The big 2014 Vanderbilt football guide: Starting over with a familiar blueprint

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Three years, 24 wins

James Franklin was only at Vanderbilt for three seasons. It felt like longer. Franklin won as many games as Vandy had in its previous six years. He won as many bowls as the 'Dores had in 52 years. He engineered as many top-25 finishes as Vandy ever had.

Franklin put together a sound staff, recruited like crazy, and filled reporter notebooks with obnoxiously charismatic, footbally quotes about toughness and discipline. He backed up the talk by putting one of the SEC's most disciplined teams on the field, one capable of taking advantage of every mistake its opponent made. The Commodores went 6-2 in one-possession games in the last two years, finished 2012 with seven straight wins, and finished 2013 with five.

Franklin did an incredible job of not only winning games but resetting the bar for Vandy football; the former was great in the present tense, and the latter is the key to the future. We no longer have to speculate what it might take to win in Nashville -- we've now seen precisely what it takes. We've also seen that you can recruit at a higher level than we expected. Franklin's tenure was an eye-opening experience.

One gets the impression that Vandy fans were getting a little bit tired of the constant "Franklin to ___" rumors and of Franklin's inability to tamp them down. And while he didn't seem to have any inappropriate involvement in any cover-up, there was a sexual assault scandal on his watch. His wasn't a perfect tenure, but he's still the most successful Vandy coach since Red Sanders (who also left for a bigger-name school).

And now he's gone, off securing four-star commitment after four-star commitment for Penn State. What comes next for Vanderbilt football?

2. Stealing from Stanford makes sense

I always advocated for Vandy to hire either Mike Leach or Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo because of the uniqueness and underdog favorability of the offenses they run; while acknowledging that both coaches would bring their own set of issues to the table -- Leach obviously doesn't have the best reputation among athletic directors at the moment, and Niumatalolo is a dormant volcano mixed inside a glass case of emotion on the sidelines -- but other than a slow pace, Franklin brings little uniqueness (in terms of personality/footprint) to the table, and for this job, that is a strike against him.

I wrote that three years ago. It feels like longer. I was distracted by Vandy's woeful history, and I was wooed by more extreme examples of underdog offenses. I was unconvinced that any coach in America could pull in top-30 recruiting classes at Vandy, and I was blind to the now-obvious fact that there are plenty of ways to win football games.

In recent years, Stanford (since about 2009), Vanderbilt (since 2011), and others have proven that there's a counter to the counter. While so many teams have gotten smaller and faster to adapt to the spread-offense universe, others have decided to get bigger and stronger. While so many teams have adopted a mach-speed tempo, others have found success in slowing things down.

Granted, a persual of the rosters shows us Stanford's recruited at a higher level for a longer period of time. And granted, Stanford has established a much higher level of play overall -- while Vandy was able to constantly defeat mediocre and bad teams (last two years: 0-7 vs. teams with nine or more wins, 18-1 against teams with eight or fewer), Stanford has played at a truly elite level (11-3 and 12-2, respectively). But both teams have been using versions of the same blueprint in recent years, and worse or not, Vandy's won 18 games in two years in the SEC. That wasn't supposed to be possible.

It makes sense, then, that in looking to replace its best coach in 70 years, Vanderbilt turned to The Farm.

New head coach Derek Mason has put in the hours and miles since his career as a Northern Arizona cornerback ended. He moved from Idaho State (running backs coach, 1997-98), to Bucknell (defensive backs coach, 1999-2001), to Utah (receivers and special teams coach, 2002). He spent a year at NMSU, then moved to Ohio, then spent three years with the Minnesota Vikings. He landed on Harbaugh's staff at Stanford in 2010, became defensive co-coordinator for David Shaw in 2011, then became outright D.C. in 2012.

And while he isn't the sole reason for this (other coaches played a role, as did a drastic upgrade in recruiting), it's not a total coincidence that Stanford's defense averaged a Def. F/+ ranking of 82.3 in the three years before his arrival and 9.0 after.

Mason's got the bona fides, and one assumes he has as good a chance as anybody of either maintaining Franklin's momentum or generating even more. But as I find myself saying often, difficult jobs remain difficult. A good coach can have some success at Vandy, but it will take a great one to build off of what Franklin established.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 9-4 | Adj. Record: 6-7 | Final F/+ Rk: 50
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	Ole Miss	28	35-39	L	34.9 - 30.2	W
7-Sep	Austin Peay	N/A	38-3	W	31.6 - 16.8	W
14-Sep	at South Carolina	10	25-35	L	27.4 - 31.9	L
21-Sep	at Massachusetts	118	24-7	W	28.1 - 33.1	L
28-Sep	UAB	115	52-24	W	35.6 - 24.3	W	4.3
5-Oct	Missouri	14	28-51	L	33.6 - 35.9	L	2.9
19-Oct	Georgia	22	31-27	W	27.5 - 11.4	W	3.1
26-Oct	at Texas A&M	23	24-56	L	17.1 - 31.7	L	1.1
9-Nov	at Florida	48	34-17	W	21.5 - 30.4	L	0.3
16-Nov	Kentucky	97	22-6	W	17.3 - 17.4	L	-2.0
23-Nov	at Tennessee	72	14-10	W	21.2 - 19.1	W	-1.1
30-Nov	Wake Forest	81	23-21	W	27.6 - 31.6	L	-5.1
4-Jan	vs. Houston	46	41-24	W	24.3 - 18.5	W	-1.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+1.4%	55	+2.6%	48	+1.9%	30
Points Per Game	30.1	55	24.6	46
Adj. Points Per Game	26.8	75	25.6	43

3. Fine until Austyn went down

Scheduling's a funny thing. Using the adjusted scores above, we see that Vanderbilt was quite likely a better team over the first half of the season. But the Commodores began the season 4-4 thanks to a load of five top-30 opponents in the first eight games. The schedule eased up down the stretch, with five teams ranked 46th or worse, and VU won five in a row while playing worse football.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 7 games): Vandy 31.2, Opponent 26.2 (plus-5.0)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): Opponent 26.5, Vandy 18.6 (minus-7.9)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 3 games): Vandy 24.4, Opponent 23.1 (plus-1.3)

The defense held mostly steady throughout, playing consistently above-average ball, but the team's overall quality took a hit when senior quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels went down. He tore his ACL against Georgia, missed the A&M and Florida games, managed to return to play three games down the stretch (at a decreased but still relatively effective level), then had surgery and missed the bowl game.

Backup Patton Robinette, then a redshirt freshman, had a chance to stake a solid claim to the starting role in 2014 and beyond, but he struggled. He completed just 52 percent of his passes, took a sack on one of every eight pass attempts, and threw more interceptions than touchdowns. He showed some big-play potential, but not quite enough to secure the starting job. (His fake jump pass against Tennessee, however, was devine.)

And with the loss of both AC-S and star receiver Jordan Matthews, the passing game is in a state of flux heading into the fall.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.01	116	IsoPPP+	88.0	118
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.0%	64	Succ. Rt. +	96.5	73
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	29.9	66	Def. FP+	99.4	66
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	40	Redzone S&P+	102.0	52
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.6		ACTUAL	23	+3.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	94	93	74	90
RUSHING	93	104	80	99
PASSING	69	69	62	64
Standard Downs		73	53	112
Passing Downs		115	114	105

Q1 Rk	111	1st Down Rk	37
Q2 Rk	54	2nd Down Rk	98
Q3 Rk	102	3rd Down Rk	119
Q4 Rk	27

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Austyn Carta-Samuels

193

281

2268

11

9

68.7%

20

6.6%

7.1

Patton Robinette

6'4, 214

So.

3 stars (5.6)

46

88

642

4

5

52.3%

12

12.0%

6.0

Johnny McCrary

6'4, 230

RSFr.

4 stars (5.8)

Stephen Rivers (LSU)

6'7, 236

Sr.

3 stars (5.7)

Wade Freebeck

6'5, 212

Fr.

3 stars (5.6)

4. QB grab bag

Robinette has starting experience and showed at least a little bit of potential explosiveness in averaging 14.0 yards per completion. He also picked and chose his rushing spots well, gaining at least five yards on 26 of 59 non-sack carries. Johnny McCrary is an athletic former four-star recruit who had a nice spring. Stephen Rivers is a big-armed graduate transfer from LSU with strong blood lines. Wade Freebeck is a Mason recruit with size and potential.

If you spend 30 seconds searching the Internet, you can find a prediction that Robinette is the front-runner, that McCrary has the upper-hand, that Rivers is clearly the guy, and that Freebeck might see the field sooner than later. In terms of pure uncertainty and unpredictability, this is one of the most noteworthy fall-camp position battles in the SEC this year.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jerron Seymour	RB	5'7, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	164	716	14	4.4	4.6	32.3%
Wesley Tate	RB				92	363	4	3.9	2.3	35.9%
Brian Kimbrow	RB	5'8, 185	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	81	341	3	4.2	4.3	37.0%
Patton Robinette	QB	6'4, 214	So.	3 stars (5.6)	59	260	7	4.4	2.9	44.1%
Austyn Carta-Samuels	QB				55	235	5	4.3	2.9	40.0%
Jordan Matthews	WR				6	54	0	9.0	7.2	66.7%
Derek King	RB	5'11, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	5	23	0	4.6	6.5	20.0%
Ralph Webb	RB	5'10, 196	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Dallas Rivers	RB	6'1, 225	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jordan Matthews	WR				157	112	1477	71.3%	43.9%	61.5%	9.4	188	8.9	183.7
Jonathan Krause	WR				59	42	714	71.2%	16.5%	58.3%	12.1	230	10.3	88.8
Jerron Seymour	RB	5'7, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	30	19	126	63.3%	8.4%	50.0%	4.2	-106	4.2	15.7
Wesley Tate	RB				25	18	149	72.0%	7.0%	61.1%	6.0	-57	3.7	18.5
Jordan Cunningham	WR	6'1, 175	So.	4 stars (5.8)	24	15	123	62.5%	6.7%	33.3%	5.1	-61	5.1	15.3
Kris Kentera	WR	6'4, 220	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	20	10	100	50.0%	5.6%	82.4%	5.0	-39	3.8	12.4
Steven Scheu	TE	6'5, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	15	9	123	60.0%	4.2%	75.0%	8.2	10	7.6	15.3
Brian Kimbrow	RB	5'8, 185	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	9	5	19	55.6%	2.5%	14.3%	2.1	-46	4.3	2.4
Fitz Lassing	FB				8	4	25	50.0%	2.2%	100.0%	3.1	-30	2.2	3.1
Latevius Rayford	WR	6'1, 192	So.	3 stars (5.7)	3	2	29	66.7%	0.8%	N/A	9.7	5	0.0	3.6
Trey Wilkins	WR	5'11, 210	Sr.	NR	3	2	4	66.7%	0.8%	0.0%	1.3	-20	1.1	0.5
Trent Pruitt	WR				3	3	44	100.0%	0.8%	66.7%	14.7	14	15.1	5.5
DeAndre Woods	WR	6'3, 215	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
C.J. Duncan	WR	5'11, 195	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Gerald Perry	WR	5'10, 165	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Nathan Marcus	TE	6'5, 238	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Mitch Parsons	TE	6'4, 250	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Trent Sherfield	WR	6'0, 185	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

5. Where do the touches go?

While we're dealing with uncertainty, let's talk about Vandy's skill position lineup. The Commodores return a pair of decent, replacement-level running backs in Jerron Seymour and Brian Kimbrow; both have shown decent play-making ability, but neither were efficient enough to account for the loss of 2012 star Zac Stacy. Seymour was the steadiest of the bunch, and Kimbrow still occasionally showed the four-star potential that made him one of Franklin's most high-profile early signees.

But if a youngster like redshirt freshman Ralph Webb or freshman Dallas Rivers wanted to go off in camp, he could almost certainly earn some carries. And one assumes that with a Stanford guy as head coach and a pro-style guy (former UCLA head coach Karl Dorrell) as offensive coordinator, there will be plenty of carries to go around.

There are also plenty of targets to be seized by whoever wants them. In Jordan Matthews, Jonathan Krause, and running back Wesley Tate, Vandy loses three players who accounted for two-thirds of last year's targets. Matthews was leaned on more than any receiver in the country; his target rate (his percentage of his team's overall targets) was the second-highest in FBS behind Boston College's Alex Amidon, but he was also targeted 49 more times than Amidon. In a slow, reasonably run-heavy system, Matthews had the eighth-most targets in the country. Losing him is like losing your No. 1 and No. 2 receivers. And losing Krause also means that the best change-of-pace deep threat is also gone.

Leading returning wideouts Jordan Cunningham and Kris Kentera (a converted tight end) combined for a woeful 5.1 yards per target in about three targets per game last year. Cunningham is a former four-star recruit, and two more four-star freshmen (wideout Trent Sherfield and tight end Mitch Parsons) enter the mix this fall.

But it's certainly safe to say that any and all candidates are welcome to step forward and earn playing time, especially if Stanford head coach David Shaw's "if you practice well, you see the field, even if you're on the third string" ethos rubbed off on Mason (as it appears to have).

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	90	2.76	2.7	36.4%	75.9%	18.0%	81.2	4.8%	8.5%
Rank	101	89	112	95	22	48	94	70	88

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Wesley Johnson	LT				51	1st All-SEC
Joe Townsend	C	6'4, 312	Sr.	2 stars (5.3)	22
Jake Bernstein	LG	6'4, 306	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	20
Spencer Pulley	RG	6'4, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	17
Andrew Bridges	RT	6'6, 285	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	17
Andrew Jelks	LT	6'6, 305	So.	4 stars (5.8)	9
Chase White	LG				7
Will Holden	LG	6'7, 310	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Kevin McCoy	RG	6'5, 295	So.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Blake Fromang	RT	6'7, 295	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Barrett Gouger	C	6'4, 305	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Sean Dowling	LT	6'5, 288	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Delando Crooks	LG	6'5, 312	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Cole Hardin	RG	6'4, 305	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Bailey Granier	LT	6'6, 345	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

6. An experienced, unsuccessful line

There is instability at both quarterback and wideout this fall, but at least the line's experienced. Vandy returns five players with starting experience (87 career starts), four of whom have at least 17 career starts. This unit was great in short-yardage situations last year and kept run defenders out of the backfield for the most part.

As you see from the numbers of above, however, they did not create many second-level opportunities for their backs. Though if you watched Vandy a decent amount last year, you came away wondering if that was because of the backs or the line. (I lean toward the backs, which really isn't any more encouraging.)

Regardless, there is experience in the run game, for (mostly) better and (maybe a little) worse. And Dorrell and company will absolutely lean on the run game if they can get away with it.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.04	14	IsoPPP+	113.1	12
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.2%	74	Succ. Rt. +	94.1	82
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	33.3	7	Off. FP+	106.5	5
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	53	Redzone S&P+	105.8	39
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	34.3		ACTUAL	30.0	-4.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	23	47	82	46
RUSHING	42	88	100	70
PASSING	23	26	53	23
Standard Downs		51	79	19
Passing Downs		49	71	27

Q1 Rk	64	1st Down Rk	60
Q2 Rk	27	2nd Down Rk	68
Q3 Rk	80	3rd Down Rk	31
Q4 Rk	29

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	99.7	2.69	4.11	42.1%	70.2%	20.1%	105.4	4.0%	8.6%
Rank	61	34	123	97	84	48	50	75	29

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Walker May	DE				13	31.5	4.5%	9.0	4.0	0	1	1	0
Adam Butler	DE	6'5, 305	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	20.5	2.9%	6.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
Jared Morse	NT				13	18.5	2.6%	3.5	1.0	0	4	0	0
Barron Dixon	NT	6'4, 295	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	17.0	2.4%	4.0	2.5	0	2	0	0
Vince Taylor	NT	6'1, 310	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	14.0	2.0%	0.5	0.0	0	1	0	0
Torey Agee	DE	6'4, 280	So.	3 stars (5.5)	8	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jay Woods	DE	6'3, 280	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Nifae Lealao	NT	6'5, 314	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Sekou Clark	DE	6'3, 260	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)
Riley Tindol	DE	6'5, 275	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)

7. The predictable transition

Mason's brought Stanford ILBs coach David Kotulski with him to Nashville to serve as defensive coordinator. Kotulski has both D.C. experience (from 1990 to 2011, he was coordinator at Saint Mary's, Bucknell, Utah State, Holy Cross, and Lehigh) and, over the last two years, plenty of exposure to the Stanford 3-4 that Mason will attempt to deploy. There are some fine, defensive minds on this staff, but one figures it might take at least a year to get all the right pieces in the right places. Or, at least, enough pieces in the right places.

Vandy has seen the typical 4-3 to 3-4 position changes this offseason -- lots of defensive ends moving to OLB, defensive tackles moving to defensive end, and fat defensive tackles staying at defensive tackle. At first glance, size (often a concern when converting to a three-man line) doesn't appear to be problematic, especially if blue-chip tackle Nifae Lealao is ready to contribute right away.

But in terms of proven pieces, you've got sophomore Adam Butler (who is big and quick enough to potentially become a star at 3-4 end), nose tackles Barron Dixon and Vince Taylor, and ... that's it. Depth is an obvious concern.

With the conversion of a young set of ends into a young set of OLBs, there is quite a bit more depth and play-making potential at linebacker. Four-star junior Caleb Azubike was inconsistent as a sophomore but could thrive in the role of outside play-maker, Kyle Woestmann is a passing downs missile, and sophomore Stephen Weatherly showed pass-rushing potential in limited opportunities. Throw in pass-deflection master Darreon Herring at inside linebacker, and you could see one of the best pass-supporting linebacker units in the country here.

If the line holds up, the linebackers could be outstanding. But that's a pretty scary "if."

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Darreon Herring	ILB	6'1, 232	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	64.0	9.1%	3.0	1.5	1	10	0	0
Karl Butler	OLB				11	37.0	5.3%	9.5	1.0	0	5	0	0
Kyle Woestmann	OLB	6'3, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	29.5	4.2%	7.0	6.0	0	1	1	0
Jake Sealand	ILB	6'2, 232	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	29.0	4.1%	2.5	0.0	0	1	1	0
Caleb Azubike	OLB	6'4, 260	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	10	26.0	3.7%	10.0	4.0	0	1	0	0
Chase Garnham	ILB				6	20.5	2.9%	2.0	0.0	1	0	1	0
Ja'karri Thomas	ILB	6'1, 230	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	16.5	2.4%	2.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Stephen Weatherly	OLB	6'5, 260	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	15.0	2.1%	5.0	3.5	0	0	0	0
Kellen Williams	FB				13	14.5	2.1%	1.0	0.0	0	2	1	0
Jimmy Stewart	OLB	6'4, 232	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	12.5	1.8%	2.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Casey Hughes	OLB	6'1, 220	Sr.	2 stars (5.2)	13	12.0	1.7%	2.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Larry Franklin	OLB				12	9.5	1.4%	2.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Harding Harper	ILB	6'2, 240	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	3.5	0.5%	2.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Nigel Bowden	ILB	6'1, 245	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Jonathan Wynn	OLB	6'4, 244	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Landon Stokes	OLB	6'4, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Charles Wright	OLB	6'3, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.3)
Hawkins Mann	ILB	6'3, 230	Fr.	2 stars (5.2)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kenny Ladler	FS				13	77.0	11.0%	1	0	5	4	5	0
Javon Marshall	SS				13	63.0	9.0%	5.5	1	1	2	0	0
Andre Hal	CB				12	41.0	5.8%	6.5	0	3	15	0	1
Steven Clarke	CB				13	36.0	5.1%	0	0	1	6	0	0
Paris Head	CB	6'0, 185	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	18.5	2.6%	0	0	3	1	0	1
Andrew Williamson	FS	6'1, 208	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	15.5	2.2%	1	0	2	0	0	0
Jahmel McIntosh	SS	6'1, 205	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	13.0	1.9%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Torren McGaster	CB	6'0, 192	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	12.5	1.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darrius Sims	CB	5'9, 182	So.	3 stars (5.7)	13	9.0	1.3%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Tre Bell	CB	5'11, 172	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Jalen Banks	FS	5'11, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Ryan White	FS	5'9, 188	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Oren Burks	SS	6'3, 212	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Taurean Ferguson	CB	5'9, 185	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Emmanuel Smith	SS	6'2, 205	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Bryce Lewis	CB	6'0, 175	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)
Tre Herndon	CB	6'1, 174	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
LaDarius Wiley	CB	6'1, 195	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)
Tre Tarpley	SS	6'0, 195	Fr.	2 stars (5.4)

8. Rebuild in the back

If Vandy's linebacking corps lives up to full potential, maybe the Commodores can eke out a strong pass defense. It was a relative strength for a number of years, but a lot of the reasons -- last year's four senior starters -- are gone. Kenny Ladler was a hawk in every sense of the word (five forced fumbles, nine passes defensed), and Andre Hal was one of the best on-the-ball defenders in the country for two years. In all, last year's starters combined for 13 tackles for loss, 10 interceptions, 27 break-ups, and Ladler's five forced fumbles. That's outstanding.

Last year's staff was smart enough to give the backups playing time while redshirting five relatively exciting true freshmen; that was certainly a nice parting gift for the new staff. Sophomore corner Paris Head showed solid ball skills, safety Andrew Williamson picked off two passes in limited opportunities, and if two or three of the incoming freshmen and redshirt freshmen are ready for action, the secondary might not be a lost cause.

Still, it is going to be infinitely younger than last year's unit, and with youth come breakdowns. Expect inconsistency, even if there's upside.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Taylor Hudson	6'3, 220	Jr.	48	42.9	2	5	11	33.3%
Colby Cooke	6'3, 220	So.	14	45.1	2	6	8	100.0%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Carey Spear			73	62.7	47	3	64.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Carey Spear			48-48	11-13	84.6%	4-6	66.7%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Darrius Sims	KR	5'9, 182	So.	25	22.8	0
Brian Kimbrow	KR	5'8, 185	Jr.	12	16.0	0
Jonathan Krause	PR			18	3.6	0
Trent Pruitt	PR			5	4.8	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	30
Field Goal Efficiency	27
Punt Return Efficiency	50
Kick Return Efficiency	102
Punt Efficiency	17
Kickoff Efficiency	28
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	44

9. Good special teams a must

Stanford is 24-5 with two Pac-12 titles since Andrew Luck left Palo Alto. That's an amazing thing to say and a supreme endorsement of Mason's defense, among other things.

But it's also a sign of the power of special teams and field position; Stanford ranked eighth in Special Teams F/+ in 2012 and third in 2013. You know about Ty Montgomery and the Stanford return game, but the unit as a whole was well-rounded.

Vandy's punting game was great, and the Commodores return both punters responsible for that. Sophomore Colby Cooke was incredible late, with 12 punts for an average of 46.6 yards in the final two games. The rest of the unit is questionable, though. Carey Spear was solid in both kickoffs and field goals, and he's gone. Plus, a nondescript return game must replace both punt returners. Cooke and Hudson should mean decent field position, but Vandy might need a bit more than that.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	Temple	95
6-Sep	Ole Miss	24
13-Sep	Massachusetts	126
20-Sep	South Carolina	7
27-Sep	at Kentucky	75
4-Oct	at Georgia	10
11-Oct	Charleston Southern	NR
25-Oct	at Missouri	22
1-Nov	Old Dominion	120
8-Nov	Florida	29
22-Nov	at Mississippi State	26
29-Nov	Tennessee	55

Five-Year F/+ Rk	-1.1% (60)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	36
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	7 / 14.6
TO Luck/Game	-2.9
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	10 (6, 4)

10. Win at home

On a play-for-play basis, I'm relatively confident about Vanderbilt's defense; there will be breakdowns, and I fear the line will wear down as a game progresses. But I see potential for another top-50 unit here, and holding steady while under serious transition is never a bad thing.

The offense will hold Vandy back, perhaps significantly. The running game should be competent and semi-efficient, and I assume whoever wins the QB job will be competent as well. But this offense had three play-makers last year -- Jordan Matthews, Jordan Matthews, and Jonathan Krause -- and now has no proven big-play threats.

Vandy will have to win games with field position and defense, but a decent home slate makes a fourth consecutive bowl a possibility. All four non-conference teams are underwhelming, to put it politely (though ODU could punish a shaky, young secondary), and in Ole Miss, Florida, and Tennessee, Vandy hosts three quite beatable SEC foes. (Meanwhile, Kentucky and MSU aren't exactly out of reach on the road.)

There are enough beatable opponents here to assure six wins, which would now seem a bit disappointing at VU, but I don't see Vandy as one of the SEC's better teams.

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