An 8-5 mark in Week 2 brings me to 16-12, +$280 as we enter Week 3. There are few marquee games this week, but winning wagers on low-profile games spends just as well as prime-time dollars. All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit SB Nation odds partner OddsShark for updated lines throughout each game week.
Houston +17.5 at BYU: Houston almost got dismantled by UTSA due to turnovers, and turnovers don't always translate. Houston can throw as well. I like BYU as a team, but they're likely overrated due to the Texas win.
Toledo at Cincinnati -11: Cincinnati has had plenty of time to prep for this game, and Toledo just lost its starting QB to an ACL tear. Tommy Tuberville's Bearcats will play solid defense against a Rockets team that missed its chance to beat a team from a major conference.
Tennessee at Oklahoma -20.5: Norman, Oklahoma is an extremely tough place to play, with Bob Stoops losing at home only five times in his career. The Vols are young, and Oklahoma -- a squad that looks to be one of the best in the country -- should blow their doors off and win by five touchdowns.
UCLA -7 at Texas AND Under 50.5: I've correctly wagered against UCLA twice in as many weeks, but this is an opportunity for the Bruins to wake up a bit and get healthy against a lackluster team. UCLA is overrated and is not a national title contender in my opinion, but Texas is just flat out bad.
Indiana -7 at Bowling Green: This was much, much better value later in the week, as the line has shifted by a full 10 points since it opened up, but I'd probably bet as long as it remains in single digits. Bowling Green is dealing with injuries.
Arkansas +2 at Texas Tech: Texas Tech is overrated because of its fun offense and hip coach. Its run defense is atrocious, and running the ball is something Arkansas does very well.
Kentucky at Florida Under 51: Kentucky has some decent pass rushers and a secondary with improved fundamentals, while Florida is missing left tackle D.J. Humphries. The Gators also have Alabama on deck, and probably won't be pulling out a lot of new offensive tricks in this one.
Arkansas State at Miami Under 54: Arkansas State runs a lot of plays, but not very efficiently. And they also have some injury concerns -- all of which are on offense. The chance for thunderstorms also adds to the wager. Miami's defense is legitimately improved, as well.
West Virginia at Maryland -3: Maryland won last weekend despite being minus-five in the turnover margin. That close score thanks to the somewhat random nature of turnovers has depressed this line a bit.
Penn State at Rutgers +3.5: The Knights now appear competent on offense, and this game means a lot more to them than it does the Nittany Lions. Penn State cannot run the football at all through two games.
Wake Forest at Utah State -14 AND Under 44: Wake Forest has some serious issues on the offensive line and Utah State is in a nice bounce-back spot here after its loss to Tennessee.
Arizona State at Colorado +16: Arizona State has a suspect defense and is playing its second consecutive road game at altitude. I don't see the Sun Devils getting enough stops to run away and hide.
Iowa State at Iowa -10: Money has come in on the Cyclones all week, but they are overrated now, due to the close score against the Wildcats of Kansas State. Iowa does have some injury issues, but the Hawkeyes will get it done.
Thoughts on games and futures.
Georgia at South Carolina +6: I want to take South Carolina, but I need 7.5 or more points to do so, and I just cannot pull the trigger on anything less. South Carolina's defensive issues are real, but Georgia has not found much success in Columbia of late.
Several of my season win wagers this week could take big steps. Syracuse (Under 5.5 wins) is favored by less than a touchdown at Central Michigan, while Louisville (Over 8 wins) is the same at Virginia. West Virginia (Under 4.5 wins) plays Maryland (Over 6.5 wins), while Texas Tech (Under 6.5 wins) hosts Arkansas. If Iowa isn't going to cover my wager against Iowa State, I'd prefer the Hawkeyes lose outright, as I have Under 8.5 wins for the year, and Missouri (Over 7.5 wins) holding serve over UCF and Virginia Tech (Over 8 wins) over East Carolina would also be appreciated.
Playoff odds -- who does Vegas think gets in?
It's interesting to see the contrast in Playoff picks of many in the national media and the odds on those picks offered by the boys in Vegas (or offshore, as it may be).
Most experts who are projecting who will be in (not who would be in if the Playoff started this week) have Florida State and Oregon, and most seem to have Oklahoma. Vegas odds agree that those three are likely to be in. But the fourth pick has many disagreeing: Georgia or Alabama.
The college football media largely places Georgia ahead of Alabama, thanks to the Dawgs' impressive win over Clemson and Alabama's unsure situation at QB (plus, Georgia's schedule is easier). The odds say that the only team with a better chance of making the playoff than Alabama is Florida State, while six teams have a better shot of making it than Georgia -- including SEC teams Texas A&M and LSU, shockingly.
With whom do you side? Vegas or the media?
If Georgia gets past South Carolina this weekend, its odds will likely be better than Alabama's come next week, because going to South Carolina seems to be the toughest game remaining on Georgia's schedule (though a neutral-site against Florida or hosting Auburn are also in the conversation).
It's also interesting to see how much the odds have changed over the last few weeks. Texas A&M (+275) and Notre Dame (+400) weren't even offered in the preseason. And South Carolina, which was +330 in the preseason, is also off the board. It's also surprising that Ohio State (+400) has better odds than Michigan State (+500). The road loss to Oregon is much, much more respectable than losing to Virginia Tech at home.