46-39 Overall (54 percent) | Week 4
1. UConn at BYU -18: BYU was really bad last week against Michigan, and ordinarily I would look at this as a hangover game. But getting beaten so badly should have BYU fired up to get that taste out of its mouth.
2. Arizona State +14 at UCLA: Arizona State isn't even good, but it suffered from minus-23 special teams and turnover points against USC, while UCLA had a net-15 against Arizona.
3. Oregon -7 at Colorado: Oregon might be a shell of its former self, but it is not as bad as the nation believes after its 42-point home loss to Utah. Everything went right for Utah in that game, and this line is bet down too low.
4. Idaho at Arkansas State -19: Idaho is just terrible and I'll jump at the chance to lay under three touchdowns.
5. South Alabama +6 at Troy: South Alabama was overmatched against NC State, but here's betting it can bounce back and beat Troy outright.
6. North Carolina at Georgia Tech -7: Georgia Tech might have gone from overvalued to undervalued, and North Carolina's defense is not as disciplined as Notre Dame or Duke.
7. Old Dominion +18.5 at Marshall: Marshall might again be without its starting QB and running back Devon Johnson is doubtful.
Just want picks of the four biggest games?
8. Mississippi State at Texas A&M -6.5: A&M is not running the ball well, but its passing game is so much better than any that Mississippi State has faced to date.
9. Arkansas +7 at Tennessee: I cannot see Tennessee blowing out Arkansas here, and like the Razorbacks to keep it within one score.
10. Pittsburgh +4.5 at Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech seems like a mess. Pitt represents value because though the Panthers played Iowa evenly, they lost the game.
11. Alabama +2.5 at Georgia: Alabama is better suited to stop pro-style teams than it is spread teams.
12. Ole Miss -7 at Florida: Florida is 3-0 in single-score games and has not played a team close to the caliber of Ole Miss.
13. Baylor -17 at Texas Tech: This is a hangover spot for the Red Raiders having come off the tough Arkansas and TCU games. Expect a slaughter.
14. Iowa at Wisconsin -6.5: Iowa is a public underdog. Public dogs get slaughtered.
15. Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee State PK: Vanderbilt's offense simply cannot move the football, regardless of opposition. And Derek Mason is a bad head coach.
16. Louisiana Lafayette at Louisiana Tech -18: I expect Tech to beat Lafayette by 24+. Tech can really move the ball and score and I doubt Lafayette can keep up.
17. Michigan at Maryland +16: I've bet on Michigan each of the last three weeks and won comfortably, but the Michigan hype is now getting a bit out of hand. Maryland is not a good team, but laying more than two touchdowns on the road with this Wolverines offense is too much.
18. West Virginia at Oklahoma -6.5: I do believe that West Virginia is vastly improved, but Norman is an incredibly tough place to play and this Oklahoma team is already a bit battle tested.
19. Ohio at Akron +3: I took Ohio successfully last week, but the Bobcats are not good enough to be laying points at Akron.
20. Texas at TCU -15: Everyone is talking about TCU's defense, and justifiably so with all the injuries, but Texas' offense had a 17 percent success rate throwing the football. If TCU can get up early, it will make Texas one-dimensional -- the dimension it does poorly.
21. Louisville +4.5 at NC State: NC State is not quite as good as it showed Saturday against South Alabama, and horrible weather from a hurricane is expected this weekend in the Carolinas.
22. Notre Dame at Clemson +1: Notre Dame has not faced a tough road game since incurring all of its injuries.
23. Liberty PK at Georgia State: Georgia State is really not very good and I believe Liberty can get the victory outright.
24. Hawaii +24.5 at Boise State: Boise State is a good team, but it had an insane 31 points worth of turnover and special teams points against Virginia, which pushes this number up a bit.
25. San Jose State +20.5 at Auburn: Auburn is a mess and San Jose State has a competent offense.
When you bet matters: A lesson in taking the best number
I really wanted to pull the trigger and bet these five games. The problem? I missed the opportunity to bet a favorable number. Over the course of the season, missing the good odds especially across crucial numbers like three, seven and 10 will turn solid wagers into losing bets. If this column ran earlier in the week, I would have taken these:
Kansas State at Oklahoma State -6 (it's now -7.5)
Minnesota +7 (now +4) at Northwestern
Fresno State +10.5 (now +9) at San Diego State
Memphis at USF +11.5 (now +9)
Toledo at Ball State +7 (now +5)