clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING: Week 5's 16 best bets, with 'dogs barking

Welcome back to our college football gambling column. It's called COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING.

A 6-8 mark in Week 4 brings me to 29-28, -$180 as we enter Week 4. There are few marquee games this week, but winning wagers on low-profile games spends just as well as prime-time dollars. All wagers at -110 odds unless otherwise noted. Visit SB Nation odds partner Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.


1. UCLA -4 at Arizona State: The Sun Devils' defense is pretty poor, and they are without quarterback Taylor Kelly. Look for UCLA's defense to make the difference in this one as its offense does just enough.

2. Texas Tech at Oklahoma State -13.5: I cashed in betting against Texas Tech with the Arkansas pick a few weeks back, but am now back for more. Oklahoma State can throw the ball around, and Tyreek Hill is one of the fastest offensive weapons in college football.


3. Tennessee at Georgia Over 55.5: Georgia's offense is still much better than its defense, and even if the Bulldogs get out to a solid lead, Tennessee should be able to score some points in garbage time due to its impressive receiving corps. Georgia has also been running more up-tempo this year, despite not generating much buzz about it.

4. Minnesota at Michigan -11: The Wolverines' yardage totals are much better than their turnover marks. Yardage is typically the more telling measure than turnovers. Even though Brady Hoke has shown to be an ineffective coach, there's a good chance the Wolverines' strong run defense carries them to a convincing victory in their Big Ten opener.

5. North Carolina at Clemson -14: Clemson only scored 17 points and lost to Florida State last week, which could lead to an emotional letdown this week. But North Carolina gave up 70! points to East Carolina. UNC is a bit of a mess, and a night game in Death Valley is not the ideal situation to get right.

6. Arkansas +9.5 v. Texas A&M: Both teams have been preparing for this game for quite some time. Arkansas should be able to stay within itself, play its game, and slow this one down a bit. Is A&M's defense really that improved?

7. Vanderbilt at Kentucky -17: When a line seems too big between bad teams, do not take the points. Go against your gut. Vanderbilt is now a tad overrated thanks to covering against South Carolina last weekend with the help of two special teams scores (not exactly a repeatable skill). Kentucky needs this win if it has any shot to make a bowl game, and the Wildcats do appear significantly improved in 2014.

8. Missouri +6 at South Carolina: I bet against Missouri last week with the thought they would overlook Indiana ... and Indiana won outright in Columbia. That loss by the Tigers creates value this week, and Missouri should be able to spread out South Carolina and throw the football.

9. Iowa at Purdue +10: Is there any reason to like Iowa here? Any motivation for a slow-moving offense with an uncertain QB situation to be motivated to go and blow out Purdue? I think not.

10. Northwestern +10.5 at Penn State: Penn State has won two close games, and Northwestern has lost two. Early in the season, records that have a lot to do with luck can influence lines, and we are seeing that here. The noon game helps the dog here.

11. Stanford -7.5 at Washington: Stanford offers great value thanks to it outplaying USC in just about every way and still managing to lose. If the better team had won the game, the bettor would likely be forced to lay -10 in this contest.

12. Colorado State +10 at Boston College: BC is the team that beasted on USC and ran for 452 yards. But it is also the team that gave up huge chunks on the ground to Pitt. CSU is a good running team, and the USC win for BC has created extra value on its opponents.

13. Notre Dame at Syracuse Under 48.5: Rarely do I bet a college total under a number this low, but Notre Dame's defense seems a but underrated and its offense a bit overrated. And I still do not trust Syracuse's offense to do all that much.

14. Texas -13.5 at Kansas: Wagering against Texas or on the under in its games this year has been easy so far, but expect the Texas defense to totally shut down Kansas' offense and for the Longhorns to win comfortably here.

15. Illinois +20 at Nebraska: This is a sandwich spot for the Cornhuskers. They won their big night game against Miami, and next week they go to East Lansing to try and get some revenge on Michigan State. But first, they play Illinois, a team that can chuck it around a bit.

16. Memphis +19.5 at Ole Miss: Memphis is a pretty good mid-major team, and this is an enormous lookahead spot for the Rebels, as they host Alabama next week with ESPN's "College GameDay" almost certainly coming to town. How focused is Ole Miss really going to be here? Meanwhile, this is Memphis' Super Bowl.

Your turn

What picks are you eying this week?