The big 2014 Auburn football guide: Unpredictable Tigers face brutal schedule

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.

1. Yes, lucky

When statisticians talk about "luck," we’re referring specifically to an occurrence that has a tiny probability of happening again. Sometimes, we can prove luck by examining the correlations; other times, we need only to watch something unfold to know intuitively that it’s a lucky outcome.

The Power Rank's Ed Feng, writing for Grantland, happily strolled into a hornet's nest last week when he said Auburn was lucky in 2013. If you have a general knowledge of college football, SEC country, and the Internet, you can probably imagine what some of the responses to that were like. And because of my own general knowledge of these things, I know that the following carefrontation probably isn't going to connect. But I have to try.

You've got to be able to say this, Auburn fans: We were lucky as hell last year.

I know Aaron Murray might not have scored on Georgia's go-ahead touchdown that preceded the miraculous deflected bomb to Ricardo Louis. I know there were probably calls earlier in the Georgia game that you disagreed with. I know Georgia was rather lucky to be ahead because your team had to settle for an uncharacteristic number of field goals (four of them). And hey, Georgia had recovered two of the game's three fumbles; there's some luck there, too.

And I know Gus Malzahn coached circles around Nick Saban two weeks later in the Iron Bowl. And I know Alabama was lucky to get one second put back on the clock at the end of the regulation, which allowed for Chris Davis to field a short 57-yard field goal and become the first college football player in the sport's history to end a game by returning a missed field goal for a touchdown. And I know the game was tied (thanks to three missed Alabama field goals), and Auburn could have won in overtime anyway. And I know Auburn had the return blocked immaculately well.

I know.

But y'all were lucky as hell last year. You just were. And denying it takes away from what was truly a once-in-a-lifetime series of November moments in college football.

Auburn's final four games of the year were as follows: miracle finish, miracle finish, fun-as-hell shootout, last-minute loss that almost had another miracle finish*. It was one of the most enjoyable, entertaining runs in the sport's enjoyable, entertaining history. I mean, Auburn played in the three best games of the year in a season that had too many amazing games to count. That's incredible.

Florida State may have finished the season on top of college football, but Auburn defined the season and did a delicious job of it.

To take advantage of massive luck still requires quality, and Auburn was still very, very good. You had to be an excellent team to be tied with Alabama in the final second of regulation, to eventually pull away from Missouri and win by 17, and to have an outstanding Florida State squad down in the final minute of the final BCS Championship. Auburn's 2013 season was one of drastic improvement, fortitude, fun football ... and massive, miraculous, never-gonna-happen-again luck. It was all of those spectacular things at once.

* The design for Auburn's final lateral-fest, which set Tre Mason up with a wall of blockers, albeit blockers who were not quite fresh/fast enough to do their job, was perhaps the clearest "Holy crap, Gus Malzahn's a genius" moment of the season for me. Yes, it failed, but the design itself gave it a greater chance of succeeding than any play should with three seconds and 90 yards to go.

2. Defying all odds, good and bad

This ... this isn't supposed to happen.

If you squint, you can almost see a ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

College football is so often staid, with the good teams remaining good and bad teams remaining bad. Changes in fortune happen each year, but they're not supposed to happen every year to one team.

Auburn's five-year F/+ average ranks 24th in FBS, but in the last five seasons, the Tigers have only once been within even 15 spots of 24th. They ranked 39th in 2009, third in 2010, 65th in 2011, 105th in 2012, and fourth in 2013. That's an average shift of 60 spots, one direction or the other, each year.

With what Auburn returns -- on the field and in the head coach's visor -- let's just say that another 60-spot shift would be the most surprising move yet. But if any team can pull that off, it would be the Tigers of the Plains. Just when we think we have a read on what they might do, they go out of their way to make us feel silly.

2013 Schedule & Results

Record: 12-2 | Adj. Record: 14-0 | Final F/+ Rk: 4
Date	Opponent	Opp. F/+ Rk	Score	W-L	Adj. Score	Adj. W-L	5-gm Adj. Avg.
31-Aug	Washington State	53	31-24	W	29.3 - 28.0	W
7-Sep	Arkansas State	90	38-9	W	36.9 - 26.0	W
14-Sep	Mississippi State	33	24-20	W	36.2 - 27.4	W
21-Sep	at LSU	17	21-35	L	32.3 - 25.1	W
5-Oct	Ole Miss	28	30-22	W	30.4 - 19.6	W	7.8
12-Oct	Western Carolina	N/A	62-3	W	47.7 - 16.5	W	13.8
19-Oct	at Texas A&M	23	45-41	W	34.6 - 28.0	W	12.9
26-Oct	Florida Atlantic	73	45-10	W	58.7 - 21.5	W	18.6
2-Nov	at Arkansas	87	35-17	W	32.2 - 24.8	W	18.6
9-Nov	at Tennessee	72	55-23	W	49.2 - 27.7	W	20.7
16-Nov	Georgia	22	43-38	W	43.1 - 33.8	W	16.4
30-Nov	Alabama	2	34-28	W	45.0 - 30.2	W	18.0
7-Dec	vs. Missouri	14	59-42	W	48.8 - 29.3	W	14.5
6-Jan	vs. Florida State	1	31-34	L	45.6 - 16.7	W	18.8

Category	Offense	Rk	Defense	Rk	Spec. Tms.	Rk
F/+	+19.5%	7	+12.3%	18	+3.3%	7
Points Per Game	39.5	12	24.7	49
Adj. Points Per Game	40.7	6	25.3	40

3. The proverbial light bulb

It's safe to say that Gus Malzahn isn't capable of fielding a bad offense. We can talk about the drastic offensive improvement Auburn made between September and November last season, but the baseline was still pretty high. Only once in the first five games did the Tigers average fewer than 5.8 yards per play.

But as Malzahn and his personnel -- some recruited for Malzahn's offense (either when he became head coach in 2013 or when he served as offensive coordinator in 2009-11) and some not -- began to click and understand one another, Auburn became very good, very quickly. In Games 6-9 (yes, against a shaky set of defenses), the Tigers averaged 47 points per game, 580 yards per game, and 8.2 yards per play. And then they got better.

• Adj. Points Per Game (first 5 games): Auburn 33.0, Opponent 25.2 (plus-7.8)
• Adj. Points Per Game (next 4 games): Auburn 43.3, Opponent 22.7 (plus-20.6)
• Adj. Points Per Game (last 5 games): Auburn 46.3, Opponent 27.5 (plus-18.8)

Basically, Auburn became Baylor right around the time Baylor stopped being Baylor. As the Bears began to lose star players to injuries and look mortal, Auburn's offense went into hyperdrive.

• Tennessee had allowed four consecutive strong SEC offenses (Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, Missouri) to score 33 points per game and gain 6.4 yards per play; Auburn scored 55 and averaged 8.0.
• Georgia hadn't allowed greater than 5.6 yards per play since the second game of the season; Auburn averaged 6.7.
• Alabama had allowed 34 points in the previous five games combined; Auburn scored 34 itself.
• Missouri had allowed a total of 613 rushing yards to its previous five opponents; the Tigers allowed 545 to Auburn.

It was ridiculous. Yes, there was luck involved in Auburn overcoming a loss to LSU to finish 11-1 and reach the SEC title game. But the offense went to a special place, and the defense was at least good enough to get out of the way most of the time. And they kept getting better, even after the Iron Bowl.

Offense

FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.23	22	IsoPPP+	112.0	16
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	49.8%	9	Succ. Rt. +	122.8	5
FIELD POSITION	Def. Avg. FP	26.6	10	Def. FP+	106.5	8
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	5.1	3	Redzone S&P+	126.1	6
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	22.8		ACTUAL	19	-3.8

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	11	7	5	4
RUSHING	1	2	2	1
PASSING	108	16	57	88
Standard Downs		7	5	28
Passing Downs		9	28	2

Q1 Rk	6	1st Down Rk	5
Q2 Rk	2	2nd Down Rk	7
Q3 Rk	12	3rd Down Rk	4
Q4 Rk	6

4. Whose running game will be better than Auburn's?

Every time Tre Mason touched the ball in 2013, he was picking rocks from the dam. Each time he scraped away, the dam got closer to breaking, and as a half wore on, this extreme efficiency back turned into one capable of bigger and bigger plays. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry in the first quarter, then 7.5 in the second. He averaged 4.8 in the third, then 5.5 in the fourth. He was a dam buster, and he was a Heisman finalist because of it.

On a per-carry basis, though, his backups, Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant, were even better. While Mason averaged 5.7 yards per carry, these two averaged 8.0; Mason averaged a touchdown every 13.8 carries; Artis-Payne and Grant scored one every 13.1. They were even deadlier in the open field, and they got there with higher frequency.

There's nothing saying these two (or blue-chip freshman Roc Thomas, or redshirt freshman Peyton Barber, or whoever is carrying the ball on a consistent basis) will be as astonishingly consistent as Mason; there's nothing saying this new batch will do as well on a down-for-down basis. But when you look at last season's numbers, and you look at the pedigree (statistics or recruiting) of this year's corps of backs, it's somehow hard to make yourself think Auburn will miss Mason all that much.

You know, Tre Mason, the guy who rushed for 663 yards in the last three games of the year, against defenses that ranked third, 27th, and fourth, respectively, in Rushing S&P+. They might not miss him. And with four healthy linemen returning with starting experience (99 career starts minus those of injured Alex Kozan), you could make the case that the loss of dominant left tackle Greg Robinson can be overcome as well. That's how deep and experienced this offense is.

Assuming quarterback Nick Marshall stays out of trouble from here on out (he won't start the Arkansas game because of a marijuana citation), and assuming opponents don't suddenly find a magic bullet, this run game should be devastating. And with a tempo notorious enough to have its own billboard, there's reason to believe that Auburn's 2014 offense will be a lot more like that of November 2013 than September (or even October).

Quarterback

Note: players in bold below are 2014 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.

Player	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Nick Marshall	6'1, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	142	239	1976	14	6	59.4%	19	7.4%	7.2
Jeremy Johnson	6'5, 230	So.	4 stars (5.9)	29	41	422	6	2	70.7%	0	0.0%	10.3
Jonathan Wallace	6'2, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	2	4	24	0	0	50.0%	0	0.0%	6.0
Sean White	6'0, 200	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)

Running Back

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Carry	Opp. Rate
Tre Mason	RB				317	1816	23	5.7	4.3	44.2%
Nick Marshall	QB	6'1, 210	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	153	1193	12	7.8	6.6	56.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne	RB	5'11, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	91	610	6	6.7	6.2	46.2%
Corey Grant	RB	5'11, 205	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	66	647	6	9.8	9.4	57.6%
Ricardo Louis	WR	6'2, 212	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	19	198	0	10.4	11.0	57.9%
Chandler Shakespeare	RB				12	69	0	5.8	5.5	41.7%
Kiehl Frazier	DB				10	34	0	3.4	3.1	20.0%
Jonathan Wallace	QB	6'2, 207	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	9	49	0	5.4	3.3	66.7%
Jeremy Johnson	QB	6'5, 230	So.	4 stars (5.9)	7	47	0	6.7	4.8	57.1%
Johnathan Ford	DB	6'0, 199	So.	4 stars (5.8)	6	73	1	12.2	18.8	50.0%
Peyton Barber	RB	5'11, 225	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Roc Thomas	RB	5'10, 193	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)

Receiving Corps

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Targets	Catches	Yards	Catch Rate	Target Rate	%SD	Yds/ Target	NEY	Real Yds/ Target	RYPR
Sammie Coates	WR	6'2, 201	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	80	42	902	52.5%	29.3%	47.3%	11.3	335	10.8	138.4
Ricardo Louis	WR	6'2, 212	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	44	28	325	63.6%	16.1%	63.9%	7.4	-16	9.1	49.9
Marcus Davis	WR	5'9, 180	So.	3 stars (5.7)	33	23	217	69.7%	12.1%	39.3%	6.6	-51	6.2	33.3
Quan Bray	WR	5'10, 195	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	30	23	205	76.7%	11.0%	66.7%	6.8	-51	8.8	31.5
C.J. Uzomah	TE	6'5, 264	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	19	11	172	57.9%	7.0%	37.5%	9.1	31	9.1	26.4
Tre Mason	RB				13	12	133	92.3%	4.8%	27.3%	10.2	10	11.2	20.4
Trovon Reed	WR				10	9	98	90.0%	3.7%	75.0%	9.8	5	9.8	15.0
Jay Prosch	FB				9	5	95	55.6%	3.3%	66.7%	10.6	30	10.7	14.6
Melvin Ray	WR	6'3, 207	Jr.	4 stars (5.9)	9	5	108	55.6%	3.3%	33.3%	12.0	43	16.6	16.6
Tony Stevens	WR	6'4, 198	So.	4 stars (5.9)	8	5	68	62.5%	2.9%	33.3%	8.5	7	7.6	10.4
Jaylon Denson	WR	6'3, 218	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	7	3	45	42.9%	2.6%	57.1%	6.4	-1	6.4	6.9
Corey Grant	RB	5'11, 205	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	5	4	8	80.0%	1.8%	60.0%	1.6	-36	1.4	1.2
Brandon Fulse	TE	6'4, 258	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	4	1	5	25.0%	1.5%	0.0%	1.3	-17	2.2	0.8
Cameron Artis-Payne	RB	5'11, 210	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	1	1	4	100.0%	0.4%	0.0%	4.0	-6	1.8	0.6
Gage Batten	FB	6'0, 242	So.	NR
D'haquille Williams	WR	6'2, 216	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)
Stanton Truitt	WR	5'9, 175	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

5. The passing game could still improve

Nick Marshall got better. Through seven games, the one-time Georgia defensive back had completed only 57 percent of his passes with six touchdowns, four interceptions, and three games with a passer rating under 111.0. He was asked to throw a total of only 16 passes against FAU, Arkansas, and Tennessee, and while the running game was good enough for Auburn to win those games by an average of 28 points, he was still a complete mystery down the stretch.

But he threw for 229 yards against Georgia (granted, 73 came on a miracle completion), produced a passer rating of 160.9 against Alabama and 212.6 against Missouri, and threw for 217 yards against Florida State in the national title game. The offense and the threat of the run game helped to give him easy throws, but he seemed to improve as a true passer, as well.

That will need to continue. It's hard to poke holes in the Auburn offense, but the Tigers were reliant on big plays instead of efficiency on passing downs. When they had to pass, they were only good at it, not great. To have a great offense overall, passing must hit a baseline that Auburn only sometimes hit.

Yes, this is nitpicking. This offense will be too good for most defenses as is. But Marshall still has room to grow; returning last year's top five targets (including big-play No. 1 target Sammie Coates) won't hurt.

Offensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	131	3.84	3.8	48.4%	84.5%	12.1%	75.2	6.8%	7.8%
Rank	2	2	18	6	3	3	102	107	78

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	Career Starts	Honors/Notes
Reese Dismukes	C	6'3, 295	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	37	1st All-SEC
Greg Robinson	LT				25	1st All-SEC
Chad Slade	RG	6'5, 315	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	36
Alex Kozan	LG	6'4, 300	So.	4 stars (5.8)	14
Patrick Miller	LT	6'7, 289	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	14
Avery Young	RT	6'6, 315	So.	4 stars (5.9)	12
Tunde Fariyike	C				2
Devonte Danzey	LG	6'4, 296	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	0
Shon Coleman	LT	6'6, 310	So.	5 stars (6.1)	0
Jordan Diamond	RG	6'6, 318	So.	4 stars (5.8)	0
Will Adams	RG	6'7, 296	So.	3 stars (5.6)	0
Deon Mix	LG	6'4, 298	RSFr.	4 stars (5.8)
Xavier Dampeer	C	6'2, 296	Jr.	3 stars (5.5)
Braden Smith	OL	6'6, 299	Fr.	4 stars (6.0)

Defense

FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
	Raw Category		Rk	Opp. Adj. Category		Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS	IsoPPP	1.21	91	IsoPPP+	102.4	50
EFFICIENCY	Succ. Rt.	43.3%	77	Succ. Rt. +	110.4	27
FIELD POSITION	Off. Avg. FP	29.6	77	Off. FP+	102.5	32
FINISHING DRIVES	Pts. Per Trip in 40	3.9	41	Redzone S&P+	142.9	2
TURNOVERS	EXPECTED	23.4		ACTUAL	19.0	-4.4

Category	Yards/ Game Rk	S&P+ Rk	Success Rt. Rk	PPP+ Rk
OVERALL	87	26	27	33
RUSHING	63	36	32	40
PASSING	102	19	21	41
Standard Downs		49	42	72
Passing Downs		3	4	24

Q1 Rk	35	1st Down Rk	66
Q2 Rk	24	2nd Down Rk	24
Q3 Rk	23	3rd Down Rk	3
Q4 Rk	45

6. ATTAAAACK

When Auburn leveraged you into passing downs, defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson knew what to do. The Tigers were so good on passing downs -- third in Passing Downs S&P+, 13th in passing downs sack rate -- that it was easy to forget the other downs, the ones in which opponents were gashing Auburn with the run or using the threat of the run to keep the pass rush on its heels.

It was like Auburn had 10 players on the field on standard downs and 12 on passing downs.

Defensive Line

Category	Adj. Line Yds	Std. Downs LY/carry	Pass. Downs LY/carry	Opp. Rate	Power Success Rate	Stuff Rate	Adj. Sack Rate	Std. Downs Sack Rt.	Pass. Downs Sack Rt.
Team	108.1	3.03	3.73	41.8%	70.5%	22.0%	111	2.6%	10.0%
Rank	34	76	105	94	86	27	39	112	13

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Dee Ford	DE				12	23.5	3.2%	14.5	10.5	0	1	2	0
Gabe Wright	DT	6'3, 284	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	14	23.5	3.2%	8.5	3.0	0	0	0	0
LaDarius Owens	DE	6'2, 259	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	14	21.0	2.9%	5.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Nosa Eguae	DT				13	18.0	2.5%	5.5	2.0	0	0	0	0
Craig Sanders	DE				10	17.5	2.4%	3.0	0.5	0	0	0	0
Carl Lawson	DE	6'2, 261	So.	5 stars (6.1)	11	17.0	2.3%	7.5	4.0	0	0	2	0
Montravius Adams	DT	6'4, 306	So.	5 stars (6.1)	11	15.0	2.0%	1.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Angelo Blackson	DT	6'4, 306	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	11	11.0	1.5%	3.0	0.5	0	0	1	0
Ben Bradley	DT	6'1, 303	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)	11	10.0	1.4%	2.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Elijah Daniel	DE	6'2, 263	So.	4 stars (5.9)	11	6.5	0.9%	3.0	2.5	0	0	0	0
Kenneth Carter	DE				9	5.5	0.7%	3.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Jeffrey Whitaker	DT	6'4, 322	Sr.	4 stars (5.9)
Keymiya Harrell	DE	6'4, 262	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
DaVonte Lambert	DE	6'2, 293	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)
Devaroe Lawrence	DT	6'2, 284	Jr.	2 stars (5.4)
Justin Thornton	DE	6'5, 225	Fr.	4 stars (5.9)
Andrew Williams	DE	6'4, 251	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Dontavius Russell	DT	6'3, 285	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

7. Better on standard downs, worse on passing downs?

Auburn returns a healthy seven defensive starters this fall, but the losses could be especially painful when it comes to said passing-downs defense. Ace pass rusher Dee Ford is gone, and his presumed replacement, blue-chip sophomore Carl Lawson, will miss most or all of the season with a knee injury. That leaves senior LaDarius Owens (2.5 sacks), sophomore Elijah Daniel (2.5), and a big load of newcomers to replicate last year's pass rush. Meanwhile, top corner (and Iron Bowl star) Chris Davis is also gone, along with safeties Ryan Smith and Ryan White.

It's not like all hope is lost here; corner Jonathon Mincy is still around, and Auburn signed three JUCO defensive linemen, two JUCO defensive backs, and four- and five-star freshmen at each level of the defense. But if Auburn's passing-downs strength is going to regress, that means the Tigers will have to compensate by improving their standard-downs weakness. That's not a given.

Linebackers

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Cassanova McKinzy	WLB	6'3, 249	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	14	59.0	8.0%	8.0	2.0	1	1	0	0
Kris Frost	MLB	6'2, 234	Jr.	5 stars (6.1)	14	46.0	6.3%	6.0	0.0	0	1	2	0
Jake Holland	MLB				13	30.5	4.2%	1.0	0.5	0	2	0	0
Anthony Swain	WLB	6'2, 249	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	9	22.5	3.1%	1.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
JaViere Mitchell	LB	6'2, 210	So.	4 stars (5.8)	7	10.5	1.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Justin Garrett	LB	6'1, 224	Sr.	3 stars (5.6)	2	3.0	0.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Kenny Flowers	WLB	6'1, 230	Jr.	3 stars (5.6)	3	2.5	0.3%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Toney	MLB	6'1, 243	RSFr.	3 stars (5.7)
Tre' Williams	LB	6'2, 225	Fr.	5 stars (6.1)

Secondary

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Rivals	GP	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Chris Davis	CB				12	63.0	8.6%	2.5	0	0	14	1	0
Ryan Smith	BS				13	56.0	7.6%	0.5	0	3	4	1	0
Jermaine Whitehead	FS	5'11, 193	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	14	54.5	7.4%	2.5	0	2	6	0	1
Jonathon Mincy	CB	5'10, 196	Sr.	3 stars (5.7)	13	50.5	6.9%	1	0	1	14	0	0
Robenson Therezie	STAR	5'9, 212	Sr.	4 stars (5.8)	13	47.0	6.4%	3	0	4	1	0	0
Ryan White	BS				14	45.0	6.1%	0	0	1	6	1	0
Joshua Holsey	DB	5'11, 192	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)	6	14.0	1.9%	0.5	0	1	1	0	0
Jonathan Jones	CB	5'10, 182	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)	5	11.0	1.5%	1	0	0	1	0	0
Trent Fisher	FS				5	8.0	1.1%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brandon King	DB	6'2, 213	Sr.	3 stars (5.5)	4	4.5	0.6%	0	0	0	0	0	0
T.J. Davis	CB	6'1, 196	So.	3 stars (5.7)	3	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
Johnathan Ford	FS	6'0, 199	So.	4 stars (5.8)	6	3.5	0.5%	0	0	0	1	0	0
Mackenro Alexander	STAR	5'11, 203	So.	3 stars (5.7)	4	3.0	0.4%	1.5	0	0	0	0	0
Trovon Reed	CB	6'0, 190	Sr.	4 stars (6.0)
Derrick Moncrief	BS	6'2, 218	Jr.	4 stars (5.8)
Joe Turner	DB	6'0, 165	Jr.	3 stars (5.7)
Kalvaraz Bessent	DB	5'11, 165	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Nick Ruffin	DB	6'0, 174	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)
Stephen Roberts	DB	5'11, 180	Fr.	4 stars (5.8)

8. The power of recruiting

It takes an especially potent cocktail, two parts drastic coaching upgrade and one part tailor-made talent, to pull off the type of impossible turnaround. We drool over Malzahn and his staff, but they got a huge boost from inheriting a set of personnel that, per the recruiting rankings, had a chapel-high ceiling.

Ace recruiting could also help Auburn overcome this offseason's losses. The Tigers loaded up on defenders from both the high school and JUCO levels, and while not all of them will be ready to contribute in their first year, the depth lends optimism; of the three four-star freshman linemen, the three JUCO linemen, the five-star linebacker (Tre' Williams), the two JUCO defensive backs, and the three four-star defensive backs, the odds are good that at least two or three of them will be ready to make a difference. Add them, plus some blue-chip sophomores (tackle Montravius Adams, for instance) to the known quantities -- the Gabe Wrights and Cassanova McKinzys and Kris Frosts and Jermaine Whiteheads and Jonathon Mincys -- and you've got a defense that could improve even while the pass rush regresses.

Special Teams

Punter	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Punts	Avg	TB	FC	I20	FC/I20 Ratio
Steven Clark			56	42.6	4	26	26	92.9%

Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Kickoffs	Avg	TB	OOB	TB%
Cody Parkey			98	64.3	69	1	70.4%

Place-Kicker	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	PAT	FG (0-39)	Pct	FG (40+)	Pct
Cody Parkey			66-67	9-11	81.8%	6-10	60.0%

Returner	Pos.	Ht, Wt	2014 Year	Returns	Avg.	TD
Tre Mason	KR			15	26.3	1
Quan Bray	KR	5'10, 195	Sr.	14	23.6	0
Chris Davis	PR			17	18.7	1
Quan Bray	PR	5'10, 195	Sr.	12	5.1	0

Category	Rk
Special Teams F/+	7
Field Goal Efficiency	50
Punt Return Efficiency	14
Kick Return Efficiency	14
Punt Efficiency	19
Kickoff Efficiency	86
Opponents' Field Goal Efficiency	66

9. A devastating special teams unit devastated

Okay, "devastated" might be harsh, but one of the 10 best special teams units in the country gets a pretty serious makeover in 2014. Cody Parkey, a good but replaceable kicker, is gone. Steven Clark, one of the deadliest punters and most automatic fair catches in the country, is, too. So are Tre Mason (kicks) and Chris Davis (punts), two of the steadiest, most explosive return men in the country.

One assumes Auburn isn't hurting for high-caliber return men (be it Quan Bray or someone else), but Clark was a particularly deadly field position weapon, and Auburn's special teams unit could sink a bit this fall.

2014 Schedule & Projection Factors

2014 Schedule
Date	Opponent	Proj. Rk
30-Aug	Arkansas	53
6-Sep	San Jose State	88
18-Sep	at Kansas State	41
27-Sep	Louisiana Tech	112
4-Oct	LSU	12
11-Oct	at Mississippi State	26
25-Oct	South Carolina	7
1-Nov	at Ole Miss	24
8-Nov	Texas A&M	11
15-Nov	at Georgia	10
22-Nov	Samford	NR
29-Nov	at Alabama	2

Five-Year F/+ Rk	12.3% (24)
Two-Year Recruiting Rk	8
TO Margin/Adj. TO Margin*	0 / 0.5
TO Luck/Game	-0.2
Approx. Ret. Starters (Off. / Def.)	15 (8, 7)

10. This schedule, man

Let's put it this way: Auburn travels to Manhattan, Kan., on a Thursday night on national television, to face a raucous crowd and a team that has specialized in slowing Baylor down more than most. And that's perhaps Auburn's fifth-hardest game in 2014.

Let's put it another way: in this year's Football Outsiders Almanac 2014, Auburn is projected ninth in the country, with the No. 6 offense; the Tigers' projected record: 8-4. At ninth in the country. Auburn is given a five percent chance of matching or exceeding last season's 11-1 mark and, again, at ninth in the country, a seven percent chance of finishing 6-6 or worse.

One can forgive Auburn fans for not worrying too much about odds, of course; what were Auburn's odds of going 11-1 last year, after all? But in 2014, Malzahn should field a wonderful offense and another reasonably opportunistic defense, and his Tigers will need another round of miracles to reach college football's promised land.

What's my own personal prediction? Pssh. After last year, I'm keeping my damn mouth shut in that regard.

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