The big 2014 USC football guide: Trojans are sleepers? Welcome to 2014

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. "Team A is overrated"

It is in our nature to see the outliers first. It is also in our nature to try to discount anything that doesn't match our own perceptions. In this way, numbers are anti-social. They disagree with you, and they never back down when they do so. You can say, "Yeah, but..." as many times as you want; the same numbers are going to just keep staring back at you.

There are flaws in the F/+ rankings, the same way that there are flaws in all rankings. They only measure what they are designed to measure, and nothing more, and in a season that includes only 12-14 games for 125+ teams, they just won't have as much data as they want to have.

False impressions creep in, especially considering the effects of injuries and other mitigating factors that the rankings aren't designed to observe. But they can still drop some pretty clear hints.

(I've used this example before, but it's a pretty good one, so bear with me.)

See if you can pick out the strangest outliers in the 2011 F/+ rankings. The top three teams were, to anybody's eyeballs, the top three teams of 2011. And you had some nice teams a bit further down -- 10-4 Georgia at No. 14, 11-2 Arkansas at No. 16, etc. But you also had 8-5 Notre Dame at No. 13 and 7-6 Texas A&M at No. 15. Which teams' rankings do you suppose people complained the most about?

Now let's move to 2012. Again, the top of the rankings make perfect sense -- national champion Alabama at No. 1, a 12-1 Oregon team at No. 2, a Texas A&M with two tight losses (to the No. 4 and No. 10 teams, no less) and the only win over Alabama at No. 3. Further down, we've got 8-5 Oklahoma State at No. 12 (ahead of 11-2 South Carolina and 12-0 Ohio State) and 7-6 Michigan State at No. 15 (ahead of 10-4 Nebraska, 11-2 Clemson, and 11-2 Louisville).

We saw these teams as mediocre, squads that couldn't close games, and teams playing mediocre bowls in which they belonged. The next year, we were talking about all four as major rebounds. Notre Dame and A&M went 15-11 in 2011 and 23-3 in 2012. Michigan State and Oklahoma State went 15-11 in 2012 and 23-4 in 2013.

Granted, this doesn't always work. But generally, teams that seem strangely high in the F/+ rankings are probably high because they aren't far away from a much better record. And if they return the right pieces and get a bit more luck the next year, that better record usually comes.

Great! Neat! So which underdogs can we expect to break through, based on stat outliers?

Oh. No. 11 USC.

Welcome to 2014, in which the program that won 82 games and generated seven straight top-five AP finishes from 2002-08, then finished 10-2 and sixth in 2011, is your national sleeper. How boring.

USC had just enough well-timed dud performances to allow us to understate what the Trojans did for much of the 2013 season. There is no excuse for the Washington State loss, and losing to Arizona State and UCLA by a combined 42 points is not particularly heartening. And they tended to save their absolute best performances for mediocre opponents -- Boston College, Oregon State, Fresno State. (Yes, they did beat Stanford, which counts as a strong performance. But they were outgained and reliant on turnovers; it wasn't their best performance of the season.)

Finishing 10-4 with shaky early quarterback play, midseason coaching drama, and some of the worst depth in the country thanks to NCAA sanctions is no small feat. And with a new coach and higher levels of experience, USC isn't too many ifs away from becoming really good.

Unless you're a USC fan, that's probably not what you wanted to hear. And it's not what new head coach Steve Sarkisian wants to hear, either. It's a lot easier to fly under the radar in your first season in charge.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 10-4 | Adj. Record: 11-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 11
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	at Hawaii	82	30-13	W	25.0 - 8.6	W
7-Sep	Washington State	53	7-10	L	10.3 - 11.6	L
14-Sep	Boston College	65	35-7	W	42.4 - 10.4	W
21-Sep	Utah State	32	17-14	W	28.6 - 14.0	W
28-Sep	at Arizona State	13	41-62	L	39.7 - 45.5	L	11.2
10-Oct	Arizona	25	38-31	W	37.8 - 30.6	W	9.4
19-Oct	at Notre Dame	26	10-14	L	25.3 - 17.8	W	11.1
26-Oct	Utah	31	19-3	W	17.6 - 10.6	W	6.1
1-Nov	at Oregon State	42	31-14	W	36.3 - 22.8	W	5.9
9-Nov	at California	103	62-28	W	44.3 - 32.1	W	9.5
16-Nov	Stanford	3	20-17	W	27.6 - 23.6	W	8.8
23-Nov	at Colorado	95	47-29	W	32.4 - 29.5	W	7.9
30-Nov	UCLA	15	14-35	L	27.1 - 28.9	L	6.2
21-Dec	vs. Fresno State	49	45-20	W	37.2 - 9.7	W	9.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+6.5%	37	+21.5%	5	+1.0%	46
Points Per Game	29.7	59	21.2	16
Adj. Points Per Game	30.8	50	21.1	12

2. Not much changed

There wasn't some late-season surge on which USC can hang its hat. That would be another positive sign for 2014, considering the number of returnees, but it's not really there. Instead, the Trojans were simply volatile early -- great against BC, borderline-awful against Wazzu and Arizona State -- and steady late.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): USC 29.2, Opponent 18.0 (plus-11.2)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 9 games): USC 31.7, Opponent 22.8 (plus-8.9)

One would think it would be the other way around. When your head coach gets fired five games into the season, you might assume that the team would then rally around its interim coach, especially when that interim is the charismatic Ed Orgeron. But you might also assume that the effect would wear off, and over the course of nine remaining games, there would be some pretty well-defined ups and downs. Instead, there was only one real down (UCLA), a couple of real ups (Stanford, Fresno State), and some generally solid, steady play.

The Trojans handled their business against Arizona (yards per play: USC 7.3, UA 6.6). They outplayed Notre Dame (USC 5.1, ND 4.4) but lost because of some drive-finishing stumbles (two missed field goals, two late turnovers on downs). They dominated a slipping Utah offense (USC 4.2, Utah 2.9). They lit up a slipping Oregon State defense (USC 7.5, OSU 6.1) and a plain-old-bad Cal defense (USC 9.8, Cal 5.0). And after the Stanford win, they did what they needed to against Colorado (USC 6.3, CU 4.9).

Orgeron was almost certainly never going to get the full-time head coaching position, but an exhausted-looking loss to UCLA clinched that. Still, until UCLA they were basically an unlucky bounce or two in South Bend away from a 7-0 record under ol' Ed. And with interim coach Clay Helton leading the way, the Trojans were flawless in the Vegas Bowl.

After the train wreck of the September losses to Wazzu and ASU, the Trojans made something of 2013.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	30	IsoPPP+	106.5	33
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.1%	78	Succ. Rt. +	103.4	46
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.3	38	Def. FP+	106.5	8
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	72	Redzone S&P+	121.4	13
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.8		ACTUAL	17	-2.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	74	41	47	71
RUSHING	63	38	52	30
PASSING	72	36	48	101
Standard Downs		35	28	56
Passing Downs		51	79	6

Q1 Rk	25	1st Down Rk	22
Q2 Rk	32	2nd Down Rk	52
Q3 Rk	45	3rd Down Rk	56
Q4 Rk	73

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Cody Kessler	6'1, 210	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	236	362	2967	20	7	65.2%	30	7.7%	7.1
Max Wittek				14	26	212	0	1	53.8%	4	13.3%	6.3
Max Browne	6'5, 220	RSFr.	5 stars (6.1)
Jalen Greene	6'2, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

3. New Cody

It took a little while, but Cody Kessler finally settled in as USC's starting quarterback in 2013. He will be Sarkisian's first USC starter, and if the last six games are any indication, he'll be fine.

• First 8 games: 132-for-222 (59%), 1,677 yards (12.7/comp), 9 TD (4.0%), 7 INT (3.1%)
• Last 6 games: 118-for-168 (70%), 1,502 yards (12.7/comp), 11 TD (6.5%), 2 INT (1.1%)

There were sketchy moments in the early going. In wins over Hawaii, Washington State, and Utah State, Kessler completed only 53 percent of his passes at 9.7 yards per completion. That's awful even before you take into account the fact that he had Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor at his disposal. The frustratingly conservative, pro-style passing game of then-head Lane Kiffin and coordinator Clay Helton didn't suit the explosive personnel, and when combined with an injury to Lee, it took a while for the passing game to click.

The passing didn't get much more aggressive when Kiffin left, but Kessler got better at it. He was 31-for-38 for 417 yards against Oregon State and Cal, then went a mistake-free 25-for-37 for 288 against Stanford. And in the bowl game against Fresno, he was both accurate and unshackled: 22-for-30, 344 yards, four touchdowns, one pick.

Fresno State might not be the new normal here, especially with Helton still in charge of the offense, but Kessler's performance from basically the Oregon State game on might represent sustainable improvement. He'll have to make do with a line that didn't live up to its recruiting rankings last year (and must replace three three-year starters), and he won't have Lee this year. Plus, he might be asked to run a bit more, which might or might not work out fine. (And hey, if he gets hurt running, there's a five-star redshirt freshman backing him up.)

But he'll have enough weapons around him to do some damage ... if the Kessler of the last half of the season is the real Kessler.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Tre Madden	RB	6'1, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	138	703	3	5.1	4.5	38.4%
Javorius Allen	RB	6'1, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	134	774	14	5.8	7.8	38.8%
Silas Redd	RB				81	376	1	4.6	3.6	38.3%
Justin Davis	RB	6'1, 195	So.	4 stars (6.0)	53	361	6	6.8	8.4	43.4%
Ty Isaac	RB				40	236	2	5.9	6.0	42.5%
Cody Kessler	QB	6'1, 210	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	12	73	1	6.1	12.8	25.0%
John Akiba	RB				9	36	0	4.0	2.0	22.2%
Soma Vainuku	FB	6'0, 270	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	8	78	1	9.8	12.6	50.0%
Marqise Lee	WR				6	7	0	1.2	2.6	33.3%
Max Wittek	QB				6	0	1	0.0		0.0%

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Marqise Lee	WR				91	57	791	62.6%	24.9%	54.5%	8.7	91	8.9	114.0
Nelson Agholor	WR	6'1, 190	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	89	56	918	62.9%	24.4%	50.6%	10.3	232	10.8	132.3
Darreus Rogers	WR	6'1, 215	So.	4 stars (5.8)	34	22	257	64.7%	9.3%	33.3%	7.6	-9	6.7	37.0
Javorius Allen	RB	6'1, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	29	22	252	75.9%	7.9%	36.0%	8.7	6	9.9	36.3
Xavier Grimble	TE				28	25	270	89.3%	7.7%	72.0%	9.6	10	8.9	38.9
Tre Madden	RB	6'1, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	19	15	201	78.9%	5.2%	23.5%	10.6	36	5.5	29.0
De'Von Flournoy	WR				13	9	135	69.2%	3.6%	60.0%	10.4	30	6.9	19.5
Randall Telfer	TE	6'4, 260	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	6	78	46.2%	3.6%	46.2%	6.0	-9	6.5	11.2
Soma Vainuku	FB	6'0, 270	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	9	74	81.8%	3.0%	70.0%	6.7	-23	5.9	10.7
Jahleel Pinner	FB	5'11, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	10	7	33	70.0%	2.7%	55.6%	3.3	-48	3.2	4.8
Silas Redd	RB				10	10	45	100.0%	2.7%	30.0%	4.5	-54	4.2	6.5
Victor Blackwell	WR	6'1, 195	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	5	4	49	80.0%	1.4%	0.0%	9.8	5	3.4	7.1
Jalen Cope-Fitzpatrick	TE	6'4, 250	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	4	1	4	25.0%	1.1%	100.0%	1.0	-18	1.1	0.6
George Farmer	WR	6'1, 220	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)
Steven Mitchell	WR	5'10, 180	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)
JuJu Smith	WR	6'2, 210	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
Rahshead Johnson	WR	5'11, 175	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Bryce Dixon	TE	6'4, 240	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

4. Nelson and a hell of a supporting cast

Plans change.

Heading into 2013, USC returned both all-world receiver Marqise Lee and 900-yard running back Silas Redd; after 181 and 179 intended touches (targets plus carries) respectively in 2012, there was reason to assume the 2013 offense would be built around the duo. But Lee missed three games with injury and limped through others, while Redd played in only six games.

The future came early, with sophomores Tre Madden and Javorious Allen turning into the team's feature backs and sophomore Nelson Agholor spending part of the year as the No. 1 target. And while USC didn't have a top-10 offense last year, it survived, especially as Kessler grew into his role.

Agholor ended up in some ways playing the role of 2012 Marqise Lee. Lee averaged 10.2 yards per target as he overtook Robert Woods as the No. 1 option that year, and Agholor averaged 10.3 in 2013. Granted, the similarities don't go much further -- Agholor had lower catch rates and a higher per-catch average, making him more of an all-or-nothing guy to an extent. Plus, he was targeted just 89 times in 13 games, as opposed to the double-digits-per-game targeting of Lee in 2012. But we were looking for signs of a sky-high ceiling from this former five-star prospect, and we saw plenty of them last fall: seven catches for 161 yards against Arizona, eight for 104 against Stanford, five for 94 against Fresno State.

Agholor and Kessler will have help in the passing game, as well. Darreus Rogers was sufficient as a freshman No. 3. Allen and Madden showed quite a bit of potential out of the backfield: anything better than six or seven yards per target is pretty good for running backs/checkdown options, and the duo combined to average 9.4. If another wideout emerges -- juniors George Farmer or Victor Blackwell, redshirt freshman Steven Mitchell, either of two potential two-way blue-chippers (JuJu Smith, Adoree' Jackson) -- then Kessler should have more than enough options, especially considering Madden, Allen, and Justin Davis all showed a solid mix of efficiency and explosiveness in the ground game.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.3	3	2.5	38.4%	67.7%	21.2%	79.0	8.2%	7.1%
Rank	39	57	117	75	69	92	96	115	69

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Marcus Martin	C				35	1st All-Pac-12
Kevin Graf	RT				38
John Martinez	RG				30
Max Tuerk	C	6'6, 285	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)	20
Aundrey Walker	RG	6'6, 315	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	17
Chad Wheeler	LT	6'7, 280	So.	3 stars (5.5)	14
Abe Markowitz	C				1
Nathan Guertler	RT	6'5, 270	Sr.	NR	0
Giovanni Di Poalo	LG	6'4, 280	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0
Erick Jepsen	RG	6'2, 295	Jr.	NR	0
Zach Banner	RT	6'9, 350	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0
Khaliel Rodgers	RG	6'2, 295	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)
Nico Falah	LT	6'4, 285	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Damien Mama	OG	6'5, 370	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)
Viane Talamaivao	C	6'3, 330	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Toa Lobendahn	LG	6'3, 280	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Chris Brown	OT	6'5, 295	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jordan Austin	LT	6'5, 280	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

5. Holes up front

Agholor emerged, Kessler was great over the home stretch, the running backs were solid ... okay, that's great. So why did USC rank only 37th in Off. F/+ last year with all of these great weapons?

Well, inconsistency played a large role, especially with Kessler's feckless early performances. But the line was and is the concern. Despite three players entering their third years as starters (counting John Martinez, who started only five games last year), USC ranked 39th in Adj. Line Yards (down from 17th in 2012). And despite a passing game based mostly on shorter passes (to really good receivers), the Trojans ranked 96th in Adj. Sack Rate (down from 16th).

Sure, a first-time starting quarterback had a role to play in the latter, and no matter how high the ceiling, the non-Redd running backs were two sophomores and a freshman. That's going to lead to inconsistency. But despite 25 career starts, Martinez wasn't consistent enough to hold on to his starting job, and it took much of the year to figure out the optimal rotation.

Six linemen started at least five games, and only three of them return. With a new offensive line coach with a hell of a résumé (Tim Drevno, former OL coach for Jim Harbaugh at Stanford and for the 49ers) and a more experienced backfield, maybe weakness becomes strength. And with the recruiting rankings involved here (of the 14 current linemen listed above, 10 were given four-star ratings or higher), that wouldn't be a shock.

But this line wasn't supposed to be a weakness last year. It bears the burden of proof.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.14	62	IsoPPP+	107.1	33
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	34.0%	6	Succ. Rt. +	124.4	7
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.4	65	Off. FP+	104.6	15
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.8	21	Redzone S&P+	102.7	46
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.4		ACTUAL	23.0	-0.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	13	5	7	11
RUSHING	14	24	11	35
PASSING	32	5	6	2
Standard Downs		6	6	15
Passing Downs		13	8	67

Q1 Rk	8	1st Down Rk	6
Q2 Rk	6	2nd Down Rk	50
Q3 Rk	39	3rd Down Rk	16
Q4 Rk	47

6. Good coordinator + good pieces

While plenty of iffy defensive coordinators have become or remained employed this offseason, one of the best appears to be be sitting this season out.

In 2010, Clancy Pendergast inherited a California defense that had ranked 72nd in Def. F/+ in 2009. He averaged a No. 49 ranking over three seasons in Berkeley, peaking at 31st in 2011. When Jeff Tedford was fired, Pendergast wasn't retained, and Cal's defense plummeted to 99th.

Pendergast landed in a pretty good spot, replacing Monte Kiffin at USC. He immediately got results: after ranking 25th and 33rd in Def. F/+ in 2011-12, the Trojans surged to fifth last fall. They had some tenuous moments right before and after Kiffin was fired -- Arizona State and Arizona combined for 1,120 yards and 93 points -- but for most of the rest of the season, they held opponents far below season averages. And they did so with shaky, sanctions-related depth and some injuries in the secondary.

For the second straight season, however, Pendergast found himself a victim of a coaching change. When Sarkisian was hired, he wanted to bring in his own D.C., and Pendergast found himself unemployed.

One really can't blame Sarkisian. New coordinator Justin Wilcox has his own set of turnarounds on the résumé. The 37-year-old from Eugene, Oregon, crafted the No. 4 and 14 defenses at Boise State in 2008-09, then moved on to salvage Tennessee's defense. In 2011, the Vols improved from 49th to 35th. Wilcox landed with Sarkisian in 2012, and his first Washington defense improved from 100th to 37th.

In three jobs over the period of six seasons, Wilcox has fielded only one unit that didn't either rank among the nation's best or improve dramatically. Pendergast's fate is unfortunate, but Wilcox should be able to do plenty of damage with the unit he inherits, at least if injury luck cooperates.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.4	2.58	3.22	38.3%	64.5%	18.3%	129.8	5.9%	8.2%
Rank	38	22	55	53	47	77	15	30	36

Name

Pos

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

GP

Tackles

% of Team

TFL

Sacks

Int

PBU

FF

FR

Leonard Williams

DE

6'5, 300

Jr.

4 stars (6.0)

13

52.0

7.2%

12.5

5.0

0

0

1

0

George Uko

DE

14

24.0

3.3%

7.0

5.0

0

0

1

0

Antwaun Woods

NT

6'1, 325

Jr.

4 stars (5.8)

13

13.5

1.9%

2.0

1.0

0

1

0

0

Joey Augello

NT

6'0, 290

Jr.

NR

3

2.0

0.3%

0.0

0.0

0

0

0

0

Greg Townsend Jr.

DE

6'3, 275

Jr.

4 stars (5.9)

Delvon Simmons

DT

6'5, 295

Jr.

4 stars (5.9)

Cody Temple

NT

6'2, 310

Jr.

3 stars (5.5)

Kenny Bigelow

DT

6'3, 310

RSFr.

5 stars (6.1)

Claude Pelon

DT

6'4, 295

Jr.

4 stars (5.8)

7. Questionable depth up front

USC's line rotation up front last year was, shall we say, sparse. The players who played were quite strong: at nose tackle, Antwaun Woods ate blockers like [insert Los Angeles food reference here ... fish tacos? Chicken and waffles? Overpriced burgers? your choice], Leonard Williams proved big and quick enough (even with a torn labrum) to be a natural, dominant 3-4 end, George Uko was a strong pass rusher, and natural OLB J.R. Tavai was able to hold his own when asked.

But there really wasn't a second string. These players got almost all of the snaps. Predictably, they faded. (Just look at the per-quarter rankings above.)

Williams and Woods return, as do plenty of former star recruits. But it would behoove Wilcox to rotate more players. The sooner, the better. You could run on USC, especially in the second half. A deeper line will help in that regard, but "depth" does require some untested players to prove themselves.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Hayes Pullard	MLB	6'1, 235	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	14	69.0	9.5%	5.5	0.0	1	6	0	0
Devon Kennard	OLB				14	47.0	6.5%	13.0	9.0	0	4	0	1
J.R. Tavai	OLB	6'2, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	46.0	6.4%	8.0	3.5	0	0	0	0
Anthony Sarao	WLB	6'0, 220	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	14	31.0	4.3%	2.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Lamar Dawson	WLB	6'1, 230	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	7	27.0	3.7%	3.5	1.5	0	2	0	0
Quinton Powell	WLB	6'2, 200	So.	4 stars (5.8)	14	18.5	2.6%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jabari Ruffin	OLB	6'3, 240	So.	4 stars (6.0)	13	16.5	2.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Michael Hutchings	MLB	6'1, 210	So.	4 stars (5.9)	14	16.0	2.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Morgan Breslin	OLB				5	12.0	1.7%	8.0	4.5	0	0	0	0
Scott Starr	OLB	6'2, 230	So.	4 stars (5.8)	6	6.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Marquis Simmons	OLB				4	5.0	0.7%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Charles Burks	OLB	5'11, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	2.5	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Nick Schlossberg	WLB	6'0, 215	So.	NR
Olajuwon Tucker	ILB	6'3, 220	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Josh Shaw	FS	6'1, 200	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	14	55.0	7.6%	5.5	0	4	7	0	0
Dion Bailey	FS				14	53.0	7.3%	6.5	0.5	5	6	1	0
Demetrius Wright	FS				14	47.5	6.6%	2.5	0	0	3	0	0
Su'a Cravens	SS	6'1, 225	So.	5 stars (6.1)	13	46.0	6.4%	2.5	0	4	1	2	0
Kevon Seymour	CB	6'0, 185	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	14	43.5	6.0%	2	0	1	6	0	0
Torin Harris	CB				14	24.0	3.3%	0	0	1	7	0	0
Leon McQuay III	SS	6'1, 185	So.	5 stars (6.1)	14	15.0	2.1%	0	0	1	4	1	0
Anthony Brown	CB	5'9, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	2	7.5	1.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Dillard	CB	5'9, 185	Jr.	NR	10	5.0	0.7%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Devian Shelton	CB	6'1, 180	So.	4 stars (5.8)	1	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	2	0	0
Rob Dooley	SS	6'1, 195	So.	NR	8	2.0	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Gerald Bowman	S	6'0, 205	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)
Kevin Carrasco	CB	6'0, 185	So.	NR
Chris Hawkins	CB	5'11, 185	RSFr.	4 stars (6.0)
Matt Lopes	S	5'11, 180	RSFr.	NR
Elijah Steen	CB	6'0, 190	So.	NR
JuJu Smith	S	6'2, 210	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
Adoree' Jackson	CB	5'11, 185	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
Jonathan Lockett	CB	5'11, 175	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

8. You know the back seven's pretty good...

...when you can talk yourself into little or no drop-off despite the loss of Devon Kennard and Dion Bailey. The former finally found his niche as a 3-4 OLB in 2013, serving as one of the best pass rushers on the West Coast. The latter moved from corner to safety and finished with the rare combination of 6.5 tackles for loss and 11 passes defensed. Demetrius Wright and Torin Harris are also gone in the secondary, while Kennard's OLB counterpart Morgan Breslin has also departed.

Eh. They're fine anyway.

The Trojans still have Tavai, who emerged as a solid weapon at OLB following Breslin's early-season injury. They still have middle man Hayes Pullard, a steady weapon against both run (5.5 non-sack TFLs) and pass (seven passes defensed). They still have four four-star sophomore linebackers who got their feet wet last season. They still have free safety/missile Josh Shaw at free safety. They still have strong safety/nuclear missile Su'a Cravens, who could eventually transition to OLB. They still have five-star sophomore Leon McQuay III. And junior Kevon Seymour. And Anthony Brown and Devian Shelton. And a fresh load of exciting incoming freshmen. And ... well, you get the point.

Whereas the injury bug avoided the defensive line for the most part, it tested depth at linebacker and in the secondary. And the Trojans passed the test. There are still question marks regarding run defense and the trenches, but I just can't worry about the back of the defense. It's going to be damn strong.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Kris Albarado	5'10, 200	Jr.	79	37.1	4	30	27	72.2%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Andre Heidari	5'11, 220	Sr.	77	62.1	19	2	24.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Andre Heidari	5'11, 220	Sr.	49-52	11-13	84.6%	4-9	44.4%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Nelson Agholor	KR	6'1, 190	Jr.	10	17.5	0
Marqise Lee	KR			10	16.4	0
Nelson Agholor	PR	6'1, 190	Jr.	18	19.1	2
Marqise Lee	PR			8	5.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	46
Field Goal Efficiency	84
Punt Return Efficiency	3
Kick Return Efficiency	77
Punt Efficiency	103
Kickoff Efficiency	35
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	4

9. Shore up the punting game

Thanks to Nelson Agholor's punt returns and some solid kickoff coverage, USC's special teams graded out alright in 2013. But there were some issues; Agholor and Lee never did much damage in kick returns, Andre Heidari proved both strong-legged (four field goals over 40 yards) and inconsistent (three missed PATS), and the punt coverage was lacking. Kris Albarado's kicks were awfully high (30 fair catches) but awfully short. His 37.1 yard average ranked 99th among players with at least 3.6 punts per game.

If the defense is struggling against the run, USC will need some field position help.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Fresno State	48
6-Sep	at Stanford	6
13-Sep	at Boston College	69
27-Sep	Oregon State	43
4-Oct	Arizona State	21
11-Oct	at Arizona	36
18-Oct	Colorado	99
25-Oct	at Utah	45
1-Nov	at Washington State	68
13-Nov	California	82
22-Nov	at UCLA	20
29-Nov	Notre Dame	25

Five-Year F/+ Rk	17.8% (20)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	10
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	6 / 3.5
TO Luck/Game	+0.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (6, 8)

10. We won't have to wait too long to find out

Okay, so USC might be pretty damn good this year. If Kessler maintains his late-season form, and if the offensive and defensive lines don't regress, this is a potential top-10 team. Those aren't significant ifs.

Sometimes we have to wait a while to figure out if a team really is what we think it might be. (Case in point: 2013 Florida State.) But that won't be the case for USC this fall. In the first three weeks of the season, the Trojans will host a tricky (and beatable) Fresno State squad, head to Palo Alto to fend off a Stanford revenge attempt, and travel 3,000 miles northeast to face Boston College. That will tell us plenty right there.

The middle portion of the schedule is reasonably manageable, if still landmine-laden (at Arizona, at Utah, at Wazzu, ASU at home), and the requisite UCLA and Notre Dame games finish things off.

A top-15 team should expect to go 10-2 or so against this schedule. Hell, a truly elite team might go 10-2 with the Stanford and UCLA road games. So perhaps that tamps the expectations down a bit.

But if you're looking for a sleeper this year, a team built to exceed conventional wisdom's expectations, I have a pretty boring answer for you. USC's going to be damn good.

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