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Full 2014 College Football Playoff and bowl projections: Adding 2 to New Year's

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The New Year's cluster adds a pair of devastating power teams and the Playoff foursome gets a little shuffle. A look at the state of all 38 games, below.

Last week's picks, for comparison.

College Football Playoff

Rose No. 2 Alabama No. 3 Oklahoma 1/1/2015 Pasadena, CA
Sugar No. 1 Florida State No. 4 Oregon 1/1/2015 New Orleans, LA

A little bit of a rearranging here after Week 4's results. Oregon slips to No. 4, with injury issues having the Ducks looking likelier to drop a game along the way. Healthy Ducks might be the best group in the country, but let's see if they can heal before returning them higher than No. 4. The others are solid; I don't know who in the ACC can possibly beat FSU, if Clemson couldn't with Jameis Winston out, and both Bama and OU are starting to look frightening.

If the selection committee lives up to its tough talk about valuing strength of schedule, it could be that Week 3 win over Michigan State that ends up getting a one-loss Oregon into the Playoff, at the expense of ...

New Year's bowls

Bowl Date Location Ties
Cotton Baylor Michigan State 1/1/2015 Arlington, TX At-large
Fiesta BYU Stanford 12/31/2014 Glendale, AZ At-large
Orange Clemson Texas A&M 12/31/2014 Miami, FL ACC 1 vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC
Peach East Carolina Auburn 12/31/2014 Atlanta, GA At-large

... that same Michigan State team. The Spartans look more and more like a decent bet to reach 12-1, getting Nebraska and Ohio State at home and, uh, getting to play Michigan anywhere. If they ended up at No. 5, they're a sure fit for the Orange Bowl, which takes the top-rated team from among the Big Ten or SEC (or Notre Dame). But let's say they fall just shy, behind one- or two-loss Aggies.

The other side of the Orange is trickier, since it goes to an ACC team no matter what. Virginia Tech's been the pick here for a few weeks, but the ACC Coastal has begun its dark work of having all seven of its members go 8-4 or so. That means it's either Clemson or Louisville, and if you watched what the Tigers' defensive front did against a rattled FSU last night, you take Clemson, even with a potential loss to South Carolina on the way (no guarantee, by the way).

The two changes this week are unbeaten BYU and overlooked Stanford replacing the "embarrassing" (Steve Spurrier's word) Gamecocks and UCLA, which was kind of just here to represent the Pac-12 South. Geography then assigns the matchups.

ECU is an even easier pick for the automatic mid-major slot this time around, having bombed North Carolina with 70 points and leaving little doubt it would win that damn Coastal if somehow given the opportunity.

(These are four great games, by the way.)

And all the rest

As always, bowl slotting is not based on conference standings. Bowls and conferences base bids as much on potential attendance and TV ratings as they do on team quality.

Bowl Date Location Ties
GoDaddy Northern Illinois South Alabama 1/4/2015 Mobile, AL MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2
Birmingham Memphis Arkansas 1/3/2015 Birmingham, AL American vs. SEC 9
Alamo Kansas State UCLA 1/2/2015 San Antonio, TX Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2
Armed Forces Houston Minnesota 1/2/2015 Fort Worth, TX American vs. Army/Big 12 7/Big Ten
Cactus Texas Washington 1/2/2015 Tempe, AZ Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7 (MWC conditional)
TaxSlayer Iowa South Carolina 1/2/2015 Jacksonville, FL ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Capital One Wisconsin Georgia 1/1/2015 Orlando, FL Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 2
Outback Ohio State Missouri 1/1/2015 Tampa, FL Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8
Belk Louisville Tennessee 12/30/2014 Charlotte, NC ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8
Music City Virginia Tech Mississippi State 12/30/2014 Nashville, TN ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
San Francisco Penn State Arizona State 12/30/2014 San Francisco, CA Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4
Liberty West Virginia Ole Miss 12/29/2014 Memphis, TN Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8
Russell Athletic Notre Dame Oklahoma State 12/29/2014 Orlando, FL ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3
Texas TCU LSU 12/29/2014 Houston, TX Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8
Holiday Nebraska USC 12/27/2014 San Diego, CA Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3
Independence Miami Florida 12/27/2014 Shreveport, LA ACC vs. SEC 10 (C-USA conditional)
Military UCF Georgia Tech 12/27/2014 Annapolis, MD American vs. ACC
Pinstripe Pitt Michigan 12/27/2014 New York, NY ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7
Sun Duke Arizona 12/27/2014 El Paso, TX ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5
Bitcoin ULM* Middle Tennessee 12/26/2014 St. Petersburg, FL American vs. C-USA (ACC conditional)
Detroit North Carolina Indiana 12/26/2014 Detroit, MI ACC vs. Big Ten
Heart of Dallas Oregon State UTEP 12/26/2014 Dallas, TX Big Ten/Big 12 7 vs. C-USA
Bahamas Marshall Toledo 12/24/2014 Nassau, BS C-USA vs. MAC 4/5
Hawaii Western Kentucky Fresno State 12/24/2014 Honolulu, HI C-USA vs. MWC 2-7
Boca Florida Atlantic Ball State 12/23/2014 Boca Raton, FL C-USA vs. MAC 4/5
Poinsettia San Diego State Navy 12/23/2014 San Diego, CA MWC 2-7 vs. Navy
Miami Beach Cincinnati Boston College* 12/22/2014 Miami, FL American vs. BYU
Camelia Ohio Arkansas State 12/20/2014 Montgomery, AL MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3 (ACC conditional)
Las Vegas Boise State Utah 12/20/2014 Las Vegas, NV MWC 1 vs. Pac-12 6
New Mexico UTSA Nevada 12/20/2014 Albuquerque, NM C-USA vs. MWC 2-7
New Orleans UL Lafayette Colorado State 12/20/2014 New Orleans, LA Sun Belt 1 vs. MWC 2-7
Potato Bowling Green Utah State 12/20/2014 Boise, ID MAC 2 vs. MWC 2-7

* Filling another conference's unfilled spot.

Joining us this week are Arkansas, Boston College, and Indiana, crowding out Akron, Louisiana Tech, and Rice, teams that still look like decent bets to reach six wins. Each power conference got at least a little rearranging.

I have no satisfactory explanation for Florida, Michigan, or Texas still being here, but let's give each another game or two before booting.

Your turn

What do you think?