The big 2014 Arkansas football guide: Hogs have to do more than run

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1. An anniversary and an awkward path forward

Fifty years ago, Arkansas escaped life as second fiddle.

Frank Broyles had engineered four top-10 finishes in his six seasons in Fayettevile and had brought his Razorbacks to two Sugar Bowls, a Cotton Bowl, and a Gator Bowl. But with five losses to Texas in six years, they had established a ceiling a little bit lower than they would have preferred. But consecutive wins over Oklahoma State, Tulsa, TCU, and Baylor got them to eighth in the country, and a 14-13 upset of No. 1 Texas in Austin gave them a nitro boost in the polls. They shut out five consecutive opponents to finish the regular season undefeated, won the SWC, and knocked off No. 7 Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl.

And while the AP gave its national title to 10-0 Alabama before the bowls, the Tide lost to Texas in the Orange Bowl, and Broyles' unbeaten Hogs claimed a national title via the Football Writers Association of America, the Helms Athletic Foundation, and others.

Arkansas is justifiably observing the 50th anniversary of this title team, as evidenced by the cover of this year's media guide (PDF). But the dedication to past success will also serve to shine a dim light on the present, on what could have been and what almost was.

Since 1964, Arkansas has experienced plenty of success: four more top-10 finishes under Frank Broyles, three under Lou Holtz, a run of nine- and 10-win seasons under Ken Hatfield. But for most of the 1990s and 2000s, they lived life with potential but little to show for it. Danny Ford and Jack Crowe combined for one winning season in eight years. Houston Nutt brought success (eight bowls in 10 years after two in the previous eight) but never quite enough of it.

Bobby Petrino came to town and changed everything; from 2009-11, the Hogs won eight games, then 10, then 11. In 2011, they landed their first top-5 finish since Holtz's first season in Fayetteville (1977). The future was bright, and the Hogs began 2012 in the top 10 ... with John L. Smith leading the way. Petrino's famous motorcycle wreck and mistress cover-up got him sent out of town, along with most of the Hogs' elite hopes. After winning at least eight games for three straight years, Arkansas has won a combined seven since Petrino left.

(This F/+ progression chart is like the graphical personification of a motorcycle wreck and mistress cover-up.)

After the disastrous "Let's hire John L. for one year and see what happens" plan, athletic director Jeff Long pulled off what was, on paper, a great hire: he nabbed Bret Bielema from Wisconsin just after Bielema had secured the Badgers' third consecutive Rose Bowl bid. He is an accomplished coach with a strong identity -- even if he needs to probably stop talking about tempo and health risks -- and he may eventually find success in Fayetteville.

But it's hard to figure out how that's going to happen soon. Granted, every losing program can find hope after Auburn and Missouri went from a combined 2-14 in conference to 14-2 in a single year. But they were each doing something different and unique, especially on offense. Arkansas is running variations of Alabama's offense and LSU's defense, only without the mountain of four- and five-star talent. His first Hogs team could run the ball quite well but couldn't really do anything else; what might year two have in store?

In 1964, Arkansas bounced back from a five-win season to achieve heights it had never before reached. Can the Hogs pull off even half of that turnaround in 2014?

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 3-9 | Final F/+ Rk: 87
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	UL-Lafayette	86	34-14	W	42.1 - 20.0	W
7-Sep	Samford	N/A	31-21	W	30.1 - 33.3	L
14-Sep	Southern Miss	120	24-3	W	21.6 - 25.8	L
21-Sep	at Rutgers	91	24-28	L	19.7 - 23.7	L
28-Sep	Texas A&M	23	33-45	L	33.1 - 28.4	W	3.1
5-Oct	at Florida	48	10-30	L	16.5 - 33.8	L	-4.8
12-Oct	South Carolina	10	7-52	L	30.9 - 32.1	L	-4.4
19-Oct	at Alabama	2	0-52	L	23.4 - 39.0	L	-6.7
2-Nov	Auburn	4	17-35	L	23.8 - 27.7	L	-6.7
9-Nov	at Ole Miss	28	24-34	L	30.7 - 34.6	L	-8.4
23-Nov	Mississippi State	33	17-24	L	30.5 - 39.4	L	-6.7
29-Nov	at LSU	17	27-31	L	38.4 - 29.2	W	-4.6

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	-1.5%	65	-8.0%	94	-0.6%	83
Points Per Game	20.7	107	30.8	89
Adj. Points Per Game	28.4	68	30.6	90

2. Things fell apart in Piscataway (they always do)

It came against shaky competition, but Arkansas looked legitimately solid out of the gates. They averaged 7.1 yards per play against Louisiana-Lafayette and allowed 4.4 or fewer yards per play in each of the first three games.

The good vibes continued for a while during the Hogs' September 21 trip to Piscataway. Arkansas took a 24-7 lead midway through the third quarter against Rutgers ... and then things went awry. Rutgers scored 21 unanswered points for a comeback win, and after a decent showing against Texas A&M, the Razorbacks pretty much fell apart.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Arkansas 29.3, Opponent 26.2 (plus-3.1)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 3 games): Opponent 35.0, Arkansas 23.6 (minus-11.4)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 4 games): Opponent 32.7, Arkansas 30.9 (minus-1.8)

Against Florida, South Carolina, and Alabama, Brandon Allen completed 28 of 78 passes (35.9 percent) for 285 yards, no touchdowns, and four interceptions. Even against good defense, that's incredibly bad. Meanwhile, the defense that had shown promise early in the year? It disappeared. Over the last eight games, only one team averaged fewer than 6.0 yards per play (Florida, which really doesn't count), and only two averaged under 6.7. Good offenses had a field day (Alabama and Auburn: 7.7 per play), and sketchy offenses found their groove (Mississippi State: 7.1).

The offense rallied late, finding itself on the ground against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and LSU, and the defense was just decent enough to allow the Hogs to be competitive. But while there was technically a rebound, it was from bad to below average. That alone doesn't inspire tons of confidence for 2014.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.10	87	IsoPPP+	96.0	86
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	42.9%	66	Succ. Rt. +	103.0	48
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	30.3	76	Def. FP+	100.4	55
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.0	86	Redzone S&P+	108.0	32
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	20.5		ACTUAL	23	+2.5

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	100	57	49	75
RUSHING	21	28	27	15
PASSING	116	74	81	113
Standard Downs		69	68	74
Passing Downs		40	29	98

Q1 Rk	44	1st Down Rk	86
Q2 Rk	77	2nd Down Rk	19
Q3 Rk	34	3rd Down Rk	49
Q4 Rk	65

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player

Ht, Wt

2014 Year

Rivals

Comp

Att

Yards

TD

INT

Comp Rate

Sacks

Sack Rate

Yards/ Att.

Brandon Allen

6'3, 216

Jr.

4 stars (5.8)

128

258

1552

13

10

49.6%

7

2.6%

5.6

AJ Derby

6'5, 240

Sr.

4 stars (5.8)

19

36

178

1

1

52.8%

1

2.7%

4.6

Austin Allen

6'1, 215

RSFr.

3 stars (5.7)

Damon Mitchell

6'2, 205

RSFr.

3 stars (5.7)

Rafe Peavey

6'2, 205

Fr.

4 stars (5.8)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Alex Collins	RB	5'11, 216	So.	4 stars (5.9)	190	1026	4	5.4	5.0	42.1%
Jonathan Williams	RB	6'2, 223	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	150	900	4	6.0	6.0	41.3%
Kiero Small	FB				40	151	3	3.8	3.0	25.0%
Brandon Allen	QB	6'3, 216	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	22	92	1	4.2	2.4	40.9%
Korliss Marshall	RB	6'0, 203	So.	3 stars (5.5)	17	146	0	8.6	7.4	58.8%
Keon Hatcher	WR	6'2, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	11	140	0	12.7	6.5	100.0%
Kody Walker	FB	6'2, 246	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	6	32	0	5.3	3.6	50.0%
Nate Holmes	RB				6	17	0	2.8	1.5	50.0%
AJ Derby	TE	6'5, 246	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	5	11	0	2.2	3.8	20.0%
Javontee Herndon	WR				4	60	1	15.0	12.8	75.0%
Denzell Evans	RB	6'0, 222	RSFr.	3 stars (5.6)
Juan Day	RB	6'2, 210	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

3. The run game is where it needs to be

Bielema's hire of offensive coordinator Jim Chaney was intriguing. We know Bielema wants to run the ball as frequently as possible, but the pass concepts Chaney employed under Derek Dooley at Tennessee were quite effective; the Vols kept things simple and fast, maintaining low sack rates (thanks in part to smart throwaways) and strong vertical capability. Combine Bielema's run strength with some vertical passing, and you've got yourself quite an offense.

Arkansas had half of that in 2013. The run game was solid and got stronger late in the year; the line created paths, and a pair of big, young backs (Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams) both took advantage of blocking and showed some explosiveness in the open field. With Collins and Williams back, along with six players with starting experience, there's every reason to believe Arkansas will have a top-20 run game. Collins and Williams combined for nearly 30 carries and 160 yards per game, and converted halfback Kody Walker should be able to do a reasonable Kiero Small impression at fullback. The Hogs have size, experience, and solid speed.

This is good. But sometimes you have to pass.

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Javontee Herndon	WR				61	31	437	50.8%	22.5%	45.1%	7.2	11	6.5	61.2
Keon Hatcher	WR	6'2, 210	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	51	27	346	52.9%	18.8%	34.9%	6.8	-17	8.3	48.4
Hunter Henry	TE	6'6, 251	So.	4 stars (5.9)	49	28	409	57.1%	18.1%	62.5%	8.3	48	9.0	57.3
Julian Horton	WR				29	12	141	41.4%	10.7%	40.7%	4.9	-45	4.6	19.7
Kiero Small	FB				25	19	128	76.0%	9.2%	59.1%	5.1	-84	5.8	17.9
Alex Collins	RB	5'11, 216	So.	4 stars (5.9)	14	11	63	78.6%	5.2%	22.2%	4.5	-58	9.6	8.8
Demetrius Wilson (2012)	WR	6'3, 186	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	13	9	117	69.2%	3.0%	53.8%	9.0	N/A	8.9	21.8
Eric Hawkins	WR	6'0, 180	So.	3 stars (5.5)	10	3	32	30.0%	3.7%	0.0%	3.2	-25	2.0	4.5
Jeremy Sprinkle	TE	6'6, 237	So.	3 stars (5.5)	10	4	68	40.0%	3.7%	70.0%	6.8	5	7.0	9.5
Jonathan Williams	RB	6'2, 223	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	9	7	72	77.8%	3.3%	22.2%	8.0	-5	8.9	10.1
D'Arthur Cowan	WR	6'3, 186	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	7	4	26	57.1%	2.6%	28.6%	3.7	-26	5.3	3.6
Mitchell Loewen	TE	6'4, 269	Jr.	NR	4	2	29	50.0%	1.5%	75.0%	7.3	1	6.7	4.1
Austin Tate	TE				1	1	7	100.0%	0.4%	100.0%	7.0	-3	3.9	1.0
AJ Derby	TE	6'5, 246	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)
Cody Hollister	WR	6'4, 208	So.	2 stars (5.4)
Jojo Robinson	WR	6'0, 185	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

4. Run doesn't matter without pass

In theory, everything works together. Having a strength that opponents need to address -- in this case, a powerful run game -- means opponents can't exploit your weaknesses quite as well. But despite both a relentless focus on the run and reasonable success with it, Arkansas couldn't even pretend to throw the ball in 2013.

Even in the final three games, when the run clicked pretty well, Brandon Allen raised his completion rate to 60 percent but averaged just 10.3 yards per completion. There was no play-action deep threat, and despite a solid season from freshman tight end Hunter Henry, there wasn't much in the way of efficiency either. This was just a bad passing game.

That bad passing game is less experienced in 2014 thanks to the losses of receivers Javontee Herndon and Julian Horton and bailout option Kiero Small. Granted, those three players combined to average a woeful 6.1 yards per target, which is imminently replaceable, but while there won't be a dropoff, there's no immediate reason to assume a step forward either. Quarterback A.J. Derby has evidently moved to tight end, and senior Demetrius Wilson rejoins the rotation after missing 2012, but aside from Henry, it's difficult to see who is supposed to lead any sort of resurgence in the passing game.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	113	3.07	3.79	42.5%	74.2%	16.7%	205.5	4.1%	0.7%
Rank	18	49	19	29	31	29	9	51	1

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Travis Swanson	C				50	All-American, 2nd All-SEC
David Hurd	LT				23
Brey Cook	RT	6'7, 328	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	17
Dan Skipper	LT	6'10, 315	So.	3 stars (5.7)	8
Denver Kirkland	RG	6'5, 348	So.	4 stars (5.8)	8
Mitch Smothers	LG	6'4, 313	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	8
Grady Ollison	RT	6'5, 309	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	5
Luke Charpentier	C	6'4, 320	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	1
Austin Beck	LT	6'7, 305	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Marcus Danenhauer	RG	6'5, 316	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Cordale Boyd	C	6'3, 298	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Reeve Koehler	LG	6'4, 340	RSFr.	4 stars (5.9)
Sebastian Tretola	OT	6'5, 315	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Brian Wallace	OT	6'6, 315	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Frank Ragnow	OT	6'6, 292	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

5. The line should be fine

You lose two players who have combined for six seasons' worth of starts, including an All-American center, and you have reason to fear a dropoff. But between solid recruiting -- of the 13 linemen listed above, nine were either four-star recruits or high-three-stars -- and the solid track records of Bielema, Chaney, and line coach Sam Pittman, I can't make myself worry about this unit.

The Hogs will have size (average of the six returning players with starting experience: 6'6, 322, which doesn't take into account 340-pound, four-star redshirt freshman Reeve Koehler), potential, and strong coaching. They'll open holes for Collins and Williams and, though possibly for naught, protect Allen. The line is the least of Arkansas' worries.

(Well, running back is the least of the worries, but you know what I'm saying.)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.15	66	IsoPPP+	107.4	30
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	48.3%	111	Succ. Rt. +	94.3	78
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	26.1	118	Off. FP+	95.4	109
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	4.4	88	Redzone S&P+	97.0	70
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	16.7		ACTUAL	14.0	-2.7

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	77	56	78	55
RUSHING	79	70	88	53
PASSING	73	49	71	54
Standard Downs		61	82	22
Passing Downs		63	72	58

Q1 Rk	47	1st Down Rk	52
Q2 Rk	70	2nd Down Rk	86
Q3 Rk	61	3rd Down Rk	49
Q4 Rk	77

6. A drastic tumble

Defensive coordinator Robb Smith was Rutgers' defensive coordinator at a time when Rutgers' defense was pretty awesome. Linebackers coach Randy Shannon may not have been a great head coach, but his bona fides as a defensive assistant are strong. Defensive backs coach Clay Jennings is a Gary Patterson acolyte.

Bielema overhauled his defensive staff for 2014, and on paper, the hires are impressive. But on paper, the hire of Bielema himself was impressive, and that alone didn't result in immediate improvement. This new unit takes over a defense that was inefficient overall (particularly against the run) and ineffective in the red zone.

When you're referring to the Petrino years as your defensive heyday, things have taken a pretty sharp turn for the worst. Arkansas reached 19th in Def. F/+ in 2010 and remained in the top 50 in 2011 (45th), but the Hogs stumbled again to 72nd in 2012, then 94th last year. A decent September performance kept them out of the triple digits in the rankings, but this was a bad defense.

It was also to some degree a young defense. Tackle Darius Philon, linebacker Brooks Ellis, and cornerback Jared Collins were all regulars as freshmen, and in the back seven, three of the top four tacklers at linebacker and all but one defensive back return. Between the coaching upgrade and the experience, improvement is almost guaranteed. But it's a long way up from 94th.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	95.4	3.37	3.58	44.1%	75.0%	16.2%	123.6	7.2%	8.1%
Rank	80	113	94	109	99	99	25	14	37

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Trey Flowers	DE	6'4, 267	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	11	34.5	5.5%	13.5	5.0	1	2	3	0
Darius Philon	DT	6'3, 283	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	33.5	5.3%	9.0	3.0	0	0	2	0
Chris Smith	DE				12	27.5	4.4%	11.5	8.5	0	1	0	0
Robert Thomas	DT				7	23.5	3.7%	6.0	3.5	0	0	0	0
Byran Jones	DT				12	21.0	3.3%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
DeMarcus Hodge	DT	6'1, 343	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	11	20.0	3.2%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Deatrich Wise Jr.	DE	6'6, 267	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	11.5	1.8%	3.0	2.0	0	0	0	0
Brandon Lewis	DE	6'5, 256	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	8.5	1.4%	2.5	0.5	0	1	0	0
JaMichael Winston	DE	6'5, 264	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	3.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	1	0	1	0
Taiwan Johnson	DT	6'3, 263	So.	3 stars (5.7)	3	2.5	0.4%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Horace Arkadie	DT	6'4, 312	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)
Bijhon Jackson	DT	6'2, 334	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)

7. That's a lot of sophomores

Despite the loss of leader Chris Smith, it's hard to worry too much about the Arkansas pass rush. Trey Flowers is back, and sophomore end Deatrich Wise Jr. showed potential as a passing-downs missile in his freshman year. But this line got pushed around drastically by run blocking and must now replace two of its top three tackles.

Newcomers and the sophomore class will dictate Arkansas' fate in run defense. Flowers and Philon are back, but the next three returning ends are all sophomores (Wise, Brandon Lewis, JaMichael Winston), as is reserve tackle Taiwan Johnson. JUCO transfer Horace Arkadie and enormous four-star freshman Bijhon Jackson, meanwhile, have almost no choice but to contribute early.

It won't be hard to improve on Arkansas' numbers against the run, but there's no guarantee it will happen. Lots of inexperience here.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Braylon Mitchell	SLB	6'3, 231	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	54.0	8.6%	2.0	1.0	0	3	1	0
Jarrett Lake	WLB				11	53.0	8.4%	4.0	1.0	0	3	0	0
Brooks Ellis	WLB	6'2, 237	So.	3 stars (5.7)	12	22.5	3.6%	2.0	0.5	0	1	0	0
Martrell Spaight	MLB	6'0, 228	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	9	18.0	2.9%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Austin Jones	LB				7	13.0	2.1%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Price Holmes	SLB				12	12.5	2.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Otha Peters	WLB	6'2, 226	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	7	7.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Daunte Carr	SLB	6'3, 216	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	10	2.0	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Alex Brignoni	MLB	6'1, 206	RSFr.	3 stars (5.5)
Josh Williams	LB	6'2, 240	So.	NR

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Alan Turner	SS	6'0, 201	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)	12	66.5	10.6%	0.5	0	2	5	0	0
Eric Bennett	FS				12	54.0	8.6%	1.5	0	1	3	0	0
Tevin Mitchel	CB	6'0, 188	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	11	38.0	6.1%	3	0	1	5	0	0
Rohan Gaines	FS	5'11, 186	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)	10	25.5	4.1%	1	0	0	1	0	1
Jared Collins	CB	6'0, 171	So.	3 stars (5.6)	11	20.0	3.2%	1	0	1	2	1	0
Will Hines	CB	6'1, 191	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	7	17.0	2.7%	0	0	1	4	0	0
Carroll Washington	CB	6'0, 180	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	13.5	2.1%	1	0	0	2	0	0
D.J. Dean	CB	5'10, 198	So.	3 stars (5.6)	12	7.0	1.1%	0	0	0	4	0	0
Davyon McKinney	CB	6'3, 200	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	11	3.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kelvin Fisher Jr.	FS	5'11, 193	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Tiquention Coleman	SS	5'10, 196	Sr.	2 stars (5.4)
De'Andre Coley	FS	6'1, 191	RSFr.	2 stars (5.4)
Henre' Toliver	CB	6'1, 192	Fr.	3 stars (5.7)

8. A potentially stout secondary

Clay Jennings probably has the easiest job of the new assistants. He's used to working with deep secondaries in Fort Worth, and Arkansas' defensive backfield is easily the deepest unit on the D.

Thanks in part to injuries (of the seven DBs with at least 10.0 tackles in 2013, only two played in all 12 games), this unit got experience and mostly survived. Or at least, it wasn't as detrimental to the cause as the run defense.

Safety Alan Turner helped to contribute to solid big-play prevention numbers, and while the cornerbacks rotation was constantly shuffled ... again, the pass defense numbers weren't awful. (Just ignore this play.) Experience should make it a strong unit this fall.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Sam Irwin-Hill	6'3, 201	Sr.	46	44.3	1	8	20	60.9%
Zach Hocker			7	45.7	1	2	1	42.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Zach Hocker			50	63.2	34	3	68.0%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Zach Hocker			28-28	8-8	100.0%	5-7	71.4%
John Henson	5'11, 171	Sr.	1-1	0-1	0.0%	0-0	N/A

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Korliss Marshall	KR	6'0, 203	So.	19	22.2	0
Keon Hatcher	KR	6'2, 210	Jr.	9	22.0	0
Javontee Herndon	PR			9	7.4	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	83
Field Goal Efficiency	10
Punt Return Efficiency	101
Kick Return Efficiency	116
Punt Efficiency	68
Kickoff Efficiency	84
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	8

9. Wanted: field position help

In Zach Hocker, Arkansas had a great place-kicker and kickoffs guy. Granted, on the one-third of his kickoffs that weren't touchbacks, opponents tended to break off strong returns, but that's not necessarily his fault. Hocker's gone, which is a problem, but the return game is still the biggest issue. The Hogs needed serious field position help from special teams, and they really didn't get any.

This special teams unit ranked 83rd last year and now must replace easily its best asset (Hocker). That doesn't inspire confidence.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	at Auburn	8
6-Sep	Nicholls State	NR
13-Sep	at Texas Tech	46
20-Sep	Northern Illinois	60
27-Sep	at Texas A&M	11
11-Oct	Alabama	2
18-Oct	Georgia	10
25-Oct	UAB	116
1-Nov	at Mississippi State	26
15-Nov	LSU	12
22-Nov	Ole Miss	24
28-Nov	at Missouri	22

Five-Year F/+ Rk	10.6% (31)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	27
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	-9 / -3.9
TO Luck/Game	-2.1
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	14 (7, 7)

10. Spinning the scheduling Wheel of Destiny

Okay, so Arkansas will be able to run the ball and perhaps defend the pass. They'll probably still struggle to throw or defend the run, and special teams will probably still be more detriment than benefit. Still, after falling to 87th in the F/+ rankings, it isn't crazy to assume this team can crawl back toward the 60s or 70s, thanks to both team experience and a potentially impressive new defensive coaching staff. The 50s aren't out of the question if a new receiving option emerges or newcomers carry their (significant) weight at defensive tackle.

Hooray, improvement! Boo, schedule. Arkansas plays five road games in 2014 -- four against teams projected in the top 30 and one that should probably be projected a little higher than 46th (Texas Tech). Four of their seven home games are against projected top-25 teams.

In other words, improving into the 50s would make the Hogs potentially better than three of their 12 opponents.

So basically, this is one of those improvement-on-paper years; the Hogs will be hard-pressed to improve too much on last year's three wins. If they get to four, they'll have matched in three combined years what they won in Petrino's final season, and I think they'll get there. Their strengths will be strong enough to pull at least one upset. But ... tell me the path to five wins, or six. It's hard to do.

In theory, if Arkansas keeps making solid hires and keeps building experience overall, there will be a breakthrough. While the SEC West might be brutal overall, the Hogs should still be able to expect a seven- or eight-win season in the coming years. After all, just ask Auburn, Missouri, or even Mississippi State how quickly fortunes can change. But any talk of a breakthrough will have to wait until 2015. At least there's an anniversary to celebrate...

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