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Updated bowl projections, with Michigan knocking Ohio State out of the Playoff

Hello, here are some predictions for every bowl and Playoff game. Your team deserves a better spot.

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The first round of Playoff committee rankings came out Tuesday, which makes this weekly thing a whole lot easier. Not that it's easy, but pairing those numbers with Week 10's results takes out at least some of the blind guesswork. Like, we now know the committee really loves Notre Dame.

So, below are some new picks for every bowl game, based on all that stuff.

One change to the Playoff itself this week, as Ohio State slides down for the moment.

I already had the Buckeyes at No. 4 because I had them winning the Big Ten after losing at Michigan, which is a much better team than its current ranking and record suggest. But Michigan State losing to Nebraska on Saturday was actually bad for the Buckeyes, because it potentially removed the Playoff rankings as a Big Ten tiebreaker safety net in the event of a loss to Michigan. The season's most-hyped rivalry game will likely now be the Big Ten East championship and a total must-win for the defending champs.

College Football Playoff
National Championship Alabama Clemson January 11 Glendale, AZ Cotton winner vs. Orange winner
Cotton No. 2 Alabama No. 3 Stanford December 31 Arlington, TX Playoff rankings top 4
Orange No. 1 Clemson No. 4 Baylor December 31 Miami Playoff rankings top 4

As for who moves up, the Big 12 is still as hard to guess as ever. We got our first look at new QB Jarrett Stidham on Thursday, and it sure suggested the Bears' offense won't fall off. Right now I have the Big 12's big four continuing to eat each other, with Baylor making it out as a one-loss.

New Year's Six bowls
Fiesta Notre Dame Iowa January 1 Glendale, AZ At-large
Rose Michigan USC January 1 Pasadena, CA Big Ten 1 vs. Pac-12 1
Sugar Oklahoma LSU January 1 New Orleans Big 12 1 vs. SEC 1
Peach Ohio State Houston December 31 Atlanta At-large

TCU and Michigan State leave, with shuffling elsewhere. Hey, Ohio State against beloved former OC Tom Herman, if he sticks around! Hey, Bob Stoops talking about the SEC again! Hey, all of America rooting for the Hawkeyes, again!

The New Year's Six matchups are made by the committee, and if the Sooners are among multiple Big 12 teams who've all beaten each other, they could rank best, given their road win at Tennessee likely becoming a high-quality win by season's end. Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU don't have anything anywhere near that good on their out-of-conference records.

I have Iowa losing at Nebraska on a short week after the Huskers have a bye to prepare, then losing to Michigan. The Fiesta Bowl's a good apology for that, right? And yes, the Hawkeyes over Florida for now, because by season's end, Iowa might've beaten more bowl teams.

Thought about keeping Michigan State in here over Iowa, since MSU has a lot of wins against decent teams already, but the committee ranked MSU a surprisingly low No. 7 even before its (controversial) loss to a 4-6 team.

Been riding with Houston as my non-power autobid since Week 2, and this was a great weekend for the Cougars, so no change there. Only kind of bragging.

Bowl (* = filling another conference's bid) Conferences ties, not based on standings
Alamo TCU Utah January 2 San Antonio Big 12 2 vs. Pac-12 2
Cactus West Virginia Arizona January 2 Tempe, AZ Big 12 6 vs. Pac-12 7
Liberty Kansas State Arkansas January 2 Memphis Big 12 5 vs. SEC 3-8
TaxSlayer Penn State Ole Miss January 2 Jacksonville, FL ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Citrus Michigan State Florida January 1 Orlando Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 2
Outback Northwestern Tennessee January 1 Tampa Big Ten 2-4 vs. SEC 3-8
Belk North Carolina Auburn December 30 Charlotte ACC 3-6 vs. SEC 3-8
Birmingham Memphis Mississippi State December 30 Birmingham, AL American vs. SEC 9
Holiday Wisconsin UCLA December 30 San Diego Big Ten 2-4 vs. Pac-12 3
Music City NC State Georgia December 30 Nashville ACC 3-6/Big Ten 5-7 vs. SEC 3-8
Arizona Rice Utah State December 29 Tucson C-USA vs. MWC
Armed Forces Washington State* Air Force December 29 Fort Worth, TX Big Ten vs. MWC
Russell Athletic Florida State Oklahoma State December 29 Orlando ACC 2 vs. Big 12 3
Texas Texas Tech Texas A&M December 29 Houston Big 12 4 vs. SEC 3-8
Military Louisville Navy December 28 Annapolis, MD ACC vs. American
Quick Lane Miami Minnesota December 28 Detroit ACC vs. Big Ten
Foster Farms Nebraska Oregon December 26 Santa Clara, CA Big Ten 5-7 vs. Pac-12 4
Heart of Dallas Washington* Western Kentucky December 26 Dallas Big 12 7 vs. C-USA
Independence Akron* Louisiana-Lafeytte* December 26 Shreveport, LA ACC vs. SEC (C-USA backup)
Pinstripe Duke Indiana December 26 New York City ACC 3-6 vs. Big Ten 5-7
St. Petersburg USF Southern Miss December 26 St. Petersburg, FL American vs. C-USA
Sun Pitt Cal December 26 El Paso ACC 3-6 vs. Pac-12 5
Bahamas Old Dominion Ohio December 24 Nassau, BS C-USA vs. MAC 4/5
Hawaii San Jose State* BYU December 24 Honolulu American vs. MWC/BYU
GoDaddy Northern Illinois Georgia Southern December 23 Mobile, AL MAC 1 vs. Sun Belt 2
Poinsettia San Diego State Central Michigan* December 23 San Diego MWC vs. Army
Boca Raton Temple Western Michigan December 22 Boca Raton, FL American vs. MAC
Potato Toledo Colorado State December 22 Boise, ID MAC 2 vs. MWC
Miami Beach Cincinnati Marshall December 21 Miami American vs. C-USA
Camelia Bowling Green Appalachian State December 19 Montgomery, AL MAC 3 vs. Sun Belt 3
Cure East Carolina South Alabama December 19 Orlando American vs. Sun Belt
Las Vegas Boise State Arizona State December 19 Las Vegas MWC 1/BYU vs. Pac-12 6
New Mexico Middle Tennessee New Mexico December 19 Albuquerque C-USA vs. MWC
New Orleans Arkansas State Louisiana Tech December 19 New Orleans Sun Belt 1 vs. C-USA


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Leaving us: Kentucky, which got blown out by a Georgia that still doesn't know who its quarterback is. Therefore, Kentucky is bad.

Joining us: Indiana, Nebraska and USF. I'm reaching a little on the Big Ten West having a lot of madness, and that is in part to help fill in some holes. There's a chance we won't have enough six-win teams to fill every spot.

Oklahoma State fans, you can be mad at me if you want. I understand. My guess is that if TCU and Oklahoma State are available for the San Antonio bowl, that game picks the closer fan base with the star quarterback, whether you beat his team and hurt his Heisman chances or not.

San Jose State-BYU is a rematch, but life is hard.