The big 2014 Mississippi State football guide: Fortunes have changed quickly

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1. Pulling a Rice on Rice

It wasn't quite as extreme, but Rice's 2012 finish and Mississippi State's 2013 finish had similar dynamics.

Two years ago, Rice's once-successful head coach David Bailiff had hit a road block, going just 10-26 from 2009-11 and starting 2012 at 2-6. There was no official "he's going to get fired if he doesn't turn this season around" proclamation, but the vibe was strong. But thanks to both the schedule easing up and Rice improving dramatically, the season did turn around. The Owls won five straight, including a bowl-game romp over Air Force. Instead of getting fired, Bailiff brought a wonderfully experienced squad to the table in 2013 and lived up to decent hype, going 10-4 and winning Conference USA.

Mississippi State fans hope there are more than a few parallels, obviously. After generating lots of hot-young-coach buzz, Dan Mullen seemed to have hit a ceiling in Starkville. His Bulldogs went 9-4 in 2010 and finished 15th in the country, but they went 7-6 in 2011, and only a weak schedule allowed for an 8-5 finish in 2012 (complete with blowout losses to Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, and Ole Miss, plus a 14-point drubbing to Northwestern in the bowl).

Things weren't promising in 2013, either. Competitive early losses to Oklahoma State and Auburn were tamped down by the fact that we didn't know how good those teams were yet. A 33-point loss to LSU and far-too-narrow wins over Bowling Green and Kentucky didn't inspire confidence, and while the Bulldogs were competitive in losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, they were still 4-6, needing two late wins to become bowl eligible.

But the light switch got flipped. MSU survived Arkansas, beat Ole Miss in overtime, then, for lovely parallels, destroyed Rice in the Liberty Bowl.

Suddenly, there's buzz. Dan Mullen's no longer on the hot seat; he's expected to field a top-25-caliber team (or close to it) this time around. MSU was young last year, and if you can survive youth, it soon turns into experience. He's got an experienced offense and a potentially spectacular run defense. He's got a laughably weak non-conference slate (along with conference home games against Arkansas and Vanderbilt) that all but assures bowl eligibility, and he's only an upset or two away from his first nine-win (or better) season in four years.

That's the narrative, anyway. Are his Bulldogs ready for the expectations? This is, after all, a team that only reached bowl eligibility because of the combination of a 4-1 record in one-possession games and extreme turnovers luck (plus-4.6 points per game). This supposed top-25 team lost to top-25 (F/+) teams by an average of 16 points per game last year. And while a late surge and returning experience can often be signs of a sustained breakthrough, are we reading too much from the fact that MSU beat Arkansas and Ole Miss by a combined 14 points? Was the late-season surge anything more than the schedule easing up?

The late surge really wasn't a surge at all, and Mississippi State is absolutely benefiting from the West Virginia Effect (an overreaction to a great bowl performance) to a large degree. But considering injuries and youth, the Bulldogs weren't far away from being quite good in 2013, and they're one of the league's most experienced teams this fall.

They might be receiving too much hype, but they're not too many ifs away from living up to it.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 11-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 33
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	vs. Oklahoma State	8	3-21	L	22.9 - 28.9	L
7-Sep	Alcorn State	N/A	51-7	W	22.3 - 18.8	W
14-Sep	at Auburn	4	20-24	L	29.7 - 22.9	W
21-Sep	Troy	105	62-7	W	39.7 - 8.6	W
5-Oct	LSU	17	26-59	L	41.6 - 35.5	W	8.3
12-Oct	Bowling Green	47	21-20	W	40.1 - 22.8	W	12.9
24-Oct	Kentucky	97	28-22	W	25.0 - 20.8	W	13.1
2-Nov	at South Carolina	10	16-34	L	29.6 - 21.7	W	13.3
9-Nov	at Texas A&M	23	41-51	L	33.1 - 28.9	W	7.9
16-Nov	Alabama	2	7-20	L	17.7 - 17.8	L	6.7
23-Nov	at Arkansas	87	24-17	W	36.7 - 27.5	W	5.1
28-Nov	Ole Miss	28	17-10	W	17.5 - 16.1	W	4.6
31-Dec	vs. Rice	69	44-7	W	48.5 - 9.8	W	10.7

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+2.9%	50	+12.1%	19	-2.4%	102
Points Per Game	27.7	70	23.0	33
Adj. Points Per Game	31.1	46	21.6	17

2. Schedule matters

Perhaps no team in the country experienced more of a turnaround in schedule strength than MSU did from 2012 to 2013. In 2012, the Bulldogs beat eight teams ranked 57th or worse in the F/+ rankings (average score: MSU 38, Opponent 14), lost to everybody better than that (average score: Opponent 38, MSU 16), and finished 8-5. Despite life in the SEC West, they managed to face five teams ranked 96th or worse and took full advantage.

In 2013, we saw a similar balance. Top-25 teams beat MSU by an average score of 35-19, while MSU beat all teams below that bar by an average score of 35-13. MSU indeed improved -- the better-than/worse-than bar got moved up to the top 25, after all -- by there was still a clear dividing line against good and less-good opponents. A better team took on a much harder schedule and barely survived. MSU even played a decent non-conference schedule, playing Oklahoma State on a neutral field and taking on one of the best Bowling Green teams in recent years.

And no, bowl game aside, the late "surge" really wasn't much of a surge at all.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 3 games): MSU 25.0, Opponent 23.5 (plus-1.5)
  (actual record: 1-2)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 6 games): MSU 34.9, Opponent 23.1 (plus-11.8)
  (actual record: 3-3)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): MSU 24.0, Opponent 20.5 (plus-3.5)
  (actual record: 2-1)

In hindsight, the last-minute loss to Auburn and the tight win over Bowling Green each seems more impressive now that we know how good those teams turned out to be. And before quarterback Dak Prescott -- who originally saw the field thanks to injuries to starter Tyler Russell -- injured his elbow in November, the offense seemed to be finding some traction. That the Bulldogs won late in the year despite quarterback injuries could be one of the bigger reasons for optimism.

(And yes, it feels downright anti-social to tamp down "surge" talks, point out significant turnovers luck ... and then talk up the Bulldogs anyway.)

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	52	IsoPPP+	102.9	47
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	44.2%	55	Succ. Rt. +	103.0	47
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	28.1	30	Def. FP+	101.4	41
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	93	Redzone S&P+	101.0	58
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	25.3		ACTUAL	18	-7.3

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	42	52	48	34
RUSHING	43	53	72	36
PASSING	54	46	25	42
Standard Downs		53	52	48
Passing Downs		43	49	59

Q1 Rk	27	1st Down Rk	44
Q2 Rk	37	2nd Down Rk	38
Q3 Rk	63	3rd Down Rk	46
Q4 Rk	87

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Dak Prescott	6'2, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	156	267	1940	10	7	58.4%	8	2.9%	6.8
Tyler Russell				71	109	875	5	3	65.1%	9	7.6%	6.9
Damian Williams	6'1, 225	So.	3 stars (5.6)	23	47	279	0	2	48.9%	5	9.6%	4.9

3. The Dak Show

Looking at full-season numbers, Mississippi State was neither particularly good nor bad at much of anything in 2013. The Bulldogs were pretty efficient throwing the ball (again, an amazing thing to say considering the rotating, banged-up quarterbacks) and showed solid big-play potential on the ground, but a lack of big pass plays and efficient running canceled that out to an extent.

Because of the spectacular bowl performance, there's a pretty clear vision for MSU's offense in 2014, and it centers around quarterback Dak Prescott. He certainly did trounce Rice: 17-for-28 passing for 283 yards and three touchdowns, 14 carries for 78 yards. MSU averaged 7.0 yards per play against the Owls, rushing for 239 yards and passing for 294. It was a balanced, dominant performance ... against a defense ranked 75th in Def. F/+.

The keys for Prescott in 2014 are obvious: stay healthy, and do something against actually good defenses. He was nagged by a foot injury early in 2013 and an elbow injury late, but he was also nagged by the fact that good defenses completely shut him down. He completed 63 percent of his passes at 16.3 yards per completion against Troy and Alcorn State, and he completed 65 percent at 13.8 yards per completion against Kentucky and Rice. In those four games, he had eight touchdown passes and no picks. And he rushed for a combined 293 yards against Bowling Green and Texas A&M as well.

Meanwhile, against Oklahoma State, LSU, and South Carolina, he completed 55 percent of his passes at 9.8 yards per completion with no touchdowns and five interceptions.

He did rush for 103 yards against LSU and 133 against Auburn; his legs are a clear threat. And he's clearly tough enough, as proven when he led a comeback against Ole Miss with a wonky elbow. But we're seeing some "dark horse Heisman!" hype for Prescott, and that won't be justified until he does something, anything, against a good pass defense.

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
LaDarius Perkins	RB				137	542	2	4.0	5.1	29.9%
Dak Prescott	QB	6'2, 235	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	126	897	13	7.1	6.3	50.0%
Josh Robinson	RB	5'9, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	78	459	3	5.9	5.6	44.9%
Ashton Shumpert	RB	6'2, 218	So.	3 stars (5.7)	46	190	3	4.1	2.7	34.8%
Damian Williams	QB	6'1, 225	So.	3 stars (5.6)	32	135	1	4.2	4.0	34.4%
Nick Griffin	RB	6'0, 226	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	24	96	1	4.0	1.9	41.7%
Tyler Russell	QB				17	71	0	4.2	3.7	41.2%
Derrick Milton	RB				13	69	2	5.3	3.7	38.5%
Jameon Lewis	WR	5'9, 183	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	117	3	9.0	9.8	53.8%
Brandon Holloway	RB	5'8, 160	So.	3 stars (5.6)	8	38	0	4.8	4.6	37.5%
Aeris Williams	RB	6'1, 200	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Jameon Lewis	WR	5'9, 183	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	101	64	923	63.4%	24.6%	49.4%	9.1	142	8.9	114.9
Robert Johnson	WR	6'1, 211	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	58	34	389	58.6%	14.1%	61.2%	6.7	-43	7.0	48.4
De'Runnya Wilson	WR	6'5, 215	So.	3 stars (5.5)	48	26	351	54.2%	11.7%	61.8%	7.3	6	6.9	43.7
Malcolm Johnson	TE	6'2, 231	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	48	30	391	62.5%	11.7%	50.0%	8.1	22	7.9	48.7
LaDarius Perkins	RB				36	27	248	75.0%	8.8%	38.2%	6.9	-56	6.2	30.9
Joe Morrow	WR	6'4, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	32	18	211	56.3%	7.8%	50.0%	6.6	-23	6.0	26.3
Josh Robinson	RB	5'9, 215	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	18	12	115	66.7%	4.4%	60.0%	6.4	-28	5.6	14.3
Brandon Holloway	RB	5'8, 160	So.	3 stars (5.6)	14	7	77	50.0%	3.4%	100.0%	5.5	-20	1.2	9.6
Fred Ross	WR	6'2, 205	So.	4 stars (5.8)	14	9	115	64.3%	3.4%	66.7%	8.2	6	8.8	14.3
Fred Brown	WR	6'1, 190	So.	3 stars (5.5)	9	5	74	55.6%	2.2%	50.0%	8.2	9	7.7	9.2
Jeremey Chappelle	WR				9	4	45	44.4%	2.2%	0.0%	5.0	-14	2.9	5.6
B.J. Hammond	WR	6'4, 235	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Gabe Myles	WR	6'0, 190	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Shelby Christy	WR	6'3, 210	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Brandon Wells	WR	6'2, 191	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Darrion Hutcherson	TE	6'7, 250	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jamoral Graham	WR	5'10, 165	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Ravion Pierce	TE	6'4, 215	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

4. An underrated supporting cast ... I think

Looking at full-season averages, there's a lot to like about the skill position lineup. LaDarius Perkins is gone, but he didn't really light the world aflame as a senior. Junior Josh Robinson was both more efficient and explosive than Perkins, and in theory, he could benefit from a full season of Prescott's run threat. (That's if Prescott stays healthy, of course. Yes, backup quarterback Damian Williams has dual-threat potential, but Prescott's clearly more proven.)

At receiver, Jameon Lewis emerged as a lovely No. 1 target, combining decent efficiency (63 percent catch rate) with decent explosiveness (14.4 yards per catch). And of the 10 players to catch at least five passes, nine are back and will be joined by an exciting batch of freshmen (including four-star Jamoral Graham) and redshirt freshmen.

But again, MSU struggled drastically in moving the ball against good defenses, which means these receivers were probably part of the problem. Lewis caught 13 passes for 351 yards (27.0 per catch) against Alcorn State, Troy, and Rice and 51 for 572 (11.2) against everybody else. He caught seven for 111 against LSU, and lord knows having a different quarteback every week didn't help matters.

There's potential here, and the wide array of experience will help. But with the wide disparity of performances between good and bad defenses, it's hard to say how high the ceiling actually is.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	100	3.03	3.04	40.4%	71.1%	21.2%	113.1	4.1%	5.4%
Rank	75	51	83	56	48	92	54	51	46

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Gabe Jackson	LG				52	1st All-SEC
Dillon Day	C	6'4, 300	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	34
Blaine Clausell	LT	6'7, 315	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	29
Charles Siddoway	RT				26
Ben Beckwith	RG	6'3, 305	Sr.	NR	12
Justin Malone	RT	6'7, 320	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	5
Justin Senior	LT	6'5, 280	So.	3 stars (5.6)	1
Dylan Holley	C				1
Damien Robinson	RT	6'8, 320	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	0
Archie Muniz	C	6'5, 300	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Devon Desper	RG	6'3, 300	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Jamaal Clayborn	LG	6'4, 315	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Cole Carter	LT	6'6, 302	So.	2 stars (5.4)	0
Jake Thomas	RT	6'5, 300	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Kent Flowers	LG	6'5, 298	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Jocquell Johnson	OL	6'4, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)

5. Big, deep, experienced, and not particularly successful

Mississippi State has never lacked for beef under Mullen. This year is no exception. The Bulldogs return five players with starting experience up front (a healthy 81 career starts), and those five players average 6'5, 304, and that's with 280-pound Justin Senior dragging the averages down.

With all-conference guard (and four-year starter) Gabe Jackson leading the way, this line passed the eyeball test. It also saw its line stats fall from 30th in Adj. Line Yards and 29th in Adj. Sack Rate to 75th and 54th, respectively.

The spinning wheel of quarterbacks didn't help. Tyler Russell and Damian Williams were particularly sack-prone; the fact that freshmen and sophomores accounted for more than 20 carries per game didn't help the run stats, either.

Still, the line wasn't nearly as successful as expected last season, and that was with Jackson and LaDarius Perkins. (Was the line the cause for Perkins' mediocre efficiency? Did he just have an off year?) This unit has a bit to prove in 2014.

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.16	71	IsoPPP+	106.5	35
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	41.3%	51	Succ. Rt. +	116.0	14
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	30.9	51	Off. FP+	105.6	8
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.3	79	Redzone S&P+	109.0	27
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.3		ACTUAL	25.0	+4.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	18	14	14	9
RUSHING	38	10	4	8
PASSING	22	18	49	15
Standard Downs		32	29	69
Passing Downs		2	2	2

Q1 Rk	23	1st Down Rk	35
Q2 Rk	2	2nd Down Rk	3
Q3 Rk	30	3rd Down Rk	15
Q4 Rk	9

6. One hell of a D

I'm not really buying the hype on MSU's offense. But it's still easy for me to talk myself into the Bulldogs, because the defense is going to be awesome.

The Bulldogs ranked 19th in Def. F/+, 10th in Rushing S&P+, 18th in Passing S&P+, and second in Passing Downs S&P+ last year, and they return eight of their top nine linemen, five of their top six linebackers, and 10 of 11 defensive backs. Three starters are gone, but the second string returns fully intact. Last season saw the best MSU defense of the Mullen era, and barring a wave of injuries, the Bulldogs will probably have an even better unit this year.

Then again, injuries might not have a significant impact with such proven depth. This defense got better in the second and fourth quarter in 2013, and the depth has only improved this time around.

The pass rush could stand to improve, but this defense's ability to read, react, and swarm last year was fantastic. Can't wait to see what the Bulldogs have in store defensively.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113.1	2.92	3.13	34.1%	64.1%	18.6%	87.6	4.1%	6.2%
Rank	25	60	45	20	43	73	85	72	78

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Preston Smith	DE	6'6, 267	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	12	36.5	5.4%	6.5	2.5	0	3	1	0
Chris Jones	DT	6'5, 300	So.	5 stars (6.1)	13	24.5	3.6%	7.0	3.0	0	3	0	0
Denico Autry	DE				13	22.5	3.3%	6.5	2.0	0	3	1	0
Kaleb Eulls	DT	6'4, 295	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	17.5	2.6%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
P.J. Jones	DT	6'3, 296	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	17.0	2.5%	3.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
A.J. Jefferson	DE	6'3, 265	So.	3 stars (5.7)	13	15.5	2.3%	4.0	2.0	0	1	1	0
Ryan Brown	DE	6'6, 260	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	9.5	1.4%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Nelson Adams	DT	6'3, 295	So.	3 stars (5.5)	13	7.0	1.0%	1.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Curtis Virges	DT	6'3, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	11	5.5	0.8%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Quay Evans	DT				5	2.0	0.3%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Torrey Dale	DE	6'6, 250	So.	NR	2	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Will Coleman	DE	6'5, 248	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Cory Thomas	DL	6'5, 273	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Benardrick McKinney	LB	6'5, 245	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	13	56.0	8.2%	7.0	3.5	0	0	0	1
Deontae Skinner	LB				11	48.5	7.1%	4.5	1.0	1	2	0	0
Matthew Wells	LB	6'2, 215	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	39.0	5.7%	6.0	1.0	0	2	1	0
Beniquez Brown	LB	6'1, 235	So.	3 stars (5.7)	13	27.5	4.0%	4.5	0.0	0	0	0	1
Richie Brown	LB	6'2, 235	So.	4 stars (5.8)	13	27.0	4.0%	3.0	2.0	1	0	0	0
Zach Jackson	LB	6'2, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	24.5	3.6%	2.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ivan Muniz	LB				2	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dezmond Harris	LB	6'4, 230	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Gerri Green	LB	6'4, 221	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

7. No big plays for you or them

Alabama's defense has built a well-earned reputation for dominance, but the Crimson Tide don't actually make that many big plays behind the line of scrimmage. They just hold you to countless two-yard gains, dogpile your ball-carrier, and wear you down with constant third-and-6s and big hits.

MSU runs a 4-3 defense and doesn't feature nearly as many four- and five-star athletes, but you can see some of the same principles at play here. The Bulldogs had a top-10 run defense despite ranking 73rd in Stuff Rate (run stops behind the line), and they had the second-best passing downs defense in the country despite ranking just 78th in Passing Downs Sack Rate. They let you make the first move, then react aggressively and violently.

We should see the same phenomenon this year, especially considering the spine. A defense's backbone consists of its tackles, middle linebacker, and safety. Losing Nickoe Whitley is a blow for the latter, but the tackle position is absolutely loaded, with blue-chip sophomore Chris Jones and seniors Kaleb Eulis and P.J. Jones splitting time. And Benardrick McKinney might be the SEC's best middle linebacker.

Returning linebackers Matthew Wells and Beniquez Brown did show some play-making potential against the run (9.5 non-sack tackles for loss), and the end position isn't bereft of talent. But the middle of this defense is as good as it gets.

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Kendrick Market	SS	5'10, 188	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	52.5	7.7%	1.5	0	0	1	1	0
Nickoe Whitley	FS				11	46.5	6.8%	1	0	5	2	2	1
Taveze Calhoun	CB	6'1, 184	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	12	39.0	5.7%	1.5	0	3	4	1	0
Justin Cox	FS	6'3, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	27.0	4.0%	0.5	0	1	3	0	0
Jamerson Love	CB	5'10, 175	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	24.5	3.6%	1	0	3	7	0	0
Will Redmond	CB	6'0, 182	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	8	18.5	2.7%	2.5	0	0	2	0	0
Cedric Jiles	CB	5'10, 180	So.	3 stars (5.7)	11	17.0	2.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Deontay Evans	FS	5'10, 205	So.	3 stars (5.6)	13	15.0	2.2%	0	0	0	0	1	0
Kivon Coman	SS	6'3, 195	So.	3 stars (5.5)	12	14.0	2.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0
Dee Arrington	FS	6'1, 220	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	3	8.0	1.2%	1	0	0	1	1	0
Tolando Cleveland	DB	6'0, 176	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	8.0	1.2%	0.5	0	0	1	2	0
Quadry Antoine	FS	5'10, 225	So.	3 stars (5.5)
Jay Hughes	SS	5'11, 190	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)
Jahmere Irvin-Sills	DB	5'10, 175	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Brandon Bryant	DB	5'11, 194	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)
J.T. Gray	DB	6'0, 196	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. All sorts of depth in the back

Over the course of 119 team previews, I've probably said it at least 25 times: injuries hurt in the present tense and help in the future tense. MSU dealt with all sorts of shuffling in the defensive backfield; 10 players averaged at least 1.0 tackle per game (a decent sign of a rotation regular), and only three of them played in all 13 games. Star Nickoe Whitley missed two games, and the top four cornerbacks combined to miss 10.

Constant juggling didn't prevent MSU from dominating on passing downs, and now nine of those 10 regulars return. Whitley, star of the Egg Bowl who played most of the season with a torn ACL, was an inspirational figure who will be missed. But when he's the only guy you have to replace, it's a lot easier. This secondary is loaded.

This defense is loaded. Defensive coordinator Geoff Collins should have plenty of fun with this group.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Baker Swedenburg			25	42.5	3	7	6	52.0%
Devon Bell	6'2, 185	Jr.	24	41.3	2	9	14	95.8%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Devon Bell	6'2, 185	Jr.	66	61.6	25	1	37.9%
Taylor Earhart			3	57.3	0	0	0.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Devon Bell	6'2, 195	Jr.	25-26	5-9	55.6%	1-5	20.0%
Evan Sobiesk	5'8, 188	So.	15-16	3-5	60.0%	0-1	0.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Jameon Lewis	KR	5'9, 183	Sr.	19	23.5	0
Robert Johnson	KR	6'1, 211	Sr.	4	10.3	0
Jameon Lewis	PR	5'9, 183	Sr.	22	2.3	0
Brandon Holloway	PR	5'8, 160	So.	2	18.0	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	102
Field Goal Efficiency	122
Punt Return Efficiency	107
Kick Return Efficiency	54
Punt Efficiency	66
Kickoff Efficiency	23
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	109

9. Leaky special teams

First, the positives: Devon Bell and the coverage team made kickoffs a strength for MSU.

The negatives: pretty much everything else.

The Bulldogs were somewhere between average and awful in most special teams categories, with non-existent punt returns, average kick returns, and some of the worst place-kicking in the country. Never mind that Devon Bell and Evan Sobiesk went 1-for-6 on field goals over 40 yards, though that's bad enough; that they barely made 50 percent of their kicks under 40 yards is terrifying.

When you live in the SEC West, and you don't recruit like Alabama, LSU, or Texas A&M, you have to mind your Ps and Qs on the little details -- field position, finishing drives, etc. Despite a wonderfully efficient defense and solid kickofs, special teams were detrimental to the cause. That can't happen again if MSU wants to approach nine-plus wins.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Southern Miss	114
6-Sep	UAB	116
13-Sep	at South Alabama	87
20-Sep	at LSU	12
4-Oct	Texas A&M	11
11-Oct	Auburn	8
25-Oct	at Kentucky	75
1-Nov	Arkansas	53
8-Nov	UT-Martin	NR
15-Nov	at Alabama	2
22-Nov	Vanderbilt	61
29-Nov	at Ole Miss	24

Five-Year F/+ Rk	5.8% (44)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	34
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	7 / -5.0
TO Luck/Game	+4.6
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	16 (8, 8)

10. A three-game schedule

It will take some upsets for MSU not to start 3-0 or finish 4-2. Sure, the Bulldogs could get upset at South Alabama (which could have a hell of a defense) or knock off Ole Miss again, but the odds of a combined 7-2 in those two spans of time are pretty high.

So that leaves the three significant contests in the middle. MSU could be every bit of a top-25 team and still lose at LSU and at home to Texas A&M and Auburn, but if the Bulldogs want to make a huge splash this year, they'll need to figure out how to go at least 1-2 in that stretch (which would give them a shot at nine wins in the bowl), preferably 2-1.

That's ... not likely. I don't trust the offense nearly enough to think the Bulldogs can pull that off, and special teams aren't likely to provide an overt amount of assistance. There will be pressure on the defense to play at a top-10 level, and while it might very well do that, I think 8-4 is still about the peak for this team. The path for a special season is clear -- beat A&M and Auburn at home, and you're heading to Tuscaloosa at 8-1 -- but unless the Dak Prescott of the Rice game is the one we'll see in every game regardless of opponent, that's probably not going to happen.

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