The big 2014 Tennessee football guide: Following the Ole Miss model

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1. Ole Miss minus the breakthrough

It's become a rather common recipe in the SEC: new coach takes over, surprises the college football world with a great recruiting class, then waits.

In his first full year of recruiting, Ole Miss' Hugh Freeze improved the Rebels' recruiting class from 47th in 2012 (according to 247 Sports) to eighth in 2013, complete with the No. 1 player in the country, Robert Nkemdiche. Kentucky ranked 50th in 2012, then improved to 34th in Mark Stoops' abbreviated first recruiting effort, then improved to 22nd in his first full effort.

Granted, Tennessee has had a higher baseline for recruiting than either Ole Miss or Kentucky. Still, after ranking 20th in 2012 and 24th in 2013, Butch Jones' first full year of recruiting produced the No. 7 class in the country.

That Jones topped Freeze in that regard isn't surprising, considering the two schools' recruiting reputation.

But it still throws you off a little bit when you realize that Ole Miss' 2013 class was backed in part by an on-field breakthrough in 2012 -- the Rebels improved from 2-10 and 100th in the F/+ rankings to 7-6 and 40th, giving Freeze some clear "See what we're doing? Don't you want to be a part of this?" ammunition. In Jones' first year, Tennessee was ... post-Fulmer Tennessee. In three years under Derek Dooley, the Vols went 6-7, 5-7, and 5-7, and ranked 57th, 51st, and 57th. With Jones at the helm in 2013, they went 5-7 and ranked 72nd.

Granted, they weren't exactly the same UT we've come to expect lately. They were a lot younger, first of all. When quarterback Justin Worley went down, they put a true freshman in charge, throwing to a sophomore wideout and three freshmen. The secondary consisted of a freshman, two sophomores, and a junior, with quite a few freshmen and sophomores coming off of the bench.

Moreover, it did appear that the Vols might be getting somewhere before Worley went down. They had upset South Carolina and nearly taken down Georgia in October. Both their rankings and their record were dragged down when he missed the final four games of the year.

Still, signing the No. 7 class was out of character for a program that has lost either six or seven games in each of the last six seasons. It offers the Vols a chance to skip a year or so in the rebuilding process. It also raises expectations, which are always high (or at least, higher than evidence might suggest they should be) in Knoxville.

A massive rebuild on both lines will probably prevent the Vols from doing much better than 5-7 in 2014, but there is distinct reason for optimism in the future. Recruiting rankings expire, and if results don't soon follow, the recruiting will dry up. But for now, the window of opportunity appears to be more open than it has been for a while.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 5-7 | Adj. Record: 6-6 | Final F/+ Rk: 72
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Austin Peay	N/A	45-0	W	29.8 - 27.2	W
7-Sep	Western Kentucky	77	52-20	W	44.0 - 20.5	W
14-Sep	at Oregon	5	14-59	L	27.3 - 34.0	L
21-Sep	at Florida	48	17-31	L	15.6 - 31.8	L
28-Sep	South Alabama	68	31-24	W	39.0 - 20.1	W	4.4
5-Oct	Georgia	22	31-34	L	30.3 - 26.3	W	4.7
19-Oct	South Carolina	10	23-21	W	20.8 - 20.0	W	0.1
26-Oct	at Alabama	2	10-45	L	34.3 - 30.7	W	2.2
2-Nov	at Missouri	14	3-31	L	24.1 - 24.7	L	5.3
9-Nov	Auburn	4	23-55	L	25.7 - 39.1	L	-1.1
23-Nov	Vanderbilt	50	10-14	L	20.2 - 23.3	L	-2.6
30-Nov	at Kentucky	97	27-14	W	27.2 - 29.5	L	-3.2

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-6.8%	89	+1.2%	58	+0.4%	57
Points Per Game	23.8	94	29.0	79
Adj. Points Per Game	28.2	70	27.3	62

2. Keep. Worley. Healthy.

In Tuesday's Kentucky preview, I dropped a line that fits in this preview, too:

In 2014, we'll find out if the experience that so many young players got was a good, developmental thing, or whether it was more akin to a triple-A pitcher getting promoted too early and stunting growth.

Simply calling a guy up to the majors (or the starting lineup, I guess) to get experience doesn't mean he's going to get good experience. It could end up detrimental to his development if he isn't ready.

Last fall, quite a few freshmen saw beneficial playing time. Blue-chip receiver Marquez North averaged a healthy 8.1 yards per target and made some all-world catches against South Carolina and Georgia. Wideouts Josh Smith and Jason Croom had their moments, to be sure. Four-star nose guard Danny O'Brien had three tackles for loss in minimal opportunities. Freshman corner Cameron Sutton allowed some plays but made some, too (four tackles for loss, nine passes defensed). We saw enough from players like this to believe that development time in 2013 could pay off with high-level performance in 2014 and, especially, 2015.

But not all experience is good experience, and despite all of the "he's so smart, and he's such a good kid" stories we heard about freshman quarterback Joshua Dobbs, he wasn't ready to see the field. Neither was redshirt freshman Nathan Peterman, it appeared. Peterman subbed in for an injured Worley early and looked overwhelmed. And when Dobbs took over for Peterman in November, the results were less than encouraging.

Before redeeming himself against the panacea that was Kentucky's secondary, Dobbs completed 58 of 98 passes for just 8.6 yards per completion with no touchdowns and five picks. He took more sacks in 128 attempts than Worley did in 202, and his passes didn't really go anywhere. And the effects on the team were obvious.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 4 games): Tennessee 29.2, Opponent 28.4 (plus-0.8)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Tennessee 31.1, Opponent 24.3 (plus-6.8)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 29.2, Tennessee 24.3 (minus-4.9)

Now, Worley only topped a 130 passer rating once all year, and it was against Austin Peay. So it's not as if he was threatening for All-American status. And Dobbs was indeed a true freshman, going up against Alabama, Missouri, and Auburn right out of the gates. That he was able to perform against even Kentucky was a sign of resiliency, if nothing else. Still, even adjusting for opponent, and adjusting for the fact that Dobbs' mobility gave the UT run game a small boost, Tennessee was about a touchdown worse with Dobbs behind center.

There might still be some doubt about who should win the job, but with the receiving corps looking exciting (and the offensive line looking raw as hell), give me the guy who throws better and takes fewer sacks.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.08	95	IsoPPP+	99.5	65
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.7%	72	Succ. Rt. +	102.0	52
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	27.2	18	Def. FP+	103.4	21
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.6	111	Redzone S&P+	102.8	50
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	19.7		ACTUAL	24	+4.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	104	60	53	58
RUSHING	44	30	31	33
PASSING	111	92	92	95
Standard Downs		33	22	63
Passing Downs		109	112	40

Q1 Rk	66	1st Down Rk	40
Q2 Rk	42	2nd Down Rk	49
Q3 Rk	76	3rd Down Rk	87
Q4 Rk	42

3. Needing play makers

Mike Bajakian passed his first test in Knoxville. Jones' offensive coordinator of choice since their days at CMU, Bajakian was able to craft the balanced, pragmatic offense that Jones is selling to recruits, and if standard downs are any indication, he was one hell of a play-caller.

UT ranked 33rd in Standard Downs S&P+, 22nd in standard-downs efficiency. Even if the passes didn't really go anywhere (while Worley had a better per-completion rate than Dobbs, it was still only 11.4 yards per), and even if Worley's completion rate was a sketchy 56 percent overall, the Vols managed to balance run and pass and stay on schedule. They had two efficient backs in Rajion Neal and the more efficient, less explosive Marlin Lane, and they were able to matriculate well.

Tennessee's problem in 2013 was that when the Vols fell behind schedule, things came to a screeching halt. Losing ground meant end of drive. As exciting as the young receivers were, they weren't ready to beat defensive backs who knew the pass was coming, and despite one of the most experienced lines in the country, opposing pass rushers were able to get into the backfield and disrupt the progressions of whichever quarterback was behind center.

I've long called standard downs and passing downs "play-calling downs" and "play-maker downs," respectively. You need both to be successful, and UT only had one in 2013.

Thanks to experience and upside in the receiving corps, along with improved experience levels at quarterback, I could see UT's passing downs numbers improving quite a bit this fall. But graduation and early pro entry has turned a line with 184 career starts into a line with six career starts. A confused, green line is good at limiting your play-calling effectiveness.

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Justin Worley	6'4, 224	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	109	196	1239	10	8	55.6%	6	3.0%	6.0
Joshua Dobbs	6'3, 203	So.	3 stars (5.7)	72	121	695	2	6	59.5%	7	5.5%	4.9
Nathan Peterman	6'2, 225	So.	4 stars (5.8)	10	23	45	0	2	43.5%	2	8.0%	1.3

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Rajion Neal	RB				215	1124	12	5.2	5.2	38.6%
Marlin Lane	RB	5'11, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	101	534	4	5.3	3.9	45.5%
Joshua Dobbs	QB	6'3, 203	So.	3 stars (5.7)	31	258	1	8.3	7.1	58.1%
Tom Smith	RB				24	95	0	4.0	1.4	45.8%
Deanthonie Summerhill	RB	5'9, 201	Sr.	NR	20	115	0	5.8	3.6	45.0%
Pig Howard	WR	5'8, 186	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	18	93	0	5.2	4.4	50.0%
Justin Worley	QB	6'4, 224	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	84	0	6.5	3.8	61.5%
Alden Hill	RB				10	58	1	5.8	1.9	70.0%
Nathan Peterman	QB	6'2, 225	So.	4 stars (5.8)	4	6	0	1.5	3.0	25.0%
Devrin Young	RB	5'8, 178	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jalen Hurd	RB	6'3, 221	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
Derrell Scott	RB	5'11, 188	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Pig Howard	WR	5'8, 186	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	76	44	388	57.9%	23.8%	47.6%	5.1	-175	4.8	50.0
Marquez North	WR	6'4, 221	So.	4 stars (6.0)	61	38	496	62.3%	19.1%	54.5%	8.1	28	7.6	63.9
Rajion Neal	RB				34	27	108	79.4%	10.6%	43.3%	3.2	-188	2.8	13.9
Josh Smith	WR	6'1, 197	So.	3 stars (5.5)	33	12	182	36.4%	10.3%	45.8%	5.5	-20	7.3	23.4
Jason Croom	WR	6'5, 234	So.	4 stars (5.8)	31	18	269	58.1%	9.7%	57.7%	8.7	39	8.7	34.7
Brendan Downs	TE	6'5, 228	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	25	12	70	48.0%	7.8%	63.6%	2.8	-100	2.1	9.0
Johnathon Johnson	WR	5'9, 183	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	21	13	189	61.9%	6.6%	42.9%	9.0	28	10.1	24.3
Marlin Lane	RB	5'11, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	9	50	81.8%	3.4%	50.0%	4.5	-47	4.4	6.4
Cody Blanc	WR	6'3, 203	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	7	1	43	14.3%	2.2%	N/A	6.1	9	0.0	5.5
Devrin Young	RB	5'8, 178	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	6	6	79	100.0%	1.9%	80.0%	13.2	19	9.2	10.2
Jacob Carter	WR	6'0, 190	Sr.	NR	5	4	45	80.0%	1.6%	66.7%	9.0	1	10.4	5.8
Vincent Dallas	WR				5	2	14	40.0%	1.6%	50.0%	2.8	-18	3.6	1.8
A.J. Branisel	TE	6'4, 224	So.	3 stars (5.6)	3	3	28	100.0%	0.9%	100.0%	9.3	-2	8.3	3.6
Alex Ellis	TE	6'4, 240	Jr.	NR
Von Pearson	WR	6'3, 181	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)
Josh Malone	WR	6'3, 202	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)
Daniel Helm	TE	6'4, 232	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Vic Wharton	WR	5'11, 192	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

4. All eyes on the youngsters

Worley is a senior. So are backs Marlin Lane and Devrin Young and tight end Brendan Downs. There is some semblance of experience within the skill position lineup. But it's impossible not to let your eyes drift to the young guys.

First, there's Marquez North. He battled injury and freshman-quarterback-itis late in the season, but he held his own, and in UT's two best games, he was huge, making an acrobatic touchdown grab against UGA and pantsing the South Carolina secondary for a late catch. He's joined by two other sophomore wideouts (Josh Smith, Jason Croom) who combined for 30 catches and a decent per-target average of 7.0 yards.

Then, you've got the freshmen. While Tennessee's recruiting class was well-rounded, a couple of the biggest standouts came in the skills -- five-star running back Jalen Hurd, five-star receiver Josh Malone, high-four-star tight end Daniel Helm. In all, five blue-chips join the mix, and that says nothing of high-four-star JUCO wideout Von Pearson, who, along with Malone, made a quick impact this spring.

You never want to assume that five-star true freshmen will end up playing like Adrian Peterson and Sammy Watkins, though I assume UT fans wouldn't complain if Hurd and Malone did just that. But when combined with what UT returns -- North, Lane, Downs, slot receiver Pig Howard (who, for at least this exact moment, is not currently suspended) -- it's not hard to assume that either they or other four-star freshmen could quickly contribute in the roles of No. 2 RB, No. 2 or No. 3 WR, etc. And that has to be exciting for the Vols.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	109.4	3.32	3.41	44.3%	71.0%	16.6%	147.3	2.2%	6.6%
Rank	32	14	47	15	51	23	18	10	60

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Antonio Richardson	LT				24	2nd All-SEC
Ja'Wuan James	RT				49
Zach Fulton	RG				41
James Stone	C				39
Alex Bullard	LG				25
Marcus Jackson	LG	6'2, 304	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	5
Mack Crowder	C	6'2, 286	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	1
Jacob Gilliam	LT	6'4, 296	Sr.	NR	0
Kyler Kerbyson	RG	6'4, 306	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Dylan Wiesman	RG	6'3, 304	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Brett Kendrick	RT	6'6, 315	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Austin Sanders	LG	6'5, 311	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Dontavius Blair	LT	6'8, 313	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)
Coleman Thomas	RT	6'6, 311	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

5. A complete rebuild in the trenches, Part 1

Less exciting: losing five offensive linemen who had combined to start the equivalent of nearly 15 full seasons (178 career starts). Four-year starting tackle Ja'Wuan James, three-year (and then some) starting guard Zach Fulton and center James Stone, two-year starting guard Alex Bullard, and two-year starting tackle (and all-conference performer) Tiny Richardson are all gone, leaving behind junior guard Marcus Jackson, center Mack Crowder, and a whiff of new-lineman smell.

There are some upperclassmen in the mix, and one imagines that blue-chip JUCO transfer Dontavius Blair could quickly become a difference maker. So it's not as if Tennessee's starting five freshmen here. Still, going from one of the best, most experienced lines in the conference to one of the least is never easy, even when there's talent and a couple of juniors involved. This will be a weak spot for the offense, and depending on how weak, it could sabotage.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.28	112	IsoPPP+	96.1	88
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.2%	72	Succ. Rt. +	106.0	37
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	31.9	29	Off. FP+	105.5	9
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.6	98	Redzone S&P+	99.9	58
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.3		ACTUAL	25.0	+3.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	84	42	37	38
RUSHING	101	74	64	55
PASSING	27	23	14	29
Standard Downs		40	35	78
Passing Downs		59	64	68

Q1 Rk	15	1st Down Rk	10
Q2 Rk	88	2nd Down Rk	62
Q3 Rk	67	3rd Down Rk	51
Q4 Rk	4

6. Opponents knew to run

Despite a young secondary and a pass rush that could only really get anywhere on passing downs, Tennessee had a damn strong pass defense in 2013, stronger than it should have expected. Corey Miller and Marlon Walls were pass-rush-only guys at defensive end, but they were good at that, and despite youth, the athleticism in the secondary was obvious.

Unfortunately, the run defense held the Vols back. Despite loads of experience up front, and despite the presence of man-mountain Daniel McCullers at tackle, UT was 74th in Rushing S&P+ and 57th in Adj. Line Yards; the Vols were total pushovers in short-yardage situations.

This appears to be a strength-gets-stronger, weakness-gets-weaker situation for Tennessee in 2014. Last year's top five tacklers on the line are gone, as is one of two solid run-stoppers at linebacker (Dontavis Sapp). The pass rush will probably regress without Miller and Walls, but the secondary looks like one of the league's best. The progression of freshmen up front could make the difference between another decent defense and one that takes a step or two backwards.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100.6	3.25	3.12	44.2%	82.9%	17.4%	95.3	2.7%	8.5%
Rank	57	101	44	110	123	86	69	110	33

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Corey Miller	DE				12	32.0	4.9%	7.0	6.5	0	1	1	0
Daniel McCullers	DT				12	27.0	4.1%	4.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
Curt Maggitt (2012)	DE	6'3, 244	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	9	23.0	3.2%	5.0	2.0	0	1	2	0
Jacques Smith	DE				10	22.0	3.4%	2.0	0.5	1	0	0	0
Marlon Walls	DE				11	18.0	2.8%	7.5	4.5	0	1	1	0
Daniel Hood	NG				12	14.0	2.1%	2.0	0.0	1	2	1	0
Jordan Williams	DT	6'5, 272	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	13.5	2.1%	1.5	1.5	0	0	0	0
Corey Vereen	DE	6'2, 248	So.	3 stars (5.7)	9	11.0	1.7%	1.0	1.0	0	1	0	0
Danny O'Brien	NG	6'2, 281	So.	4 stars (5.8)	12	10.0	1.5%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Gregory Clark	DT				10	5.0	0.8%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Trevarris Saulsberry	DT	6'4, 297	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	4	3.5	0.5%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
LaTroy Lewis	DE	6'4, 255	So.	3 stars (5.7)	6	3.5	0.5%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kendal Vickers	DE	6'3, 254	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Owen Williams	DT	6'2, 289	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Dewayne Hendrix	DE	6'4, 273	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Joe Henderson	DE	6'4, 232	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Derek Barnett	DE	6'3, 267	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Michael Sawyers	DT	6'3, 299	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Dimarya Mixon	DT	6'3, 266	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Jakob Johnson	DE	6'4, 230	Fr.	3 stars (5.6)

7. A complete rebuild in the trenches, Part 2

The return of linebacker/DE Curt Maggitt should help, as long as he's healthy, anyway. He recorded 5.5 tackles for loss as a freshman in 2011 and five as a sophomore, but he tore his ACL late in the 2012 season, and his recovery wasn't rapid enough to get him ready for 2013. So he took a redshirt. He isn't necessarily an all-conference contender, but he's solid, and he could deflect some of the attention/expectations that will inevitably hone in on three four-star freshmen: Dewayne Hendrix, Joe Henderson, and Derek Barnett.

But even with Maggitt, this line is terribly young. Sophomores Danny O'Brien and Corey Vereen hinted at potential, but both are small for their position. There should be plenty of speed on the line, but speed doesn't necessarily help you in run support, and neither does a high level of inexperience. It's hard to see the run defense improving without McCullers and Sapp, and it's hard to see the pass rush performing as well without Miller and Walls.

Eighteenth-year senior A.J. Johnson is a beast in at middle linebacker, but he needs help, and leaning on freshmen and sophomores isn't a good way to get it.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
A.J. Johnson	MLB	6'2, 242	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	12	83.0	12.7%	8.5	0.0	0	3	0	0
Dontavis Sapp	WLB				12	49.0	7.5%	8.0	0.0	0	4	1	0
Brent Brewer	SLB				12	22.5	3.4%	2.5	0.0	2	2	1	0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	WLB	6'1, 214	So.	4 stars (5.8)	11	11.0	1.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
John Propst	MLB				12	7.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Raiques Crump	LB				9	4.5	0.7%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kenny Bynum	MLB	6'1, 234	So.	3 stars (5.6)	4	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin King	MLB	6'2, 246	So.	3 stars (5.6)
Chris Weatherd	LB	6'4, 225	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)
Dillon Bates	LB	6'3, 216	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Brian Randolph	SS	6'0, 197	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	62.5	9.5%	2.5	0	4	3	1	0
LaDarrell McNeil	FS	6'1, 204	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	12	44.5	6.8%	1	0	1	3	0	1
Justin Coleman	CB	5'10, 190	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	12	41.0	6.3%	1	0	1	7	0	0
Cameron Sutton	CB	6'1, 180	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	36.5	5.6%	4	1	2	7	0	0
JaRon Toney	NB				12	31.0	4.7%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Byron Moore	FS				12	21.0	3.2%	1	0	0	2	1	0
Devaun Swafford	SS	5'11, 184	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	14.0	2.1%	0	0	1	1	1	0
Malik Foreman	CB	5'10, 181	So.	3 stars (5.6)	9	8.0	1.2%	1	0	1	0	0	0
Max Arnold	SS	5'11, 195	Jr.	NR	7	6.0	0.9%	0.5	0	0	0	0	1
Geraldo Orta	DB	6'0, 186	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	4.5	0.7%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Lemond Johnson	FS	6'1, 196	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	2.5	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Riyahd Jones	CB	6'0, 183	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)
Todd Kelly, Jr.	DB	6'0, 191	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)
Cortez McDowell	DB	6'1, 204	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Evan Berry	DB	5'11, 195	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
D'Andre Payne	CB	5'9, 184	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Rashaan Gaulden	DB	6'1, 165	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Emmanuel Moseley	CB	5'11, 165	Fr.	3 stars (5.5)

8. The secondary will come around first

Actually, it already has. LaDarrell McNeil and Justin Coleman are two-year starters, Brian Randolph was a force in returning from a 2012 knee injury, and Cameron Sutton showed a world of potential. The depth was thinned out a bit with the loss of JaRon Toney and Byron Moore, but you can overcome that. Between some interesting sophomore backups and a two-deep's worth of incoming freshmen (including at least one with exciting, orange blood lines), the second string should be fine.

This secondary will only be as good as the front seven allows it to be, but despite what is still relative youth, I love this unit. And I'll probably love it even more in 2015.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Michael Palardy			63	44.5	6	10	33	68.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Michael Palardy			60	61.7	19	0	31.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Michael Palardy			34-35	9-10	90.0%	5-7	71.4%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Devrin Young	KR	5'8, 178	Sr.	19	25.9	0
Vincent Dallas	KR			13	22.2	0
Devrin Young	PR	5'8, 178	Sr.	8	7.9	0
Jacob Carter	PR	6'0, 190	Sr.	7	9.3	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	57
Field Goal Efficiency	22
Punt Return Efficiency	21
Kick Return Efficiency	52
Punt Efficiency	86
Kickoff Efficiency	113
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	9

9. Lose one leg, lose three legs

The loss of Michael Palardy is equivalent to the loss of an excellent place-kicker, a solid punter (albeit one who outkicked coverage at times), and a mediocre kickoffs guy. The return of return man Devrin Young is exciting, but Palardy is a lot to replace.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
31-Aug	Utah State	49
6-Sep	Arkansas State	94
13-Sep	at Oklahoma	17
27-Sep	at Georgia	10
4-Oct	Florida	29
11-Oct	Chattanooga	NR
18-Oct	at Ole Miss	24
25-Oct	Alabama	2
1-Nov	at South Carolina	7
15-Nov	Kentucky	75
22-Nov	Missouri	22
29-Nov	at Vanderbilt	61

Five-Year F/+ Rk	2.7% (51)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	11
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	1 / 1.6
TO Luck/Game	-0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	10 (5, 5)

10. September: yikes

By the time Florida visits Knoxville in October (the first time the two teams have met after September since the 9/11-postponed game of 2001, and the first intentional post-September scheduling since 1991), we'll probably know just about everything we need to know about Tennessee.

Never mind the brutal trips to Norman (which will test the hell out of the rebuilt defensive front) and Athens (which will test the hell out of the rebuilt offensive front). Let's just put it this way: when Utah State and Arkansas State fans look optimistically at their schedule, they're giving their team a pretty good shot of knocking off the Vols, and not without cause. USU has been a top-40 team each of the past two years, and ASU ranked ahead of Tennessee as recently as 2012.

I'm not saying the Vols will lose either of those games, but we'll just say that a 2-2 start should be cause for optimism, and home wins over Florida, Chattanooga, and Kentucky would then put them just one win away from their first bowl bid since, incredibly, 2010.

I wouldn't set the bar too much higher than 6-6 just yet, not with the line problems they will probably suffer this year. But when you do something you haven't done in four years, no matter how minor, that's another sign of progress. Take it, let your youngsters take their lumps, and build toward 2015. Tennessee didn't experience the on-field breakthrough that Ole Miss did in 2012, but there's still hope for future breakthroughs.

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