The big 2014 Arizona football guide: Speed kills, and the Wildcats have it

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. The world's quietest turnaround

Arizona picked the wrong year to prove itself. The Wildcats improved rather dramatically in 2012, Rich Rodriguez's first year in charge. But with the departure of their starting quarterback, an injury to their No. 1 (by far) receiver, and some rebuilding to do on the offensive line, it was logical to expect a step backwards on offense. And with a lot of tough road games on the schedule, a bit of a step backwards could have been expected.

Things perhaps get a little bit tricky in 2013; while the defense returns nearly everybody of consequence, the offense must replace its quarterback (Matt Scott) and perhaps its stud receiver (Austin Hill, who tore his ACL in the spring). The overall depth should be quite a bit more impressive than what Rodriguez inherited a year ago, but the star power might have dropped a notch or two.

Still, even if Arizona does take a step backwards in 2013 -- a common occurrence following a surge -- Rodriguez found himself ahead of schedule with a great 2012. In a conference where seemingly every program is improving or holding steady, Arizona kept pace last year and could be well-positioned to do so in the future.

Instead, Arizona held steady in the win column (8-5 in 2012, 8-5 in 2013) and improved even further on paper, from 38th in the F/+ rankings to 25th.

The problem, of course: everybody else in the Pac-12 improved, too. A No. 25 ranking would have made you the third-best team in the conference in 2005, the fifth-best in 2008, and the fourth-best in 2011. In 2013, it was good for seventh. The Wildcats had to improve to hold steady, and while they did so, improvement from other teams (including their in-state rivals) prevented them from getting the attention they had earned.

Mike Stoops did a nice job of building a competitive squad in Tucson; Arizona ranked between 21st and 38th each year from 2007-10 but couldn't quite break into the top 20, then lost ground rapidly. An 0-5 finish to 2010 preceded a 1-5 start in 2011, and he was gone. (The Wildcats finished 4-8 and No. 79 that year.) That Rodriguez has so quickly replenished Arizona's confidence and athleticism is remarkable, and in another time, it would be recognized as such. But the conference is full of remarkable hires at the moment, and it will be interesting to see how (and how far) the program continues to move forward in the future.

In 2014, Rodriguez will have a Rodriguez recruit/transfer at quarterback, a well-seasoned offensive line, a dramatic talent upgrade at receiver, and proven playmakers smattered throughout the back eight of the defense. In theory, this could be his best Arizona team yet. But can the Wildcats overcome serious attrition at running back and on the defensive line? And even if they improve for a third straight year, will it matter if everybody else does, too?

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 25
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
30-Aug	Northern Arizona	N/A	35-0	W	34.6 - 19.8	W
7-Sep	at UNLV	96	58-13	W	27.6 - 14.1	W
14-Sep	UTSA	67	38-13	W	41.8 - 23.2	W
28-Sep	at Washington	18	13-31	L	19.5 - 17.6	W
10-Oct	at USC	11	31-38	L	43.1 - 31.8	W	12.0
19-Oct	Utah	31	35-24	W	30.8 - 20.9	W	11.0
26-Oct	at Colorado	95	44-20	W	40.9 - 23.1	W	11.9
2-Nov	at California	103	33-28	W	17.4 - 31.7	L	5.3
9-Nov	UCLA	15	26-31	L	34.8 - 26.9	W	6.5
16-Nov	Washington State	53	17-24	L	21.1 - 28.0	L	2.9
23-Nov	Oregon	5	42-16	W	45.7 - 24.3	W	5.2
30-Nov	at Arizona State	13	21-58	L	27.0 - 30.0	L	1.0
31-Dec	vs. Boston College	65	42-19	W	41.6 - 24.5	W	7.3

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+10.4%	25	+10.4%	27	-2.7%	106
Points Per Game	33.5	36	24.2	39
Adj. Points Per Game	32.8	36	24.3	30

2. The world's weirdest November

Following a frustrating loss to UCLA on November 9, Arizona faced upcoming home games against Washington State and Oregon. That the Wildcats went 1-1 in those games (with a blowout win and a tight loss) was no surprise. The order of the results, however, was rather confusing.

First, Arizona's offense was slowed dramatically by an all-or-nothing Wazzu defense. The Wildcats averaged just 4.8 yards per play against the Cougars, their second-worst average of the season (worst: 3.7 against Washington). They also recovered just one of the game's four fumbles and missed two of three field goal attempts in a 24-17 loss. Granted, the loss did favors to the Pac-12 as a whole -- it helped Wazzu to reach bowl eligibility -- but it was humbling and frustrating.

Naturally, then, Arizona tooks its frustrations out in a blowout win over Oregon. As one does. The Wildcats drove for scores on each of their first three possessions, built a 28-9 halftime lead, and kept going. They were outgained (yards: 506-482 Oregon; yards per play: 6.3-5.5 Oregon), but the early lead and a series of stops (turnover on downs at the Arizona 40, turnover on downs at the Arizona 6, interception at the Arizona 3) made the difference in a stunning 42-16 win.

And then the Wildcats celebrated this mighty breakthrough win with a 37-point road loss to rival Arizona State.

In general, November was a weird month, one that saw the Wildcats' overall form regress, and one that saw them put together their best performance in years right in the middle.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Arizona 34.0, Opponent 21.5 (plus-12.5)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 6 games): Arizona 31.3, Opponent 27.6 (plus-3.7)

Granted, it wasn't the worst time for their form to drop. The Wildcats probably would have lost to ASU anyway, and while their performance against Cal was far from inspiring, they still won. But a thin defense -- good starting 11, but almost no backups in the front six of Jeff Casteel's 3-3-5 -- appeared to wear down a bit and fell from good to average. That's doom in the Pac-12.

The deep parts of the defense appear to get deeper in 2014, but the front six will have to prove its depth. It really didn't last year.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.04	110	IsoPPP+	90.8	109
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.6%	24	Succ. Rt. +	115.2	19
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.3	56	Def. FP+	101.4	41
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	35	Redzone S&P+	105.6	39
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.1		ACTUAL	18	-2.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	31	34	19	46
RUSHING	11	15	10	9
PASSING	99	58	35	104
Standard Downs		25	8	97
Passing Downs		64	63	84

Q1 Rk	37	1st Down Rk	23
Q2 Rk	44	2nd Down Rk	62
Q3 Rk	42	3rd Down Rk	36
Q4 Rk	37

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

B.J. Denker

233

381

2516

16

7

61.2%

17

4.3%

6.1

Javelle Allen

0

1

0

0

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

0.0

Jesse Scroggins

6'3, 208

Sr.

4 stars (5.9)

Connor Brewer

6'2, 196

So.

4 stars (5.8)

Anu Solomon

6'2, 198

RSFr.

4 stars (5.9)

Khari McGee

6'3, 207

RSFr.

3 stars (5.5)

Jerrard Randall

6'1, 179

Jr.

2 stars (5.4)

Brandon Dawkins

6'4, 205

Fr.

3 stars (5.7)

3. The world's first 6-QB formation

When Rodriguez lost Matt Scott to graduation following 2012, he opened up quite a quarterbacks derby. Senior B.J. Denker ended up defeating Louisiana Tech transfer Nick Isham, USC transfer Jesse Scroggins, and youngsters Javelle Allen and Anu Solomon for the job. It was apparently the right choice -- Denker wasn't as strong a passer as Scott, but he was a better runner and served as a tremendous complement for all-world back Ka'Deem Carey. But it assured that Rodriguez would be going through another open competition a year later.

Denker graduated, Allen was dismissed, and Isham transferred a second time when it became clear he wasn't winning the job. But somehow, despite the departure of three of last year's five competitors, the battle royale has even more contestants this time around. Scroggins is still in Tucson, as is Anu Solomon (now a redshirt freshman). Fellow RSFR Khari McGee could be a factor (and could end up playing a few other positions as well), JUCO transfer Jerrard Randall is athletic, and somehow Texas transfer Connor Brewer is just a sophomore. Throw in true freshman Brandon Dawikins, and you've now got a six-way battle for the starting job.

The smart money appears to be on either Scroggins, Brewer, or Solomon. (My guess is Scroggins.) In a Rich Rod offense, though, the starter might not really matter; he's probably going to be pretty successful regardless.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Ka'Deem Carey	RB				350	1889	19	5.4	4.4	40.9%
B.J. Denker	QB				164	1023	13	6.2	5.5	50.0%
Daniel Jenkins	RB				64	410	1	6.4	7.5	39.1%
Jared Baker	RB	5'8, 188	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	27	127	0	4.7	4.6	33.3%
Javelle Allen	QB				8	79	1	9.9	14.5	50.0%
Kylan Butler	RB				5	17	1	3.4	0.5	20.0%
Terris Jones-Grigsby	RB	5'7, 182	Sr.	NR
Zach Green	RB	5'10, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Tyrell Johnson	RB	5'7, 154	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Nick Wilson	RB	5'10, 195	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

4. A plug-and-play run game

There's even smarter money on a running back putting up big numbers, even if we don't really know who the running back will be. Arizona RBs had 446 carries last year, 34.3 per game. Ka'Deem Cary, now a Chicago Bear, had 350 of them, and primary backup Daniel Jenkins had another 64. In all, just 6.1 percent of last year's carries return, all from junior Jared Baker. Baker, senior (and special teams all-star) Terris Jones-Grigsby and three freshmen (including incoming four-star Nick Wilson) could all see carries.

In theory, this level of turnover is scary. But when your head coach has Rodriguez's reputation for offensive proficiency, and when a strong offensive line returns five players with starting experience (104 career stats) and two three-year starting tackles, it's hard to worry too much.

Carey was one of the most efficient backs in the country, and it's fair to assume that Arizona won't have a top-15 Rushing S&P+ ranking this time around. But how far do you really expect it to fall, especially with that line?

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Austin Hill (2012)	SLOT	6'3, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	118	81	1364	68.6%	25.7%	66.9%	11.6	N/A	11.7	167.0
Nate Phillips	SLOT	5'7, 177	So.	2 stars (5.4)	76	51	696	67.1%	21.8%	67.2%	9.2	91	8.5	90.4
Samajie Grant	WR	5'9, 173	So.	3 stars (5.6)	74	47	373	63.5%	21.2%	65.7%	5.0	-200	5.2	48.5
Terrence Miller	WR				56	40	467	71.4%	16.0%	64.6%	8.3	7	8.7	60.7
Ka'Deem Carey	RB				35	26	173	74.3%	10.0%	31.3%	4.9	-121	4.9	22.5
Garic Wharton	WR	5'11, 169	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	32	17	291	53.1%	9.2%	64.3%	9.1	63	8.7	37.8
David Richards	WR	6'4, 214	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	25	15	148	60.0%	7.2%	42.9%	5.9	-40	6.6	19.2
Johnny Jackson	SLOT	5'10, 180	Jr.	NR	18	12	124	66.7%	5.2%	37.5%	6.9	-19	6.5	16.1
Trey Griffey	WR	6'3, 191	So.	3 stars (5.6)	17	14	170	82.4%	4.9%	50.0%	10.0	19	10.0	22.1
Daniel Jenkins	RB				15	10	57	66.7%	4.3%	61.5%	3.8	-62	3.8	7.4
Cayleb Jones	WR	6'3, 204	So.	4 stars (6.0)
DaVonte' Neal	SLOT	5'10, 176	So.	4 stars (5.9)
Josh Kern	TE	6'5, 206	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Cam Denson	WR	6'1, 170	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Trevor Wood	TE	6'6, 240	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

5. The world's most sudden talent upgrade

Predicting the level of success for Arizona's offense in 2014 depends almost entirely on assumptions. Do you assume a step backwards with that much turnover in the backfield? Do you assume a step forward with that much talent and experience on the offensive line? And do you assume that four-star transfers can make at least a minor impact?

When the 2013 season ended, the ceiling for Arizona's receiving corps immediately improved. Austin Hill, 2012's breakout star, was already mostly healed from his knee injury and should be 100 percent on August 29. Last year's two leading receivers, Nate Phillips and Samajie Grant, became sophomores, as did Trey Griffey. And perhaps most importantly (when talking about upside), two four-star sophomore transfers -- Cayleb Jones (Texas) and DaVonte' Neal (Notre Dame) -- became eligible.

For a run-first offense, Arizona now has a potential embarrassment of riches. Jones and Neal have not yet lived up to blue-chip potential, but they probably won't have to. If Hill returns to 2012 form and Phillips finds a new role, Arizona already returns two players who averaged 9+ yards per target their last time on the field. Throw in senior Garic Warton and Griffey, and you've got some exciting options already. If either Jones or Neal is ready to become a quality No. 2 or No. 3 target, the Arizona passing game could be quite successful.

That doesn't seem too much to ask, especially if, again, you assume the running game will be fine.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113.1	3.28	3.7	42.7%	70.0%	13.7%	132.2	1.6%	7.7%
Rank	16	16	26	24	57	7	33	5	75

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Mickey Baucus	LT	6'8, 305	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	38
Fabbians Ebbele	RT	6'8, 311	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	37
Chris Putton	RG				31
Cayman Bundage	LG	6'2, 267	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	14
Steven Gurrola	C	6'2, 291	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13
Lene Maiava	RT	6'5, 280	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)	2
Jacob Arzouman	LT	6'5, 266	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Zach Hemmila	LG	6'3, 305	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0
Carter Wood	C	6'2, 272	Jr.	NR	0
Faitele Faafoi	RG	6'4, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Jacob Alsadek	RG	6'7, 313	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Kaige Lawrence	OL	6'3, 287	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jordan Poland	OL	6'8, 340	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.13	59	IsoPPP+	108.8	24
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	38.6%	27	Succ. Rt. +	109.4	31
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	28.8	94	Off. FP+	100.5	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	27	Redzone S&P+	107.2	36
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.5		ACTUAL	22.0	+3.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	63	28	31	28
RUSHING	70	23	28	43
PASSING	70	37	30	28
Standard Downs		29	31	38
Passing Downs		23	28	11

Q1 Rk	34	1st Down Rk	31
Q2 Rk	13	2nd Down Rk	27
Q3 Rk	29	3rd Down Rk	50
Q4 Rk	59

6. Speed kills

Arizona had no short-yardage push up front and couldn't rush the passer. The Wildcats weren't mainstays in the offensive backfield and couldn't necessarily win the line when they needed to.

They also ranked 27th in Def. F/+.

Coordinator Jeff Casteel really does have the best possible complement to Rodriguez's speedy offense: a speedy defense. The two were separated for four years when Rodriguez left for Michigan and Casteel stayed behind, but they rejoined in Tucson, and the results have been thus far encouraging. (They've been less encouraging for West Virginia, which completely fell apart defensively in 2012 when Casteel left.)

Casteel's 3-3-5 is at its best when the line is making plays, but it needs speed above all else, and that's something Arizona has in abundance. It also has one of the country's most experienced trios of defensive backs. There's at least one proven defender at each level of the defense, and there's speed to burn. Things probably won't improve further until the line improves, but the top 30 isn't the worst place in the world to be.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	104.8	2.74	3.23	35.3%	76.0%	20.8%	72.3	3.3%	5.2%
Rank	44	40	57	28	104	43	106	99	97

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Sione Tuihalamaka	DE				13	40.0	5.2%	11.0	5.0	0	0	1	0
Tevin Hood	NT				13	29.5	3.9%	7.5	1.0	0	0	2	0
Reggie Gilbert	DE	6'4, 261	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	24.5	3.2%	7.0	4.0	0	0	1	0
Justin Washington	DE				12	12.0	1.6%	3.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Dan Pettinato	DE	6'4, 271	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	6.5	0.9%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Kirifi Taula	NT				13	5.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Dwight Melvin	NT	6'1, 272	So.	3 stars (5.7)
Calvin Allen	DE	6'6, 259	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Luca Bruno	DE	6'4, 259	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jack Banda	DE	6'3, 217	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jeff Worthy	NT	6'2, 282	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Jerod Cody	DE	6'7, 277	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Marcus Gfiffin	NT	6'3, 296	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

7. Opening a new box of defensive linemen

In Reggie Gilbert, Arizona does have one proven entity; he's a little small to play end on a three-man line, but he's not exactly 240 pounds. He's a keeper.

The rest of the line returns 6.5 tackles from last year. Both primary tackles, Tevin Hood and Kirifi Taula, are gone. So is Sione Tuihalamaka, the leading play-maker on the line. There are some exciting prospects here -- not least of all, incoming four-star freshman Marcus Griffin -- but they're all either young or smaller than preferred. And the team's two leading tacklers, linebackers Jake Fischer and Marquis Flowers, are also gone.

The line was undersized last year, too, but there was enough experience and speed elsewhere to make sure runners didn't get too far downfield. But with four starters gone from the front six, a lack of depth could become crippling. Last year's backups barely played, and to avoid some pretty significant regression, some unknowns will have to become knowns awfully quickly.

There's hope; sophomore Scooby Wright might have been UA's best play-maker against the run in 2013, and reserves Derrick Turituri and Keoni Bush-Loo managed four sacks in minimal opportunities. But Arizona goes from experienced and thin to inexperienced and thin; that doesn't tend to work out incredibly well.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jake Fischer	MLB				13	79.5	10.4%	3.5	1.0	1	0	0	1
Marquis Flowers	WLB				13	75.0	9.8%	11.5	1.0	1	2	0	1
Scooby Wright	MLB	6'1, 230	So.	2 stars (5.3)	13	64.5	8.5%	9.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Derrick Turituri	SLB	6'1, 252	So.	2 stars (5.4)	13	9.0	1.2%	2.5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Sir Thomas Jackson	LB	6'0, 221	Jr.	NR	12	7.0	0.9%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Hank Hobson	MLB	6'3, 227	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Keoni Bush-Loo	SLB	6'4, 224	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	5.5	0.7%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
DeAndre' Miller	WLB	6'3, 225	So.	3 stars (5.7)	13	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jake Matthews	WLB	6'3, 214	So.	2 stars (5.2)
Antonio Smothers	SLB	6'2, 237	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Marquis Ware	LB	6'2, 210	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jamardre Cobb	LB	6'2, 215	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jared Tevis	BANDIT	5'10, 195	Sr.	NR	11	71.0	9.3%	4	1	1	2	3	0
Jourdon Grandon	FS	6'0, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	63.5	8.3%	0	0	2	6	1	0
Tra'Mayne Bondurant	SPUR	5'10, 198	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	59.0	7.7%	7	2	4	5	1	0
Jonathan McKnight	CB	5'11, 171	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	49.0	6.4%	1	0	2	8	0	0
Shaquille Richardson	CB				13	47.5	6.2%	3	0	3	4	0	0
William Parks	BANDIT	6'1, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	25.5	3.3%	1	0	2	5	0	0
Anthony Lopez	SPUR	5'11, 208	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	11.5	1.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tellas Jones	BANDIT	6'0, 192	So.	NR	12	11.0	1.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Holiday	CB	5'10, 156	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	6.5	0.9%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Shane Wilson	CB				13	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Yamen Sanders	S	6'4, 196	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jamar Allah	FS	6'1, 191	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Blake Brady	S	5'11, 194	Sr.	NR	13	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Richard Morrison	CB				9	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Patrick Glover	CB	6'1, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jarvis McCall	CB	6'2, 194	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Rodney Carr	CB	6'0, 183	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

8. Just give this secondary a little bit of help

Seniors Tra'Mayne Bondurant, Jonathan McKnight, and Jourdon Grandson have each been mainstays for three years (McKnight was a reserve in 2010 before missing 2011 with injury), Jared Tevis for two. This foursome is experienced and talented enough to give the front six some more leeway, even with the departure of corner Shaq Richardson.

Bondurant is especially perfect for this system. He's 5'10, 200 pounds but plays 6'2, 215, charging up to the line of scrimmage to make plays, then dropping back to pick off a pass. In three years, he has logged 22 tackles for loss, thre sacks, seven interceptions, 18 break-ups, and four forced fumbles. He's a wrecking ball.

Arizona returned 11 starters in 2013. When that happens, you're almost guaranteed to return but a few the next year. That convergence of experience is rare and probably means you're playing a lot of seniors. But the secondary still returns four of five primary players, and the backups got a lot more playing time than did those in the front six. The secondary was the strength of the D last year and should be just about as good; the Wildcats' fate, then, could be dictated by how much a younger, equally thin front six gets pushed around.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Drew Riggleman	6'2, 207	Jr.	56	40.1	4	11	18	51.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Jake Smith			83	60.8	37	2	44.6%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Jake Smith			53-55	9-13	69.2%	3-6	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Samajie Grant	KR	5'9, 173	So.	10	19.3	0
Jared Baker	KR	5'8, 188	Jr.	9	23.3	0
Johnny Jackson	PR	5'10, 180	Jr.	13	8.5	0
Nate Phillips	PR	5'7, 177	So.	10	5.5	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	107
Field Goal Efficiency	92
Punt Return Efficiency	113
Kick Return Efficiency	115
Punt Efficiency	71
Kickoff Efficiency	70
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	104

9. A special teams mess

In his last five seasons as a head coach (2008-10, 2012-13), Rich Rodriguez has been in charge of only one decent special teams unit -- his 2009 Michigan unit ranked 44th. At Arizona, his units have ranked 93rd (2012) and 106th (2013).

When your defense faces some potential efficiency problems, you need to make up the field position difference on special teams, and while punter Drew Riggleman and all return men return, punt coverage was only decent, and returns were awful last year. Barring some major contributions from newcomers, this unit doesn't inspire confidence.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
29-Aug	UNLV	101
4-Sep	at UTSA	64
13-Sep	Nevada	70
20-Sep	California	82
2-Oct	at Oregon	3
11-Oct	USC	9
25-Oct	at Washington State	68
1-Nov	at UCLA	20
8-Nov	Colorado	99
15-Nov	Washington	28
22-Nov	at Utah	45
28-Nov	Arizona State	21

Five-Year F/+ Rk	7.8% (41)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	32
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	4 / -1.6
TO Luck/Game	+2.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	12 (6, 6)

10. Somewhere between tough out and South sleepers

It takes three "ifs" to turn Arizona into a sleeper in the Pac-12 South:

1. If the new starting quarterback can one-up B.J. Denker.
2. If the new stable of running backs can follow blocks well.
3. If the defensive line doesn't become a total liability.

Austin Hill's return, combined with lovely coaching, a well-seasoned offensive line, and another potentially great secondary, assures that Arizona will be pretty good, certainly good enough to beat the six teams projected 64th or worse on the schedule (or go 5-1 in those games and pull an upset) and send the Wildcats bowling again. (It will also be good enough to have won the division in 2011, but things change.)

With Arizona State, Washington, and USC all coming to Tucson, UA could do quite a bit of damage if it figures out how to improve once more. I don't expect that, but I didn't really expect it last year either.

Arizona's progress is worth watching. The Wildcats weren't as far along as ASU in 2013 and certainly aren't recruiting at a UCLA level, but the South balance of power appears to be in flux enough that if Rodriguez keeps putting top-25 teams on the field and recruiting well, the Wildcats could break through and win a division title at some point.

That point won't be 2014, but Arizona's fun and dangerous enough to watch regardless.

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