The big 2014 Arizona State football guide: The reloading year

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. And now, a reset

Nobody ever accused Dennis Erickson of failing to attract athletes. From Washington State to Miami to Oregon State to Arizona State, Erickson fielded teams that more than passed the eyeball test. They had swagger and speed in abundance.

And while a lot of his teams were maddeningly inconsistent -- after going 11-1 at Oregon State in 2000, his Beavers went 13-11 the next two years; and after going 10-3 in 2007, his first season at Arizona State, his Sun Devils went only 21-28 over the next four -- he is one hell of a table-setter.

At OSU, he left Mike Riley with plenty of athletes, and Riley hit the ground running, going 15-10 in his first two years back in Corvallis. And at ASU, he left Todd Graham with a full cupboard, from quarterback Taylor Kelly, to all-conference offensive linemen Evan Finkenberg and Jamil Douglas, to defensive tackle/missile Will Sutton, to ace pass rusher Carl Bradford, to safety Alden Darby, to cornerback Osahon Irabor.

Graham very much knew what to do with what he inherited. He plumped up the depth with some impressive early recruiting, and he went to work. ASU went from 6-7 and 44th in the F/+ rankings to 8-5 and 41st in 2012. The defense swarmed and the offense surged late in the year. And in 2013, everything fell into place. ASU jumped to 13th overall -- 11th on offense, 26th on defense -- and ripped off seven consecutive wins to take the Pac-12 South title and win 10+ games for the first time since 2007 (and only the third time since 1986).

Granted, there was some slippage late in the season. ASU couldn't clear the Stanford hurdle, losing twice to David Shaw's Cardinal by a combined 38 points. And the Sun Devils laid an egg in the Holiday Bowl against Texas Tech, throwing haymakers early and getting confused when the Red Raiders didn't fold quickly (a la 2012 Florida in the Sugar Bowl). But Graham's second season was easily ASU's best since Erickson's first. ASU was fast, aggressive, and exciting.

And now Graham starts over. Granted, the offense should be alright; Taylor Kelly returns, as do breakout receiver Jaelen Strong and three starters on the offensive line (including Douglas). But the defense faces a significant rebuild; the top three linemen, four of the top five linebackers, and five of the top seven defensive backs are gone. The combination of Erickson recruits and JUCO transfers gave ASU significant depth of experience in 2013, but experience turns into inexperience.

Graham has recruited pretty well, and he has exciting young players at every level of the defense. Plus, when he chooses to stay in one place for long enough, he is a hell of a coach, an Erickson 2.0 of sorts, molding athletic, confident squads. But it's impossible to assume anything but a defensive dropoff this year, even if it's just temporary. Over the first half of the season, ASU will face UCLA, USC, and Stanford, three of the Pac-12's five best teams. It's conceivable that 2014 will take on a narrative like 2012, when the Sun Devils struggled along the way but finished strong.

This is a "measure the fall" season for Graham and ASU. The Sun Devils almost certainly won't finish 13th overall again, but if they only fall to about 20th or so, they are in for some spectacular success over the coming years. And even if they fall to 30th-40th, they're stocked well for a rebound in 2015. After doing what he did in 2013, Graham has earned a mulligan; we'll see if he has to use it this fall.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-4 | Adj. Record: 11-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 13
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
5-Sep	Sacramento State	N/A	55-0	W	27.1 - 12.7	W
14-Sep	Wisconsin	19	32-30	W	38.8 - 24.2	W
21-Sep	at Stanford	3	28-42	L	30.2 - 29.2	W
28-Sep	USC	11	62-41	W	61.3 - 34.1	W
5-Oct	vs. Notre Dame	26	34-37	L	33.0 - 25.2	W	13.0
12-Oct	Colorado	95	54-13	W	37.5 - 23.3	W	13.0
19-Oct	Washington	18	53-24	W	43.0 - 11.8	W	16.3
31-Oct	at Washington State	53	55-21	W	37.8 - 20.3	W	19.5
9-Nov	at Utah	31	20-19	W	21.0 - 13.5	W	15.6
16-Nov	Oregon State	42	30-17	W	21.2 - 24.0	L	13.5
23-Nov	at UCLA	15	38-33	W	36.6 - 28.0	W	12.4
30-Nov	Arizona	25	58-21	W	37.2 - 21.4	W	9.3
7-Dec	Stanford	3	14-38	L	24.7 - 34.9	L	3.8
30-Dec	vs. Texas Tech	43	23-37	L	25.4 - 30.0	L	1.3

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+17.7%	11	+10.4%	26	+0.3%	60
Points Per Game	39.7	10	26.6	64
Adj. Points Per Game	33.9	24	23.8	26

2. Cracks were forming before Tech

As late as the second week of November, ASU was ranked sixth in the F/+ rankings. With losses to only Stanford and Notre Dame and huge wins over USC and Washington, the Sun Devils were showing high upside on both sides of the ball -- they ranked seventh in Off. F/+ and 12th in Def. F/+.

The wins continued in November, but there were warning signs.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 9 games): ASU 36.6, Opponent 21.8 (plus-14.8)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): ASU 29.0, Opponent 27.7 (plus-1.3)

The offense managed just 4.2 yards per play against Utah, and the Sun Devils were outgained by 51 yards and 0.9 yards per play in a win over Oregon State. Strong performances against UCLA and Arizona gave ASU the South title, but the season ended with two poor performances, first at home against Stanford, then in San Diego against the Fightin' Kingsburys.

So what does that mean for 2014? Hard to say. Leading rusher Marion Grice missed the final three games of the season but was in uniform for the duds against Utah and OSU, and as a whole, ASU was rather lucky when it comes to injuries. Whatever the reason, the Sun Devils faded a bit; that probably can't happen in 2014, when the offense is asked to carry a bit more weight.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.21	36	IsoPPP+	116.3	7
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	45.7%	36	Succ. Rt. +	115.0	21
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.4	39	Def. FP+	104.4	15
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.7	29	Redzone S&P+	109.7	29
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.6		ACTUAL	18	-0.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	32	12	21	11
RUSHING	40	13	21	11
PASSING	32	14	20	26
Standard Downs		18	30	9
Passing Downs		11	7	16

Q1 Rk	20	1st Down Rk	20
Q2 Rk	9	2nd Down Rk	21
Q3 Rk	69	3rd Down Rk	41
Q4 Rk	16

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Taylor Kelly	6'2, 211	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	302	484	3635	28	12	62.4%	39	7.5%	6.6
Michael Eubank				4	5	70	0	0	80.0%	0	0.0%	14.0
Mike Bercovici	6'1, 203	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	3	4	18	0	0	75.0%	1	20.0%	2.0
Manny Wilkins	6'2, 181	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

3. Your patented diamond-in-the-rough recruit

Mike Norvell found one hell of a muse in Taylor Kelly. Norvell has been a Graham assistant at Tulsa, Pitt, and ASU, and he has crafted a unique offense of pace and hybrids; last year, for instance, D.J. Foster was the Sun Devils' second-leading rusher and second-leading receiver. A scatback for a new generation, if you will. But in Kelly and Norvell, ASU has a perfect marriage between offensive philosophy and QB skill.

Kelly was more or less a recruiting afterthought; a lanky, two-star dual-threat from Eagle, Idaho, Kelly boasted of offers only from ASU and Nevada and chose the Sun Devils relatively late in the 2010 recruiting cycle. He backed up big Brock Osweiler in 2011, then beat out Mike Bercovici and others for the starting job under Graham and Norvell in 2012. His first-year stats were revelatory: a 67 percent completion rate, 29 touchdowns to nine interceptions, 6.7 yards per carry (not including sacks), 3,039 passing yards, 689 pre-sack rushing yards.

Kelly's stats regressed a bit in 2013; without No. 1 receiver Rashad Ross, he completed just 62 percent of his passes, and his per-attempt average (inc. sacks) regressed from 7.3 to 6.6. Opponents were able to adjust to his rushing tendencies, as well, and his per-carry average fell from 6.7 yards to 5.9.

The regression is a bit misleading, however. First, Kelly was asked to do more. Norvell didn't protect him as much, and ASU moved toward more of a pass-first approach on standard downs. Beyond that, however, Kelly's raw stats regressed a bit because of the defenses he was facing: Wisconsin (ninth in Def. F/+), Stanford (fourth), USC (fifth), Notre Dame (33rd), Washington (21st), Utah (30th), UCLA (23rd), Arizona (27th), Stanford again. In 14 games, ASU faced nine defenses ranked better than 35th in Def. F/+, four ranked better than 10th. That's how your quarterback's stats can regress while your offense improves from 51st in Off. F/+ to 11th.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Marion Grice	RB				191	996	14	5.2	4.5	42.4%
Taylor Kelly	QB	6'2, 211	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	134	784	9	5.9	5.6	41.8%
D.J. Foster	RB	5'11, 203	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	93	501	6	5.4	4.5	44.1%
Deantre Lewis	RB	5'11, 194	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	58	301	1	5.2	4.6	39.7%
R.J. Robinson	RB				29	114	1	3.9	1.6	37.9%
De'Marieya Nelson	TE	6'3, 224	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	15	96	2	6.4	10.5	33.3%
Michael Eubank	QB				13	20	3	1.5		0.0%
Mike Bercovici	QB	6'1, 203	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	9	54	0	6.0	2.6	55.6%
Kyle Middlebrooks	RB	5'9, 185	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)
De'Chavon Hayes	RB	5'11, 192	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Kalen Ballage	RB	6'3, 215	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Demario Richard	RB	5'10, 203	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jaelen Strong	WR-X	6'4, 212	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	120	75	1122	62.5%	25.3%	63.6%	9.4	200	9.3	154.3
D.J. Foster	RB	5'11, 203	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	91	63	650	69.2%	19.2%	64.5%	7.1	-86	7.3	89.4
Marion Grice	RB				65	50	438	76.9%	13.7%	40.4%	6.7	-118	5.3	60.2
Richard Smith	WR-Z				52	32	276	61.5%	11.0%	63.6%	5.3	-121	5.8	38.0
Chris Coyle	TE				48	29	423	60.4%	10.1%	70.7%	8.8	60	8.2	58.2
Kevin Ozier	WR-Y				32	23	354	71.9%	6.8%	55.2%	11.1	90	12.0	48.7
Cameron Smith	WR-Y	6'0, 187	So.	3 stars (5.5)	19	8	129	42.1%	4.0%	61.5%	6.8	6	9.8	17.7
De'Marieya Nelson	TE	6'3, 224	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	15	7	107	46.7%	3.2%	61.5%	7.1	6	7.9	14.7
Deantre Lewis	RB	5'11, 194	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	9	110	81.8%	2.3%	60.0%	10.0	13	8.9	15.1
Darwin Rogers	TE				9	4	66	44.4%	1.9%	100.0%	7.3	7	11.7	9.1
Frederick Gammage	WR-Z	5'10, 173	So.	NR	6	6	32	100.0%	1.3%	100.0%	5.3	-28	3.8	4.4
Gary Chambers	WR-Y	6'3, 209	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Ronald Lewis	WR-Z	6'0, 188	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Ellis Jefferson	WR-X	6'4, 209	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Grant Martinez	TE	6'5, 220	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Eric Lauderdale	WR	6'2, 195	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jalen Harvey	WR	6'2, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Tyler Whiley	WR	6'0, 193	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

4. Strong, Foster, and we'll see

A three-star JUCO transfer from Pierce College, Jaelen Strong emerged to take Rashad Ross' place as Kelly's No. 1 target in 2013. A majority of his damage came earlier in the season -- first six games: 42 catches, 678 yards, four scores; last eight: 33 catches, 444 yards, three scores -- but he still provided more than a newcomer typically should. With a year of Pac-12 experience under his belt, he should be a solid option in 2014. Plus, D.J. Foster returns. Foster and Marion Grice combined for incredibly unique production last fall: 284 carries for 1,497 yards, 156 targets and 113 catches for 1,088 yards. That's 31 intended touches and 185 yards per game, and that's with Grice missing the final three games of the year. Foster is sturdily built, but we'll see how many times he's asked to touch the ball in 2014.

Some of Foster's load might depend on who else steps up. Senior Deantre Lewis did pretty well when given the opportunity (69 intended touches, 411 yards), and sophomore Cameron Smith seems to have some upside. But it's hard to ignore the newcomers: four-star freshman running back Kalen Ballage, JUCO RB De'Chavon Hayes, four-star JUCO receiver Eric Lauderdale, four-star freshman receivers Jalen Harvey and Tyler Whiley.

If one of those five players becomes an immediate, dangerous option, ASU's offense will be fine. If two step up quickly, there's really no reason to think this offense will slip much, if any, from last season. The recruiting profiles suggest that's not too much to ask, but it's an unknown for now.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	105.6	2.81	3.74	41.5%	65.2%	18.5%	94.3	6.2%	6.6%
Rank	45	80	22	41	79	55	75	102	60

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Evan Finkenberg	LT				47	1st All-Pac-12
Jamil Douglas	LT	6'4, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	27	2nd All-Pac-12
Kody Koebensky	C				27
Vi Teofilo	RG	6'3, 303	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	17
Tyler Sulka	RT	6'5, 294	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	15
Sil Ajawara	LG				0
Christian Westerman	LG	6'4, 304	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	0
Evan Goodman	LT	6'4, 311	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0
Nick Kelly	C	6'4, 294	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Devin Goodman	RG	6'1, 290	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
William McGehee	RT	6'6, 305	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	0
Stephon McCray	LG	6'3, 313	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Sam Jones	OL	6'5, 285	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

5. The line could stand to improve

Even with a pair of all-conference performers on the left side of the line, and even with basically perfect continuity (five players starting 14 games each), the ASU line was only decent in 2013. I'll pin some of the iffy sack rates on Taylor Kelly, who fulfills the stereotype of a dual-threat quarterback by trusting his legs too much and taking too many sacks; still, the run blocking was only decent, too. When your offense ranks ranks 11th in overall Off. F/+ but you rank 45th in Adj. Line Yards, that can suggest that the line's holding you back a bit from higher heights.

Three of last year's five full-season starters are back, including Jamil Douglas, who moves from left guard to left tackle. And if Christian Westerman and/or Evan Goodman can begin living up to recruiting hype (especially Westerman's), there's no reason to think the line will regress much. But if it doesn't improve, it might again be a bit of an albatross for the offense as a whole. It's not a bad line, but it might still be the least effective unit on the offense.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.33	118	IsoPPP+	91.2	108
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	36.5%	13	Succ. Rt. +	122.0	8
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.7	4	Off. FP+	110.6	1
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	87	Redzone S&P+	85.8	99
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.1		ACTUAL	33.0	+7.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	42	17	8	30
RUSHING	25	30	10	44
PASSING	72	15	10	32
Standard Downs		12	7	98
Passing Downs		34	14	97

Q1 Rk	10	1st Down Rk	14
Q2 Rk	25	2nd Down Rk	23
Q3 Rk	45	3rd Down Rk	29
Q4 Rk	43

6. 2 starters

Using returning starters as a guide for projections or predictions is a bit rudimentary as a whole. It serves a clear purpose from a 20,000-foot view, and it gives you an adequate view of a unit's experience, but one can dial in a bit further using percentages -- returning percent of a defensive line's tackles, an offense's rushing yards, etc.

No matter how deep you choose to dig, however, you're not going to find many good things about Arizona State's defensive experience in 2014.

• Two returning starters.
• Sixteen percent of tackles and 10 percent of tackles for loss returning on the defensive line.
• Thirty-one percent of tackles, 15 percent of tackles for loss, and eight percent of passes defensed returning in the linebacking corps.
• Thirty-three percent of tackles and 20 percent of passes defensed returning in the secondary.
• Six of 17 players with at least 10.0 tackles in 2013.

All bad things.

Keith Patterson joins the ASU coaching staff this year; an old friend and colleague of Graham, he served as Graham's defensive co-coordinator or coordinator at Tulsa (2006-10) and Pitt (2011) before moving on to Arkansas State (2012) and West Virginia (2013). He takes on a unit that was rather unfairly criticized a year ago.

With eight returning starters, including most of the front seven, ASU's defense was supposed to improve last fall. It did improve -- from 31st in Def. F/+ to 26th -- but the improvement wasn't particularly significant, and because of the increase in schedule strength, it was difficult to see at all. ASU went from allowing 4.8 yards per play in 2012 to 5.5 in 2013, and the Sun Devils' fell from averaging 9.1 tackles for loss per game to 7.2.

There were certainly more glitches, more breakdowns for a defense that is willing to allow a few big plays to make a lot of big plays. But this was still a sturdy D, one of the most efficient units in the country and one that set its offense with impeccable field position time and again. And now it starts over. A Todd Graham defense wants to attack; can it this year?

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	118.5	2.33	3.28	35.7%	58.7%	24.3%	170.5	6.7%	10.1%
Rank	12	7	63	30	20	14	2	21	12

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Davon Coleman	DE				13	46.5	6.3%	15.0	8.5	0	1	0	0
Will Sutton	DT				14	38.5	5.2%	13.5	4.0	1	3	0	0
Gannon Conway	DE				14	31.0	4.2%	7.0	3.5	0	2	0	0
Jaxon Hood	DT	6'0, 300	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	14.5	2.0%	3.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Marcus Hardison	DE	6'5, 298	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Mo Latu	NT	6'3, 384	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Demetrius Cherry	DT	6'6, 298	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Corey Smith	DT	6'7, 282	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Zach Abdorrahimzadeh	NT	6'2, 280	Jr.	NR
Edmond Boateng	DE	6'4, 267	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Connor Humphreys	DE	6'4, 275	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Tashon Smallwood	DT	6'1, 292	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Chris Young	WILL				14	95.5	12.9%	17.5	7.5	0	1	2	0
Salamo Fiso	SAM	6'0, 236	So.	3 stars (5.7)	14	59.5	8.0%	5.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
Carl Bradford	DEVIL				14	53.0	7.2%	19.0	8.5	1	4	3	0
Anthony Jones	WILL				14	31.0	4.2%	2.5	1.0	1	2	1	0
Steffon Martin	SAM				14	27.5	3.7%	1.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Laiu Moeakiola	SPUR	6'0, 211	So.	3 stars (5.6)	10	16.5	2.2%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
De'Marieya Nelson	DEVIL	6'3, 230	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	14	14.0	1.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	2	0
Grandville Taylor	WILL				14	10.0	1.3%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Antonio Longino	WILL	6'3, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	8	4.5	0.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Carlos Mendoza	WILL	6'1, 234	So.	3 stars (5.6)	6	4.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Marcus Washington	SPUR	6'0, 223	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)
Eriquel Florence	DEVIL	6'1, 253	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Viliami Latu	DEVIl	6'2, 265	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Chans Cox	DEVIL	6'3, 245	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)
Alani Latu	SAM	6'2, 236	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
DJ Calhoun	WILL	6'0, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Ishmael Murphy-Richardson	LB	6'4, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Christian Sam	LB	6'1, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

7. A brand new pass rush

The run defense might not necessarily suffer much. The Sun Devils return plenty of size -- the three most experienced returnees on the line (last year's backups) average 6'3, 327. Size alone doesn't equal run stopping, but there's hope here, especially considering four of the returnees' 21.5 tackles in 2013 came behind the line.

That said, a lack of experience could lead to more breakdowns. And more tangibly, the pass rush has been decimated. Six players had at least 3.0 sacks a year ago; five are gone. Salamo Fiso had exactly 3.0 and is now the team's returning leader in that regard. There are plenty of former star recruits in the mix at linebacker -- sophomore Viliamu Latu, redshirt freshman Chans Cox, freshman DJ Calhoun, and lots of high three-star guys -- but one has to wonder if Graham and Patterson will feel quite as comfortable sending the house at the opposing quarterback as they did last year.

ASU was second in the country in Adj. Sack Rate; harassment was a huge part of their game, and now they'll go about attempting it with an almost completely new cast.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alden Darby	BS				14	63.0	8.5%	2	0	4	9	2	0
Damarious Randall	FS	6'0, 189	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	59.5	8.0%	5.5	0	3	3	2	0
Robert Nelson	CB				14	50.5	6.8%	0	0	6	6	0	0
Osahon Irabor	CB				14	47.5	6.4%	5.5	1	3	5	0	0
Lloyd Carrington	CB	5'11, 189	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	22.5	3.0%	0	0	1	1	1	0
Shane McCullen	S				14	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rashad Wadood	CB				10	7.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ezekiel Bishop	BS	5'11, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	7	6.0	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Solomon Means	CB	6'1, 174	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Jordan Simone	BS	6'0, 190	Jr.	NR
Marcus Ball	BS	6'3, 216	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
James Johnson	FS	6'2, 198	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jayme Otomewo	S	6'2, 186	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
William Earley	CB	6'1, 206	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Kweishi Brown	DB	6'0, 198	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Marcus Mehlhaf-Brown	CB	6'2, 167	Jr.	NR

8. Youth = breakdowns

A lesser pass rush will put more pressure on the secondary to hold its coverage and make plays. The return of senior safety Damarious Randall will help, and Lloyd Carrington held his own at times as a third corner.

But they're basically the only 2013 contributors still on the roster. Star safety Alden Darby is gone, as are active corners Robert Nelson and Osahon Irabor (combined: 5.5 tackles for loss, 23 passes defensed). Projected starting corner Rashad Wadood transferred to Eastern Washington.

It's conceivable that ASU will be starting two redshirt freshmen in the secondary: Marcus Ball finished the spring tied atop the depth chart with Jordan Simone at boundary safety, and in Wadood's absence, either William Earley, Solomon Means, or JUCO transfer Marcus Melhof-Brown could start at the other corner spot. It's also possible that Randall moves to cornerback full-time, but that would plug one hole and open up another one.

Again, they might be athletic enough to make some plays, and they should improve as the year progresses. But ASU already had a bit of a big-play-breakdowns problem last year, and that could metastasize with youth.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Alex Garoutte	6'1, 207	Sr.	35	38.8	8	14	5	54.3%
Matt Haack	6'1, 195	So.	16	38.3	1	6	3	56.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Alex Garoutte	6'1, 207	Sr.	106	62.2	39	3	36.8%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Zane Gonzalez	6'1, 184	So.	63-65	21-24	87.5%	4-6	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Marion Grice	KR			21	24.1	0
Robert Nelson	KR			12	20.4	0
Robert Nelson	PR			31	6.4	0
Alden Darby	PR			2	1.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	60
Field Goal Efficiency	46
Punt Return Efficiency	92
Kick Return Efficiency	84
Punt Efficiency	38
Kickoff Efficiency	41
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	54

9. Help in special teams

Your defense was a field poition gem, and now you have to replace almost every difference maker. You might need to get more help from a field position unit that was decent if unspectacular last year, but at least you've got kicker Alex Garoutte back. And new return men might not be a bad thing, since nobody was incredibly successful in that position last year.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	Weber State	NR
6-Sep	at New Mexico	115
13-Sep	at Colorado	99
25-Sep	UCLA	20
4-Oct	at USC	9
18-Oct	Stanford	6
25-Oct	at Washington	28
1-Nov	Utah	45
8-Nov	Notre Dame	25
15-Nov	at Oregon State	43
22-Nov	Washington State	68
28-Nov	at Arizona	36

Five-Year F/+ Rk	10.1% (33)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	23
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	15 / 6.5
TO Luck/Game	+3.0
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	8 (6, 2)

10. How much noise can Sun Devil Stadium make?

I really like what Todd Graham is building in Tempe. He's recruiting well, he has coordinators who are both familiar and effective, he's recruited four-star guys at almost every position, he has maintained the level of athleticism that Erickson left for him, and he has won 18 games in two years in an improving conference. Long-term, there's a lot to like about ASU, even if the tie between "Todd Graham" and "long-term" will forever feel tenuous.

That said, it's obviously going to be difficult for ASU to avoid regression in 2014. I'm not worried about the offense, but I envision a defense that makes quite a few plays but suffers far more breakdowns and glitches.

In today's Pac-12, if you're holding steady, you're losing ground. And ASU will be lucky to even hold steady this year. But the Sun Devils do have a rather home-friendly schedule. UCLA, Stanford, Utah, Notre Dame and Washington State -- all teams that might be predicted to beat ASU at their own home stadiums -- visit Tempe this fall. Granted, ASU still has to play at USC, Washington, Oregon State, and Arizona (good god, the Pac-12 is difficult), but the home slate and what should be an easy pair of season-opening non-conference games should assure that, at worst, ASU approaches its eight-win total from Graham's first year.

Take your licks with your young, high-upside guys, and get ready to make another run at a South title in 2015 (depending on the QB situation) or 2016.

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