, 285	So.	3 stars (5.6)	3
Gavin Andrews	RT	6'5, 340	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Justin Addie	LG				0
Dustin Stanton	LT	6'4, 255	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Nolan Hansen	RT	6'6, 290	So.	NR	0
Will Hopkins	LT	6'6, 265	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Fred Lauina	RG	6'4, 305	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Bobby Keenan	LT	6'6, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Kammy Delp	OL	6'3, 295	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

5. Rebuild in the trenches, part 1

Big plays are nice, but the story of 2014 will be written by the lines. That all-conference center (and former blue-chipper) Isaac Seumalo returns for the Beavers in 2014 is a great thing (well, assuming his injured foot is totally healthy by the start of the season). That he's the only returnee with more than nine career starts is a little bit scary.

Granted, even with Michael Philipp, Josh Andrews, and Grant Enger, OSU still didn't produce well up front, so losing them might not be devastating. But again, barring a breakout from an underclassman, OSU's offense will be based on efficiency, on consistently avoiding losses and generating five- to seven-yard gains. If big plays can't bail you out, you're probably putting pressure on the line. And while five different returnees have started at least three games, this is a pretty green front five.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.26	107	IsoPPP+	100.9	55
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.3%	60	Succ. Rt. +	99.5	55
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	32.0	28	Off. FP+	102.5	32
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.9	114	Redzone S&P+	101.8	50
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.2		ACTUAL	29.0	+7.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	101	58	55	57
RUSHING	89	87	81	92
PASSING	87	43	34	19
Standard Downs		78	56	93
Passing Downs		41	60	18

Q1 Rk	61	1st Down Rk	81
Q2 Rk	64	2nd Down Rk	71
Q3 Rk	42	3rd Down Rk	63
Q4 Rk	101

6. Stout against pass, sieve against the run

In 2013, Oregon State was without the services of run-stopper extraordinaire Michael Doctor and had perilous depth at defensive tackle. As one might guess, then, the Beavers plummeted from 27th in Rushing S&P+ to 87th. Aside from the season-opening disaster against EWU, the pass defense mostly held up, and the Beavers were pretty strong on passing downs. But they couldn't really force passing downs.

The results were obvious. The OSU defense frequently failed to get off the field in a timely fashion, and while that didn't have as much of an impact on field position as it could have (especially considering the Beavers' mostly mediocre punt returns), it wore on them. Combined with iffy depth, struggles against the run caused major late-game breakdowns. OSU ranked 42nd in third-quarter S&P+ and 101st in fourth-quarter S&P+.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	94.6	3.12	3.36	41.9%	65.9%	19.6%	97.4	5.3%	6.3%
Rank	84	90	71	96	60	56	64	47	75

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dylan Wynn	DE	6'2, 270	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	48.0	6.5%	5.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Scott Crichton	DE				13	38.0	5.1%	19.0	7.5	0	3	3	1
Mana Rosa	DT				13	32.0	4.3%	3.5	1.0	0	1	1	0
John Braun	DE				8	13.5	1.8%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Devon Kell	DE				13	13.5	1.8%	3.5	3.0	0	1	0	0
Bud Delva	DT	6'3, 294	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	7.5	1.0%	0.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Obum Gwacham	DE	6'5, 231	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	5.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Jaswha James	DE	6'2, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	4.5	0.6%	1.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Siale Hautau	DT	6'1, 350	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	4.0	0.5%	2.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Brandon Bennett-Jackson	DT	6'3, 275	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	9	4.0	0.5%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Lavonte Barnett	DE	6'2, 265	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	2.5	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Grimble (Miami)	DT	6'2, 300	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)
Noke Tago	DT	6'1, 305	So.	NR
Baker Pritchard	DE	6'3, 244	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Titus Failauga	DE	6'3, 233	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Luke Hollingsworth	DE	6'3, 257	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Kalani Vakameilalo	DT	6'3, 300	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. Rebuild in the trenches, part 2

That Oregon State must once again do some rebuilding up front, where three of the top four defensive ends are gone, along with leading tackle Mana Rosa, is not encouraging. But there's reason for hope, and not just from an "it can't get much worse" perspective. Four-star Miami transfer Jalen Grimble joins a reasonably experienced (at least in terms of the number of juniors and seniors) rotation, as does Snow College transfer Luke Hollingsworth. (As mentioned in the Utah preview, I just assume all Snow College transfers are excellent until proven otherwise.)

The loss of star end Scott Crichton is an obvious concern (one OSU is attempting to address, in part, with converted receiver and stud athlete Obum Gwacham), but we'll worry about the pass rush when Oregon State starts creating more pass-rush opportunities.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jabral Johnson	MLB	6'1, 230	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	71.5	9.7%	3.5	1.0	1	2	0	0
Michael Doctor (2012)	WLB	6'0, 227	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	63.5	9.4%	11.0	0.0	1	4	0	1
D.J. Alexander	OLB	6'2, 222	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	9	46.5	6.3%	3.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
Rommel Mageo	MLB	6'2, 237	So.	2 stars (5.2)	13	31.0	4.2%	5.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Caleb Saulo	WLB	6'1, 230	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	26.0	3.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	1
Joel Skotte	MLB	6'2, 240	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	14.5	2.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Darrell Songy	OLB	6'0, 215	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	9.0	1.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Manase Hungalu	WLB	6'0, 245	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jonathan Willis	LB	6'2, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Ricky Liuchan	LB	6'2, 205	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Tyrequek Zimmerman	SS	6'0, 211	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	82.5	11.2%	3	1	0	4	0	0
Ryan Murphy	FS	6'3, 213	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	58.5	7.9%	8	1.5	3	0	1	0
Steven Nelson	CB	5'11, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	55.0	7.5%	0	0	6	8	0	0
Rashaad Reynolds	CB				13	49.5	6.7%	3.5	1	6	4	2	2
Sean Martin	CB				13	40.0	5.4%	4.5	1	2	2	0	0
Cyril Noland-Lewis	FS	6'0, 210	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	15.0	2.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Steven Christian	FS				13	8.5	1.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Larry Scott	CB	5'11, 195	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	7.0	0.9%	0	0	1	0	1	0
Zack Robinson	FS	6'1, 205	So.	3 stars (5.5)	11	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Micah Audiss	SS	6'1, 211	Jr.	NR	13	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Malcolm Marable (2012)	CB	5'7, 172	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Naji Patrick	CB	5'8, 195	Jr.	NR	13	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dashon Hunt	CB	5'8, 182	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Brandon Arnold	SS	5'11, 200	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Charles Okonkwo	CB	6'0, 165	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Justin Strong	SS	5'9, 188	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Demarlon Morris	CB	6'0, 190	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Adam Soesman	S	6'2, 190	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

8. Loads of experience in the back

This could turn into a strength-gets-weaker, weakness-gets-stronger situation for the Oregon State defense in 2014. The return of Doctor and all other linebackers, along with the "can't get worse" nature of the defensive tackles, suggests the Beavers' run defense should improve. But without Crichton and corners Rashaad Reynolds and Sean Martin (combined: 8.0 tackles for loss, 14 passes defensed), the pass defense might decline a bit.

It's not a given, though. The secondary will be led by three seniors, including starting safeties Tyrequek Zimmerman and Ryan Murphy (combined: 11 tackles for loss, seven passes defensed) and aggressive corner Steven Nelson. High-profile redshirt freshmen Dashon Hunt and Brandon Arnold are available, as are senior Malcolm Marable (injured in 2012) and JUCO transfer Demarion Morris. Steady play at safety should provide a security blanket, and there are enough warm bodies with decent résumés at the corner position to assume that one or two take a step forward when asked. It is highly unlikely that the pass defense regresses like the run defense did last fall.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Keith Kostol	6'4, 201	Sr.	52	40.5	5	22	23	86.5%
Tim McMullen			3	41.3	0	0	0	0.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Trevor Romaine	6'0, 196	Sr.	82	61.6	28	1	34.1%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Trevor Romaine	6'0, 196	Sr.	50-52	11-13	84.6%	3-7	42.9%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Victor Bolden	KR	5'9, 172	So.	58	20.7	1
Terron Ward	KR	5'7, 197	Sr.	3	18.7	0
Brandin Cooks	PR			12	6.0	0
Rashaad Reynolds	PR			6	5.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	73
Field Goal Efficiency	72
Punt Return Efficiency	102
Kick Return Efficiency	79
Punt Efficiency	44
Kickoff Efficiency	45
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	106

9. A fair catch machine

Considering inefficient run defense and all-or-nothing (and mostly nothing) tendencies in the return game, it's a wonder that Oregon State fared as well as it did in the field position battle. But the Beavers did cover kicks rather well, and they did have Keith Kostol booting some of the highest punts in the country and minimizing opponents' return opportunities. They could use a little bit more from special teams this year, but Kostol's return is a positive.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Portland State	NR
6-Sep	at Hawaii	97
20-Sep	San Diego State	81
27-Sep	at USC	9
4-Oct	at Colorado	99
16-Oct	Utah	45
25-Oct	at Stanford	6
1-Nov	California	82
8-Nov	Washington State	68
15-Nov	Arizona State	21
22-Nov	at Washington	28
29-Nov	Oregon	3

Five-Year F/+ Rk	7.4% (42)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	44
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	3 / -8.1
TO Luck/Game	+4.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (7, 7)

10. Hit the ground running

As with last year, most of Oregon State's more beatable opponents show up early in the schedule. In the first five games, the Beavers will have played Hawaii, San Diego State, Colorado, and Portland State; granted, they must travel to both Hawaii and Colorado, and both of those teams should take nice steps forward this year. Still, Oregon State should be good enough to be about 5-1 when the road trip to Stanford comes up on October 25. And with Washington State and California visiting in November, bowl eligibility is likely even if there's an EWU-style upset along the way.

So basically, Oregon State is probably going to be a top-45 team and finish with about seven or eight wins in 2014. Just like 2013 and, on average, most of the last few seasons.

There's potential risk for Glen Mason Territory here, especially with the ongoing success of OSU's in-state rival, and especially with the rapidly improving state of the Pac-12 overall. Still, Riley has steadied the ship after a bumpy couple of seasons, and he's been able to build a consistently solid program in Corvallis, where one didn't previously exist.

His Beavers should once again be salty, entertaining, and fast in 2014. That's enough for now, right?

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