The big 2014 Kentucky football guide: Young Wildcats and real momentum

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. And now we wait

We rank things in college football. We rank teams, coaches, position players, units, the temperature of coaches' seats ...

It serves a purpose during the season, even if it gets tedious over the course of three to four months. But when the season ends and we enter our eight-month waiting period, we just keep ranking things. Teams before spring football. Heisman candidates before they've played a game.

It's silly. It's mostly harmless -- especially now that preseason polls don't have a direct impact on the national championship, since the Playoff committee doesn't do preseason polls -- and it keeps us talking about the sport for a full 12 months of the year. But it's still silly.

The silliest practice of all: ranking recruiting classes in June. It's eight months before Signing Day, some of your commits are quite possibly going to decommit, and a lot of the national recruiting powers have only begun to circle the wagons. A string of commitments and a high ranking can give your program some perceived momentum, but will that create a perceived backslide when the power schools reel you in and overtake you?

Take Kentucky, for instance. In mid-June 2013, Mark Stoops' Wildcats incredibly had the No. 1 class in the country according to Rivals.com. With 19 commitments, they also had more slots filled than most teams did. They made national headlines, then quietly slid back to 17th by Signing Day (and 22nd at 247 Sports). When you make a big deal of a team's recruiting rankings -- stars matter! this is the way to the top! -- then finish ninth in your own conference, how much of a perceptions win is that?

All that said ... Kentucky has gone 4-20 in the last two seasons and just inked, at worst, a top-25 recruiting class. Take perceived momentum and temporary No. 1 classes off of the table, and that's still awfully impressive. Stoops inherited a rather bare cupboard and has stocked it as well as he can in barely 18 months on the job. If he and his staff turn into impressive developers of talent, there's quite a bit of well-established talent to work with in his 2014 recruiting class.

And now comes the wait. Even if every four-star signee plays like a four-star signee, that probably isn't going to make much of a difference in 2014. Kentucky has ranked 112th and 97th in the F/+ rankings over the last two years; there's no quick rebound from that, at least not unless you're named Auburn.

Thus far, Stoops has remained publicly patient and understanding of the task at hand. He's already earned a raise because of his stellar recruiting, but the timeline is still a relatively long one. All he can hope is that Kentucky improves on the field enough in 2014 to give some "See? We're moving up!" ammunition for the 2015 class, and that probably isn't too much to ask.

At first glance, it's easy to assume that the Wildcats will be better at quarterback, running back, receiver, offensive line, defensive end, linebacker, and defensive back in 2014 -- basically everywhere but defensive tackle. The weaknesses will still be relatively weak, but Kentucky will be better in 2014 than it was in 2013. And barring some epic defections list, the Wildcats will probably be better in 2015, too. After a rapid three-year slide, that's reason to celebrate in and of itself.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 2-10 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 97
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	vs. Western Kentucky	77	26-35	L	38.1 - 34.0	W
7-Sep	Miami (Ohio)	123	41-7	W	41.4 - 9.6	W
14-Sep	Louisville	12	13-27	L	41.0 - 29.2	W
28-Sep	Florida	48	7-24	L	22.9 - 46.5	L
5-Oct	at South Carolina	10	28-35	L	32.3 - 35.1	L	4.3
12-Oct	Alabama	2	7-48	L	17.5 - 37.3	L	-0.5
24-Oct	at Mississippi State	33	22-28	L	20.9 - 26.8	L	-8.1
2-Nov	Alabama State	N/A	48-14	W	19.3 - 36.6	L	-13.9
9-Nov	Missouri	14	17-48	L	24.2 - 29.6	L	-10.2
16-Nov	at Vanderbilt	50	6-22	L	17.1 - 21.1	L	-10.5
23-Nov	at Georgia	22	17-59	L	17.2 - 39.2	L	-10.9
30-Nov	Tennessee	72	14-27	L	24.1 - 33.4	L	-11.6

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-3.3%	74	-12.0%	109	-0.8%	86
Points Per Game	20.5	109	31.2	90
Adj. Points Per Game	26.3	80	31.5	97

2. Three weeks of potential

For a brief time in September, it looked like the on-field rebuild was well on its way. Granted, in round-robin play, Kentucky finished last in the state of Kentucky. The Wildcats couldn't close drives as well as WKU and lost to Bobby Petrino's Hilltoppers, and while they were competitive against an excellent Louisville team, they still fell by 14 points. But the above adjusted scores show us that Kentucky was well above average overall in the first three games of the season.

And then came the next nine games.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): Kentucky 40.2, Opponent 24.3 (plus-15.9)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 9 games): Opponent 34.0, Kentucky 21.7 (minus-12.3)

After September 14, on-field progress was measured by a couple of good quarters or drives here and there. After an awful start, UK went on a 21-8 run in the fourth quarter to make the South Carolina game competitive. The Wildcats drove for a score and forced two punts to start the Missouri game. After falling behind Mississippi State by 14 points, they scored 12 straight to make it 21-19 late in the third quarter. They trailed Vandy by just three heading into the fourth quarter.

These are things most bad teams point to when looking for progress, but UK was just too young and banged up to do any more damage than that. In 2014, we'll find out if the experience that so many young players got was a good, developmental thing, or whether it was more akin to a triple-A pitcher getting promoted too early and stunting growth.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.17	47	IsoPPP+	107.3	31
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	39.1%	95	Succ. Rt. +	95.0	79
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.7	61	Def. FP+	101.4	41
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	82	Redzone S&P+	110.9	25
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.3		ACTUAL	15	-6.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	109	68	80	55
RUSHING	86	54	76	52
PASSING	100	79	72	57
Standard Downs		52	64	31
Passing Downs		92	109	27

Q1 Rk	34	1st Down Rk	61
Q2 Rk	88	2nd Down Rk	40
Q3 Rk	80	3rd Down Rk	90
Q4 Rk	23

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Maxwell Smith	6'4, 238	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	105	183	1276	9	1	57.4%	18	9.0%	5.9
Jalen Whitlow				98	159	1035	5	5	61.6%	16	9.1%	5.3
Patrick Towles (2012)	6'5, 238	So.	4 stars (5.8)	19	40	233	1	1	47.5%	4	9.1%	4.5
Reese Phillips	6'2, 218	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Drew Barker	6'3, 216	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)

3. Lots of candidates, no standouts ... again

Last year, I used my only "Spinal Tap drummers" reference of the preview series -- it's too dated a reference to make more than once per year -- on Kentucky quarterbacks. The 2013 season didn't dissuade me from doing the same this year.

Indeed, through a toxic combination of poor performance and injury, Kentucky has gone through a Spinal Tappian number of quarterbacks in recent years. In 2011, Maxwell Smith (then a freshman) threw 153 passes in eight games while Morgan Newton threw 174 in 10. In 2012, Smith threw 150 in four, Jalen Whitlow (then a freshman) threw 161 in 10, Patrick Towles (freshman) threw 40 in five, and Newton threw 32 in seven. In 2013, with Towles out all season, Smith threw 183 in nine while Whitlow threw 159 in 12. Bouncing between the dual-threat Whitlow and the pass-first Smith, Kentucky managed to rank 79th in Passing S&P+ -- not good, but a drastic improvement over the 111th-place finish of 2012. Whitlow added a nice dimension on the ground but went nowhere with his passes, while Smith was more likely to get the ball downfield and less likely to throw picks. They both took far too many sacks.

So naturally, spring ended with Smith fourth on the depth chart, Whitlow gone (via transfer to Eastern Illinois), and Towles tied with a freshman (blue-chipper Drew Barker) and redshirt freshman (Reese Phillips) for the starting job. Smith missed spring with shoulder surgery and might or might not be a serious candidate at this point.

Offensive coordinator Neal Brown wants to throw the ball. He was a wide receiver for Hal Mumme and Mike Leach at Kentucky; he learned under Tony Franklin (Mumme's offensive coordinator at Kentucky after Leach left for Oklahoma) for a couple of years at Troy before taking over the Troy offense himself, then moving on to post-Leach Texas Tech. Mark Stoops hiring Brown was a nice nod (intentional or not) to both Kentucky's recent history and the successful hiring practices of Mark's brother Bob, who famously hired Leach as his first Oklahoma O.C.

UK's run-pass ratios were a bit confused in 2013, thanks mostly to the mix of Smith (201 pass attempts including sacks, 12 rush attempts) and Whitlow (175 pass attempts, 91 rushes), but Brown wants to spread the ball around. He'll want to even more in 2014, considering he returns a lot more proven depth at receiver than running back.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Raymond Sanders III	RB				107	464	3	4.3	3.2	42.1%
Jojo Kemp	RB	5'10, 192	So.	3 stars (5.7)	100	482	3	4.8	4.2	41.0%
Jalen Whitlow	QB				91	569	6	6.3	7.5	40.7%
Dyshawn Mobley	RB				43	300	1	7.0	9.7	39.5%
Jonathan George	RB				20	58	1	2.9	1.7	35.0%
Ryan Timmons	WR	5'10, 195	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	91	0	7.6	8.6	50.0%
Maxwell Smith	QB	6'4, 238	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	5	0	0.4	5.6	8.3%
Javess Blue	WR	6'0, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	4	19	0	4.8	14.3	25.0%
Braylon Heard (Nebraska 2012)	RB	5'11, 189	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	52	348	3	6.7	4.4	N/A
Josh Clemons	RB	5'10, 223	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Stanley "Boom" Williams	RB	5'9, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Mikel Horton	RB	6'1, 230	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Javess Blue	WR	6'0, 191	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	67	43	586	64.2%	20.1%	70.0%	8.7	64	8.4	80.9
Ryan Timmons	WR	5'10, 195	So.	3 stars (5.7)	49	32	338	65.3%	14.7%	75.0%	6.9	-47	6.9	46.7
Demarco Robinson	WR	5'10, 158	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	33	20	213	60.6%	9.9%	44.0%	6.5	-37	7.2	29.4
Jeff Badet	WR	6'0, 169	So.	3 stars (5.5)	32	21	262	65.6%	9.6%	65.4%	8.2	10	6.9	36.2
Raymond Sanders III	RB				28	19	137	67.9%	8.4%	52.4%	4.9	-87	4.1	18.9
Alexander Montgomery	WR	6'2, 210	So.	3 stars (5.7)	25	16	137	64.0%	7.5%	57.9%	5.5	-57	5.4	18.9
Jordan Aumiller	TE				24	12	124	50.0%	7.2%	72.2%	5.2	-42	5.0	17.1
Anthony Kendrick	TE				18	9	141	50.0%	5.4%	53.8%	7.8	16	5.8	19.5
Jojo Kemp	RB	5'10, 192	So.	3 stars (5.7)	16	10	79	62.5%	4.8%	77.8%	4.9	-44	4.6	10.9
A.J. Legree	WR				14	7	97	50.0%	4.2%	22.2%	6.9	0	5.0	13.4
Steven Borden	TE	6'3, 246	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	5	3	63	60.0%	1.5%	N/A	12.6	25	0.0	8.7
Daryl Collins	WR				4	1	5	25.0%	1.2%	N/A	1.3	-17	0.0	0.7
Ronnie Shields	TE	6'6, 254	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	4	1	7	25.0%	1.2%	N/A	1.8	-15	0.0	1.0
Joey Herrick	WR	6'1, 197	Jr.	NR	3	2	15	66.7%	0.9%	N/A	5.0	-9	0.0	2.1
Rashad Cunningham	WR	6'4, 225	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Cameron Fogle	WR	5'11, 203	RSFr.	NR
Dorian Baker	WR	6'3, 197	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Blake Bone	WR	6'5, 198	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Thaddeus Snodgrass	WR	6'1, 178	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

4. A hell of a skill position unit (in 2015 or 2016)

There's reason to believe that UK's backs and wideouts will be better in 2014 than they were last year.

Raymond Sanders III and Jojo Kemp were efficient runners but lacked in explosiveness; Kemp returns and is joined by a variety of interesting newcomers -- Nebraska transfer Braylon Heard (also more efficient than explosive at NU), junior Josh Clemons (technically not a newcomer, but he hasn't played since 2011 after a series of injuries), explosive blue-chip freshman Boom Williams, and big freshman Mikel Horton. You've got plenty of big, plenty of small, and plenty of options.

The wideout position should benefit from 2013's crash course. Of last year's top five receivers, four were newcomers. JUCO transfer Javess Blue and freshmen Ryan Timmons, Jeff Badet, and Alexander Montgomery combined for 112 catches and 1,323 yards, and while only Blue and Badet really showed any serious per-target acuity, they all had moments. Blue caught six passes for 114 yards against Miami (Ohio) and five for 93 against Georgia. Timmons had three for 72 against Louisville and five for 69 against Mississippi State. Badet caught seven passes in the first seven games, then caught 15 in the last five. Returnee Demarco Robinson caught five for 69 in the season opener. Montgomery caught 10 passes in September.

None of these are mind-blowing moments, but all proved they could be decent AQ-conference receivers. They'll all get opportunities again this fall, though they could be pushed by a trio of exciting freshmen: Dorian Baker, Blake Bone, and Thad Snodgrass.

If the backs can average 5.0 yards per carry, and the top five wideouts (whoever they are) can average 7.8 to 8.0 yards per target, that won't make for a world-beating skill position unit, but it would represent clear improvement that, considering the youth of the unit as a whole, would mean very good things for 2015 and beyond.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	97.4	2.88	2.83	39.8%	70.2%	21.0%	73.7	5.2%	11.6%
Rank	82	76	106	62	54	87	103	79	114

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Darrian Miller	LT	6'5, 292	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	26
Kevin Mitchell	RG				25
Zach West	LG	6'4, 318	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	21
Jordan Swindle	RT	6'7, 306	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12
Jon Toth	C	6'5, 301	So.	2 stars (5.4)	11
Max Godby	LG	6'4, 298	Sr.	NR	2
Teven Eatmon-Nared	LT	6'7, 339	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	1
Zach Myers	C	6'3, 287	So.	3 stars (5.6)	1
Jack Gruenschlaeger	RG	6'11, 363	Jr.	NR	0
Shaquille Love	RT	6'4, 323	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Kyle Meadows	RT	6'5, 294	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Nick Haynes	LG	6'3, 319	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Ramsey Meyers	RG	6'4, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Cole Mosier	RG	6'6, 348	RSFr.	NR
Nick Richardson	OL	6'4, 272	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jarrett LaRubbio	OL	6'8, 282	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

5. The line stats should come around

Last year, UK was not only changing systems but replacing two three-year starters up front: all-conference guard Larry Warford and center Matt Smith. An unseasoned line took its lumps last fall, especially with two indecisive (in different ways) quarterbacks making reads in (or out of) the pocket. The Wildcats' line stats fell from 24th in Adj. Line Yards and 67th in Adj. Sack Rate to 82nd and 103rd, respectively.

Kentucky has almost double the returning career starts (39 heading into 2013, 74 heading into 2014), a year in Brown's system, and almost all of last year's two-deep returning. The running backs should be pretty efficient, and the QBs won't be any worse at taking sacks. Only three of the seven players with starting experience are seniors, too, so good continuity in 2014 could lead to more good continuity in 2015.

(Now if you'll pardon me, I'm going to daydream about a line of tackles Jordan Swindle and Teven Eatmon-Nared, guards Jack Gruenschlaeger and Cole Mosier, and center Jon Toth -- an average size of 6'7, 331. Fun.)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	50	IsoPPP+	99.8	60
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.4%	113	Succ. Rt. +	91.1	98
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	27.6	106	Off. FP+	97.5	88
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	99	Redzone S&P+	85.9	98
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	18.1		ACTUAL	15.0	-3.1

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	92	95	98	86
RUSHING	94	97	83	91
PASSING	64	85	101	70
Standard Downs		80	74	59
Passing Downs		113	120	55

Q1 Rk	112	1st Down Rk	61
Q2 Rk	37	2nd Down Rk	113
Q3 Rk	96	3rd Down Rk	86
Q4 Rk	89

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	92.7	3.31	3.47	42.2%	81.8%	16.7%	112.9	4.6%	9.2%
Rank	91	107	80	98	121	94	37	56	19

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alvin Dupree	DE	6'4, 264	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	47.5	7.0%	9.5	7.0	0	1	2	0
Za'Darius Smith	DE	6'6, 263	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	12	41.5	6.1%	6.5	6.0	0	1	0	0
Donte Rumph	DT				12	35.5	5.3%	6.0	2.0	0	0	1	0
Tristian Johnson	DT				12	19.0	2.8%	2.5	0.0	0	2	2	0
Mike Douglas	DT	6'4, 288	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	18.5	2.7%	1.5	1.0	0	2	0	0
Mister Cobble	DT				12	17.5	2.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jason Hatcher	DE	6'3, 242	So.	4 stars (5.8)	9	17.0	2.5%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Farrington Huguenin	DE	6'4, 275	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	12	12.0	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Alvin Davis Jr.	DE				11	7.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Christian Coleman	DT	6'3, 288	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jabari Johnson	DE	6'1, 276	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Melvin Lewis	DT	6'4, 320	Jr.	NR
Jacob Hyde	DT	6'2, 333	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Regie Meant	DT	6'4, 286	RSFr.	2 stars (5.3)
Cory Johnson	DT	6'3, 299	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)

6. A pass rush can only take you so far

The Kentucky offense showed marked improvement, from bad to below average, in 2013. The defense, not so much. The Wildcats moved from 113th in Def. F/+ to just 109th and provided basically one distinct strength: the pass rush.

Now, a pass rush is important, and if Kentucky was able to leverage you into passing downs (a rarity), Wildcat ends were often able to tee off. Ends Alvin Dupree and Za'Darius Smith combined for 13 sacks and served as one of the league's better duos in that regard; in D.J. Eliot's 4-2-5 system, it's key to be able to generate pressure without blitzing too much. You can check that box.

Of course, a pass rush only matters if you have other strengths, too. Not only couldn't Kentucky actually force passing downs, but on the 90 percent of passing downs pass attempts that didn't result in sacks, chances are the opponent's quarterback was finding a wide open receiver. Even with a strong pass rush, Kentucky ranked 80th in Standard Downs S&P+ and a woeful 113th in Passing Downs S&P+. The Wildcats couldn't stop the run, and the only way they stopped the pass was by bringing down the QB.

In 2014, the end position should be as strong, or even stronger: Dupree and Smith are both back, as is four-star sophomore Jason Hatcher. The problem is that the tackle position has been severely depleted -- three of last year's top four are gone, including leader Donte Rumph -- and it doesn't yet appear that the linebacker position is ready to start making plays. UK probably won't be much better against the run this fall, so even if the pass defense improves overall, that will only matter so much.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Avery Williamson	MLB				12	74.0	11.0%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Khalid Henderson	WLB	6'1, 228	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	37.5	5.6%	3.0	1.0	1	1	2	0
TraVaughn Paschal	MLB	6'4, 257	Sr.	NR	9	27.5	4.1%	4.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Josh Forrest	MLB	6'3, 236	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	12.5	1.9%	0.5	0.0	1	0	0	0
Daron Blaylock	WLB	6'1, 214	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	12.0	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Miles Simpson	WLB				12	8.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kory Brown	SLB				3	3.5	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tre' Dunn	WLB	6'2, 225	Sr.	NR	12	3.0	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Malcolm McDuffen	SLB				10	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Dorian Hendrix	LB	6'0, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Kobie Walker	LB	6'3, 201	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

7. Wanted: play-makers under 260 pounds

So yeah, Dupree and Smith are keepers. What else might Kentucky bring to the table defensively? Hard to say. The top five returning linebackers combined for 7.5 tackles for loss and three passes defensed.

No, play-making stats are not the end-all, be-all for measuring player proficiency, especially when we're talking about linebackers in a 4-2-5 system. But Kentucky fell well short of the play-making bar overall in 2013, and while stellar recruiting could help the offense and the secondary (and perhaps the defensive tackle position), it's not immediately clear that it's going to help at linebacker, at least not without some developmental time. Big TraVaughn Paschal is intriguing at middle linebacker, and Khalid Henderson has two solid years of experience now, but this isn't a unit that will strike fear in opponents' hearts.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Blake McClain	NB	5'11, 194	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	48.0	7.1%	1	1	0	5	1	0
Eric Dixon	NB	5'11, 193	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	44.0	6.5%	0.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Fred Tiller	CB	6'0, 170	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	43.0	6.4%	4	0	0	4	1	0
Ashely Lowery	S	6'1, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	35.5	5.3%	0.5	0	1	3	1	1
Nate Willis	CB	6'0, 168	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	9	29.0	4.3%	2	0	0	5	0	0
Cody Quinn	CB	5'10, 172	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	21.5	3.2%	1.5	0	0	3	0	0
J.D. Harmon (2012)	CB	6'2, 201	So.	NR	12	20.5	3.0%	0	0	2	4	0	0
Jaleel Hytchye	CB	5'10, 167	So.	3 stars (5.7)	8	8.5	1.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Marcus McWilson	S	6'0, 210	So.	4 stars (5.8)	8	6.0	0.9%	2	0.5	0	0	0	1
Glenn Faulkner	S	6'2, 195	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	12	5.0	0.7%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dakotah Tyler	S				9	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Keron Wakefield	CB	5'10, 161	RSFr.	NR
A.J. Stamps	S	6'0, 199	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Zack Blaylock	S	6'0, 191	So.	3 stars (5.7)
Darius West	S	6'0, 193	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Kendall Randolph	CB	6'0, 168	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jared Tucker	CB	5'11, 159	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. A passing-downs horror show

Good news: Kentucky returns its top nine defensive backs from 2013.

Bad news: These nine are returning from one of the nation's worst secondaries.

Despite a top-40 pass rush, UK ranked 85th in Passing S&P+ and 113th on passing downs. It is perhaps exciting that the four most intriguing returnees from a pure play-maker perspective -- nickel back Blake McClain, corner Fred Tiller, corner J.D. Harmon, and safety Marcus McWilson -- were all either freshmen or sophomores last year. (Harmon redshirted in 2013.) Only McClain and Tiller project as starters this year, but maybe there's hope there. And maybe the addition of a pair of JUCO transfers (A.J. Stamps, Zack Blaylock) and two four-star freshmen (Darius West, Kendall Randolph) can plump up the overall quality a bit.

They better, at least, because the secondary is the cornerstone of the 4-2-5, and Kentucky's just wasn't good enough last year.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Landon Foster	6'1, 198	Jr.	68	41.3	6	16	15	45.6%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Joe Mansour			51	59.6	8	1	15.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Joe Mansour			28-30	10-10	100.0%	2-4	50.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Javess Blue	KR	6'0, 191	Sr.	25	20.4	0
Demarco Robinson	KR	5'10, 158	Sr.	5	25.6	0
Demarco Robinson	PR	5'10, 158	Sr.	11	10.4	0
Javess Blue	PR	6'0, 191	Sr.	7	2.9	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	86
Field Goal Efficiency	30
Punt Return Efficiency	124
Kick Return Efficiency	62
Punt Efficiency	85
Kickoff Efficiency	19
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	22

9. Punts were not Kentucky's friend

Joe Mansour was quite solid in 2013, both in booting high, unreturnable kickoffs and in making 10 of 10 field goals under 40 yards. And in Javess Blue and Demarco Robinson, the Wildcats had a couple of reasonably consistent return men. But punting and punt returns did not go well from a consistency persepctive; the per-punt and per-return numbers were decent, but both units were quite all-or-nothing and created field position disadvantages that Kentucky really did not need.

Mansour is gone, but punter Landon Foster and all return men return. We'll see if that's a particularly good thing.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	UT Martin	NR
6-Sep	Ohio	103
13-Sep	at Florida	29
27-Sep	Vanderbilt	61
4-Oct	South Carolina	7
11-Oct	UL-Monroe	106
18-Oct	at LSU	12
25-Oct	Mississippi State	26
1-Nov	at Missouri	22
8-Nov	Georgia	10
15-Nov	at Tennessee	55
29-Nov	at Louisville	16

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-8.8% (84)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	19
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	0 / -3.2
TO Luck/Game	+1.3
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (8, 8)

10. A good September is key

When you've won four games in two years, you "improved" to 97th overall last year (in what is either the best or second-best conference in the country), and you're probably going to be leaning on quite a few freshmen and sophomores, you probably shouldn't set the bar too high.

I do see Kentucky improving on paper in 2014, but what that means for expectations will depend on how September goes. If UK avoids upset against Ohio and beats Vanderbilt at home, they could start the season 3-1 (4-2 by mid-October), and if you're looking for "They've got momentum!" storylines, that's a good way to generate some.

A backloaded schedule should prevent UK from getting too far beyond four wins, of course, but 2014 is all about confidence and momentum -- real momentum, not recruiting-rankings-in-June momentum -- and the Wildcats could absolutely generate some this fall.

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