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1. Pulling a Rice on Rice
It wasn't quite as extreme, but Rice's 2012 finish and Mississippi State's 2013 finish had similar dynamics.
Two years ago, Rice's once-successful head coach David Bailiff had hit a road block, going just 10-26 from 2009-11 and starting 2012 at 2-6. There was no official "he's going to get fired if he doesn't turn this season around" proclamation, but the vibe was strong. But thanks to both the schedule easing up and Rice improving dramatically, the season did turn around. The Owls won five straight, including a bowl-game romp over Air Force. Instead of getting fired, Bailiff brought a wonderfully experienced squad to the table in 2013 and lived up to decent hype, going 10-4 and winning Conference USA.
CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA
CLANGA CLANGA CLANGA
Mississippi State fans hope there are more than a few parallels, obviously. After generating lots of hot-young-coach buzz, Dan Mullen seemed to have hit a ceiling in Starkville. His Bulldogs went 9-4 in 2010 and finished 15th in the country, but they went 7-6 in 2011, and only a weak schedule allowed for an 8-5 finish in 2012 (complete with blowout losses to Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, and Ole Miss, plus a 14-point drubbing to Northwestern in the bowl).
Things weren't promising in 2013, either. Competitive early losses to Oklahoma State and Auburn were tamped down by the fact that we didn't know how good those teams were yet. A 33-point loss to LSU and far-too-narrow wins over Bowling Green and Kentucky didn't inspire confidence, and while the Bulldogs were competitive in losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, they were still 4-6, needing two late wins to become bowl eligible.
But the light switch got flipped. MSU survived Arkansas, beat Ole Miss in overtime, then, for lovely parallels, destroyed Rice in the Liberty Bowl.
Suddenly, there's buzz. Dan Mullen's no longer on the hot seat; he's expected to field a top-25-caliber team (or close to it) this time around. MSU was young last year, and if you can survive youth, it soon turns into experience. He's got an experienced offense and a potentially spectacular run defense. He's got a laughably weak non-conference slate (along with conference home games against Arkansas and Vanderbilt) that all but assures bowl eligibility, and he's only an upset or two away from his first nine-win (or better) season in four years.
That's the narrative, anyway. Are his Bulldogs ready for the expectations? This is, after all, a team that only reached bowl eligibility because of the combination of a 4-1 record in one-possession games and extreme turnovers luck (plus-4.6 points per game). This supposed top-25 team lost to top-25 (F/+) teams by an average of 16 points per game last year. And while a late surge and returning experience can often be signs of a sustained breakthrough, are we reading too much from the fact that MSU beat Arkansas and Ole Miss by a combined 14 points? Was the late-season surge anything more than the schedule easing up?
The late surge really wasn't a surge at all, and Mississippi State is absolutely benefiting from the West Virginia Effect (an overreaction to a great bowl performance) to a large degree. But considering injuries and youth, the Bulldogs weren't far away from being quite good in 2013, and they're one of the league's most experienced teams this fall.
They might be receiving too much hype, but they're not too many ifs away from living up to it.
2013 Schedule & Results
|Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 33|
|Date||Opponent||Opp. F/+ Rk||Score||W-L||Adj. Score||Adj. W-L||5-gm Adj. Avg.|
|31-Aug||vs. Oklahoma State||8||3-21||L||22.9 - 28.9||L|
|7-Sep||Alcorn State||N/A||51-7||W||22.3 - 18.8||W|
|14-Sep||at Auburn||4||20-24||L||29.7 - 22.9||W|
|21-Sep||Troy||105||62-7||W||39.7 - 8.6||W|
|5-Oct||LSU||17||26-59||L||41.6 - 35.5||W||8.3|
|12-Oct||Bowling Green||47||21-20||W||40.1 - 22.8||W||12.9|
|24-Oct||Kentucky||97||28-22||W||25.0 - 20.8||W||13.1|
|2-Nov||at South Carolina||10||16-34||L||29.6 - 21.7||W||13.3|
|9-Nov||at Texas A&M||23||41-51||L||33.1 - 28.9||W||7.9|
|16-Nov||Alabama||2||7-20||L||17.7 - 17.8||L||6.7|
|23-Nov||at Arkansas||87||24-17||W||36.7 - 27.5||W||5.1|
|28-Nov||Ole Miss||28||17-10||W||17.5 - 16.1||W||4.6|
|31-Dec||vs. Rice||69||44-7||W||48.5 - 9.8||W||10.7|
|Points Per Game||27.7||70||23.0||33|
|Adj. Points Per Game||31.1||46||21.6||17|
2. Schedule matters
Perhaps no team in the country experienced more of a turnaround in schedule strength than MSU did from 2012 to 2013. In 2012, the Bulldogs beat eight teams ranked 57th or worse in the F/+ rankings (average score: MSU 38, Opponent 14), lost to everybody better than that (average score: Opponent 38, MSU 16), and finished 8-5. Despite life in the SEC West, they managed to face five teams ranked 96th or worse and took full advantage.
In 2013, we saw a similar balance. Top-25 teams beat MSU by an average score of 35-19, while MSU beat all teams below that bar by an average score of 35-13. MSU indeed improved -- the better-than/worse-than bar got moved up to the top 25, after all -- by there was still a clear dividing line against good and less-good opponents. A better team took on a much harder schedule and barely survived. MSU even played a decent non-conference schedule, playing Oklahoma State on a neutral field and taking on one of the best Bowling Green teams in recent years.
And no, bowl game aside, the late "surge" really wasn't much of a surge at all.
- Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): MSU 25.0, Opponent 23.5 (plus-1.5)
(actual record: 1-2)
- Adj. Points Per Game (next 6 games): MSU 34.9, Opponent 23.1 (plus-11.8)
(actual record: 3-3)
- Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): MSU 24.0, Opponent 20.5 (plus-3.5)
(actual record: 2-1)
In hindsight, the last-minute loss to Auburn and the tight win over Bowling Green each seems more impressive now that we know how good those teams turned out to be. And before quarterback Dak Prescott -- who originally saw the field thanks to injuries to starter Tyler Russell -- injured his elbow in November, the offense seemed to be finding some traction. That the Bulldogs won late in the year despite quarterback injuries could be one of the bigger reasons for optimism.
(And yes, it feels downright anti-social to tamp down "surge" talks, point out significant turnovers luck ... and then talk up the Bulldogs anyway.)
|FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE|
|Raw Category||Rk||Opp. Adj. Category||Rk|
|EFFICIENCY||Succ. Rt.||44.2%||55||Succ. Rt. +||103.0||47|
|FIELD POSITION||Def. Avg. FP||28.1||30||Def. FP+||101.4||41|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Trip in 40||3.9||93||Redzone S&P+||101.0||58|
|Q1 Rk||27||1st Down Rk||44|
|Q2 Rk||37||2nd Down Rk||38|
|Q3 Rk||63||3rd Down Rk||46|
Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
|Dak Prescott||6'2, 235||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)||156||267||1940||10||7||58.4%||8||2.9%||6.8|
|Damian Williams||6'1, 225||So.||3 stars (5.6)||23||47||279||0||2||48.9%||5||9.6%||4.9|
3. The Dak Show
Looking at full-season numbers, Mississippi State was neither particularly good nor bad at much of anything in 2013. The Bulldogs were pretty efficient throwing the ball (again, an amazing thing to say considering the rotating, banged-up quarterbacks) and showed solid big-play potential on the ground, but a lack of big pass plays and efficient running canceled that out to an extent.
Because of the spectacular bowl performance, there's a pretty clear vision for MSU's offense in 2014, and it centers around quarterback Dak Prescott. He certainly did trounce Rice: 17-for-28 passing for 283 yards and three touchdowns, 14 carries for 78 yards. MSU averaged 7.0 yards per play against the Owls, rushing for 239 yards and passing for 294. It was a balanced, dominant performance ... against a defense ranked 75th in Def. F/+.
The keys for Prescott in 2014 are obvious: stay healthy, and do something against actually good defenses. He was nagged by a foot injury early in 2013 and an elbow injury late, but he was also nagged by the fact that good defenses completely shut him down. He completed 63 percent of his passes at 16.3 yards per completion against Troy and Alcorn State, and he completed 65 percent at 13.8 yards per completion against Kentucky and Rice. In those four games, he had eight touchdown passes and no picks. And he rushed for a combined 293 yards against Bowling Green and Texas A&M as well.
Meanwhile, against Oklahoma State, LSU, and South Carolina, he completed 55 percent of his passes at 9.8 yards per completion with no touchdowns and five interceptions.
He did rush for 103 yards against LSU and 133 against Auburn; his legs are a clear threat. And he's clearly tough enough, as proven when he led a comeback against Ole Miss with a wonky elbow. But we're seeing some "dark horse Heisman!" hype for Prescott, and that won't be justified until he does something, anything, against a good pass defense.
|Dak Prescott||QB||6'2, 235||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)||126||897||13||7.1||6.3||50.0%|
|Josh Robinson||RB||5'9, 215||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)||78||459||3||5.9||5.6||44.9%|
|Ashton Shumpert||RB||6'2, 218||So.||3 stars (5.7)||46||190||3||4.1||2.7||34.8%|
|Damian Williams||QB||6'1, 225||So.||3 stars (5.6)||32||135||1||4.2||4.0||34.4%|
|Nick Griffin||RB||6'0, 226||Sr.||3 stars (5.7)||24||96||1||4.0||1.9||41.7%|
|Jameon Lewis||WR||5'9, 183||Sr.||3 stars (5.5)||13||117||3||9.0||9.8||53.8%|
|Brandon Holloway||RB||5'8, 160||So.||3 stars (5.6)||8||38||0||4.8||4.6||37.5%|
|Aeris Williams||RB||6'1, 200||Fr.||3 stars (5.7)|
|Jameon Lewis||WR||5'9, 183||Sr.||3 stars (5.5)||101||64||923||63.4%||24.6%||49.4%||9.1||142||8.9||114.9|
|Robert Johnson||WR||6'1, 211||Sr.||4 stars (5.8)||58||34||389||58.6%||14.1%||61.2%||6.7||-43||7.0||48.4|
|De'Runnya Wilson||WR||6'5, 215||So.||3 stars (5.5)||48||26||351||54.2%||11.7%||61.8%||7.3||6||6.9||43.7|
|Malcolm Johnson||TE||6'2, 231||Sr.||3 stars (5.6)||48||30||391||62.5%||11.7%||50.0%||8.1||22||7.9||48.7|
|Joe Morrow||WR||6'4, 210||Jr.||3 stars (5.7)||32||18||211||56.3%||7.8%||50.0%||6.6||-23||6.0||26.3|
|Josh Robinson||RB||5'9, 215||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)||18||12||115||66.7%||4.4%||60.0%||6.4||-28||5.6||14.3|
|Brandon Holloway||RB||5'8, 160||So.||3 stars (5.6)||14||7||77||50.0%||3.4%||100.0%||5.5||-20||1.2||9.6|
|Fred Ross||WR||6'2, 205||So.||4 stars (5.8)||14||9||115||64.3%||3.4%||66.7%||8.2||6||8.8||14.3|
|Fred Brown||WR||6'1, 190||So.||3 stars (5.5)||9||5||74||55.6%||2.2%||50.0%||8.2||9||7.7||9.2|
|B.J. Hammond||WR||6'4, 235||RSFr.||3 stars (5.6)|
|Gabe Myles||WR||6'0, 190||RSFr.||3 stars (5.6)|
|Shelby Christy||WR||6'3, 210||RSFr.||3 stars (5.6)|
|Brandon Wells||WR||6'2, 191||RSFr.||3 stars (5.6)|
|Darrion Hutcherson||TE||6'7, 250||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)|
|Jamoral Graham||WR||5'10, 165||Fr.||4 stars (5.8)|
|Ravion Pierce||TE||6'4, 215||Fr.||3 stars (5.7)|
4. An underrated supporting cast ... I think
Looking at full-season averages, there's a lot to like about the skill position lineup. LaDarius Perkins is gone, but he didn't really light the world aflame as a senior. Junior Josh Robinson was both more efficient and explosive than Perkins, and in theory, he could benefit from a full season of Prescott's run threat. (That's if Prescott stays healthy, of course. Yes, backup quarterback Damian Williams has dual-threat potential, but Prescott's clearly more proven.)
At receiver, Jameon Lewis emerged as a lovely No. 1 target, combining decent efficiency (63 percent catch rate) with decent explosiveness (14.4 yards per catch). And of the 10 players to catch at least five passes, nine are back and will be joined by an exciting batch of freshmen (including four-star Jamoral Graham) and redshirt freshmen.
But again, MSU struggled drastically in moving the ball against good defenses, which means these receivers were probably part of the problem. Lewis caught 13 passes for 351 yards (27.0 per catch) against Alcorn State, Troy, and Rice and 51 for 572 (11.2) against everybody else. He caught seven for 111 against LSU, and lord knows having a different quarteback every week didn't help matters.
There's potential here, and the wide array of experience will help. But with the wide disparity of performances between good and bad defenses, it's hard to say how high the ceiling actually is.
|Gabe Jackson||LG||52||1st All-SEC|
|Dillon Day||C||6'4, 300||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||34|
|Blaine Clausell||LT||6'7, 315||Sr.||2 stars (5.4)||29|
|Ben Beckwith||RG||6'3, 305||Sr.||NR||12|
|Justin Malone||RT||6'7, 320||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)||5|
|Justin Senior||LT||6'5, 280||So.||3 stars (5.6)||1|
|Damien Robinson||RT||6'8, 320||Sr.||4 stars (5.8)||0|
|Archie Muniz||C||6'5, 300||Sr.||3 stars (5.6)||0|
|Devon Desper||RG||6'3, 300||So.||3 stars (5.6)||0|
|Jamaal Clayborn||LG||6'4, 315||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0|
|Cole Carter||LT||6'6, 302||So.||2 stars (5.4)||0|
|Jake Thomas||RT||6'5, 300||RSFr.||3 stars (5.7)|
|Kent Flowers||LG||6'5, 298||RSFr.||3 stars (5.5)|
|Jocquell Johnson||OL||6'4, 305||Jr.||3 stars (5.7)|
5. Big, deep, experienced, and not particularly successful
Mississippi State has never lacked for beef under Mullen. This year is no exception. The Bulldogs return five players with starting experience up front (a healthy 81 career starts), and those five players average 6'5, 304, and that's with 280-pound Justin Senior dragging the averages down.
With all-conference guard (and four-year starter) Gabe Jackson leading the way, this line passed the eyeball test. It also saw its line stats fall from 30th in Adj. Line Yards and 29th in Adj. Sack Rate to 75th and 54th, respectively.
The spinning wheel of quarterbacks didn't help. Tyler Russell and Damian Williams were particularly sack-prone; the fact that freshmen and sophomores accounted for more than 20 carries per game didn't help the run stats, either.
Still, the line wasn't nearly as successful as expected last season, and that was with Jackson and LaDarius Perkins. (Was the line the cause for Perkins' mediocre efficiency? Did he just have an off year?) This unit has a bit to prove in 2014.
|FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE|
|Raw Category||Rk||Opp. Adj. Category||Rk|
|EFFICIENCY||Succ. Rt.||41.3%||51||Succ. Rt. +||116.0||14|
|FIELD POSITION||Off. Avg. FP||30.9||51||Off. FP+||105.6||8|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Trip in 40||4.3||79||Redzone S&P+||109.0||27|
|Q1 Rk||23||1st Down Rk||35|
|Q2 Rk||2||2nd Down Rk||3|
|Q3 Rk||30||3rd Down Rk||15|
6. One hell of a D
I'm not really buying the hype on MSU's offense. But it's still easy for me to talk myself into the Bulldogs, because the defense is going to be awesome.
The Bulldogs ranked 19th in Def. F/+, 10th in Rushing S&P+, 18th in Passing S&P+, and second in Passing Downs S&P+ last year, and they return eight of their top nine linemen, five of their top six linebackers, and 10 of 11 defensive backs. Three starters are gone, but the second string returns fully intact. Last season saw the best MSU defense of the Mullen era, and barring a wave of injuries, the Bulldogs will probably have an even better unit this year.
Then again, injuries might not have a significant impact with such proven depth. This defense got better in the second and fourth quarter in 2013, and the depth has only improved this time around.
The pass rush could stand to improve, but this defense's ability to read, react, and swarm last year was fantastic. Can't wait to see what the Bulldogs have in store defensively.
|Rivals||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Preston Smith||DE||6'6, 267||Sr.||3 stars (5.5)||12||36.5||5.4%||6.5||2.5||0||3||1||0|
|Chris Jones||DT||6'5, 300||So.||5 stars (6.1)||13||24.5||3.6%||7.0||3.0||0||3||0||0|
|Kaleb Eulls||DT||6'4, 295||Sr.||4 stars (5.8)||13||17.5||2.6%||1.5||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|P.J. Jones||DT||6'3, 296||Sr.||4 stars (5.8)||11||17.0||2.5%||3.0||1.0||0||0||0||0|
|A.J. Jefferson||DE||6'3, 265||So.||3 stars (5.7)||13||15.5||2.3%||4.0||2.0||0||1||1||0|
|Ryan Brown||DE||6'6, 260||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)||13||9.5||1.4%||2.5||1.0||0||0||0||0|
|Nelson Adams||DT||6'3, 295||So.||3 stars (5.5)||13||7.0||1.0%||1.5||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Curtis Virges||DT||6'3, 315||Sr.||3 stars (5.7)||11||5.5||0.8%||2.5||1.0||0||0||0||0|
|Torrey Dale||DE||6'6, 250||So.||NR||2||2.0||0.3%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Will Coleman||DE||6'5, 248||Jr.||3 stars (5.6)|
|Cory Thomas||DL||6'5, 273||Fr.||3 stars (5.7)|
|Rivals||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Benardrick McKinney||LB||6'5, 245||Jr.||3 stars (5.5)||13||56.0||8.2%||7.0||3.5||0||0||0||1|
|Matthew Wells||LB||6'2, 215||Sr.||3 stars (5.7)||13||39.0||5.7%||6.0||1.0||0||2||1||0|
|Beniquez Brown||LB||6'1, 235||So.||3 stars (5.7)||13||27.5||4.0%||4.5||0.0||0||0||0||1|
|Richie Brown||LB||6'2, 235||So.||4 stars (5.8)||13||27.0||4.0%||3.0||2.0||1||0||0||0|
|Zach Jackson||LB||6'2, 210||Jr.||3 stars (5.7)||13||24.5||3.6%||2.5||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Dezmond Harris||LB||6'4, 230||RSFr.||2 stars (5.4)|
|Gerri Green||LB||6'4, 221||Fr.||4 stars (5.8)|
7. No big plays for you or them
Alabama's defense has built a well-earned reputation for dominance, but the Crimson Tide don't actually make that many big plays behind the line of scrimmage. They just hold you to countless two-yard gains, dogpile your ball-carrier, and wear you down with constant third-and-6s and big hits.
MSU runs a 4-3 defense and doesn't feature nearly as many four- and five-star athletes, but you can see some of the same principles at play here. The Bulldogs had a top-10 run defense despite ranking 73rd in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line), and they had the second-best passing downs defense in the country despite ranking just 78th in Passing Downs Sack Rate. They let you make the first move, then react aggressively and violently.
We should see the same phenomenon this year, especially considering the spine. A defense's backbone consists of its tackles, middle linebacker, and safety. Losing Nickoe Whitley is a blow for the latter, but the tackle position is absolutely loaded, with blue-chip sophomore Chris Jones and seniors Kaleb Eulis and P.J. Jones splitting time. And Benardrick McKinney might be the SEC's best middle linebacker.
Returning linebackers Matthew Wells and Beniquez Brown did show some play-making potential against the run (9.5 non-sack tackles for loss), and the end position isn't bereft of talent. But the middle of this defense is as good as it gets.
|Rivals||GP||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Kendrick Market||SS||5'10, 188||Jr.||3 stars (5.7)||13||52.5||7.7%||1.5||0||0||1||1||0|
|Taveze Calhoun||CB||6'1, 184||Jr.||3 stars (5.7)||12||39.0||5.7%||1.5||0||3||4||1||0|
|Justin Cox||FS||6'3, 190||Sr.||3 stars (5.6)||13||27.0||4.0%||0.5||0||1||3||0||0|
|Jamerson Love||CB||5'10, 175||Sr.||3 stars (5.6)||11||24.5||3.6%||1||0||3||7||0||0|
|Will Redmond||CB||6'0, 182||Jr.||4 stars (5.8)||8||18.5||2.7%||2.5||0||0||2||0||0|
|Cedric Jiles||CB||5'10, 180||So.||3 stars (5.7)||11||17.0||2.5%||0||0||0||0||0||0|
|Deontay Evans||FS||5'10, 205||So.||3 stars (5.6)||13||15.0||2.2%||0||0||0||0||1||0|
|Kivon Coman||SS||6'3, 195||So.||3 stars (5.5)||12||14.0||2.1%||1||0||0||0||0||0|
|Dee Arrington||FS||6'1, 220||Sr.||3 stars (5.7)||3||8.0||1.2%||1||0||0||1||1||0|
|Tolando Cleveland||DB||6'0, 176||So.||3 stars (5.6)||12||8.0||1.2%||0.5||0||0||1||2||0|
|Quadry Antoine||FS||5'10, 225||So.||3 stars (5.5)|
|Jay Hughes||SS||5'11, 190||Sr.||3 stars (5.6)|
|Jahmere Irvin-Sills||DB||5'10, 175||RSFr.||3 stars (5.7)|
|Brandon Bryant||DB||5'11, 194||Fr.||3 stars (5.7)|
|J.T. Gray||DB||6'0, 196||Fr.||3 stars (5.7)|
8. All sorts of depth in the back
Over the course of 119 team previews, I've probably said it at least 25 times: injuries hurt in the present tense and help in the future tense. MSU dealt with all sorts of shuffling in the defensive backfield; 10 players averaged at least 1.0 tackle per game (a decent sign of a rotation regular), and only three of them played in all 13 games. Star Nickoe Whitley missed two games, and the top four cornerbacks combined to miss 10.
Constant juggling didn't prevent MSU from dominating on passing downs, and now nine of those 10 regulars return. Whitley, star of the Egg Bowl who played most of the season with a torn ACL, was an inspirational figure who will be missed. But when he's the only guy you have to replace, it's a lot easier. This secondary is loaded.
This defense is loaded. Defensive coordinator Geoff Collins should have plenty of fun with this group.
|Devon Bell||6'2, 185||Jr.||24||41.3||2||9||14||95.8%|
|Devon Bell||6'2, 185||Jr.||66||61.6||25||1||37.9%|
|Devon Bell||6'2, 195||Jr.||25-26||5-9||55.6%||1-5||20.0%|
|Evan Sobiesk||5'8, 188||So.||15-16||3-5||60.0%||0-1||0.0%|
|Jameon Lewis||KR||5'9, 183||Sr.||19||23.5||0|
|Robert Johnson||KR||6'1, 211||Sr.||4||10.3||0|
|Jameon Lewis||PR||5'9, 183||Sr.||22||2.3||0|
|Brandon Holloway||PR||5'8, 160||So.||2||18.0||0|
|Special Teams F/+||102|
|Field Goal Efficiency||122|
|Punt Return Efficiency||107|
|Kick Return Efficiency||54|
|Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency||109|
9. Leaky special teams
First, the positives: Devon Bell and the coverage team made kickoffs a strength for MSU.
The negatives: pretty much everything else.
The Bulldogs were somewhere between average and awful in most special teams categories, with non-existent punt returns, average kick returns, and some of the worst place-kicking in the country. Never mind that Devon Bell and Evan Sobiesk went 1-for-6 on field goals over 40 yards, though that's bad enough; that they barely made 50 percent of their kicks under 40 yards is terrifying.
When you live in the SEC West, and you don't recruit like Alabama, LSU, or Texas A&M, you have to mind your Ps and Qs on the little details -- field position, finishing drives, etc. Despite a wonderfully efficient defense and solid kickofs, special teams were detrimental to the cause. That can't happen again if MSU wants to approach nine-plus wins.
2014 Schedule & Projection Factors
|13-Sep||at South Alabama||87|
|29-Nov||at Ole Miss||24|
|Five-Year F/+ Rk||5.8% (44)|
|Two-Year Recruiting Rk||34|
|TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*||7 / -5.0|
|Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)||16 (8, 8)|
10. A three-game schedule
It will take some upsets for MSU not to start 3-0 or finish 4-2. Sure, the Bulldogs could get upset at South Alabama (which could have a hell of a defense) or knock off Ole Miss again, but the odds of a combined 7-2 in those two spans of time are pretty high.
So that leaves the three significant contests in the middle. MSU could be every bit of a top-25 team and still lose at LSU and at home to Texas A&M and Auburn, but if the Bulldogs want to make a huge splash this year, they'll need to figure out how to go at least 1-2 in that stretch (which would give them a shot at nine wins in the bowl), preferably 2-1.
That's ... not likely. I don't trust the offense nearly enough to think the Bulldogs can pull that off, and special teams aren't likely to provide an overt amount of assistance. There will be pressure on the defense to play at a top-10 level, and while it might very well do that, I think 8-4 is still about the peak for this team. The path for a special season is clear -- beat A&M and Auburn at home, and you're heading to Tuscaloosa at 8-1 -- but unless the Dak Prescott of the Rice game is the one we'll see in every game regardless of opponent, that's probably not going to happen.