The big 2014 Ole Miss football guide: Time for a 3rd step forward

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Tick tock

In 2013, Ole Miss will still be a work in progress. We should keep that in mind. We're still trying to figure out the Rebels' ceiling in an environment where the No. 7 recruiting class in the country (according to Rivals) was barely third in their own division. Ole Miss will still be ridiculously young this fall -- hell, with all of the star freshmen entering the rotation, the Rebels will actually be younger than they were last year -- and that's not typically a prompt for great success.

-- 2013 Ole Miss football's 10 things to know

We tend to think of the college football success and recruiting in a linear way -- one improves, then the other improves; if one regresses, then the other regresses.

In the SEC over the last couple of seasons, the waters have gotten muddy. Tennessee went 5-7 and signed a top-10 class while Kentucky went 2-10 and signed a top-20 class. And coming off of a 2-10 season in Houston Nutt's final year in Oxford, Ole Miss hired Hugh Freeze, who was in the process of signing a top-10 class even before his first Rebels team improved to 7-6. Massive momentum plus outstanding recruiting equals even more massive momentum, right?

But after pulling in an unpredictably great class last February, things settled into a more predictable pattern. Ole Miss played a ton of young guys and improved again in 2013, which is an incredible feat in and of itself. But recruiting settled in a bit (to 15th), and after improving from 100th to 40th in the F/+ rankings, the Rebels settled in a bit on the field. The offense held steady, while a defensive step forward bumped them up to 28th overall. A late-season loss at Mississippi State tamped down some of the good feelings, but there was no mistaking that Ole Miss progressed.

So now what? The offense is in a state of flux between new and old talent -- Nutt holdovers Jeff Scott, Donte Moncrief, Ja-Mes Logan and experienced linemen are gone, while a load of four-star freshmen and sophomores jockey for roles -- and the defense could be outstanding. I don't see the stars aligning just yet, because of the O, but defense alone could make this a top-20 team. Is that enough to stand out in the absurdly loaded SEC West?

A bigger question: will the stars align? And what does that really even mean? Robert Nkemdiche, the No. 1 recruit in the 2013 class and the impetus for a lot of Ole Miss' recruiting success that year, is probably in uniform for another two seasons. With a top-10 class come top-10 expectations, but if you only sign one top-10 class and it runs out of eligibility while you're getting other affairs in order, what's fair?

Hugh Freeze has been a massive success in inheriting a mess of a program, turning it into a bowl squad overnight, and raising the bar with recruiting success. But at what point does he fail to meet the raised bar? It wouldn't be fair to expect too much in Year 3, but another seven- to eight-win season -- a distinct possibility for a team that is top-20 caliber in the SEC West -- would increase the pressure for Year 4. It's an odd situation, increasing expectations to the point at which it backfires, but here we are.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 8-5 | Adj. Record: 10-3 | Final F/+ Rk: 28
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	at Vanderbilt	50	39-35	W	36.9 - 32.9	W
7-Sep	SE Missouri State	N/A	31-13	W	21.5 - 41.3	L
14-Sep	at Texas	35	44-23	W	39.9 - 23.7	W
28-Sep	at Alabama	2	0-25	L	18.5 - 19.7	L
5-Oct	at Auburn	4	22-30	L	21.1 - 20.3	W	0.0
12-Oct	Texas A&M	23	38-41	L	28.4 - 27.7	W	-0.7
19-Oct	LSU	17	27-24	W	38.1 - 24.6	W	6.0
26-Oct	Idaho	116	59-14	W	33.7 - 22.0	W	5.1
9-Nov	Arkansas	87	34-24	W	31.9 - 29.7	W	5.8
16-Nov	Troy	105	51-21	W	37.3 - 23.2	W	8.4
23-Nov	Missouri	14	10-24	L	26.6 - 27.8	L	8.1
28-Nov	at Mississippi State	33	10-17	L	20.4 - 14.9	W	6.5
30-Dec	vs. Georgia Tech	34	25-17	W	32.3 - 18.6	W	6.9

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+5.3%	41	+12.0%	20	-1.2%	92
Points Per Game	30.0	56	23.7	37
Adj. Points Per Game	29.7	55	25.1	37

2. Average, then good

As might be expected when playing so many freshmen and tweaking the rotation from week to week, Ole Miss had to ease into playing good ball in 2013. The Rebels pulled off a thrilling opening-night win over Vanderbilt and soundly defeated Texas, both on the road; no complaints there.

But the offense and defense struggled to play well simultaneously. The defense got wrecked by Jordan Matthews at Vandy, and the offense laid eggs against both Alabama and Auburn.

Inconsistency combined with a three-game losing streak (all to top-25 teams) can spell doom for a young team, but to the Rebels' credit, they rallied. Starting with the upset of LSU on October 19, the Rebs became a more consistent, awfully good team.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 6 games): Ole Miss 27.7, Opponent 27.6 (plus-0.1)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 7 games): Ole Miss 31.5, Opponent 23.0 (plus-8.5)

The offense trailed off at the end of the regular season, but this was still what you would hope to see from a young team: battle-tested improvement over the second half of the year. The baseline after the bowl game was higher than the baseline at midseason.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.18	46	IsoPPP+	102.4	48
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.5%	53	Succ. Rt. +	100.3	61
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.0	70	Def. FP+	101.4	41
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.2	76	Redzone S&P+	106.7	37
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	26.6		ACTUAL	21	-5.6

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	21	54	62	30
RUSHING	42	55	50	40
PASSING	23	50	64	32
Standard Downs		77	81	93
Passing Downs		23	34	17

Q1 Rk	47	1st Down Rk	106
Q2 Rk	81	2nd Down Rk	15
Q3 Rk	31	3rd Down Rk	55
Q4 Rk	75

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Bo Wallace

6'4, 217

Sr.

3 stars (5.6)

283

437

3346

18

10

64.8%

24

5.2%

6.9

Barry Brunetti

23

41

294

6

0

56.1%

2

4.7%

6.5

Ryan Buchanan

6'3, 208

RSFr.

4 stars (5.8)

DeVante Kincade

6'0, 202

RSFr.

3 stars (5.7)

Kendrick Doss

6'0, 211

Fr.

3 stars (5.7)

3. Dr. Bo approaches retirement

Even after two years of Bo Wallace as Ole Miss' starting quarterback, it's hard to figure out what the Rebels have. At his best, he is a crippling dual-threat. In the bowl win over Georgia Tech, he completed two thirds of his passes for 256 yards while rushing 11 times (not including sacks) for 95 yards. And against a wretched Troy defense, he averaged 10.5 yards per pass attempt and 7.3 yards per carry.

At his worst, he is a liability, flustered and careless with the ball. Against Mississippi State, his 26 completions gained just 182 yards, and he threw three interceptions, took two sacks, and lost a fumble on the final play.

In 13 games in 2013, Wallace produced an average passer rating of 138.1. But only once all season did he actually come within 10 points of his season average (he was at 140.0 in the bowl game). He was at 151.4 or higher seven times and at 116.5 or lower five times.

He has the tendency of collecting injuries as the season rolls on, which doesn't help. But if he is a steady force this fall, even with a lower ceiling, that could do wonders for Ole Miss' overall consistency.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Jaylen Walton	RB	5'8, 166	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	113	531	6	4.7	4.9	31.9%
Bo Wallace	QB	6'4, 217	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	107	509	6	4.8	4.2	38.3%
I'Tavius Mathers	RB	5'11, 190	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	96	564	3	5.9	6.4	40.6%
Jeff Scott	RB				67	493	2	7.4	6.2	55.2%
Barry Brunetti	QB				58	326	4	5.6	5.5	41.4%
Mark Dodson	RB	5'10, 198	So.	4 stars (5.9)	22	124	1	5.6	3.9	50.0%
Kailo Moore	RB				18	72	0	4.0	6.1	27.8%
Jimmy Potepa	RB	5'8, 200	Jr.	NR	5	15	0	3.0	1.0	40.0%
Robert Nkemdiche	DE	6'4, 280	So.	5 stars (6.1)	5	32	0	6.4	5.4	60.0%
Jordan Wilkins	RB	6'1, 201	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Akeem Judd	RB	6'0, 220	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
D.K. Buford	RB	5'11, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Donte Moncrief	WR				112	59	938	52.7%	24.7%	50.5%	8.4	143	8.2	117.9
Laquon Treadwell	WR	6'2, 229	So.	5 stars (6.1)	97	72	608	74.2%	21.4%	72.6%	6.3	-205	6.4	76.4
Ja-Mes Logan	WR				59	44	583	74.6%	13.0%	49.2%	9.9	87	9.9	73.3
Jaylen Walton	RB	5'8, 166	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	35	27	306	77.1%	7.7%	33.3%	8.7	6	8.1	38.4
Vince Sanders	WR	6'1, 185	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	30	21	325	70.0%	6.6%	43.3%	10.8	81	10.9	40.8
Evan Engram	TE	6'3, 217	So.	3 stars (5.6)	29	21	268	72.4%	6.4%	51.7%	9.2	28	9.4	33.7
Jordan Holder	WR				22	15	128	68.2%	4.8%	50.0%	5.8	-49	5.5	16.1
Jeff Scott	RB				19	16	107	84.2%	4.2%	52.6%	5.6	-64	5.7	13.4
I'Tavius Mathers	RB	5'11, 190	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	15	11	90	73.3%	3.3%	60.0%	6.0	-35	6.3	11.3
Quincy Adeboyejo	SLOT	6'3, 189	So.	4 stars (5.8)	13	7	81	53.8%	2.9%	80.0%	6.2	-12	4.7	10.2
Collins Moore	WR	6'1, 201	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	10	5	67	50.0%	2.2%	N/A	6.7	-2	0.0	8.4
Cody Core	WR	6'3, 196	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)	5	4	91	80.0%	1.1%	100.0%	18.2	47	15.3	11.4
Nicholas Parker	TE	6'0, 250	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	3	2	11	66.7%	0.7%	66.7%	3.7	-13	4.4	1.4
Channing Ward	TE	6'4, 274	Jr.	4 stars (6.0)
Quintavius Burdette	SLOT	5'11, 186	Jr.	2 stars (5.2)
Jeremy Liggins	TE	6'3, 296	So.	3 stars (5.7)
Markell Pack	WR	6'3, 181	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Sammie Epps	TE	6'5, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

4. Replacing the passing-downs masters

Ole Miss' passing game on standard and passing downs was drastically different. On standard downs, the Rebels attempted strength and balance, rushing frequently and throwing to big five-star freshman Laquon Treadwell, whose standard-downs target rate was a lofty 30 percent.

This wasn't particularly effective. The run game was only decent, and despite his blue-chip status, Treadwell was basically a tight end, with an 81 percent standard-downs catch rate and a mild per-catch average of 7.6 yards.

That resulted in quite a few passing downs. And on passing downs, Ole Miss was awesome.

The Rebs went pass-heavy, which put a lot of pressure on Wallace, and it paid off frequently. With Treadwell relegated to the No. 3 option, just ahead of running back Jaylen Walton, Wallace fired downfield to Donte Moncrief and Ja-Mes Logan, who responded by combining to average 17.6 yards per catch and 10.5 yards per target.

Ole Miss' passing game was actually better when opponents expected the Rebels to pass. It's not supposed to work that way, and it's alarming for 2014. Treadwell's back, but Moncrief and Logan are not. The Rebels do have a big-play holdover in senior Vince Sanders, who caught 15 of 17 passing-downs passes for 183 yards; he was a big part of the 2012 offense before breaking his collarbone and missing most of the first month of 2013. If he shines again, that could take pressure off of both Wallace and Treadwell.

It's unclear if the running game will be any better, though. Jaylen Walton is an unspectacular No. 1 back, and I'Tavius Mathers hasn't been able to stay on the field despite strong averages (that usually means he either stinks in practice or stinks at pass protection). Between those two juniors, four-star sophomore Mark Dodson, JUCO transfer Akeem Judd, and incoming freshman D.K. Buford, Ole Miss has options. It's unclear if any of them are A-grade options.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	103.3	3.17	3.36	40.2%	66.1%	17.7%	116.1	2.8%	7.4%
Rank	51	29	53	58	76	43	50	20	74

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Evan Swindall	C				35
Pierce Burton	RT				26
Aaron Morris	LG	6'5, 345	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	20
Jared Duke	LG				17
Emmanuel McCray	LT				16
Justin Bell	RG	6'2, 352	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13
Patrick Junen	LG				11
Laremy Tunsil	LT	6'5, 305	So.	5 stars (6.1)	10
Carlton Martin	LG	6'1, 296	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0
Ben Still	C	6'3, 298	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Robert Conyers	RT	6'5, 295	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Daronte Bouldin	RG	6'6, 330	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Davion Johnson	RT	6'4, 332	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Fahn Cooper	OL	6'5, 312	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Craig Frigo	LG	6'4, 301	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)
Talbot Buys	LT	6'8, 306	So.	NR
Rod Taylor	OL	6'3, 320	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)

5. Younger and better?

You know something went wrong when you end up starting eight linemen in a season, with two returning starters combining for just five starts. That either means injuries or shuffling related to ineffective play.

For Ole Miss, it was a bit of both; guard Aaron Morris tore his ACL in August, and left tackle Emmanuel McCray was usurped by ace freshman Laremy Tunsil after three games. The result is a confusing mix of experience and inexperience: Ole Miss returns three players who have started at least 10 career games (including Tunsil) but replace five who had started at least 11.

With simple stability and continuity, Ole Miss' line stats should improve. Tunsil gives the Rebels plenty of upside, as does a healthy Morris. And even though Wallace will always be a bit sack-prone behind center (play-making ability usually comes with a price in that regard), it wouldn't surprise me if Ole Miss finished 2014 in at least the top 40 in both Adj. Line Yards and Adj. Sack Rate after hovering around 50th in both last fall.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.05	20	IsoPPP+	114.1	10
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.2%	72	Succ. Rt. +	107.6	34
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.6	113	Off. FP+	95.4	109
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	52	Redzone S&P+	99.2	63
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	21.3		ACTUAL	22.0	+0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	38	18	34	17
RUSHING	52	14	30	16
PASSING	36	27	47	46
Standard Downs		17	34	8
Passing Downs		22	43	16

Q1 Rk	31	1st Down Rk	24
Q2 Rk	10	2nd Down Rk	35
Q3 Rk	35	3rd Down Rk	8
Q4 Rk	42

6. The defense got a step ahead

The Ole Miss offense graded out alright overall, but the defense made significant, sustainable advances in 2013.

Defensive coordinator Dave Wommack employs what could be considered a risky 4-2-5 alignment -- with a 4-2-5, there's a lot of pressure on the line to play really well and allow the back seven to take advantage of its sacrifice of size for speed. If you're getting pushed around up front, things go sour more quickly in this alignment than others, but if you've got a strong line, the defense is set up for success.

("If you've got a strong line, the defense is set up for success." That's something you could say about any formation, yes. But go with me here.)

Well, Ole Miss had a very good line in 2013, at least as it pertained to run defense. The Rebels didn't generate much of a pass rush, but you can overcome that to a degree with speed and coverage ability. But even despite injuries -- all-world freshman Robert Nkemdiche missed two games, end C.J. Johnson missed nine, tackle Bryon Bennett missed two, tackle Lavon Hooks missed one, end Carlos Thompson missed eight -- Ole Miss was a brick wall against the run. Force teams to pass into the teeth of a permanent nickel defense, and you're going to find success.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	123.8	2.67	3.01	36.5%	75.6%	21.8%	79.2	4.6%	3.8%
Rank	6	30	31	38	103	30	102	56	115

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cameron Whigham	DE				13	29.5	4.1%	4.5	2.5	0	1	1	0
Robert Nkemdiche	DT	6'4, 280	So.	5 stars (6.1)	11	29.5	4.1%	8.0	2.0	0	2	0	0
Issac Gross	NT	6'1, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	26.5	3.6%	9.0	3.5	0	1	0	0
Woodrow Hamilton	NT	6'3, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	23.5	3.2%	1.5	1.0	0	1	0	0
Channing Ward	DE				13	18.5	2.5%	2.0	1.0	0	0	2	0
C.J. Johnson	DE	6'2, 225	Sr.	5 stars (6.1)	4	9.0	1.2%	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bryon Bennett	DT	6'2, 293	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	11	7.0	1.0%	2.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Lavon Hooks	DT	6'3, 318	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)	12	7.0	1.0%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Carlos Thompson	DE	6'5, 243	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	5	4.5	0.6%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
John Youngblood	DE	6'3, 246	So.	2 stars (5.4)	12	3.0	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Carlton Martin	DT				10	2.0	0.3%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Fadol Brown	DE	6'4, 280	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Garrald McDowell	DE	6'2, 245	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Breeland Speaks	DT	6'4, 310	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Marquis Haynes	DE	6'3, 220	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Chris Williams	DT	6'1, 287	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

7. Immovable

Freeze came to prominence because of his offensive mind, but in two years his defense has stolen the show in Oxford, partially because of who Houston Nutt was able to attract, and partially because his own recruiting has been heavy on stud defensive linemen.

Nkemdiche was obviously the biggest get, but he has also landed four-star end Channing Ward (part of the abbreviated 2012 class), high-three-star tackle Issac Gross (2012), four-star JUCO tackle Lavon Hooks (2013), four-star end Breeland Sparks (2014), and four-star tackle Garrald McDowell (2014).

Combined with what he inherited, his line is absolutely loaded with both heralded signees and proven studs. And despite a general lack of SEC-prototype beef, his line was superb against the run. Part of that had to do with big Mike Marry at middle linebacker, but a lot had to do with returnees like Nkemdiche, Gross, and Woodrow Hamilton. Even without Marry, there's really no reason to think Ole Miss will be more movable in 2014 than it was in 2013.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Serderius Bryant	OLB	5'9, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	65.0	8.9%	12.5	2.0	0	1	3	0
Mike Marry	MLB				13	41.5	5.7%	4.5	1.0	0	1	3	0
D.T. Shackelford	MLB	6'1, 247	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	32.5	4.5%	7.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Denzel Nkemdiche	OLB	5'11, 212	Jr.	NR	10	26.0	3.6%	2.0	0.0	0	0	1	1
Keith Lewis	OLB	6'0, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	19.0	2.6%	3.0	0.0	1	1	0	0
Temario Strong	MLB	6'0, 233	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	7.5	1.0%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Will Martin	LB				13	1.5	0.2%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Christian Russell	MLB	6'0, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
DeMarquis Gates	LB	6'2, 211	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cody Prewitt	FS	6'2, 217	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	60.5	8.3%	4.5	0	6	7	2	0
Tony Conner	NB	6'0, 217	So.	4 stars (6.0)	13	52.5	7.2%	5	1	1	6	0	0
Trae Elston	ROV	6'0, 195	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	52.0	7.1%	2	0	0	6	1	0
Mike Hilton	CB	5'9, 182	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	44.5	6.1%	5.5	0	1	4	1	0
Senquez Golson	CB	5'9, 176	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	36.0	4.9%	2.5	0	2	3	0	0
Chief Brown	ROV	6'1, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	28.5	3.9%	0	0	1	0	0	0
Derrick Jones	CB	6'2, 182	So.	3 stars (5.7)	9	23.5	3.2%	1	0	0	2	0	0
Dehendret Collins	NB				13	18.0	2.5%	0.5	0	0	2	0	1
Carlos Davis	CB	5'8, 171	Jr.	2 stars (5.3)	7	12.0	1.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Charles Sawyer	CB				7	10.0	1.4%	0	0	1	1	0	0
Cliff Coleman	CB	5'10, 186	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	7.0	1.0%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Quintavius Burdette	CB				12	3.0	0.4%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ontario Berry	DB				12	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Standifer	DB				3	2.5	0.3%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kailo Moore	CB	5'10, 188	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Anthony Alford	ROV	6'1, 212	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Tee Shepard	DB	6'1, 195	So.	4 stars (5.8)
C.J. Hampton	FS	6'0, 192	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

8. A great secondary is experienced now

Ole Miss ranked 14th in Rushing S&P+, in part, because of the defensive line. And with a shaky pass rush, the Rebels ranked 27th in Passing S&P+ despite the line.

The Rebels were deep and aggressive in the secondary. DB depth is another requirement of a 4-2-5, but the play-making was a bonus. Ole Miss had 11 defensive backs with at least seven tackles, five with at least two tackles for loss, and five with at least five passes defensed. And backup nickel back Dehendret Collins is basically the biggest loss.

Even with Denzel Nkemdiche struggling through a disappointing 2013 season after his breakthrough 2012 (one that didn't hurt Ole Miss' chances of landing his little/big brother Robert), the Rebels had more than enough speed to go around. Serderius Bryant erupted in Nkemdiche's OLB role, corner Mike Hilton and Senquez Golden combined eight tackles for loss with 10 passes defensed, and big safeties Cody Prewitt and Tony Conner prowled.

This was an excellent secondary, and there's no reason it won't get even better, especially considering the four-star freshmen and sophomores just waiting their turn if somebody gets hurt. The whole two-deep is loaded with either proven play-makers or high-profile youngsters hoping for a shot.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Campbell			51	44.4	10	10	17	52.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Andrew Ritter			78	63.8	45	2	57.7%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Andrew Ritter			42-45	9-14	64.3%	7-10	70.0%
Andrew Fletcher	5'8, 180	Sr.	2-2	0-0	N/A	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jaylen Walton	KR	5'8, 166	Jr.	25	20.6	0
Kailo Moore	KR	5'10, 188	So.	5	20.0	0
Jeff Scott	PR			7	12.7	1
Jordan Holder	PR			5	4.2	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	92
Field Goal Efficiency	81
Punt Return Efficiency	93
Kick Return Efficiency	91
Punt Efficiency	61
Kickoff Efficiency	51
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	102

9. A (needed) special teams reset

Just about everything has changed since Freeze took over. An offense that ranked 110th in Off. F/+ in 2011 has finished 41st or better two years in a row, a defense that ranked 78th is a legitimate top-20 unit and rising ... and a special teams unit that ranked 13th in 2011 has ranked 92nd or worse for two straight years.

Ole Miss wasn't a very good field position team in 2013, in large part because its kicks and punts were average and its returns were far below average. Field goals were subpar as well. In 2014, two unsuccessful kick returners are back, but all of the other primary roles will be filled by different players. That doesn't mean improvement is impending -- far from it. But if you're going to hit reset on special teams, there's not a lot of fear in doing it when the unit wasn't very good.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	vs. Boise State	23
6-Sep	at Vanderbilt	61
13-Sep	UL-Lafayette	84
27-Sep	Memphis	90
4-Oct	Alabama	2
11-Oct	at Texas A&M	11
18-Oct	Tennessee	55
25-Oct	at LSU	12
1-Nov	Auburn	8
8-Nov	Presbyterian	NR
22-Nov	at Arkansas	53
29-Nov	Mississippi State	26

Five-Year F/+ Rk	5.2% (46)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	12
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	1 / -5.3
TO Luck/Game	+2.4
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (5, 9)

10. Fast start, fast finish

Ole Miss' first four games come against three teams projected 61st or worse and a Boise State team that is probably over-projected at 23rd. Two of the last three games come against teams projected 53rd or worse. If the Rebels are indeed a top-25 team in 2014, as both the numbers and I expect, this should give them six wins as a starting point. Throw in home wins over Tennessee (probable) and Mississippi State (not as likely, but still likely), and that's eight wins.

The season, then, will get defined by the other four: visits to Texas A&M and LSU and visits from Alabama and Auburn. A top-25 team could go 0-4 in those games.

I really, really like the Ole Miss defense. I love that the Rebels do something a little bit different in their alignment, and I love that it works. They will have one of the better defenses in the country's best defensive conference. But you've got to be great on both sides of the ball to move too far up the SEC West ladder (or, in Auburn's case last year, you have to be good on one side and transcendent on the other), and I don't trust the offense enough to predict that.

Nine wins are on the table, whether via an 8-4 finish and a win in a decent bowl or otherwise.

Again, with great recruiting come great expectations, and maybe a nine-win seasons would be a bit disappointing in Oxford. But it shouldn't be. This team has risen quickly and is still rising, and after a third straight step forward, the Rebs might be in position to take a fourth step in 2015.

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