The big 2014 South Carolina football guide: Spurrier knows his team is loaded

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Experience vs. star power

Your chosen SEC East winner says a lot about you. If you select Georgia, you value star power and high ceilings; you see Todd Gurley blazing downfield and a front seven with Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins making enough plays to counteract a (better-coached) young secondary.

If you select South Carolina, you're all about depth, experience, and high floors over upside. The Gamecocks must replace Connor Shaw, Bruce Ellington, Jadeveon Clowney, and Kelcy Quarles -- a.k.a. four of their five best players from last year -- but return virtually everybody else of consequence: the top three running backs, every receiving target other than Ellington, seven offensive linemen with starting experience, every linebacker, four of the top six defensive backs, and virtually the team's entire second string from 2013.

(South Carolina also gets Georgia at home, which could further tip the scales.)

Running back Mike Davis does give South Carolina one household name (or at least, it would be a household name if it weren't "Mike Davis"), but for the most part South Carolina is going with quantity over individual quality. And honestly, it'll probably work.

2. Cocksure

He's been awful quiet. That means he must think they're pretty good. We're going to have our work cut out for us going there the first game.

Granted, Steve Spurrier hasn't been that quiet this offseason -- he's found time to throw plenty of smirking jabs at Clemson's Dabo Swinney, Alabama's Nick Saban, A&M's Kevin Sumlin, etc. -- but Sumlin said what a lot of people have been thinking: Spurrier knows his team's pretty loaded.

His offense has a question mark at quarterback, where Dylan Thompson was decent in filling in for frequently injured Connor Shaw through the years but didn't inspire "that guy might win the SEC one day" confidence. He needs to unearth some new play-makers at defensive end and corner pretty quickly. Still, those and a perpetually shaky special teams unit are the only question marks, and while those issues might prevent the 'Cocks from becoming a national title contender, the list of problems isn't any longer than Georgia's.

Georgia has the same quarterback narrative -- only, Thompson has thrown more often and effectively than Hutson Mason through the years. And in Mike Davis, South Carolina has a junior running back only slightly less proven (but more durable) than Todd Gurley. Bruce Ellington is gone, but back are nine players who averaged 8.1 yards per passing target. The offensive line is enormous, physical, and experienced. The linebackers survived as freshmen and sophomores last year and are ready to thrive. The safeties are deep and experienced. And special teams at least isn't going to be any worse, I think.

South Carolina ranked 10th in the F/+ rankings last year and has been 14th or better in three of the last four years. It feels strange talking about a potential breakthrough after the program's best-ever defensive end and maybe quarterback both walked out the door. But depth can cure what ails you, and South Carolina's got a ton of it.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 11-2 | Adj. Record: 13-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 10
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
29-Aug	North Carolina	38	27-10	W	39.6 - 13.6	W
7-Sep	at Georgia	22	30-41	L	41.5 - 31.0	W
14-Sep	Vanderbilt	50	35-25	W	43.4 - 26.0	W
28-Sep	at Central Florida	21	28-25	W	37.5 - 29.4	W
5-Oct	Kentucky	97	35-28	W	37.1 - 34.1	W	13.0
12-Oct	at Arkansas	87	52-7	W	33.1 - 30.0	W	8.4
19-Oct	at Tennessee	72	21-23	L	22.8 - 21.3	W	6.6
26-Oct	at Missouri	14	27-24	W	31.7 - 18.2	W	5.8
2-Nov	Mississippi State	33	34-16	W	30.7 - 25.7	W	5.2
16-Nov	Florida	48	19-14	W	27.9 - 26.3	W	5.0
23-Nov	Coastal Carolina	N/A	70-10	W	48.9 - 26.5	W	8.8
30-Nov	Clemson	16	31-17	W	27.5 - 25.9	W	8.8
1-Jan	vs. Wisconsin	19	34-24	W	52.4 - 23.1	W	12.0

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+20.2%	5	+12.9%	16	-3.3%	114
Points Per Game	34.1	32	20.3	12
Adj. Points Per Game	36.5	15	25.5	42

3. The dreaded mid-season blip

Twelve to 14 weeks is a long time. Even some of the best teams in the country have to fight their way throughs a slight funk or two through the course of a season. For South Carolina, that blip began with a trip to Orlando and ended with a trip to Knoxville. The Gamecocks almost survived it without permanent damage, but in the end an upset loss to Tennessee cost them a spot in the SEC Championship game.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): S.C. 41.5, Opponent 23.5 (plus-18.0)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): S.C. 32.6, Opponent 28.7 (plus-3.9)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 6 games): S.C. 36.5, Opponent 24.3 (plus-12.2)f

Connor Shaw, who was rarely full-strength during his successful career, suffered injuries against both UCF and Tennessee (and missed a portion of the Missouri game as well), and the South Carolina offense went from great to good when he was struggling. But the defense also suffered a brief dip in form around that time, and it was just enough to get upset.

Down the stretch, the Gamecocks rebounded a bit. They handed Missouri its only regular season loss, and while they weren't amazing in wins over Mississippi State and Florida, they got the job done. Then they finished an 11-2 campaign with a win over Clemson and a phenomenal showing against a good Wisconsin team in the bowl, and they nabbed a top-five poll finish and a program-high No. 10 F/+ ranking.

(F/+ only goes back to 2005, so that's not necessarily saying, "THIS WAS THE BEST SOUTH CAROLINA TEAM EVER". Then again, it really might have been.)

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.22	29	IsoPPP+	109.2	23
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	46.4%	29	Succ. Rt. +	116.0	16
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.8	89	Def. FP+	101.4	41
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.0	8	Redzone S&P+	112.6	22
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.3		ACTUAL	17	+0.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	36	14	16	14
RUSHING	31	47	38	22
PASSING	40	6	5	21
Standard Downs		17	21	24
Passing Downs		15	16	35

Q1 Rk	13	1st Down Rk	11
Q2 Rk	18	2nd Down Rk	22
Q3 Rk	6	3rd Down Rk	18
Q4 Rk	26

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Connor Shaw				180	284	2447	24	1	63.4%	20	6.6%	7.6
Dylan Thompson	6'3, 218	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	52	89	783	4	3	58.4%	3	3.3%	8.3
Connor Mitch	6'3, 227	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)

4. Life without the efficiency masters

South Carolina had some big-play ability on offense. Mike Davis had 29 rushes of 10+ yards, Bruce Ellington averaged 15.8 yards per catch, Damiere Byrd averaged 14.7, and Shaq Roland averaged 18.2. And while his completion rate was lower than Connor Shaw's and his interception rate was higher, Dylan Thompson did average 15.1 yards per completion, a very high average for anyone with a better than 50 percent completion rate.

So yeah, the big plays were there. But efficiency was still the primary strength of the Gamecocks' offense; they stayed on schedule, avoided turnovers (Shaw's one interception in 284 passes is absurd), and finished drives.

Much of the efficiency was derived from the pass (fifth in Passing Success Rate+, 38th in Rushing Success Rate+). And much of that was due to Shaw-to-Ellington. Of the 47 players with at least 60 targets and a catch rate of 70 percent or better, only eight averaged better than 15.5 yards per catch, and only four were their team's No. 1 targets (likely getting covered by No. 1 cornerbacks): Kansas State's Tyler Lockett, San Jose State's Chandler Jones, Illinois' Steve Hull (the exception that proves the rule, I guess), and Ellington. Ellington was a rare weapon, and it hurts losing him and Shaw. However...

...when that's all you lose, you can overcome it. Thompson at least took fewer sacks than Shaw, and while his completion rate was lower, it was only five percent lower in 2013. (It was 15 points lower in 2012, so ... progress!)

Thompson has plenty of potential in 2014, but the biggest problem he had in 2013 was that he was a completely different quarterback from week to week. Against Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Coastal Carolina, he was 19-for-25 (78 percent) for 253 yards, three touchdowns, and one pick. Against UCF and Missouri he was 30-for-59 for 483 yards, no scores, and two interceptions. It was the same story in 2012: 9-for-23 against Florida and Arkansas, 30-for-51 against Clemson and Michigan.

Shaw-esque one week, terribly all-or-nothing the next. If Thompson can find a level of steadiness, he'll be just fine, especially considering that Byrd, Nick Jones, Shaq Roland, and Rory Anderson are back and Mike Davis is one of the two or three best out-of-the-backfield pass-catchers in college football.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Mike Davis	RB	5'9, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	203	1183	11	5.8	6.3	40.4%
Connor Shaw	QB				134	690	6	5.1	4.0	44.0%
Shon Carson	RB	5'8, 219	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	61	256	1	4.2	4.4	27.9%
Brandon Wilds	RB	6'2, 223	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	43	221	3	5.1	2.9	46.5%
Pharoh Cooper	WR	5'11, 184	So.	4 stars (5.8)	20	202	1	10.1	11.7	50.0%
Jamari Smith	CB	5'10, 183	So.	3 stars (5.7)	14	108	1	7.7	12.1	35.7%
Dylan Thompson	QB	6'3, 218	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	51	3	3.9	2.3	38.5%
David Williams	RB	6'1, 200	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)

5. Built for a beating

Granted, he slowed down at the end of the season, sitting out the Coastal Carolina game and gaining just 71 yards in 24 carries against Clemson and Wisconsin, but Davis both issued and received beatings. Combining rushes and targets, he was the recipient of 20.4 intended touches per game and gained 6.2 yards per intended touch and 127.1 yards per game. He's short but sturdy, and while his running style ensures that he will get banged up along the way, he's a human Success Rate, Ellington or no Ellington.

He's got help, too; Shon Carson and Brandon Wilds are good for eight to 10 carries per game, and redshirt freshman David Williams should factor in as well. Even if Thompson isn't as reliable as Shaw, he's got a wealth of weapons around him, and the most important one will be lining up next to him.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Bruce Ellington	WR				70	49	775	70.0%	18.9%	51.5%	11.1	206	11.5	139.1
Damiere Byrd	WR	5'9, 166	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	61	33	575	54.1%	16.5%	60.3%	9.4	137	9.8	103.2
Nick Jones	WR	5'7, 174	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	43	27	281	62.8%	11.6%	57.1%	6.5	-50	6.7	50.4
Mike Davis	RB	5'9, 215	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	42	34	342	81.0%	11.4%	43.9%	8.1	-27	7.9	61.4
Shaq Roland	WR	6'1, 190	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	40	25	455	62.5%	10.8%	68.4%	11.4	148	11.2	81.6
Rory Anderson	TE	6'5, 242	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	39	17	245	43.6%	10.5%	39.5%	6.3	-10	5.9	44.0
Jerell Adams	TE	6'6, 237	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	18	13	187	72.2%	4.9%	53.3%	10.4	38	10.7	33.6
Brandon Wilds	RB	6'2, 223	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	14	9	119	64.3%	3.8%	69.2%	8.5	10	9.3	21.4
Shamier Jeffery	WR	6'1, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	11	6	32	54.5%	3.0%	50.0%	2.9	-47	1.6	5.7
Kane Whitehurst	WR	5'11, 179	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	6	4	66	66.7%	1.6%	100.0%	11.0	18	5.4	11.8
Shon Carson	RB	5'8, 219	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	6	5	59	83.3%	1.6%	60.0%	9.8	5	9.5	10.6
Pharoh Cooper	WR	5'11, 184	So.	4 stars (5.8)	5	3	54	60.0%	1.4%	100.0%	10.8	16	3.3	9.7
Kwinton Smith	WR	6'4, 212	So.	3 stars (5.7)	5	5	42	100.0%	1.4%	100.0%	8.4	-8	4.4	7.5
K.J. Brent	WR	6'4, 188	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	2	2	13	100.0%	0.5%	100.0%	6.5	-7	5.0	2.3
Kevin Crosby	TE	6'1, 230	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Terry Googer	WR	6'4, 210	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Tyshun Samuel	WR	6'0, 192	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Shaq Davidson	WR	5'11, 170	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	107.7	3.09	3.27	40.8%	66.7%	16.9%	111.2	5.5%	6.1%
Rank	37	46	63	50	71	35	55	87	53

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
A.J. Cann	LG	6'4, 311	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	38
Ronald Patrick	RG				25
Brandon Shell	RT	6'6, 333	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	23
Corey Robinson	LT	6'8, 344	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	22
Mike Matulis	RG	6'5, 307	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	10
Clayton Stadnik	C	6'3, 273	So.	3 stars (5.5)	7
Cody Waldrop	C	6'2, 309	So.	3 stars (5.7)	6
Mason Zandi	LT	6'9, 301	So.	2 stars (5.4)	1
Brock Stadnik	LG	6'5, 294	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0
Will Sport	RG	6'5, 301	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	0
Cody Gibson	RT	6'7, 288	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
D.J. Park	RG	6'4, 334	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Na'Ty Rodgers	RT	6'5, 296	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Alan Knott	C	6'4, 272	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Donell Stanley	OL	6'4, 346	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Malik Young	OL	6'3, 318	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

6. Stats vs. eyeballs

If you pass the eyeball test, and the guy you're blocking for is doing well, we just pretty much assume that you're a pretty good offensive line. Well, Mike Davis thrived, and the S.C. line is simply enormous -- the seven returnees with starting experience average 6'5, 311, and that's including relative dwarf Clayton Stadnik. (The other six average 6'6, 318.)

It's a little bit confusing, then, to see that South Carolina ranked only 37th in Adj. Line Yards. But the Gamecocks weren't as good in short-yardage situations as one would think with this (and Davis') size, and the efficiency numbers were only good overall, not great. The line kept defenders out of the backfield against the run and gave Thompson in particular enough time to pass, but perhaps there's still some room for improvement.

The good news: lines that have seven returnees with starting experience indeed tend to improve.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.12	52	IsoPPP+	105.9	38
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	40.8%	47	Succ. Rt. +	110.6	26
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.8	72	Off. FP+	104.6	15
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.7	13	Redzone S&P+	106.6	38
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.1		ACTUAL	30.0	+9.9

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	19	23	26	16
RUSHING	51	35	43	33
PASSING	12	14	12	17
Standard Downs		10	18	21
Passing Downs		57	57	53

Q1 Rk	16	1st Down Rk	12
Q2 Rk	36	2nd Down Rk	30
Q3 Rk	14	3rd Down Rk	64
Q4 Rk	79

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	105.1	2.85	3.58	41.7%	58.5%	20.5%	119.1	5.8%	6.7%
Rank	42	48	94	92	19	45	31	33	65

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jadeveon Clowney	DE				11	34.0	5.1%	11.5	3.0	0	4	1	0
Kelcy Quarles	DT				12	33.0	5.0%	13.5	9.5	0	1	0	0
Chaz Sutton	DE				13	26.0	3.9%	8.5	3.0	0	0	2	0
J.T. Surratt	DT	6'2, 307	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	13	26.0	3.9%	4.0	1.5	0	0	0	0
Gerald Dixon, Jr.	DT	6'3, 325	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	21.5	3.2%	3.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Darius English	DE	6'6, 235	So.	3 stars (5.7)	13	16.5	2.5%	2.5	0.5	0	0	1	0
Phillip Dukes	DT	6'3, 315	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	10.5	1.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	1	0
Kelsey Griffin	DT	6'2, 292	So.	4 stars (5.9)	9	9.5	1.4%	0.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Mason Harris	DE	6'3, 218	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	12	4.0	0.6%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Cedrick Cooper	DE	6'2, 213	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	4.0	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Gerald Dixon (2012)	DE	6'2, 274	So.	3 stars (5.7)	4	2.0	0.3%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Deon Green	DT	6'4, 287	So.	3 stars (5.6)	2	2.0	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Devin Washington	DE	6'3, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
David Johnson	DE	6'1, 275	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Abu Lamin	DT	6'4, 302	So.	4 stars (5.8)
Blake McClain	DE	6'3, 265	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
Taylor Stallworth	DT	6'2, 293	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

7. More replaceable than you think?

Ask a casual college football fan to name two defenders from last year's South Carolina team, and they would probably name Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles. Ask them to name a third, and if they came up with one, it would probably be either corner Victor Hampton or end Chaz Sutton. A majority of the star power for South Carolina's defense, it seemed, was up front.

But look at the numbers above: South Carolina was 35th in Rushing S&P+ but 42nd in Adj. Line Yards, 14th in Passing S&P+ but 31st in Adj. Sack Rate. From a stat perspective, it would almost seem as if the South Carolina line was more attackable than other parts of the defense.

Now, this could lead to a discussion about either the limitations of line stats or the importance of game-planning -- opponents schemed to take Clowney out of the game as much as possible. And no matter what the advanced stats say, the trio up front still recorded 33.5 tackles for loss. They were still effective.

But you could make the case that losing Clowney, Quarles, and Sutton won't hurt as much as we might think, especially with the returning talent in uniform. First of all, you've got perhaps the deepest linebacking corps in the SEC East. A perceived liability a year ago because of youth, S.C. linebackers came through with six players making at least 20.5 tackles, six making at least 3.5 tackles for loss, and three defensing at least three passes. If opponents were indeed scheming against Clowney and Quarles, the linebackers made them pay for this.

Meanwhile, while there are almost no proven entities up front, there is beef, and there are recruiting rankings. Tackles Gerald Dixon, Jr., and Phillip Dukes go 640 pounds combined, end Darius English made some plays in reserve time last year, and there are three former four-star recruits and six high-three-stars in the list above. So if the big three were more replaceable than we thought, and the level of overall experience is strong, this front seven will probably be pretty solid.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Skai Moore	WLB	6'2, 210	So.	4 stars (5.8)	13	43.0	6.5%	3.5	0.5	4	0	0	0
Kaiwan Lewis	MLB	6'0, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	42.5	6.4%	4.0	1.0	2	0	1	0
Marcquis Roberts	MLB	6'1, 211	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	39.5	5.9%	3.5	1.5	0	2	1	0
Sharrod Golightly	SPUR	5'10, 205	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	38.5	5.8%	6.0	1.5	0	4	0	2
T.J. Holloman	MLB	6'2, 233	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	36.0	5.4%	5.0	1.0	3	1	0	0
Jordan Diggs	SPUR	6'0, 221	So.	4 stars (5.8)	13	20.5	3.1%	4.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jonathan Walton	WLB	6'0, 234	So.	3 stars (5.7)	13	6.5	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Larenz Bryant	SPUR	6'0, 215	So.	4 stars (5.9)	12	6.0	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Bryson Allen-Williams	LB	6'1, 231	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Jimmy Legree	CB				13	48.0	7.2%	5.5	0	3	4	1	0
Victor Hampton	CB				13	47.0	7.1%	5	0	3	9	1	0
Brison Williams	SS	5'11, 208	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	38.5	5.8%	0.5	0	1	3	0	0
T.J. Gurley	FS	5'10, 196	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	25.5	3.8%	0.5	0	1	1	0	0
Chaz Elder	FS	6'2, 199	So.	4 stars (5.8)	12	24.5	3.7%	0.5	0	1	1	0	0
Kadetrix Marcus	SS	6'1, 195	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	20.5	3.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ahmad Christian	CB				12	16.5	2.5%	0	0	0	2	1	0
Sidney Rhodes	CB	5'10, 167	Sr.	NR	13	6.0	0.9%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Moody	SS	6'1, 212	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	5.5	0.8%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jamari Smith	CB	5'10, 183	So.	3 stars (5.7)	9	1.5	0.2%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Rico McWilliams	CB	5'11, 187	So.	3 stars (5.7)
Jasper Sasser	FS	6'0, 192	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Ali Groves	CB	5'10, 184	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Wesley Green	CB	5'10, 176	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Chris Lammons	CB	5'10, 172	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
D.J. Smith	CB	5'11, 189	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Al Harris, Jr.	CB	5'11, 162	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. Opponents knew to run last year; will that be the case again?

The Threat of Clowney helped get into opponents' head on passing downs, so even if South Carolina's sack rates were only good and not great (especially on passing downs), you knew opposing quarterbacks were hearing footsteps, real or imaginary. His loss will certainly hurt in that regard. But the secondary also made plenty of plays with or without Clowney's help, to the extent that opponents leaned heavily on the ground game to find success.

That the secondary was so successful and underrated in 2013 is both a good and a bad thing right now. South Carolina might have the best safety tandem in the East, but last year's top three cornerbacks are all gone. Again, there are a lot of exciting prospects to throw at this problem, including four exciting true freshmen. Plus, while Brison Williams is listed as a safety above, he has corner experience and will likely be a starter, albeit a beefy, 208-pound starter. If one of the freshmen thrives, then there will be enough experience around him to account for his random mistakes. But there's no question that it's hard to see the pass defense as a whole working out quite as well without Legree, Hampton, and Clowney's footsteps.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Tyler Hull	6'2, 206	Sr.	46	37.8	2	15	10	54.3%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Landon Ard	5'9, 172	Jr.	83	61.7	36	5	43.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Elliott Fry	6'0, 150	So.	54-55	9-10	90.0%	6-8	75.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Pharoh Cooper	KR	5'11, 184	So.	16	22.4	0
Shon Carson	KR	5'8, 219	Jr.	8	17.8	0
Pharoh Cooper	PR	5'11, 184	So.	9	4.4	0
Victor Hampton	PR	5'10, 202	Sr.	9	3.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	114
Field Goal Efficiency	40
Punt Return Efficiency	114
Kick Return Efficiency	125
Punt Efficiency	32
Kickoff Efficiency	106
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	38

9. Wanted: return men

Over the last five years, South Carolina has ranked 94th, 75th, 112th, 86th, and 114th, respectively, in Special Teams F/+. It has been a consistent problem for Spurrier and the Gamecocks, and while their overall field position numbers were still pretty decent, they could have been so much better with competent special teams.

Elliott Fry was a solid place-kicker, especially for a freshman, and Tyler Hull's punting was a strength. But kickoffs were an issue, and returns were almost non-existent. Pharoh Cooper came in with a big return-man reputation, but he'll either need to start backing that up or cede that role to somebody else. (That, or his blocking needs to improve drastically.)

South Carolina has too many issues to be a serious national title contender, but strong special teams can cover some issues up. Awful special teams just exacerbate them.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
28-Aug	Texas A&M	11
6-Sep	East Carolina	57
13-Sep	Georgia	10
20-Sep	at Vanderbilt	61
27-Sep	Missouri	22
4-Oct	at Kentucky	75
18-Oct	Furman	NR
25-Oct	at Auburn	8
1-Nov	Tennessee	55
15-Nov	at Florida	29
22-Nov	South Alabama	87
29-Nov	at Clemson	5

Five-Year F/+ Rk	20.2% (14)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	16
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	13 / 3.8
TO Luck/Game	+3.5
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (8, 6)

10. The power of "Sandstorm"

South Carolina is not without its flaws. The Gamecocks are starting over at cornerback and defensive end, and while there is a wealth of experience on offense, the offense's two best players from last year are still gone, and the new starting quarterback hasn't proven he can play consistent ball from week to week yet. This is not a slam-dunk top-10 team and East favorite.

Now that that's out of the way: I think South Carolina will be a top-10 team and should absolutely be the East favorite. First of all, the Gamecocks host Georgia and last year's East champion. And only one of the four conference road games comes against a projected top-25 team (Auburn). From a pure scheduling standpoint, S.C. seems to have the edge here. So if the 'Cocks are good at home (like they were last year), and if they can avoid a random road slip-up, the odds are in their favor.

This year's Football Outsiders Almanac 2014 projects Spurrier's Gamecocks fifth overall, thanks to consistent recent play and stellar experience. They are projected to go 10-2 with a 51 percent chance of winning the division and a 15 percent chance of winning the SEC. There's a 26 percent chance they go 11-2 or better and only a 15 percent chance they go 8-4 or worse. These are aggressive projections, question marks be damned, and I understand why. Few teams have this level of experience, and only one has Steve Spurrier coaching it. Quiet or loud, Spurrier has a chance to do something awfully special this year. And if the 'Cocks play well at home, they'll put themselves in stellar position.

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